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Dairy statistics

An insiders guide 2014

Contents
Introduction

Farm inputs
UK feed prices

UK fertiliser prices

Oil prices

GB land prices

Rent prices in England and Wales

On-farm data
UK dairy farm numbers

10

Producer numbers by region

11

EU dairy producer numbers

12

UK dairy cow numbers

15

UK average herd size

16

EU dairy cow numbers

17

UK average milk yield

18

TB incidences in cattle in Great Britain

19

Profitability of dairy production systems

20

Milk supply
GB and UK wholesale milk deliveries

22

Milk deliveries by nation (Butterfat adjusted)

24

EU-28 wholesale deliveries

25

World production

27

UK milk flow

29

Milk prices and contracts


UK annual average farmgate price

30

UK monthly average farmgate price

31

UK milk producer league table

33

Market indicators

35

EU annual average farmgate price

37

UK wholesale prices

39

EU wholesale prices

40

World wholesale prices

41

Fonterra auction prices

42

Dairy processing and trade


UK milk utilisation

43

EU dairy product production

44

UK mild Cheddar margins

45

UK mature Cheddar margins

47

EU market management measures

49

UK quota position

51

UK dairy trade balance

52

EU dairy balance sheet

54

World dairy trade

55

Consumer
UK average household consumption

57

Liquid milk retail prices

59

Branded vs private label liquid milk retail prices

60

Liquid milk sales

61

Pasteurised milk

62

Organic and filtered milk sales

63

Modified and UHT milk sales

64

Milk purchases by container type

65

Cheese market

66

Cheddar market

68

EU butter consumption

70

EU liquid milk consumption

71

EU cheese consumption

72

Useful information
Conversion tables

73

UK dairy industry organisations

74

Internet sites for sourcing agricultural information

76

About DairyCo

78

Introduction

This guide has been designed to give answers to the most


frequently asked questions about the dairy industry in the UK
and the world.
It provides data stretching from the farmgate to consumers and,
this snapshot of the dairy industry, is increasingly used by the
media and farmer groups to improve bargaining power and
start informed debates.
In addition to the information provided in this guide, please find
details of web addresses on page 76 which explain the areas
discussed in more detail.
We would like to express our gratitude to the many
individuals and organisations who have provided some of the
statistics found in this publication. This support is gratefully
acknowledged.
To receive free, regular market updates emailed to you every
week, call the MI team on 024 7647 8685 or email datum.
info@dairyco.ahdb.org.uk and ask for the free DairyCo Dairy
Market Weekly.
Further information on these topics can be found at
dairyco.org.uk/market-information
Market Intelligence Team
DairyCo

Farm inputs

UK feed prices

Global grain prices fell in 2013 on increased grain supplies,


however, the smallest UK wheat harvest since 2001 meant UK
wheat prices declined by a lesser extent.
The price of feed wheat fell by 6/tonne (3.1%) and the price
of intensive energy dairy feed rose 23/tonne (8.8%).
Average price (/tonne)
2008

2012

2013

Feed Wheat

143

193

187

Soyameal Argentine

262

351

386

Intensive Energy Dairy


Rations

206

261

284

Note: Prices are from different outlets: Feed Wheat (Delivered), Soyameal (Ex-Store), Intensive
Energy Dairy Rations (On Farm).
Source: FARM BRIEF, AHDB/HGCA.
This data is protected under the various copyright acts. No reproduction in whole or in part is
permitted by any means whether printed, photocopied, sound or visual broadcast without the
express permission of FARM BRIEF.

UK feed prices
Feed Wheat

Soyameal
(Argentine)

Intensive Energy
Dairy Rations

450
400
350

/tonne

300
250
200
150
100
50
0

08

09

10

11

12

13

Source: FARM BRIEF, AHDB/HGCA.

Farm inputs

UK fertiliser prices

Average prices for AN (Ammonium Nitrate) fell by 9.5%


between 2012 and 2013 to 277/tonne, due to lower global
Urea prices.
Average price (/tonne)
2008

2012

2013

20.10.10 Blended
bags

379

316

293

Granular Urea (bags)

353

356

308

AN (UK - Bags)

337

306

277

Source: FARM BRIEF.

UK fertiliser prices
20.10.10
Blended bags

Granular Urea
(bags)

AN
(UK - bags)

10

12

400
380
360

/tonne

340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200

08

09

11

13

Note: Urea data prior to Jan 2012 is based upon Prilled Urea as Granular prices were not
available.
Source: FARM BRIEF.
This data is protected under the various copyright acts. No reproduction in whole or in part is
permitted by any means whether printed, photocopied, sound or visual broadcast without the
express permission of FARM BRIEF.

Farm inputs

Oil prices

Oil prices fell in 2013 on the previous year to an average price


of $105.87/barrel. However, this price was still up 276.8% on
the average price a decade ago.
The average price in 2013 of 67.74/barrel was 1.9% lower
than 2012.
Average oil price
2003

2012

2013

US$/barrel

28.10

109.45

105.87

/barrel

17.17

69.07

67.74

Source: OPEC. Prices have been converted from US$/barrel using average annual exchange rates.

Oil prices
80

/barrel

70
60
50
40
30
20
10

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Source: OPEC. Prices have been converted from US$/barrel using average annual exchange rates.

Farm inputs

GB land prices

The average price for pasture land in England and Wales


stood at 17,191/hectare in H2-2013, an increase of 661
(4.0%) from H1-2013. The average price for arable land was
21,129/hectare in H2-2013, up 883 on H1-2013 (4.4%).
The highest pasture land price in H2-2013 was 21,313/
hectare in the North West, unchanged on H1-2013. The lowest
price was in Scotland at 6,178/hectare, down 9.1% on H12013 but unchanged on H2-2012.
The highest price for arable land was 22,239/hectare, which
was recorded in both the North West and South East in H22013. The lowest price was in Scotland at 12,355/hectare,
down 18.4% on H1-2013, unchanged on H2-2012.
Land prices for dairy farms
(pasture land) in England and Wales

H2-2013

/ac

/ha

6,957

17,191

Source: RICS Farmland Market Survey.

Land prices England and Wales


per acre

per hectacre

18,000
16,000
14,000

12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0

08

09

10

11

Note: The above graph shows annual average prices for pasture land.
Source: AHDB/DairyCo, RICS Farmland Market Survey.

12

13

Farm inputs

Rent prices in England


and Wales
Rent levels across England and Wales have been quite
variable between H2-2012 and H2-2013. The average rent
for pasture land in England and Wales (ATA 95) rose by 4/
hectare (1.9%) from 241/hectare in H2-2012 to 245/hectare
in H2-2013. There was, however, a 24/hectare (9.0%) halfyearly decrease between H1-2013 and H2-2013.
The average rent price for arable land in England and Wales
(ATA 95) rose by 14/hectare (3.9%) to 387/hectare between
H2-2012 and H2-2013. Land rented under AHA 86 also
showed a 3.9% increase to 201/hectare.
Land rent levels for dairy farms
(pasture land) in England and Wales
AHA 86

H2-2013

ATA 95

/ac

/ha

/ac

/ha

57

141

99

245

Note: AHA 86 The Agricultural Holdings Act 1986, ATA 95 The Agricultural Tenancies Act 1995.
Source: RICS Farmland Market Survey.

Land rent levels England and Wales


AHA 86

ATA 95

300

/ha

250
200
150
100
50
0

08

09

10

11

12

13

Note: The above graph shows annual average rental prices for pasture land.
AHA 86 The Agricultural Holdings Act 1986. ATA 95 The Agricultural Tenancies Act 1995.
Source: AHDB/DairyCo, RICS Farmland Market Survey.

On-farm data

UK dairy farm numbers

In June 2013, there were 13,265 dairy farms in the UK 8.8%


(1,284) less than in 2012.
In the past ten years, the number of dairy farms in England and
Wales has fallen by 37.7%. In Scotland, the number of dairy
farms has fallen by 43.6% and in Northern Ireland by 39.6%.
June census
2003

2012

2013

England & Wales

16,977

10,724

10,581

Scotland

1,590

1,163

896

Northern Ireland

4,425

2,662*

2,684*

UK

22,992

14,549

13,265

Note: England and Wales producer number figure for 2012 is a May figure as June data was not
available.
For England and Wales, all premises where milk is produced are referred to as Production
Holdings; this includes holdings with sheep, goats and buffalo.
*Change in methodology in Northern Ireland in 2012 with data revised back to 2006.
Figures for Scotland are for dairy type holdings where dairy farming contributes more than twothirds of the holding standard gross margins up until 2012. As of June 2013, Scotland has changed
its typology which is now based on 11 farm types and uses the cattle tracing scheme resulting in a
significant fall in the number of holdings compared with 2012.

