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Regression Analysis of Ship Characteristics


Occasional Paper
This Paper presents the results of statistical analyses of ship characteristics
which have been undertaken to provide input to models of ship costs and
operations in particular trades. Standard least squares regressions were
performed on the data to relate particular ship characteristics to deadweight.
Deadweight was selected as the common denominator for the regressions
because of its universal acceptance as a measure of ship size and because of
its wide use in the reporting of statistical information.

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Regression Analysis
of
Ship Characteristics
G.P. Piko

@ Commonwealth of Australia 1 9 8 0
ISBN

0 642 05820

Printedby C.J. THOMPSON,


Commonwealth

Government

Printer,

Canberra

FOREWORD

This paper has been published to disseminate information on


statistical analyses of ship characteristics undertaken by the
Bureau of Transport Economics. While information
of a similar
nature has been published, it is considered that the
comprehensiveness of the results presented in this paper \:ill
be of general interest.
The analyses were undertaken to provide input to supply oriented
studies into port infrastructure and port and shipping
operations. Because of this application the characteristics:

. length;
. breadth;
. draught; and
container capacity;
which all influence port infrastructure and operating costs,
have each been modelled as a function of deadweight tonnes; the
nearest measure to the economic usefulness of a ship. In
addition, the following characteristics have each been regressed
against deadweight:

. gross registered tons;


. net registered tons;
. age;

. power;
. speed.

and

Standard minimum least squares regression techniques were used


to generate models for each of the above characteristics for
each of the following ship types:

. container ships;
. roll on-roll off
. bulk carriers;

ships (ro-ro) ;

iii

.ore carriers;
. tankers;
. general cargo ships; and
. passenger ships.
Computer data tapes of Lloyds Register of Shipping (current
at May 1977) were used as the data source for the analyses.
Hence, the ships on which the models were
based are
representative of the world fleet. Details of the data
extraction, which required considerable computing effort, are
also described in the paper.
The analyses were performed and the report prepared by
Mr G.P. Piko of the Planning and Technology Branch under the
general supervision of Mr C.R. Sayers.
R.W.L. Wyers
Assistant Director
Planning and Technology
Bureau of Transport Economics
CANBERRA
December

1980

iv

CONTENTS
Page

iii

FOREWORD

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
CHAPTER 2 DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA AND OUTLINE

OF THE ANALYSIS
CHAPTER 3 DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
Length, breadth and draught

17
18

Tonnage
Age
Power
Speed
Container capacity

19

22
24

CHAPTER 4 CONCLUDING REMARKS


General
Limitations o f the results
ANNEX A MAIN CONTENTS
SHIPPING
ANNEX B

15

90
90
90

OF LLOYD'S REGISTER OF
10 2

DATA PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS

ANNEXCALTERNATIVEMODELS:REGRESSION
COEFFICIENTS AND STATISTICS

109

113

TABLES

Page
1

Length:
Regression
Coefficients

2Breadth:Regression

and Statistics

Coefficients and Statistics

Draught:
Regression
Coefficients

GrossRegisteredTons:RegressionCoefficients
and Statistics

and Statistics

92
93
94

95

NetRegisteredTons:RegressionCoefficients
96

and Statistics
RegressionCoefficients

and Statistics

97

Age:

7.1

Power:RegressionCoefficients

7.2

Power: Regression Coefficients and Statistics

Speed:RegressionCoefficientsandStatistics

100

Container
Capacity:
Regression

101

and Statistics

Coefficients and

Statistics

vi

98

99

FIGURES
Page
1

Fixed Format Card Image

10

VariableFormatCardImage

11

3 (a) Program DATAPREP1

12

3 (b) Program

DATAPREP2

13

3 (c)

Program DATAPREP3

14

Length v Deadweight.

Container Ships

26

II

l1

RO-ro Ships

27

I1

11

Bulk Carriers

28

11

I,

Ore Carriers

29

I1

11

Tankers

30

II

I1

General Cargo Ships

31

10

II

,I

Passenger Ships

32

Breadth v Deadweight. Container Ships

33

11
12

l1

,I

RO-ro Ships

34

13

I,

II

Bulk Carriers

35

14

I,

11

Ore Carriers

36

15

I1

II

Tankers

37

vii

Page

II
',

16

II

17

II

18Draught

Ships
Cargo
General

It

38

Ships
Passenger

39
40

v Deadweight.ContainerShips
RO-ro Ships

19

I1

20

11

21

11

11

Ore Carriers

43

22

II

II

Tankers

44

23

11

II

Ships
General
Cargo

45

24

11

II

25

41

Carriers
Bulk

42

Ships
Passenger

46

v Deadweight.Container
Ships

GrossRegisteredTons

26

II

11

11

II

27

11

II

11

II

RO- ro S h i p s

11

II

I1

I1

29

II

II

I1

30

11

11

II

49

Ore
Carriers

50

Tankers

51

General
Cargo Ships

viii

48

Bulk
Carriers

28

47

52

Page

31

Passenger
Ships

32

Net Registered Tons v Deadweight.

Container
Ships

54
55

33

II

It

IIII

RO- ro Sh i PS

34

II

II

II

Bulk
Carriers

35

II

36

II

37

l1

38

II

II

l1

II

II

11

11

l1

11

56

Ore
Carriers

57

Tankers

58

General
Cargo Ships

59

Passenger
Ships

39

53

Age v Deadweight. Container Ships

60
61

40

11

II

RO- ro S h i p s

62

41

11

Bulk Carriers

63

42

11

I,

Ore Carriers

64

43

11

It

Tanker-s

65

44

11

General Cargo Ships

66

ix

Page
45
46

II

Passenger
Ships

I1

67

Horsepower v Deadweight. HP

U.

(DWT)fi.E
Container

47

II

I1

48

II

I1

49

11

I1

50

I1

51

II

Carriers
Carriers

Ships

68

RO- ro Sh i ps

69

Bulk

70

Ore

71

Tankers

72

11

General Cargo

73

Ships

52

I1

II

Passenger

74

Ships

53

Horsepower v Deadweight. HP

U.

(DWT)fi.( V ) y

.E

Container

54
55

Ships

75

RO- ro Ships

76

Bulk
Carriers

77

56

Ore Carriers

78

57

Tankers

79

58

General Cargo
Sh i ps

80

Page
59

Horsepower v Deadweight.

60

Speed

61

11

62

81

Container Ships

82

I,

Ro-ro Ships

83

11

I1

Bulk Carriers

84

63

II

II

Ore Carriers

85

64

,I

I1

Tankers

86

65

I1

It

General Cargo Ships

87

66

It

I,

Passenger Ships

88

67

Deadweight.

Passenger Ships

Container Capacity

Deadweight

X1

89

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

The Bureau of Transport Economics(BTE) is currently undertaking


a number of shipping and port facility studies which require
the development of modelsof ship costs and operations in
particular trades.
This paper presents the results of
statistical analyses of ship characteristics which have been
undertaken to provide input to these models.
The source of the dataused in this project was Lloyd's Register
of Shipping, which consists of detailed information on over
60 000 ships and is considered to be representativeof the world
fleet. Lloyd's Register of Shipping records a comprehensive
range of data items. However, for some ships information is
not presented for every data item. The Register of Shipping
was obtained in the form of magnetic tape for computer analyses:
the version used for this project was current at May 1977.
Standard least squares regressions were performed on the data
to relate particular ship characteristics to deadweight.
Deadweight was selected as the common denominator
for the
regressions because of its universal acceptance as a measure
of ship size and because of its wide use in the reporting of
statistical information. The ship
characteristics which were
each regressed against deadweight were:
length;
. breadth;
draught;
gross registered tons (GRT);

.
.

. net registered tons (NRT);


. age;
. power;
. speed; and
. container capacity.

The length, breadth, draught and container capacity of ships


are of interest because they each influence the port facilities
required to handle a given ship. The power and speed
of ships
affect such factors as fuel consumption and travel time, and
therefore are of interest in many shipping studies.
Regressions on age are included to provide an indication of the
trend over time in the size of ships built. However, ships are
deleted from Lloyd's Register as they are withdrawn from service,
hence, the data consist of the ships stillin service at May
1977 rather than all the ships built before that time. This
means that the data do not necessarily provide
an accurate
description of the range of sizes of ships built in any given
year.
Deadweight is a more common measure of the carrying capacity
of a ship than either gross registered tons (GRT) or net
registered tons (NRT), hence, deadweight hasbeen used as the
independent variable. However, regressions have been carried
out which provide an indication of the relationship between
deadweight and GRT, and deadweight and NRT.
Regressions on the ship characteristics described above were
performed separately for seven ship types:

. container (fully cellular);


. roll on-roll off (ro-ro) ;
. bulk carrier;
. ore carrier;
. tanker;
. general cargo; and
. passenger.

The variation in the characteristics of ships from these


different categories is sufficiently great to justify analysing
each ship type separately.

Also, most port studies, including

those of the BTE, need to consider separately the facilities


for various ship types.
While the major aim of this project wasto provide a data base
which satisfied the requirements of the dependent BTE shipping
and port projects, an endeavour has been madeto present the
results in a format suitable for use by others working in related
fields. The presentation of results includes tabulation of the
regression coefficients and statistics for each model. However,
to further assist interpretation of the results a series of
figures is included which shows each regression model, together
with its 95 per cent confidence interval, superimposed on a plot
of the sample data. These figures not only illustrate the
relationship derived between each variableand deadweight, but
also provide other valuable information including:

. the

spread of the sample data on which the regression model


was based;

. the

range of the variables over which the regression


is valid;

. the

width of the 95 per cent prediction confidence intervals;

and

. the

upper limit o f the variable that occursin the sample data.

The information presented in this paper is intended to assist


those examining investment in shipping and port infrastructure.
For example, for a given increase in the depth of a channel a
regression equation will provide an indication of the maximum
deadweight of ships (of a given type) that would then be able
to use the channel. The plot of the sample data would indicate
whether there are, in fact, many ships of that size in service,
and therefore the likely demand for additional channeldepth.

CHAPTER 2

DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA AND OUTLINEOF THE ANALYSIS

Lloyd's Register of Shipping has been pubiished for many years.


It is constantly updated, newly built shipsbeing added and ships
withdrawn from service being deleted, in order to maintain an
accurate description of the vesselsin service around the world.
The version of Lloyd's Register purchased by the BTE was current
at May 1977 and is now held by the Department of Transport as
part of the sea transport information system.
Lloyd's Register attempts to provide extremely comprehensive
data on each ship. The full range of specifications sought for
inclusion in the Register is shown in Annex A, however, the
information on each ship falls broadly into the following
categories:

. name;
. owner and manager's name;
. detailed specification of
. detailed specification of
. ship type;
I

the hull;
the equipment and propulsion systems;

ship builder;
builder; and
country of registry.

. engine

This information is stored as a series of computercard images


which are each identified by a card type code and a sequence

number. The card


type code indicates the ship characteristics
that are to be found on a particular card.
In the event of the
information for a given ship characteristic filling a number
of cards, each card is distinguished by a sequence number. Annex
A shows the characteristics recordedin the Register and the
code number of the card on which each is to be found. The file
is structured so that all the information for the first ship
is recorded on a series of these cards which is then followed
by all the cards for the second ship, and so on.

