Clean Energy Trends 2011-Pike-Research

Clea
an En
nergy:
Ten
n Tren
nds to
o Watc
ch in 2011 and Beyo
ond
Publis
shed 2Q 2011
2
Pete
er Asmus
Senio
or Analystt
Clint W
Wheelock
k
Presidentt
Cle
ean Energy: Ten Tre
ends
to Wa
atch in 201
11 and Bey
yond
Se
ection 1
EXECUT
TIVE SUMMARY
1.1
Ten Trends to Wa
atch in Clea
an Energy
This wh
hite paper pre
esents ten key trends sha ping future m
markets for clean energy. While
the clea
an energy des
signation is ty
ypically synon
nymous with renewable so
ources of ene
ergy
solar, wind,
w
geotherm
mal, biomass
s and hydrokkinetic Pike
e Research a
also includes such
technolo
ogies as natu
ural gas-fired microturbine
es and nuclea
ar power, sincce these mayy also
qualify for
f the propos
sed Clean En
nergy Standa rd currently u
under consideration by the
e U.S.
Congres
ss. In most cases,
c
the tre
ends identified
d in this whitte paper build on existing
g Pike
Researc
ch syndicated
d reports and insights colle
ected from re
ecent custom research pro
ojects.
We hav
ve arranged them into three broad ca
ategories: 1) Global deployment trend
ds; 2)
global re
enewable energy insights; and 3) Chin
nas cleantecch growth and
d the future o
of the
nuclear industry.
A few overarching
o
themes
t
run through
t
this top trends a
analysis. Firsst, is a shift back
towards business structures and technologiess that were o
once abando
oned, but now
w are
being re
evived. Evide
ence of this can
c be seen with utilities becoming mo
ore involved again
with pow
wer generatio
on deploymen
nts, which run
ns counter to
o deregulation
n trends origin
nating
in the 1970s, with th
he most radic
cal shift in uttility roles occcurring within
n the solar ssector.
When itt comes to te
echnology, th
he growing p
popularity of d
direct currentt (DC) at botth the
micro-diistribution and
d high voltage
e transmissio
on levels of se
ervice is unexxpected and w
would
make Th
homas Edison proud. The
e second overrarching them
me evident in these top trends is
the incre
easing diversity of scale an
nd resources being deployyed within the
e renewable ssector,
a sign, no
n doubt, of th
he growing maturity
m
of thiss market segm
ment.
1.1.1
Global Deploymen
nt Trends
Investtor-owned utilities
u
returrning to ow
wnership/development off new renew
wable
generation: Solar photovoltaics
s (PV) in Caliifornia and offfshore wind projects in Europe
are two noteworthy examples.
omies of sca
ale: Power ge
enerators currrently being deployed in g
global markets are
Econo
increasing in size (e.g.,
(
wind turbines as larrge as 10 MW
W) and shrinkking in scale (e.g.,
modular nuclear rea
actors that co
ould power a shopping cen
nter, small bu
usiness comp
plex or
y).
a medium-sized city
ng power plants from trad
ditional terre
estrial sites tto marine sittes: Offshore wind,
Movin
hydrok
kinetic wave, and tidal gen
nerators are prime examp
ples; firms arre looking to install
solar PV
P onto floatin
ng structures at reservoirss, ponds, and other water-b
based sites.
The revival
r
of diirect currentt (DC) trans
smission an
nd distribution technolo
ogies:
Big-na
ame advocate
es are jumpin
ng on board tto support a proposed shift from altern
nating
curren
nt (AC) to dirrect current. Examples incclude Siemens and ABB
Bs major plays on
high-voltage DC trransmission in the North Sea to sup
pport offshore
e wind and Intels
pionee
ering efforts at
a developing DC-based miicrogrids.
2011 Pike Research LLC.

All Rights Reserved. This publication may be used only as
s expressly permitted by license from Pike Research LLC and m
may not otherwise be accessed or used, w
without the
esearch LLC.
express written permission of Pike Re
Cle
ean Energy: Ten Tre
ends
to Wa
atch in 201
11 and Bey
yond
1.1.2
Global Renewable
e Technology Trends
Greate
er diversifica
ation in the solar sectorr: Traditional polysilicon ssolar PV has been
the ma
ain focus for investors for decades. To
oday, SunPo
ower is the market leader within
this so
olar PV segment on panel efficiency, co
onverting 20%
% of the sunss solar energ
gy into
electric
city. Howeverr, the overall sector has be
ecome much more diverse
e, and First So
olar is
now th
he largest ma
anufacturer off thin film sola
ar PV panels due to its 11% efficiency rating
(compared to an av
verage of 6% for other thin
n film PV pan
nels). Concen
ntrated solar p
power
(CSP), also known as solar therrmal electric, is seeking a revival in the
e United Stattes as
well as
s northern Affrica and else
ewhere, boassting efficienccy levels that may exceed 30%.
Additio
onally, interes
st is growing for concentra
ated solar PV
V (CPV), whosse efficiency levels
match those of CSP
P.
er diversifica
ation in the wind
w
power s
sector: The w
wind industryy is offering greater
Greate
produc
ct diversity, bo
oth in terms of
o design and scale. Verticcal axis and tw
wo-bladed designs,
for exa
ample, are inc
creasingly be
eing produced
d for on-site d
distributed gen
neration as w
well as
large-s
scale bulk pow
wer utility app
plications for offshore marrkets. And for the first time
e, midsized turbines (100
0 kW to 1 MW) are vying
g for attentio
on from both policymakerss and
investo
ors, particularrly in the United States.
The business
b
of waste-to-ene
w
ergy power plants in Ch
hina, Europe
e, and the U
United
States
s: Hindered by the availability of cheap
p landfills, the
e United Stattes has not seen a
new domestic
d
waste-to-energy
y power plan
nt in roughly a decade. Chinas su
urging
popula
ation and was
ste generation
n are catapultting it to the to
op of the glob
bal market in terms
of was
ste-to-energy transformatio
on.
Geoth
hermal powe
er generation growth la
argely due tto state ren
newable porrtfolio
standa
ards (RPS) in the weste
ern U.S. Desspite remarka
ably low grow
wth in recent new
capaciity, the appea
al of renewable baseload p
power from geothermal so
ources continu
ues to
grow as
a renewables such as win
nd and solar ccontinue double-digit annu
ual growth. R
Rather
than firming up variiable renewab
bles with fosssil fuels, new geothermal ccapacity can d
do the
same job
j without in
ncreasing carb
bon emissionss.
1.1.3
Chinas Cleantech
h Growth and the Futu
ure of Nucle
ear Power
Are Chinas wind and solar power
p
growth
h rates susttainable? There are incre
easing
signs that the Chin
nese clean energy marke
et is experien
ncing growing
g pains. Last year,
China represented
d the top wind market i n the world. However, due to a la
ack of
transm
mission, a larg
ge percentage
e of the counttrys installed turbines never sold their o
output
into the market. Ad
dditionally, ma
any of the glo
obal corporattions that havve moved in tto this
region are frustrate
ed by China
as high dom
mestic contentt requiremen
nts. The quality of
Chines
se wind and solar produc
cts are also ffacing increa
ased scrutiny as manufaccturing
sectors consolidate
e.
n
pow
wer just miss the boa
at? The ea
arthquake in Japan, and
d the
Did nuclear
corresponding wors
st nuclear disaster in wo rld history, w
was just the tip of the ice
eberg;
increasing regulatory scrutiny and chang
ging politicall winds tha
at favor shrinking
govern
nment support may indeed spell the d
death of a tecchnology that appeared o
on the
verge of a major co
omeback in the worlds lead
ding nuclear m
market: the U
United States.

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esearch LLC.
Cle
ean Energy: Ten Tre
ends
to Wa
atch in 201
11 and Bey
yond
Se
ection 2
GLO
OBAL DEP
PLOYMENT TREND
DS
2.1
Utilities Back Into

o Key Renew
wable Enerrgy Markets
s
A shift toward relianc
ce on indepen
ndent power producers (IP
PPs) as the p
primary devellopers
of new power
p
plants particularly renewable e
energy and co
ogeneration fa
acilities hass been
underwa
ay since the U.S. Congrress passed the Public Utilities Regulatory Policcy Act
(PURPA
A) in 1976. However, th
he recent Wa
all Street me
eltdown and lingering financial
recessio
on hampered the rising tre
end toward ffinancing rene
ewable techn
nologies. The
e risks
associatted with large
e-scale comm
mitments to offfshore wind a
also prompted
d a greater reliance
on utilitie
es to help und
derwrite new capital intenssive projects iin Europe.
2.1.1
Utility-Owned, Utiility-Scale Solar