Source: DHI, DARD, SEERAD.

UK dairy farm numbers


25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0

03

04

Source: DHI, DARD, SEERAD.

10

05 06* 07* 08* 09* 10* 11* 12* 13*

On-farm data

Producer numbers by region

1,163

2013*

896

2003

3,217
2,141
2,120

2003

4,524

2012

2,850

2013

2,780

2003

4,772

2012

3,209

2013

3,182

2003

1,144

2012

620

2013

616

2003

2,909

2012

1,904

2013

1,895

Wales

2012
2013

Scotland

North

Midlands
Wales

1,590

2012

Midlands

2003

South East South West

North

Scotland

Figures are for May unless otherwise stated.

South
East
South West

Note: September figures were used for 2003. Therefore figures do not tally exactly with the farm
numbers table on page 10.
*Figures for Scotland are for dairy type holdings where dairy farming contributes more than twothirds of the holding standard gross margins up until 2012. As of June 2013, Scotland has changed
its typology which is now based on 11 farm types and uses the cattle tracing scheme resulting in a
significant fall in the number of holdings compared with 2012.
Source: DHI, DARD, SEERAD.

11

On-farm data

EU dairy producer numbers

In 2012/13, there were 922,000 dairy farmers in the 27 EU


member states.
The population of dairy farmers in the EU-15 fell by 20.5%
(91,300 farmers) between 2007/08 and 2012/13
approximately 50 farmers per day left the industry.
EU dairy producer numbers
Thousand dairy farmers

12

07/08

10/11

11/12

12/13

Austria

58.0

49.9

48.8

46.5

Belgium

13.0

10.7

10.3

9.8

Denmark

5.0

4.2

4.0

3.8

Finland

14.0

11.7

10.9

10.2

France

99.0

83.8

80.3

77.2

Germany

99.0

88.7

83.9

80.8

Greece

6.0

4.3

3.9

3.7

Ireland

21.0

19.0

19.2

18.5

Italy

46.0

40.4

38.8

37.4

Luxembourg

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.8

Netherlands

21.0

19.4

18.9

18.5

Portugal

11.0

8.1

7.5

7.0

Spain

26.0

21.9

20.7

19.6

Sweden

8.0

6.1

5.8

5.4

UK

18.0

15.5

15.0

14.5

EU-15

445.1

384.3

368.6

353.8

Cyprus

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.2

Czech Republic

3.0

2.5

2.4

2.3

Estonia

1.0

1.1

1.0

0.9

Thousand dairy farmers


07/08

10/11

11/12

12/13

Hungary

6.0

5.8

4.7

4.3

Latvia

20.0

12.2

11.6

11.2

Lithuania

69.0

46.6

44.4

41.3

Malta

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

Poland

232.0

173.3

162.1

153.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.8

Slovakia
Slovenia

10.0

8.9

8.5

8.2

EU-25

789.0

635.7

604.3

576.1

Bulgaria

109.0

18.1

13.8

10.8

Romania

663.0

385.0

368.0

335.0

1,561.1

1,038.8

986.2

922.0

EU-27
Source: Eurostat.

EU-15 dairy producer numbers


2007/08

2012/13

Thousand dairy producers

120
100
80
60
40
20

UK

Au
s
Be tria
lg
De ium
nm
a
Fi rk
nl
an
Fr d
G anc
er e
m
a
G ny
re
e
Ire ce
la
nd
Lu
xe Ita
m
N bo ly
et
he urg
rla
Po nds
rtu
ga
Sp l
Sw ain
ed
en

Source: Eurostat.

13

Change in number of dairy producers per country between


2011/12 and 2012/13 (%)
Malta
Cyprus
Netherlands
Slovakia
Czech Republic
UK
Latvia
Ireland
Italy
Germany
France
Luxembourg
Slovenia
Belgium
Denmark
Austria
Spain
Poland
Finland
Greece
Sweden
Estonia
Lithuania
Portugal
Hungary
Romania
Bulgaria
-25%
Source: Eurostat.

14

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

On-farm data

UK dairy cow numbers

While the number of cows in the UK fell slightly, down 1.7%


in 2013 on 2012, the distribution of cows saw larger losses in
both England and Northern Ireland.
Thousand head
2003

2012

2013

1,435

1,121

1,113

Wales

268

224

223

Scotland

198

163

167

England

Northern Ireland
UK

290

285

280

2,191

1,812

1,782

Note: Dairy cow numbers refer to dairy female cattle aged two years or more with offspring.
England and Wales figures have been sourced through CTS (cattle tracing system), Northern Ireland
data has been sourced through APHIS, Scotland use survey data. CTS/APHIS uses breed of cattle to
identify purpose. Therefore, cannot be used for a direct comparison with previous years.
Source: Defra, DARD, Welsh Government, SEERAD.

UK dairy cow numbers


2003

2012

2013

2,250
2,000

Thousand head

1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
0

England

Wales

Scotland

Northern
Ireland

UK

Source: Defra, DARD, Welsh Government, SEERAD.

15

On-farm data

UK average herd size

The percentage reduction in cow numbers was less than the


reduction in herds. Therefore, average herd size continued to
increase between 2012 and 2013.
June census
2003

2012

2013

102

127

128

Wales

91

118

118

Scotland

125

157

185

Northern Ireland

66

107

104

UK

95

125

126

England

Note: Averages have been worked out according to figures found in the dairy farm numbers and
dairy cow numbers tables. Scotland 2013 figures affected by change in holdings methodology.
Source: Defra, DARD, DHI, SEERAD, Welsh Government.

UK average herd size in 2013


200
180
Cow head/herd

160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

England

Wales

Scotland

Source: Defra, DARD, DHI, SEERAD, Welsh Government.

16

Northern
Ireland

UK

On-farm data

EU dairy cow numbers

The EU-15 had 76.9% of dairy cows in the EU-28 in 2013 with
the UK herd representing 7.7% of the total EU-28 dairy cow
population.
Thousand head
2003

2012*

2013*

UK

2,207

1,786

1,817

EU-15

19,217

17,703

18,050

EU-25

23,923

21,555

21,832

EU-27

24,285

23,012

23,314

EU-28

n/a

23,193

23,482

UK% (EU-28)

n/a

7.7%

7.7%

*Provisional.
Note: Eurostat figures for the UK are different from the UK dairy cow numbers on page 15 since
figures are collated from different sources.
Croatia data unavailable for 2003.
Source: Eurostat.

17

On-farm data

UK average milk yield

In 2013, the UK annual average milk yield rose by 93 litres/


cow. The 2013 yield of 7,535/cow/annum was 1.2% higher
than in 2012 and 13.8% more than in 2003.
Litres/cow/annum
2003

6,621

2010

7,273

2011

7,528

2012

7,442

2013*

7,535

*Provisional.
Source: Defra.

UK average milk yield

Litres/cow/annum

8,000

7,500

7,000

6,500
*Provisional.
Source: Defra.

18

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13*

On-farm data

TB incidences in cattle
in Great Britain
The number of cattle being slaughtered due to TB decreased by
13.6% (5,115) between 2012 and 2013.
Number of cattle slaughtered for TB in GB
2003

23,972

2011

34,238

2012*

37,734

2013*

32,619

*Provisional.
Note: Statistics above are for all cattle slaughtered due to TB not just dairy cattle.
Source: Defra.

Number of cattle slaughtered for TB in GB


40,000
35,000

Number of cattle

30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12* 13*

*Provisional.
Source: Defra.

19

On-farm data

Profitability of dairy
production systems
Milkbench+ analysis has, again, identified and analysed three
enterprise types:
Cows at grass. Predominantly grass-based and operating
at lower yield levels
Composite. Maximum use of family labour and a mixed
approach to feeding and housing
High-output cows. Generally housed for more of the year
with more intensive use of major inputs.
DairyCos Milkbench+ Evidence Report 2014 highlights the
following findings:
Due to difficult weather conditions and increasing feed
prices, the average net margin in 2012/13 was negative
and 2.3 pence per litre (ppl) less than in 2011/12 at -0.9
(ppl)
Despite this, the top 25% of producers in all three
enterprise types achieved a positive net margin, with the
top 25% in Cows at grass earning the highest net margin
overall
The top 25% of dairy farms achieved a slightly higher
milk yield, but, importantly, used significantly fewer
resources at cheaper prices, which resulted in lower
production costs and a higher net margin
The difference in performance is much larger between
the top 25% and bottom 25% of producers within each
enterprise type, than it is across farm types
Four drivers explained a minimum of 60% of the
difference in cost of production between the top and
bottom 25% in each of the three enterprise types.
These drivers are:

20

Feed cost
Labour cost
Power and machinery cost
Depreciation.
These drivers are similar to previous year results apart
from the inclusion of depreciation instead of herd
replacement cost.
According to the international dairy network IFCN, UK dairy
farms have, on average, larger herds and slightly lower
milk yields, together with lower production costs and higher
profitability than the average for Western Europe.

