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outlook 2010
3
The European private equity market volume declined by 27% to
EUR 54 bn in 2008 – 2009 looks even worse
% change p.a. 39.4 -30.6 14.0 5.1 26.8 27.3 51.1 4.2 -27.0
73.8
71.0
8.0
16.0
54.0
47.0 7.1
36.9 12 9
12.9
35.0
27.7 29.1 10.3 65.8
25.1 24.3 55.0 15-20
19.7 8.4 46.9 FY
9.8
Venture 10.7 12.2 34 1
34.1
26.6
17.9 20.7
Buyout 14.4 15.3 12.1 8.5
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 H1 20091)
Buyout Venture capital
1) No split in buyout and venture capital available – Full Year (FY) = estimate
23.48
20.90
13.75
5.53 5.75
2 67
2.67
10.60 9.21 0.30 0.68 0.63
7.23
0.35 0.17 0.44 0.02 0.02 0.03
10.80 11.86
9.08
0.26 0.86 0.33 0.73
0 73 0.49
0 49 0.48
0 48 0 11 0.48
0.11 0 48 0.27
0 27
Source: EVCA 5
Strong focus remains on late stage buyout financing – Now and
in the future
Replacement
5
capital
80
68 71 70
63
Buyout 45
112.3
-49%
81.4 79.6
71.8 71.0 74.0
54.0
47.0
36.9
29.8 33.1
27.0 29.1 27.5 27.1
19.6
13 6
13.6 13 9
13.9
5.7 6.9 2.8
9
Judging by macroeconomic indicators, the PE environment will
remain difficult
Current situation
151 156
20
150 143
15
100 97
78
10
63
55
50
27 5,0
0 0
Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q12008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q12009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 20091)
0
0
-100 -5
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
1st wave: 1980s 2nd wave: 1990s 3rd wave: today
Breaking up
p B ll market and crash
Bull Again – bull
b ll market and
conglomerates another crash
1) M&A with PE involvement
Trend: Influence:
Source: EIU 13
Low interest rates are becoming increasingly crucial for
bearing the financing burden
300
10
200
100
5
0
-100 0
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
1st wave: 1980s 2nd wave: 1990s 3rd wave: today
Breaking up
p B ll market and crash
Bull Again – bull
b ll market and
conglomerates another crash
5.5 Start of
5.0 subprime crisis Euribor, 3-month offered rate
4.5
4.0
3.5 Main refinancing rate
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
00
0.0
January 2007 July 2007 January 2008 July 2008 January 2009 July 2009
Source: Bloomberg 16
Healthy stock markets normally provide exit options for PE
investments – In most cases with a time lag
300
50
200
100
0
0
-100 -50
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
1st wave: 1980s 2nd wave: 1990s 3rd wave: today
Breaking up
p B ll market and crash
Bull Again – bull
b ll market and
conglomerates another crash
1,500
2007 2008 2009 Forecast
F
2010
Trend: Influence:
Outlook
> GDP growth in Europe will recover starting in 2010 and thus positively affect private
equity industry performance
> However, as a result of the financial crisis, bank financing for new deals – but also re
re-
financing for existing portfolio companies – will be smaller in terms of volume,
covenants will be stricter and costs will be higher
> Restricted bank lending might also hit highly leveraged companies,
companies which will lead to
increased risk of default
> After the rebound in 2009, the outlook for European
p stock markets in 2010 remains
cautious – very limited options for profitable IPO exits
20
Where does the profit come from when the business
environment remains unfavorable?
Sources of profit
ACQUISITION HOLDING PERIOD EXIT
1. 2. 3.
Due diligence & Investment Selling price Investors have to
purchase price performance manage three
critical steps in
Assess target Actions designed to Selection of the right order to meet the
potentials in effective ensure and drive moment and exit high performance
due diligence; profitable growth channel to realize requirements –
Low purchase price in (cut costs, improve highest value focus on
relation to fair value; sales, reduce working acquisition and
high leverage capital improve liquidity)
capital, holding period
REALIZING VALUE
Growing through Realizing stand-alone
strategic realignment improvements through
and sales
sales-up
up actions cost savings
P&L
Business plan Balance sheet
Plausibility checks (revenues, Cashflow
cost development)
6.12
5.50
5.23 5.17
4.90
4 61
4.61
4.39 4.25
4.17 4.16
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 H1 2009
45.7 Active
involvement in
29.7 29.8 restructuring
secures higher
return for
investor
Without Passive "Blocking
Blocking Supervisory Active Executive
investor position" function (w/o board function
participation)
Investor influence
1) Operating profit to total assets
Source: Thomson Financial; Datastream; Dow Jones & Reuters; Factiva; Roland Berger Research 27
3. EXIT
23.9
Trade sale 23.0
> Trade sale to strategic investors
10.6 remains the most important exit
Secondary PE 11.7 channel
h l iin 2008
Total loss/ 6.6 > Sale to secondary PE investors
writeoff 10.9 remains difficult given restricted
Sale to mgmt. 7.4 availability
il bilit off d
debt
bt
(MBO) 7.5
> Writeoffs increased to over
9.4 10% of total exits
IPO 5.8
> IPO in current market conditions
Other (mainly 42.1
41.0 nearly impossible
repayments)
2007
2008
Conclusion
> Private equity funds are facing high return expectations by their investors that only few in the industry
can meet
> Acquiring investments is becoming more and more difficult.
difficult Therefore
Therefore, creating value only by "dealing"
dealing
in companies is very difficult
> To stand out from industry average, all available value creation levers must be used, especially in the
holding period
> Established management approaches are the main tools – restructuring, portfolio management and
value management.
g In applying
pp y g these tools,, the pprivate equity
q y fund manager
g has to demonstrate that he
is superior to "normal" conglomerate managers
> A successful private equity fund manager must be a company dealer and a top manager rolled into
one – he must at least must be able to manage both sides of the business
29