S
PV in California
The sola
ar PV market is booming, with
w 441 MW
W added in 201
10. While the U.S. market ranks
fourth in
nternationally,, the country is at the fore
efront of utilityy-scale projeccts. The majo
ority of
these prrojects are be
eing developed by IPPs, but investor-o
owned utilitie
es are financing an
increasing share of la
arger systems
s that feed dirrectly into utility wholesale grids.
Solar PV
P has traditionally been viewed as a distributed
d generation technology. Initial
terrestria
al markets were
w
off-grid, remote comm
munities; residential roofto
ops followed.. With
the esta
ablishment of a federal pro
oduction tax credit of 30%
% in 2008, the
e market for largescale co
ommercial sy
ystems began to domina te overall ca
apacity additions in the U
United
States. After a brie
ef rise in costs
c
when demand sub
bsequently o
outstripped ssupply
(compou
unded by a raw
r
materials silicon shorttage), costs h
have dropped
d by 40% ove
er the
last seve
eral years. When
W
the fede
eral solar tax ccredits were extended to u
utilities, the m
market
for utility
y-scale solar PV
P finally took root.
California currently accounts for 1,717 MW (63
3%) of the tota
al utility-scale
e solar PV pip
peline.
It is one
e of the few sttates to autho
orize utility-ow
wned generattion (UOG) syystems. In facct, the
California Public Utilities Commiss
sion has auth
horized a total of 1,100 MW
W of UOG sysstems
for imple
ementation ov
ver the next fiive years:
Southe
ern California
a Edison: 500 MW; 1-2 MW
W projects p
primarily on ro
ooftops with a
annual
auction
ns that began
n in April 2010. Half of the
ese systems (250 MW) will be develop
ped by
IPPs, but
b will sell in
nto wholesale markets and be part of the
e utility rate b
base.
Pacific
c Gas & Elec
ctric: 500 MW
W; 1-20 MW projects primarily ground-mount sysstems
with an
nnual solicitattions that beg
gan in the firstt quarter of 20
011. Half of th
hese systemss (250
MW) will
w be develo
oped by IPPs
s, but will sel l into wholesale markets and be part o
of the
utility rate
r
base.
San Diego
D
Gas & Electric:
E
100 MW; 1-5 MW
W projects p
primarily ground-mount sysstems
with annual auction
ns pending final CPUC ap
pproval. The majority of tthese system
ms (74
MW) will
w be develo
oped by IPPs
s, but will sel l into wholesale markets and be part o
of the
utility rate
r
base.
Despite the fact thatt the utility-sc
cale solar PV
V market (inclluding UOG ssolar PV) is highly
concenttrated in one state (Califorrnia) and rep
presents a reccent market p
phenomenon, Pike
Researc
ch forecasts significant
s
gro
owth over the
e next five yea
ars. The best near-term be
ets for
both utillity-scale sola
ar PV and UO
OG projects a
are Colorado
o, Nevada, an
nd Arizona, th
hough
the Norttheast and So
outheast also represent via
able markets.

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Cle
ean Energy: Ten Tre
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to Wa
atch in 201
11 and Bey
yond
Chart 2.1
1
Utility
y-Scale Cumu
ulative Solarr PV Capacity
y, United Sta
ates: 2010-20
016
12,000
10,000
(MW)
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
(Sourrce: Pike Researrch)
2.1.2
Offshore Wind Po
ower in Euro
ope
In Europ
pe, pilot offshore wind projects develope
ed over the p
past decade h
have been fina
anced
largely by
b major Euro
opean utilities
s with strong balance shee
ets. Howeverr, as these projects
move in
nto the mainstream, othe
er sources off capital will be necessarry. Given tha
at the
utilities have other obligations
o
in terms of me
eeting the de
emands of th
heir regulated
d T&D
functions, the offshore wind indus
stry needs to
o find new so
ources of inve
estment in ord
der to
become
e sustainable.
The most significant utility playerr in the offsho
ore wind secctor is Vattenffall, a state-o
owned
utility ba
ased in Swed
den with rootts in wind po
ower technolo
ogy that date
e back to 198
80. Its
operatio
ons span well beyond Sw
wedens bord
ders, with cu
ustomers in D
Denmark, Fin
nland,
German
ny, Poland, the
t
United Kingdom,
K
the
e Netherlandss, and Belgiium. In 2005
5, the
compan
ny announced
d a strategic move into re
enewable ene
ergy and purrchased a ma
ajority
stake in
n the first com
mmercial offsh
hore wind farrm in Denma
ark. In 2008, Vattenfall invvested
approxim
mately $1 billion into the 300
3 MW Than
net offshore w
wind farm pro
oject near Margate,
Kent, in the United Kingdom
K
cu
urrently the la
argest operating offshore w
wind project in the
L
pla
ans call for Vattenfall
V
to b
become the la
argest offsho
ore wind deve
eloper
world. Long-term
and ope
erator in norrthern Europe
e. The comp
pany has sett a goal of increasing itss total
offshore
e wind capacitty by 3000% by 2030.
Today, virtually
v
every
y offshore win
nd project und
der developm
ment in Europe
e is financed by an
umbrella
a of compan
nies, which almost
a
alwayys includes a governmen
nt-owned financial
institutio
on as well as unregulated arms of large
e utilities, succh as Vattenfa
all. New sourcces of
financing are needed
d and utilities in southern Europe are lo
ooking for such opportunitties in
ming U.K. ma
arket.
the boom

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Cle
ean Energy: Ten Tre
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atch in 201
11 and Bey
yond
The market in the United States is largely drivven by develo
opers. Those
e with ties to major
a in the bes
st position to weather the current econ
nomic storm. IIn contrast, m
market
utilities are
dynamic
cs in Asia are
e influenced more by the nature of win
nd resources and availabiility of
proven offshore
o
wind
d turbine desig
gns than by re
edefining utility roles and ffinancial facto
ors.
Chart 2.2
2
Offsho
ore Wind Ins
stalled Capac
city, Base Sc
cenario, Worrld Markets: 2
2011-2017
80,000
0
Asia Pacific
70,000
0
Latin America
Eurrope
60,000
0
(MW)
Norrth America
50,000
0
40,000
0
30,000
0
20,000
0
10,000
0
2011
2012
201
13
2014
2015
2016
2017
2.2
Econom
mies of Sca
ale Trends
2.2.1
Biggerr Is Better
The general rule in
n renewable technologiess is to increa
ase size in order to inccrease
mies of scale. Bigger does
s seem to be
e better, thou
ugh the indusstry is littered
d with
econom
example
es of how win
nd shear and turbulence ccan still wreakk havoc on la
arger machine
es. To
date, ca
atastrophic failures have been
b
rare in tthe offshore w
wind power m
market, thoug
gh few
turbines
s greater than 5 MW have been
b
operatin
ng for more th
han a year.
To justiffy the high co
ost of infrastru
ucture and on
ngoing operattions and maintenance, the
e only
option is to make bigger
b
machines. The ge
eneral rule o
of thumb in terms of offfshore
ction is that something
s
tha
at costs $1 to
o build on land will cost $
$10 to build o
out at
construc
sea. Th
herefore, the best way to boost powerr production ((and profits) is to install a wind
turbine that
t
can gene
erate as muc
ch power as p
possible. Tha
at is, the costt to install a 3 MW
turbine does
d
not diffe
er significantly
y from the cosst to install a 5 MW or 6 M
MW turbine, orr even
a turbine
e of 10 MW; hence,
h
the pu
ush for larger and larger machines.

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Cle
ean Energy: Ten Tre
ends
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atch in 201
11 and Bey
yond
Figure 2.1
Clippe
er Winds 10 MW Britann
nia Offshorre Wind Desiign
(Sou
urce: Clipper Win
nd)
As addrressed in the
e previous se
ection, the sizze of solar P
PV projects iss also on the
e rise.
Beyond utility-scale solar
s
PV, com
mmercial-sca
ale systems a
are also burge
eoning, grow
wing in
populariity following the
t introductio
on of federal tax credits. C
Companies ssuch as SunE
Edison
and other power purchase agree
ement (PPA) companies a
also stimulated these ma
arkets.
The bun
ndling of tax
x incentives, combined w
with attractive leasing arra
angements, a
allows
custome
ers to install solar PV on large comme
ercial comple
exes without a
any major up
p-front
capital costs.
c
The larg
gest solar PV system to da
ate is 250 MW
W. Developed
d originally byy SunPower, it was
recently
y sold to NRG
G Energy. Ju
ust ten years ago, the mo
ost common ssize of a sola
ar PV
project was
w a residen
ntial rooftop sy
ystem in the 2 to 5 kilowattt range.
2.2.2
Small Is Beautiful
Perhaps
s the most surprising evolu
ution in powe r generation technology iss the downsizzing of
nuclear reactors, power plants with
w
central sttation design
ns that only m
made sense when
developed as large-s
scale enterpriises. Nuclearr facilities havve traditionally been amon
ng the
largest power
p
plants in the world, second only to hydroelecttric facilities. While there a
are no
modula
ar nuclear rea
actors currenttly in commerrcial operation
n, the nuclearr industry is to
outing
these sm
maller-scale systems
s
on th
he basis of ssmaller capita
al outlays. Their modularityy may
make th
hem ideal for smaller
s
scale
e capacity add
ditions at exissting nuclear reactor sites. Even
the San Francisco Bay
B areas Ste
ewart Brand, the utopian tthinker behind the Whole Earth
ation nukes, kknown
Catalog, now counts himself among the advoccates of distrib
buted genera
within th
he industry as
a small mod
dular reactorss (SMRs). So
outh Carolina
a appears to be a
leading candidate fo
or the installation of a pilo
ot project a
at the Savann
nah River Na
ational
Laborato
ory utilizing
g a new desig
gn by Hyperiion Power Ge
eneration, a ffirm based in
n New
Mexico.
Whether SMRs will be
b easier to site
s or will me
eet with grea
ater resistancce due to con
ncerns
about vu
ulnerability to terrorist attac
ck particula
arly if sited an
nd constructed
d within popu
ulation
centers, as is the cas
se with other distributed
d
ge
eneration tech
hnologies re
emains to be seen.
Some SMRs
S
are still quite large; a new light wa
ater reactor o
offered by Bab
bcock & Wilco
ox, for
example
e, features a capacity
c
of 12
25 MW, enou gh power for a medium-sizzed city.
Biomass
s facilities als
so appear to be
b getting sm
maller. Todayy, these facilitties focus mo
ore on
thermal energy servic
ces, such as heat in the N
Northeast and
d Midwest ma
arkets of the U
United
States, than on elec
ctricity generration. If therre are incenttives to shiftt from fossil fuels,
n be an appe
ealing alterna
ative to coal--fired or even
n natural-gass fired
burning biomass can

