3/1/2013

CHAPTER 3
EMG 4101 Coastal Zone Management
Dr Rohasliney Hashim

"the arrangements,
activities and inputs
people undertake in a
certain land cover type to
produce, change or
maintain it" (FAO, 1997a;
FAO/UNEP, 1999)

Chapter 3 Land use

General Outcomes:
1. Understand the relationship of land use (LU) and costal
ecosystem
Specific Outcomes:
1. Explain LU activities developed at the coastal areas
2. Goal of management related to land use
3. Impact for management for each coastal ecosystem

Urban/built-up
land

Pasture/meadow

Barren
land/unproductive

Forest

Water

Types of land use

3/1/2013

Mangrove

Control of exploitation of stocks

Maintenance of adequate but not excessive primary production

Sandy
beaches

Sea grass
Ecosystem

Maintenance of habitat

Maintenance of species diversity

Coral
reefs

Subtidal
rocky
shore

Ocean & Coastal Management 67 (2012) 113e123

Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect

Ocean & Coastal Management

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ocecoaman

Assessment of drivers of coastal land use change in Malaysia

A.O. Olaniyi a, *, A.M. Abdullah a, M.F. Ramli a, M.S. Alias b
a
b

Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Environmental Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
Department of Forest Production, Faculty of Forestry, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia

a r t i c l e i n f o

a b s t r a c t

Article history:
Available online 28 June 2012

Drivers of coastal land use change (CLUC) were assessed between 1990 and 2006 in Selangor, Malaysia.
Land use maps for the state (Selangor, Malaysia) for 1990 and 2006 and their respective biophysical and
socio e economic data were obtained from the Malaysian departments of agriculture, survey and
statistics respectively. Vector maps of socio economic variables were prepared in a GIS environment. All
maps (land use maps and their potential drivers) were gridded and compared at three spatial scales
using logistic regression analysis. Results indicated that agricultural practises were particularly
responsible for coastal land use change. Coastal lands were converted to agricultural uses as a result of
increased accessibility, suitable slope and favourable climatic condition of the areas. Findings further
indicated that the impact of urbanization is just becoming an important factor of coastal land use change.
While efforts of the government at coastal resources restoration and conservation is commendable,
a political will is still required in achieving sustainable development of the coastal areas in order to full
the environmental component of the ongoing Vision 2020 economic development plan.
2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
1.1. Extent of coastal land and resources in Malaysia
A coastal zone is a transitional region between the terrestrial
and marine environment with features (Ong and Gong, 2001),
which makes it one of the most productive ecosystems in the world
(Woodroffe, 2002). A coast is composed of about 200 nautical miles
seaward and 5 kme10 km landward. Based on this denition,
Malaysian coastal area is estimated to consist of about 510,510 km2
(Ismail, 2011) sustaining about 4000 of 20,000 known species of
sh, 22 of 50 species of sea snakes, four of the seven species of sea
turtles (Ong and Gong, 2001), 64 of 200 species of hard and soft
corals and about 577,558 ha of mangrove (FAO, 2002; Tan and
Basiron, 2000) (Fig. 1 and Table 1).
Of these coastal resources, mangrove forest and coral reef are
important for providing natural breeding ground for sh (Ong and
Gong, 2001) timber for poles and charcoal (Chan et al., 1993) and
buffer against coastal erosion and ood (Chong, 2006). The multiple
functions supported by the coastal zone have lead to its extensive
exploitation (Dahuri, 2005; UNEP, 2001) for human economic
benets (Kates et al., 1990; Turner and Meyer, 1994; Serneels and
Lambin, 2001; Li and Yeh, 2004) particularly in the developing
economies where open market economic policies have caused
* Corresponding author. Tel.: 60 102933451; fax: 60 389466768.
E-mail address: aolibraheem2007@yahoo.com (A.O. Olaniyi).
0964-5691/$ e see front matter 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2012.05.029