Most data items are recorded in a clearly defined numeric or


alphanumeric field, which makes computer analysis convenient.
An example of a typical fixed format card of data is shown in
Figure 1. Characters 4-10 contain a Lloyd's Register number
which identifies the ship, and the data items are recorded in
fixed locations after the card type
code. Occasionally, however,
an item of data is recorded in a field without fixed content
or format. An example of a variable format field is shown in
Figure 2.
It is difficult to extract the data from a field of
this type because the information does not always occur at the
same position on the card.
The ship characteristics extracted from the filefor analysis
in this project were:

. deadweight

(DWT)- the weight in tonnes of cargo, stores, fuel,

Passengers and crew carried by the ship when loaded to the


summer loadline;

. length -

the extreme length of the ship;

. breadth -

the extreme breadth, which is the maximum breadth;


to the outside of the ship's structure

. draught -

in most cases this represents the summer loadline

draught amidships, but in some ships the maximum draughtis


at the aft end and then this figure is recorded;

. gross

registered tons (GRT) - the capacity in cubic feet of

the spaces within the hull and of the enclosed spaces above
the deck, all dividedby one hundred;
registered tons (NRT) - derived from the gross tonnage
by deducting spaces used for the accommodation of the master,
officers, crew, navigation, propelling machinery and fuel;

. net

25474180--2

. age

years since the ship was built (to the time of


publication of the data, 1977);

. power -

total brake or shaft horsepower depending on propulsion


type (it was assumed shaft horsepower equals brake horsepower) ;

. speed -

the speed (in knots) that the ship is stated to be


capable of maintaining at sea in normal weather, and at normal
service draught; and
capacity - capacity is measured in twenty foot
equivalent units (TEUs)

. container

The degree of accuracy for individual items of information


depends on the availability of the data. Certain items of
information are recorded for all ships, while other items are
only available for some ships. In
the item the better fhe coverage.

general, the more fundamental


Lloyd's Register provides

a scale which indicates the overall quality of the data recorded


for each item of information. There may be variations within
ship types and within year of build, but the scale gives an
indication of the overall reliability of an item of information.
The graduations of the scale are:
very good;
good ;
acceptable for analysis purposes;
should be treated with caution if used in analysis; and
poor.
The data for deadweight and speed are described as being
'acceptable for analysis purposes'. The data
for all other
quantities used in this project were described as either 'good'
or 'very good'. An
attempt was made to further ensure the
reliability of the data used by only including a ship in the
analysis if figures were available for all the ten
characteristics taken from the Register (except TEUs which are

only relevant to container ships), i.e. ships with incomplete


data were excluded. By using only ships for which all the
relevant information was available, the sample was restricted
to ships for which the data were likely to be most reliable.
The sample was further restrictedby excluding ships which belong
to more than one of the ship type categories listed above, i.e.
only ships which operate in purely one fashion were considered
in the analysis. This restriction is intended to normalise the
data to consistent design criteria.

It would be unreasonable

to expect, for example, that fully cellular container ships

exhibit the same characteristics as ships which handle both


general cargo and containers. These latter ships are likely
to be general cargo ships, designedto different criteria, which
enable them to carry some containers.
The sample sizes which remained for analysiswere:
289
107
2462
277
3014
4146
39
10334

container ships
ro-ro ships
bulk carriers
ore carriers
tankers
general cargo ships
passenger ships
total

The nature of the original data setand the culling criteria


used to derive the analysis data must affect the relationships
obtained. Account should be taken of the extent to which the
composition of the sample data is likely to affect its relevance
to any particular application. In summary, the principal
features of the sample data are:

. representative of the world fleet;

. contains

those ships in service at May 1977;

. contains

only ships which operate in purely one fashion; and

. ships

which do not contain all relevant data items have


been
excluded.

The data files were very large, therefore, the first step
of the analysis was to delete all the ships that were not
relevant so that the subsequent data preparation was performed
on much smaller files which were simpler and cheaper to
manipulate.
The data preparation was performed using three
computer programs:
DATAPREPl, DATAPREP2 and DATAPREP3. Figures
3(a) , 3(b) and 3(c) illustrate the major functions of these
programs in diagrammatic form.
Broadly, the first program locates those ships that areto be
included in the sample and creates seven output files which each
contain the information for one ship type. The second program
locates the specific information to be analysed for each ship
and performs some checks on the data. The third program
carries
out further checks on the data, converts it to a form suitable
for regression analysis and creates seven files for input t o
the statistical package. These three programs
and the analysis
performed are described in more detail in A,nnex B.
Standard linear regression techniques were then used to determine
the line of best fit for each set of data. All regressions were
performed
sample
the
sizes
on
shown
above.
!
The output presented for each regression consists of a point
plot of the sample data with the regression relationship and
9 5 per cent prediction confidence interval superimposed. These
plots are shown in Figures 4-67. The point plots are generated
such that an asterisk signifies one data point; a '2' denotes
two coincident data points etc.; and a '9' denotes nine or more
coincident data points.

Tables 1-9 contain information on the form of the regression


model recommended in each instance, together with the regression
estimates of the coefficients and the It' and IR21 statistics.
For large samples, if the absolute value of the t-statistic is
greater than 1.96 then the regression coefficient is
significantly different from zero, i.e. that term in the
regression is making a significant contribution in explaining
the variance of the sample data. The R 2 statistic represents
the proportion of the variance in the data that can be explained
by the regression model.
However, the R 2 statistic cannot be
compared from one regression model to another.

CARD
TYPE
T21
1

2 3

5 6 7 4
8 9 1011 12131415

LENGTH
OVERALL

FEET

DRAUGHT
MAX

B R EADTH
EXTREME
INS

mm

FEET

LENGTH
BETWEEN
PERPENDICULARS

INS

FIGURE 1 FIXED FORMAT

FRACTION
FEET

LARGER/OR ONLY
INS FRACTION

33343536

37 3839 4041

DEPTH
MOULDED

BREADTH
MOULDED
FEET

mfflae EI41m
282930 31 32

23 24 25 26 27

REGISTERED
LENGTH

SMALLER
FEET INS

FRACTION

CARDIMAGE

SOURCE:Documentation of Lloyd's Register Book File of Shipping.

42434445

LENGTH

SEQUENCE
CARD NUMBER
TYPE

T370 1
/

OF CONTAINERS

NO.OF CONTAINERS
9 5 0 / 2 0 '

"

A0 2
1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415

FIGURE 2 VARIABLE FORMAT


SOURCE:Documentationof Lloyd's

CARD
IMAGE

Register Book File of Shipping.

BUFFER IN THE INFORMATION


FOR ONE SHIP

f
LOCATE SHIP TYPE
I

IS THIS A "PURE" SHIP


OF A RELEVANT TYPE?
I

YES

LOCATE CARDS WITH RELEVANT


INFORMATION

l
LOAD THESE CARDS INTO THE
OUTPUT ARRAY

I
NO

BUFFER OUT THE INFORMATIONTO


FILE FOR THAT SHIP TYPE

IS THISTHE

THE

FINALSHIP
ON FILE?

S
STOP

FIGURE 3(0) PROGRAM

12

DATAPREP1

BUFFER IN THE

INFORMATION

FORSHIPONE

l
l
1
1

LOCATE

CARDS
WITH TONNAGE, DIMENSIONS
AND
AGE

LOADTHE

INFORMATION
INTO O U T P U T

DETERMINE SHIP PROPULSION

ISTHIS A

ARRAY

TYPE

l
LOCATE
INFORMATION
CONTAINER
CAPACITY

CONTAINER
SHIP?
NO

GIVEN SHIP PROPULSION


TYPE,
LOCATE
CARDSWITH INFORMATION
ON
POWER

ON

LOAD
INFORMATION
INTO
OUTPUT
ARRAY

IS INFORMATION
AVAILWLE
POWER?
ON
YES

LOAD
INFORMATION POWER
ON
INTO O U T P U T
ARRAY

,
LOCATE

I I
l

CARD
WITH

INFORMATION

ON

LOAD INFORMATION ONSPEED INTO OUTPUT


ARRAY

B UFFER

OUT

INFORMATION

SPEED

FOR
SHIP

ONE

IS THIS THE FINAL SHIP ON FILE?

FIGURE 3(b) PROGRAM

13

DATAPREP2

INPUT INFORMATION ON
TONNAGE
DIMENSIONS FOR ONE SHIP

AND

CONVERT INFORMATION TO INTEGER FORMAT

+
CONVERT INFORMATION ON DIMENSIONS AND
DEADWEIGHTTO METRIC
UNITS

c
I

INPUT INFORMATION FOR


POWER
SPEED AND AGE
FOR
ONE SHIP

(IFRELEVANT)

ARE THERE ANY BLANK FIELDS?

TO TEUS
CONVERT CONTAINER
INFORMATION
(IFRELEVANT)

OUTPUT INFORMATION

NO

FOR
ONE SHIP

IS THIS THE FINAL SHIP ON FILE?


YES
STOP

FIGURE 3(c) PROGRAM

14

DATAPREP3

YES

CHAPTER 3

DISCUSSION OF RESULTS

LENGTH, BREADTH AND DRAUGHT


Figures 4-24 show length, breadth and draught plotted against
deadweight for each of the seven ship types. Table 1-3 present
the regression coefficients and statistics for the models:

. Length =

a. (DWT)3 .E

. Breadth =

a. (DWT)B

. Draught =

a. (DWT)B .E

.E

The summary statistics in Tables1-3 show that these models do,


in general, indicate a strong correlation between each dimension
and deadweight for each of the ship types considered. Although
it was clear from the graphs of the sample data that a model
of the form shown above should fit the data,it was also possible
that a quadratic function may be appropriate. Hence, models
of the following form were also regressed:

. Length =

+ 8. (DWT) + y .(DWT)2 +

. breadth =

a +

. Draught =

CL

8. (DWT) + y .(DWT)

a.

(DWT) + y .(DWT)2 +

Although the t-statistics suggested the coefficients were


statistically significant (at the 95 per cent confidence level)
they were very smalland had little influence on the estimates
of length, breadth and draught. It was considered that the
former functions provided accurate estimates of the parameters
over a wider range of deadweight and, therefore, they are the
recommended relationships. (The regression coefficients and
statistics of the quadratic functions are recorded in Tables
C.1 to C.3 in Annex C) .

15

There are a number of physical relationships which determine


the length/breadth and length/draught ratios for a ship which
minimise the resistive force a ship experiences asit progresses
through the water.
However, the relationships derived between
deadweight and length, deadweight and breadth, and deadweight
and draught do not reflect any such physical relationship.
Rather, they are the result of designing the lowest cost ship
to handle a particular. trade given that length, breadth and
draught are constrained by factors such as the physical
dimensions of the ports at which the ship is intended to
operate. Some of the effects of these constraints on the sample
d.ata are readily apparent- in Figures 4-24. The most obvious
of these effects is the clear upper limit of thirty-two metres
for the breadth of a container ship (Figure 11). This obviously
corresponds to the 'third genera,tion' container ships which are
constrained by the width of the Panama Canal. A number of other
graphs (for example Figures 6, 8, 16, 22 and 23) also seem to
be bounded by an upper limit. It
is apparent, therefore, that
the relationships derived in this paper reflect the combined
influence of the many criteria that the designer of a ship must
consider, for example:

. minimum

cost;
carrying capacity; and
. constraints on length, breadth, draught.

. maximum

Tables 1-3 show the relationships which describe the line of


best fit for the plots of length, breadth and draught against
deadweight.
However, a fuller explanation of the distribution
of the sample data is obtained if these equations are considered
in corijunction with the 95 per cent confidence intervals shown
in Figures 4-24. Inspection of these graphs will show that the
width of the confidence interval does vary considerably with
ship type. This should be taken into account in any study which
aims to generalise across shiptypes.