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Cle
ean Energy: Ten Tre
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atch in 201
11 and Bey
yond
heat. Ho
owever, the cost of fuel collection from ssmall sourcess is high, so e
economies off scale
actually work in reverse, with sma
all facilities re
elying on regio
onal sources of fuel to min
nimize
fuel colle
ection and tra
ansportation costs.
c
Fossil fu
uel technolog
gies are not im
mmune to the
ese reverse-sscale trends. Diesel generators
have be
een a mainsttay for emerg
gency backup
p and remote power, butt the hottest small
fossil fue
el generator today
t
is the microturbine,
m
w
which may allso be able to
o combust bio
omass
and was
ste fuels. Due
e to low emiss
sions, they ca
an be sited in
n urban areas within comm
mercial
complex
xes, creating new markets for micro-gen
nerators.
2.3
Moving
g from Trad
ditional Terrrestrial Site
es to Marine
e Sites
2.3.1
Offshore Wind Po
ower
Why wo
ould developers, manufactu
urers, govern ments, and in
nvestors want to move offsshore,
where the deployme
ent challenge
es for renewa
able energy ssources are so much gre
eater?
There is
s no single an
nswer. Many of the best la
and-based re
enewable reso
ource sites lo
ocated
close to urban deman
nd centers ha
ave already b een develope
ed, and the re
emaining sitess may
involve additional co
osts associate
ed with build ing long disttance transmission lines. Siting
concern
ns, particularly
y wind powers impact on birds and batts, have also delayed traditional
terrestria
al projects, pa
articularly in the
t United Kin
ngdom and U
United States.
Due to the
t significant build-outs of
o the past an
nd population density in Eu
urope, the mo
ove to
offshore
e wind is prim
marily based on a lack o
of available o
onshore sitess. With clear legal
mandate
es to reduce
e carbon emiissions throu
ughout the European Union (EU), an even
greater emphasis is
s being placed on large--scale mega
a-projects. Grreater coope
eration
between
n European countries on transmission
n issues in the North Se
ea will be viital to
achievin
ng the EUs ca
arbon-reduction goals with
h offshore win
nd turbines.
Europe has been op
perating offsh
hore wind turb
bines for nea
arly a decade
e. Denmark, which
already obtains more
e than 25% of
o its total ele
ectricity from wind power, is a key pio
oneer.
Nevertheless, the Un
nited Kingdom
m is the curre
ent market le
eader in the rregion. Germa
any is
also com
ming on stron
ng, despite its
s limited coasst on the Nortth Sea. Howe
ever, the long
g-term
offshore
e wind movem
ment is not lim
mited to Euro pe. In fact, P
Pike Research
hs market forrecast
shows that Chinas offshore
o
wind market will b
be even with Europes larrgest players the
U.K. and
d Germany -- by 2017.
2.3.2
Hydrok
kinetic Tech
hnologies
The United Kingdom
m is also in th
he lead in hyydrokinetic te
echnologies ssuch as those
e that
se of wave and tidal motio
on. Being an island, the U
United Kingdo
om may enab
ble the
make us
development of these
e emerging re
enewables byy allowing them to piggy-ba
ack on the offfshore
wind transmission inffrastructure being deployed
d.
While th
he total insta
alled capacity
y of emergin g second g
generation m
marine hydrokkinetic
resource
es a catego
ory that includ
des wave, tida
al stream, oce
ean current, o
ocean therma
al, and
river hyd
drokinetic res
sources was
s less than 1 0 MW at the end of 2008, a recent surge of
osity, particularly in the U
interest in these opttions has gen
nerated a de
eepening curio
United
a, Australia, New Zealand
m, Ireland, the
e United Stattes, Portugal,, South Korea
d, and
Kingdom
Japan. It
I is expected
d that within the
t next five tto eight yearss, these eme
erging technologies
will beco
ome commerrcialized to the point that tthey can begin competing for a share of the
burgeon
ning market fo
or carbon-free
e and non-pollluting renewa
able resource
es.
han 100 firm
In terms
s of emerging technologie
es, hundredss of designs from more th
ms are
competing for attention. Most of these
t
firms a
are smaller sttartups. How
wever, a few larger

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Cle
ean Energy: Ten Tre
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atch in 201
11 and Bey
yond
players Scottish Po
ower, Lockhe
eed Martin, an
nd Pacific Ga
as & Electric are also se
eeking
es in the marrine renewablles space. Oiil companies Chevron, BP
P, and
business opportunitie
Shell arre also inves
sting in the sector.
s
And fformer wind entrepreneurrs such as JJames
Dehlsen
n formerly with
w Zond Sys
stems, Enron Wind and Clipper Wind -- are now lookking to
deploy wave
w
and ocean current devices.
d
The Gulf Stream
m just off the coast of Florrida is
perhaps
s the most appealing
a
of marine hyd
drokinetic opp
portunities, ssince it is a 24/7
renewab
ble resource, but is also th
he ocean ene
ergy option th
hat is the furth
hest away fro
om full
commerrcial deployments.
While Europe
E
is clea
arly in the lea
ad, North Am
merica also h
has tremendo
ous wave and
d tidal
potentia
al. Of all state
es, Oregon lea
ads in terms of wave pow
wer deployment; Maine lea
ads on
tidal.
Figure 2.2
Wave and Tidal En

nergy Potenttial, North Am
merica
ential
Tidall Energy Pote
Wave Energ
gy Potential
(Source: EP
PRI)
2.3.3
Floatin
ng Solar PV
Perhaps
s the most surprising
s
tren
nd in deployying renewab
bles on water is the adve
ent of
floating solar arrays.. Only a hand
dful of firms are active in
n this new tre
end: SPG So
olar of
Novato, Calif. has ins
stalled two su
uch projects o
on ponds for California wineries; Sunergy of
Australia
a has signed a deal with Indias largesst private utility, Tata Pow
wer, to build a pilot
project on a hydroellectric reserv
voir near Mum
mbai; and So
olaris Synerg
gy of Israel iss also
engaged
d in a trial dem
mo with the French
F
utility E
EDF on a res ervoir in the ssouth of Francce.
2.4
Direct Current T&

&D Systems
s May Trans
sform Clean
n Energy Markets
Ironically
y, todays utility
u
grid ev
volved to an
n AC-based grid worldw
wide because
e this
technolo
ogy could carry power bettter over long d
distances tha
an low-voltage
e DC, a techn
nology
Thomas
s Edison was promoting be
efore the elecctric utility ind
dustry matured
d into a mono
opolybased business
b
mod
del. In fact, Edisons
E
first power plantss were all esssentially DC-b
based
microgriids, each serv
ving only a sm
mall number o
of customers with low-volta
age power.
The ide
ea of switchin
ng back to DC-based
D
miccrogrids is picking up support among
g both
emergin
ng entreprene
eurs and gian
nt IT firms. A
Among the mo
ore advanced
d small vendo
ors of
DC-base
ed microgrid
ds is ZBB Energy Corp
poration. In 2010, the firm signale
ed its

