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The Bell
Economy December 14, 2009
INDU PA Consolation Evident at Macro Front
Target Price: PKR251.0/Share Pakistan’s economy is on its way to show a significant short‐term improvement with macro data
Closing Price: PKR204.4/Share demonstrating strong stabilization. In our view, despite some of the mid‐term risks including
higher power tariff and delayed materialization of foreign funding, economic outlook has
improved significantly from what it was at the start of FY10. However, we believe that the
Trade Deficit Summary uncertain political and security situation is the only major risk to growth prospect.
5M - 5M -
USD bn YoY Trade deficit narrows further
FY10 FY09
Imports 13.1 17.0 -23% According to FBS, trade deficit has come down from USD8.8bn in 5MFY09 to USD5.4bn in
Exports 7.6 8.2 -7% 5MFY10 (down 37.6%), primarily on the basis of 23% reduction in imports (to USD13.08bn).
Trade Deficit 5.5 8.8 -38% Moreover, during November 2009, exports have also inched up slightly by 1%YoY to USD1.54bn,
Source: FBS
marking the start of trickle down of global economic consolidation.
Remittances: Up and trickling
IMF Quantitative Targets During 5MFY10, workers’ remittances have increased by 29% to USD3.8bn. During the same
Sep-09 period, remittances from UK have more than doubled (to USD408mn), while expats in GCC and
Target Actual Saudi Arabia cumulatively sent home 29% higher remittances (to USD2.1bn). Remittances from
Floor on SBP NFA (USD 3,200 5,694 Dubai have also increased by 4% to USD375mn in 5MFY10, though the comparison of Nov‐09
mn)
and Nov‐08 shows USD18.7mn lower remittance inflow.
Ceiling on SBP NDA 1,300 1,115
(PKR bn)
Ceiling on Deficit 1,130 1,224
Moody’s praises economic stabilization
Monetization (PKR bn)
On 10th December, Moody’s investor services maintained Pakistan’s “B2” sovereign rating and
Ceiling on Budget Deficit 194 224
(PKR bn) “Stable” outlook. This action is taken on the back of strong short term recovery, improving
stabilization indicators and weakening external risks. According to Moody’s, Pakistan’s current
Source: IMF, Elixir Research rating and outlook are way better than many rating peers (B2/B3 rated countries).
IMF SBA: A positive review expected
IMF board of directors is scheduled to meet on 23rd December for the finalization of USD1.2bn
Key Inflation indicators tranche. Out of the four key targets, Pakistan has comfortably met two; namely floor on SBP
Nov- Nov- 5M - 5M - NFA (target: USD3.2bn, actual: USD5.7bn) and ceiling on SBP NDA (target: PKR1.3tn, actual:
09 08 FY09 FY08 PKR1.1tn). Moreover, most of the issues related to structural reforms have also been settled
Headline 10.5% 24.7% 10.3% 24.7% with the Fund. Although targets of deficit monetization and budget deficit have been missed,
Food 11.1% 30.4% 10.0% 32.0% reason was the unexpectedly higher war‐on‐terror related spending. We believe USD1.2bn
NFNE 10.6% 18.9% 12.0% 17.1% tranche will be disbursed immediately after the finalization of review.
SPI 10.7% 29.8% 9.0% 32.1% Intergovernmental consensus on revenue sharing formula
WPI 12.5% 19.9% 3.6% 30.2%
Source: FBS
A consensus NFC award has been finalized between federal and provincial governments after a
long delay. Furthermore, revenue sharing formula has changed and now the divisible pool
revenue will be distributed among provinces on the basis of population (82%), poverty (10.3%),
revenue collection (5%) and area (2.7%). Previously, revenue was shared solely on population
basis. Although not directly related to the capital markets, we believe that intergovernmental
Haider Hussain consensus is a very positive development and should improve overall sentiment.
Economist
hhussain@elixirsec.com
(+92‐21) 3242 3104
Please refer to the last page for Analyst Certification and other important disclosures.
THE BELL
Inflation: Relative improvement obvious, though pressure may re‐emerge
After the culmination of high base effect, headline inflation has inched up from 8.8%YoY in Oct‐09 to 10.5%YoY in Nov‐09 primarily due to
higher food prices during Eid season. Although aggregate inflationary pressure in 5MFY10 is far less severe than that in 5MFY09, higher
power tariff and the corresponding chain reaction may keep the inflation in double digits during rest of FY10. Nevertheless, even after an
escalated power tariff, if international oil prices remain below USD78/bbl, GoP may close FY10 with average inflation around 10.5%.
Political & security risk: The last straw
After 7th December, Judiciary has accelerated its efforts to take up the cases pertaining to NRO. Moreover, the issue of written‐off loans
also seems to be gaining heat. We believe that the present political and public climate is demanding a fast resolution as GoP is not in a
position to drag it further. In our view, 3QFY10 may witness some of the conclusive news in this regard. On the other hand, despite
successful army operations in Swat and North Waziristan, major cities are still feeling the brunt with a series of bomb blasts. Until
Pakistan army takes a complete control of terrorists’ strongholds in tribal belt, we believe that security threat may continue to exist for
urban centers.
Economic & Political News
Research, (+92‐21) 3242 3104
Trade deficit shows 37.57% recovery
Trade deficit declined by 37.57% during 5MFY10 as compared to the same period of last year largely owing to reduction in imports.
Provisional figures released by the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) showed that trade deficit for July‐November was USD5.47bn as
compared USD8.77bn for the same period of last year.
Report sought over delay in gas exploration
The government has sought a report from the Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) over ‘inordinate delay’ in the
exploration of Pakistan’s largest gas field in Balochistan that has the capacity to make all imported fuel options redundant and save
billions of dollars in foreign exchange.
Treasury Report
Money Market
Faisal Sarwar, fsarwar@elixirsec.com (+92‐21) 3240 1032
Money market started at the level of 12.00‐12.25% (yesterday closing 9.50%). Later on, SBP announced 7‐day OMO and
injected PKR119bn @ 11.85%. However, even after an injection, market went up to 12.40% by the end of the day due to liquidity shoratge.
In Call, major deals remain around the level of repo. In tenor, 1‐week traded between 11.90‐12.10% and 2‐Week between 11.95‐12.10%.
Moreover, due to the last month of calendar year, 1‐Month remained in demand and traded between 12.00‐12.10%. PIB 10‐year
started trading between 12.78‐12.75% and closed at 12.80‐12.75% while 1‐year T‐bill changed hands between 12.15‐12.08%.
FX Market
2 ELIXIR SECURITIES PAKISTAN December 14, 2009
THE BELL
Analyst Certification
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accurately reflect his/her personal views about all of the subject companies/securities and (2) no part of his/her compensation was, is
or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
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3 ELIXIR SECURITIES PAKISTAN December 14, 2009