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Miami . Q3 2013
35,684,219 sf
17.2%
17.9%
183,298 sf (19.3%)
-56.6%
447,406 sf
Outlook
Numerous cranes now dot the CBD horizon. On the ground, large swaths of
the urban core and parts of the outlying Midtown market resemble virtual
construction sites. Intense growth of commercial and residential product is
well underway with at least 40 projects in various stages of development.
Under construction office product remains confined to the suburbs at less
than 200,000 square feet. Near-term (late 2015) planned deliveries with
announced completion dates of new office inventory will be located in the
CBD, also totaling 200,000 square feet. Overall absorption has maintained
a positive motion for almost four years. Largely attributed to Class A
buildings, vacancy within this segment of the market has declined
consistently for the past 3.25 years. Among Class B assets, a slower trend
has decreased vacancy consistently for only the last 1.5 years. The pace of
leasing activity has subsided since 2011. For those known transactions now
under negotiation as of this writing, the volume of square footage is
anticipated to increase leasing activity levels. However, with a large
percentage comprised of renewals, relocations within existing submarkets
and/or space downsizing, this will not translate into positive absorption.
Demand
-1.6%
$35.13 psf
$25.12 psf
s.f.
Market conditions
Year-to-date absorption was virtually evenly divided between the CBD and
the suburbs with the Class A sector dominating Miamis new occupancy by
a wide margin. The majority of Miamis inventory is comprised of Class A
buildings. The CBDs Class A vacancy was reduced by 2.1 percentage
points since year-end 2012. As such, both the Brickell and Downtown
sectors (which combined make up the CBD) are positioned to move into
more balanced/landlord favorable conditions sooner than their suburban
counterparts. During the same time period, the suburbs Class A vacancy
fell by 1.4 percentage points. Overall vacancy for every submarket,
however, remains in the double digits with the metro area still facing nearly
6.4 million square feet of direct and sublet vacant space.
Supply
Supply
Economy
National and statewide employment figures were below expectations with
the unemployment rate rising in the majority of states. Florida, however,
was not one of those states and at a seasonally adjusted 7.1 percent was
down from 8.7 percent 12 months ago. Miamis rate was likewise down, to
8.4 percent from last years 9.7 percent. Labor force participation in the
metro area, however, was down during the same period by 2.0 percent or
nearly 27,000 people. In terms of absolute numbers, Miamis top industry
gainers over the year were trade, transportation and utilities, retail trade and
leisure and hospitality. The highest percent increases were posted among
retail trade, leisure and hospitality and the financial activities sectors at 4.1,
4.0 and 3.1 percent, respectively. Constructions specialty trade contractors
subsector also posted a notable increase at 3.2 percent during this time.
12-month
forecast
Net absorption
total vacancy
1,500,000
25%
1,000,000
20%
500,000
15%
0
10%
-500,000
5%
-1,000,000
-1,500,000
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Q3 2013
Leasing
Historical
activity
asking
vs. sublease
vs. effective
vacant rents
available space
YTD Leasing Activity
s.f.
Sublease space
4,200,000
3,500,000
2,800,000
2,100,000
1,400,000
700,000
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Q3 2013
Tenant perspective
Landlords remain confident with concessions mildly tightening. For the
best positioned buildings/spaces, rates are shifting upwards. However,
overall pricing levels still remain favorable for the largest, crme of the
crop credit tenants. Within the CBD, challenges persist for the biggest
occupiers with high quality demand space requirements i.e., the waning
volume of large contiguous offices with premium views.
CBD
$50
CBD
Suburbs
$ p.s.f.
$ .p.s.f.
Landlord perspective
Quarterly tour activity points to tenant expansion movement with a desire
to trade up to better quality space. Tenants opening new business lines,
at least from national users, indicate a desire for shorter terms i.e., two to
three year commitments. Landlord confidence momentum continues in
the Brickell, Downtown and increasingly the Coral Gables market. While
most pricing increases have been in place for the last year, bumps in
asking rates continue to implemented quarterly by both Trophy and Tier
II Class A landlords.
$45
$40
$35
Suburbs
$40
$30
$30
$25
$20
$20
$15
$10
$10
$5
$0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2008
Suburbs
CBD
2011
2012
Q3 2013
8
6
2
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
Suburbs
26
14
20,000 50,000 s.f.
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
8
2
2
3
0
> 20 0,000
s.f.
10
2010
100,000 200,000
s.f.
CBD
2008
2009
# of blocks
months
$0
Q3 2013
50,000 100,000
s.f.
2008
Q3 2013
2013
Submarket*
2014
2015
2016
2017
Downtown - CBD
Peaking
market
Brickell,
Downtown
(CBD)
Rising
market
Tenant leverage
Landlord leverage
Brickell - CBD
Falling
market
Bottoming
market
Balanced
conditions
Tenant-favorable
conditions
Coral Gables
(Suburban)
Address
Submarket
s.f. Type
Miami Center
Downtown CBD
31,000 Relocation
Downtown - CBD
30,000 New
Molina Healthcare
Westside Plaza
Airport Suburban
27,000 New
Airport Suburban
24,000 Relocation
Columbus Center
19,500 New
15,000 New
Downtown CBD
14,000 New
Marcum
Downtown CBD
10,000 Renewal
VS Brooks, Inc.
255 Alhambra
8,300 Expansion
Submarket
Buyer / Seller
s.f.
$ p.s.f.
Coconut Grove
(Suburban)
75,000
$733
Coral Gables
(Suburban)
161,000
$273
Brickell (CBD)
Jamestown Properties/
Millennium Partners
258,767
$200
*Partial interest
(23.62%)
Methodology: Inventory includes all Class A and Class B office properties > 30,000 square feet,
excluding most condo and all medical, government owned and owner occupied buildings
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