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ean Energy: Ten Tre
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atch in 201
11 and Bey
yond
commitm
ment to micro
ogrids by offe
ering a paten
nt-pending mo
odular Powerr & Energy C
Control
Center (PECC), whic
ch features a configurable
e architecture
e that can co
onnect multiple AC
and DC
C power so
ources directtly to DC e
energy stora
age units, in
ncluding battteries
manufac
ctured by its competitors.
c
This unique storage-base
ed approach enables end users
to tap in
nto a variety of storage devices to enh
hance microg
grids. Having
g a DC-bus m
means
that die
esel generato
ors no longerr have to folllow load, an
nd storage serves as a sshock
absorbe
er for the microgrid. The
e limitation i s having only one-way p
power flow. ZBB
highlightts a proposed
d PECC proje
ect powering an elevator ssystem at the
e Pualani Manor in
Honolulu
u, Hawaii, wh
here the DC microgrid
m
is prrojected to red
duce electricity costs by 40
0%.
Figure 2.3
3
DC Sy
ystems Alrea
ady Proliferatte in Todays
s Home Enviironments
(Source: Intel)
Cutting-edge researc
ch is underwa
ay at Intels New Mexico Energy Systtems Researrch on
the viab
bility of DC-based microgrids. These microgrids lo
ose less ene
ergy, making them
more effficient, and are
a more com
mpatible with e
emerging sto
orage devicess (the weak link for
current microgrids). While Intel freely acknow
wledges the path back tto a DC-dom
minant
t
literally a century, it a ppears this trransition is alrready underw
way.
electricitty grid could take
Ironically
y, Edisons vision
v
of a DC
C-based elecctric power sttructure lost o
out to his arcchrival
Nikola Teslas
T
AC, despite
d
an in
ntense propa
aganda camp
paign that ma
ade fun of T
Teslas
reputatio
on as a mad scientist. Off all of Teslass futuristic invventions, AC was really the
e only
one to gain
g
wide com
mmercial succ
cess.
Today, high-voltage direct curren
nt (HVDC) te
echnology rep
presents a tra
ansmission cchoice
that offe
ers superior service over long distancces when co
ompared to A
AC systems. If the
power has
h
to be trransmitted more than 50 miles offsho
ore, HVDC is the only vviable
transmis
ssion cable option.
o
Note the
t
significan
nt line losses that occur w
with both overhead
lines an
nd sea cables when relying exclusive
ely on todayss widespread
d AC transmission
infrastru
ucture, as dep
picted in Figurre 2.4.

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ean Energy: Ten Tre
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atch in 201
11 and Bey
yond
Figure 2.4
4
Comp
parisons of Line Losses between
b
AC and DC Tran
nsmission Ca
ables
(Source: AB
BB)
The grow
wing level of interest in HV
VDC stems fro
om the follow
wing developm
ments:
Advan
nces in powe
er electronics
s originating from the ind
dustrial secto
or (electric d
drives,
proces
ss plants, an
nd mass tran
nsit traction systems) ha
ave now bee
en adapted tto the
so-callled electricity transmission
n and distributtion (T&D) ind
dustry.
Some of the same kinds of power electronicss innovations occurring witth PCs, iPodss, and
other consumer gadgets
More
g
hav
ve occurred within large
er industrial systems.
specifiically, computters and softw
ware systemss that create a
algorithms tha
at enable rea
al-time
decisio
on-making witthin nanoseco
onds are now
w infiltrating m
modern powerr grids.
AC tra
ansmission sy
ystems suffer line losses that can rang
ge from 10% tto 15%. HVDC line
losses
s are closer to
o just 2%.
HVDC
C systems are
e 100% contro
ollable: the po
ower will onlyy go where yo
ou want it to go. In
contrast, AC syste
ems sometim
mes flow in unpredictablle ways, a characteristicc that
contrib
butes to rollin
ng blackouts or brownoutss. In this wa
ay, HVDC sysstems can acct like
firewallls, limiting grid disturbance
es to a small geographicall area.

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ean Energy: Ten Tre
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yond
Se
ection 3
GLOBALL RENEWA
ABLE ENERGY TR
RENDS
3.1
Greate
er Diversific
cation withiin the Solarr Sector
While th
he sun offers 10,000 times
s more radiattion energy th
han the world
d actually nee
eds as
primary energy, the full
f portfolio of installed ssolar energy ttechnologies provides lesss than
0.1% of the worlds to
otal supply.
Solar ph
hotovoltaic (P
PV) systems can be insta
alled virtuallyy anywhere, a
and have be
ecome
quite po
opular with the
e general pub
blic and inves tors. As noted
d previously, applications range
from sm
mall distributed residential rooftops, to large comme
ercial on-site power generration,
and mos
st recently, uttility-scale wholesale powe
er plants.
The worrlds largest solar
s
PV mod
dule producerr is now Firstt Solar Inc., w
which differen
ntiates
itself fro
om the majoritty of PV manufacturers byy developing tthin-film solarr PV. Although less
efficient than the majority of products on the m
market, thin-fiilm solar PV is also less ccostly.
First So
olar has been
n a leader in moving dow
wn the supplyy chain throu
ugh acquisitio
ons to
become
e vertically inttegrated, allow
wing it to botth supply pan
nels and then
n develop pro
ojects.
This is exemplified by
b First Solars acquisition
ns of OptiSo
olar, a develo
oper of utility--scale
projects, and Turner Renewable
e Energy, a provider of e
engineering, procurementt, and
construc
ction (EPC) services
s
aime
ed particularlyy at reducing
g balance-of-ssystem costs. First
nance providers as well a
Solar also partners with
w investors
s and other fin
as companiess such
as Juwi,, EDF Energie
es Nouvelles,, and enXco.
Beyond this diversification on the
e solar PV sside is the ap
pparent revival of concentrated
solar power (CSP) technologie
es, which arre experienccing a come
eback after initial
commerrcial installations in south
hern Californi a deserts in the 1980s. CSP technologies
require higher conce
entrations of solar
s
fuel tha
an solar PV ssystems beca
ause they can
n only
generate
e electricity from direct-be
eam radiation
n, not more d
diffused light. Although effficient,
direct so
olar electricity
y production is basically re
estricted to th
he sun belt of the world, (i.e.,
the region situated between 15
5 to 35 lattitude in botth the northern and sou
uthern
hemisph
heres). This is
s the area witth the largestt increase in e
energy demand, and it hap
ppens
to includ
de the United
d States De
esert Southwe
est region, in
ncluding Arizo
ona, New Mexico,
Nevada, Texas, Colo
orado, and Ca
alifornia.
Today, more
m
than 31
1 GW of CSP
P is in the pipe
eline in the U
United States,, including projects
slated for
f
California
a, Arizona, Nevada,
N
Col orado, New Mexico, Te
exas, and Hawaii;
however, the vast ma
ajority of thes
se power plan
nts will never be built. At present, 480 M
MW of
CSP pla
ants are up and
a running throughout
t
th
he United Sta
ates, with ano
other 1,347 M
MW of
CSP capacity under construction. By far, parab
bolic trough te
echnology is the market le
eader,
represen
nting 98% of operating cap
pacity and 70
0% of those fa
acilities now u
under construction.
The thre
ee primary typ
pes of CSP te
echnologies a
are:
Parabolic Troughs
s: This techn
nology consissts of large, U-shaped reflectors with oil or
water pipes runnin
ng through th
heir centers. These curve
ed mirrors tillt toward the
e sun,
ng the sunlig
ght to reach temperaturess as high as 750 degree
es Fahrenheitt. The
focusin
resultin
ng solar-pow
wered steam is integrate
ed with stea
am Rankine cycles to spin a
traditio
onal turbine and generate electricity.
e

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ean Energy: Ten Tre
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atch in 201
11 and Bey
yond
Powerr Towers: Also called ce
entral receive
ers, this apprroach relies o
on a series o
of flat
heliosttats that track
k the sun, but focus the rayys onto a sing
gle receiver lo
ocated near th
he top
of a ce
entral tower. Again,
A
the solar energy is concentrated
d to heat a flu
uid, such as m
molten
salt, which
w
can rea
ach temperatu
ures as high as 1,050 deg
grees Fahren
nheit. The ho
ot fluid
can create steam to
o spin a turbin
ne or can be sstored for late
er use.
dishes
Dish Stirling: Insttead of the troughs, thiss technology relies on a cluster of d
ged in a circle. These dis
shes reflect ssunlight into a single sma
all collector tthat is
arrang
mountted a short distance from the center o
of the cluster.. These syste
ems, like the solar
therma
al troughs, ca
an run on gas
seous fuels in the absencce of adequate solar fuel. They
are th
heoretically more
m
efficientt than parab
bolic troughss because th
hey have a more
sophis
sticated solarr tracking sy
ystem with ttwo axes ratther than jusst one long axis.
Howev
ver, companies promoting
g this techno
ology lack fin
nancing and consistently ffail to
meet project
p
milesttones. The drop
d
in solar PV prices m
may spell the doom of the
e CSP
option, and dish Stirling varieties
s represent th
he most risky of CSP choicces.
Chart 3.1
1
Conce
entrated Sola
ar Power Ins
stalled Capac
city, United S
States: 2010--2016
16,000
14,000
12,000
(MW)
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2
2010
20
011
Ba
ase Scenario
o
2012
2
2013
Averag
ge Scenario
2014
2015
2016
Aggress
sive Scenario
o
The ability to store solar powerr gives the power towerr CSP technology an inh
herent
advanta
age, which ma
ay make it the
e preferred C SP technolog
gy over the lo
ong term. Sincce the
levelized
d cost of ene
ergy (LCOE) can be reducced by 20% w
with thermal storage, it is clear
why gro
owing numberrs of developers are lookin
ng in this dire
ection. The company that holds
the mos
st promise forr succeeding in the curren
nt market for C
CSP technolo
ogy is power tower
ed by
developer BrightSource Energy of
o Oakland, C
Calif. The co
ompany has been bolstere
hevron, BP, Google,
G
and o
others. On Ap
pril 22, 2011, the companyy filed
investments from Ch
an IPO for
f $250 millio
on through Goldman Sach
hs, Citi, and D
Deutsche Bank.
Perhaps
s the most in
nteresting dev
velopment in solar is the merging of C
CSP and sola
ar PV
conceptts known as
s concentratting solar PV (CPV). The
e twist to this technology is that
lenses or
o mirrors concentrate sollar energy on
nto high-efficiiency solar P
PV cells. The main
attractio
on of this apprroach is that iti achieves effficiencies gre
eater than 40%
%. (In compa
arison,

