IE 111 Fall 2011

Homework #3
1. Learn the concept of conditional probability by Venn diagram
a) If P(A|B) =1, must A=B? Draw a Venn diagram to explain your answer?
Answer:

From the Venn diagram, it satisfies P(A|B)=1, but AB.

b) Suppose A and B are mutually exclusive events. Construct a Venn diagram that
contains the three events A, B, and C such that P(A|C) =1 and P(B|C) =0?

2. Two cards are drawn at random from a deck. Find the probability that both are
aces.
Solution: (4/52) (3/51)= (1/221)
3. Samples of skin experiencing desquamation are analyzed for both moisture and
melanin content. The results from 100 skin samples are as follows:

Moisture high

Melanin
High
13

content
low
7

Content

low

48

32

Let A denote the event that a sample has low melanin content, and let B denote
the event that sample has high moisture content. Determine the following
probabilities:
a) P(A) b)P(B)

c) P(A|B)

d) P(B|A)

Solution: a) P(A)= (7+32)/100 = 0.4 b) P(B) = (13+7)/100 =0.2

c) P(A|B) = P(A B) / P(B) = (7/100)/ (20/100) =0.35
d) P(B|A) = P(A B)/ P(A) = (7/100)/0.4 = 0.175

4. An integer is selected at random from {1, 2, , 100}. Given that the number
selected is divisible by 2, find the probability that it is divisible by 3 or 5.
Solution: Let A_2 = event that the number is divisible by 2
Let A_3 = event that the number is divisible by 3
Let A_5 = event that the number is divisible by 5
P(A_3

A_5 | A_2) =

P[(A_3 A_5)

= P [(A_3 A_2)
= P(A_3

A_2 ] / P(A_2)

(A_5 A_2) ] / P(A_2)

A_2) + P (A_5

A_2) P(A_3 A_5 A_2) / P (A_2)

P(A_3

A_2) = 16/100, P (A_5 A_2) = 10/100, P(A_3 A_5 A_2)= 3/100

P(A_3

A_5 | A_2) = (16/100 + 10/100 + 3/100) / (50/100) = 23/50 = 0.46

5. Let A and B be events defined in a sample space S. Prove that if both P(A) and
P(B) are non zero, then events A and B cannot be both mutually exclusive and
independent.
Solution: Let A and B be mutually exclusive events and P(A) 0 and P(B)
0. Then
P(A B) = 0 but P(A)P(B) 0.
So P(A B) P(A)P(B)
A and B can not be independent.

6. We have two coins, the first is fair and the second two-headed. We pick one of the
coins at random, we toss it twice and heads shows both times. Find the probability
that the coin picked is fair.
Solution:
In this experiment, each outcome consists of a particular coin selection and two
coin tosses. So for example, fhh represents picking the fair coin and obtaining hh.
Now, the event F ={the selected coin is fair}={fhh,fht, fth,ftt},
Fc = {the selected coin is two-headed}={fchh}
P(F)=P(Fc) =1/2
P(hh|F)=1/4,
p(hh|Fc)=1
We want to find P (F|hh), so
P(hh)= P(hh|F)P(F) + P(hh|Fc)P(Fc) =5/8
P(F/hh)= P(hh/F)P(F)/ P(hh) = (1/4) (1/2) / (5/8) =1/5
7. Let A and B be two independent events in S. It is known that P(A B)=0.16 and P(A
B) =0.64. Find P(A) and P(B)
Solution:

P(A B) = P(A)+P(B)- P(A)P(B) =0.64

P(A)+P(B)- 0.16 =0.64
P(A)+P(B) =0.80
P(A B) = P(A)P(B) =0.16
Two equations, two unknowns. By inspection: P(A)=P(B)=0.4

8. The relay network shown below operates if and only if there is a closed path of relays
from left to right. Assume that relays fail independently and that the probability of failure
of each delay is as shown. What is the probability that the relay network operates?

Solution: (1- 0.2*(1 - (1 - 0.4)*(1 - 0.4))*0.3)*(1 - 0.1) = 0.8654

9. A lot of 50 semiconductors chips contains 10 that are defective. Two chips are selected
at random, without replacement, from the lot.

a) What is the probability that the first one selected is defective?

b) What is the probability that the second one selected is defective given that the first one
was defective?
c) what is the probability that both are defective?
Solution: a) 20/50 = 0.4
b) 19/49=0.3878
c) let A denote the event that the first one selected is defective, B denote the
event that the second one selected is defective. So the probability that both are defective
is P(A B)=P(B|A)P(A)= (19/49)(0.4)=0.1551
10. Let A, B and C be three events in S. If P(A)=P(B)=1/4, P(C)=1/3, P(A B)=1/8, P(A
C)=1/6, also B and C are mutually exclusive. Find P(A B C)
Solution: Since B and C are mutually exclusive, so P(B C)= P(A B C) =0
P(A B C)= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A B) - P( C B) - P( A C)+ P(A B C)
=1/4 +1/3+ 1/4 -1/6 1/8 -0+0 = 13/24
11. For married couple in Lehigh Valley, the probability that the husband will vote in the
next election is 0.5. The probability that the wife will vote is 0.4. The probability that
both will vote is 0.1. Find the probability that
a) at least one member of the couple will vote?
b) a wife will vote given that her husband votes?
c) a husband votes given that his wife does not vote?
Solution: a) Let A denote husband will vote, B denote wife will vote
P(A)=0.5, P(B)=0.4, P(A B)=0.1
So P(A B) = P(A)+P(B) P(A B)=0.5+0.4-0.1=0.8
b) P(B|A)=P(A B)/P(A)= 0.1/0.5=0.2
c) P(A|B)=P(A)- P(A|B) = 0.5- 0.1/0.4 =0.25
12. If P(A|B) =0.5, P(B)=0.7, and P(A) =0.6 are events B and A independent? Prove it?
Solution: P(A B)= P(A|B) P(B)=0.5*0.7 =0.35
P(A)=1-P(A)=0.4
P(A)P(B)=0.28 P(A B)
So B and A are not independent.
13. A random experiment has sample space S={a,b,c}. Suppose that P ({a,c})=0.75 and P
{(b,c)} =0.6.
Find the probabilities of the elementary outcomes a, b,and c.
Solution P(a)=1-0.6=0.4, P(b)=0.25, P(c) =0.35

14. An experiment consists of observing the sum of the dice when two fair dice are
thrown. Find a) the probability that the sum is 7
b) the probability that the sum is greater than 10
Solution: a) totally there are 6*6 different kinds of numbers. To get the sum to be 7,
there are several combinations (1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)
P(the sum is 7) =6/36=1/6
b) For the sum is greater than 10, there are (6,6), (5,6), (6,5)
P(the sum is greater than 10) =3/36=1/12.
15.In a politically unstable country, it is not uncommon to find bombs on-board
passenger aircraft. On any given flight, it has been determined from experience that a
bomb will be on-board with probability 0.01. A nervous passenger always flies with an
unarmed bomb in his suitcase, thinking that the probability that there are two bombs onboard thus becomes 0.0001. The nervous passenger feels much safer doing this. Do you
agree with this reasoning? Why yes or why not?
Solution: This is an example of faulty reasoning. The nervous passenger is not taking into
account the idea of independent events, and is not considering the right event:
It is true that P(2 bombs on board)=(0.01)2 = 0.0001
But the event that matters is
P(terrorist bomb| nervous has bomb)=P(terrorist bomb)=0.01
Because the two events are independent