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Voter Mobilization
Costas Panagopoulos
Fordham University
Political scientists are increasingly exploring the psychological underpinnings of voting behavior using field
experimental techniques. Research in psychology demonstrates that gratitude expression reinforces prosocial
behavior. This article reports the results of the three randomized field experiments designed to investigate the
impact of gratitude expression on voter turnout. The experiments were conducted in a range of electoral settings,
and the results suggest thanking voters for voting in a previous election boosts participation levels in subsequent
elections. Moreover, the gratitude expression effect I observe appears to be distinct from social pressure and is robust
across subgroups of voters, including minorities and women, and both low- and high-propensity voters.
Data and supporting materials necessary to reproduce the numerical results will be made available via a replication archive at
www.costaspanagopoulos.com upon publication. An online appendix containing supplementary materials can be found at https://
journals.cambridge.org/jop. Financial support for this research was provided by the Institution of Social and Policy Studies at Yale
University and by Fordham University.
The Journal of Politics, Vol. 73, No. 3, July 2011, Pp. 707717
Southern Political Science Association, 2011
doi:10.1017/S0022381611000405
ISSN 0022-3816
707
708
and concluding remarks are presented in the final
section.
costas panagopoulos
especially by groups or individuals (fundraisers,
volunteer recruiters or peer-reviewed journal editors,
for instance) who rely, typically repeatedly, on selfless, altruistic, or philanthropic behavior. Previous
studies reveal benefactors who are thanked for their
efforts are willing to give more and work harder on
behalf of others when future opportunities arise
compared to benefactors who have not been thanked
(McCullough et al. 2001). Field experimental studies
find that gratitude expression can reinforce kidney
donation (Bernstein and Simmons 1974), volunteering behavior toward people with HIV/AIDS (Bennett,
Ross, and Sunderland, 1996), and more visits from
case managers in a residential treatment program
(Clark, Northrop, and Barkshire 1988; cf. Bono and
McCullough 2006). Lab experiments provide analogous evidence (Clark 1975; Goldman, Seever, and
Seever 1982; McGovern, Ditzian, and Taylor 1975;
Moss and Page 1972). Similarly, in commercial
contexts, Rind and Bordia (1995) find that writing
thank you on a restaurant bill raises servers tips,
and Carey et al. (1976) show that thanking consumers for prior purchases stimulates repeat purchasing
behavior, compared to customers who are not
thanked. McCullough, Emmons, and Tsang (2002)
show that individuals who report habitually experiencing gratitude engage more frequently in prosocial
behaviors than do individuals who experience gratitude less often. Experimental evidence of gratitudes
causal force in shaping prosocial behavior is also
provided by Bartlett and DeSteno (2006, 324). The
authors found strong evidence that gratitude plays an
important role in facilitating costly behavior in a
manner distinct from that of a general positive state
or simple awareness of prosocial norms (Bartlett and
DeSteno 2006). Such results lead McCullough,
Kimeldorf, and Cohen (2008, 282) to speculate that
a beneficiarys expression of appreciation acknowledges to the benefactor that he or she has noticed a
kindness and may be prone to reciprocate when a
future opportunity arises.
In this article, I explore the impact of expressing
gratitude on voting in elections. I implement three
field experiments to test the hypothesis that expressing appreciation to voters for having participated in a
previous election will stimulate their propensity to do
so again in a subsequent election. These are the first
randomized field experiments of which I am aware
designed to investigate the impact of gratitude
expression on voter turnout.
Randomized experiments assign units of observation randomly to treatment and control groups,
a feature that ensures the samples characteristics
709
ballot under established party labels, so the election
was essentially nonpartisan. Ultimately, Kenneth
Mitchell was elected with 40.1% of the vote, while
Deborah Rose received 37.1% of the vote to earn
second place. Overall voter turnout in the special
election was 12.5% among registered voters.
The complete experimental sample was 10,916
registered voters residing in single-voter households
who had voted in the previous (November 2005)
municipal election in New York City. Voters were
randomly assigned to either the control group or to
one of two treatment groups described in the
following section. Voters assigned to the treatment
groups were sent a postcard mailing within the week
prior to the election.