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Cle
ean Energy: Ten Tre
ends
to Wa
atch in 201
11 and Bey
yond
the top polysilicon so
olar PV panell offered by S
SunPower Co
orporation is a
approximatelyy 20%
a
appears to be the te
esting ground
d for this verssion of solar p
power,
efficient.) California, again,
with the company Am
monix signing
g a 25 MW PP
PA with Southern California Edison. An
nother
promisin
ng sign is th
he partnership between JJohnson Con
ntrols, the U.S.-based bu
uilding
systems
s innovator, and Concentrix
x, a firm now owned by So
oitec.
At prese
ent, however,, existing CPV
V capacity is in the low do
ouble-digits. T
The challenge
e with
CPV is the
t need for more
m
sophisticated tracking
g and the req
quirement to m
manage highe
er site
tempera
atures, both of
o which introd
duce more co
omplexity and
d greater eng
gineering expe
ertise.
Those dynamics
d
can increase unc
certainty and costs if not m
managed prop
perly.
3.2
Greate
er Diversific
cation withiin the Wind Sector
Similar to
t solar powe
er, the wind market
m
is alsso undergoing
g considerablle diversificattion in
design as
a well as sca
ale. Considerr this: Virtuallyy every comm
mercial wind tturbine is bassed on
the clas
ssic Danish three-bladed
t
upwind desi gn. Howeverr, two-bladed
d and vertica
al axis
designs which were
e the most po
opular three to
o four decade
es ago are a
attempting to stage
a comeback. Two-blladed designs are being promoted du
ue to capital cost savingss. And
while ve
ertical axis de
esigns are being offered prrimarily at the
e small-scale end of the m
market
for on-site residential power, they are also fou nd at the extrreme other end of the market
in the fo
orm of 10 MW
W giants designed for offsho
ore power generation.
Here are
e some engin
neering factoids that show
wcase the evo
olution of win
nd turbine designs.
Two-bla
aded downwin
nd rotors which
w
domina
ated offeringss in the pastt are notorriously
noisy and
a
have hig
gh failure rates. To cou nter these d
drawbacks, N
Nordic Windp
power
introduc
ced a two-bladed 1 MW up
pwind turbine
e that claims reliability as one of its prrimary
advanta
ages over com
mpeting three--bladed desig
gns, explicitly marketing this reliability (d
due to
a remarkably simple turbine) to co
ommunities lo
ooking for selff-reliance (and
d those witho
out the
funds fo
or professiona
al operations and
a maintena
ance crews.)
Not everyone has giv
ven up on two
o-bladed down
wnwind rotors, however. Fo
or example, th
he B-2
Energy 6 MW mac
ed prototype
chine, the first two-blade
e designed for offshore wind
applications, is sched
duled to be installed in U.K
K. waters in 20
012.
It appea
ars that the best
b
applications for vertiical axis designs may be for on-site p
power
generatiion for skyscrapers or football
f
stadi ums, as eviidenced by the plans fo
or the
Philadellphia Eagles football stad
dium. The lattter example is one of th
he few high p
profile
installatiions to date of
o this new cllass of micro vertical axis designs. Hisstorically, the prime
drawbac
ck for residen
ntial applicatio
ons is the sa
ame drawback for this dessign: access tto the
best win
nd resources
s, which are almost alwa
ays at higherr elevations. That is why most
veteran wind power advocates sn
neer at these
e vertical desiigns for resid
dential use. In
n fact,
t practicalitty of vertical a
axis machines for any app
plication. Thatt view
many also question the
has not stopped Nen
nuphar of Lille
e, France from
m developing
g a 3.5 MW vvertical axis tu
urbine
for offsh
hore markets. A prototype
e is schedule
ed to be unve
eiled later thiss year. Coun
nter to
dominan
nt wind turbine topology, this design lacks a yaw
w system, pittch system, a
and a
gearbox
x. A 1/10 sca
ale 35 kW prrototype has been in ope
eration since March 2010
0 near
Boulogn
ne sur Mer.
In terms
s of scale, mo
ost turbines sold
s
today arre those with a generation
n capacity of more
than 1 MW
M for utility--scale wind fa
arms or those
e with 10 kW o
or less in cap
pacity, designed for
on-site power
p
genera
ation of homes, ranches an
nd farms in ru
ural areas. No
ow, mid-sized
d wind
turbines
s (which the National
N
Rene
ewable Energ
gy Lab definess as between
n 100 kW to 1 MW)
are attra
acting govern
nment support in the Unitted States. A
Aggregation p
platforms, such as
microgriids and virtua
al power plan
nts, are crea
ating incentive
es for community and reg
gional

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Cle
ean Energy: Ten Tre
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atch in 201
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yond
renewab
ble systems. Aggregate net metering
g is the keyy policy reform optimizing the
econom
mics of mid-sized power systems looki ng to share resources am
mong a hand
dful of
custome
ers.
A numb
ber of recent developmentts, including R&D supportt from the Na
ational Renew
wable
Energy Laboratory, bode
b
well for the long-term
m viability of m
mid-sized turb
bines, particullarly if
they are optimized for lower wind
w
speed cconditions by increasing the swept area.
Addition
nally, pay as you go finan
ncing program
ms will increa
ase the appea
al of these turrbines
for eme
erging markets in the developing worrld includin
ng remote re
egions of northern
Canada and southern
n Mexico.
Figure 3.1
M
for Norrth America, Average Sc
cenario: 2007
7-2015
Mid-Sized Wind Market
3.3
Waste--to-Energy Market: Ch
hina, Europe
e, and the U
United Stattes
The giga
antic amount of waste hau
uled to dumpss, accumulatiing in heaps and open pitss, has
become
e a major en
nvironmental issue. Landffilling is still the world's most widely used
method for managing
g and treating
g waste. Yet this practice
e has detrime
ental effects o
on the
environm
ment, includin
ng: land occu
upation, gree nhouse gas (GHG) emisssions, ground
dwater
pollution
n, odor, and aesthetics.
a
Trransforming tthese wastess into electricity and heat w
would
appear to
t be a noble solution.
Today, more than 90
00 thermal waste-to-energ
w
gy (WTE) pla
ants operate around the g
globe.
p
treat an
a estimated 0.2 billion to ns of municip
pal solid wasste (MSW) with an
These plants
estimate
ed output of 130 terawatt hours
h
(TWh) o
of electricity.

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ean Energy: Ten Tre
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atch in 201
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yond
Chart 3.2
2
Waste
e-to-Energy Revenue
R
by Region,
R
Worrld Markets: 2010-2016
$16,000
0
Ro
oW
$14,000
0
($ Millions)
As
sia Pacific
$12,000
0
Ea
astern Europ
pe
$10,000
0
W
Western
Europ
pe
No
orth America
a
$8,000
0
$6,000
0
$4,000
0
$2,000
0
$
$2010
2011
20
012
2013
2014
2015
2016
As Pike
e Researchs market forecast shows, Asia Pacificc is moving into the worldwide
leadersh
hip role in waste-to-energy
y revenue, tha
anks to surgin
ng populations and an atte
endant
growth in consumpttion (and wa
aste), as we
ell as less problematic siting and ccitizen
opposition dynamics to these often unpopular ttechnologies.. Although Ja
apan is expeccted to
add 20 new WTE plants per yea
ar throughout the forecast period and beyond (due to its
dense population
p
an
nd lack of rea
al estate), Ch
hina is the m
most attractive
e market for WTE
worldwid
de. Strong driivers reinforciing the growth
h of the WTE
E market in Ch
hina include:
Massiv
ve urban grow
wth and daun
nting MSW g
generation. Th
he United Na
ations expectts that
1 billio
on people will live in cities
s in China by 2050. MSW generation h
has increased
d at a
rate off 8% to 10% per year. China generattes 150 millio
on tons of MS
SW yearly. T
This is
expectted to grow to
o 210 million tons
t
by 2015..
Government policie
es to supporrt the develo
opment of te
echnologies fo
for the sound
d and
sustain
nable treatme
ent of MSW and the producction of renew
wable energyy. China recog
gnizes
WTE as a renewa
able and alte
ernative sourrce of energ
gy. Specific W
WTE laws in
nclude
subsid
dies and a corrporate tax ex
xemption for ffive years of o
operation.
China needs massiive sources of
o energy to ssustain its gro
owth. The cou
untry is amon
ng the
top two consumers of energy in the world. W
Waste can beccome a strate
egic energy ssource
to tack
kle energy dependency and availability.
Policies, regulations, and rules have had a fundamentall impact on the evolution
n and
structure
e of the WTE
E market. For example, the
e Landfill Dire
ective of the E
EU has acted
d as a
strong driver
d
for ma
arket growth, where close
e to 400 WT
TE plants supplied 30 TW
Wh of
electricitty and 55 TW
Wh of heat in 2009.
2
About 5
50% of the energy is conssidered renew
wable
energy. The electricity supply was sufficie nt for powe
ering 8 millio
on household
ds. In
Denmarrk, roughly 40
0% of its renew
wable energyy comes from WTE.