16

TONNAGE
The volume of a ship is expressed in volumetric tons and is
referred to as its tonnage (1 ton = 100 ft3) .
The charges for
berthing and docking a ship, for passage through canals and locks
and for many other facilities are usually basedon a ship's
tonnage. The
two tonnage measures of prime interest are the
gross registered tons (GRT) and net registered tons (NRT).
Figures 25-38 show GRT and NRT plotted against deadweight for
each of the seven shiptypes.
As tonnage is broadly a measure of the volume of a ship's cargo,

and deadweight is broadly a measure of the weight of a ship's


cargo, one would expect a positive correlation to exist between
these variables. Examination
of Figures 25-38 shows that the
data do, in fact, exhibit such a correlation.
A linear
regression model was therefore used for each of GRT and NRT.
The resulting regression coefficients and statistics are
presented in Tables 4 and 5. The t and R2 statistics verify
the fact that a correlation exists between tonnage and
deadweight.
a. (DWT)B .E

As a check, power functions of the form GRT =


were also fitted to the data and theresultant

regression coefficients and statistics are presented in Tables


C.4 and C.5.
The regression estimates of the exponent, 3 ,
are all close to unity which further suggests that the
model is appropriate.

linear

It should be noted that it is not statistically valid to use


the information in this paper to derive, by substitution,
relationships between tonnage and any o f the other ship
characteristics. The questionable reliability of relationships
derived in this manner should be taken into account in
quantitative analysis.

17

AG E
The age of a shipin years, at 1977, wasplotted against
deadweight for each of the seven ship types and is shown in
Figures 39-45. These graphs do, in general, illustrate the
expected trend; namely, that the size of ships has been
increasing with time. Although larger
ships are being built
with time, a variety of smaller ships is still being built to
service that trade which does not justify the
use of larger
ships. This trend

to build larger ships

is exhibited most

clearly by bulk carriers, ore carriers and tankers. For the


remaining ship types it is still seen that the larger ships tend
to be of newer construction.
The fact that ships are deleted from the Register as they are
withdrawn from service suggests that the sample on which the
regressions were performed probably provides aclose
approximation to the ships constructed in recent years, but for
earlier years a smaller proportion of ships actually constructed
would remain in the sample.
Due to the fact that there is a large range of ship sizes built
in any one year, it is not reasonable to generate an equation
which will describe age for a ship type simplyas a function
of deadweight. Therefore, a linear model was fitted
to the date
purely to check whether or not there is a trend for the size
of ships being built to increase with time. Table 6 shows the
regression coefficients and statistics for the model
Age

CI

+ B. (DWT) +

An F-test of the joint null hypothesis that N = O and fi=O was


carried out at the 95 per cent confidence level to test for a
relationship between age and deadweight.
The test indicated
that a significant correlation existed between age and deadweight
for five of the seven ship types. The analysis found no
significant relationship between deadweight and age for either

18

ro-ro or passenger ships while for all other ship types the
regression was significant and showed a negative correlation
between age and deadweight, i.e. the larger ships tend to be
newer.
These results really only provide a statistical verification
of what can be seen by inspection of the graphs. There is, in
general terms, a significant trend toward larger vessels
for
bulk carriers, ore carriers, tankers, general cargo ships and
container ships, while no suchtrend is apparent for ro-ro
or passenger ships.
A model of the form

Age

CL

+ B.(DWT)-l

was also fitted to the data, and the regression coefficients


and statistics are tabulated in Table C.6.
The form of the
graphs of sample data suggested this model may be able
to explain
more of the variation in deadweight with age, however, it
provided no better results than did the simple linearmodel.
Hence, all that can be claimed is that for five of the seven
ship types there is some correlation between age and deadweight.
POWER
Figures 45-52 show total power plotted against deadweight for
each of the seven ship types.
It is evident from these plots
that the data exhibit considerable scatter for eachship type.
There does, however, appear to be a strong correlation between
power and deadweight for ore carriers, tankersand to a lesser
extent bulk carriers. The following model
was fitted to the
data
Power

= CL.
(DWT)9 .E

The regression coefficients and statistics are presented in Table


7.1.
The regression coefficients indicate a marked difference
between the data for container ships and the data for the
remaining ships, i.e. the exponent, B , is in excess of unity
for container ships but less than unity for the remaining ship
types. A number of contai,ner ships have been designed to travel
at 25-30 knots and these, having high power, would tend to move
the regression line up, giving it an increasing slope with
deadweight. Given
current fuel prices, however, these ships
have not been proving economic at such high speeds. Hence,

it

is thought analysis of the container ships currently


being
designed may well show a significantly lower exponent for a
regression of power on deadweight.
These variations in the form of the regression models are, in
fact, due to the differing economic considerations present over
time or between ship types. It should be noted, therefore, that
the regression models presented-in this paper are the result
of interaction between all the factors that must be considered
in the design of a ship. They do not represent fundamental
physical relationships in their own right.
Although the regression models presented in Table 7.1 are
significant for each ship type, it is clear that individual data
points are sometimes scattered far from the line of best fit
such that the confidence intervals are wide and diverge at large
values of deadweight.
In an attempt to determine a relationship
which gives a better explanation of the variance in the data,
alternative models were tested. The regression coefficients
and statistics for the following made1 are shown in Table C.7:
Power

+ 6. (DWT) +

None of these regressions provided any better explanation of


the data than did the previous model. Figures 53-59 show the
regression line for a model which includes the term 'speed' (V)

20

superimposed on a plot of the sample data contained


in Figures
46-52. Table 7.2 shows the regression coefficients and
statistics for this model, which is of the form
Power

a. (DWT)6. (V)Y

.E

The relationships obtained for bulk carriers, ore carriersand


tankers using this model are very similar to those derived using
the previous model. This result is due to the fact that all
ships, within each of these ship types, travel at almost the same
speed and therefore the speed term in the regression virtually
becomes a constant. (Figures 62-64 show
the speed versus
deadweight plots for these ship types.) On
the other hand,
various container ships have been designed for different
operating speeds. Figure
53 shows that the variation in power
can be more fully explained by including speed as a further
explanatory variable. Considering this figure
in conjunction
with the plot of speed against deadweight (Figure 60),
it is
clear that the ships designed to travel at around sixteen knots
tend to lie close to the power regression generated with speed
equal to sixteen knots. Similarly, the ships designed for
twenty-three knots fall close to the regression with speed equal
to twenty-three, and twenty-eight knot container ships lie close
to the twenty-eight knot regression.
Thus, as one would expect,
speed is seen to be an important factor in explaining the
variation in power for container ships.
Figure 61 indicates that a number of ro-ro ships travel at
about seventeen knots while a number of others travel at about
twenty-two knots. The
ships from each of these two groups tend
to fall close to the regression using the corresponding value
o f speed (Figure 54) .
General cargo ships travel at a range of speeds from ten
to
twenty-three knots (Figure 65), however, a number of these ships
travel at about fifteen knots and tend to fall around the
regression with the corresponding value of speed (Figure 58) .

25474/80--3

21

The sample is small for passenger ships. However, there are

'number of ships that travel at twenty to twenty-one knots and


these tend to lie just above the regression with speed equal
to twenty knots (Figure 59) .
In general, it is clear that the variation in speed for a g i v e n
ship type is a major factor

in explaining the variation

in power.

However, the design speed for bulk carriers, ore carriers and
tankers is virtually a constant and, hence, omission of the speed
term does not have a major effect on the regressions for these
ship types. On the other hand, container ships show the largest
systematic variation in speed, and this results in the speed
term being very significant

in explaining the variation

in power.

The 95 per cent confidence intervals of power modelled on


deadweight alone are quite wide and divergent at extreme values
of deadweight for all ship types. However, when power is
modelled on deadweight and speed, we find that the confidence
intervals for all ship types are improved.

SPEED
Figures 60-66 show speed plotted against deadweight for each
of the seven ship types.

As discussed in the previous section,

these graphs indicate that there is very little variation in


operating speed for bulk carriers, ore carriers and tankers which
means that the rate at which these ships move freight may be
quite accurately predicted.
Table 8 shows the regression coefficients and statistics for
the model
Speed

a + 8. (DWT) +

E..

A positive correlation was found between speed and deadweight


for all ship types. However, the slopes of the bulk carrier,
ore carrier and tanker regressions are so small that for many

22

practical purposes they may be considered negligible. The


regression for container ships shows a pronounced positive
slope. The data exhibit a distinctly linear relationship between
5000 deadweight tonne ships which travel at fifteen knots and
35 000 deadweight tonne ships which travel at twenty-fiveknots.
For ro-ro ships
positive slope,
larger ships to
to be a quantum

(see Figure 61) the regression line shows a

but the data do not show a steady trend for


operate at a higher speed. Rather, there
appears
jump at 14 000 deadweight tonnes : ships less

than 14 000 DWT travel at about seventeen knots, while ships


greater than 14 000 DWT travel at about twenty-two knots. Such
irregularities in the data illustrate the need to consider the
plot of the sample in conjunction with the regression
coefficients and statistics in order to obtain a fuller
understanding of the relationship between the two variables.
The regression model for cargo ships (Figure 65) provides only
a broad indication that a positive correlation exists. The data,
in fact, are scattered over a quite wide range of speeds. The
data for passenger ships (Figure 66) shows that most ships in
excess of 1500 deadweight tonnes travel at about twenty knots.
The implication of the regression model, that the larger the
passenger ship the higher will be its operating speed is not,
in fact, true. Notwithstanding this fact, examination of Figure
66 will show that the regression model still provides an
indication of the operating speed that couldbe expected of a
passenger ship of a given deadweight.
An alternative model was examined to see whether it provided
a better explanation of the data. The form of
Speed

a.

the model was

(DWT)S .E.

The regression coefficients and statistics for this model are


shown in Table C.8, but it provided no better correlations than
the simple linear model.

23

The confidence intervals for bulk carriers, o,re carriers and


tankers are quite narrow and do not diverge at large values of
deadweight. The confidence intervals for the other ship types
are not encouraging: they
are all wide and the passenger ship
confidence limits diverge at extreme values of deadweight.
CONTAINER CAPACITY
The pkot of container capacity against deadweight shownin Figure
67 suggests that there is a linear relationship between the

number of containers carried by a ship and its deadweight.


Hence, the following model was fitted
TEU

a +

where TEU

B .(DWT) +

to the data:

= twenty foot equivalent units.

The resulting regression coefficients and statistics are shown


in Table 9. These indicate the presence of a strong positive
correlation between TEUs and deadweight. It is reasonable that
there would be a linear relationship between these two variables
as deadweight gives an indication of the carrying capacity of
a ship, and the number of TEUs is the carrying capacity of
l
a container ship.
An alternative model

TEU

CL

.( D W T ).E~

was also regressed and the regression coefficients and statistics


are presented in Table .C.9. The exponent, 6 , resulting from
this regression is very close to unity which reinforces the
hypothesis that thjere is a linear relationship between container
capacity and deadwkight .

24

The confidence interval shows that although the data do show


a direct correlation between the variables, there is still a
degree of scatter about the line of best
fit.
This relationship, together with those for length, breadth and
draught, can be used to determine what size container ships are
likely to be able to enter a port, berth and have their
containers handled and stored efficiently.
For example, the
draught will limit the size of ship that can use the channels,
(when fully loaded), length will affect the berthing of the ship,
breadth will affect the handling of the cargo and the container
capacity will determine the adequacy of storagefacilities:
The relationships may then be used to determine the effect of
a given change to the port's operating characteristics.