Cows at
grass

Composite

Highoutput
cows

Number of farms

120

130

72

Average herd size


(cows)

168

185

266

Total non-forage feed


(kg dry matter per cow
per year)

1,326

2,745

2,853

Yield (litres per cow


per year)

5,890

7,885

8,619

Labour (hours/cow/
year)

36

37

34

Revenue (pence per


litre)

31.5

31.0

31.4

Total variable costs


(pence per litre)

11.4

14.7

14.8

Total fixed costs (pence


per litre)

17.4

14.1

14.0

Total cost of production


(pence per litre)

32.3

32.4

31.9

Net margin (pence per


litre)

-0.8

-1.4

-0.5

Net margin ( per


hectare per year)

-12

-89

-33

Note: Milkbench+ is an Internet-based benchmarking service that allows British dairy farmers to
compare how their enterprise is performing against other dairy farms.
Source: AHDB/DairyCo, analysis of the Milkbench+ 2012/13 sample containing 322 dairy
enterprises.

21

Milk supply

GB and UK wholesale
milk deliveries
In 2013/14, UK milk production was 5.4% (705 million litres)
higher than the previous milk year.
GB milk production rose by 5.3% in 2013/14 versus the
previous milk year.
Northern Ireland milk production also increased in 2013/14
but by a slightly higher percentage of 6.1% (118 million litres).
The strength in production during 2013/14 was encouraged
by favourable weather conditions throughout the year and
positivity in the industry, helped by stronger farmgate milk
prices.
Million litres
GB

UK

03/04 12/13 13/14 03/04 12/13 13/14


Apr

1,098

1,015

932

1,204

1,112

May

1,171

1,048

1,034

1,367

1,252

1,234

Jun

1,087

997

987

1,266

1,186

1,177

Jul

1,061

944

963

1,232

1,116

1,144

Aug

1,028

910

954

1,181

1,063

1,116

Sep

969

864

919

1,101

997

1,063

Oct

989

865

941

1,116

994

1,088

Nov

954

843

920

1,071

974

1,067

Dec

1,002

894

979

1,127

1,039

1,144

Jan

998

897

1,004

1,127

1,059

1,179

Feb

926

824

931

1,054

978

1,099

Mar

1,005

934

1,061

1,152

1,112

1,257

Total

12,288

11,036

12,974

13,680

Note: Figures are subject to rounding.


Source: RPA, DARD.

22

1,271

11,624 14,063

UK wholesale milk deliveries


2003/04

2012/13

2013/14

1,400
1,350
1,300

Million litres

1,250
1,200
1,150
1,100
1,050
1,000
950
900

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Source: RPA.

UK wholesale deliveries by milk years (April-March)


14,500

Million litres

14,000

13,500

13,000

20
0

3/
20 04
04
/
20 05
05
/
20 06
06
/
20 07
07
/
20 08
08
/
20 09
09
/
20 10
10
/
20 11
11
/
20 12
12
/
20 13
13
/1
4

12,500

Source: RPA.

23

Milk supply

Milk deliveries by nation


(Butterfat adjusted)
Between the 2011/12 and 2012/13 milk years, butterfatadjusted milk deliveries fell by an average of 3.5% across all
nations in the UK.
It decreased by 4.7% in England, 3.4% in Wales and 0.7% in
Northern Ireland but increased marginally in Scotland.
Million litres
2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

England

8,639

8,640

8,234

Wales

1,537

1,595

1,540

Scotland

1,268

1,279

1,280

Northern Ireland
UK

1,921

2,004

1,990

13,365

13,518

13,044

Note: Figures are subject to rounding.


Source: RPA.

Butterfat-adjusted milk deliveries by nation


2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

10,000

Million litres

8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0

Source: RPA.

24

England

Wales

Scotland

Northern
Ireland

Milk supply

EU-28 wholesale deliveries

Milk deliveries in the EU-28 were 2.8% higher in 2013/14


than in 2012/13. Eighteen countries increased their production
including Germany, France, UK, Netherlands and Poland.
The UK, which saw its milk deliveries increase 5.4% between
2012/13 and 2013/14, remains the third largest producing
country in the EU.
EU-28 wholesale deliveries
Thousand tonnes

Germany

2003/04

2012/13

2013/14

27,270

29,706

30,631

France

23,122

24,189

24,677

UK

14,481

13,359

14,086

Netherlands

10,590

11,671

12,344

n/a

9,817

10,092

9,963

9,791

9,721

Poland
Italy
Spain

5,958

5,948

6,008

Ireland

5,288

5,353

5,581

Denmark

4,507

4,914

5,074

Belgium

2,820

3,120

3,534

Austria

2,658

2,947

2,972

Sweden

3,226

2,850

2,890

632

2,431

2,365

Finland

2,411

2,246

2,309

Portugal

1,842

1,825

1,791

Czech Republic

Hungary

1,661

1,398

1,370

Lithuania

1,039

1,356

1,357

Romania

180

870

904

25

Thousand tonnes
2003/04

2012/13

2013/14

Slovakia

961

847

826

Latvia

438

722

755

Estonia

494

673

721

Greece

644

669

643

Slovenia

505

532

518

Bulgaria

n/a

499

494

Luxembourg

258

277

290

Cyprus

149

153

159

Croatia

549

573

506

EU-15

115,038

118,863

122,551

EU-27

121,097

138,161

142,111

EU-28

n/a

138,734

142,617

Note: Figures do not include Malta, however, it is estimated they only produce around 3,000 6,000 tonnes per month which would not substantially affect any percentage changes.
*Croatia joined the EU on 1 July 2013, historic data was available and has been included for
reference.
Source: Eurostat.

26

Milk supply

World production

World milk production continues to increase and reached 603


billion litres in 2012.
Although the EU-27 accounted for nearly a quarter (24.2%) of
the total world milk supply in 2012, this is down from 29.4% a
decade earlier.
The UK is currently the tenth largest milk producer in the world.
Billion litres
2002

2011

2012

World

495.8

589.9

602.5

EU-15

118.8

118.7

118.8

EU-25

140.2

139.9

140.6

EU-27

146.0

145.4

145.9

UK

14.4

13.4

13.5

EU-27%

29.4

24.7

24.2

2.9

2.3

2.2

UK%
Source: Faostat FAO.

27

World milk production


650

Billion litres

600

550

500

450

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Source: Faostat FAO.

Top 10 milk-producing countries in 2012


100

Billion litres

80
60
40
20

Ru
Source: Faostat FAO.

28

US

ce
G
ss
er
ia
m
n
an
Fe
de y
ra
tio
n
Br
az
il
Ch
in
a
In
di
a

Fr
an

an
al

ke

Ze

N
ew

Tu
r

UK

Milk supply

UK milk flow

The UK milk market was approximately 13.6 billion litres in


2013. Milk for liquid consumption accounted for 6.9 billion
litres.
UK milk flow 2013 (million litres) (a)
Dairy herd
production (b)
13,540
Fed to stock/
waste on-farm
115

Total cows milk


production (b)
13,547
Beef herd
production
7

13,431

Raw milk
imports
132

Available for human


consumption (c)
13,563

Raw milk
exports
473

Direct sales
116

Consumed
on farm (c)
22

Delivered
to dairies
12,952

71

45

22

For liquid
consumption (c)
6,885

Used in
manufacture
6,223

6,791

6,179

Dairy wastage
and stock change
-17

(a) Figures are provisional.


(b) Excludes any suckled milk.
(c) Includes 7 million litres of milk produced by the beef herd.
Note: Totals may not agree due to rounding.
Source: Defra.

29

Milk prices and contracts

UK annual average
farmgate price
Average UK farmgate prices increased 12.7% compared to
2012, due to increasing wholesale prices and competition
between buyers for milk. Farmgate prices reached record highs
in 2013 as the UK recovered from the loss of production in 2012.