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15
Cle
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atch in 201
11 and Bey
yond
At prese
ent, there are only 86 WTE
E facilities ope
erating in 24 sstates acrosss the United S
States,
primarily
y concentrate
ed on the Eas
st Coast. Lackk of available
e land is one important driver of
the MSW
W market in the more densely popula
ated eastern sstates, as ha
as been incre
easing
attention
n to the signifficant quantity
y of methane
e gas released
d from landfillls. On a mole
eculeby-mole
ecule basis, methane
m
is 40
0 times more powerful as a greenhousse gas than ccarbon
dioxide, the focus of
o most clima
ate change m
mitigation effo
orts. All of th
hese factors have
conspire
ed to encoura
age utilities and
a power pla
ant developerrs to take another look at WTE
power generation.
g
Yet even the leading
l
deve lopers of WT
TE in the United States arre not
optimistic about new facilities com
ming on-line w
within the nexxt several yea
ars in the abssence
of cleare
er governmen
nt policy supp
port.
3.3.1
Geothe
ermal on a Comeback
k in United States Tha
anks to Wes
stern State RPS
Laws
Technollogies for exp
ploiting geothermal resourrces can provvide sizeable baseload po
ower
with cap
pacity factors in the 90% range,
r
accord
ding to the N
National Rene
ewable Energy Lab
(NREL).. Yet, market developmentt has been slow due to the
e unique challenges assocciated
with geothermal res
sources. The
ese include tthe uncertain
n geologic b
behavior and high
tempera
atures linked to these reso
ources, which
h, in turn, req
quire specific knowledge shared
with alm
most no othe
er power-gen
nerating tech
hnology secttor. Even in project feassibility
studies, there is a 75% chance of
o failure duriing geotherm
mal well explo
oration and drilling,
which bu
uilds huge co
osts into project budgets.
California is the strongest markett for geotherm
mal energy in
n the United States; Neva
ada is
closing the
t gap with more than 3,200 MW of ccapacity unde
er current devvelopment. A
Across
15 state
es, 188 geoth
hermal projec
cts are being
g developed, with the pottential to triple the
current installed
i
capa
acity in the Un
nited States. A
All told, these
e projects con
nstitute as mu
uch as
7,875 MW
M of new ge
eothermal ene
ergy capacity . These proje
ections compa
are to the esttimate
of 25,00
00 MW of new geotherma
al capacity th at, in an idea
al world, could come on-line to
help utilities comply with
w state RPS
S targets esta
ablished in the western Un
nited States.
Table 3.1
1
U.S. Geothermal
G
Capacity
C
by State:
S
2010-2
2020
Region
Ala
aska
California
Colorado
Haw
waii
Ida
aho
Lou
uisiana
Mis
ssissippi
Nevada
New
w Mexico
Ore
egon
Tex
xas
Uta
ah
Wy
yoming
Tottal
Un
nits
(MW
W)
(MW
W)
(MW
W)
(MW
W)
(MW
W)
(MW
W)
(MW
W)
(MW
W)
(MW
W)
(MW
W)
(MW
W)
(MW
W)
(MW
W)
(MW
W)
2010
0.7
2,565.5
2
0.0
35.0
15.8
0.0
0.0
433.4
2.0
0.3
0.0
42.0
0.3
3,095.0
3
2015
25.7
3,365.5
10.0
43.0
265.8
5.3
0.1
1,633.4
27.0
150.0
0.4
392.0
0.3
5,918.5
2020
50.7
4,300.0
20.0
51.0
515.8
10.6
0.2
2,833.4
52.0
326.0
0.8
742.0
0.3
8,902.8
CAGR
(2
2010 - 2020)
53.5%
5.3%
N/A
3.8%
41.7%
N/A
N/A
20.7%
38.5%
101.2%
N/A
33.3%
0.0%
11.1%

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yond
In a bu
usiness-as-usual, base ca
ase scenario,, Pike Resea
arch forecastts that the U
United
States will
w add 2,313 MW of geoth
hermal capaccity by 2015. Over the nexxt decade, a to
otal of
5,816 MW
M is forecas
st to come on-line, represe
enting a still rremarkably low CAGR of 5
5.44%
for the period
p
of 201
10-2020. Bre
eakthroughs in drilling tecchnology, as well as conssistent
governm
ment subsidie
es and legisla
ative supportt for renewab
bles at the fe
ederal level, could
increase
e this rate.
In the ab
bsence of sta
ate RPS polic
cies, the geoth
hermal marke
et in the Unite
ed States wou
uld be
bleak. These
T
state po
olicies are now
w driving inve
estment in ne
ew transmissio
on, which is vvital to
geotherm
mal developm
ment since viirtually all ge
eothermal ressource areas are remote. Often
describe
ed as the c
crown jewel of renewab le resource regions in C
California, Im
mperial
ermal sites b
County is notable no
ot only for its prime geothe
but also for so
ome of the w
worlds
best solar resources, as well as significant
s
win
nd capacity. After conside
erable controvversy,
w under construction, ultiimately conne
the Sun
nrise Powerlin
nk transmissio
on line is now
ecting
this rich
h renewable resource
r
bas
sin includin
ng four new g
geothermal p
power plants being
developed by CalEne
ergy with loa
ad centers in San Diego.

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atch in 201
11 and Bey
yond
Se
ection 4
CHIN
NAS CLE
EANTECH
H GROWT
TH
AND THE
E FUTURE
E OF NUC
CLEAR PO
OWER
4.1
Is Chin
nas Wind Power Grow
wth Rate Sus
stainable?
By 2020
0, the Chines
se governmen
nt plans to o
obtain 15% off the nationss total energyy from
fossil fuel alternative
es, such as wind
w
and sola
ar power. To
oday, China is the largestt wind
on several fro
power market
m
in the world, but is experiencing
g a backlash o
onts. For exa
ample,
the coun
ntry is now im
mposing new quality stand
dards to weed
d out smaller companies w
whose
products
s have sufferred from qua
ality control, and is conce
entrating man
nufacturing a
among
larger, more
m
establis
shed firms. Furthermore,
F
European m
manufacturerss that entere
ed the
Chinese
e wind power market, such
h as the Span
nish companyy Gamesa, ha
ave been una
able to
generate
e the revenu
ues they had
d anticipated. This is larg
gely due to C
Chinas strictt local
content rules that re
equire 70% of
o all compo
onents to be manufacture
ed by its dom
mestic
supply chain.
c
In whatt has now bec
come a famil iar tale, foreig
gn manufactu
urers try to ba
alance
the pros
s and cons of
o doing busin
ness in a ma
arket that is cclearly tilted ttoward maxim
mizing
returns for
f China and
a not foreign internationa
al corporation
ns. There are inevitable wiinners
and lose
ers.
In 2010
0, China incre
eased its tota
al wind powe
er capacity tto 41.8 GW, up 62% from
m the
previous
s year. Howev
ver, for the firrst time since
e 2005, the co
ountrys growtth in wind pow
wer is
slowing due to the following:
G
fee
ed-in tariffs a nd mandatoryy grid access as a model, so far
While China used Germanys
ws have yet to be enforced.. In fact, it is e
estimated tha
at approximately 30% of Chinas
its law
installe
ed wind capa
acity has yet to
t be connectted to the griid and actuallly deliver valu
uable,
carbon
n-free electric
city.
Many of the PPA
As signed in
n China con
ntain grid cu
urtailment pro
ovisions thatt lack
compe
ensation, redu
ucing expecte
ed profits for d
developers.
Traditionally, subsidy payouts in
i most coun
ntries occur o
on a monthlyy basis. In C
China,
noneth
heless, subsidies are paid out every six months, creating cassh flow issue
es for
develo
opers. This bi-annual
b
pay
yout makes i t particularly difficult to ffinance projects in
China when depend
ding on intern
national sourcces of credit.
One Chinese wind company stands out becau
use its making an impact on global ma
arkets,
particula
arly in the U.S
S. Goldwind Science & Te
echnology is the Chinese company with the
ment. A state
most so
ophisticated strategy for global wind po
ower developm
e-owned com
mpany,
Goldwin
nd Science & Technology
y is impressin
ng wind indu
ustry veteranss with its superior
technolo
ogy and creattive business approach. T he company appears to co
ombine the b
best of
all possible worlds: European
E
eng
gineering exp
perience, U.S
S. entrepreneu
urship and Chinas
ability to
o drive down technology
t
co
osts to the low
west possible levels.
Unlike other
o
success
sful Chinese wind
w
turbine ccompanies such as Sino
ovel Wind Grroup
Goldwin
nd is looking well beyond
d Chinas bo
orders for bu
usiness oppo
ortunities and
d has
launched a joint ven
nture in the United State
es. The comp
pany has insstalled its 1.5
5 MW
turbine in Pipestone Town, Minne
esota and ha s also signed
d a contract ffor a larger tu
urbine
delivery project (>106
6 MW) in Sha
ady Oaks, Illin
nois.

