Table of Contents

Acknowledgement ..........................................................................................................................1
Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................2
Chapter 1
Introduction ....................................................................................................................................4
1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................4
1.2 Background of Study ..............................................................................................................4
1.3 Problem Statement .................................................................................................................5
1.4 Objective of Project ................................................................................................................5
1.5 Scope of Study .......................................................................................................................5
Chapter 2
Literature Review ..........................................................................................................................7
2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................7
2.2 Journal and Research Papers ..................................................................................................7
Chapter 3
Methodology .................................................................................................................................10
3.1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................................10
3.2 Load Analysis .......................................................................................................................10
3.3 System Design ......................................................................................................................16
3.4 Fuzzification .........................................................................................................................17
3.5 Fuzzy Inference Rule ...........................................................................................................20
3.6 Defuzzification .....................................................................................................................23
Chapter 4
Results and Discussions ...............................................................................................................31
Chapter 5
Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................35
References .....................................................................................................................................36

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
First of all, I would like to say Alhamdulillah, praise to our God Allah S.W.T for the
blessings and giving us a good health to finally able to accomplish this report. I would also like
to express our most sincere gratitude to our dedicated lecturer, Datin Prof. Ir. Dr. Shah Rizam
Mohd Shah Baki for all her guidance, patience and also for being very supportive for me to
finish the report perfectly to fit the specifications and requirements to finally able to make this
report almost perfect and flawless. Also being very supportive in all possible ways, my parents
are not to be forgotten as they bless us with unstopped prayers, allowing us to think clearly and
work effectively from the very beginning to the end, without any loose ends. Last but not least, I
would also like to thank all of our friends, especially from the faculty of engineering that spent
their time commenting and contributing brilliant ideas which is vital to the outcome of this
report, and for their outstanding commitment and support.

FUZZY LOGIC ELECTRICAL LOAD FORECASTING FOR NEXT DAY

PEAK LOAD
Ahmad Faezi Bin Faizol
Faculty of Electrical Engineering
Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) Malaysia
40450, Shah Alam, Selangor
afaezi.faizol@gmail.com

Abstract

Load forecasting has been always been used by power electrical provider to increase
efficiency as well as to meet demand especially during peak hours. This action can prevent
downtime and power outages in the most demanding hours and several methods have been
practiced to forecast load such as expert system and statistical model-based learning. The fuzzy
logic approach is used in this report to achieve similar result. Past load data ranging from
September to October 1992 is analyzed to develop this system. Peak load of one day is defined at
two times, which are 11 am in the morning and 3 pm in the afternoon. The fuzzy logic system
inputs will be consisting of previous two peak loads and day type. A rule block is used to give
result in the forecasted peak load for next day. The Forecasted load output is expected to contain
less than 2% error when compared to the actual value.

CHAPTER 1

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND OF STUDY

This study will forecast peak load for the next day based on past peak load values and
type of day. This is a type of short term load forecasting that also includes forecasting in
terms of weekly, daily and hourly. This data is important for electrical provider companies,
to generate enough electricity in peak hours. Peak load of a given day is observed from past
load data. The finding from past load data shows peak load occurred two times in a day,
which is on 11 am and 3 pm on weekdays. Most of Saturdays are half-day working day,
which gives the same load profile as weekdays before noon. After office hours at noon, the
load graph descends similar to holidays. On Sundays, the load profile is low throughout the
day and the peak load on Sundays is observed to be occurred at night at around 8 pm.

This fuzzy logic system will be simulated on FuzzyTech 5.54. The analyzed data from
load curve analysis is used to assign value for fuzzification, which is a process to convert
numerical value to linguistic variable. These inputs in linguistic variable will be used to
assign fuzzy rules that are important to make decision. The final value will be defuzzified
using the best method that gives least error to ensure the reliability and trustworthiness of the
system.