Average price ppl

Year-on-year price
difference ppl

2003

18.03

0.92

2004

18.47

0.44

2005

18.47

0.00

2006

17.95

-0.51

2007

20.67

2.72

2008

25.93

5.25

2009

23.73

-2.20

2010

24.67

0.94

2011

27.36

2.69

2012

28.08

0.72

2013

31.64

3.56

Source: Defra (Including bonus payments).

UK average farmgate price


Average farmgate prices

Year-on-year price diff.

35
30
25

ppl

20
15
10
5
0
-5

30

03

04

05

06

Source: Defra (including bonus payments).

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

Milk prices and contracts

UK monthly average
farmgate price
UK farmgate prices were consistently over 30ppl for 2013/14,
apart from May due to seasonal reductions. Increasing
wholesale prices and competition for milk between buyers
drove prices to record levels over the year.
Average price ppl
2003/04

2012/13

2013/14

Apr

16.85

27.84

30.11

May

16.00

26.95

29.98

Jun

16.52

26.13

30.72

Jul

18.22

26.43

31.38

Aug

18.95

26.69

32.08

Sep

19.25

27.62

32.98

Oct

19.60

29.12

33.62

Nov

19.83

30.05

34.55

Dec

19.16

30.14

34.25

Jan

18.77

30.05

33.85

Feb

18.69

30.09

33.93

Mar

18.48

30.09

33.68

Average

18.36

28.43

32.59

Note: The annual average price given is unweighted and, therefore, not comparable with the annual
Defra price.
Source: Defra (including bonus payments).

31

Monthly average farmgate prices


2003/4

2012/13

2013/14

Average price ppl

35
30
25
20
15

Apr May Jun

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Source: Defra (including bonus payments).

32

Milk prices and contracts

UK milk producer league table

Prices are based on the DairyCo Standard Litre. This is


based on a 1 million litre/year producer on Every Other Day
Collection with monthly variations for constituents, volume and
hygiene, based on UK averages over the past three milk years.
2013/14 annual average price (ppl) by company
(from our DairyCo standard litre)
34.21

Dairy Crest M&S Profile1

34.12

Dairy Crest M&S Variable

Mller Wiseman Dairies Tesco

33.04

United Dairy Farmers (NI)

32.96

First Milk Tesco

32.90

Parkham Farms

32.85

Mller Wiseman Dairies Sainsburys

32.82

Dairy Crest Sainsburys Profile1

32.73

Dairy Crest Sainsburys Variable1

32.53

Arla Foods Tesco

32.51

Arla Milk Link London Liquid

32.40

Arla Foods Sainsburys

32.40

Arla Milk Link Northern Manufacturing Seasonal

32.32

Paynes Dairies

32.25

Mller Wiseman Dairies Cooperative

32.23

Arla Milk Link Manufacturing Seasonal

32.22

Arla Milk Link Manufacturing A&B

32.01

Lactalis/Caledonian Cheese Profile

31.96

Arla Milk Link Northern Manufacturing A&B

31.89

Dairy Crest cheese Davidstow Profile

31.81

Grahams Dairies

31.73

33

2013/14 annual average price (ppl) by company


(from our DairyCo standard litre)
Dairy Crest cheese Davidstow Variable

31.72

Wensleydale

31.65

Barber A.J & R.G

31.58

Lactalis/Caledonian Cheese Seasonal

31.51

Mller Wiseman Dairies Milk Partnership

31.47

Pattemores Dairy Ingredients

31.47

Wyke Farms

31.44

Meadow Foods Compositional Level

31.44

Meadow Foods Compositional Seasonal

31.38

Lactalis/Caledonian Cheese

31.32

South Caernarfon Creameries

31.25

Dairy Crest Liquid Profile

31.20

Dairy Crest Liquid Variable

31.18

Glanbia Llangefni

31.08

First Milk Liquid A

30.84

First Milk Liquid B (Manufacturing pool)

30.60

Arla Milk Link Llandyrnog Direct Seasonal

30.55

First Milk Highlands & Islands Area

30.55

First Milk Compositional

30.48

Arla Milk Link Llandyrnog Direct A&B

30.35

1 Milk prices listed above will vary according to the amount of milk that is required by each retailer;
additional milk will be paid for at Dairy Crests standard liquid milk contract price; the milk price
above assumes that all litres produced are sold into the dedicated milk pools.
2 Farmers signed up with the Promar costings survey get an additional 0.50ppl.
Note: Prices listed above are exclusive of: Capital Retentions, Administration Charges, Farmer
Group Subscriptions and VAT but are inclusive of: DairyCo Levy and Seasonality.
Only contracts live for the full duration of the 2013/14 milk year are included.
Source: AHDB/DairyCo.

34

Milk prices and contracts

Market indicators

In June 2013, AHDB/DairyCo began the process of conducting


a review of the market indicators Actual Milk Price Equivalent
(AMPE) and Milk for Cheese Value Equivalent (MCVE). AHDB/
DairyCo decided to instigate an independent review of the
method of calculation to establish how UK processor costs and
yields have changed, having noted some processing costs
(most notably energy) have increased in recent years. The
results of this change were published in April 2014, alongside
the new AMPE 2014 and MCVE 2014 indicators. The full
report of the review can be found on the DairyCo website
dairyco.org.uk
Strong increases in UK wholesale prices for the majority of
the year allowed for AMPE 2014, MCVE 2014 and cream
income to increase, on average up 37.2%, 17.5% and 32.0%,
respectively, for 2013/14. Weakening markets at the start of
2014 were reflected in the market indicators as levels began to
drop sharply.
Average price (ppl)
3-yr average

2012/13

2013/14

AMPE 2014

29.76

28.06

38.49

MCVE 2014

30.82

31.28

36.75

7.84

6.96

9.19

Cream income
Source: AHDB/DairyCo.

35

Market indicators
AMPE 2014

MCVE 2014

Cream income

45

12

40
10

30

ppl

ppl

35

25
6
20
4

Ap
r
Ju 10
l
O 10
ct
Ja 10
n
Ap 11
r
Ju 11
l
O 11
ct
Ja 11
n
Ap 12
r
Ju 12
l
O 12
ct
Ja 12
n
Ap 13
r
Ju 13
l
O 13
ct
Ja 13
n
1
4

15

The cream income to a liquid processor indicator measures trends in potential returns arising from
the sale of surplus cream and not an absolute value. Actual returns will vary according to butterfat
levels, exact prices for bulk cream and the fat content of actual milk production.
AMPE (Actual Milk Price Equivalent) and MCVE (Milk for Cheese Value Equivalent) provide a
benchmark for the value returned from milk (at the factory gate) when used for a range of dairy
products butter and powders for AMPE and mild Cheddar and other by-products for MCVE.
Source: AHDB/DairyCo.

36

Milk prices and contracts

EU annual average
farmgate price
With commodity markets strengthening in 2013 compared with
2012, the EU-27 average price increased by 4.60ppl (16.9%)
to 31.91ppl.
At 31.70ppl, UK dairy producers received 0.21ppl less than the
EU-27 weighted average price.
ppl
2003

2012

2013

Austria

21.18

28.29

32.88

Belgium

19.42

25.24

32.52

Denmark

23.25

28.45

33.75

Finland

25.80

37.56

40.04

France

21.63

26.70

30.29

Germany

21.15

26.78

32.73

Greece

24.52

37.67

38.83

Ireland

19.63

27.00

33.47

Italy

25.05

30.90

33.94

Luxembourg

23.29

26.06

31.93

Netherlands

22.47

28.26

34.48

Portugal

23.43

25.57

29.32

Spain

20.43

25.82

29.99

Sweden

24.08

29.88

34.61

UK

18.13

28.12

31.70

Weighted EU-15 average

21.52

27.79

32.50

Cyprus

26.19

44.02

50.28

Czech Republic

16.97

24.86

28.56

Estonia

13.20

25.13

29.43

Hungary

19.51

24.94

28.27

37

ppl

Latvia

2003

2012

2013

9.63

23.12

26.71

Lithuania

9.92

22.20

27.67

Malta

29.41

40.72

45.79

Poland

11.30

24.03

27.74

Slovenia

20.97

25.20

28.23

Slovakia

15.34

24.65

28.58

Bulgaria

n/a

25.48

29.43

Romania

n/a

22.84

26.21

Weighted EU-27
average

n/a

27.31

31.91

Note: Prices have been converted into ppl using annual average exchange rates.
UK prices are calculated on a different basis to the Defra farmgate price.
Croatia not included due to insufficient data.
Source: DG AGRI-C4, AHDB/DairyCo.

