Introduction:

It may be cumbersome and time consuming to determine the probability for

binomial and Poisson random variables. Under certain circumstances, normal
distribution can be used to approximate these two discrete probability
distributions. To use a continuous probability distribution to approximate the
discrete probability distribution, continuity correction is necessary.
Binomial distribution is a discrete distribution in a sequence with an independent
event having the probability of two possible outcome. Poisson random variables
is a discrete distribution in a sequence with a number of independent outcomes
occurring in a fixed interval as compared to the known mean.
It may be easy to determine the binomial distribution for a small number of n,
however for a large number of independent test n, it is troublesome as the
possibilities are greater. For instance, it is easy to calculate at least 3 heads in 6
coin throws, however it will be loads of work to calculate at least 10 heads in 20
coin throws. In this scenario, normal distribution may come to use to solve the
problem easily.

Methodology:
The approach to address the given problem is to understand the theoretical
concept of the distribution. The understanding on the differences of the
distributions is studied. The information regarding the concept is researched
through the internet, reference books as well as textbooks.
Besides theoretical approach, mathematical calculation is shown as an empirical
evidence to support the theory. The mathematical calculation shows the practical
approach and the actual use in applying the distribution accurately in our lives.
The calculation is expressed through some examples as well as detailed
explanation about the results in this assignment.
To process complicated and repetitive calculations regarding the probabilities,
Microsoft Excel is used to facilitate the calculation with better accuracy due to
decimal points. The binomial, Poisson and the approximated normal distribution
is calculated using Microsoft Excel. Besides that, the plotting of the probability
distribution is done through Microsoft Excel. Formula function such as
BINOM.DIST.RANGE and NORM.DIST is used.

Results:
1 (a) Determine the probability distribution for a binomial random variable, X,
with parameters n and p in each of the following cases.
The formula for binomial probability is:

P(X=x)= nCxpx(1-p)n-x
Where n is the number of the events.
p is the probability of success.
c is the number of successful outcomes.
(i)

n=10, p=0.1

P(X=0) =

10

Co (0.1)0(0.9)10= 0.3487

P(X=1) =

10

P(X=2) =

10

P(X=3) =

10

P(X=4) =

10

P(X=5) =

10

P(X=6) =

10

P(X=7) =

10

P(X=8) =

10

P(X=9) =

10

C1 (0.1)1(0.9)9= 0.3874
C2 (0.1)2(0.9)8= 0.1937
C3 (0.1)3(0.9)7= 0.0574
C4 (0.1)4(0.9)6= 0.0112
C5 (0.1)5(0.9)5= 0.0015
C6 (0.1)6(0.9)4= 0.0001
C7 (0.1)7(0.9)3= 9 x 10-6
C8 (0.1)8(0.9)2= 4 x 10-7
C9 (0.1)9(0.9)1= 9 x 10-9

P(X=10) =

10

C10 (0.1)10(0.9)0= 1 x 10-10

The other calculation is tabulated.

(ii)

n=10, p=0.2

Number of success, c
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Probability of the event P(X=c)

0.1074
0.2684
0.3020
0.2013
0.0881
0.0264
0.0055
0.0008
7x 10-5
4x 10-6
1x 10-7

(iii)

n=10, p=0.3

Number of success, c
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
(iv)

n=10, p=0.5

Number of success, c
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
(v)

Probability of the event P(X=c)

0.0283
0.1211
0.2335
0.2668
0.2001
0.1029
0.03676
0.0090
0.0014
0.0001
5.9049E-06

Probability of the event P(X=c)

0.0010
0.0098
0.0439
0.11718
0.205078125
0.24609375
0.205078125
0.1171875
0.043945313
0.009765625
0.000976563

n=20, p=0.1

Number of success, c
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

Probability of the event P(X=c)

