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134
THE AMERICAN
ECONOMIC REVIEW
of a tradition against continuous borrowing from the central bank, reinforcement of this tradition by "direct pressure," and lack of use of other central
bank powers to maintain the volume of bank reserves.
As a final comment in this dissent I would like to refer to the concluding
part of Professor Fellner's review in which he expresses his own belief in the
great value of compensatory fiscal policy as an anti-depression technique
and states that its possibilities are seriously underestimatedif not disregarded.
This remedy for periods of severe unemployment has been popular with
economists in recent years; but has been proposed without a reasonable
scrutiny of the factual evidence respecting the conditions precedent to serious
lapses from full employment in the past. Such examination of the relevant
data as I have been able to make leads to the conclusion, in line with traditional theory, that the most vital condition for maintenance of a high level
of employment and output is a reasonable rate of growth in the nation's
money instead of the erraticism which has plagued us throughout the history
of our nation. A compensatory fiscal policy, carried out in a manner producing appropriate effects on the quantity of money, may be an antidote
to a dose of improper monetary policy; but with proper monetary policy
exercised through ordinary central bank operations, an antidote will not be
required.
CLARK WARBURTON*
* The author is principal economist, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The views
expressed are his personal opinion.
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135
COMMUNICATIONS
TABLEI.-PUBLIC ANDPRIVATE
CONSTRUCTION,
WORKRELIEF,GOVERNMENT
EXPENDITURES
FOR GOODS AND SERVICES, AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT, 1929-1938
(In billions of dollars)
Regular
Public
Construction
Work
Relief
Constu
iConstrucConstructin
to
tiona plUS
Main-an
tenanceb)
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1931-38 average
level .....
New
Work
Relief
aed
Wgs
Private
Constructoa
to
Expenditures
Gos for
anods
3.227f
3.648f
3.353f
2.418
1.743
2.085
2.089
2.884
2.756
2.812
.114
.578
.431
1.290
.895
1.337
.059
.132
.656
1.387
1.329
2.155
1.639
2.094
2.517
.580
1.181
Increase: 1931-38
level minus 1930
level ......................
Decline: 1930 level
minus 1931-38
level .....
Total
Total
Government
Servicese
Private
Investment
(Gross
Capital
Formatin)
tione)
8.587
5.902
3.944
1.861
1.383
1.775
2.282
3.194
4.135
3.608
11.0
11.2
11.5
10.2
9.1
10.8
11.9
12.6
13.6
14.4
17.6
12.1
6.4
2.2
3.3
5.3
6.7
10.0
11.6
7.7
2.785
11.7
6.25
..............................
.5
1.131
..........
5.802
..........
11.35
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136
THE AMERICAN
ECONOMIC REVIEW
1930-38
ONCONSTRUCTION
(millions of dollars)
State and Local Construction
Federal Construction
Year
Year
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
Total
Average 193138
IN'ew
Mi-Total Work
MainRelief
tenance
460
509
665
812
1,273
1,169
1,068
0
0
114
578
431
1,290
895
1,337
4,645
360
469
503
665
1,289
1,294
2,619
2,123
2,467
11,429
580
1,428
43
42
46
51
56
59
62
Federal
Construction
Maintenance
1,334
707
794
616
881
845
1,089
581
485
553
589
654
659
674
Total
State
and
Local
3,288
2,884
1,915
1,192
1,347
1,205
1,535
1,504
1,763
13,345
1,676
3,648
24,774
10 per cent
58 per cent
398 per cent
50 per cent
Source: Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, Survey of Current Business, August,
1939, P. 11.
construction. Total wages paid on all types of work relief, including nonconstruction projects such as the Works Project Administration art and
research projects, averaged only $1.181 billion a year during these years.
Even if we raise this by a substantial fraction to allow for work relief expenditures other than wages and salaries,' the total will not be so very much
larger than the decline of $1.131 billion in the average expenditures on
regular public construction.
1 For example, it is estimated that wages and salaries amounted to only 79.3 per cent of all
Civilian Works Administration expenditures. See Corrington Gill, "The Civil Works Administration," in Municipal Year Book, 1937, p. 419.