Average EU-15 farmgate prices in 2013 (ppl)


42
40
38

ppl

36
34
32
30

Fi
nl
an
G d
re
S ec
N we e
et d
he en
rla
nd
s
I
De tal
nm y
a
Ire rk
la
Au nd
G stri
er a
m
a
Be ny
Lu lg
xe iu
m m
bo
ur
g
UK
Fr
an
c
Sp e
Po ain
rtu
ga
l

28

Source: DG AGRI-C4, AHDB/DairyCo.

38

Milk prices and contracts

UK wholesale prices

Although domestic production recovered well in 2013,


manufacturers needed to rebuild depleted stocks. With limited
supplies, competition between buyers drove prices higher
through the year. UK wholesale prices reached record, or near
record, prices during the summer of 2013.
/tonne
Butter
(Unsalted)

Cream

SMP*

Mild
Cheddar

2003

2,044

974

1,407

1,985

2012

2,531

1,157

2,017

2,906

2013

3,375

1,588

2,667

3,252

*Skimmed Milk Powder.


Source: AHDB/DairyCo, DIN.

UK average wholesale prices


Butter
(unsalted)

Bulk
Cream

SMP*

Mild
Cheddar

4,000
3,500

/tonne

3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

*Skimmed Milk Powder.


Source: AHDB/DairyCo, DIN.

39

Milk prices and contracts

EU wholesale prices

Average prices rose significantly in 2013 compared to the


previous year as stocks failed to recover from low levels of
production in 2012. While global milk production recovered
during the year, strong growth in demand added further
upward pressure on wholesale prices.
/tonne*

Dutch
butter

German
SMP**
(food
quality)

Dutch
whey
powder

German
emmental

2003

2,110

1,405

243

2012

2,432

1,931

745

3,223

2013

3,363

2,638

822

3,579

*Monthly prices have been converted from /tonne using average monthly exchange rates and then
averaged out for the year.
**Skimmed Milk Powder.
Source: Dutch Dairy Board/DIN.

EU wholesale prices
Dutch
butter

German SMP
(food quality)

Dutch
whey powder

German
emmental

4,000
3,500

/tonne

3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Source: Dutch Dairy Board/DIN.

40

Milk prices and contracts

World wholesale prices

Milk production was badly affected by adverse weather during


2012 in most major exporting countries. This continued through
into the beginning of 2013, when production began to recover.
Despite this, supplies were not able to keep up with demand,
especially from China, placing further upward pressure on
prices.
/tonne*
Butter

SMP**

WMP***

Cheddar
cheese

2003

1,060

1,073

1,228

1,453

2012

2,259

1,923

2,180

2,393

2013

2,689

2,612

2,870

2,654

*Monthly prices have been converted from US$/tonne using average monthly exchange rates and
then averaged out for the year.
**Skimmed Milk Powder.
***Whole Milk Powder.
Source: USDA.

World average wholesale prices


Butter

SMP

WMP

Cheddar cheese

3,500

/tonne

3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Source: USDA.

41

Milk prices and contracts

Fonterra auction prices

The Fonterra auction takes place fortnightly on an online


trading platform called GlobalDairyTrade.
Despite an increase in global milk production during the year,
dairy commodity prices rose through most of 2013/14 as
exportable supplies were not sufficient to meet demand. Prices
spiked early in 2013 as concern over global milk production
hit the market and buyers competed to secure supplies. For the
majority of 2013, prices were maintained at high levels before
supplies recovered sufficiently by the start of 2014 to reduce
pressure on the market.
/tonne
2012/13

2013/14

WMP*

2,027

3,105

AMF**

2,026

3,158

SMP***

2,032

2,873

*Whole Milk Powder.


**Anhydrous Milk Fat.
***Skimmed Milk Powder.
Weighted annual average prices which have been converted from $/tonne using average
exchange rates.
Source: GlobalDairyTrade, AHDB/DairyCo.

Fonterra auction prices


AMF

SMP

WMP

4,500
4,000

ppl

3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000

1
c

De

13

Au

Ap

Au

De

12

Ap

Source: GlobalDairyTrade, AHDB/DairyCo.

42

Au

De

11

Ap

c
De

Au

Ap

10

1,500

Dairy processing and trade

UK milk utilisation

In 2013/14, just under half (49.6%) of raw milk produced


in the UK went into the production of liquid milk and 26.2%
into cheese compared with 23.1% in 2003/04. The share of
condensed milk and powders fell from 17.7% to 11.1% over this
ten-year period.
Volume (million litres)
2003/4

2012/13

2013/14*

Total milk available

14,339

13,220

13,935

Milk used for liquid

6,761

6,756

6,914

Cheese

3,315

3,618

3,654

Condensed milk and


powders

2,533

1,142

1,546

Exports

405

466

486

Yogurt

226

272

273

Cream

323

263

295

Butter

261

289

304

Other

380

343

429

Stock change and


wastage

134

70

34

*Provisional.
Note: Total milk available = UK milk production + imports.
Milk utilisation includes exports.
Source: Defra.

43

Dairy processing and trade

EU dairy product production

In 2013/14, liquid milk made up 57% of the EU-28 dairy


product production, with cheese and fermented products
making up 16% and 14% each, respectively.
Dairy product production is not to be confused with milk
utilisation. It refers to how many tonnes of each end product
have been produced. While milk utilisation shows how much
milk has been used for the manufacture and production of each
product.
Thousand tonnes 2013/14
Drinking milk
Fermented products

7,848

Cheese

8,548

Butter

1,936

SMP*

1,141

WMP**

616

Condensed milk

1,071

Cream

2,611

Note: Cheese data excludes processed cheese.


Data subject to retrospective amendment.
*Skimmed Milk Powder.
**Whole Milk Powder.
Source: Eurostat.

44

31,154

Dairy processing and trade

UK mild Cheddar margins

Processor gross margins on mild Cheddar increased by 0.5ppl


between 2012/13 and 2013/14 and are 0.2ppl lower than in
2003/04.
Retail gross margins on mild Cheddar decreased by 4.8ppl
between 2012/13 and 2013/14 and have increased by
12.4ppl in the past 10 years.
Margins (M) and prices for mild Cheddar
2003/04
ppl
Farmgate
price

18.3

Processor
gross margin

3.3

Processor
selling price

21.7

Retail gross
margin

12.5

Retail price

34.1

2012/13
ppl

28.4
15%

2.6

29.7
60.7

ppl

32.6
9%

31.1
37%

2013/14

3.1

9%

35.7
49%

24.9

41%

60.5

Note: All figures are estimates and subject to rounding.


Source: AHDB/DairyCo Cheddar Supply Chain Margins 2014.

45

Prices and gross margins* for mild Cheddar** 2000 to 2014


Farmgate
milk price

Mild Cheddar
processor
gross margin*

Mild Cheddar
retailer
gross margin*

70

pence per litre

60
50
40
30
20
10

Ap
r
Ap 00
r
Ap 01
r
Ap 02
r
Ap 03
r
Ap 04
r
Ap 05
r
Ap 06
r
Ap 07
r
Ap 08
r
Ap 09
r
Ap 10
r
Ap 11
r
Ap 12
r
Ap 13
r
14

*The gross margin equals the difference between the selling price and buying price.
**Retailer private label, excludes branded products.
Data for the past 2 years has been revised based on the latest figures and may not exactly match
past reports.
Source: AHDB/DairyCo Cheddar Supply Chain Margins 2014.

46

Dairy processing and trade

UK mature Cheddar margins

Processor gross margins on mature Cheddar decreased by


0.3ppl between 2012/13 and 2013/14, although they are
0.6ppl higher than ten years ago. Retail gross margins on
mature Cheddar have decreased by 4.4ppl between 2012/13
and 2013/14 and have decreased by 4.8ppl in the past 10
years.
Margins (M) and prices for mature Cheddar
2003/04
ppl
Farmgate
price

18.3

Processor
gross margin

4.7

Processor
selling price

23.1

Retail gross
margin

31.9

Retail price

55.0

2012/13
ppl

28.4
21%

5.6

31.5
65.6

ppl

32.6
16%

34.0
58%

2013/14

5.3

14%

37.7
48%

27.1

42%

64.8

Note: All figures are estimates and subject to rounding.


Source: AHDB/DairyCo Cheddar Supply Chain Margins 2014.

47

Prices and gross margins* for mature Cheddar** 2000 to 2014


Farmgate
milk price

Mature Cheddar
processor margin*

Mature Cheddar
retailer margin*

80
70

pence per litre

60
50
40
30
20
10

Ap
r
Ap 00
r
Ap 01
r
Ap 02
r
Ap 03
r
Ap 04
r
Ap 05
r
Ap 06
r
Ap 07
r
Ap 08
r
Ap 09
r
Ap 10
r
Ap 11
r
Ap 12
r
Ap 13
r
14

*The gross margin equals the difference between the selling price and buying price.
**Retailer private label, excludes branded products.
Data for the past 2 years has been revised based on the latest figures and may not exactly match
past reports.
Source: AHDB/DairyCo Cheddar Supply Chain Margins 2014.