increase in demand for land (Okuda et al., 2004 cited in Abdullah

and Nakagoshi, 2007) for growing exportable crops (Goh, 1982;
Kumar, 1986; Abdullah and Nakagoshi, 2007).
1.2. Historical background of coastal land conversion in Malaysia
The history of coastal land conversion in Malaysia is dated to
1950 when the Department of Irrigation and Drainage constructed
earthen dyke along the coast of Peninsula Malaysia to reclaim the
areas for agricultural purposes (Chong, 1998; MDoF, 2001; Chong
and Sasekumar 2002). Also, the construction of the build e up
areas, sea port, industrial park and airports in various parts of
Peninsula Malaysia (Chong, 2006) as a result of industrial and
urban developments (UNEP e RRCAP, 2004) have also impacted the
coastal areas in the Peninsula Malaysia (Table 2, Fig. 2a).
The progressive conversion of the coastal land to alternative uses
has been documented to cause deforestation, pollution of marine
and inland waters, coral reef destruction, coastal erosion and ood
(Adeel and Pomeroy, 2002; Burke and Spalding, 2002; WWF, 2006).
For instance, Lim (2005) reported a loss of 100,000 ha of mangrove
area to land development due to economic policies of 1970e1980s
(McMorrow and Abdul Talip, 2001; Ibrahim, 2001; Choo, 2001).
In Vietnam, coastline erosion has been documented to occur at
an annual rate of 50 m since the early twentieth century (Mazda
et al., 1997, 2002; Cat et al., 2006) as a results of the massive
conversion of mangrove vegetation consequent upon long-term
impacts of human activities since the nineteenth century (Cat

114

A.O. Olaniyi et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 67 (2012) 113e123

Fig. 1. Study area. Source: CIA, 2007.

et al., 2006). Coastal erosion in Sagar Island in West Bengal, India, is

caused by several anthropogenic processes such as human settlement fuelwood cutting and aquaculture that remove the
mangroves and other coastal vegetation (Gopinath and Seralathan,
2005).
Coastal erosion started in the northern coast of Java Island of
Indonesia in the 1970s when most of the mangrove forest was
converted to shrimp ponds and other aquacultural farms (Bird and
Ongkosongo, 1980; Syamsudin and Riandini, 2000). Mangroves
dominating coastal locations exhibit less Ferosion than areas with
non-vegetated land or former mangrove areas. Articial and
natural agents that induce mangrove loss and make coastal areas
susceptible to erosion include excessive logging, direct land reclamation for agriculture, aquaculture, urban development and
settlement (Kovacs, 2000; Wolanski, 1992; Mazda et al., 1997;
Massel et al., 1999). Studies have found the degradation of
mangroves along the Merbok Estuary, Malaysia (Wu et al., 2001)
has led to the intensication of tidal currents and the erosion of
Malaysian (Othman, 1994) and Southern Thailand (Thampanya
et al., 2006) coastlines.
1.3. Approaches in land use change analysis
Several studies have been conducted to assess the drivers of
land use change (Geist and Lambin, 2002; Lambin et al., 2003;

Table 1
Size of mangrove forest (ha) and length of coastlines (km) by states in Malaysia.

Olaniyi et al., 2011). Bilsborrow and Okoth-Ogondo (2005) explored

the manner by which increased population could cause deforestation. Cropper et al. (1999) found population pressure, road
density and proximity to the capital city as the major factors
responsible for deforestation in Thailand. Chompitz and Gray
(1996) and Nelson and Hellerstein (1997) also found accessibility
as the main driver of land use change in Southern Belize and
Central Mexico. Seto and Kaufmann, 2003 identied foreign direct
Table 2
Rate of urbanization (%) by states in Malaysia (1980e2000).
State/period

1980

1991

1995

2000

Johore
Kedah
Kelantan
Melaka
Negeri Sem
Pahang
Perak
Perlis
Pulau Pinang
Sabah
Sarawak
Selangor
Terrengganu
Malaysia

35.2
14.4
28.1
13.4
32.6
26.1
26.1
32.2
8.9
19.9
18
34.2
42.9
34.2

48
33.1
33.7
39.4
42.5
30.6
30.6
54.3
26.7
32.8
38
75
44.6
51.1

51.8
36.9
35.7
44
44.7
31
31.9
60.5
30.4
35.2
43.4
82.6
45.1
54.7

56.4
42.1
39.4
49.8
47.6
33.7
33.7
67.8
35.3
38.2
50.5
89.4
45.7
58.8

Source: MDoS, 2010.

Table 3
Area (ha) and % change in mangrove forest reserve by state.

States

Length of
coastline (Km)b

GR(ha)a

SL (ha)a

Total (ha)

Density
(ha/km2)

States

1980a

1990a

2000b

%

Conservation
area (ha)a

Perlis
Kedah
Penang
Perak
Selangor
Negeri Sembilan
Melaka
Johor
Pahang
Terengganu
Kelantan
Sarawak
Sabah
Total

20
148
152
230
213
58
73
492
271
244
71
1094
1743
4809

0
7248
451
43500
15,090
454
166
17,832
2675
1295
0
73,000
328,658
490,369

20
400
500
150
4500
200
100
6500
2000
1000
100
59,000
12,719
87,189

20
7648
951
43,650
19,590
654
266
24,332
4675
2295
100
132,000
341,377
577,558

0
52
6
190
92
11
4
49
17
9
1
121
196
120

Perlis
Kedah
Penang
Perak
Selangor
Negeri Sembilan
Melaka
Johor
Pahang
Terengganu
Kelantan
Sarawak
Sabah
Total

0
9037
406
40,869
28,243
1352
77
25,619
2496
2982
e
44,491
349,773
505,345

0
8034
406
40,869
21,983
1061
314
16,697
2032
954
e
36,992
316,460
445,802

0
7248
451
43,500
15,090
454
166
17,831
2675
1295
e
73,000
328,658
490,368

0
19.8
11.1
6.4
46.6
66.4
115.6
30.4
7.2
56.6
0.0
64.1
6.0
3.0

GR Gazetted reserves.
SL State land.
a
Tan and Basiron, 2000.
b
Ooi, 1996.

