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13 Nov. 2012
Outline
Introduction
Background: empirical multiplier estimates
Input-Output based calculation of the multiplier
Some example calculations (DE, FR)
Textbook multiplier and general government spending multiplier
The spending multiplier of government consumption
The multiplier of government spending on construction
The multiplier of government spending on welfare
Comparison of multipliers for EU member states
Outline
Introduction
Background: empirical multiplier estimates
Input-Output based calculation of the multiplier
Some example calculations (DE, FR)
Textbook multiplier and general government spending multiplier
The spending multiplier of government consumption
The multiplier of government spending on construction
The multiplier of government spending on welfare
Comparison of multipliers for EU member states
Introduction
Some of my inspirations for this contribution:
Introduction
Some of my inspirations for this contribution:
Introduction
Some of my inspirations for this contribution:
Introduction 2
The development of Input-Output analysis
Introduction 2
The development of Input-Output analysis
Introduction 2
The development of Input-Output analysis
Introduction 2
The development of Input-Output analysis
Introduction 2
The development of Input-Output analysis
Introduction 2
The development of Input-Output analysis
Outline
Introduction
Background: empirical multiplier estimates
Input-Output based calculation of the multiplier
Some example calculations (DE, FR)
Textbook multiplier and general government spending multiplier
The spending multiplier of government consumption
The multiplier of government spending on construction
The multiplier of government spending on welfare
Comparison of multipliers for EU member states
Outline
Introduction
Background: empirical multiplier estimates
Input-Output based calculation of the multiplier
Some example calculations (DE, FR)
Textbook multiplier and general government spending multiplier
The spending multiplier of government consumption
The multiplier of government spending on construction
The multiplier of government spending on welfare
Comparison of multipliers for EU member states
Textbook multiplier
Goes back to Samuelson (1948)
dY
1
=
dG
1c +m
Textbook multiplier
Goes back to Samuelson (1948)
dY
1
=
dG
1c +m
Assumptions:
Input-Output tables
a1,1
...
an,1
OC1
... a1,n D1
... ... ...
... an,n Dn
... OCn 0
Input-Output tables
a1,1
...
an,1
OC1
... a1,n D1
... ... ...
... an,n Dn
... OCn 0
nominal values
Input-Output tables
a1,1
...
an,1
OC1
... a1,n D1
... ... ...
... an,n Dn
... OCn 0
nominal values
= yx A yx ,
= (Id A)1 x,
= A M yx ,
n
X
i ,
MX =
i=1
MDA = M MX
DA =
h
1 mDA =
MDA
DA
1 c (1 mDA )
Outline
Introduction
Background: empirical multiplier estimates
Input-Output based calculation of the multiplier
Some example calculations (DE, FR)
Textbook multiplier and general government spending multiplier
The spending multiplier of government consumption
