CNI Publications; Weekly Plattern

Weekly summary

Vol -1, No-I, 20 Feb, 2015, 09 pages

Editorial
Rolls is on hence there is volatility. We expect this will
continue till Monday post which we see there could
be smart recovery till Budget. Nifty may scale to 9200
9300 on Budget. There is huge negativity in the
street. This itself could be a big driver. No 1 knows
what to expect from UNION BUDGET and how this
will help the country. CNI will publish its likely
BUDGET next week in special features.
Market rally was very specific without giving any
gains to small and retail investors. In fact, there is big
fear in the street that Nifty might correct 10% post
Budget as street believes that the budget
expectations are priced in. However I am very clear in
my mind that Govt is set to push reforms through
Budget and post budget through ordinances.
Reversal of GAAR, rate cut and falling inflation will
help Govt to achieve the motives. Defence and
Railways will be 2 sectors I would bet on. Can
suggest to add even MFG companies. I will avoid
metal, auto, real estate and infra stocks. Real estate
is connected with real income growth and infra
depends on sector policy which can take hit on any
given day. There cannot be overall growth without
major sectors participating. I would stick with bottom
up approach and stock specific. Defence, Railway,
Engg, small IT, Plastic engg, retail and offshore will
be my best bets. I will not name companies but you
can identify.
Long considered a laggard, India is seeing a lift in its
stock market as multinational companies look to
expand operations there or start new ones -nytimes.
This shows how the world is looking at INDIA. The
fact however remains what I have said in the first
para.

Cni Research Limited

Change of the week

20-Feb-15

Rise /Gain

Sensex

29231

137

Nifty

8833

27

FII

DII

16-Feb-15

(1.98)

280.7

18-Feb-14

3958

327.8

19-Feb-15

1542

(195.7)

20-Feb-15

(89.4)

204.8

5409

618.3

Total

Turnover (` Cr)
FII

DII

Combined

13-Feb-15

41,901.1

13,236.7

55,137

13-Feb-15

Advances

www.cniglobalbiz.com

721

Declines
718

Ratio
1.00

Will these bears heed this advice? In a market where

both are required to make it a fun place, seems
difficult. At every rise they feel, the bears ,I mean, that
this is it and indulge in shorting. Similarly at every fall
the bulls stock up their positions. Hence the tussle,
eternal.
Something of this nature is being played out in the
arena these days. A kind of tug-of-war. Who will
win...let us wait and watch but the bias is in favour of
the bulls.
Corrections will ensue which will help remove weak
hands and make the markets stronger as they garner
strength for the next move up. There are still enough
sceptics in this market making my case for rising
markets stronger. The markets will continue to defy
these bears and only when the staunchest bear turns
bull will the markets turn. Still some time off though
Liquidity continues to flood the market. Japan may
introduce yet another stimulus. Just imagine what it
can do to a system already awash in liquidity. Where
is the question of markets falling in such conditions.
Those in a country like India with falling inflation,
interest rates and rising growth. Difficult unless the
govt decides to commit harakiri.

9000. So long as retail do not get exit from earlier

stuck stocks they will not return in the market

5 Top Gainer
Stock

20-Feb-15

16-Feb-15

SUZLON ENERGY

25.6

19.1

33.6

JINDAL STE

193.9

151.9

27.6

PIPAVAV DOC

83.3

65.3

27.5

JPPOWER

12.2

10.6

15.4

IDBI BANK

76.2

67.4

13.1

5 Top Losers
Stock

20-Feb-15

16-Feb-15

CESC LTD

612.7

697.9

12.2

RASOYA PROTEIN

0.55

0.62

11.2

BALKRISH IND

652.1

708.5

7.9

KAJARIA CER

747.3

807.4

7.4

HEROMOTOCO

2659.8

2852.5

6.7

Company
COAL
PNB
ICICI
HINDALCO
HERO HONDA
Top 5 Picks By CNI 'B' Group
Company

Irrespective of US QE hot money is going out of US

and now getting shifter to 3 new destinations. JAPAN,
Europe and INDIA. India no one could match my
predictions from time to time. Now let me tell you
EUROPE will be recovering very fast post QE from
EUROPE.
But for us INDIA is the market to remain invested. My
Bellard Pier story is still far away. Except few
operators and FII no 1 could make big money so far
in INDIA even though Nifty had moved from 6000 to