0.121576655
0.270170344
0.285179807
0.190119871
0.089778828
0.031921361
0.008867045
0.001970454
0.000355776
5.27076E-05
6.44204E-06
6.50711E-07
5.4226E-08
3.70776E-09
2.05987E-10

15
16
17
18
19
20
(vi)

n=20, p=0.2

Number of success, c
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
(vii)

9.15496E-12
3.1788E-13
8.3106E-15
1.539E-16
1.8E-18
1E-20

Probability of the event P(X=c)

0.011529215
0.057646075
0.136909429
0.205364143
0.218199402
0.174559522
0.109099701
0.05454985
0.022160877
0.007386959
0.002031414
0.000461685
8.65659E-05
1.33178E-05
1.66473E-06
1.66473E-07
1.30057E-08
7.65041E-10
3.18767E-11
8.38861E-13
1.04858E-14

n=20, p=0.3

Number of success, c
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Probability of the event P(X=c)

0.000797923
0.006839337
0.027845873
0.071603672
0.130420974
0.178863051
0.191638983
0.164261985
0.11439674
0.065369566
0.030817081
0.012006655
0.003859282
0.001017833
0.000218107
3.73898E-05

16
17
18
19
20
(viii)

5.00756E-06
5.04964E-07
3.60688E-08
1.62717E-09
3.48678E-11

n=20, p=0.5

Number of success, c
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Probability of the event P(X=c)

9.53674E-07
1.90735E-05
0.000181198
0.001087189
0.004620552
0.014785767
0.036964417
0.073928833
0.120134354
0.160179138
0.176197052
0.160179138
0.120134354
0.073928833
0.036964417
0.014785767
0.004620552
0.001087189
0.000181198
1.90735E-05
9.53674E-07

(b) Plot the probability distributions obtained in part (a). Comment on the shapes
of the distributions.

1a(i) Binomial probability distribution n=10,p=0.1

0.5
0.4
0.3

probability 0.2
0.1
0

number of successful events

For 1a(i), distribution is extremely skewed to the right.

10

1a(ii) n=10, p=0.2

0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2

probability 0.15
0.1
0.05
0

10

number of successful events

For 1a(ii), the distribution is skewed to the right.

1a(iii) n=10, p=0.3

0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0

10

For 1a(iii), the distribution is slightly skewed to the right.

1a(iv) n=10, p=0.5

0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0

10

For 1a(iv), the distribution does not display any skewedness and has a bell
shape.

1a(v) n=20, p=0.1

0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

For 1a(v), the distribution is extremely skewed to the right.

1a(vi) n=20, p=0.2

0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

For 1a(vi), the distribution is skewed to the right.

1a(vii) n=20, p=0.3

0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

For 1a(vii), the distribution is slightly skewed to the right.

1a(viii) n=20, p=0.5

0.2
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

For 1a(viii), the distribution does not display any skewedness and has a bell
shape.

(c) Determine which of the probability distributions are bell shaped. In each of
these cases, use the normal distribution with parameters =np and 2=npq to
calculate P(x-0.5 < X < x+0.5) where x=0, 1, 2, , n.
In the above probability distributions, a (iv) and a (viii) resembles the bell shape
that is portrayed in normal distributions.
To approximate binomial distributions to normal distributions, the parameters of
mean and variance 2 is calculated.
For example a (iv), the number of events, n is 10 and the probability of success,
p is 0.5, q is the probability of failure, which equals to 1-p
Mean= 5, variance= 2.5
The normal distribution is X

N (5, 2.5)

For x=0, P (0-0.5 < X < 0+0.5) =

P (-0.5 < X < 0.5) = P (

0.55
2.5

<Z<

0.55
2.5

= P (-3.4785 < Z < -2.8460)

= P ( Z < -2.8460) P ( Z > -3.4785)
distribution]
= 0.002213263 - 0.000252109
= 0.001961154

0.0020

[Lower-tail

x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Continuity calculation formula