48

Dairy processing and trade

EU market management
measures
Milk Marketing Observatory
The European Milk Market Observatory (MMO) was set up in
April 2014 to strengthen the EU Commissions ability to monitor
the dairy market and assist the industry in adapting to life after
quota. The aim of the MMO is to provide the EU dairy sector
with more transparency by means of disseminating market data
and short-term analysis in a timely manner.
Private Storage Aid
The 2013 Private Storage Aid (PSA) scheme closed in August
with 89,615 tonnes of butter placed into storage, 33% less than
2012 and 15% less than 2011. The PSA scheme for butter is
not currently open although remains available to the EU as a
market management tool.
2013

2012

2011

140,000
120,000

Tonnes

100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Source: EU Commission.

49

Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)


From 1 January 2015, the latest CAP reform will come into
effect. Implementation will vary across GB based on decisions
made by each of the devolved governments. For full details,
please check the following websites:
For England:
gov.uk/government/collections/common-agricultural-policyreform
For Scotland:
scotland.gov.uk/Topics/farmingrural/Agriculture/CAP
For Wales:
wales.gov.uk/topics/environmentcountryside/
farmingandcountryside/cap/?lang=en

50

Dairy processing and trade

UK quota position

Wales

South East

South West

Quota

1,332

BF Vol

1,280

Diff.

-52

% Diff

-3.9%

Quota

2,104

BF Vol

1,878

Diff.

-226

% Diff

-10.7%

Quota

3,071

BF Vol

2,618

Diff.

-452

% Diff

-14.7%

Quota

3,554

BF Vol

3,080

Diff.

-474

% Diff

-13.3%

Quota

823

BF Vol

657

Diff.

-166

% Diff

-20.1%

Quota

1,710

BF Vol

1,540

Diff.

-170

% Diff

-9.9%

Scotland

North

Midlands
Wales

Midlands

North

Scotland

UK quota position (butterfat adjusted) 2012/13 (million litres)

South
East
South West

Note: These figures are taken from information provided by the RPA which list: Quota (million litres)
by region, Butterfat (BF) adjusted volumes delivered, difference between butterfat adjusted deliveries
and quota in litres and % difference of butterfat adjusted volumes to quota.
Source: RPA.

51

Dairy processing and trade

UK dairy trade balance

Lower milk production during the 2012/13 milk year will have
reduced stocks of dairy product. Imports of some products will
have increased to meet domestic consumer demand, while
there will have been limited availability of product for export.
Milk production in the latter part of 2013 allowed for increased
dairy product production, with the production volume of all
products increasing on 2012, with the exception of cheese.
However, exports did not necessarily reflect this as some
product will have been used to build up stocks.
Production

Imports

Exports

Domestic
use

Raw milk (a) (million litres)


2003

14,583

105

399

14,290

2012

13,451

129

466

13,113

2013*

13,546

132

473

13,205

Butter (b) (000 tonnes)


2003

131

118

44

207 (c)

2012

145

104

38

211

2013*

145

105

45

205

Cheese (000 tonnes)


2003

351

316

90

577

2012

397

444

126

715

2013*

388

469

125

732

2003

321

Cream (d) (000 tonnes)


15

114

222

2012

250

31

69

212

2013*

304

22

44

282

2003

216

45

2012

89

2013*

110

Milk powders (e) (000 tonnes)

52

*Provisional.

173

65 (c)

72

89

86 (c)

67

86

91

(a) Raw milk data is aggregated from surveys run by Defra, RERAD and DARD, on the utilisation of
milk by dairies.
(b) Includes butterfat and oil, dehydrated butter and ghee.
(c) Includes stock changes.
(d) Fresh, frozen and sterilised.
(e) Includes full cream powder, whole milk powder, partially skimmed milk powder and skimmed
milk powder.
Note: Butter and cream includes production from the residual fat of low fat milk products.
Butter, cream and cheese production includes farmhouse manufacture.
Source: Defra, AHDB/DairyCo.

UK dairy imports and exports


2003

2012

2013*

500

Thousand tonnes

400
300
200
100

rt
ex

po

rs

im
po

de

rs
de
w

ilk

po
M

ilk
M

po

rt

rt
po

rt

ex

po

m
ea
Cr

Cr

ea

im

ex
se
ee

Ch

se

im

po

po

rt

rt

t
or
xp
Ch

ee

re
tte

ri
tte
Bu

Bu

po

rt

*Provisional.
Source: Defra, AHDB/DairyCo.

53

Dairy processing and trade

EU dairy balance sheet

The European Dairy Association has forecast a 34% rise in


EU SMP exports in 2014. Butter exports are also forecast to
increase while cheese exports are expected to decline by
around 1%.
Production

Imports

Exports

Use (a)

Liquid milk (000 tonnes)


2010 EU-27

32,703

173

32,533

2013 EU-28*

32,700

410

32,295

2014 EU-28**

32,800

480

32,325

Butter (000 tonnes)


2010 EU-27

2,010

40

161

1,974

2013 EU-28*

2,110

44

128

2,027

2014 EU-28**

2,180

45

140

2,045

Cheese (000 tonnes)


2010 EU-27

9,237

83

676

8,908

2013 EU-28*

9,595

76

788

9,128

2014 EU-28**

9,725

75

780

9,230

2010 EU-27

1,080

379

800

2013 EU-28*

1,190

410

783

2014 EU-28**

1,350

550

780

SMP*** (000 tonnes)

(a) includes use from stocks.


*Provisional.
**Forecast.
***Skimmed Milk Powder.
Note: These figures ignore trade between EU member states.
Source: EDA.

54

Dairy processing and trade

World dairy trade

Exports from North America are forecast to fall in 2014,


according to the USDA, while exports from other regions
are expected to increase. New Zealand Whole Milk Powder
(WMP) exports are still expected to increase as Asian and
African countries maintain a healthy demand for milk powders
while the EUs Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) trade is also
expected to increase.
Exports by selected countries (000 tonnes)
2010

2013*

2014 (f)

Butter/Butteroil (a) 000 tonnes


N. America

60

98

75

S. America

20

22

24

EU-28

154

120

120

New Zealand

487

530

572

SMP** (b) 000 tonnes


N. America

390

571

550

S. America

20

16

15

EU-28

379

415

475

New Zealand

475

565

585

WMP*** 000 tonnes


N. America

10

12

12

S. America

142

202

224

EU-28

445

370

375

1,064

1,365

1,450

New Zealand

55

2010

2013*

2014 (f)

Cheese (c) 000 tonnes


N. America

188

321

316

S. America

53

49

53

EU-28

676

800

825

New Zealand

425

460

490

(a) Includes AMF equivalent.


(b) Includes Non-fat Dry Milk.
(c) Excludes fresh cheese.
*Provisional.
**Skimmed Milk Powder.
***Whole Milk Powder.
(f) forecast.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.

Exports for selected countries


Butter/
Butteroil (a)

SMP** (b)

WMP***

Cheese (c)

2,500

Thousand tonnes

2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0

2010

*Provisional.
**Skimmed Milk Powder.
***Whole Milk Powder.
(f) forecast.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.

56

2013*

2014 (f)

Consumer

UK average household
consumption
The annual average consumption of liquid milk fell by 8.1%
between 2002 and 2012 while yogurt and fromage frais
consumption increased by 19.2%.
Average purchase
(quantity/head/annum)
Unit

2002

2011

2012

Total liquid milk

85.3

78.3

78.3

Whole milk*

28.9

18.5

15.4

Semi-skimmed milk

47.8

51.1

54.7

8.6

8.7

8.2

Yogurt and fromage frais

8.5

10.4

10.1

Cream

1.0

1.2

1.3

Skimmed milk

Butter
Cheese

Litres

Kg

1.9

2.1

2.1

5.8

6.2

5.9

Expenditure (/head/annum)

Total liquid milk

2002

2011

2012

43.7

50.5

49.0

Whole milk*

15.0

11.5

9.3

Semi-skimmed milk

24.5

33.3

34.4

Skimmed milk

4.1

5.7

5.3

Yogurt and fromage frais

17.4

25.8

27.1

Cream

2.8

4.2

4.4

Butter

5.7

9.6

10.4

Cheese

30.1

41.8

41.9

*Includes full price whole milk and excludes school & welfare milk, includes UHT (Ultra Heat
Treated).
Note: These figures only measure dairy products consumed in the home. It does not include those
consumed out of the home or as an ingredient, eg cheese in a ready meal.
Source: Defra family food survey, AHDB/DairyCo.