GR Gazetted reserves.
SL State land.
a
Tan and Basiron, 2000.
b
Ooi, 1996.

42
320

26
56

385
4840
5669

A.O. Olaniyi et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 67 (2012) 113e123

115

Fig. 2. a. Rate of urbanization in selected states of Malaysia (1980e2000). Source: MDoS online database. b. Population data of selected states in Malaysia 1930e2010. Source: MDoS
online database.

investment as the main drivers of land use change in Pearl River,

China. Whereas, Othman et al. (2009) found urbanization as the
driver of land use change in the Langat Dengkil e Klang catchment
of Peninsula Malaysia. While, Olaniyi et al. (2011) reported

availability of labour as the main driver of agricultural land use in

Malaysia.
Reasonable number of studies has been conducted on land
use and land use change in Malaysia. Evidence from these

Fig. 3. a. GDP of selected states in Malaysia (1970e2009). Source: MDoS online database. b. Sectoral contribution to the GDP in Malaysia 1970e2005. Source: MDoS online database.

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A.O. Olaniyi et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 67 (2012) 113e123

Table 4
Land use for major agricultural crops in Malaysia 1960e2010 (000 ha).
Year

Rubber

Oil palm

Cocoa

Coconut

Paddy

Fruits

Total

1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010

1753
2025
2019
1992
2007
1953
1881
1679
1560
1395
1185

55
97
291
642
1023
1468
2029
2539.5
3131
3461
3637

1
3
7
29
123
304
420
190.7
163.8
160.0
160.0

246
252
271
287
300
334
314
248.9
213.8
193.2
175.5

468
503
703
758
717
662
752
672.9
521.2
475.0
450.0

40
47
55
65
61
109
177
257.7
291.5
329.8
373.2

2563
2927
3346
3773
4231
4830
5573
5589
5881
6014
5981

Various sources; Arif and Tengku Mohd Ariff (2001 :2) quoted in Rasiah and Shahrin
(2007).

studies suggested that the land use and land use change and
their associated drivers are dynamic (Serneels and Lambin,
2001; Li and Yeh, 2004; Geist and Lambin, 2002; Lambin et al.,
2003) and are therefore required to be studied progressively
(Lambin et al., 2003; Chopra et al., 2009). Studies by (Abdullah
and Nakagoshi, 2006; Abdullah and Nakagoshi, 2007; Abdullah
and Hezri, 2008; Olaniyi et al., 2011) examined the impact of
socio e economic policies on general land use change in
Malaysia and coastal pollution (Ong, 2008) and none of the
studies addressed the drivers of coastal land use. The paucity of
literature in this area make this research useful in identifying in
quantitative terms, the drivers of coastal land use and thus
provide a link between these drivers of coastal land use and
coastal degradation recently experienced in some parts of
Peninsula Malaysia.
Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the
biophysical and socio economic drivers of coastal land use
change. The analysis of the relationships will give us the insight
into the factors that caused the coastal land use change for the
prediction of the future coastal land use change. Malaysian
coastal area is of extreme socio e economic and environmental
values (WTTC, 2007; Honey and Krantz, 2007). MPP e EAS (1999)
gave an estimate of a Malaysian mangrove swamps for storm and
ood control as US$ $222,000/km (values in terms of US$ 1995
prices). French (2001); Kremmer (2005) and Moller (2006),
highlighted the roles played by the Malaysian coastal forest in
protecting the country during the 2004 tsunamis incidence (NST,
2005).
Their studies indicated that mangroves swamps along the
Malaysians coastlines protected the country from the killer waves
(NST, 2005) unlike in the neighbouring countries {VietNam (Cat