The multiplier of government spending on construction
The multiplier of government spending on welfare
Comparison of multipliers for EU member states
France
Textbook
DA concept
m
mult mDA mult
2000
0.31
1.37
0.19
1.52
0.26
1.43
0.18
1.53
2001
0.30
1.38
0.18
1.55
0.26
1.45
0.18
1.54
2002
0.29
1.40
0.17
1.58
0.24
1.48
0.17
1.57
2003
0.29
1.40
0.17
1.59
0.23
1.51
0.17
1.59
2004
0.31
1.36
0.18
1.56
0.24
1.49
0.17
1.57
2005
0.33
1.32
0.19
1.53
0.26
1.46
0.18
1.55
2006
0.37
1.24
0.20
1.47
0.27
1.44
0.18
1.53
2007
0.37
1.22
0.20
1.44
0.27
1.43
0.19
1.52
max. decrease
13%
9%
5%
4%
Germany
mPC mult
France
mPC mult
2000
0.57
0.08
1.73
0.57
0.08
1.70
2001
0.58
0.08
1.74
0.57
0.08
1.70
2002
0.58
0.08
1.75
0.57
0.08
1.71
2003
0.58
0.08
1.76
0.57
0.08
1.72
2004
0.58
0.08
1.74
0.57
0.08
1.71
2005
0.58
0.08
1.72
0.57
0.09
1.69
2006
0.57
0.09
1.67
0.57
0.09
1.68
2007
0.55
0.09
1.64
0.57
0.09
1.67
max. decrease
7%
3%
France
mCO mult
2000
0.06
1.76
0.06
1.73
2001
0.06
1.78
0.06
1.74
2002
0.06
1.79
0.06
1.75
2003
0.06
1.79
0.06
1.76
2004
0.06
1.78
0.06
1.75
2005
0.06
1.76
0.07
1.73
2006
0.06
1.72
0.07
1.72
2007
0.06
1.69
0.07
1.71
max. decrease
6%
3%
France
mCp mult
2000
0.19
1.50
0.19
1.46
2001
0.19
1.51
0.19
1.46
2002
0.18
1.53
0.19
1.48
2003
0.18
1.53
0.18
1.49
2004
0.18
1.51
0.19
1.48
2005
0.19
1.47
0.20
1.45
2006
0.20
1.43
0.20
1.43
2007
0.20
1.41
0.20
1.42
max. decrease
8%
5%
Outline
Introduction
Background: empirical multiplier estimates
Input-Output based calculation of the multiplier
Some example calculations (DE, FR)
Textbook multiplier and general government spending multiplier
The spending multiplier of government consumption
The multiplier of government spending on construction
The multiplier of government spending on welfare
Comparison of multipliers for EU member states
AT
BE
CZ
DE
ES
EO
FR
GR
HU
IE
c
0.57
0.51
0.49
0.58
0.61
0.60
0.57
0.76
0.57
0.45
Textbook
m
mult
0.48
1.10
0.74
0.81
0.69
0.83
0.33
1.32
0.30
1.44
0.81
0.82
0.26
1.46
0.30
1.85
0.67
0.91
0.70
0.81
DA concept
mDA
mult
0.25
1.30
0.28
1.13
0.34
0.97
0.19
1.53
0.21
1.54
0.39
0.97
0.18
1.55
0.22
1.90
0.29
1.18
0.30
1.03
PC concept
mPC
mult
0.12
1.57
0.12
1.39
0.19
1.21
0.08
1.71
0.11
1.72
0.18
1.34
0.09
1.69
0.09
2.26
0.15
1.44
0.14
1.27
Construction
mCO
mult
0.09
1.61
0.10
1.41
0.14
1.29
0.06
1.75
0.08
1.77
0.15
1.39
0.07
1.73
0.11
2.21
0.12
1.48
0.16
1.23
Welfare
mCp
mult
0.24
1.33
0.29
1.12
0.33
1.00
0.19
1.47
0.21
1.50
0.35
1.07
0.20
1.45
0.22
1.92
0.28
1.21
0.30
1.00
IT
LT
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
cp
0.60
0.65
0.64
0.67
0.70
0.47
0.58
Textbook
m
mult
0.25
1.54
0.65
1.00
0.36
1.37
0.36
1.45
0.44
1.34
0.37
1.12
0.63
0.95
DA concept
mDA
mult
0.18
1.62
0.32
1.24
0.24
1.49
0.24
1.58
0.29
1.42
0.22
1.22
0.33
1.11
PC concept
mPC
mult
0.07
1.81
0.13
1.54
0.09
1.82
0.09
1.85
0.18
1.74
0.11
1.40
0.15
1.43
Construction
mCO
mult
0.06
1.84
0.08
1.63
0.07
1.86
0.11
1.81
0.10
1.91
0.06
1.47
0.14
1.44
Welfare
mCp
mult
0.19
1.57
0.33
1.19
0.21
1.57
0.25
1.51
0.24
1.59
0.23
1.21
0.30
1.16