Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
For
Center for Strategic and International Studies
February 26, 2015 | Washington, DC
By
Adam Sieminski
U.S. Energy Information Administration
U.S. Energy Information Administration
www.eia.gov
100
80
60
40
20
0
1970
Key takeaways
Oil prices: EIAs forecast for Brent averages $58/b in 2015 and $75/b in 2016. The
market-implied 95% confidence band for Brent (estimated from WTI futures and options
prices) is extremely wide with a range from $35/b to $100/b across 2015-2016.
Demand: Non-OECD Asia accounts for more than 50% of forecast liquids consumption
growth of roughly 1 million b/d both 2015 and 2016; lower demand growth is a major a
downside risk to the price forecast
U.S. oil production: Lower-48 oil production in 4Q2015 and 1Q2016 is only slightly
above its 4Q2014 level; however, offshore production continues to grow steadily
The economy and consumers: EIAs energy forecast reflects a U.S. economic growth
outlook for 2015-16 that is somewhat stronger than 2013-14 experience.
Relatively low oil prices and increased energy efficiency Energy expenditures as a
share of GDP are forecast at 6.2% in 2015, their lowest level since 2002, reflecting
both lower oil prices and energy efficiency.
Average U.S. household (20,800 miles of vehicle travel) projected gasoline spending
is $750 less in 2015 than in 2014, and about $450 less in 2016 than in 2014.
Brent crude oil prices were relatively stable through the first half of
2014; increased oil supply and lower global economic growth
expectations lowered prices from July 2014 to January 2015
dollars per barrel
120
Potential disruption in
Iraq oil production
Higher, sustained
Libyan oil production
110
100
90
Potential disruption in
Russian oil/gas
exports
80
70
60
50
40
Jan-2014
Apr-2014
Jul-2014
Oct-2014
Jan-2015
0
Jan Apr
Jul
2016
Oct
120
2014-16
Forecast
100
80
60
40
20
year 1
year 3
year 2
0
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2014
Effects of low oil prices
February 26, 2015
annual change
million barrels per day
8
Forecast
7
6
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
-1
76
-2
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
North American oil production growth slows with lower oil prices
but remains the main driver of global production growth
World crude oil and liquid fuels production growth
million barrels per day
2.0
Forecast
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
2014
2015
2016
OPEC countries
North America
Latin America
North Sea
Other Non-OPEC
10
$4,568
$4,534
$393
$416
$3,750
4,000
$4,086
$403
$1,422
$1,464
$392
3,000
Natural gas
$1,515
$142
$140
$1,489
$114
2,000
Electricity
Fuel oil and other fuels
$103
$2,611
Transportation (gasoline
and motor oil)
$2,514
1,000
$1,766
$2,054
0
2013
2014
2015
2016
Sources: 2013 expenditures and income from BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey. The average household in the
BLS survey (called a consuming unit) averages 2.5 people and 1.3 income earners. Expenditures for 2014-16 based
on average prices from EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2015
Effects of low oil prices
February 26, 2015
11
Increase Prices
Decrease Prices
12
13
14
North American border crossing points for electricity and oil and
natural gas pipelines
15
16
17
18