1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT

During generation and distribution process in electrical power provider operation, the
ability to forecast peak load in a day can greatly improve efficiency and save cost. Regular
maintenance and repairs can be done when the electricity demand is low and the provider can
be ready to generate more during peak hours, but accordingly. A system must be developed
to forecast peak load in a day and taking in consideration environmental factors as well as the
type of day.

1.3 OBJECTIVE OF PROJECT

The objective of this project is
1. To develop a fuzzy logic system to forecast peak load of any given day in a week by
using the best fuzzy logic techniques and approaches that gives the least error.

1.4 SCOPE OF STUDY

The study is based on raw electrical load data from September to October 1992, which
the data is used to design a fuzzy logic system to forecast peak load of a given day, based on
the peak load of previous day and peak load of the same day on last week. The accuracy of
forecasted load is determined to determine whether the system is capable or not to be
implemented on the real world.

CHAPTER 2

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW
1.1 INTRODUCTION

Academicians and electrical engineers around the world have already applied the
artificial intelligence techniques to forecast electrical load. Some of these
accomplishments are already published in IEEE Library Database. A few papers are
found relevant in assisting in the completion of this report. The summary of these papers
are as follows.

1.2 JOURNALS AND RESEARCH PAPERS

Load forecasting with fuzzy logic has been applied worldwide especially in
countries with four seasons, to ensure high efficiency in generation and transmission [1].
Fuzzy logic system in real world application also includes expert system and neural
network to assist in achieving higher accuracy in forecasting. Previous load data is
evidently useful to teach these systems to predict peak load in short term forecasting.
Fuzzy values (linguistic variable) can increase accuracy of a system as numerical method
can largely affected by any value discrepancies. Large or small geographical area also
can contribute to load forecasting as proven by data in Midwest US and the UK [2]. In
[3], type-2 fuzzy logic system is used for load forecasting, which type-2 fuzzy logic
system consist of two steps which is reducer block and then defuzzifier whereas type-1
fuzzy system only has defuzzifier.
It is also woth mentioning that Saleh Ahmadi in [5] presents Iran power
generation and specifically study the Sanandaj Power Network. The case study lists the
factors that is considered during load forecasting including economy and power
disturbance. In [6] Amit Jain in India shows how temperature and humidity can affect
7

load demand in tropical countries. Average day temperature is plotted against average
load, the same is done to average humidity. M.F.I Khamis in [8] shows fuzzy logic
application for a small scale power system. The proposed model can be used to forecast
load one week ahead, every single day in a week is forecasted. The system also
incorporates Data Dynamic Exchange Server to obtain previous load data. In [10] A.R
Koushki simulates that the combination of fuzzy logic and neural network will result in
much more accurate forecasts. The learning algorithm mentioned in this paper is Locally
Linear Model Tree (LoLiMoT) and the results are compared to multilayer perception and
Kohonen Classification and Intervention Analysis.

CHAPTER 3

CHAPTER 3

METHODOLOGY

3.1 INTRODUCTION

Raw data obtained must be analyzed and interpreted before decision is made in designing
a fuzzy logic system. The fuzzy logic system design will follow a project flow chart and
become a complete system once all the processes are done.

3.2 LOAD ANALYSIS

Load data during September to October is tabulated and analyzed graphically do

determine trends in electrical load as well as pinpointing which day and which hour in a day
a load number represents. The data also contributes to which hour in a day a peak load is
achieved and which day in a week electrical load is low or high. Maximum load in these two
months is observed on Thursday 8th October 1992 at 11 am which is 4554.8 MW. Minimum
value of load is observed on Tuesday 29th September 1992 at 4 pm which is only 120 MW.
There was a major blackout throughout Malaysia during that day that contribute to such low
power load.

10

The first week load graph is shown in Figure 1. The load reduces significantly during
Sunday and is also low during Saturday. For the rest of week, the load curve is quite
consistent, except for a drop on Monday at 8 pm.