P ( -0.5 < x < 0.5)
P ( 0.5 < x < 1.5)
P ( 1.5 < x < 2.5)
P ( 2.5 < x < 3.5)
P ( 3.5 < x < 4.5)
P ( 4.5 < x < 5.5)
P ( 5.5 < x < 6.5)
P ( 6.5 < x < 7.5)
P ( 7.5 < x < 8.5)
P ( 8.5 < x < 9.5)
P ( 9.5 < x < 10.5)

Probability
0.001961154
0.011215085
0.043494801
0.114467707
0.204523961
0.248170366
0.204523961
0.114467707
0.043494801
0.011215085
0.001961154

For example a(viii), the number of events, n is 20 and the probability of success,
p is 0.5.
Mean= 10, Variance= 5
The normal distribution is X

N (10, 5)

Continuity correction of 0.5 is used with lower tail calculation.

x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Continuity calculation formula

P ( -0.5 < x < 0.5)
P ( 0.5 < x < 1.5)
P ( 1.5 < x < 2.5)
P ( 2.5 < x < 3.5)
P ( 3.5 < x < 4.5)
P ( 4.5 < x < 5.5)
P ( 5.5 < x < 6.5)
P ( 6.5 < x < 7.5)
P ( 7.5 < x < 8.5)
P ( 8.5 < x < 9.5)
P ( 9.5 < x < 10.5)
P ( 10.5 < x < 11.5)
P ( 11.5 < x < 12.5)
P ( 12.5 < x < 13.5)
P ( 13.5 < x < 14.5)
P ( 14.5 < x < 15.5)
P ( 15.5 < x < 16.5)
P ( 16.5 < x < 17.5)
P ( 17.5 < x < 18.5)
P ( 18.5 < x < 19.5)
P ( 19.5 < x < 20.5)

Probability
9.43x 10-6
6.1206E-05
0.00032615
0.001427102
0.005127931
0.015132524
0.036676762
0.073013805
0.119391239
0.16036416
0.176936726
0.16036416
0.119391239
0.073013805
0.036676762
0.015132524
0.005127931
0.001427102
0.00032615
0.0000612
0.00000943

(d) Suggest the condition under which the binomial distribution can be
approximated by the normal distribution.
The binomial distribution can be approximated by the normal distribution when
the probability of success, p is approximately 0.5 and the number of events, n is
large. This is because the expected value of the distribution (mean) will be
similar to the median and mode of the distribution, which is a condition for
standardised normal distribution.
Hence, binomial distribution can be approximated by the normal distribution on
the condition when n 10

and p 0.5 .

2 (a) Determine the probability distribution for a Poisson random variable, Y, with
parameter = 1, 3, 5, , 25.
Poisson probability distribution relies on the known mean, . The formula for
Poisson probability function:

P ( X=x )=

e
x!

Where x is the number of successful outcomes.

is the known mean of the Poisson distribution.
In Poisson probability distribution, there is no restriction on the number of
events. Poisson is also a discrete probability distribution. To simplify our
calculation, we will take in consideration of the number of event such that the
probability is more than 1x 10-4.
For =1,

e1 10
(
)
X
=0
=
=0.3679
P
0!
e1 11
(
)
P X =1 = 1 ! =0.3679
e1 12
(
)
X
=2
=
=0.1839
P
2!
1 3
e 1
(
)
X
=3
=
=0.0613
P
3!
1 4
e 1
(
)
X
=4
=
=0.0153
P
4!

1 5
e 1
(
)
X
=5
=
=0.0031
P
5!
1 6
e 1
(
)
X
=6
=
=0.0005
P
6!
1 7
e 1
(
)
X
=7
=
=7 X 105
P
7!

( X =7 ) will not be taken into consideration in our plotting due to the

insignificance of the data.