et al., 2006); Indonesia (Tjardana, 1995); Sri Lanka (Samarayanke,

2003); India (Gopinath and Seralathan, 2005) and Thailand
(Thampanya et al., 2006)} where the clearance of the coastal forests
have increased the vulnerability of the coastal areas to erosion and
ood.
Unfortunately, these coastal forests have been variously
threatened by the socio e economic activities (tourism) (Othman,
1994). The Malaysias tourism e a sub sector of the services
sector accounted for about 13.3% of the Malaysian GDP in 2006.
The tourism sub sector is now the largest contributors to the
services sector and this gure is expected to rise over time
(WTTC, 2007).
As the nation has mapped out strategies of increasing revenues
from the tourism sub sector by year 2020 (National Vision Policy e
EPU, 2009; Honey and Krantz, 2007) this is likely to have implications for coastal land use. Therefore, a detailed analysis of drivers of
coastal land use is required to provide a baseline data upon which
the impacts of National Vision Policy on coastal land use can be
assessed (Table 3).
2. Study area
The state of Selangor covers an area of about 8000 km2 (Fig. 1).
Climate in Selangor is governed by two monsoonal winds, which
originate from the North East (OctobereFebruary) and the South
West (MayeSeptember). The state has a mean annual rainfall of
about 2500 mm and average daily temperature and humidity of
26  C and 80% respectively (Loh et al., 2005). Selangor is one of the
most populous (Fig. 2b) and the richest (Fig. 3a) state in Malaysia
(Alias et al., 2010). For instance, the Malaysian Department of
Statistics (MDoS) (2010) reported that Selangor contributed 22% to
the National Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2009.
Agricultural sector has contributed signicantly to the economic
development of the state as it used to be the major source of
income, employment and foreign exchange earner (Alam et al.,
2010). Despite that the agriculture has been overtaken by the
manufacturing and the services sector (Fig. 3b), it still remained an
important sector in the production of food for the growing population (EoN, 2010).
Agricultural land use (Table 4, Fig. 4) had been identied as the
major cause of land use change in Malaysia (Abdullah and
Nakagoshi, 2007; Gillis, 1988; Goh, 1982). For example, rubber
cultivation started in the country by early 20th century when only
4% of the total land mass of Malaysia was used for cultivating rubber
(Voon Seth, 1999 cited in Abdullah and Hezri, 2008). The introduction of the land development schemes lead to an extensive
clearance of land for agricultural uses (Jomo et al., 2004 cited in

Fig. 4. Agricultural land use for major agricultural crops in Malaysia (1960e2010) source: MDoA, 2010.

A.O. Olaniyi et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 67 (2012) 113e123

117

Climatic data

Demographic data

Soil data

Infrastructure data

Topographic data

Proximity: road, river

Vector data
Slope data

Land use data:1990

Elevation data
Land use data:2006

Data rasterization (arcGIS)

Raster data

Data conversion (arcGIS)

ASCII data (matrix format)

Data vectorization (matLAB)

ASCII data (vector format)

Load into SPSS

Logistic regression analysis (SPSS)

Drivers of coastal land use

change

Fig. 5. Research framework.

Abdullah and Hezri, 2008) and by the year 2000, agricultural land
use in Malaysia has increased to about 31% compared to 1974
(Abdullah and Hezri, 2008).
Extensive agricultural land use in Malaysia was found to be
associated with the implementation of economic policies {New
Economic Plan (NEP) and First to Third Malaysian Plans} between
1965 and 1980 (McMorrow and Abdul Talip, 2001; Jomo and others
cited in Abdullah and Hezri, 2008; Lim, 1997 cited in Siwar et al.,
2006; Abdullah and Nakagoshi, 2007).

2.1. Logistic models in land use and land use change analysis
The relationship between land use and its driving factors is
a complex, dynamic and non e linear process that is usually
accomplished by comparing land use with the location specic
characteristics at a pixel level (Karimi et al., 2010). These relationships have been successfully measured with the use of logistic
models (Equation (1)) (Serneels and Lambin, 2001; Verburg et al.,
2002, 2004; Peppler-lisbach, 2003; Lesschen et al., 2005).

LogitY a 1 X1 1 X1 2 X2 3 X3 k Xk

(1)

where
Y, dependent variable; a, constant of the equation; b1. bk,
coefcients the independent variables; X1 . Xk, the independent
variables.
The spatial relationships between dependent and a set of
independent variables are usually quantied in a two procedures.
Signicant variables contributing to the model will be selected
from a pool of several variables using a forward conditional logistic
regression method and the construction of multiple regression
analysis with the variables earlier selected (Verburg et al., 2004).
The use of stepwise regression procedure removes the problem of
multicollinearity amongst the predictor variables (Verburg et al.,
2004).
The coefcients (bs) of the logit model are the values for the
respective driving factor for a particular land use type. Values lower
than 1 mean that the probability will decrease upon an increase in
the value of the independent variables whereas, the values higher
than 1 indicates an increase in the probability upon an increase in

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A.O. Olaniyi et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 67 (2012) 113e123

the value of the independent variables (Munroe et al., 2002;