To ensure that random assignment generated
treatment and control groups that were balanced in
terms of observable characteristics, I conducted a series
of randomization checks. The results, provided in the
online appendix (Table 1) present mean turnout levels
for 10 prior elections and confirm the randomization
exercise yielded experimental groups that were balanced with respect to prior voting.2
Subjects assigned to the treatment conditions
received one of two mailings printed on simple,
4x6 white postcards. Both mailings were strictly
nonpartisan. The first treatment simply reminded
voters about the upcoming election and encouraged
them to vote; it incorporated no additional information besides the blandishment to vote. Although there
was a separate control group that received no mailing, the first treatment provides an additional baseline for comparison with the gratitude treatment. As
I note above, I do not expect to find a strong effect
from this treatment. Subjects assigned to the gratitude condition were sent a postcard that thanked
voters for voting in the previous (November 2005)
election and urged to vote in the 2009 special election
(see Appendix A for mailing samples)3. The pure
control group was comprised of 8,540 subjects, while
2
Balance can also be confirmed statistically using multinomial
logit to predict experimental assignment as a function of the 10
covariates. As expected, a likelihood ratio test with 20 degrees of
freedom (10 covariates times two treatments) is nonsignificant
(LR58.66, p5.56). Similar analyses confirm balance for the other
two experiments discussed below; details are not reported but
available upon request.
3
710
T ABLE 1
costas panagopoulos
Experimental Results (Staten Island, NY,
February 2009)
Experimental Group
Turnout
(%)
Intent-totreat (ITT)
Gratitude Treatment
Reminder
Control
1,978
398
8,540
25.9
23.9
23.5
+2.4 (1.1)
+0.4 (2.2)
711
Estimates of the Effects of Two Mail Treatments on Voter Turnout in the Staten Island, NY
Special Election (NYC City Council District 49) Experiment (February 2009)
Vote Propensityb
Model Specifications
(Equation 1)
(Equation 2)
Low
High
.024* (.011)
.004 (.022)
10,916
No
.427
.030** (.010)
.009 (.020)
10,916
Yes
.390
10.2
.018* (.011)
-.004 (.024)
4,752
No
.302
34.6
.030* (.016)
.004 (.032)
6,164
No
.476
Notes: Estimates represent intent-to-treat effects derived from OLS regression. Dependent variable is voter turnout in the February 24,
2009 special election (NYC Council District 49, Staten Island). Numbers in parentheses represent standard errors. ** signifies statistical
significance at the p , .01 level, * at the p , .05 level, using one-tailed tests.
a
Covariates include: Prior turnout in the 2007, 2006, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001 and 2000 general elections (November) and the 2002, 2006
(Congress) and 2008 (presidential) primary elections. See Online Appendix Table 1 for details.
b
Subjects who voted in fewer than five of the ten prior elections are classified as low propensity voters, while those who voted in five
or more of these elections are considered high propensity voters.
their own voting records (Gerber, Green, and Larimer 2008) and even other policy interventions like
Election Day registration and vote-by-mail fashioned
to stimulate turnout (Knack 2001); effects of this
magnitude have rarely been encountered in randomized field experiments designed to mobilize electoral
participation using direct mail treatments, even when
subjects have received as many as nine pieces of mail
(Gerber, Green, and Larimer 2008).
712
costas panagopoulos
expression operates similarly regardless of how frequently voters tend to vote in elections.
9
New Jersey Secretary of State, November 23, 2009, available at
http://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/2009results/09general/
2009-gen-election-ballots-cast-by-county-112309.pdf.
T ABLE 3
Experimental
Group
ALL
Gratitude Treatment
11,499
Control
29,802
BLACK
Gratitude Treatment
3,833
Control
9,934
HISPANIC
Gratitude Treatment
3,833
Control
9,934
UNMARRIED WOMEN
Gratitude Treatment
3,833
Control
9,934
Turnout
(%)
Intent-totreat (ITT)
39.2
36.7
+2.5 (0.5)
37.5
34.8
+2.7 (0.9)
36.6
34.0
+2.6 (0.9)
43.3
41.2
+2.1 (0.9)
Notes: Estimates represent intent-to-treat effects derived from OLS regression. Dependent variable is voter turnout in the November 2, 2009 NJ general election. Numbers in parentheses
represent standard errors. **signifies statistical significance at the p , .01 level, using one-tailed tests.
a
Covariates include: Prior turnout in the 2006 general elections (November) as well as race, gender, marital status, and partisan affiliation. See Online Appendix Table 2 for details.
b
Only subjects vote history in the November 2006 election was available. Accordingly, I consider subjects who voted in this as high propensity voters, while those who failed to do so are
designated low propensity voters.