57

UK average household consumption


2002

2011

2012

60

Litres/head/annum

50
40
30
20
10
0

Whole
milk*

Semi-skimmed Skimmed Yogurt and


milk
milk
fromage frais

*Includes full price whole milk and excludes school and welfare milk, includes UHT.
Source: Defra family food survey, AHDB/DairyCo.

58

Cream

Consumer

Liquid milk retail prices

In the year ending April 2014, the average price of liquid milk
increased by 0.4% compared to the previous 52-week period.
The average price for doorstep milk increased by 9.0% year-onyear.
ppl for 52-week period ending
Apr-13

Apr-14

% change

Total

61.6

61.8

0.4

Retail

59.3

59.4

0.3

Doorstep

119.3

130.0

9.0

Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

Retail prices for liquid milk


Total market

Total retail

Doorstep

140

ppl

120
100
80
60

Au 12
g
1
O 2
ct
1
De 2
c
1
Fe 2
b
1
Ap 3
r
1
Ju 3
n

Au 13
g
1
O 3
ct
1
De 3
c
1
Fe 3
b
1
Ap 4
r
14

Ju

Ap

12

40

Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

59

Consumer

Branded vs private label


liquid milk retail prices
For the year ending April 2014, private label accounted for
80.4% of the total GB liquid milk market in volume terms.
Branded liquid milk
52-w/e Apr-13

52-w/e Apr-14

Volume (million litres)

898.0

858.2

Expenditure ( million)

666.0

666.4

74.0

78.0

Average price (ppl)

Private label liquid milk


52-w/e Apr-13

52-w/e Apr-14

Volume (million litres)

4,110.7

4,256.2

Expenditure ( million)

2,302.8

2,373.8

56.0

56.0

Average price (ppl)

Other liquid milk*


52-w/e Apr-13

52-w/e Apr-14

Volume (million litres)

202.1

179.1

Expenditure ( million)

241.4

233.0

Average price (ppl)

119.0

130.0

Note: Branded and Private Label liquid milk is based on Kantar definition.
*The majority (99.96%) of other milk is doorstep delivered milk.
Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

60

Consumer

Liquid milk sales

The total liquid milk market in GB grew to almost 5.3 billion


litres in the year ending April 2014.
Doorstep market share has fallen to 3.4% for the year ending
April 2014.
52-week period ending
Apr-13

Apr-14

% Change

Liquid milk volume sales


Volume (million litres)

5,210.7

5,293.5

1.6%

Expenditure ( million)

3,210.2

3,273.1

2.0%

% market share
(volume)
Retail

96.1%

96.6%

Doorstep

3.9%

3.4%

Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

Liquid milk market volume


5,400

Million litres

5,300
5,200
5,100
5,000

ay
Au 1
g 0
N 10
ov
Fe 10
b
M 11
ay
Au 1
g 1
N 11
ov
Fe 11
b
M 12
ay
Au 1
g 2
N 12
ov
Fe 12
b
M 13
ay
Au 1
g 3
N 13
ov
Fe 13
b
1
4

4,900

Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

61

Consumer

Pasteurised milk

Semi-skimmed milk purchases represent almost 62% of the total


GB pasteurised milk market in volume terms for the year ending
April 2014.
Pasteurised milk volume sales
52-week period ending
Apr-13

Apr-14

Whole milk

22.6%

22.2%

Semi-skimmed

61.7%

61.8%

Low % fat milk

5.4%

5.5%

Skimmed
Total (million litres)

10.3%

10.5%

4,448.7

4,584.7

Note: % will not add up to 100% as pasteurised includes other types.


Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

62

Consumer

Organic and filtered milk sales

The volume of organic milk sales increased by 4.7% between


April 2013 and April 2014. Over this period, the average price
increased by 3.1% to 86.2ppl.
Organic milk has a 2.7% volume share of the total GB retail
liquid milk market.
Organic milk sales
52-week period ending
Apr-13

Apr-14

% Change

Volume (million litres)

134.5

140.8

4.7%

Expenditure ( million)

112.4

121.4

7.9%

Average price (ppl)

83.6

86.2

3.1%

Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

Filtered milk sales


The filtered milk market saw volumes fall by 11.0% between
April 2013 and April 2014.
In volume terms, filtered milk accounts for 5.5% of the total GB
retail liquid milk market.
52-week period ending
Apr-13

Apr-14

% Change

Volume (million litres)

326.2

290.2

-11.0%

Expenditure ( million)

252.2

236.9

-6.1%

77.3

81.6

5.6%

Average price (ppl)


Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

63

Consumer

Modified and UHT milk sales

Modified milk currently accounts for 0.1% of the total GB liquid


milk market in terms of volume.
Modified milk is classified as milk with additives to provide
further nutritional benefits.
Modified milk sales
52-week period ending
Apr-13

Apr-14

% Change

Volume (million litres)

4.1

3.9

-4.3%

Expenditure ( million)

5.4

5.3

-1.6%

130.8

134.5

2.8%

Average price (ppl)


Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

UHT milk sales


Volume sales of UHT milk fell by 7.9% between April 2013 and
April 2014 to 280.5 million litres. UHT milk sales represented
5.3% of the total GB liquid milk market in volume terms.
The average price of UHT milk increased by 5.5% to 66.9ppl in
April 2014.
52-week period ending
Apr-13

Apr-14

% Change

Volume (million litres)

304.4

280.5

-7.9%

Expenditure ( million)

193.2

187.7

-2.8%

Average price (ppl)

63.5

66.9

5.5%

Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

64

Consumer

Milk purchases by
container type
Nearly half of milk purchased by consumers in GB was in a
4-pint container in the year ending April 2014.
Milk volume
(million litres)

% share

1 litre

453.1

8.6%

1 pint

303.7

5.7%

2 litre

820.0

15.5%

Container size

2 pint

517.5

9.8%

4 pint

2,641.6

49.9%

6 pint

451.0

8.5%

Other

110.2

2.1%

Total

5,297.1

100.0%

Note: Data for the 52 weeks ending April 2014.


Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

Milk purchases (%) by container size for the year ending


April 2014

6 pint

Other 1 litre
1 pint

2 litre

4 pint

Source: Kantar Worldpanel, AHDB/DairyCo.

2 pint

65

Consumer

Cheese market

GB volume sales in the cheese market increased by 0.3%


between 2013 and 2014.
The average cheese price rose by 2.8% between 2013 and
2014.
Cheese sales
52-week period ending
May-12

May-13

May-14

408,703

415,834

417,263

Expenditure (million)

2,626

2,703

2,788

Average price (/kg)

6.43

6.50

6.68

Volume (tonnes)

Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

Volume sales by cheese type (tonnes)


52-week period ending

Total Cheddar

May-13

May-14

225,739

228,273

227,058

Hard continental

16,986

18,893

18,848

Soft continental

25,962

26,977

30,438

Territorials ex. blue

32,664

32,329

30,002

Processed

40,609

40,182

39,096

Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

66

May-12

Cheese volumes sales

Thousand tonnes

420

400

380

360

340

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Territorials
ex. blue

Processed

Note: Data for the 52 weeks ending May.


Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

Volume sales by cheese type


2012

2013

2014

250

Thousand tonnes

200
150
100
50
0

Total
Cheddar

Hard
Soft
continental continental

Note: Data for the 52 weeks ending May.


Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

Average cheese price (/kg)


52-week period ending
May-12

May-13

May-14

Cheddar

6.37

6.44

6.58

Hard continental

9.18

8.86

9.42

Soft continental

6.38

6.29

6.55

Territorials ex.Blue

6.79

6.70

6.95

Processed

6.51

6.66

6.87

Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

67

Consumer

Cheddar market

Volume sales of Cheddar in GB fell by 0.5% from 2013 to


2014.
The average price of Cheddar (all types) increased by 2.2% to
6.58/kg between 2013 and 2014.
Volume sales by cheese type (tonnes)
52-week period ending
May-12

May-13

May-14

Mild

39,014

35,826

36,694

Medium

16,244

16,739

7,167

Mature

109,043

106,457

111,833

39,981

44,390

40,900

Vintage

5,015

5,642

4,916

Farmhouse

5,379

4,781

3,665

Other and full flavour

11,062

14,438

11,882

Total Cheddar

225,739

228,273

227,058

Extra mature

Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

68

Cheddar volume sales


2012

2013

2014

120

Thousand tonnes

100
80
60
40
20

vo
u
fla

ho

ll

rm
O

th

er

an

fu

Fa

Ex
t

e
us

ge
ta

ur
ra

at

M
at

Vi
n

e
ur

m
iu
M
ed

M
ild

Note: Data for the 52 weeks ending May.