Menard, 2001).
The measure of goodness of t in logistic regression is evaluated
with the Relative Operation Curve (Pontius and Schneider, 2001).
ROC is a measure of how well the independent variables correctly
predict the value of the dependent variable. An ROC value higher
than 0.7 is considered acceptable in land use modelling (Pontius
and Schneider, 2001; Hosmer and Lemeshow, 2000).
3. Methodology
3.1. Data and sources
3.1.1. Land use data
The 1990 and 2006 land use vector maps of Selangor used in this
study were collected from the Malaysian Department of Agriculture
(MDoA). Amount of change (in hectares) of mangrove forest, which
was used as a proxy for coastal land use change between 1990 and
2006, were estimated in a GIS environment.
3.1.2. GDP at district level
Socioeconomic data such population and housing density were
obtained from the Malaysian Department of Statistics (MdoS). The
population and housing densities were supplied at the district level
whereas the GDP was available at the state level. Before spatial
analysis was conducted, all data were converted to the same spatial
level by disaggregating GDP data to district level (Luijten et al.,
2006).
3.1.3. Population data
Population data for the study area were obtained from the
MDoS. Missing data for some districts were (2006, in particular)
derived by using the method documented by Braimoh and Onishi
(2007).

3.1.4. Bio e physical data

Main agro-climatic variables used in this study are precipitation
(number of raining day per annum) and temperature (minimum,
average and maximum in  C) soil, elevation and slope. These
data were derived from data provided by the Malaysian Department of Agriculture and Malaysian Meteorological Department
respectively.
Soil pH and cation exchangeable capacity (CEC) for the study
area were downscaled from the global data set of derived soil
properties (Batjes, 2000). Soil pH and CEC were selected because
they have been considered the most functional soil property that is
important in dening agricultural potentials of a piece of land (Staal
et al., 2002).
3.1.5. Proxies of coastal land use change
Elevation was included as a proxy for drainage (Monmonier,
1982) while slope data was used as a proxy for suitability of
a piece of land for agricultural purposes {the states statutory law
that prohibits the conversion of any land with slope greater than
20 to non e natural uses (MDoA, 2003)}. GDP per capita was used
as a proxy for the standard of living (Mertens and Lambin, 2000;
Yin and Li, 2001) while, proximity to a means of transportation was
used as a proxy for access to information and market (Staal et al.,
2002).
3.2. Statistical analysis
The methodology employed in this study (Fig. 5) involved the
comparison of the coastal land use (CLU) with the potential
explanatory variables on a cell by cell basis (Zhang et al., 2010; Chen
and Pontius, 2010) at three spatial resolutions namely 150, 200 and
250 m. These scales were chosen because it is related to units of
farm size maintained by different groups of land users in the study
areas.

Table 5
Potential drivers of coastal land use (CLU).
Data
Land use maps
1990 & 2006
Soil variables
Soil pH
Soil CEC
Soil suitability
Soil terrain
Soil physical units
Soil series
Bio - geophysical variables
Slope
Elevation
Numbers of raining days
Total amount of rain per year
Average temperature
Minimum temperature
Maximum temperature
Demographic variables
Total population
Percentage rural population
Percentage urban population
Rural work force
Urban work force
Total population density
Accessibility variables
Distance to lake, river
Distance to major road
Distance to minor road
Distance to river
Major road density
Major rail density
Minor road density

Unit

Reference

3 spatial resolutions (150, 200 and 250)m

ln [H]
meq/100 g
FAO suitability classes
FAO soil terrain classes
% Fraction of different soil particles
FAO soil series classes

Staal et al. 2002

Staal et al. 2002
Verburg and Chen
Verburg and Chen
Verburg and Chen
Verburg and Chen

Approved slope classes (degrees)

Elevation classes (m)
No of days with precipitation above 50 mm
mm/year

C

C

C

Verburg and Chen (2000)

Diogol and Koomen (2010)
Verburg and Chen (2000)
Verburg and Chen (2000)
Verburg and Chen (2000)
Verburg and Chen (2000)
Verburg and Chen (2000)

Both rural and urban population

% Agricultural population
% Non agricultural population
Agricultural population with age 14e65
Non agricultural population with age 14e65
Person/km2

Verburg
Verburg
Verburg
Verburg
Verburg
Verburg

Average distance from lake (km)

Average distance from major road (km)
Average distance from minor road (km)
Average distance from river (km)
Line density of major road infrastructure per grid cell
Line density of major rail infrastructure per grid cell
Line density of minor road infrastructure per grid cell

Verburg and Chen (2000)

Muller and Zeller (2002)
Muller and Zeller (2002)
Muller and Zeller (2002)
Muller and Zeller (2002)
Muller and Zeller (2002)
Muller and Zeller (2002)

and
and
and
and
and
and

Chen
Chen
Chen
Chen
Chen
Chen

(2000)
(2000)
(2000)
(2000)