Figure 1 Load profile first week September 1992

Second week of September load curve shows that the minimum load is also on Sunday as
shown in Figure 2. It is public holiday on Wednesday, so the curve is very similar to
Sundays but with a little bit rise compared to it.

11

Figure 2 Load profile second week September 1992

For the third week of September load curve, the lowest load reading is during Sunday as
illustrated in Figure 3. On Saturday, offices are opened half-day, supporting that the curve is
the same with other weekdays curves before noon and started to fall afterwards.

Figure 3 Load profile third week September 1992

12

A major power outage occurred on 29th September, causing the load curve to fall greatly
on Tuesday as shown in Figure 4. Recovery process continues in the next day, showing low
load curve (green) similar comparable to Sundays curve (orange). The data collected during
power outage may not be used in actual forecasting system as a reliable system must use
stable, regular load curve on a normal day.

Figure 4 Load profile fourth week September 1992

The pattern goes on for the first week of October. There are no irregular values during the
weekdays which showing normal load curve and the load curve for Sunday is the lowest of
the week as usual. On Saturday which is a half-day work day, the load profile decreases after
noon when offices closed for the day as shown in Figure 5.

13

Figure 5 Load profile first week October 1992

On second week of October, the load profile for weekdays follow usual trend, except for
Tuesday which shows significant drop from 11 pm to 12 am but the load recover the next hour as
usual as shown in Figure 6. This occurrence must be caused by typing error in the data input
process or a small and short power outage. The load curve for weekend also follow the usual
trend, low throughout the day on Sunday and half-day working load curve for Saturday.

14

Figure 6 Load profile second week October 1992

For the third week of October, weekdays load plot shows regular pattern except for Friday
that has a slight drop at 3 pm as shown in Figure 7. Sunday load profile shows usual low pattern
and Saturday plot also dropped after office hours ended at noon.

Figure 7 Load profile third week October 1992

15

On the fourth week of October, the load graph suggested that it was public holiday on Monday,
which shows similar load profile to Sunday as shown in Figure 8. Other weekdays show regular
pattern of load plot and plot on Saturday decreases after noon.

Figure 8 Load profile fourth week October 1992

3.3 SYSTEM DESIGN

Figure 9 below shows the flowchart for designing this fuzzy logic system. The system is design
systematically from step by step to increase forecast accuracy as well as tackling problems and
errors wisely in this system.

16

Start

Determine input variables and output variable

Input: Day and Previous Load
Output: Forecasted Load

Define linguistic variables for each inputs and outputs

Block diagram of system structure is constructed

Create fuzzy rules for fuzzy logic system

Select fuzzy inference method

Select defuzzification method

Yes
Large error between
forecasted and actual load?

No
Accept system and analyze results

End

Figure 9 Flowchart for fuzzy logic system

The block diagram of this system is represented in Figure 10. Blocks on the left side
represent input of this sytem and block on the right hand side represents output of the system.
The block in the middle is rule block, where fuzzy rules is located and fuzzy operations are
performed.

17

Figure 10 Block diagram of fuzzy logic system

3.3 FUZZIFICATION
The system consists of 5 inputs which are Day, LastDayPeak1, LastDayPeak2,
LastWeekPeak1 and LastWeekPeak2. These inputs must be converted from numerical values to
linguistic variables. Assignment of fuzzy membership for power values can be equal for all the
inputs. This is to ensure consistent result for all the inputs. Although the memberships have equal
value, the name for each membership function must be different from each other. This is
important to prevent confusion during defining fuzzy rules process.
The first input used is day, numerically written from 1 to 7 where 1 is Monday and 7 is
Sunday. The membership function is as shown below in Figure 11

Figure 11 Membership Function for input Day

18

The next four inputs of the fuzzy logic system are various load, which are LastDayPeak1,
LastDayPeak2, LastWeekPeak1, and LastDayPeak2. LastDayPeak1 is the peak load of previous
day at 11 am, and the membership function is shown in Figure 12.