Source: Kantar Worldpanel, AHDB/DairyCo.

Average price (/kg)


52-week period ending
May-12

May-13

May-14

Mild

5.64

5.76

5.81

Medium

6.47

6.37

6.46

Mature

6.41

6.47

6.58

Extra mature

6.70

6.83

7.06

Vintage

7.52

7.73

8.49

Farmhouse

6.64

7.01

7.85

Other and full flavour

6.65

6.10

6.35

Total Cheddar

6.37

6.44

6.58

Source: Kantar Worldpanel.

69

Consumer

EU butter consumption

UK butter consumption, at 3.4kg/capita/annum in 2012, was


less than half that consumed in France.
Kg/capita/annum
2008

2011

2012

EU-27

3.6

3.6

3.7

Denmark

1.8

1.8

1.8

Germany

6.2

6.1

6.2

France

7.5

7.6

7.4

Ireland

2.4

2.4

2.4

Italy

2.4

2.3

2.3

Netherlands

3.3

3.3

3.3

Poland

4.3

4.2

4.1

Spain

0.5

0.5

0.6

UK

2.8

3.1

3.4

Sweden

1.5

1.7

1.8

Note: Figures may include butter produced from other animals.


Source: Dutch Dairy Board.

70

Consumer

EU liquid milk consumption

The UK is one of the highest consuming countries of liquid milk


in the EU-27, with approximately 103 litres consumed/capita/
annum in 2012.
Litres/capita/annum
2008

2011

2012

EU-27

63.0

62.4

62.2

Denmark

87.8

85.9

87.4

Germany

53.4

53.1

53.4

France

57.3

52.8

52.7

Ireland

139.0

135.9

135.9

Italy

52.6

54.3

52.8

Netherlands

50.5

47.6

47.6

Poland

42.7

41.2

41.0

Spain

81.7

81.7

80.8

UK

100.6

104.3

103.1

Sweden

100.4

89.2

89.4

Note: Figures may include milk from other animals.


Source: Dutch Dairy Board.

71

Consumer

EU cheese consumption

Cheese consumption in the UK was around 11kg/capita/annum


in 2012 approximately 6kg less than the EU-27 average.
Kg/capita/annum
2008

2012

EU-27

16.8

17.3

17.2

Denmark

16.4

16.6

16.4

Germany

22.2

24.2

24.3

France

26.9

26.3

26.2

Ireland

6.0

6.7

6.7

Italy

20.6

21.8

20.9

Netherlands

19.3

19.4

19.4

Poland

10.7

11.4

11.4

Spain

7.6

9.5

9.3

UK

11.8

11.0

11.2

Sweden

18.4

19.0

19.7

Note: Figures may include cheese from other animals.


Source: Dutch Dairy Board.

72

2011

Useful information

Conversion tables

Converting volumes/weights
1 litre

= 35.1950 fluid ounces


= 1.75975 pints
= 0.21997 gallons

1 pint

= 20 fluid ounces
= 0.56825 litres

1 kg

= 35.2740 ounces
= 2.20462 pounds

1 tonne

= 1,000 kg
= 2,204.62 pounds
= 0.98421 long ton

Converting volumes/weights of milk


1 litre of whole milk

= 1.02969 kg

1 kg of whole milk

= 0.97116 litres

Note: Due to rounding, there may be instances where individual figures differ slightly from the total
given.

73

Useful information

UK dairy industry
organisations
DairyCo
Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board
Stoneleigh Park
Kenilworth
Warwickshire
CV8 2TL
T: 024 7669 2051
email: info@dairyco.ahdb.org.uk
web: dairyco.org.uk

Dairy UK
93 Baker Street
London
W1U 6QQ
T: 020 7486 7244
F: 020 7487 4734
email: info@dairyuk.org
web: dairyuk.org

The Dairy Council


93 Baker Street
London
W1U 6QQ
T: 020 7467 2629
F: 020 7935 3920
email: info@dairycouncil.org.uk
web: milk.co.uk

74

Dairy Council for Northern Ireland


Shaftesbury House
Edgewater Business Park
Edgewater Road
Belfast
BT3 9JQ
T: 02890 770 113
F: 02890 781 224
email: info@dairycouncil.co.uk
web: dairycouncil.co.uk

National Farmers Union


Agriculture House
Stoneleigh Park
Stoneleigh
Warwickshire
CV8 2TZ
T: 024 7685 8500
F: 024 7685 8501
web: nfuonline.com

Royal Association of British Dairy Farmers


Dairy House
Unit 31
Abbey Park
Stareton
Kenilworth
Warwickshire
CV8 2LY
T: 0845 458 2711
F: 0845 458 2755
email: office@rabdf.co.uk
web: rabdf.co.uk

75

Useful information

Internet sites for sourcing


agricultural information
British Cheese Board
britishcheese.com
Canadian Dairy Information Centre
dairyinfo.gc.ca
Dairy Australia
dairyaustralia.com.au
DairyCo
dairyco.org.uk
dairyco.org.uk/market-information/
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)
gov.uk/defra
Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (DARD)
dardni.gov.uk
Dutch Dairy Board
prodzuivel.nl
European Commission Agricultural Directorate
ec.europa.eu/dgs/agriculture/index_en.htm
Eurostat (Statistical Office of the European Union)
epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
Fonterra Co-operative Group
(incorporating New Zealand Dairy Board)
fonterra.com
Fonterra GlobalDairyTrade
globaldairytrade.info/
Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO)
fao.org
FAOSTAT Database
faostat.fao.org
Ian Potter Associates
ipaquotas.com

76

International Dairy Federation (IDF)


fil-idf.org
National Farmers Union
nfuonline.com
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD)
oecd.org
Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
opec.org
Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
rics.org/
Rural Payments Agency (RPA)
rpa.gov.uk
Scottish Government Statistics
scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Agriculture-Fisheries
Statistics Canada
statcan.gc.ca
UK National Statistics
statistics.gov.uk/hub
United Dairy Farmers (UDF)
utdni.co.uk
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
usda.gov/wps/portal/usdahome
University of Wisconsin Dairy Marketing and Risk Management
Program
future.aae.wisc.edu
Welsh Government
wales.gov.uk/topics/statistics/?lang=en
World Trade Organisation
wto.org

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Useful information

About DairyCo

DairyCo is a levy-funded, not-for-profit organisation working on


behalf of Britains dairy farmers. Our remit is to solve market
failure in the dairy industry to tackle issues not currently
being dealt with sufficiently to meet the needs of the industry.
Our four main strategies:
The provision of a world-class information service
Helping dairy farmers meet and manage environment
needs and regulatory requirements
Helping dairy farmers increase their profitability through
better business management
Promoting the positive perception of dairy farming with
the general public
DairyCo is a division of the Agriculture and Horticulture
Development Board (AHDB).
DairyCo is funded entirely by milk producers, via a statutory
levy on all milk sold off-farm, at the rate of 0.06p per litre.
This provides an annual income of around 6.9m.

78

The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) operating through its DairyCo
division, seeks to ensure that the information contained within this document is accurate at the time
of printing. No warranty is given in respect thereof and, to the maximum extent permitted by law,
the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury
howsoever caused (including that caused by negligence) or suffered directly or indirectly in relation
to information and opinions contained in or omitted from this document
Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board 2014. All rights reserved. No part of this
publication may be reproduced in any material form (including by photocopy or storage in any
medium by electronic means) or any copy or adaptation stored, published or distributed (by
physical, electronic or other means) without the prior permission in writing of the Agriculture and
Horticulture Development Board, other than by reproduction in an unmodified form for the sole
purpose of use as information resource when the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board
(Or DairyCo) is clearly acknowledged as the source, or in accordance with the provisions of the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved.
AHDB (logo) is a registered trademark of the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.

79

Agriculture and Horticulture


Development Board
Stoneleigh Park
Kenilworth
Warwickshire
CV8 2TL
T: 024 7669 2051
E: info@dairyco.ahdb.org.uk
dairyco.org.uk

Additional copies of this publication can be ordered from:



dairyco.org.uk or 024 7669 2051


(ask for DairyCo publications)

It can also be downloaded from dairyco.org.uk

Sign up to receive regular dairy market updates by email at


dairyco.org.uk/sign-up

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