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The Chinese market for solar is, in
n many wayss, the inverse of its wind po
ower market, since
us has been placed on exporting
e
pro
oducts overse
eas rather th
han installing them
the focu
domestically. While this
t
is about to
t change, it a
appears that it will take another few yea
ars for
ar PV markett in China to
o reach anyw
where near th
he momentum
m the countrry has
the sola
witnesse
ed with wind power.
p
In the long term, so
olar PV shou
uld be a big hit in China
a. Since sola
ar PV is larg
gely a
y and can offe
er carbon-fre
ee power in la
arge swaths of the
distributted generation technology
country that currently
y lack a modern grid, its g
growth is les s impacted b
by grid issuess than
utility-sc
cale wind pow
wer projects. All told, Ch ina has set a goal of 5 G
GW of solar P
PV by
2015 an
nd 20 GW by 2020. Close observers su
uggest that C
China could easily exceed these
goals, particularly if solar
s
PV is inttegrated into n
new construcction in urban regions.
The boo
oming Chines
se economy allows
a
the so
olar industry a wide range of opportunitties in
both sca
ale and techn
nology. It cou
uld be that th
he problems with grid inte
erconnectionss now
plaguing
g wind powerr at the trans
smission leve
el open the d
door to a gre
eater emphassis on
distributted solar, a dy
ynamic that echoes Califorrnias situation over the pa
ast decade.
The rece
ent agreemen
nt between First Solar Inc.. and China P
Power Interna
ational New E
Energy
Holdings
s, Ltd. signals
s that China is looking forr help from m
major international players in the
solar ind
dustry. The move
m
by First Solar was al legedly due tto the predicte
ed falling-off of the
worlds leading Euro
opean solar market due to recession
n-induced be
elt-tightening. With
2 GW already in the pipeline, Firs
st Solar sees this partnersship with Chin
na Power as a key
entryway into what may
m become the next sola
ar boom targe
et. First Solar has also be
een in
negotiattions to cons
struct a new
w thin film so
olar manufaccturing plant in northern Inner
Mongolia.
Chinese
e manufacture
ers such as Suntech
S
Powe
er Holdings, Inc., which in
nstalled 80% of the
worlds solar PV capacity in 201
10, are refoccusing their market planss on the dom
mestic
Chinese
e market inste
ead of Europe
e, which has been the wo
orlds best solar PV market over
the pastt several yearrs.
4.2
Did Nu
uclear Powe
er Just Miss
s the Boat?
?
The serries of grave nuclear mish
haps at multip
ple reactors iin Japan thatt resulted from the
March 11
1 earthquak
ke and tsunami is still affe
fecting percep
ptions of nucclear power in the
United States
S
and around the wo
orld. Within th
he United Sta
ates, current political dynamics
from the
e right not th
he left may spell doom fo
or the power source that h
has been drap
ped in
green as of late due to concerns over global cclimate chang
ge. Presidentt Obama main
ntains
that the United State
es will plow $3
36 billion of fe
ederal taxpayyer money intto loan guara
antees
designed to revive a nuclear indus
stry on the ve
erge of a surp rising renaisssance.
Other nations
n
acros
ss the world, however, a
appear to be diverging frrom Obama, most
notably Germany, wh
hich derives a similar amo
ount of its tota
al electricity frrom nuclear p
power
ng out the tech
hnology for go
ood.
(23%), is now phasin
Supportt for nuclear power
p
hit an all-time
a
high in
n the United S
States exactlyy a year ago, when
a Gallup poll showe
ed that 62% of the gene
eral public su
upported nucclear power. Even
environm
mentalists su
uch as Stewa
art Brand, the
e Bay Area p
publisher of tthe counter-cculture
icon Wh
hole Earth Ca
atalog, tout nuclear plantss. Brand now tours the country, extollin
ng the
virtues of
o micro-nuke
es, which Bec
chtel of San F
Francisco also
o claims to be
e a vital part of the
answer to global clim
mate change.

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19
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And the
e U.S. federall governmentt, with encourragement from President Obama, has gone
so far as
s to redefine renewable energy stand
dards that alre
eady exist in more than ha
alf the
countrys states: New
wly proposed federal stan
ndards would focus on cle
ean energy rather
enewable, co
omprising a new
n
categoryy of technolo
ogies that includes both cclean
than re
nuclear and clean coal.
c
Even California, which has had a de facto b
ban on nucle
ear power for more than three
decades
s, has not been immun
ne to growin
ng internation
nal interest in nuclear p
power
generatiion. Areva, the giant French
F
state--controlled n
nuclear engin
neering firm, has
propose
ed a clean en
nergy park in Fresno, Califfornia that wo
ould feature itts latest gene
eration
nuclear plant, alongs
side solar and
d wind arrayss, highlighting
g the clever g
green sheen being
applied to next-generration nuclearr facilities.
The trutth of the mattter is that eve
en before the earthquake, utilities were
e shying awayy from
nuclear as a viable option in th
he United Sttates due to low natural gas prices, siting
concern
ns, and the ca
apital risks ass
sociated with a technologyy that had nott been deployyed on
U.S. soil in two decad
des. A few da
ays before the
e earthquake, the CEO of the largest nu
uclear
operatorr in the Unite
ed States tes
stified before Congress, rrecommendin
ng that the nu
uclear
loan gua
arantee program not be expanded
e
beyyond the $18
8.5 billion tha
at former Pressident
Bush ha
ad allocated.
While Obama
O
sticks up for nuclea
ar power, wha
at about the T
Tea Party far rright, the folkss who
claim they want to trrim governme
ent down? If yyou think abo
out it, there iss no power ssource
less com
mpatible with the GOPs lo
ove of free ma
arkets and dissdain for regu
ulation and su
ubsidy
than nu
uclear power. Virtually all of the cou
untries that d
derive the grreatest amou
unt of
electricitty from nucle
ear France,, Lithuania, U
Ukraine, Swed
den feature
e central plan
nning,
socialisttic energy pollicies. Ironically, it may be
e the Tea Parrty movementt in the Republican
Party that drives the ultimate stake
e in the heartt of the nuclea
ar industry in what has bee
en the
worlds top
t market historically.
Globally
y, there are 442 reactors up
u and runnin
ng, just over 100 in the Un
nited States. While
reactors
s have been under
u
constru
uction in Rus sia, China, In
ndia, and Bra
azil, the techn
nology
appears
s to be dead in Europe. Japan, too, wass building mo
ore nuclear reactors, but po
olitical
support has evapora
ated in light of
o recent reve
elations about nuclear meltdowns. How
wever,
the coun
ntry now seem
ms poised to re-focus its e
efforts on rene
ewable option
ns. Once the world
leader on
o solar PV technologies
s, Japan is n
now looking toward large
er-scale altern
native
answers
s, such as offs
shore wind.

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ection 5
ACRON
NYM AND
D ABBREV
VIATION LIST
Alternating Current ................................................................................................................................ AC
C
Concentra
ated Solar Ph
hotovoltaics ......................................................................................................... CP
PV
Concentra
ated Solar Po
ower .................................................................................................................... CS
SP
Direct Current ........................................................................................................................................ DC
C
High-Volta
age Direct Cu
urrent ................................................................................................................. HV
VDC
P
Independe
ent Power Producers ............................................................................................................ IPP
Levelized Cost of Enerrgy ...................................................................................................................... LC
COE
Megawattt ............................................................................................................................................... MW
W
Photovolta
aic ........................................................................................................................................... PV
V
Power Pu
urchase Agree
ement ................................................................................................................ PP
PA
Renewable Portfolio Sttandards ............................................................................................................ RP
PS
Terawatt Hours ...................................................................................................................................... TW
Wh
Utility Owned Generation ...................................................................................................................... UO
OG