38.0
.017** (.006)
29,311
No
.485
34.7
.026** (.009)
13,767
No
.476
35.5
.027** (.009)
13,767
No
.478
.025** (.005)
41,301
No
.484
.023** (.005)
41,301
Yes
.457
28.1
.024** (.006)
27,638
No
.450
56.0
.025** (.009)
13,663
No
.496
41.8
.021** (.009)
13,767
No
.493
Female
Unmarried
Female
Hispanic
Black
Low
(Equation 2)
(Equation 1)
Demographic Attributes
Vote Propensityb
Model Specifications
High
T ABLE 4
Estimates of the Effects of the Gratitude Mail Treatments on Voter Turnout in the New Jersey Gubernatorial Election (November 2009)
713
gratitude expression effectively motivates blacks,
Hispanics, unmarried females, and females overall
at roughly even rates; even as the impact appears to
be slightly weaker for women overall, the differences
in estimated treatment effects do not differ statistically (at conventional levels) across these subgroups
of voters.
Taken together with the experiment conducted in
the Staten Island, NY special election, the two studies
reveal strikingly consistent estimates of the treatment
effect for gratitude expression. Moreover, the largescale study conducted in a high-salience electoral
context in the 2009 general election in New Jersey
suggests the impact of gratitude expression operates
similarly in both low- and high-salience electoral
environments.
714
2009 special election in Staten Island, NY (lowsalience) and the gubernatorial general election in
New Jersey (high-salience). Primaries are open in
Georgia, so all registered voters were eligible to
participate. In total, 19.2% of registered voters voted
in the primary election.13
A total of 77,045 registered voters in single-voter
households residing in two congressional districts
(1 and 12) who had voted in the November 2006
midterm elections were randomly assigned to receive
one of four postcard mailings during the week prior
to the election. Messages were crafted to reflect
somewhat varying degrees of social pressure. The
first treatment, designed to mimic original gratitude
treatment as closely as possible, arguably incorporates
maximal social pressure by noting explicitly that
subjects voting behavior is observable through public
records, while a second treatment aims to reduce
social pressure by excluding references to official
records. I also devised a third treatment, intended
to ratchet down any social pressure elements even
further, that provided only a generic expression of
gratitude to subjects for their attention to politics and
for getting involved in the political process. To
parallel the initial study, a pure, generic reminder
treatment was also included.14 (See Appendix C for
details.) Approximately 2,000 subjects were randomly
assigned to receive each of the gratitude treatments,
while 1,001 subjects were assigned to receive the
reminder mailing. A total of 70,039 voters were
assigned to the control group and received no
mailing. Table 3 in the online appendix confirms
the experimental groups were balanced with respect
to voting in five prior elections.
The overall experimental results presented in
Table 5 suggest all three gratitude treatments significantly elevated turnout in the election, while the
effect of the pure reminder treatment was, as expected, weaker and statistically insignificant. Remarkably, the estimate of the intent-to-treat effect for the
gratitude treatment that mentioned official records
(as it did in the previous two studies) was, at
2.4 percentage points on average, essentially identical
to the effects detected in the New York and New Jersey
studies. Expressing gratitude without a reference to
monitoring voting behavior via official records exerted
an effect of exactly equal magnitude (2.4 percentage
13
Georgia Secretary of State, Elections Division (Personal correspondence with the author, August 3, 2010).