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COMMUNICATIONS
137
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138
THE AMERICAN
ECONOMIC REVIEW
reference on the one hand to the volume of federal non-construction expenditures required to support direct relief and general salvaging operations,
and on the other hand to the decline in federal revenues despite the increases
in tax rates. The need for additional relief, and the shrinkage of the tax
base, would occur in any depression, and would be more rather than less
acute if no federal efforts were made to offset declines in the public works
activity of the State and local governments.
While the average volume of public works declined rather than increased
during the depression years, the number of regular government workers did
increase, but not nearly to the extent that many people suppose. The 193138 average of employment at all levels of government was only 400 thousand
or 13 per cent, above the 1929 level.2 This includes personnel administering
relief and recovery programs as well as other government programs, but
does not, of course, include non-administrative workers on public works and
work relief programs referred to above.
The federal public works program actually undertaken in the depression
was far too small to offset the decline in private expenditures. Parts of this
program were, nevertheless, subjected to severe criticism-whether or not
justified-for being competitive with private enterprises or for being unessential, and hence wasteful of public funds. A public works program substantially larger than the one undertaken in the depression would be even
more exposed to this sort of criticism. Careful advance planning would help,
but if the program were large enough, it could hardly be invulnerable in this
respect. Moreover, the larger the program became the greater would be the
difficulty experienced in starting and stopping it quickly enough to make a
maximum contribution to economic stability.
From the postulate that public works cannot be counted upon to stabilize
the economy some persons have drawn the pessimistic conclusion that
government cannot properly assume any major obligation to aid in maintaining economic stability and high levels of employment. Our government
has refused to accept this conclusion. By the terms of the "Employment
Act of 1946," the federal government accepts the responsibility "to use all
practicable means consistent with its needs and obligations and other essential considerations of national policy, with the assistance and cooperation of industry, agriculture, labor, and State and local governments, to
coordinate and utilize all its plans, functions, and resources, for the purpose
of creating and maintaining, in a manner calculated to foster and promote
free competitive enterprise and the general welfare, conditions under which
there will be afforded useful employment opportunities, including selfemployment for those able, willing, and seeking to work, and to promote
maximum employment, production, and purchasing power."
In discussing the policies needed to implement this obligation, the
President in the first of the annual Economic Reports required by the act,
cautioned against "an overemphasis upon the prospects of stabilizing our
2 See "PublicEmploymentand Pay Rolls in the United States, 1929-39," Mo. Lab. Rev.
(Feb., 1945),TableI, p. 245.
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COMMUNICATIONS
139
whole economy through the bold use of public works."3 Recognizing that
"there are valid reasons why public works cannot accomplish as much
toward stabilization as some have supposed,"3 he did not conclude that
government efforts to stabilize the economy would therefore be fruitless.
Instead, he called for the development of a wide variety of government
policies in the fields of taxation, monopoly, debt management, social
security, etc., designed to promote maximum employment, production
and purchasing power. Such policies would seek to maintain the level of
activity in all sectors of the economy including the consumer goods and
private capital goods industries. Implicit in this approach is the recognition
that by such measures the government may indirectly create many more
jobs than it can directly provide on public works and government payrolls.
By modifying the disposable incomes of individuals and businesses, and
their willingness to spend these incomes, such measures may profoundly
influence the volume of economic activity generated in the private sectorthe major sector-of our economy.
Recognition of the limitations of public works as a general economic
stabilizer need not, therefore, imply an abandonment of government
responsibility for the maintenance of adequate employment opportunity
and the promotion of maximum employment, production and purchasing
power. Rather, such recognition is an indispensable preliminary to the development of a well-rounded and realistic program by which this responsibility may be effectively discharged.
EMILE BENOIT-SMULLYAN*
3
p. 28.
* The author is professor of economics and head of the department of economics at the
Associated Colleges of Upper New York. The article was written while he was associated with
the Department of Labor, but he bears sole responsibility both for the data presented and for
the conclusions drawn.
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