Examples of calculation of =3, 5, 7
X
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
X
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Probability of Poisson function with

=3
0.049787
0.149361
0.224042
0.224042
0.168031
0.100819
0.050409
0.021604
0.008102
0.002701
0.00081
0.000221
Probability of Poisson function with
=5
0.006738
0.03369
0.084224
0.140374
0.175467
0.175467
0.146223
0.104445
0.065278
0.036266
0.018133
0.008242
0.003434
0.001321
0.000472
0.000157

Probability of Poisson function with

=7
0.000912
0.006383
0.022341
0.052129
0.091226
0.127717
0.149003
0.149003
0.130377
0.101405
0.070983
0.045171
0.02635
0.014188
0.007094
0.003311
0.001448
0.000596
0.000232

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

(b) Plot the probability distributions obtained in part 2(a). Comment on the
shapes of the distributions.

Poisson probability distribution for = 1

0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25

Probability

0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0

Number of successful events, x

Poisson probability distribution for = 3

14
12
10
8

probability

6
4
2
0

10

11

12

number of successful events, x

Poisson probability distribution for = 5

18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Poisson probability distribution for = 7

20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Poisson probability distribution for = 9

25
20
15
10
5
0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Poisson probability distribution for = 11

30
25
20
15
10
5
0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Poisson probability distribution for = 13

35
30
25
20
15
10
5

29

27

25

23

21

19

17

15

13

11

Poisson probability distribution for = 15

0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02

38

36

34

32

30

28

26

24

22

20

18

16

14

12

8
10

Poisson probability distribution for = 17

0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02

32

30

28

26

24

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

Poisson probability distribution for = 19

0.1
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
36

34

32

30

28

26

24

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

Poisson probability distribution for = 21

0.1
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
39

36

33

30

27

24

21

18

15

12

Poisson probability distribution for = 23

0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
42

39

36

33

30

27

24

21

18

15

12

Poisson probability distribution for = 25

0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
42

39

36

33

30

27

24

21

18

15

12

For the known mean = 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, the Poisson probability distribution is

skewed to the right.
For the larger known mean = 13, 15, 17, 19, the Poisson probability distribution
shows little skewedness and resembles the bell shape in a normal distribution.
For the larger known mean =21, 23, 25, the Poisson probability distribution is
slightly skewed to the left although it has a bell shape like in a normal
distribution. This is due to the lower number of n calculated, resulting the
skewedness onto the left.

(c) Determine which of the probability distributions are bell shaped. In each of
these cases, use the normal distribution with parameters

and

to calculate P (y-0.5 < Y < y+0.5), where y=0, 1, 2,

From the above diagrams, it can be seen that from the Poisson mean, of 13
onwards, it exhibits the bell shape curve similar to that of the normal
distribution. For the larger value of , it appears that it is skewed to the right due
to the lower number of events, n that is computed into the data. If a greater
number of n is calculated, the distribution will resembles a bell shape.
The approximated normal distribution has the mean and variance of .
The normal distribution, Y

N (13, 13)

For y=0, P (y-0.5 < Y < y+0.5) =P (-0.5 < Y < 0.5)
=P (

0.513
0.513
<Z <

13
13

=P (-3.7442 < Z < -3.469)

=P (Z <-3.469) P (Z >-3.7442)

[Lower

tail]
= 0.000263272- 0.0000905
Y
0
1
2
3
4
5

Continuity Correction
formula
P (-0.5 < Y < 0.5)
P (0.5 < Y < 1.5)
P (1.5 < Y < 2.5)
P (2.5 < Y < 3.5)
P (3.5 < Y < 4.5)
P (4.5 < Y < 5.5)

0.0001728
Probability
0.000173
0.000449
0.001082
0.002414
0.004991
0.009557

6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26

P (5.5 < Y < 6.5)

