BES Tutorial Sample Solutions, S2 2010

It will be posted on BES website with one week

WEEK 8 TUTORIAL EXERCISES (To be discussed in the week starting
September 13)
1. A machine produces sausages with a mean length of 15cm and a standard
deviation of 1.5cm. A random sample is taken of 36 sausages made by the
machine. What is the probability that the sample mean length of these
sausages is greater than 14.8cm?

Let X lengthofsausage
X ?(15, (1.5) 2 )
Since n=36 is large we can invoke the central limit theorem
(1.5) 2
X N 15,
approximately
36

Then

14.8 15

P ( X 14.8) P Z
(
1
.
5
6
)

P ( Z 0.8)
0.5 P (0 Z 0.8)
0.5 0.2881 0.7881
2. Suppose a normally distributed random variable X has a mean of 50 and a
variance of 100. Also suppose a sample of size 16 is drawn from this
population. Calculate the following probabilities:
(a) P( X > 55)

55 50

P ( X 55) P Z

10

P ( Z 0.5) 0.5 0.1915 0.3085

(b)

55

X ~ N (50, 100 16)

55 50

P ( X 55) P Z
10 4

P ( Z 2 ) 0 .5 P ( 0 Z 2 )
0.5 0.4772 0.0228
(c)

P (40 X 55)

55 50
40 50
P (40 X 55) P
Z

10
10

P ( 1 Z 0.5)
P (0 Z 1) P (0 Z 0.5)
0..3413 0.1915 0..5328

(d)

P (40 X 55)

40 50
55 50

P (40 X 55) P
Z
10 4
10 4
P ( 4 Z 2 )
P (0 Z 4) P (0 Z 2)
0...5 0.4772 0.9772

3. If the random variable X in Question 2 above were not normally distributed,

which (if any) of the probabilities could still be validly calculated? Explain
your answer.
Without the normality assumption (a) and (c) could not be calculated.
Calculation of probabilities relating to X , ie (b) and (d) could still be
calculatedalthoughwewouldhavetorelyonthecentrallimittheorem.Asthe
sample size is relatively small this is problematic but obviously possible. The
textbooksuggeststhatmorethat30islargeforthepurposesoftheCLT,butit
dependsontheextentofthenonnormalityofthepopulationdistribution.

4. A pet food manufacturer produces cans of cat food with a nominal content
weight of 400 grams per can, however the can-filling machine yields a
content weight standard deviation of 20 grams. The cans are supplied to
wholesalers in boxes of 64 cans, and wholesalers require that the mean can
weight per box be at least 400 grams. To reduce the probability of a box of
cat food not meeting a wholesalers requirements, the machine is set to
produce a mean can content weight of 403 grams. Calculate the probability
that a randomly selected box of cat food does not yield a mean can weight
of at least 400 grams.
Let X weightofcaningramsthenX ?(403, ( 20) )
Since
n=64
is
large
by
the
central
2

limit

theorem

(20) 2
X N 403,
approximately&hence
64

400 403

P ( X 400) P Z
(
20
8
)

P ( Z 1.2)
0.5 P (0 Z 1.2 )

0.5 0.3849 0.1151

3

5. Recall the Anzac Garage data used in Week 3, Question 7. These data are
available from the course website in an EXCEL file called AnzacG.XLS to
be found on the Blackboard website in the Data area under item Anzac
garage data. Use these 117 observations on used passenger cars to find the
95% confidence interval for the population mean distance traveled by used
passenger cars (variable is denoted by odometer in the data set and is
measured in kilometers). Assume the population standard deviation is
60,000kms.
Sincen=117islargeweinvokethecentrallimittheorem

60,000 2
X ~ N , 117

atleastapproximately.

UsingEXCELwefindthesamplemeanis78,561kms

The95%confidenceintervalisgivenby

x z0.025

60,000
n
117
78,561 10,872
78,561 1.96

(67,689, 89,433)

The calculated interval is one of the possible realizations of the 95%

confidenceinterval.Inrepeatedsampling,95%ofintervalscalculatedinthis
waywouldcontainthetrue.
6. What would be the effects on the width of the confidence interval
calculated in Question 5 above of:
(a) a decrease in the level of confidence used?
Decreaseswidth
(b) an increase in sample size?
Decreaseswidth
(c) an increase in the population standard deviation?
Increaseswidth
(d) an increase in the sample standard deviation?
4

(e)

No effect on the width since we are told the population standard

deviation.
an increase in the value of x found?
Noeffectonthewidth

7. Again referring to the statistical population in Question 5 above, determine

the sample size required to estimate the population mean to within 5,000
kms with 90% confidence.

z / 2 z0.05 1.645, B 5,000, 60,000

Samplesizerequired

1 .645 ( 60 ,000 )
z
n /2
389 .67
B
5
,
000

Asamplesizeof390wouldberequired.