(2000)
(2000)
(2000)
(2000)
(2000)
(2000)

A.O. Olaniyi et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 67 (2012) 113e123

119

Table 6
a) Variables in coastal land use model. b) Detailed drivers of coastal land use in year 2006. c) Detailed drivers of coastal land use in year 1990.
a
Variables

1990

A. Socio e economics
Age above 65
Dependency ratio
Housing density
Percentage rural
residents
Rural work force
Distance to lake
Distance to major road
Distance to minor road
Minor road density
Major river density
Primary GDP

2006

250 m

200 m

150 m

250 m

200 m

150 m

5.28
0.43

e
1.88

e

e
e
e
e

e
e
e
e

e
e
e
e

e
e

1.02

e
e
e

e
e
e

e
0.33
e
0.18
e
e
0.04
e
e

B. Land use types

Animals husbandry LU
Build up LU
Coconut LU
Degraded forest LU
Forest LU
Idle grass LU
Oil palm LU
Other LU
Paddy LU
Rubber LU
Vegetables LU
Water body LU

e
1.37

12.34

0.27

e
e

e
e
L0.30

e
e
L1.08

e
e
e
e
e
e
e

e
e
e
e
e
e
2.02
3.09
e
e
e
e

e
e
L1.34
e
L3.11
0.96
L2.08
e
L1.99
L2.24
e
e

e
L21.3
e
e
L19.1
L0.78
L4.52
e
L2.05
L18.9
L1.60

e
e
e

0.76
0.68
1.62

e
e
e
e
0.37

C. Biophysical
CEC sub soil
CEC top soil
Elevation
Slope

0.09

e
e
0.38
2.35
e
e
0.33

0.87

e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e

e
e
1.11
e
0.69
0.72
1.07
e
0.90
0.69

e
e
e

0.51

e
e
e
e

0.22
0.73
e
3.17
3.77
e

D. Soil
Soil class
Soil group
Soil physical unit
Soil series
Soil suitability
Soil terrain

0.71
0.77
2.56
1.83
e
0.91

e
e
e
e
e

e
L0.28
e
e
e
e

e
e
e
e
e
e

E. Climatic
Maximum temp
Relative humidity
Numbers of raining days
Total rain

e
e
e
e

e
0.51
e
1.18

e
e
e
e

Constant
R2
ROC

8.96
0.79
0.99

20.03
0.47
0.98

L10.82
0.81
0.99

0.43

0.02
e
e
1.15
e
0.43

1.01

e
e

0.06

0.21
e

0.46

e
e
e
e
e
e

0.19
e
0.34
0.001

0.65
0.49
e

5.38
0.67
0.95

L7.84
0.69
0.97

e
e
0.17
e
7.43
0.37
0.91

b
Variables

S.E.

Wald

df

Sig.

Exp(B)

R2

ROC

19.93
4.522
2.049
18.933
21.267
1.599
19.103
0.776
0.492
0.646
0.266
1.076
7.836

248.251
0.074
0.069
433.438
574.299
0.038
221.767
0.038
0.008
0.019
0.008
0.015
0.1

0.006
3685.898
875.478
0.002
0.001
1768.516
0.007
425.234
3601.402
1178.153
1080.769
4912.606
6200.896

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

0.936
0
0
0.965
0.97
0
0.931
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0.011
0.129
0
0
0.202
0
0.46
1.635
1.907
1.304
0.341
0

0.688

0.965

Build e up LU
Oil palm LU
Paddy LU
a
Rubber LU
a
Coconut LU
Horticulture LU
a
Forest LU
Idle grass LU
No of raining days
Relative Humidity
Rural work force
Primary GDP
Constant

(continued on next page)

120

A.O. Olaniyi et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 67 (2012) 113e123

Table 6 (continued)
c
Variables

S.E.

Wald

df

Sig.

Exp(B)

R2

ROC

CEC sub soil

Slope
Soil group
Distance to minor road
Primary GDP
Forestry LU
Oil palm LU
Paddy LU
Rubber LU
Coconut LU
Idle grass LU
Constant

0.09
0.514
0.279
12.339
0.3
3.112
2.082
1.985
2.235
1.336
0.961
10.819

0.001
0.004
0.003
0.335
0.005
0.028
0.018
0.033
0.028
0.02
0.021
0.333

7177.532
20,188.63
10,954.623
1360.474
3359.422
12,243.389
13,525.912
3685.072
6177.137
4587.935
2146.29
1053.508

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1.094
1.672
0.756
228,517.68
0.741
0.045
0.125
0.137
0.107
0.263
2.615
0