25

384.0
376.0
368.0
360.0
352.0
344.0
336.0
328.0
320.0
312.0
304.0
296.0
288.0
280.0
272.0
264.0
256.0
248.0
240.0
232.0
224.0
216.0
208.0
200.0
192.0
184.0
176.0
168.0
160.0
152.0
144.0
136.0
128.0
120.0

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

('000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

FIGURE 4 LENGTH VS DEADWEIGHT (CONTAiNER SHIPS)

\
N

27

N
N

0
0

W
M

.
.

rn

. z

0
0
0

z z

W
n

<

3
0

W
o u
' W
0
-

lY

L
E

N
G
T
H

284.0
280.0
276.0
272.0
268.0
264.0
260.0
256.0
252.0
248.0
244.0
240.0
236.0
232.0
228.0
224.0
220.0
216.0
212.0
208.0
204.0
200.0
196.0
192.0
188.0
184.0
180.0
176.0
172.0
168.0
164.0
160.0
156.0
152.0
148.0
144.0
140.0
136.0
132.0
128.0
124.0
0.0

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 6

75.0

90.0

(000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

LENGTH VS DEADWEIGHT (BULK CARRIERS)

105.0

120.0

135.0

150.0

29

- 0

-0

0
W

-0

2
- 0

0
3

-0
0
0
3

-0

0
W

-0

- 0

- 0

L
E
N
G
T
H
~

W
0

448.0
440.0
432.0
424.0
416.0
408.0
400.0
392.0
384.0
376 .D
368.0
360.0
352.0
344.0
336.0
328 .O
320.0
312.0
304.0
296.0
288.0
280.0
272.0
264.0
256.0
248.0
240.0
232.0
224.0
216.0
208.0
200.0
192.0
184.0
176.0
168 .O
160.0
152.0
144.0
136.0
128.0
DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

FIGURE 8

---

LENGTH VS DEADWEIGHT (TANKERS)

('000 TONNES)

31

U
-I

Qf
W

W
N

352.0
344.0
336.0
328.0
320.0
312.0
304.0
296.0
288.0
280.0
272.0
264.0
256.0
248.0
240.0
232.0
224.0
216.0
208.0
200.0
192.0
184.0
176 .O
168.0
160.0
152.0
144.0
136.0
128.0
120.0
112.0
104.0
96.0
88.0
80.0
72.0
64.0
56.0
48.0
40.0
32.0
DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 10

(000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

LENGTH VS DEADWEIGHT (PASSENGER SHIPS)

33

1y

W
P

32.50
32.00
31.50
31 .OO
30.50
30.00
29.50
29.00
28.50
28.00
27.50
27 .OO
26.50
26.00
25.50
25.00
24.50
24.00
23.50
23.00
22.50
22.00
21.50
21 .oo
20.50
20.00
19.50
19 .oo
18.50
18.00
17.50
17.00
16.50
16.00
15.50
15.00
14.50
14.00
13.50
13.00

..

22

y
DEADWEIGHT

(000 TONNES)

---

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

FIGURE 12

BREADTH VS DEADWEIGHT (RO.RO SHIPS)

B
R
E
A
D
T

-.

48.80
48.00
47.20
46.40
45.60
44.80
44.00
43.20
42.40
41.60
40.80
40.00
39.20
38.40
37.60
36.80
36.00
35.20
34.40
33.60
32.80
32.00
31.20
30.40
29.60
28.80
28.00
27.20
26.40
25.60
24.80
24.00
23.20
22.40
21.60
20.80
20.00
19.20
18.40
17.60
16.80 I
0.0

398999429
838952
*5*35*f(
94 3
.2".
I

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0
DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 13

75.0

90.0

('000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

BREADTH VS DEADWEIGHT (BULK CARRIERS)

105.0

120.0

135.0

150.0

48.80
48.00
47.20
46.40
45.60
44.80
44.00
43.20
42.40
41.60
40.80
40.00
39.20
38.40
37.60
36.80
36.00
35.20
34~.40
33.60
32.80
32.00
31.20
30.40
29.60
28.80
28.00
27.20
26.40
25.60
24.80
24.00
23.20
22.40
21.60
20.80
20.00
19.20
18.40

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 14

('000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

BREADTH VS DEADWEIGHT (ORE CARRIERS)

25474180- 4

37

0
0

m
*

0
0
*

m
m

'
0

o
m
o
0

10

'

.c

w2

c
e
0

0
0

w
n

3
n
<

o z
0
o
N

0
0
10

0
l-,

0
0

0
0

l-

B
R
E
A

24.00
23.20

D
T
H

W
W

37.60
36.80
36.00
35.20
34.40
33.60
32.80
32.00
31.20
30.40
29.60
28.80
28 .oo
27.20
26.40
25.60
24.80
22.40
21.60
20.80
20.00
19.20
18.40
17.60
16.80
16.00
15.20
14.40
13.60
12.80
12.00
11.20
10.40
9.60
8.80
8.00
7.20
6.40
5.60
0.

'493
386'
39
5

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

FIGURE 16

('000 TONNES)

---

BREADTH VS DEADWEIGHT (GENERAL CARGO SHIPS)

\
\
\ *

\
\

'
\

.\

I*
**\

39

13.75
13.50
13.25
13.00
12.75

D
R
A
U
G
H
T

ro
0

11.75
11.50
11.25
1 1 .oo
10.75
10.50
10.25
10.00
9.75
9.50
9.25
9.00
8.75
8.50
8.25
8.00
7.75
7.50
7.25
7.00
6.75
6.50
6.25
6.00
5.75
5.50
5.25
5.00
4.75
4.50
4.25
4.00

222
22

3.75
0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0
DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 18

25.0

30.0

('000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

DRAUGHT VS DEADWEIGHT
-.

(CONTAINER SHIPS)

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

10.50
10.35
10.20
10.05
9.90
9 ..75
9.60
9.45
9.30
9.15
9.00
8.85
8.70
8.55
8.40
8.25
8.10
7.95
7.80
7.65
7.50
7.35
7.20
7.05
6.90
6.75
6.60
6.45
6.30
6.15

/ "2

6.00

5.85
5.70
5.55
5.40
5.25
5.10
4.95
4.80
4.65
4.50
2

*2

6.0

4.0

10.0

8.0

DEADWEIGHT

12.0

('000 TONNES)

---

REGRESSION LINE
9596 CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

FIGURE 19

DRAUGHT VS DEADWEIGHT

14.0

(RO. R0 SHIPS)

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

D
R
A
U
G
H
T

22.40
22 .oo
21.60
21.20
20.80
20.40
20.00
19.60
19.20
18.80
18.40
18.00
17.60
17.20
16.80
16.40
16.00
15.60
15.20
14.80
14.40
14.00
13.60
13.20~
12.80
12.40
12.00
11,60
11.20
10.80
10.40
10.00
9.60
9.20
8.80
8.40
8.00
7.60
7.20
6.80
6.40
0.0

'5

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 20

75.0

90.0

(boo TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

DRAUGHT V S DEADWEIGHT (BULK CARRIERS)

105.0

120.0

~.

"

135.0

150.0

23.60
23.20
22.80
22.40
22.00

!
l

D
R
A
U
G

H
16.40

19.20
18.80
18.40
18.00
17.60
17.20
16.80

I
j

.
n

16 .OO
15.6015.20
14.80
14.40
14.00
13.60
13.20
12.80
12.40
12.00
11.60
11.20
10.80
10.40
10.00
9.60
9.20
8.80
8.40
8.00
7.60
0.0