Cni Research Limited

% Loss

Top 5 Picks By CNI 'A' Group

Expiry and budgets both around the corner. Both

catalysts and ingredients for volatility. Fasten your
seat belts folks...turbulence ahead. At the end the
bulls will be singing...him late hai to of an se kashti
nikal ke...is desh KO rakhna mere bullo sambhal ke.
Just 18 months back I had told you JAPAN will lead
the global rally as JAPAN is set to recover very fast.
My predictions came true. JAPAN grew fastest which
is seen from exports nos and no of IPO in JAPAN.

% Gain

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MUKUND ENG
KSB PUMP
RASI ELECTRODES
CMI
RMCL

My suggestion to the F M to all some grass root changes and kill the IPO monopoly of big merchant bankers.
They should allow Rs 10 kind IPO which will go to many small entrepreneurs looking to grow in INDIA and this
is the only way we can combat CHINA in terms of growth. IF you allow only IPO sizes of 700 to 1000 crs then
for sure the disequilibrium of wealth will rise further which is not the agenda of MODI Govt.
Nifty has come close to 9000 and the call put ratio suggest crossing 9000 could be a stretched view. We are
now entering the settlement week and hence there will be volatility. If we cross 8930 then for sure we will cross
9000 in this settlement and in that case we can see 9200 on expiry.
As regards traders they are short in market as they expect market to fall 10% post BUDGET. By and large
people are expecting good budget but they do not know the definition of good budget. I feel the process of
reforms have begun and the rate cut era has started hence expecting this kind of correction and going short is
suicidal. Buy dips should be your strategy. We have not increased exposure in A gr shares since last 2
months as it is not paying returns. Traders are screwed everywhere.
What is important for me to see the reforms process. COAL auction will generate huge money which no Govt
in India had even dreamed. This auction is online. Transparent. The money will go dyeing states. States will
use these funds for states development and this will lead to huge upside for the country as state finances
needs to improve if INDIA needs to grow faster.
I believe in next 12 months we may see 8 pc GDP growth and be default we can see Nifty at 12000 in 12
months. There are still 100s of B gr stocks which will give 500 to 1000% returns. Please remind many stocks
which I had recommended in the past have given 1000% returns. Which stocks I will not spell out in this
session any more.
Ruk Jana nahi tu kahin haar ke... Ke kaanto pe chal ke milenge saye bahar ke...a very nice and motivating
song, wonderfully rendered by the legend Kishor Kumar. But going continuously short on the market and then
singing this would not help. The pain of seeing ones pile of money depleting on a daily basis is hell and stress
can cause piles(double trouble what).
Respect the market and respect price. Bhav Bhagwan hai is a tenet one must never forget.
The same culprits or the usual suspects are still making headlines. China,Greece and Russia...China is
preparing for a soft landing but will it manage? Talks of devaluing the yuan are doing rounds. Exports will pick
up but other satellite countries will suffer,suffer badly. Indian textile cos will bear the brunt. Importing cos will be
the hardest hit and GDP estimates will take a dip.
Greece has really been Euro's Achilles heel and continues to dog and bog Europe. Demands of the Troika are
stiff which the new Premier is trying to water down. Both parties know the dangers and so a positive outcome
is likely...will take time but will happen.
Russia talks with a forked tongue. Difficult to gauge next move but they know this is not the time for a full faced
face off. Not with oil prices being what they are.
Hopes built on budget. Holds promise. Post the Delhi drubbing the govt knows it must now deliver else the
base it us creating will soon wither away. This it cannot afford. The whole world and the neighbors expect a
correction post budget. What if it does not. The blow out budget,which is expected,may prompt new retail
investors to enter the fray. This in addition to FII flows will propel the markets to rise as if on steroids. Is there
any point in then saying Kaanta laga,hai laga..bungle ke peechhey Teri teji peechhey...
Oil heading for 70 usd and INDIAN Govt investing Rs 1.5 lac crs in OIL exploration. Where is the
infrastructure..? Will Govt invite Tide Water USA, Bofkalis Netherland and Bourbon France to provide support
system to E and P players. GOSL will definitely a stock to watch for next 1 decade being the only co from