0.813

0.985

The best model that best describes the relationships between CLU and its driving factors were obtained at the spatial scales of 150 and 250 for 1990 and 2006 land use analysis
respectively. This assertion is evidenced in the ROC being 0.985 and 0.965 for coastal land use analysis (CLUA) in 1990 and 2006 respectively.
Explanation of statistic codes in Table 6aec.
b coefcient of independent variables.
Scales at which the best models were obtained for 1990 and 2006 analysis.
SE is the standard error around the coefcients.
Wald is a measure of the relative importance of each predictor in the model.
df is the degrees of freedom.
Sig (p Value) is a measure of how signicant a (predictor) is ? if less than 0.05 it mean that we would reject the null hypothesis and hence agreed that a predictor is making
a signicant contribution to the model.
Exp (b): is the change in the odds ratio associated with a unit change in the predictor variable.
R2 Nagelkerkes R2 is a measure of relationship between the predictors and the prediction.
ROC (Relative Operation Curve) is a measure of how well the independent variables correctly predict the value of the dependent variable.
a
insignicant.

Land use map of the study area for year 1990 and 2006 were
obtained from the Malaysian Department of Agriculture. The maps
were reclassied to map out the mangrove area, which was used as
proxy for the coastal areas. Discrete data of potential
socioeeconomic and biophysical factors (such as population
density, rural and urban work force, sectoral GDP, temperature)
driving coastal land use change were reformatted to digital maps.
Data of slope, elevation and soil maps were equally collected in
vector format and all data were rasterized at the same spatial
extent and geographical coordinates (Table 5).
Raster data were later converted into ASCII les to make them
suitable for statistical analysis (binary logistic regression). Each
ASCII data representing each variable was converted into a column
format using a short program written in MATLAB language (Luijten
et al., 2006).
The column data representing twenty seven potential spatially
explicit independent variables hypothesized to affect coastal land
use change and one for the dependent (CLUC) were assembled in
SPSS version 18. Variables driving CLUC were selected with a stepwise forward regression using binary logistic regression analysis at
0.05 signicance level (Verburg et al., 2004).
4. Results
Results for the binary logistic regression analysis of the driving
factors of coastal land use in Selangor, Malaysia were presented on
(Table 6aec). Actual factors driving coastal land use were presented
on Table 6b and c. For the year 1990, the driving variables of the
coastal land use change can be broadly categorised into three viz:
agricultural land use (coconut, rubber, paddy, oil palm, forest);
accessibility (distance to the minor road) and biophysical factors
(CEC, slope and soil group).
In 1990, the identied drivers of coastal land use change include
agricultural land use (primary GDP, oil palm, paddy, rubber,
coconut and horticultural crops); accessibility (distance to the
minor road) elevation (slope) and edaphic factor (soil group, CEC
sub soil). While, in the year 2006, important drivers of coastal land
use change include agricultural land use (primary GDP, oil palm,

paddy, rubber, coconut and horticultural crops); urbanization

(build up areas); availability of labour (rural work force) climatic
(numbers of raining days and relative humidity).
From this study, it was observed that some driving factors (agricultural land use) are common the year 1990 and 2006. However,
despite that the agricultural land use drivers are common in the two
times (1990 & 2006), the coefcients of the drivers are higher in the
year 2006 than in the 1990 (Table 6a). This implied that the drivers are
having greater impacts on the coastal land use change in the year
2006 than in 1990. Moreso, there are some variables (distance to the
minor road, slope, soil group, CEC sub soil) that are specic to the year
1990 while (build up, rural work force, horticulture, number of raining
days, relative humidity) are specic to the year 2006.
Urbanization (build e up and horticultural land uses) and
climatic factors (number of raining days and relative humidity)
were additional drivers of costal land use change in the year 2006.
The increase in urbanization and industrialization of Malaysia has
lead to an increase in the demand for horticultural crops and this
has resulted to a greater environmental impact on the coast for
cultivating more horticultural crops.
The increase in the population and urbanization of the coastal
areas in Malaysia has been observed to mimic the growing trends of
increasing population of the coastal land areas around the world (U.S.
Census Bureau, 2009; NOAA, 2004; Timmerman and White, 1997;
EEA, 2006) and this has been related to an increase in global tourism.
For example, Mediterranean coast is expected to receive 350 million
seasonal tourists by the year 2025 (Hinrichsen,1999). The coastal town
of Cancun in Mexico has been transformed as a result of increased
resident population (Burke et al., 2001). These changes in the demographic population of the coastal zones have severely impacted coastal
landscapes by the construction `of the infrastructures needed to
sustain residential, commercial and tourist activities (EEA, 2006).
5. Discussion
Findings from this research indicated that the drivers of coastal
land use were dynamic over 1990 and 2006. For instance, around
1990, this research identied agricultural land use, accessibility and