I
~~~

I
20.0

60.0
40.0

80.0
DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 21

100.0

i 120.0

('000 TONNES)

"
-

INTERVAL

DRAUGHT VS DEADWEIGHT

(O R E CARRIERS)

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

39.20
38.40
37.60
36.80
36.00
35.20
34.40
33.60
32.80
32.00
31.20
30.40
29.60
28.80
28.00
27.20
26.40
25.60
24.80
24.00
23.20
22.40
21.60
20.80
20.00
19.20
18.40
17.60
16.80
16.00
15.20
14.40
13.60
12.80
12.00
11.20
10.40
9.60
8.80
8.00
7.20
0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

---

INTERVAL

FIGURE 22 DRAUGHT VS DEADWEIGHT (TANKERS)

300.0

(000 TONNES)

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

\
,

\
N

45

0
(D

m
cI1

'

m
or4
1

0
0
0

" 8
0

18.00
17.60
17.20
16.80
16.40
16.00
15.60
15.20
14.80
14.40
14.00
13.60
13.20
12.80
12.40
12.00
11.60
11.20
10.80
10.40
10.00
9.60
9.20
8.80
8.40
8.00
7.60
7.20
6.80
6.40
6.00
5.60
5.20
4.80
4.40
4.00
3.60
3.20
2.80
2.40
2.00
0.

. .

..

.*

/
-

/
'
/

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

('000 TONNES)

"
-

FIGURE 24 DRAUGHT VS DEADWEIGHT

(PASSENGER SHIPS)

G
R
0

S
S
R
E
G

I
S

T
E
R
E
D

T
0

N
S

60000.0
58500.0
57000.0
55500.0
54000.0
52500.0
51000.0
49500.0
48000.0
46500.0
45000.0
43500.0
42000.0
40500.0
39000.0
37500.0
36000.0
34500.0
33000.0
31500.0
30000.0
28500.0
27000.0
25500.0
24000.0
22500.0
21000.0
19500.0
18000.0
16500.0
15000.0
13500.0
12000.0
10500.0
9000.0
7500.0
6000.0
4500.0
3000.0
1500.0
0.0
0

',l(,
(-1

(I

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95%

CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 25

('000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

GROSS REGISTERED TONSVS DEADWEIGHT (CONTAINER SHIPS)

4.
'2

G
R
0

S
S

R
E
G
I
S
T
E
R
E
D
T
0

N
S

21500.0
21000.0
20500.0
20000.0
19500.0
19000.0
18500.0
18000.0
17500.0
17000.0
16500.0
16000.0
15500.0
15000.0
14500.0
14000.0
13500.0
13000.0
12500.0
12000.0
11500.0
11000.0
10500.0
10000 I 0
9500.0
9000.0
8500.0
8000.0
7500.0
7000.0
6500.0
6000.0
5500.0
5000.0
4500.0
4000.0
3500.0
3000.0
2500.0
2000.0
1500.0
2.0

/*

/
5
2/

92'
~

2
6
'

22 3
'
'
2
I

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

FIGURE 26

//
/
/

/-

12.0

14.0

16.0

'

( 000 TONNES )

---

GROSS REGISTEREDTONS VS DEADWEIGHT

(RO.R0 SHIPS)

18.0

20.0

22.0

R
0
S

S
R
E
G

I
S

T
E

R
E
D
T
0
N
S

86000.0
84000.0
82000.0
80000.0
78000.0
76000.0
74000.0
72000.0
70000.0
68000.0
66000.0
64000.0
62000.0
60000.0
58000.0
56000.0
54000.0
52000.0
50000.0
48000.0
46000.0
44000.0
42000.0
40000.0
38000.0
36000.0
34000.0
32000.0

30000.0

28000.0
26000.0
24000.0
22000.0
20000.0
18000.0
16000.0
14000.0
12000.0
10000.0
8000.0

*A;

6000.0

15.0

0.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

75.0

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95Yo CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 27

SO.0

105.0

('000 TONNES)

"
-

INTERVAL

GROSS REGISTERED TONSVS DEADWEIGHT

(BULK CARRIERS)

120.0

135.0

150.0

G
R
0

S
S
R

E
G

I
S
T
E
R
E
D

ul
0

T
0

N
S

105000.0
102500.0
100000.0
97500.0
95000.0
92500.0
90000.0
87500.0
85000.0
82500.0
80000.0
77500.0
75000.0
72500.0
70000.0
67500.0
65000.0
62500.0
60000.0
57500.0
55000.0
52500.0
50000.0
47500.0
45000.0
42500.0
40000.0
37500.0
35000.0
32500.0
30000.0
27500.0
25000.0
22500.0
20000.0
17500.0
15000.0
12500.0
10000.0
7500.0
5000.0
0
.- \&l"

1,

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 28

('000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

GROSS REGISTEREDTONS VS DEADWEIGHT (ORE CARRIERS)

51

0
0
0

0
0
0

0
0

m
h

v1

. Mz

L-

<
W
0

o z
::e
0

2
3
X

'

ro

I 0

I;

c
c

c3

W
5

4
W

v,

>

G
R
0

S
S

R
E
G
I
S
T
E
R
E
D
W
M

T
0

N
S

30000.0
29250.0
28500.0
27750.0
27000.0
26250.0
25500.0
24750.0
24000.0
23250.0
22500.0
21750.0
21000.0
20250.0
19500.0
18750.0
18000.0
17250.0
16500.0
15750.0
15000.0
14250.0
13500.0
12750.0
12000.0
11250.0
10500.0
9750.0
9000. a
8250.0
7500.0
6750.0
6000.0
5250.0
4500.0
3750.0
3000.0
2250.0
1500.0
750.0
0.0
0
DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 30

(000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

GROSS REGISTERED TONSVS DEADWEIGHT (GENERAL CARGO SHIPS)

G
R
0

S
S

R
E
G
I
S
T

E
R
E
D
W1
W

T
0

N
S

32000.0
31200.0
30400.0
29600.0
28800.0
28000.0
27200.0
26400.0
25600.0
24800.0
24000.0
23200.0
22400.0
21600.0
20800.0
20000.0
19200.0
18400.0
17600.0
16800.0
16000.0
15200.0
14400.0
13600.0
12800.0
12000.0
11200.0
10400.0
9600.0
8800.0
8000.0
7200.0
6400.0
5600.0
4800.0
4000.0
3200.0
2400.0
1600.0
800.0

/
/

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE.
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

FIGURE 31

('000 TONNES)

"
-

GROSS REGISTERED TONSVS DEADWEIGHT (PASSENGER SHIPS)

E
R
E
D
T
0

N
S

40000.0
39000.0
38000.0
37000.0
36000.0
35000.0
34000.0
33000.0
32000.0
31000.0
30000.0
29000.0
28000.0
27000.0
26000.0
25000-;824000.0
23000.0
22000.0
21000.0
20000.0
19000.0
18000.0
17000.0
16000.0
15000.0
14000.0
13000.0
12000.0
11000.0
10000.0
9000.0
8000.0
7000.0
6000.0
5000.0
4000.0
3000.0
2000.01000.0
0.0
0.

-/g56

_-

..

20.0 15.0 10.0

25.0
DEADWEIGHT

30.0

(000 TONNES)

35.0

40.0

T
50.045.0

4.

N
E
T
R
E
G

I
S

T
E
R

E
D

T
0

N
S

16400.0
16000.0
15600.0
15200.0
14800.0
14400.0
14000.0
13600.0
13200.0
12800.0
12400.0
12000.0
11600.0
11200.0
10800.0
10400.0
10000.0
9600.0
9200.0
8800.0
8400.0
8000.0
7600.0
7200.0
6800.0
6400.0
6000.0
5600.0
5200.0
4800.0
4400.0
4000.0
3600.0

3200.0
2800.0
2400.0
2000.0
1600.0
1200.0
800.0
400.0
DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 33

('000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

NET REGISTERED TONS VS DEADWEIGHT

(RO. R0 SHIPS)

N
E
T
R
E
G
I
S

T
E
R
E
D
T
0

N
S

60000.0
58500.0
57000.0
55500.0
54000.0
52500.0
51000.0
49500.0
48000.0
46500.0
45000.0
43500.0
42000.0
40500.0
39000.0
37500.0
36000.0
34500.0
33000.0
31500.0
30000.0
28500.0
27000.0
25500.0
24000.0
22500.0
21000.0
19500.0
18000.0
16500.0
15000.0
13500.0
12000.0
10500.0
9000.0
7500.0
.6000.0
4500.0
3000.0
1500.0
0.0
0.0

/I

p & *

.
/

/
l

15.0

1
30.0

REGRESSION LINE

---

75.0

60.045.0
DEADWEIGHT

95% CONFIDENCE

90.0

105.0

(000 TONNES)

INTERVAL

FIGURE 34 NET REGISTERED TONS VS DEADWEIGHT

(BULK CARRIERS)

120.0

il

150,
135.0

.o

3
Y

n
3

3
3
iD
3

3
3

t
4

0
0

0
0
(D

0
0
d

0
0
CV

W
W
0

N
E
T
R
E
G

I
S
T

E
R
E
D
T
0
N
S

200000.0
195000.0
190000.0
185000.0
180000.0
175000.0
170000.0
165000.0
160000.0
155000.0
150000.0
145000.0
140000.0
135000.0
130000.0
125000.0
120000.0
115000.0
110000.0
105000.0
100000.0
95000.0
90000.0
85000.0
80000.0
75000.0
70000.0
65000.0
60000.0
55000.0
50000.0
45000.0
40000.0
35000.0
30000.0
25000.0
20000.0
15000.0
10000.0
5000.0
0.0

"

DEADWEIGHT

('000 TONNES)

---

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

F I G U R E36 NET REGISTEREDTONS

vs

DEADWEIGHT (TANKERS)

.........................................

0
0

W
r(

0
000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

00000000000000000000000000000000000000000
0000000000000000000000000000000000000000

omomomomomomomomomomomomomomomomomomomo~
0 m m m m ~ ~ w w m m ~ - 3 m m ~ ~ - - 0 o m m m m ~ ~ w w m m ~ - 3 m m ~ ~ - N
"
"
"
"
"
r
(
"
"
"
~

lW

N
E
T
R
E
G
I
S
T

E
R
E
D
T

r
n
0

N
S

15200.0
14800.0
14400.0
14000.0
13600.0
13200.0
12800.0
12400.0
12000.0
11600.0
11200.0
10800.0
10400.0
10000.0
9600.0
9200.0
8800.0
8400.0
8000.0
7600.0
7200.0
6800.0
6400.0
6000.0
5600.0
5200.0
4800.0
4400.0
4000.0
3600.0
3200.0
2800.0
2400.0
2000.0
1600.0
1200.0

800.0

400.0
0.0
0:
DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 38

('000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

NET REGISTERED TONSVS DEADWEIGHT (PASSENGERSHIPS)

G
E

Y
E
A
R
S

21 .oo
20.50
20.00
19.50
19.00
18.50
18.00
17.50
17.00
16.50
16.00
15.50
15.00
14.50
14.00
13.50
13.00
12.50
12.00
11.50
11.00
10.50
10.00
9.50
9.00
8.50

2
2

2'

8.00

7.50
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50

'2

4 2
2'2

3.00

2.50
2.00

3
'

'2

DEADWEIGHT

('000 TONNES)

REGRESSION LINE

FIGURE 39

AGE VS DEADWEIGHT (CONTAINER SHIPS)

A
G
E

Y
E
A
R

42

41 .OO
40.00
39.00
38.00
37 .OO
36.00
35.00
34.00
33.00
32.00
31 .OO
30.00
29.00
28.00
27.00
26.00
25.00
24.00
23.00
22.00
21 .oo
20.00
19.00
18.00
17.00
16.00
15.00
14.00
13.00
12.00
11 .oo
10.00
9.00
8.00
7 .OO
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00

2
t.

2
2

3
*
2

'

3
'
3
'

..
tt

*
*2
2
2

*
t

1 .oo

2.0

.2

4.0

6.0

t
t

* *

* 2
22
8.0

1
10.0
DEADWEIGHT

I
12.0

l
14.0

('
000 TONNES 1

.
I
16.0

I
18.0

2
20.0

22.0

20.25

A
G
E

Y
E

A
R
S

30.00
29.25
28.50
27.75
27.00
26.25
25.50
24.75
24.00
23.25
22.50
21.75
21 $00

.**

19.50
18.75
18.00
17.25
16.60
15.75
15.00
14.25
13.50
12.75
12.00
11.25
10.50
9.75
9.00
8.25
7.50
6.75

*3 2
3 .
3 t

**

'
3

tt.tt

'223

**

6.00

5.25
4.50
3.75
3.00
2.25
1.50
0.75
0.00
0.0

2
* *
n
-3 I "
I
I
"
- -

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

DEADWEIGHT

75.0

AGE V S DEADWEIGHT

90.0

('000 TONNES)

REGRESSION LINE

FIGURE 41

"

(BULK CARRIERS)

105.0

135.0
120.0

150.0

A
G
E

Y
E
A
R
S

33.60
32.80
32.00
31.20
30.40
29.60
28.80
28.00
27.20
26.40
25.60
24.80
24.00
23.20
22.40
21.60
20.80
20.00
19.20
18.40
17.60
16.80
16.00
15.20
14.40
13.60
12.80
12 .oo
11.20
10.40
9.60
8.80
8.00
7.20
6.40
5.60
4.80
4.00
3.20

2
.tt

.
l
.

5
'92"
954
'6692

3
'2

4
2

. 5 .
n

*ttt

0 .0

DEADWEIGHT

('000 TONNES)

41 .OO
40.00
39.00
38 .OO
37.00
36.00
35.00
34.00
33.00
32.00
31 .OO

2'

30.00

A
G

E
t

29.00
28.00
27.00
26.00
25.00
24.00
23.00
22.00
21 .oo
20.00
19.00
18.00
17 00
16.00
15.00
14.00
13.00
12.00
11.00
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1 .00
0.0

*t*t

'2'
23
..5*
3'7*2*
442'3'
* * 6 2 4*
5'4'26'2
9.23 6
* 9 '5627

*
..

m
UI

3
*63
3'2'
'22
"5 '5 *
2
"33 * *

'2
*

* 2.*

2
822
23
2'3

3*

2'
. .*
..
5

L
50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0
DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE

FIGURE 43

AGE VS DEADWEIGHT (TANKERS)

250.0

300.0

('000 TONNES)

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

25.00
24.38
23.75
23.13
22.50
21.88
21.25
20.63
20.00
19.38
18.75
18.13
17.50
16.88
16.25
15.63
15.00
14.38
13.75
13.13
12.50
11.88
11.25
10.63
10.00
9.38
8.75
8.13
7.50
6.88
6.25
5.63
5.00
4.38
3.75
3.13
2.50
1.88
1.25
0.63

..
..
..

33..

669342' 32'3932'
57665529'4522293.5'

*32
'
'
4
'
3
'

*S832 2 3 45'.
39%3%7;'*9
*65*354322 232**4.& 2
'3.443'

..
I

0.00

0.0

*22 '2 7
'
2
'
2 2443
*422 2
7
**
'2 24 '
'522 *
*22'4'

**

'
3

23"'4*3

'2

264 232 2
4' 243.2.4
2 2 3
323*'*425
*4 ** '45 222 +Q"
*32*2 923322
2
4.0

...

444*3'4*'*42223***

3 2

'
4

''2

'
2

- *

**

'22'
3
'

t.

8.0

5'

12.0

**

16.0
DEADWEIGHT

20.0

24.0

( 000 TONNES)

REGRESSION LINE

FIGURE 44 AGE VS DEADWEIGHT (GENERAL CARGO SHIPS)

28.0

32.0

36.0

40.0

67

Nbmm

-1.

L
v)

!
-

c3
W
5

U
W

n
v)

>

W
c3

n
0

R
S
E
P
0

W
E
R

160000.0
156000.0
152000.0
148000.0
144000.0
140000.0
136000.0
132000.0
128000.0
124000.0
120000.0
116000.0
112000.0
108000.0
104000.0
100000.0
96000.0
92000.0
88000.0
84000.0
80000.0
76000.0
- 72000.0
68000.0
64000.0
60000.0
56000.0
52000.0
48000.0
44000.0
40000.0
36000.0
32000.0
28000.0
24000.0
20000.0
16000.0
12000.0
8000.0
4000.0
0.0
0.0

33

/
/
/
L

..

:5

'4'

* *

8776'42829'2/

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 46

**

25.0

30.0

( 000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

HORSEPOWER V S DEADWEIGHT (CONTAINER SHIPS)

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

39000.0
38000.0
37000.0
36000.0
35000.0
34000.0

33000.0

H
0
R
S
E

P
0

W
E
R

32000.0
31000.0
30000.0
29000.0
28000.0
27000.0
26000.0
25000.0
24000.0
23000.0
22000.0
21000.0
20000.0
19000.0
18000.0
17000.0
16000.0
15000.0
14000.0
13000.0

2*

12000.0

11000.0
10000.0
9000.0
8000.0
7000 .0
6000.0
5000.0
4000.0
3000 10
2000 !
0
1000.0
2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0
DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 47

12.0

('000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

HORSEPOWER V S DEADWEIGHT

14.0

(RO. R 0 SHIPS)

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

H
0

R
S
E
P

32800.0
32000.0
31200.0
30400.0
29600.0
28800.0
28000.0
27200.0
26400.0
25600.0
24800.0
24000.0
23200.0
22400.0
21600.0
20800.0
20000.0
19200.0
18400.0
17600.0
16800.0
16000.0

0
W
15200.0
E
R
- 14400.0
13600.0
12800.0
12000.0
11200.0
10400.0
9600.0
8800.0
8000.0
7200.0
6400.0
5600.0
4800.0
4000.0
3200.0
2400.0
1600.0
800.0
0.0

22

15.0

45.0
30.0

60.0
DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

FIGURE 48

75.0

90.0

('000 TONNES)

"
-

HORSEPOWER -VS DEADWEIGHT (BULK CARRIERS)

105.0

120.0

135.0

150.0

n
0

R
S
E
P
0

E
R

80440.0
78440.0
76440.0
74440.0
72440.0
70440.0
68440.0
66440.0
64440.0
62440.0
60440.0
58440.0
56440.0
54440.0
52440.0
50440.0
48440 0
46440.0
44440.0
42440.0
40440.0
38440.0
36440.0
34440.0
32440.0
30440.0
28440.0
26440.0
24440.0
22440.0
20440.0
18440.0
16440.0
14440.0