Cni Research Limited

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INDIA to cater this kind of services. Best part is that this co withstood the competition from above 3 MNC's for
over a decade which means this co has proved on capability. There is something coming in BUDGET for this
sector as GOVT has stressed for investment

Market back to 8800. We had told you earlier Delhi election was just a trigger to panic the traders and hit their
stop-losses. Punters accumulated stocks at lower levels.
Budget just 15 days away and we believe nifty will see new highs in coming days. Bank nifty will reverse and
midcap will fly. So stay invested

Cni Research Limited

www.cniglobalbiz.com

Next Weeks Events

GLOBAL STORY

Monday, 23-Feb-2015
Existing Home Sales
Tuesday,24-Feb-2015
Consumer Confidence
S&P Case-shiller HPI
Wednesday,25-Feb-2015
New Home Sales
EIA Petroleum Status
Thursday,26-Feb-2015
Jobless Claim
Durable Goods
Friday, 27-Feb-2015
GDP

Against all odd market reversed back to 8900. It

was just CNI conviction that market will reverse and
once again we- re bank on target. Next Saturday is
budget day market is open we believe market will
stay volatile in current week so advise to stay away
from street and concentrate on specific stock.
Completely avoid F&O. We believe budget is just
passing through trigger and market may fall by 200300 pts after budget. So watch out.
The Dow and S&P 500 ended at record highs on
Friday while the Nasdaq notched an eighth straight
day of gains after Greek and euro zone finance
ministers reached a deal to extend heavily indebted
Greece's financial
Rolls is on hence there is volatility. We expect this
will continue till Monday post which we see there
could be smart recovery till Budget. Nifty may scale
to 9200 9300 on Budget. There is huge negativity in
the street. This itself could be a big driver. No 1
knows what to expect from UNION BUDGET and
how this will help the country. CNI will publish its
likely BUDGET next week in special features.
Many mid-cap have started rallying 20-30% in a
week. Suzlon, Pipavav, JPPOWER all are rallying.
Same way many CNI recommended stock a year
before like walchand at 55 is CMP 250, Brigade at
60 cmp 160 and tata metaliks at 40 cmp 140. So
we advise to just put your money in midcap stock
as large cap will take your 15-20% of capital in a
series. Sign on to CNI exclusive street call to get
our latest stock advise.
Have a good weekend.