Figure 12 Membership function of LastDayPeak1

LastDayPeak2 describes peak load from previous day at 3 pm which when second peak occurred
in a day and the membership function is illustrated in Figure 13.

19

Figure 13 Membership function of LastDayPeak2

LastWeekPeak1 is the peak load of same day on previous week at 11 am, and the membership
function is shown in Figure 114.

Figure 14 Membership function of LastWeekPeak1

LastWeekPeak2 describes peak load from same day of previous week at 3 pm which when
second peak occurred in a day and the membership function is illustrated in Figure 15.

20

Figure 15 Membership function of LastWeekPeak2

3.4 FUZZY INFERENCE RULE

Fuzzy rule is then being written to make this system work. IF-THEN statements are used
to define rules. Between inputs, AND, OR and XOR statement can be used. In case of this
project, 512 fuzzy rules are written to satisfy all possibilities of the variables. These 512 rules
can be summarized in FuzzyTECH software in matrix form.
The matrix form can only occupy two axis at a time, Figure 16 shows the rule matrix of
Day versus LastDayPeak1. Figure 17 describes the rule matrix of Day versus LastDayPeak2,
Figure 18 illustrates the relationship between Day and LastWeekPeak1 whereas Figure 19 shows
the rule matrix of Day versus LastWeekPeak2

21

Figure 16 Matrix Fuzzy rule Day versus LastDayPeak1

Figure 17 Matrix Fuzzy rule Day versus LastDayPeak2

22

Figure 18 Matrix Fuzzy rule Day versus LastWeekPeak1

Figure 19 Matrix Fuzzy rule Day versus LastWeekPeak2

23

Fuzzy inference chosen to be used in this system is Max-Min method. For this method,
the membership values in the two or more conditions within IF statement in a fuzzy rule is
compared. Minimum value from these compared value is taken as AND operation is used in IF
statement. For example in Figure 20, the first two membership functions shows the fuzzy value
for two items in the IF statement. The third membership figure shows the resulting fuzzy
inference by using Max-Min method.

Figure 20 Max-Min (Mamdani) fuzzy inference

3.6 DEFUZZIFICATION
The last step in completing this fuzzy logic system defuzzification method. Centre-ofMaximum (CoM) method uses all maximum values in fuzzy inference membership, and all of
these maximum points are multiplied with its respective crisp value. The summation of all these
terms are then being divided by sums of all membership value of maximum points. This method
of calculation is represented by this formula in Figure 21 where is membership value of all
maximum points and Y is crisp value in x-axis.
=

( )

Figure 21 Centre-of-Maximum (CoM) defuzzification

24

Mean-of-Maximum defuzzification uses the edge value in highest point obtained in Max-Min
fuzzy inference and divide by two to obtain crisp value, as shown in Figure 22.
() =

a+b
2

Figure 22 Mean-of-Maximum (MoM) defuzzification

For Centre of area defuzzification, samples of readings of x axis values are taken for each flat
points in Max-Min fuzzy inference and are multipled by each membership value. In
denominator, the membeship values are multiplied with number of samples taken. CoA
defuzzification is represented by equation shown in Figure 23.
( ) =

()
()

Figure 23 Centre-of-Area (CoA) defuzzification

To demonstrate the system operation, example is taken to forecast peak load on Tuesday
8th September 1992. The fuzzification for these sets of data are shown below. In Figure 24
Wedenesday is a member of the fuzzy set Weekday to the degree of 1.00

Figure 24 Fuzzy set for Tuesday

25

First peak for Monday which is the day before is given as 4362.8 MW is a member of fuzzy set
LDayHigh to the degree of 1.00 as shown in Figure 25.

Figure 25 Fuzzy Set for LastDayPeak1

Second Peak of Monday is given as 4364.3 MW which is a member of fuzzy set LDay2High to
the degree of 1.00 as shown in Figure 26.

