3/10/2015

China Challenges ASEAN with Land Fills in South China Sea | The Diplomat

China Challenges ASEAN with Land Fills in

South China Sea
With ongoing reclamation work, the outlook for the region
remains grim.
By Luke Hunt
March 10, 2015

A stunning series of photos released by the Center for Strategic and

International Studies (CSIS) in Washington D.C. offer a grim outlook
for the region as Beijing ratchets-up its territorial assertions over the
hotly disputed Spratly and Paracel islands.

Image Credit: REUTERS/Erik De Castro

At least four major man-made structures have been erected on Itu, Gaven, Johnson South and Fiery Cross reefs with supply
platforms, communications, gun emplacements, and docking facilities installed alongside artificial islands over the winter
months.
CSIS analyst Greg Poling said Chinas reclamation work in the South China Sea known as the East Sea in Hanoi and the West
Philippines Sea in Manila was progressing faster than anticipated and that Beijing had gone further than any other claimant.
Its reclamation certainly violates the spirit of the 2002 Declaration of Conduct (DOC) between China and ASEAN, and is at
best on shaky legal grounds, he said.
The DOC is supposed to facilitate dialogue among the 10 members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)
and China, providing a means to halt potential confrontations in the South China Sea before they escalate into something much
worse.
But its implementation remains incomplete and Beijing is demanding territorial disputes involving the Spratly or Paracels be
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China Challenges ASEAN with Land Fills in South China Sea | The Diplomat

dealt with on a bilateral basis and not at a regional level through a unified ASEAN approach. That has divided loyalties within
ASEAN.
Of members with overlapping claims, the Philippines and Vietnam have been vocal and Hanoi has been on a defense build-up
through a series of major arms acquisitions with Russia worth billions of dollars, including six Kilo-class submarines and up to
20 Su-30 fighter-bombers.
Much to the irritation of the Chinese, Vietnam has also opened its highly strategic deep-water port at Cam Ranh Bay to the
worlds navies, in particular the United States, which built the facility and handed it over to what was then South Vietnam in
1972.
The Philippines has mounted legal action against China in the United Nations International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea and
its navy is also adding two more warships to its fleet to counter the Chinese governments increasingly assertive maritime
ambitions.
Chinese Firepower
However, their military capabilities still fall far short of a match for Chinese firepower.
Vietnam and The Philippines have limited options beyond public criticism. They cannot resort to military force, and they do
not want to enter a construction race in the Spratlys that will only destabilize the situation and which they could not win,
Poling said.
Plus, for the Philippines especially, they must be seen to be maintaining the legal high ground as their arbitration case moves
forward.
Chinas emphasis is always on its String of Pearls strategy a forward line of friendly ports and islands stretching from its
coastline into the Gulf of Siam and the Indian Ocean. This was noted during the search for the missing Malaysian Airlines
Flight MH370.
The strategy is designed to protect its military and economic interests by securing alternative trade routes through the U.S.Controlled Malacca Straits.
Construction of an oil and gas pipeline across Burma and into Chinas backyard and planned railway lines through Indochina
are prime examples of Beijing actively creating alternative, secure trade routes.
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China Challenges ASEAN with Land Fills in South China Sea | The Diplomat

In the South China Sea its antics include creeping inside the 200 km exclusive economic zones that all littoral players in the
maritime dispute are entitled to then refusing to have the disputes heard in the international courts.
At this point, Beijing is building on almost every rock and low-tide elevation it occupies; to do any more would require
pushing another claimant off a feature or occupying an unoccupied feature, Poling said.
That would be an explicit violation of the DOC, and I dont think China is ready to go that far yet.
It almost sounds like it could be a Battle Royale being played out between political equals. But promoting a united ASEAN
front probably the best chance ASEAN member countries have of success to Chinese encroachments has met with little
success.
Singapore, Thailand, Myanmar and Laos have not backed a united approach to China over the dispute while Cambodia has
openly sided with Beijing.
Not helping are Malaysia and Brunei, which have claims over the southern Paracels Islands, and have adopted a softly-softly
approach, preferring to negotiate quietly with Beijing through diplomatic channels.
The wild card in the ASEAN equation is Indonesia, with recently elected President Joko Widodo yet to declare his hand after
Beijing ended years of speculation and confirmed that its maritime claims, as defined by its nine-dash line, does indeed overlap
Indonesias hold across the Natuna Sea.
Divisions within ASEAN have been to Chinas advantage.
Beijings relentless claims to the scattered atolls and reefs that fall within its now infamous Nine-Dash Line are national
territory based on often the most flimsy and tangential claims is now literally being made concrete through a high speed
construction program, said Gavin Greenwood, an analyst with Hong Kong-based regional security firm Allan & Associates.
For Beijing this may appear as a logical measure intended both to claim valuable resources while extending China defensible
space. To the neighbors, the U.S. and much of the rest of the international community it appears as a softer version of Russias
policy towards Ukraine: The creation of a line that can only be crossed with consequences.
Greenwood said the U.S. card, particularly in the case of the Philippines, would be prominent given that its Asian pivot policy
was at least partially responsible for China stepping-up its island construction program, which had not yet been matched by a
serious counter response from Washington.
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China Challenges ASEAN with Land Fills in South China Sea | The Diplomat

While the U.S. Navy plans to increase its presence in the region through eventually forward basing in Singapore up to four
small warships capable of little more than flying the flag, China is developing a powerful force of highly capable destroyers
that will serve as a credible deterrence.
Familiar Ring
He also said Chinas strategy held a familiar ring.
Creating facts on the ground is a traditional rationalization for a revolutionary movement which can mean among other
things like the transition from theory, or weakness, into practice, or strength.
The program of dredging and construction on the remote islets appear like so many of Chinas more utilitarian
infrastructure projects to be beyond accountancy and pursued without regard to cost.
From Beijings perspective once the cement on an airstrip or fortification set atop a reef has hardened Chinas claim has
become a reality and the new land is as sovereign as Tiananmen Square and just as non-negotiable.
To date, clashes in the disputed waters have been limited to tussles among frontline naval and fishing vessels, which have
combined with the naval brinkmanship deployed by governments at home.
But the chances of independently verifying any claim from either side are slim, given that the logistics of maritime
confrontations make them all but impossible for journalists to cover.
This will further complicate issues. Poling said Chinese reclamation work could be substantially finished by the end of the year,
adding to concerns already held by strategists over the flashpoint.
The size of the reclaimed features is also surprising, and will probably allow China to begin projecting more air and sea patrol
and surveillance capabilities over the Spratlys by the end of 2015.
Overall, I expect this increased presence of Chinese units in the area along with tensions from the probable arbitration court
ruling to make this another tense and potentially dangerous year in the South China Sea, he said.
Luke Hunt can be followed on Twitter @lukeanthonyhunt

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