Cni Research Limited

www.cniglobalbiz.com

Global Indices
Country

Indices

Date

Index

Net Change

Change

Hong Kong

Hang Seng

20/2

24,832.08

+47.20

+0.19

Singapore

Straits Times

20/2

3,435.66

+19.75

+0.58

South Korea

Seoul Composite

20/2

4,955.97

+31.27

+0.63

United States

NASDAQ

20/2

18,140.44

+154.67

+0.86

United States

DJIA

20/2

2,110.30

+12.85

+0.61

United States

S&P 500

20/2

18,332.30

+67.51

+0.37

Japan

Nikkei 225

20/2

6,915.20

+26.30

+0.38

United Kingdom

FTSE 100

20/2

1,807.87

-2.22

-0.12

Malaysia

KLSE Composite

20/2

5,400.10

+9.66

+0.18

Indonesia

Jakarta Composite

20/2

1,603.45

+3.49

+0.22

Thailand

SET

20/2

4,830.90

-2.38

-0.05

France

CAC 40

20/2

11,050.64

+48.70

+0.44

Germany

DAX

20/2

9,436.74

+48.16

+0.51

Argentina

MerVal

20/2

51,237.70

-56.33

-0.11

Brazil

Bovespa

20/2

43,551.26

+319.84

+0.74

Mexico

IPC

20/2

2,450.94

+24.89

+1.03

Austria

ATX

20/2

3,624.71

-0.26

-0.01

Belgium

BEL-20

20/2

469.85

+0.06

+0.01

Netherlands

AEX General

20/2

1,103.66

-2.44

-0.22

Spain

Madrid General

20/2

8,892.17

-8.01

-0.09

Switzerland

Swiss Market

20/2

5,845.63

-24.20

-0.41

Australia

All Ordinaries

20/2

3,246.91

+24.54

+0.76

China

Shanghai Composite

20/2

7,825.39

+21.94

+0.28

Philippines

PSE Composite

20/2

7,314.91

+8.74

+0.12

Sri Lanka

All Share

20/2

9,529.51

+33.20

+0.35

Taiwan

Taiwan Weighted

20/2

1,310.82

+3.21

+0.25

East Egypt

CMA

20/2

1,961.45

+3.22

+0.16

Cni Research Limited

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Bulk deal
Company Name

Date

BSE Code

ACKNIT

20-Feb-15

530043

KALABEN PUSHKARABHAI

10000

55.6

ACKNIT

20-Feb-15

530043

PRAKASH ASHOKKUMAR R

31372

61.17

ACKNIT

20-Feb-15

530043

KALABEN PUSHKARABHAI

12607

62.08

ACKNIT

20-Feb-15

530043

PRAKASH ASHOKKUMAR R

31475

57.63

AMSONS

20-Feb-15

538861

VINAHAST TRADING PRI

80000

6.29

AMSONS

20-Feb-15

538861

VINAHAST TRADING PRI

50000

5.39

AMSONS

20-Feb-15

538861

BATHLA AND COMPANY P

120000

6.35

BHANDHOS

20-Feb-15

512608

VALUE PLUS SHARES N

41166

31.16

BHANDHOS

20-Feb-15

512608

VALUE PLUS SHARES N

74849

30.21

CHMBBRW

20-Feb-15

512301

NEERAJ CHAWLA

73638

10.2

Titagarh Wagons Limited

20-Feb-15

TWL

N.K. SECURITIES

153818

617.79

Titagarh Wagons Limited

20-Feb-15

TWL

AJAY ASSET MANAGEMEN

112295

630.42

Titagarh Wagons Limited

20-Feb-15

TWL

AXIS EQUITIES PRIVAT

137326

621.92

Titagarh Wagons Limited

20-Feb-15

TWL

ESTEE ADVISORS PVT L

129394

618.06

Titagarh Wagons Limited

20-Feb-15

TWL

N.K. SECURITIES

153818

618.12

Hero MotoCorp Limited

19-Feb-15

HEROMOTOCO

BRIJ MOHAN LAL OM PA

3546400

2664.01

Hero MotoCorp Limited

19-Feb-15

HEROMOTOCO

LAZARD ASSET MANAGEM

1503000

2664.04

KSS Limited

19-Feb-15

KSERASERA

RAMESHKUMAR KALIDAS

727035

3.86

KSS Limited

19-Feb-15

KSERASERA

RAMESHKUMAR KALIDAS

1099000

3.93

LML Ltd.

19-Feb-15

LML

ANJALI CAPFIN PRIVAT

900000

8.48

Atlas Cycles (Haryana)

18-Feb-15

ATLASCYCLE

URMILA DOSHI

21197

253.88

Atlas Cycles (Haryana)

18-Feb-15

ATLASCYCLE

URMILA DOSHI

28197

251.54

Century Plyboards (Ind

18-Feb-15

CENTURYPLY

PREM KUMAR BHAJANKA

2000000

206.85

Hero MotoCorp Limited

18-Feb-15

HEROMOTOCO

BRIJ MOHAN LAL OM PA

7000000

2664.93

KSS Limited

18-Feb-15

KSERASERA

RAMESHKUMAR KALIDAS

1075000

3.8

Manaksia Limited

18-Feb-15

MANAKSIA

SUBHAM AGARWAL

1100000

64

Manaksia Limited

18-Feb-15

MANAKSIA

PONNI TREXIM PVT LTD

1100000

64

Mukta Arts Ltd

18-Feb-15

MUKTAARTS

SHAH & SHAH

155632

25.01

Mukta Arts Ltd

18-Feb-15

MUKTAARTS

SHAH & SHAH

140601

25.05

Repro India Limited

18-Feb-15

REPRO

VIJAY KISHANLAL KEDI

106379

402.19

Cni Research Limited

Client Name

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Deal Type

Quantity

Price (Rs)