Figure 26 Fuzzy Set for LastDayPeak2

26

First peak for Tuesday which is the week before is given as 4175.1 MW is a member of fuzzy set
LWeekMedHigh to the degree of 0.13 and LWeekHigh to the degree of 0.99 as shown in Figure
27.

Figure 27 Fuzzy Set for LastWeekPeak1

First peak for Tuesday which is the week before is given as 4175.1 MW is a member of fuzzy set
LWeek2MedHigh to the degree of 0.04 and LWeek2High to the degree of 1.00 as shown in
Figure 28.

Figure 28 Fuzzy Set for LastWeekPeak2

27

Performing Mamdani Fuzzy Inference (Max-Min Method) will result in a plot as follows in
Figure 29.

Figure 29 Max-min (Mamdani) Fuzzy Inference

Applying the three defuzzification method will result as the foolowing:
(i)

Centre-of-Maximum (CoM)
Simulating CoM defuzzification gives the following result as in Figure 30.

Figure 30 CoM defuzzification for 8 September 1992

28

Besides from using software simulation to find defuzzified crisp value, manual
calculations can be performed and compared.

=
=

( )

(3208.4 0.21) + (4384.5 0.99)

0.21 + 0.99
= 4178.68

(ii)

Mean-of-Maximum (MoM)
Simulating CoM defuzzification gives the following result as in Figure 31.

Figure 31 MoM defuzzification for 8 September 1992

+
2
4300 + 4500
=
2
= 4400
=

29

(iii)

Centre-of-Area (CoA)
Simulating CoA defuzzification gives the following result as in Figure 32

Figure 32 CoA defuzzification for 8 September 1992

=
=

()
()

[0.21(2767 + 3000 + 3500) + 0.99(4300 + 4400 + 4500)

(0.21 3) + (0.99 3)
= 4130.6

30

CHAPTER 4

31

CHAPTER 4

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1

INTRODUCTION
In this chapter, result is collected and represented in table and graph form. Three

defuzzification methods are used in this chapter. The values from actual and forecasted load are
compared and error less than 2% is expected to conclude that the method is the most suitable to
be implemented.

4.2

RESULT AND DISCUSSION

Peak load value is tabulated for a week, the week selected is second week of October as

in Table 1. Three defuzzification methods (Mean of Maximum, Centre of Maximum and Centre
of Area) are performed and compared to the actual values. A graph is also generated in Figure 33
to graphically show differences in simulated and actual values.
Day

Forecasted Peak Load (MW)

Actual Peak
Load

MoM

CoM

CoA

Thursday

4395.2

3976.7

4325.4

4325.9

Friday

4371.2

3976.7

4247.2

4250.1

Saturday

4213.0

3976.7

4172.4

4169.8

Sunday

3209.0

3976.7

3097.3

3102.4

Monday

4443.5

3976.7

4303.0

4411.0

Tuesday

4442.5

3976.7

4315.5

4310.1

Wednesday

4439.0

3976.7

4307.3

4308.1

Table 1 Comparison between Defuzzification Methods

32

Defuzzification Comparison
5000

Electrical Load (MW)

4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0

Day
Actual Load

MoM

CoM

CoA

Figure 33 Graph comparing Defuzzification methods

Based on Table 1, Relative error is calculated using formula as follows and the results are
tabulated in Table 2.

(%) =

Day

| |
100

Forecasted Peak Load (MW)

Actual Peak
Load

MoM

CoM

CoA

Thursday

4395.2

9.5

1.59

1.57

Friday

4371.2

9.02

2.8

2.7

Saturday

4213.0

5.6

0.96

1.02

Sunday

3209.0

23.9

3.5

3.3

Monday

4443.5

10.5

3.1

0.73

Tuesday

4442.5

10.4

2.9

2.9

Wednesday

4439.0

10.4

2.9

2.9

Table 2 Percentage Relative error for three types of defuzzification

33

By comparing these graphs of defuzzification methods being used in all of the data, Centre-ofArea (CoA) and Centre-of-Mass (CoM) method has little difference in result. Between CoA and
CoM methods, CoA methods is more accurate to be used as this method takes more sample in
calculation to come up with crisp defuzzified value contrary to CoM method that take only one
reading per membership value in Max-Min fuzzy inference diagram. Therefore, CoA method is
chosen to be the best method to implement this system.

