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Chile, monthly index of economic activity, IMACEC

by Eduardo Petazze
Last updated: January 5, 2016
In Nov15 the economy grew 1.78% YoY (-0.46% MoM), from +1.54% YoY in October 2015
In the 3Q2015 GDP grew 2.20% YoY (0.36% QoQ), from +1.92% YoY in 2Q2015
2015 growth of 2.07% (unchange from our previous estimate) is estimated from a 1.89% growth in 2014
2016 growth not exceeding 2.2% is estimated
Every month the Central Bank of Chile publishes the Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (Imacec), an estimate that
summarizes the activity of various economic sectors, being an approximation of the monthly evolution of Gross Domestic
Product (GDP).
Last press release:
November 2015's monthly index of economic activity, IMACEC pdf, 1 page
GDP 3 Q2015 pdf, 40 pages

Summary

2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Last data
Own estimate

GDP, NSA YoY


98.96 -1.04%
104.66 5.75%
110.77 5.84%
116.81 5.46%
121.75 4.23%
124.06 1.89%
126.62 2.07%
129.41 2.20%
131.43 1.56%

IMACEC 2008=100
GDP, SA YoY GVA, NSA YoY GVA, SA YoY
98.96 -1.04%
99.20 -0.80%
99.20 -0.80%
104.64 5.74%
104.27 5.12%
104.27 5.12%
110.67 5.75%
110.09 5.57%
109.98 5.48%
116.78 5.53%
115.95 5.33%
115.92 5.40%
121.82 4.31%
120.77 4.15%
120.83 4.23%
124.06 1.84%
123.18 1.99%
123.16 1.93%
126.62 2.07%
125.74 2.08%
125.73 2.09%
129.42 2.21%
128.52 2.21%
128.37 2.09%
131.44 1.56%
130.53 1.57%
130.49 1.65%

IMACEC 2008=100
GDP, NSA YoY GDP, SA QoQ GVA, NSA
2012Q1
112.14 4.84%
114.24 0.76%
111.66
2012Q2
116.15 5.81%
116.28 1.78%
115.56
2012Q3
114.96 5.80%
117.17 0.77%
113.96
2012Q4
124.00 5.38%
119.44 1.93%
122.65
2013Q1
118.20 5.40%
120.97 1.29%
117.58
2013Q2
120.81 4.01%
120.81 -0.13%
120.06
2013Q3
120.52 4.83%
122.79 1.64%
119.43
2013Q4
127.48 2.81%
122.70 -0.07%
126.00
2014Q1
121.38 2.70%
123.74 0.85%
120.67
2014Q2
123.32 2.08%
123.49 -0.20%
122.77
2014Q3
121.72 1.00%
123.92 0.35%
120.83
2014Q4
129.80 1.82%
125.07 0.93%
128.44
2015Q1
124.37 2.46%
126.38 1.05%
123.73
2015Q2
125.69 1.92%
126.23 -0.12%
125.15
2015Q3
124.39 2.20%
126.69 0.36%
123.43
2015Q4
132.03 1.72%
127.19 0.40%
130.66
2016Q1
128.17 3.06%
130.31 2.46%
127.50
2016Q2
128.15 1.95%
128.75 -1.20%
127.59
2016Q3
126.84 1.97%
129.00 0.20%
125.87
2016Q4
134.49 1.86%
129.60 0.47%
133.10
Last data GVA, SA is our own estimate
Provisional data
Own estimate
IMACEC 2008=100
GDP, NSA YoY GDP, SA MoM GVA, NSA
Jan-14
121.10 1.42%
123.09 0.56%
120.27
Feb-14
114.73 3.21%
124.08 0.80%
113.98
Mar-14
128.32 3.46%
124.05 -0.03%
127.75
Apr-14
124.15 2.17%
123.32 -0.59%
123.90
May-14
124.35 2.58%
123.97 0.53%
123.66
Jun-14
121.46 1.48%
123.19 -0.63%
120.75
Jul-14
121.83 0.86%
123.65 0.37%
121.18
Aug-14
122.19 0.50%
124.14 0.40%
121.14
Sep-14
121.14 1.64%
123.98 -0.13%
120.18
Oct-14
126.45 1.73%
124.61 0.51%
125.42
Nov-14
127.67 1.06%
124.72 0.08%
126.62
Dec-14
135.29 2.64%
125.88 0.93%
133.28
Jan-15
125.23 3.41%
127.17 1.03%
124.63
Feb-15
117.38 2.30%
126.27 -0.71%
116.56
Mar-15
130.49 1.70%
125.69 -0.46%
129.98
Apr-15
126.76 2.10%
125.88 0.15%
126.44
May-15
125.71 1.09%
125.95 0.06%
125.05
Jun-15
124.61 2.59%
126.86 0.72%
123.96
Jul-15
124.91 2.53%
126.95 0.07%
124.03
Aug-15
123.87 1.38%
125.91 -0.81%
122.80
Sep-15
124.39 2.68%
127.20 1.02%
123.45
Oct-15
128.40 1.54%
127.15 -0.04%
127.27
Nov-15
129.94 1.78%
126.57 -0.46%
128.95
Dec-15
137.75 1.82%
127.85 1.01%
135.75
Jan-16
127.58 1.87%
133.66 4.55%
126.97
Feb-16
123.90 5.56%
128.86 -3.59%
123.05
Mar-16
133.02 1.94%
128.42 -0.34%
132.50
Latest data GVA, SA is our own estimate
Note: Comparing the latest data released against previous estimate
Previous est.
129.99 1.82%
127.19 -0.13%
128.90
Difference
-0.05 -0.04%
-0.63 -0.33%
0.06
Own estimate

