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Prof. D.Clouteau (MSSMat-ECP) - F.Lopez-Caballero (MSSMat-ECP) - Prof. R.

Paolucci (DICA-Polimi)

Uncertainty Quantification of 3D
physics-based models for seismic safety
evaluation of critical structures.
Filippo Gatti1,2
1 Laboratoire


Centrale Paris

Politecnico di Milano


Partners and Sponsor

SEISM Institute

SINAPS@ Project
Earthquake and Nuclear Facilities: Ensuring Safety and

KAshiwazaki-Kariwa Research Initiative for Seismic Margin

etsu-Oki Earthquake
Niigata-Ken Chu
July, 16 2007

The M6.6 - Mj 6.8 mainshock of

the Niigata-Ken Chuetsu-Oki
earthquake occurred offshore from
the cities of Kashiwazaki and
Kariwa, Japan, at 10:13 a.m.
local time on 16 July 2007, and
was followed by a sequence of
more than 70 aftershocks [3].
Kariwa Village is home to the
worlds largest nuclear power
plant, with seven reactors and a
total output of 8.200 megawatts.

Figure 1: Main shock epicenters located by

the USGS and JMA, and aftershock pattern
of the Niigata Earthquake [1].


Leading target
Uncertainty Quantification(UQ) in 3D physics-based
earthquake ground shaking prediction for seismic safety
evaluation of critical structures.
Main Uncertainties
Seismic Source (fault geometry, slip distribution...)
3D velocity model
Site effects NL modelling (NL constitutive law, travel path

Main Features

Site-Source distance
15-20 Km
Hypocenter depth
8-10 Km

Figure 2: USGS PGV Map (Google Earth)


Available Record Database

33 recording locations within the NP facility
Main-Shock and 6 After Shocks
K-Net + Kik-Net records (within 30km)
Down-Hole and structural records available
Spatial variability within the site
Low degree of confidence on 3D velocity model
folded structures (horizontal layered strata?)
complex fault evolution (3 asperities)

Non-Linear Site Effects

Liquefaction effects
G reduction within the first 50m

Record quality and exploitability

Figure 3: VS time evolution according to inverse analysis

(NIOM method)[2].


Key Points
1 Identification of non-linear site effects from inverse
analysis of records (evolution of soil mechanical properties)

Retrofitting input characteristics from signal processing

(space-time correlation)

Exploitation of down-hole array signals for sub-surface

model calibration

Calibration of fault parameters and kinematic simulation


References I

R. Kayen, S.J. Brandenberg, B.D. Collins, S. Dickenson,

S. Ashford, L. Johnson, Y. Kawamata, Y. Tanaka,
H. Koumoto, N. Abrahamson, L. Cluff, and K. Tokimatsu.
Geoengineering and Seismological Aspects of the
Niigata-Ken Chuetsu-Oki Earthquake of 16 July 2007.
Earthquake Spectra, 25(4):777802, 2009.
H. Mogi, S.M. Shrestha, H. Kawakami, and S. Okamura.
Nonlinear Soil Behavior Observed at Vertical Array in the
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant during the 2007
Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake.
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,
100(2):762775, 2010.

References II

O.V. Pavlenko and K. Irikura.

Nonlinear Soil Behavior at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear
Power Plant During the Niigata Chuetsu-Oki Earthquake
(July, 16, 2007).
Pure and Applied Geophysics, 169(10):17771800, 2012.