34

CHAPTER 5

35

CHAPTER 5
CONCLUSION
The system can successfully forecast peak load based on previous peak load data and
type and day. The best implementation is also determined which is using Centre-of-Area (CoA)
defuzzification which takes samples from more points than two other defuzzification method.
The relative error margin is said to be kept under 2% but it cannot be achieved for all instance
despite countless trial and error in modifying the fuzzy rules. The final system managed to
achieve less than 2% error in certain circumstances.
To improve this system in the future, fuzzy logic can be used alongside other artificial
intelligence techniques such as artificial neural network or particle swarm optimization. This
approach can greatly improve the systems accuracy and reliability. Another suggestion is to use
many rule blocks and more inputs that takes into account environmental factors such as weather
and seasons.

36

REFERENCES
1. Sachdeva, S.; Verma, C.M., "Load Forecasting using Fuzzy Methods," Power System
Technology and IEEE Power India Conference, 2008. POWERCON 2008. Joint
International Conference on , vol., no., pp.1,4, 12-15 Oct. 2008.
2. Shu Fan; Yuan-Kang Wu; Wei-jen Lee; Ching-Yin Lee, "Comparative study on load
forecasting technologies for different geographical distributed loads," Power and Energy
Society General Meeting, 2011 IEEE , vol., no., pp.1,8, 24-29 July 2011.
3. Kurniawan, T.Y., "Electrical load time series data forecasting using interval type-2 fuzzy
logic system," Computer Science and Information Technology (ICCSIT), 2010 3rd IEEE
International Conference on , vol.5, no., pp.527,531, 9-11 July 2010
4. Xiaojuan Liu; Enjian Bai; Jian'an Fang; Lunhan Luo, "Time-variant slide fuzzy timeseries method for short-term load forecasting," Intelligent Computing and Intelligent
Systems (ICIS), 2010 IEEE International Conference on , vol.1, no., pp.65,68, 29-31 Oct.
2010
5. Ahmadi, S.; Bevrani, H.; Jannaty, H., "A fuzzy inference model for short-term load
forecasting," Renewable Energy and Distributed Generation (ICREDG), 2012 Second
Iranian Conference on , vol., no., pp.39,44, 6-8 March 2012
6. Jain, A.; Srinivas, E.; Rauta, R., "Short term load forecasting using fuzzy adaptive
inference and similarity," Nature & Biologically Inspired Computing, 2009. NaBIC 2009.
World Congress on , vol., no., pp.1743,1748, 9-11 Dec. 2009
7. Wang Xiao-Wen, "The short-term load forecasting based on fuzzy inference rules,"
Electricity Distribution (CICED), 2012 China International Conference on , vol., no.,
pp.1,3, 10-14 Sept. 2012
8. Khamis, M. F I; Baharudin, Z.; Hamid, N. H.; Abdullah, M. F.; Nordin, F. T., "Short
term load forecasting for small scale power system using fuzzy logic," Modeling,
Simulation and Applied Optimization (ICMSAO), 2011 4th International Conference on ,
vol., no., pp.1,5, 19-21 April 2011

37

9. Kuihe Yang; Lingling Zhao, "Application of Mamdani Fuzzy System Amendment on

Load Forecasting Model," Photonics and Optoelectronics, 2009. SOPO 2009. Symposium
on , vol., no., pp.1,4, 14-16 Aug. 2009
10. Koushki, A. R.; Maralloo, M.N.; Lucas, C.; Kalhor, A., "Application of neuro-fuzzy
models in short term electricity load forecast," Computer Conference, 2009. CSICC 2009.
14th International CSI , vol., no., pp.41,46, 20-21 Oct. 2009

38