14
costas panagopoulos
T ABLE 5
Experimental
Group
Gratitude
Treatment
(Official Records)
Gratitude
Treatment (No
Mention of
Official Records)
Gratitude
Treatment
(Generic)
Reminder
Control
Turnout
(%)
Intent-totreat (ITT)
2,001
39.8
+2.4 (1.1)
2,002
39.8
+2.4 (1.1)
2,002
40.5
+3.1 (1.1)
1,001
70,039
39.0
37.4
+1.6 (1.5)
Discussion
A key advantage of randomized experimentation is
the potential to accumulate experimental evidence,
enabling researchers to converge on underlying parameters of interest with greater precision and reliability and to illuminate the scope of conditions in
which effects are likely to obtain. Replication and
extension is essential to this updating process and to
the experimental enterprise. In this article, I
report results from three separate but parallel field
15
715
Estimates of the Effects of Four Mail Treatments on Voter Turnout in the July 2010 Primary
Election (Georgia)
Model Specifications
Vote Propensityb
(Equation 1)
(Equation 2)
Low
High
.024* (.011)
.024* (.011)
.029** (.010)
.027** (.011)
19.0
.031** (.013)
.029** (.013)
54.9
.024* (.015)
.030* (.016)
.031** (.011)
.016 (.015)
77,045
No
.484
.030** (.010)
.019 (.014)
77,045
Yes
.434
.021* (.013)
.018 (.018)
37,133
No
.392
.043** (.016)
.025 (.022)
39,912
No
.497
Notes: Estimates represent intent-to-treat effects derived from OLS regression. Dependent variable is voter turnout in the July 20, 2010
GA primary election. Numbers in parentheses represent standard errors. ** signifies statistical significance at the p , .01 level, * at the
p , .05 level, using one-tailed tests.
a
Covariates include: Prior turnout in the 2008, 2007, and 2004 general elections (November) and the 2006 (Congress) and 2008
(presidential) primary elections. See Online Appendix Table 3 for details.
b
Subjects who voted in fewer than three of the five prior elections noted above are classified as low propensity voters, while those who
voted in three or more of these elections are considered high propensity voters.
716
were sent thank you notes after every election, for
example) is also an open question.
Noteworthy also is the practical relevance of the
findings reported in this article. Techniques that
effectively mobilize voters with positive appeals designed to express appreciation will likely be far more
attractive to policymakers and campaign organizations compared to messages that seek to impel voters
to the polls by shaming or other forms of social
pressureeven if the latter may produce larger
boosts in turnout. Nevertheless, it is important to
acknowledge potential limitations to the current
study. Interventions that express gratitude may not
always produce the desired effect, particularly in
certain political settings. Some psychologists believe
gratitude increases proportionally with the benefactors intentions, and there exists evidence that subjects
are more responsive toward benefactors who helped
them out of benevolent rather than self-serving motives (Tsang 2006b). It may well be the case that voters
would be resistant to expressions of gratitude by
partisan enterprises, for instance, whose motives could
be perceived as selfish. Subsequent research is required
to investigate this proposition directly.
The effectiveness of the gratitude treatment I
uncover in this study also adds to our understanding
about the influence of message content in mobilization
appeals. Recent field experimental studies (Gerber,
Green, and Larimer 2008, 2010; Panagopoulos 2010)
that harnesses potent, social-psychological forces to
effectively mobilize voters challenge early conclusions
that variations in message content delivered via mail
were unlikely to yield meaningfully different outcomes
(Green and Gerber 2008). Taken together with this
growing body of scholarship, the current study reinforces an updated view that messages may matter
more so than we initially believed and that some
appeals are more powerful than others.
Insights from burgeoning field experimental forays into investigating the underlying psychological
mechanisms that foster or hinder prosocial political
participation are useful additions to the extant theoretical and observational literatures on this important
topic. There remains much still to learn about how
emotions interact with social pressure, social norms,
public surveillance and contextual factors to motivate
political behavior, and the field experimental paradigm, along with requisite extension and replication,
can help to shed light on these questions. Subsequent
research can examine the impact of triggering different
emotions, using different communication tactics or
varying message sources to investigate more nuanced
approaches.
costas panagopoulos
Acknowledgments
I am grateful to Donald Green and the Institution
for Social and Policy Studies at Yale University,
Deans John Harrington, Nancy Busch, and Michael
Latham at Fordham University, Hal Malchow, and
Our Community Votes for generous support. I am
especially grateful to Donald Green, and to David
Nickerson, Michael McCullough, David DeSteno,
Alan Gerber, Kevin Arceneaux, Rich Fleisher, Jeff
Cohen, Joel Rivlin, Bill Russell, the editors, and
anonymous reviewers for invaluable comments and
suggestions.
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