Market Outlook for Renewables in Ontario

Green Profit Switch

March 30, 2015

Power Advisory LLC

Travis Lusney
Tel: 647-680-1154 Email: tlusney@poweradvisoryllc.com

POWER ADVISORY LLC

Power Advisory LLC is a leading North American management consulting firm that
specializes in electricity sector matters and solutions. With offices in Boston and
Toronto, we offer a highly qualified and focused team that provides market-tested
and value-driven consulting support. Our advice is based on an understanding of
fundamental economic drivers shaped by electricity market structures, generation
technologies, regulatory frameworks, government policies and market behavior.
A sample of the Toronto offices current activities:
Assisting multiple clients in developing strategy for the Large Renewable Procurement I
Request for Proposal (LRP I RFP) process.
Co-leading the Solar Development Evolution Working Group which is focused on
assessing best practices for customer based solar PV generation and determining what
should be applied in Ontario. Also determining requirements for transition in the
existing FIT program to support long term solar PV development.
Analysis and commentary on the proposed Demand Response Auction and Capacity
Market from the IESO.
Electricity system review for the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador prior to the
interconnection for the first time of the island of Newfoundland to the North American
electricity system.
Guidance for Combined Heat and Power (CHP) project development.
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WHERE ARE WE NOW

Liberal government in 2nd year of majority government.
Main focus is on deficit reduction and transit funding.

Ontario Power Authority (OPA) has been absorbed by the Independent Electricity
System Operator (IESO).
New executive leadership (Bruce Campbell CEO) expected to refocus the energy agency.
Minister directive power will remain but ability to implement is reduced via market rule
change process.

IESO has initiated stakeholder engagement on Demand Response (DR) Auctions

and Capacity Market (also referred to as Capacity Auction).
Shift away from centralized procurement with specific government direction.

Small FIT program and microFIT program have clear procurement direction until
2017. Large Renewable Procurement (LRP) I is underway.
All nuclear generating stations (Pickering GS, Darlington GS and Bruce GS) are
currently operational.
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ONTARIO IS LONG ON CAPACITY

HOEP - Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Hourly Ontario Energy Price ($/MWh)

$15

$10

$5

$0

-$5

-$10

-$15
1

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hour of Day (Hour Ending)

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WHERE WILL WE BE IN 2017

Liberal government entering last year of majority government.
Main focus will be on the upcoming election and smothering issues.

IESO will likely have launched DR Auctions and may have launched Capacity
Auction.
Market mechanisms are expected to secure resources to meet Ontarios reserve
requirement for supply adequacy.

Procurement mandates for the Small FIT program, microFIT program and LRP
have ended.
Nuclear generating assets begin retirement and refurbishment.
Pickering GS could be entering final year of service (license from CNSC is currently to
August 2018).
Darlington unit 2 and Bruce A unit 4 offline for refurbishment.

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ONTARIO WILL NEED CAPACITY

Indication of requirement for additional capacity,
beyond total resource commitment

Source: 2013 LTEP & Power Advisory

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ELECTRICITY MARKET RISKS FOR RENEWABLES

Ontario small solar procurement

Limited development and innovation opportunity.

Potential projects are segregated into different programs by size.
Programs require third party administration.
Heavy on front end activities.

Program pricing does not account for external market forces.

Exchange rates, import tariffs, interest rate changes.

Highly competitive market with many players from different backgrounds.

All players are competing for limited MWs.
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EXPERIENCES OUTSIDE ONTARIO

Benefits to offering variety of
opportunities.
Can continue to use program caps to
manage multiple procurements.
Easier to adjust to external market
factors.

Starting to recognize and determine

impact of high penetration of
customer based generation.
Standby charges.
Minimum bill.

Distributors are evolving into

Managers of distributed network.
Must properly value reliability
offering and manage risk of stranded
assets.
Investment in capacity to decrease vs
increasing for flexibility and
resilience.
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WHERE DOES THE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM NEED TO

EVOLVE TO
More customer centric choices.
Rate-payers have been consistent in preferring more choice.
Supports investment in distributed generation, energy storage, alternative reliability
benchmarks.

Provide multiple avenues for renewable development.

Different funding opportunities for different business models and customers.

Need for alignment with power system needs and values.

Integration with regional planning.

Fair cost allocation for value

Value of grid reliability is very high, however future investment in capacity in the grid
will need to be scrutinized.
The evolution of customer values and customer return expectations will influence
investment assessment for both regulated and unregulated businesses.

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