Nigeria opposition candidate wins presidency in

historic race

Re
sults Tuesday showed former military dictator Muhammadu Buhari defeating
incumbent Goodluck Jonathan.
By Kevin Sief-March 31 at 2:20 PM

KADUNA, Nigeria In a historic moment for Africas most populous country, former
military dictator Muhammadu Buhari won Nigerias presidential election, the first
time in 16 years of democracy that an opposition candidate has defeated a sitting
president.
With ballots from all but one of Nigerias 36 states counted, Buhari had won 51.7
percent of the vote, or 2 million more votes than President Goodluck Jonathan. Buhari
is also predicted to win the one northern state remaining, where he had broad support.
Lai Mohammed, a spokesman for Buharis party, the All Progressives Congress, said
Jonathan called to concede. Aviation Minister Osita Chidoka, a Jonathan ally,
confirmed to the Associated Press that the call had occurred.

Buhari, 72, will assume power in Africas richest country at a time of crippling uncertainty
as public revenue shrinks because of the falling price of oil and a vicious insurgency
threatens the countrys northeast. He has fashioned himself as a sandal-clad populist
in a political class known for its exorbitant tastes and high-profile corruption scandals.
But his first challenge might come before taking office, if supporters of Jonathan
contest the election results, either in court or the streets, as factions of the ruling
Peoples Democratic Party have already threatened.

Object 1

Following his historic win, Muhammadu Buhari will take over a country
wrestling with insurgency and financial troubles. (Reuters)
Buharis victory marks the maturation of Nigerian democracy, the emergence of a
genuine, competitive two-party system. Before this years election, many saw the
People's Democratic Party as having an aura of invincibility.
[Who are the two candidates running to become the president of Nigeria?]
Across the country, Nigerians have waited anxiously since Saturdays votefor both the
results and the reaction to them. The military has been dispatched to areas of concern
in preparation for unrest. With Buharis victory, many worried in particular about the
Niger Delta, Jonathans birthplace, which has a history of militant activity.
After the 2011 vote, hundreds of people were killed in post-election clashes.
[Read: 4 reasons you should care about Nigerias election]
Nigerian politics is still largely divided along religious and geographic lines. Jonathan,
a Christian from the south, and Buhari, a Muslim from the north, had been expected to
do well in their traditional strongholds. But frustration with the current
administration, which in some places cuts across those divides, gave Buhari an upper
hand.
Buharis religion gained him no support among Islamist insurgents in the northeast.
He appeared to be a target in bombings here last year which have been attributed to

the Boko Haram militant group.

Buhari has been deeply critical of Jonathans failure to defeat Boko Haram, which has
grown steadily since 2009 in the absence of a concerted military campaign, killing at
least 10,000 people. Buhari has played up his background as a military man,
suggesting that he will reform the countrys fledgling security forces.
In the past two months, a counterinsurgency operation backed by Niger, Cameroon and
Chad appears to have driven the Islamist militants from key strongholds in the north.
But it will be up to the next president to root out the militants from their rural
hideouts.
Buhari has articulated a commitment to reforming Nigerias public institutions, which
have long been plagued by corruption. That message appears to have resonated with
voters. But following through on that plan will be an enormous challenge, as Nigerias
patronage networks are entrenched. In 2013, the Central Bank chairman accused the
government of losing $20 billion in revenue, a scandal that was never fully resolved.
Nigerians expect to see immediate change. They expect to see corruption end right
away, but corruption is an institutional problem here. It is a way of life, said Idayat
Hassan, director of the Centre for Democracy and Development, an Abuja-based think
tank.
Many of Buharis supporters expect him not only to rid the country of graft but to
arrest previous leaders for their role in corrupt activities. But doing so could widen the
countrys ethno-political rift.
During his rule from 1984 to 1985, Buhari, 72, attempted to crack down on those he
saw as guilty of corruption and malfeasance. He set up military tribunals that
sentenced hundreds of people to prison, actions that some viewed as necessary but
many others considered repressive. He also limited press freedom. He called his
approach to governance then a war on indiscipline.
But Nigeria has evolved since Buharis military regime. This is his fourth time running
for president, and he has traded green military attire for a traditional flowing robe.
At a speech in London last month, he described himself as a converted democrat who
is ready to operate under democratic norms.
His victory was celebrated across northern Nigeria, where the primary Muslim
population came out in droves for Buhari, who was born in northern Katsina state.
Buhari has emphasized the need for secular rule and chose Yemi Osinbajo, a Christian
pastor, as his running mate. But Buhari will still have to navigate Nigerias religious
fault line, which has been reflected in sensational headlines about his plans to
Islamicize Nigeria.

Any post-election strife in the oil-rich Delta region would not only affect a peaceful
transfer of power but also strike a blow to the governments revenue stream. Thirtyfive percent of Nigerias GDP comes from oil and gas revenue, according to the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
On Monday, the United States and Britain said Nigerias election results may be
subject to deliberate political interference, a harsh warning that raised questions
about whether the results would be perceived as legitimate.
The question has always been whether the loser in this election would accept the
results or not, said John Campbell, a former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria who is now
at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. The answer to that questions is
unclear.
This time, though, some are predicting a more peaceful outcome than in 2011.
Before the polling, Jonathan announced in a radio broadcast that Nigerians should
graciously accept the election outcome.
My sense is that demonstrations will take place, but the level of violence wont be
much, said Chom Bagu, country director for the Search for Common Ground, a
Washington-based group that works on conflict resolution. There will be controlled
demonstrations and people will be directed to the courts.