YoY GVA, SA
4.70%
113.53
5.74%
115.45
5.70%
116.22
5.19%
118.49
5.30%
120.05
3.90%
119.80
4.80%
121.79
2.74%
121.66
2.63%
122.70
2.26%
122.67
1.18%
123.18
1.93%
124.10
2.53%
125.38
1.94%
125.41
2.15%
125.93
1.73%
126.21
3.05%
129.06
1.95%
127.72
1.98%
127.88
1.87%
128.81

QoQ
0.75%
1.69%
0.67%
1.96%
1.32%
-0.21%
1.67%
-0.11%
0.86%
-0.03%
0.41%
0.75%
1.03%
0.02%
0.42%
0.22%
2.26%
-1.04%
0.13%
0.72%

YoY GVA, SA
1.27%
121.98
3.12%
123.08
3.48%
123.05
2.46%
122.57
2.72%
123.12
1.58%
122.32
1.10%
122.98
0.62%
123.35
1.83%
123.20
1.87%
123.69
1.07%
123.69
2.82%
124.92
3.63%
126.22
2.27%
125.23
1.74%
124.69
2.05%
125.03
1.13%
125.14
2.66%
126.06
2.35%
126.14
1.37%
125.18
2.72%
126.48
1.48%
125.47
1.84%
126.31
1.85%
126.85
1.88%
132.38
5.56%
127.62
1.94%
127.19

MoM
0.54%
0.90%
-0.02%
-0.39%
0.45%
-0.65%
0.54%
0.31%
-0.12%
0.39%
0.00%
1.00%
1.04%
-0.78%
-0.43%
0.27%
0.09%
0.73%
0.07%
-0.76%
1.04%
-0.80%
0.67%
0.43%
4.35%
-3.59%
-0.34%

1.80%
0.04%

126.21
0.10

0.48%
0.19%

2015Q2
799.8
3,503.8
2,873.9
1,063.2
2,045.0
3,155.0
2,122.6
1,888.6
8,426.0
1,198.1
26,872.3
2,617.4
29,489.8
19,478.6
3,668.3
6,726.1
-104.6
10,156.2
10,432.8

2015Q3
523.4
3,347.9
2,906.8
1,132.2
1,993.6
3,148.5
2,118.9
1,928.3
8,418.4
1,231.5
26,502.4
2,682.4
29,184.8
20,041.1
3,661.3
7,065.4
50.3
9,927.1
11,545.3