12440.0
10440 0
8440.0
6440.0
4440.0
2440.0
440.0
0.0
I

I
20.0

60.0
40.0

I
80.0
DEADWEIGHT

100.0

120.0

(000 TONNES)

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 49

INTERVAL

HORSEPOWER VS DEADWEIGHT (ORE CARRIERS)

140.0 200.0
180.0
160.0

H
0

R
S
E
P
0

W
E
R

60000.0
58500.0
57000.0
55500.0
54000.0
52500.0
51000.0
49500.0
48000.0
46500.0
45000.0
43500.0
42000.0
40500.0
39000.0
37500.0
36000.0
34500.0
33000.0
31500.0
30000.0
28500.0
27000.0
25500.0

19500.0
18000.0
16500.0
15000.0
13500.0
12000.0
10500.0
9000.0
7500.0
6000.0
4500.0
3000.0
1500.0
0.0

/
/
/

95 **

2
I

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
9556 CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

FIGURE 50

('000 TONNES)

---

HORSEPOWER VS DEADWEIGHT (TANKERS)

H
0

R
S

E
P
0

W
E
R

32000.0
31200.0
30400.0
29600.0
28800.0
28000.0
27200.0
26400.0
25600.0
24800.0
24000.0
23200.0
22400.0
21600.0
20800.0
20000.0
19200.0
18400.0
17600.0
16800.0
16000.0
15200.0
14400.0
13600.0
12800.0
12000.0
11200.0
10400.0
9600.0
8800.0
8000.0
7200.0
6400.0
5600.0
4800.0
4000.0
3200.0
2400.0
1600.0
800.0 "..
0.0
0.0

..

I
.

* J

/
2

/2

/-"-

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

FIGURE 51

20.0

24.0

28.0

('000 TONNES)

---

HORSEPOWER VS DEADWEIGHT (GENERAL CARGO SHIPS)

32.0

I
36.0

40 .o

H
0

R
S
E
P
0

W
E
R

76000.0
74000.0
72000.0
70000.0
68000.0
66000.0
64000.0
62000.0
60000.0
58000.0
56000.0
54000.0
52000.0
50000.0
48000.0
46000.0
44000.0
42000.0
40000.0
38000.0
36000.0
34000.0
32000.0
30000.0
28000.0
26000.0
24000.0
22000.0
20000.0
18000.0
16000.0
14000.0
12000.0
10000.0
8000.0
6000.0
4000.0
2000.0
0.0
0.0

/
/

L
1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 52

7.5

9.0

('000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

HORSEPOWER V S DEADWEIGHT (PASSENGER SHIPS)

10.5

12.0

13.5

15.0

75

*\\

:
\

l
\
\

\
\
* \

\
\

\
l
-\,

It
F

l
l

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

N
N

0
0
N

0
4)
r
(

1
4

0
3

0
r
(

0
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000N

00000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000

~ ~ m m m m m m m m m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - ~ ~ - - - - - r ( -

76

*\.

>

\\

77

H
0

R
S
E
P
0

W
E
R

80440.0
78440.0
76440.0
74440.0
72440.0
70440.0
68440.0
66440.0
64440.0 I
62440.0
60440.0
58440.0
56440.0
54440.0
52440.0
50440.0
48440.0
46440.0
44440.0
42440.0
40440.0
38440.0
36440.0
34440.0
32440.0
30440.0
28440.0
26440.0
24440.0
22440.0
20440.0
18440.0
16440.0
14440.0
12440.0
10440.0
8440.0
6440.0
4440.0
2440.0
440.0 1
0.0

/ 3

4
w
839483 5

. .

40.0

20.0

60.0

I
80.0

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 56

100.0

120.0

(000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

HORSEPOWER VS DEADWEIGHT (ORE CARRIERS)

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

0
0

m
-$

0
0
d*

0
0

U)

0
0
0

0
3

lc
fl

3
'v

3
3

3
3
+

;
3
000000000000000000000000000000300000000000

0000000000000000000000000000000000000000

00000000000000000000000000000000000000000

omomomomomomomomomomomoU)omomomomomomo~om
o m ~ m ~ ~ - m m w m m ~ o m ~ w d m - o m ~ m ~ ~ - m m ~ m ~ ~ o m ~ w ~ m ~mm~mmmd-$dlddlmmmmmmmNNNNNN-----**

79

n
0

R
S
E
P
0

W
E
R

a,
0

32000.0
31200.0
30400.0
29600.0
28800.0
28000.0
27200.0
26400.0
25600.0
24800.0
24000.0
23200.0
22400.0
21600.0
20800.0
20000.0
19200.0
18400.0
17600.0
16800.0
16000.0
15200.0
14400.0
13600.0
12800.0
12000.0
11200.0
10400.0
9600.0
8800.0
8000.0
7200.0
6400.0
5600.0
4800.0
4000.0
3200.0
2400.0
2999899.9
1600.0
800.0 8997
0.0
I
0.0 8.0 4.0

2
/
/

V=15

-t.

**
I

12.0

16.0

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

FIGURE 58

20.0

24.0

28.0

(000 TONNES)

---

HORSEPOWER VS DEADWEIGHT (GENERAL CARGO SHIPS)

32.0

36.0

40.0

l
l
\
\
\

* *

81

>

l
N

*
m \
* N\

l
\
*

0
3

t-

CY
W

K
N
0

T
S

41.60
40.80
40.00
39.20
38.40
37.60
36.80
36.00
35.20
34.40
33.60
32.80
32.00
31.20
30.40
29.60
28.80
28.00
27.20
26.40
25.60
24.80
24.00
23.20
22.40
21.60
20.80
20.00
19.20
18.40
17.60
16.80
16 .OO
15.20
14.40
13.60
12.80
12 .oo
11.20
10.40
9.60
0 .o

33

/-

243 "4.2

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0
DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

25.0

30.0

('000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

.
.
'
.
.

FIGURE 60

**

SPEED VS DEADWEIGHT (CONTAINER SHIPS)

35.0

40.0

45.0

I
50.0

\
\

\.

1.
\

l
l
N

83

P
E
E
D

N
0

T
S

30.00
29.25
28.50
27.75
27 .OO
26.25
25.50
24.75
24.00
23.25
22.50
21.75
21 .oo
20.25
19.50
18.75
18.00
17.25
16.50
15.75
15.00
14.25
13.50
12.75
12.00
11.25
10.50
9.75
9.00
8.25
7.50
6.75
6.00
5.25
4.50
3.75
3.00
2.25
1.50
0.75
0.00
0.0

7.

. .
1

40.0
20.0

60.0

I
80.0

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

100.0

120.0

(000 TONNES)

---

FIGURE 62 SPEED VS DEADWEIGHT (BULK CARRIERS)

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

P
E
E
D

K
N
0

T
S

28.50
27.75
27.00
26.25
25.50
24.75
24.00
23.25
22.50
21.75
21.00
20.25
19.50
18.75
18.00
17.25
16.50
15.75
15.00
14.25
13.50
12.75
12.00
11.25
10.50
9.75
9.00
8.25
7.50
6.75
6.00
5.25
4.50
3.75
3.00
2.25
1.50
0.75
0.00

6 266 *3*** 5
2
**95933622334

2255
2 R*

*9638 24
4962
2
.
P

0.0

1
20.0

42 **** 2

REGRESSION LINE

FIGURE63

A*
*

2.

**.2.

I
*

60.040.0

80.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0

DEADWEIGHT

95% CONFIDENCE

..2 .

**

(000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

SPEED V S DEADWEIGHT (ORE CARRIERS)

180.0

200.0

19.50

27.75
27.00
26.25
25.50
24.75
24.00
23.25
22.50
21.75
21 .oo
20,25

S
P
E
E
D

K
N
0

T
S

18.75
18.00
17.25
16.50
15.75
89699969837859256324*2**2*4*
15.00
*
4
Y
4

3355
14,25
9992.2
2
13.50
,
12.75
4533
12.00
92
11.25
10.50
9.75
9.00
8.25
7.50
6.75
6.00
5.25
4.50
3.75
3.00
2.25
1.50
0.75
I
I
1
0.00
0.0
50.0
150.0
100.0

2
2

200.0

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

**

444362. 7 17
2.4 *49 28863*4
3
*
t
* *

---

INTERVAL

FIGURE 64 SPEED VS DEADWEIGHT (TANKERS)

250.0

.*

300.0

(000 TONNES)

350.0

400.0

I
450.0

500.0

S
P
E
E

K
N
0

T
S

30.00
29.25
28.50
27.75
27.00
26.25
25.50
24.75
24.00
23.25
22.50
21.75
21 .oo
20.25
19.50
18.75
18.00
17.25
16.50
15.75
15.00
14.25
13.50
12.75
12.00
11.25
10.50
9.75
9.00
8.25
7.50
6.75
6.00
5.25
4.50
3.75
3.00
2.25
1.50
0.75
0.00

2*

2.

**

. 2 .3
t

'2
t

9999'"2

94

9942.89
2

\
.

92

'2

/
/

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE

FIGURE 65

..

('000 TONNES)

---

INTERVAL

SPEED VS DEADWEIGHT (GENERAL CARGO SHIPS)

S
P
E
E
D

K
N
0

T
S

m
m

28.00
27.50
27.00
26.50
26.00
25.50
25.00
24.50
24.00
23.50
23.00
22.50
22.00
21.50
21 .oo
20.50
20.00
19.50
19.00
18.50
*18.00
17.50
17.00
16.50
16.00
15.50
15.00
14.50
14.00

* *

12.00
11.50
11.00
10.50
10.00
9.50
9.00

** 9

DEADWEIGHT

REGRESSION LINE
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

FIGURE 66

(000 TONNES )

---

SPEED VS DEADWEIGHT (PASSENGER SHIPS)

89

v)

n
>
>-

CHAPTER 4

- CONCLUDING

REMARKS

GENERAL
Standard regression techniques have been used to determine a
regression model for a number of data sets. The
form of these
data sets is the result of a varietyof interacting factors and,
hence, does not illustrate any single, fundamental principle.
Therefore, the regression relationships provide a description
of the existing world fleet, but they do not illustrate the
physical principles applied to the design o f ships.

The relationships presented in Tables 1-9 provide an indication


of the trends that are evident in the data. However, the
additional information available by also examining the plots
of the sample data and by considering the prediction confidence

intervals will be found worthwhile when applying these


relationships. The information provided
in this paper as a whole
should prove to be a valuable tool to those studying shipping
and port infra,structure.
LIMITATIONS OF THE RESULTS
When applying the results presented in this paper consideration
should always be given to the characteristics of the data from
which the results have been derived. The relevance
of these
relationships, in any application, is dependent on the relevance
of the data from which they have been determined.

As mentioned in Chapter 1, Lloyd's Register is very extensive


and is expected to be representative of the world fleet.
Hence,
the results should draw together any trends evident in individual
ship building nations and present an aggregate estimateo f the
relationships between the ship characteristics investigated.
Any arbitrary selection of data will always affect the regression
model derived.

Therefore, it should be remembered that


90

ships

with incomplete data have been excluded from the analysis,


as
have those ships that operate in more than one fashion, e.g.
general cargo/container ships (see Chapter 2). These facts may
affect the applicability of the results depending on the type
of trade expected at a given port and the accuracy desired of
the estimates of the ship characteristics. However. due
to the
comprehensive nature of the information in Lloyd's Register it
is expected that such effects would only be of minor
significance.
As mentioned in Chapter 1, ships are deleted from Lloyd's
Register of Shipping as they are withdrawn from service, and
the version of the Register used for this analysis was current
at May 1977. About 1.5-2.0 per cent of ships on the Register
are withdrawn from service each year,
and these constitute about
1.0-1.5 per cent of the gross tonnage of the world fleet.
Assuming that this rateof withdrawal from service continues,

after ten years one would expect the data used in

this analysis

to represent 80-85 per cent of the ships still in service


and
these ships would constitute 85-90 per cent of the gross tonnage
of the world fleet. The accuracy required for a particular study
will determine whether these results are still of use in a given
situation, but for many applications the information in this
paper will be relevant for ten years or more.
However, if in
the future it becomes obvious thata large number of new ships,
of a particular ship type, have been constructed to a
significantly different design then this shouldbe taken into
account before applying the relationships presented in this
paper .
It should be noted, of course, that
the regression models provide
no justification for any prediction outside the range of values
encountered in the samples.

go

TABLE 1

LENGTH(a) : REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS AND STATISTICS F O R


MODEL,

Ship

a. (DWT) B

Container

60.5 0.94
(269)

0.399
(70.4)

61.7 0.80
(99.7)

0.423
(20.3)

~/

Ro- ro

Bulk Carrier

68.7
(695)

Ore Carrier

72.8 0.97
(390)

0.288
(162)

Tanker

(197)

Passenger

60.0 0.90
(1310)
105
(145)

000 tonnes.

92

0.97

0.349
0.317
(9.97)

statistics shown in brackets.

DWT measured in

0.276
(87.9)
0.268
(333)

(a) Length measured in metres.


t

R2

0.92

75.8
(1290)

General

.E

0.72

TABLE 2 -

BREADTH(^):

REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS AND STATISTICS FOR

MODEL,
B

Ship

a.

(DWT)B .E

Container
0.65 Ro- ro

10.4
(169)
0.303

Bulk Carrier
0.92

0.313

11.3
(57.3)

R2

0.311
(60.4)

0.92

(14.2)

8.69
(340)

(169)

Ore Carrier

8.05
(188)

0.341
(107)

Tanker

8 -10
(671)

General Cargo
Passenger

(a) Breadth measured


t

DWT

10 .I 0.93
(1080)

0.99

0.337
(450)
0.281
(232)

0.234
(10.8)

15.3
(124)

in metres.

statistics shown in brackets


measured in '000 tonnes.

93

0.98

0.75

TABLE 3

DRAUGHT(^):
MODEL.

REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS AND STATISTICS FOR

= C(.
( D W T ) .E
~

Ship

Container
Ro-

3.78
(87.6)

ro
(22.9)

0.93
Bulk Carrier

0.275

Ore Carrier

3.94
0.83
(53.3)
4.18
(2751
4.07
0.95
(101)

0.320
(56.97
0.297

(182)
0.274
(69.1)

Tanker
General Cargo
Passenger

4.890.54
(40.4)

(a) Draught measured in metres.


t

statistics shown in brackets.

DWT measured in

'000 tonnes.

94

0.263
(6.74)

R2

0.91

TABLE 4

GROSS REGISTERED TONS: REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS AND


STATISTICS FOR MODEL,
GRT = a+B .(DWT)+E

Ship Type

Container
(60.3)
Ro-

R2

1160

0.92

780
(19.6)

0.78

(-6.33)

ro

24.6
(0.07) (a)

Bulk Carrier

2310
(31.7)

514
(290)

0.97

Ore Carrier

1860
(4.06)

499
(59.l)

0.93

(39.9)

(586)
659
(269)

0.95

(-6.30)

1910

0.65

Tanker

0.99

-129 General Cargo


Passenger
(9.38)

2840
(3.47)

(a) t - statistic not significantly different from zero at the


0.05 level of significance.
t

statistics shown in brackets.

DWT measured in '000 tonnes.

95

TABLE 5

NET REGISTERED TONS: REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS AND


STATISTICS FOR MODEL,
NRT = cc+B

Ship

CL

Container
Ro-

.(DWT)+E

ro

R2

-1440
(-5.07)

699
(50.8)

0.89

-618
(-2.57)

485
(18.2)

0.76

Bulk Carrier

0.95

361
(5.31)
172
(38.6)

0.84

Ore Carrier

2240
(9.28)

Tanker

-868
(-6.72)

0.98

General Cargo

-226
(-16.3)

0.94

Passenger
~~~