A.O. Olaniyi et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 67 (2012) 113e123

121

soil factors as primary drivers of coastal land conversion while

agricultural land use, urbanization and climatic factors are important factors of coastal land use change in the year 2006. This nding
agreed with the report of Abdullah and Hezri (2008), who found
that agricultural expansion in Malaysia, between the years
1960e1990 was largely responsible for the landscape dynamics in
the country (Abdullah and Nakaghozi, 2008). Whereas, urbanization and climatic factors are becoming important driving factor of
CLU by the year 2006 (Abdullah and Nakagoshi, 2007; Othman
et al., 2009).
However, during 1990, the availability of expansive idle grassland, which was available for immediate conversion into agricultural use, minimized the pressure on coastal land conversion.
However, the absence this potential agricultural (idle grass) land by
the year 2006 lead to extreme pressures on coastal land for
conversion into other (agricultural and urbanization) uses. The
ndings of this research agreed with the observations of Abdullah
and Nakagoshi (2008) and Othman et al. (2009) who identied
industrialization and urbanization as the major drivers of coastal
land use change in Malaysia.

environmental plans are mainstreamed into development programmes (Ninth Malaysian Plan). However, the achievement of this
objective particularly, in the coastal areas, has been hampered by
the constitutional devolution of powers between the federal and
the state governments (Vincent and Rasali, 2005). This constitutional provision saddles the authority of land administration on the
state governments (McMorrow and Abdul Talip, 2001) thus limiting
the ability of the federal government to enforce environmental
conservation laws on the states.
However, the hope of Malaysian coastal restoration and
conservation is not lost, given the available national constitutional
provisions, but there is a need for environmental education of all
stakeholders in order to harmonize of economic development goals
with environmental conservation objectives (Macintosh and
Ashton, 2002). The achievements of these (Malaysian coastal
restoration and conservation) objectives in the long term, however,
require strong political will (Chong, 2006) by the government at all
level particularly at the states.

6. Conclusion

The authors wish to appreciate the supports received from

various Malaysian government agencies particularly the Departments of Agriculture and Statistics for the datasets supplied. Also
we appreciate the LandeOcean Interaction in the Coastal Zone
International Project Ofce (LOICZ e IPO) based in Germany for
granting full scholarship for the presentation of part of this report
at the Open Science Conference in Yantai, China between 12e15
September, 2011.

This study identied and quantied the driver of CLUC in

Selangor, Malaysia between 1990 and 2006. Findings indicated that
the driving factors of coastal land use change are dynamic over time
ranging from agricultural expansion, accessibility, soil factors,
urbanization and climatic factors. Agricultural land use are the
major coastal land use driver in the 1990 whereas, urbanization and
climatic factor are the drivers of coastal land use change in 2006.
Scientic investigations on how coastal vegetation provides
a measure of shoreline protection have been conducted (French,
2001; Moller, 2006). Coastal forests such as mangroves and saltmarshes have been found to serve as a coastal defence system
against the tidal storms, tsunamis and ocean waves. And the
conversion of these protective forests has increased the vulnerability of coasts to erosion such as in Vietnam (Cat et al., 2006),
Malaysia (Othman, 1994), Indonesia (Tjardana, 1995), Sri Lanka
(Samarayanke, 2003), India (Gopinath and Seralathan, 2005) and
Thailand (Thampanya et al., 2006).
In relation to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, anecdotal feedback and scientic studies indicated that mangroves had saved
lives and resources (NST, 2005). In Malaysia and other countries
mangrove forest has been identied as one of the most important
natural barrier to the tsunami. For thousands of years, mangrove
forests have provided a natural buffer against cyclones and other
storms that often hit the shores of southern India (Kremmer, 2005).
Also in Malaysia, shermen in Penang and parts of Kedah were
saved from death and serious damage to their homes during the
Indian Ocean Tsunamis in 2004. This is because, mangrove swamps,
along the Pulau Betong, Balik Pulau, Batu Kawan and Kuala Sungai
Pinang coastlines in Penang, shielded the shores from the killer
waves, (NST, 2005). According to Othman (1994), nearly 30 percent
of the Malaysian coastline is undergoing erosion.
The implications of the coastal land use change on Malaysia are
far reaching thus putting the country at a crossroad of critical
decision of whether to conserve or convert a coastal area for
economic development. Therefore, the decision to convert a coastal
area cannot just be taken for mere economic reason given the
signicant environmental importance of the coast and its
resources.
The attention given to the environmental protection in Malaysian economic policies i.e., Outline Perspective Plan (OPP2)
(Mahathir, 1991, p 21) is appreciated an example is the Strategic
Environmental Assessment (SEA) has been put in place to ensure

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