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(Last updated 9/17/02)

Images to supplement this research story are available. Image page 1, page 2
and page 3.

Previous OSU research stories about the ice core analyses and
paleoclimatology:

"Latest Ice Core May Solve Mystery Of Ancient Volcanic Eruptions," 6/27/02

"Ice Coring Team Heads For Alaskan Glaciers; Hope To Retrieve First North
American Long-Term Climate Record From Ice," 4/21/02

Ice Caps In Africa, Tropical South America Likely To Disappear Within 15 Years,
2/12/01

Himalyan Ice Cores Reveal Climate Warming, Catastrophic Drought, (9/8/00)

Oldest Ice Core From The Tropics Recovered, New Ice Age Evidence, (12/3/98)

Researchers In Himalayas Retrieve Highest Ice Core Ever Drilled, (11/21/97)

Researchers Date Chinese Ice Core To 500,000 Years, (6/12/97)

Latest Evidence Of Global Warming Found In Tropics And Subtropics, (4/23/97)

Ice Cores Show Record Of Climate Dating Back 20,000 Years, (7/26/95)

Chinese Ice Cores Provide Climate Records Of Four Ice Ages, (11/30/92)

Evidence Of Global Warming Reported To Senate Hearing, (3/6/92)

Chinese Ice Cap May Reveal Clues To Earth's Climate, (7/2/91)

Recent recognitions of OSU's paleoclimatology research group:

Time Magazine, CNN Name OSU Geologist One Of "America's Best"

Time Magazine coverage of that citation, 9/18/02

Glaciologist Thompson To Receive Prestigious Heineken Award," 4/21/02.

(NOTE: This story embargoed for release until 2 PM Eastern Time Thursday,
October 3, 2002 to coincide with publication in the journal Science.)

AFRICAN ICE CORE ANALYSIS REVEALS CATASTROPHIC DROUGHTS,

SHRINKING ICE FIELDS AND CIVILIZATION SHIFTS

COLUMBUS, Ohio A detailed analysis of six cores retrieved from the rapidly
shrinking ice fields atop Tanzanias Mount Kilimanjaro shows that those
tropical glaciers began forming about 11,700 years ago.

The cores also yielded remarkable evidence of three catastrophic droughts

that plagued the tropics 8,300, 5,200 and 4,000 years ago.

Lastly, the analysis also supports Ohio State University researchers

prediction that these unique bodies of ice will disappear in the next two
decades, the victims of global warming. These findings were published today
in the journal Science.

Lonnie Thompson
Lonnie Thompson, professor of geological sciences at Ohio State and leader
of an expedition in 2000 to retrieve these cores, called Kilimanjaros ice fields
stagnant and said they are wasting away.

Thompson and his colleagues retrieved six cores from the mountain two
years ago after his team spent more than a month camped at a drill site
above 19,300 feet. After a logistical nightmare requiring the hiring of 92
porters and obtaining 25 official permits, the team returned 215 meters (705
feet) of frozen ice core to the freezers at the universitys Byrd Polar Research
Center.

Whatever happened to cause these dramatic climate changes in the past,

they could certainly occur again.

One key to dating the core came with the finding of a chemical marker in the
ice -- a spike of the isotope chlorine-36, a radioactive remnant of nuclear
bomb testing in 1951-52. The same spike appears in cores the team had
retrieved from both South America and China, allowing them to calibrate the
historic records trapped in the ice.

Clues from the cores suggest a much diferent, far wetter landscape near
Kilimanjaro 9,500 years ago than is there today. Thompson said that at that
time, Lake Chad, now the fourth-largest body of water on the African
continent and measuring about 17,000 square kilometers today, covered
some 350,000 square kilometers an area larger than the Caspian Sea.

This map, produced by OSU researchers, shows the retreat of Kilimanjaro's

ice cap since 1912. During that period, more than 80 percent of the
mountains glaciers were lost. All ice will probably be lost on the mountaintop
within 15 years. (Click here for larger version.)
The analysis of the core showed a 500-year period beginning around 8,300
years ago when methane levels in the ice dropped dramatically. We believe
that this represents a time when the lakes of Africa were drying up,
Thompson said, adding that the methane levels would register the extent of
the wetlands thriving in the tropics.

The cores showed an abrupt depletion in oxygen-18 isotopes that researchers

believe signals a second drought event occurring around 5,200 years ago.
This coincides with the period when anthropologists believe people in the

region began to come together to form cities and social structures. Prior to
this, the population of mainly hunters and gatherers had been more
scattered.

The third marker is a visible dust layer in the ice cores dating back to about
4,000 years ago. Thompson believes this marks a severe 300-year drought
which struck the region. Historical records show that a massive drought
rocked the Egyptian empire at the time and threatened the rule of the
Pharaohs. Until this time, Thompson said, people had been able to survive in
areas that are now just barren Sahara Desert.

Last year Thompson initially predicted in a presentation at the American

Association for the Advancement of Science last year that Kilimanjaros ice
fields would vanish within 15 years. More recent evidence is reinforcing this
prediction.

By using global positioning satellites, aerial maps and an array of stakes

placed on the ice cap, the researchers were able to confirm that the volume
of the glacier is shrinking as well.

We found that the summit of the ice fields has lowered by at least 17 meters
(nearly 56 feet) since 1962, Thompson said. "Thats an average shrinkage of
about a half-meter in height each year.

They were also able to show that the margin of the ice field had retreated as
much as one meter since 2000. Thats a meters worth of ice lost from a wall
50 meters (164 feet) high - thats an enormous amount of ice.

Automated weather stations on the summit of Kilimanjaro and on the

lowlands nearby now provide scientists with the ability to monitor local
conditions in the region. Thompson says that with another major El Nino
event expected soon, what happens on the mountain will be very interesting
to watch.

Whatever happened to cause these dramatic climate changes in the past,

they could certainly occur again, he said. But today, 70 percent of the
worlds population lives in the tropics. They would be dramatically afected by
events of this nature. We have to find out what causes them to happen.

Along with Thompson, other members of the research team include Ellen
Mosley Thompson, professor of geography, Victor Zagorodnov, Henry
Brecher, Mary Davis, Keith Henderson, Ping-Nan Lin, Tracy Mashiotta,
Vladamir Mikhalenko, Douglas Hardy and Jurg Beer.

The project was supported in part by a grant from the Earth System History
Program of the National Science Foundation.

Contact: Lonnie Thompson, (614) 292-6652; thompson.3@osu.edu

Written by Earle Holland, (614) 292-8384; Holland.8@osu.edu