980
(2.24)
~~

- statistics

DWT measured

shown in brackets.

in 000 tonnes.

96

1040
(8.52)

0.65

TABLE 6

AGE: REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS AND STATISTICS

FOR MODEL

AGE = m+a. (DWT)+E


Ship

Container

7.75
(27 - 6 )

R2

-0.0538
(-3 -95)

0.04

no significant regression

Ro- ro
Bulk Carrier

10.6
(57.4)

-0.0558
(-12.4)

0.06

Ore Carrier

18.3
(50.2)

-0.0889
(-13.2)

0.39

Tanker

16.5
(98.5)

-0 - 0 4 7 4
(-37.0)

0.31

General Cargo

7 .l9
(94.8)

-0.106
(-11.7)

0.03

Passenger
t

no significant regression

statistics shown in brackets.

DWT measured in

'000 tonnes.

97

TABLE 7 .l

HORSEPOWER
FOR MODEL,

: REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS AND STATISTICS

HP

= C(.
( D W T ).E~

Ship Type

C(

Container
Ro-

759
(95.7)

ro

R2

1 .l6
(45.0)

0.86

1640 0.51
(43.9)

0.905
(10.6)

0.66

0.579
(68.9)

830 0.66
(63.6)

0.701
(23.3)

Tanker

0.84

0.561
(124)

General Cargo

0.83

0.836
(144)

6260 0.45
(77.3)

0.638
(5.69)

Bulk Carrier
Ore Carrier

Passenger

(a) Power has been regressed in units of horsepower because of


the continued usage of this unit by the shippinq industry.
t

statistics shown in brackets.

DWT

measured in '000 tonnes.

1 hp

0.746 kW

98

0.96

TABLE 7.2

HORSE POWER(^) : REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS AND


STATISTICS FOR MODEL,
HP = a. (DWT)B . (V)y .E

Ship

Container
2.66

0.526
1.52
(29.4)(20.7)(1.97)

Ro-

0.422

ro

1.46
(0.73) (b)

0.83
(6.86)

R2

2.80
(13.9)

0.71
1.43
0.521
38.9
Bulk Carrier
(20.7) (63.3) (20.6)

Carrier
0.72
Ore

0.90

1.74
0.586
12.4
(7.43) (18.5) (4.39)

Tanker
2.10

0.504

Cargo
General
0.94
2.17

0.539

Passenger

6.70
(14.3)

(131)

(41.7)

5.49
(29.7)

(115)

(90.7)

0.289
0.230
(6.96) (2.43)
(-0.86) (c)

3.55

0.76

(a) Power has been regressed in units of horsepower because o f


the continued usage of this unit by the shipping industry.
(b), (c) t - statistics not significantly different from one
at the 0.05 level of significance.
t

statistics shown in brackets.

DWT

measured in '000 tonnes.

1 hp

0.746 kW.

99

TABLE 8

SPEED(a): REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS AND STATISTICS FOR


MODE
L,
V = a+B. (DWT)+E

Ship

Container
Ro- ro
(7.24)

R2

14.3
(48.4)

0.321
(24.4)

0.70

14.4
(31.0)

0.373

0.33

Bulk Carrier

14.4
(441)

0.00989
(12.4)

0.06

Ore Carrier

13.5
(123)

0.0140
(6.95)

0.15

0.00172
(8.07)

0.02

Tanker
General Cargo
Passenger

16.4
(34.0)

(a) Speed measured in knots.


t

statistics shown in brackets.

DWT measured in

'000 tonnes.

100

0.314
(48.3)

0.36

0.555
(4.13)

0.30

TABLE 9

C O N T A I N E R C A P A C I T Y ( ~ ) : REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS AND


STATISTICS FOR MODEL,
TEU

Ship

CL+^
CL

Container

-79.1
(-4 .OO)

(a) Container capacity measured


t

.(DWT)+E

25474/80---8

R2

55.7
(59.3)

0.92

in Twenty foot Equivalent Units.

statistics shown in brackets.

DWT measured

in '000 tonnes.

101

ANNEX A
MAIN CONTENTS OF LLOYD'S REGISTER OF SHIPPING
CARD TYPE

MAIN CONTENTS

TO 0

Lloyd' s Register

number

Ship's name
TO1

Call sign
Official number
Navigational aids

TO3

Year o f change of name


Former name

T04

Owner

TO 5

Manager

TO 6

F1ag
Port

TO8

Gross tons
Net tons
Deadweight

T10

Classification society, other than Lloyd's


Register ( L R )

T11

LR classification
hull
symbols
of ship (LR)

Classification
T12
notation
T13

Machinery
classification
(LR)

102

T20

Date of build
Shipbuilder and place of build
Yard number

T21

Dimension of hull
Length overall
Extreme breadth
Draught
Registered length
Length between perpendiculars
Moulded breadth
Moulded depth

T22

Superstructures

T23

Number of decks
Type of decks

T24

Number of complete decks (including shelter decks)


Rise of floor
Keel type
Keel length

T25

Information on keel

T26

Cargo battens
Bulkheads
Water ballast

T27

Type of alterations
Date of alterations

T29

Conversions

103

T3 0

Ship type and sub-types


Propulstion type
Number of screws
Number of passengers
Material of ship

T31

Special features of ship

T33

Number, length and type of:


holds
tanks
combined holds/tanks
between deck space
wing holds
wing tanks

T36

Grain capacity
Bale capacity
Insulated capacity
Liquid capacity
Heating coils

T37

Number and size of containers carried


Number of lighters carried

T38

Number, material, length and breadth of centreline


hatchways

T39

Number, material, length and breadth of wing side


hatchways

T40

Number of winches
Number of cranes
Safe working load

T41

Number of derricks
Safe working load

104

T42

Number, material, type, shape and position of


special tanks

NB:
T50

Cards T50 through to T59 relate to oil prime movers


Number of engines
Position
Cylinder layout
Number of cylinders with bore and stroke
dimensions

T5 1

Information on gearing and coupling

T5 2

Total horsepower (bhp)


Engine design code

T53

Generators driven by oil engines


Number o f generators
Kilowatt
Volts
Alternating/direct current
Indication of secondary propulsion

T54

Electric motors driven by generators


Number of engines
Position
Shaft horsepower
Type of system

T55

Diesel electric motors

T56

Emergency or secondary propulsion

T5 8

Second or third oil engine group


Number of engines
Position

Cylinder layout
Number o f cylinders with bore and stroke
dimensions
T59

Total horsepower (bhp), second or third engine


9roup
Engine design code

T60

Steam reciprocating engine (dimensions

in imperial

units)
Type of reciprocating engine
Number of engines
Bore and stroke
Position

T6 1

Steam reciprocating engine (dimensions in metric


units)
Type o f reciprocating engine
Number of engines
Bore and stroke
Position

T6 2

Information on gearing and coupling of low


pressure turbines when combined with reciprocating
engines

T6 3

Horsepower, reciprocating engines (ihp)


Engine design code

T70

Steam turbines
Number of steam turbines
Information on gearing and coupling

T71

Total shaft horsepower


Turbine design code

106

T75

Turbo-electric engines
Number of steam turbines
Total shaft horsepower
Kilowatt, volts of generators
Shaft horsepower of motors
Type of steam

T76

Information on gearing

T77

Turbine design code

T80

Gas turbine
Total shaft horsepower

T85

Engine dates
Year when engine was made, fitted, refitted or
added

T86

Fuel bunkers
Capacity and type of fuel bunkers

T87

Engine builder ( S ) and where made

T89

Boilers (LR classed ships only)


Number, type and position of boilers

T90

Primary and secondary pressure and working


temperature and pressure

T95

Auxiliary generators
Number of generators
Kilowatt, volts of generators
Alternating/direct current
Frequency in Hz

107

T9 6

Special propellors and speed


Number of special propellors
Type of special propellors
Position of special propellors
Speed

T99

Cross reference ship's name.