Call put option

Option Month Strike Price

PUT
Volume

CALL

Best
Buy
1.75

Best
Sell
2.5

LTP

OI

2.35

32900

Change
OI(%)
-0.38

Volume
0

Best
Buy
466.5

Best
Sell
634.55

LTP

OI

407

1900

Change
OI(%)
0

February - 8250.00

6800

February - 8300.00

1621100

2.3

2.45

2.3

2131850

-4.1

60500

544.1

548.1

547

245900

-4.44

February - 8350.00

11450

2.75

2.95

34125

-14.58

365

534.95

324.45

100

February - 8400.00

4218075

2.95

3.05

2.95

3070450

-1.81

34975

446.3

450.3

449.5

210075

-5.29

February - 8450.00

42050

2.9

3.85

3.85

240225

-5.45

200

380.6

401.95

401

2400

-5.88

February - 8500.00

6804050

4.7

4.9

4.7

3612525

-6.82

248200

344.4

350.8

348.05

465700

-2.15

February - 8550.00

352550

6.15

6.5

6.15

108900

-5.51

1375

288.9

337.6

297.7

7475

-5.08

February - 8600.00

11404950

8.9

8.95

8.95

3891100

5.71

437800

250.2

253.95

253.65

631750

-15.37

February - 8650.00

1167800

14.15

14.35

14.1

230350

17.92

15450

200

212.75

207.9

42050

-15.94

February - 8700.00

20920350

23

23.3

23

3894375

4.21

2010550

164.3

166.4

166.4

1623975

-12.42

February - 8750.00

2431625

33.75

34

34.1

565975

19.04

66975

128.1

130

134.8

72225

-5.03

February - 8800.00

35795150

51.75

52.2

52.15

4301525

-0.28

10544950

97.65

98

98

2901950

7.87

February - 8850.00

2796725

73

74

73

480875

3.55

1606025

69.3

70.4

70

609325

56.39

February - 8900.00

19750000

98.15

99.3

99.35

2613425

-9.77

36962850

49

49.8

49.75

5403575

16.78

February - 8950.00

223325

130.45

134

130.2

71075

11.01

2945450

31.35

31.8

32

506750

38.74

February - 9000.00

3553900

166.95

168

167.3

1934825

-4.58

35122350

20.4

20.45

20.45

7303175

19.99

February - 9050.00

3675

195.5

254.5

210

7375

5.73

1594350

12.6

12.75

12.6

292050

42.34

February - 9100.00

167300

250.35

258.2

257

169900

-0.76

15815800

7.1

7.2

7.1

4146650

13.37

February - 9150.00

325

62.5

348.95

300.6

200

854350

3.75

3.7

683850

31

February - 9200.00

66350

344

347.85

348.1

359225

-0.41

8601825

3.1

3.2

3.1

3954225

3.12

February - 9250.00

331

458.95

385

425

137175

2.15

2.25

2.25

165850

February - 9300.00

15900

443.25

450.45

446.9

45400

2.31

2001950

1.6

1.7

1.45

2894450

-0.85

February - 9350.00

239.85

558.95

470

500

42775

1.4

1.6

1.4

40575

9.96

February - 9400.00

4700

541.5

550.25

549.8

54925

0.27

479225

1.25

1.35

1.25

1119000

-1.36

February - 9450.00

331.9

743.1

100

0.85

1.7

0.75

8825

-1.12

February - 9500.00

89750

643.55

647.9

645.1

384425

-8.31

343300

1.05

1.05

1239425

-6.39

Cni Research Limited

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