P (6.5 < Y < 7.5)
P (7.5 < Y < 8.5)
P (8.5 < Y < 9.5)
P (9.5 < Y < 10.5)
P (10.5 < Y < 11.5)
P (11.5 < Y < 12.5)
P (12.5 < Y < 13.5)
P (13.5 < Y < 14.5)
P (14.5 < Y < 15.5)
P (15.5 < Y < 16.5)
P (16.5 < Y < 17.5)
P (17.5 < Y < 18.5)
P (18.5 < Y < 19.5)
P (19.5 < Y < 20.5)
P (20.5 < Y < 21.5)
P (21.5 < Y < 22.5)
P (22.5 < Y < 23.5)
P (23.5 < Y < 24.5)
P (24.5 < Y < 25.5)
P (25.5 < Y < 26.5)

0.016955
0.027865
0.042425
0.059841
0.078195
0.094659
0.106158
0.110293
0.106158
0.094659
0.078195
0.059841
0.042425
0.027865
0.016955
0.009557
0.004991
0.002414
0.001082
0.000449
0.000173

(d) Suggest the condition under which the Poisson distribution can be
approximated to normal distribution.
The Poisson distribution can be approximated by the normal distribution on the
condition when the known mean of the Poisson distribution, is large. In the
above example, as the approaches 13, the bell shape is more refined and no
longer skewed to the right. Hence, the condition which the Poisson distribution
can be approximated is when 10.
The larger the value of the known mean, , the more refined the approximation
of the normal distribution. The approximated probability distribution will be
clearly shown in a bell shape as a larger value of n is calculated. This is because
there is no limit to n in Poisson definition of fixed interval.

Conclusion:
Throughout the calculations, it can be concluded that binomial and Poisson
probability distributions can be approximated to normal distribution under
certain conditions.
For binomial distribution: n 10

and p 0.5 .

For Poisson distribution: 10

The reason to approximate to normal distribution is to ease the complicated and
troublesome process to compute each and every probability for a discrete
random variable. For large number of events, n, it is preferred to use normal
distribution on the condition given above. The differences between the binomial/
Poisson probability distribution compared to the normal approximation is
insignificantly small as we show here.

According to the examples 1a(iv), the binomial probability and the approximated
normal probability is tabulated together to examine the difference in accuracy.
X

Binomial probability

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

0.0010
0.0098
0.0439
0.1172
0.2051
0.2461
0.2051
0.1172
0.0439
0.0098
0.0010

Approximated normal
probability
0.0020
0.0112
0.0435
0.1145
0.2045
0.2482
0.2045
0.1145
0.0435
0.0112
0.0020

Difference
0.0010
0.0014
-0.0005
-0.0027
-0.0006
0.0021
-0.0006
-0.0027
-0.0005
0.0014
0.0010

For Poisson probability distribution, the example of =13 is taken.

Y

Poisson probability

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

2.26 x 10-6
2.94 x 10-5
0.0002
0.0008
0.0027
0.0070
0.0152
0.0281
0.0457
0.0661
0.0859
0.1015
0.1099
0.1099
0.1021
0.0885
0.0719
0.0550
0.0397
0.0272
0.0177
0.0109
0.0065
0.0037
0.0020
0.0010

Approximated normal
probability
0.0002
0.0004
0.0011
0.0024
0.0050
0.0096
0.0170
0.0279
0.0424
0.0598
0.0782
0.0947
0.1062
0.1103
0.1062
0.0947
0.0782
0.0598
0.0424
0.0279
0.0170
0.0096
0.0050
0.0024
0.0011
0.0004

Difference
0.0002
0.0004
0.0009
0.0016
0.0023
0.0026
0.0018
-0.0003
-0.0033
-0.0062
-0.0077
-0.0068
-0.0038
0.0004
0.0041
0.0062
0.0063
0.0049
0.0027
0.0007
-0.0007
-0.0014
-0.0015
-0.0012
-0.0009
-0.0006

As observed in both examples, the differences between both the actual

calculation and the approximation is insignificant. Hence, the normal distribution

approximation method is recommended to be used when the number of events n

is large.