108

ANNEX B
DATA PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS

Data from Lloyd's Register of Shipping is input to DATAPREPl


which reads the information for the first ship, and determines
whether the ship type is one to be analysed.

It also determines

whether the ship operates in purely one fashion, i.e. is it a


'pure' ship type. If
the ship is eligible for inclusion in the
sample, the program uses the card type code to locate all cards
with the particular items of data to be examined. These cards
are loaded into the output array and output to the file for that
ship type. Then the information for the next ship is input,
and the procedure repeated.
Seven files are thereby created;
one for each ship type. In summary, program DATAPREPl reduces
the information being processed to the relevant cards for the
relevant ships and stores this data in a separate file for each
ship type.
DATAPREP2 reads the data for the first ship from one of the seven
files created by the previous program. It
then locates the
'words' (strings of ten characters) that contain the information
on deadweight, gross registered tons, net registered tons,
length, breadth, draught and age. These 'words' are loaded into
the output array, and the ship propulsion type is located and
decoded. It must be decoded because the form of propulsion
determines on which cards the data for power is located. The
'words' containing informtion on container capacity are then
located and loaded into the output array. Next the data
on power
are located and decoded. If they are blank the program drops
that ship and reads the information for the next ship. If the
data on power is present it is loaded into the output array.
Finally, the 'word' containing the information on speed is
located and loaded into the output array. The information for
that ship is then output the information for the next ship read

25474180-9

109

in and the process repeated.

Therefore, DATAPREP1 produces files

which contain the relevant 'cards' of data for ships of the


relevant types, while DATAPREP2 produces files which contain
the relevant words' of data.
DATAPREP3 reads the information on tonnage and dimensions for
the first ship and converts it to integer format. The
ship
dimensions and deadweight are then converted to metric units.
The information for power, speed, age and container capacity
(if relevant) is read and all data are checked for missing
items. If any data are missing the ship is dropped from the
sample. Otherwise, the container capacity (if relevant)
is
converted to TEUs, after which the information for that ship
is output in a fixed format record, and the procedure repeated
for the next ship.
This fixed format record consists of fiftyseven characters for each ship type, except container ships,
for which it consists of sixty-two characters. The information
on each record contains all nine characteristics listed in
Chapter 2 (ten characteristics for container ships).
The statistical analysis of the data output by DATAPREP3 was
performed using the GENSTAT(l) statistical package. Firstly
,
GENSTAT was used to plot the sample data for each set of
variables that was to be regressed. The exact samples on which
the regressions were to be performed (described in Chapter 2)
were plotted for all ship types except general cargo. The sample
for this ship type was so large (4146 ships) that GENSTAT was
unable to cope with all the data. A random selection of the
sample was therefore plotted for this ship type.
Standard linear regression techniques were then used to determine
the regression model for each set of data. All regressions,
including those for general cargo ships, were performed on the

(1) GENSTAT: A General Statistical Program. The Statistics


Department.RothamsteadExperimentStation.1977.

110

sample of ships described in Chapter 2. The regression models


described in this paper generally have one of the following
forms:

The first model simply determines the straight line of best fit
for the data, where a is the intercept on the dependent variable
axis and 8 is the slope of the line. There
is an unpredictable
randomness in all data whichis described by the stochastic error
term, E .
This term accounts for error from two sources. The
first is the fact that when framing a regression model one does
not claim to have included all the variables which influence
the relationship and so there will be specification error in
the equation. The second
source of error is
or recording of the data.

in the measurement

Before regression, the second model is linearised by log


transformation, to the form of the
first model, i.e.
log Y = A + B . log X +

E,

where log CL = A, and


log eE= E
A standard linear regression is then performed on this data.

The a term in regression model 2 is determined by taking the


antilogarithm of the estimate of the regression coefficient,
A, while the 8 term in regression model 2 is the same as the
coefficient 8 in regression model 3.

An additional computer program was written which was

used to

calculate the 95 per cent prediction confidence interval for


each regression model. The confidence interval indicates
that,

in the long run, one would expect ninety-fiveout of a hundred


new observations to fall between the confidence limits. The
limits were calculated using the formula

where
S (yneW) =JMSE (1 X' ( x ~ x ) - ~Ix )
A
Y is the regression estimate of Ynew

t(1- CX) is the t-statistic, and

MSE is the error mean square or residual meansquare.

112

.92

ANNEX C
ALTERNATIVE MODELS:
REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS AND STATISTICS
TABLE C.l
LENGTH
Ship

a+@

.( D W T )+y .(DWT)2 + ~
B

CL

R2

-0.0709
Container 7.65
77.2
(-13.1)
(30.7)(31.7)
Ro-0.314
ro

Bulk Carrier

Carrier Ore
Tanker
(135)
Cargo
General
(-42.0)

(105)

-2.19
Passenger 32.7

DWT

0.81

13.6
62.0
(-4.40)(8.95) (9.44)

119 0.92
-0.00941
23.6
(203) (-46.5) (93.3)
127
(102)

2.07
(42.0)

0.96
-0.00688
(-21.5)

153
(337)

1.20

0.96 -0.00179
(-64.6)

59.5
(145)

8.88

75.7
(-4
.17)
(12.0)
(7

0.84 -0.153

-75)

statistics shown in brackets.


measured in '000 tonnes.

113

TABLE C.2
BREADTH
Ship

a + B.(DWT)

+ Y.(DWT) 2+ E

R2

Container

12.2
(53.3)

0.952
(40.6)

-0.0110
(-21.5)

0.94

Ro- ro

13.5
(13.0)

1.07
(4.41)

-0.0151
(-1.33)

0.64

0.313
(86.9)

-0.000965
(-33.5)

0.93

0.349
(51.9)

-0.00109
(-24.9)

0.98

-0.000270
(-56.5)

0.96

-0.0178
(-43.5)

0.87

-0.243
(-4.63)

0.77

Carrier
Bulk
Carrier
Ore

16.3
(196)
15.7
(92.7)

Tanker
General
Cargo
Passenger

- statistics

DWT measured

10.0
(217)
3.66
(7.05)

11.7
(16.3)

shown in brackets.
in '000 tonnes.

114

TABLE C .3
DRAUGHT

Ship Type

e+$

.(DWT)+y .( D W )2+
B

R2

Container

4.73
(42.8)

0.334
(29.5)

-0.00372
(-15.1)

0.89

Ro-ro

4.42
(22.5)

0.423
(9.29)

-0,00844
(-3.95)

0.85

-0.000303
(-29.3)

0.93

-0.000141
(-8.49)

0.97

-0.0000842
(-63.1)

0.98

Bulk Carrier

Carrier
Ore

7.50
(250)

0 .l09
(84.2)

7.56
(117)

0.0849
(33.1)

Tanker

8.35
(382)

General
Cargo

3.62
(161)

Passenger
~

DWT

0-552
(119)

4.15
(6.87)
~~

~~

~~

0.953
(2.19)
~

statistics shown in brackets.


measured in 000 tonnes.

115

-0.00974
0.87
(-48.7)
-0.0512
(-1.16)

0.32

T A B L E C.4

GRT

Ship

a. (DWT)B .E

Container
Ro- ro

588
(159)
668
(59.4)

Bulk Carrier

844 0.97
(597)

Ore Carrier

833
(110)

Tanker

R2

1 .l7
(78.5)

0.95

1.06
(19.1)

0.77

0.898
(273)
0.886
(50.8)

0.90

855
(1320)

0.99

General Cargo

504
(793)

0.94

Passenger

3900 0.64
(88.7)

statistics shown in brackets.

DWT measured

in '000 tonnes.

116

0.766
(8.28)

TABLE C.5
NRT

Ship

a. (DWT)B .E

R2

Container

332
(70.5)

1 .l8
(38.7)

0.82

Ro-ro

235
(45-0)

1.22
(19.9)

0.79

Bulk Carrier

359
(83.2)

1.01
(48-9)

0.49

Ore Carrier

486 0.61
(46.5)

0.796
(21.0)

1490 0.46
(45.7)

0.914
(5.76)

Tanker
General Cargo
Passenger

DWT

statistics shown in brackets.


measured in '000 tonnes.

117

T A B L E C.6
AGE

Ship

a + ~ .( D W T ) - ~ + E

c(

Container

no significant regression

Ro-ro

no significant regression

Bulk Carrier 76.3

5.74
(24.8)

R2

0.07
(13.8)

Ore Carrier

9.69
(17.7)

126
(10.3)

0.28

Tanker

6.80
(35.5)

205
(35.7)

0.30

General Cargo

6.01
(105)

no significant regression

Passenger
t

statistics shown in brackets.

DWT measured in

1 .l9
(15.9)

'000 tonnes.

0.06

TABLE C.7
HORSEPOWER
Ship

u+p

.(DWT)+E
B

Container

0.66
.6840
(-4.77)

1800
(25.9)

Ro-

1010
0.55
(0.95)

1340
(11.4)

ro

R2

Bulk Carrier

5740
(61.3)

161
(70.6)

0.67

Ore Carrier

3650
(10.l)

180
(27.l)

0.73

Tanker

9610
(69.2)

98.5
(92.8)

0.74

General Cargo

0.52
1090
(15.1)

571
(66.6)

Passenger

0.415140
(3.02)

2480
(5.22)

statistics shown in brackets.

DWT measured
1 hp

in '000 tonnes.

0.746 kW.

119

TABLE C.8
SPEED

a. (DWT)6 .E

Container
Ro-

ro

Bulk Carrier
Ore Carrier

R2

0.237
(28.9)

0.71

0.173
(7.06)

0.32

0.0404
(17.8)

0.11

0.0662
(9.35)

0.24

Tanker

0.0269
(20.6)

0 .l2

General Cargo

0 .l37
(62.6)

0.49

0.115
(4.80)

0.37

Passenger

- statistics

DWT

shown in brackets.

measured in '000 tonnes.

TABLE C.9

CONTAINER CAPACITY

a.

(DWT)6

43.8
(80.7)

(60.3)

Ship
Container
1.04

DWT

.E

statistics shown in brackets.


measured in '000 tonnes.

120

R2

FIGURES 4-67

'*I

denotes one data point

'2'

denotes two coincident data points

'9'

denotes nine or more coincident data points.

121

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