National Accounts Basic Breakdown of Main GDP Aggregates


2014
2015
2016
3,307.0
3,397.0
3,462.2
13,960.4 13,948.9 13,817.4
11,585.0 11,651.2 11,707.3
4,300.4
4,434.2
4,594.7
8,023.2
8,186.2
8,395.7
12,704.7 12,747.9 12,786.1
8,370.9
8,661.4
8,961.4
7,281.0
7,611.5
7,980.1
32,380.6 33,146.2 33,914.9
4,677.5
4,867.0
5,066.9
105,794.0 108,109.9 110,686.7
10,630.8 10,844.1 11,097.9
116,424.8 118,954.0 121,784.6
78,388.1 79,460.0 80,891.4
13,800.6 14,438.0 15,177.0
27,996.6 28,090.9 28,734.6
-588.5
-32.3
269.9
41,817.7 41,513.2 37,700.4
44,870.8 44,414.7 40,988.6
Latest data
Own estimate
2014
2015
2016
2.79%
2.72%
1.92%
1.34%
-0.08%
-0.94%
-0.32%
0.57%
0.48%
4.95%
3.11%
3.62%
1.53%
2.03%
2.56%
0.57%
0.34%
0.30%
3.77%
3.47%
3.46%
2.98%
4.54%
4.84%
2.65%
2.36%
2.32%
3.59%
4.05%
4.11%
1.99%
2.19%
2.38%
0.90%
2.01%
2.34%
1.89%
2.17%
2.38%
2.18%
1.37%
1.80%
4.42%
4.62%
5.12%
-6.11%
0.34%
2.29%
0.66%
-0.73%
-9.18%
-7.00%
-1.02%
-7.71%
Latest data
Own estimate

Chain linked volumes (2008), billion pesos NSA


Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas and Water
Construction
Wholesale, retail trade; accomodation and food service
Transport and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Business and Personal services
Public administration
Gross Value Added
Taxes less subsidies
Gross Domestic Product
Private final consumption expenditure
Government final consumption expenditure
Gross fixed capital formation
Inventories change
Exports
Imports

2015Q1
1,368.0
3,476.1
2,952.9
1,015.6
2,035.8
2,972.2
2,151.5
1,826.7
7,644.6
1,213.8
26,566.5
2,612.4
29,178.9
19,090.5
2,881.0
6,894.2
482.1
10,554.6
10,639.8

2015Q4
705.8
3,621.0
2,917.6
1,223.2
2,111.9
3,472.1
2,268.3
1,967.9
8,657.2
1,223.6
28,168.7
2,931.9
31,100.6
20,849.8
4,227.3
7,405.2
-460.2
10,875.3
11,796.8

Real annual growth rate


Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas and Water
Construction
Wholesale, retail trade; accomodation and food service
Transport and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Business and Personal services
Public administration
Gross Value Added
Taxes less subsidies
Gross Domestic Product
Private final consumption expenditure
Government final consumption expenditure
Gross capital formation
Exports
Imports

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4


6.00%
0.52% -0.38%
1.50%
3.26%
0.81% -3.00% -1.26%
-0.14%
0.23%
2.60% -0.33%
2.58%
1.12%
6.03%
2.68%
0.05%
2.74%
3.80%
1.65%
0.61%
0.72%
0.46% -0.34%
3.99%
3.21%
4.06%
2.69%
3.06%
4.96%
6.24%
3.89%
2.78%
2.37%
2.77%
1.61%
3.85%
4.27%
4.65%
3.45%
2.53%
1.94%
2.15%
2.14%
1.69%
1.75%
2.65%
1.94%
2.46%
1.92%
2.20%
2.12%
1.87%
1.53%
1.82%
0.32%
5.75%
4.01%
5.91%
3.30%
-2.07% -3.27%
7.11% -0.03%
1.31% -5.48% -0.95%
2.28%
-2.41% -5.40%
3.06%
0.51%

This table has not been updated with the monthly data for October and November 2015
Note: The monthly data for October and November 2015 indicate a slowdown in economic activity, yielding a stable estimate
of 2.07% growth in 2015 and a projection not exceeding the 2.2% growth for 2016
Also see:
Informes de Poltica Monetaria y de Estabilidad Financiera, Presentacin pdf, 35 pginas
China y su importancia para la economa chilena. Rodrigo Vergara pdf, 28 pages
Note: The Chinese economy has deepened slightly slower growth trend. In order to mitigate the effects of this
situation, in early 2016 the Central Bank of China has provided an additional monetary expansion, with
instruments similar to those used in 2015, which could result in the growth rate stabilized at a level of between
6.0% / 6.5% annually for the 2016/2017.
Outlook for (some) Emerging Economies. Sebastin Claro pdf, 16 pages
Los desafos que emanan de la coyuntura internacional pdf, 33 pages
Chile ndices de Produccin Industrial y Valor Agregado

Chile Desempeo y Perspectivas de la Economa en 2015