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ean Energy: Ten Tre
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11 and Bey
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Se
ection 6
TABLE OF
O CONTENTS
Section 1 .......................................................................................................................................................... 1
Executive
e Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 1
Ten Trends to
...................................................................... 1
1.1
t Watch in Clean
C
Energy ......................
.
1.1.1
1 Global De
eployment Trrends......................................................................................................... 1
1.1.2
2 Global Re
enewable Tec
chnology Trends ..................................................................................... 2
1.1.3
3 Chinas Cleantech
C
Gro
owth and the Future of Nucclear Power .................................................. 2
Section 2 .......................................................................................................................................................... 3
Global De
eployment Trends
T
............................................................................................................................ 3
2.1
Utilities Back
k Into Key Renewable Energy Markets ........................................................................ 3
2.1.1
1 Utility-Ow
wned, Utility-S
Scale Solar PV
V in California
a.................................................................... 3
2.1.2
2 Offshore Wind Power in Europe ................................................................................................. 4
Economies of
2.2
o Scale Trend
ds ............................................................................................................. 5
2.2.1
1 Bigger Is Better ........................................................................................................................... 5
2.2.2
2 Small Is Beautiful
B
........................................................................................................................ 6
2.3
Moving from Traditional Terrestrial
T
Site
es to Marine S
Sites .............................................................. 7
2.3.1
1 Offshore Wind Power ................................................................................................................. 7
2.3.2
2 Hydrokinetic Technolo
ogies ......................................................................................................... 7
2.3.3
3 Floating Solar
S
PV ....................................................................................................................... 8
2.4
Direct Curren
nt T&D Systems May Tran
nsform Clean Energy Markkets............................................ 8
Section 3 ........................................................................................................................................................ 11
Global Re
enewable En
nergy Trends
s ............................................................................................................... 11
3.1
Greater Dive
ersification witthin the Solarr Sector ............................................................................. 11
3.2
Greater Dive
ersification witthin the Wind Sector.............................................................................. 13
3.3
Waste-to-Energy Market: China, Europ
pe, and the U nited States ................................................ 14
3.3.1
1 Geotherm
mal on a Com
meback in Unitted States Th
hanks to Westtern State RP
PS Laws ............ 16
Section 4 ........................................................................................................................................................ 18
Chinas Cleantech
C
Grrowth and th
he Future of Nuclear Pow
wer................................................................ 18
4.1
Is Chinas Wind
W
Power Grrowth Rate Su
ustainable? ....................................................................... 18
4.2
Did Nuclear Power Just Miss
M the Boat?
? ........................................................................................ 19
Section 5 ........................................................................................................................................................ 21
Acronym
m and Abbrev
viation List ................................................................................................................... 21
Section 6 ........................................................................................................................................................ 22
Table of Contents
C
.......................................................................................................................................... 22
Section 7 ........................................................................................................................................................ 23
Table of Charts
C
and Figures.........
F
................................................................................................................ 23
Section 8 ........................................................................................................................................................ 24
Additiona
al Reading ....................................................................................................................................... 24
Section 9 ........................................................................................................................................................ 24
Sources and Methodo
ology ........................................................................................................................... 25
Notes ............................................................................................................................................................... 25

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11 and Bey
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Se
ection 7
TABLLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES
Chart 2.1
Chart 2.2
Chart 3.1
Chart 3.2
Utility-Scale Cumulativ
ve Solar PV Capacity,
C
Unitted States: 20
010-2016 .................................. 4
Offshore Wind Installe
ed Capacity, Base
B
Scenario
o, World Marrkets: 2011-20
017 ...................... 5
Concentrrated Solar Po
ower Installed
d Capacity, U nited States: 2010-2016 ............................ 12
Waste-to
o-Energy Reve
enue by Region, World Ma
arkets: 2010-2
2016 ....................................... 15
Figure 2.1
1
Figure 2.2
2
Figure 2.3
3
Figure 2.4
4
Figure 3.1
1
Clipper Winds
W
10 MW
W Britannia Offshore
O
Wind
d Design ........................................................ 6
Wave and Tidal Energ
gy Potential, North
N
America
a .................................................................... 8
DC Syste
ems Already Proliferate
P
in Todays Hom
me Environme
ents ........................................... 9
Comparis
sons of Line Losses
L
betwe
een AC and D
DC Transmisssion Cables ............................. 10
Mid-Sized
d Wind Marke
et for North America,
A
Avera
age Scenario
o: 2007-2015 ........................... 14
Table 3.1
U.S. Geo
othermal Capa
acity by State
e: 2010-2020 ..................................................................... 16

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11 and Bey
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Se
ection 8
ADDITIO
ONAL REA
ADING
Combine
ed Heat and Power
P
Fuel Cell, Engines and
d Turbine Technologies in Residential,
R
Commerc
cial, Institution
nal and Industtrial Applicatio
ons
www.pike
eresearch.com
m/research/co
ombined-heat-and-power
Geotherm
mal Power
Renewable Energy Ge
eneration for Concentrated
C
d, Enhanced G
Geothermal S
System
and Co-P
Produced Reso
ources: Mark
ket Analysis an
nd Forecastss
www.pike
eresearch.com
m/research/ge
eothermal-pow
wer
Global So
olar Energy Outlook
O
Solar Dem
mand Dynamiics, Cost Stru
uctures, Policy
y Factors, and
d
Competitiive Differentia
ators for Supp
pliers: Markett Analysis and
d Forecasts
http://www
w.pikeresearc
ch.com/researrch/global-solar-energy-ou
utlook
Hydrokin
netic and Oce
ean Energy
Renewable Power Gen
neration for Ocean
O
Wave, Tidal Stream,,
River Hyd
drokinetic, Ocean Current and
a Ocean Th
hermal Techn
nologies
www.pike
eresearch.com
m/research/hy
ydrokinetic-an
nd-ocean-ene
ergy
Offshore Wind Powerr

Market Op
pportunities and
a Challenge
es, Technolog
gy Issues, Ke
ey Industry Pla
ayers,
and Globa
al Capacity, In
nstalled Cost and Productiion Revenue Forecasts
www.pike
eresearch.com
m/research/offfshore-wind-p
power
ble Distribute
ed Energy Ge
eneration
Renewab
Distributed Solar Photo
ovoltaics and Small Wind Power:
P
Dema
and Drivers an
nd Barriers,
Technolog
gy Issues, Co
ompetitive Lan
ndscape, and
d Global Markket Forecasts
www.pike
eresearch.com
m/research/renewable-distrributed-energ
gy-generation
Waste-to-Energy Technology Marrkets

Thermal and
a Biological Processes for
f Electricity and Heat Gen
neration
for Municiipal Solid Waste: Market Analysis
A
and Forecasts
F
www.pike
eresearch.com
m/research/wa
aste-to-energy-technologyy-markets

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esearch LLC.
24
Cle
ean Energy: Ten Tre
ends
to Wa
atch in 201
11 and Bey
yond
Se
ection 9
SOU
URCES AN
ND METH
HODOLOG
GY
Pike Rese
earchs indus
stry analysts utilize a varie
ety of researrch sources in
n preparing R
Research Re
eports.
The key component
c
of Pike Resea
archs analysiis is primary research gaiined from phone and in-p
person
interviews
s with industrry leaders inc
cluding execu
utives, engine
eers, and marrketing professsionals. Analysts
are diligen
nt in ensuring
g that they sp
peak with representatives ffrom every pa
art of the valu
ue chain, inclluding
but not liimited to tec
chnology com
mpanies, utilitties and othe
er service prroviders, indu
ustry associa
ations,
governme
ent agencies, and the inves
stment comm
munity.
Additional analysis inc
cludes second
dary research
h conducted by Pike Researchs analyysts and the firms
staff of re
esearch assis
stants. Wherre applicable,, all seconda
ary research ssources are appropriatelyy cited
within this
s report.
These primary and se
econdary res
search source
es, combined
d with the an
nalysts indusstry expertise
e, are
synthesize
ed into the qualitative
q
and
d quantitative
e analysis pre
esented in P
Pike Research
hs reports. Great
care is tak
ken in making
g sure that all analysis is well-supporte
w
ed by facts, bu
ut where the facts are unkknown
and assum
mptions mustt be made, an
nalysts docum
ment their asssumptions an
nd are preparred to explain
n their
methodolo
ogy, both with
hin the body of
o a report and in direct co nversations w
with clients.
Pike Rese
earch is an in
ndependent market
m
researrch firm whosse goal is to present an o
objective, unb
biased
view of market
m
opportu
unities within its coverage areas. The firm is not be
eholden to an
ny special inte
erests
and is thu
us able to off
ffer clear, acttionable advic
ce to help cliients succeed
d in the industry, unfetterred by
technolog
gy hype, politic
cal agendas, or emotional factors that a
are inherent in
n cleantech m
markets.
NOTES
CAGR reffers to compo
ound average annual growth rate, using
g the formula:
CAGR = (End
(
Year Va
alue Start Ye
ear Value)(1/steps) 1.
CAGRs presented
p
in the tables are
e for the entirre timeframe in the title. W
Where data ffor fewer years are
given, the
e CAGR is fo
or the range presented. Where
W
releva
ant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be
given as well.
w
Figures are
a based on the best estimates
e
av
vailable at th
he time of ccalculation. Annual reve
enues,
shipments
s, and sales are
a based on end-of-year figures
f
unlesss otherwise n
noted. All values are expre
essed
in year 20
011 U.S. dolla
ars unless oth
herwise noted. Percentage
es may not ad
dd up to 100 d
due to rounding.

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esearch LLC.
25
Cle
ean Energy: Ten Tre
ends
to Wa
atch in 201
11 and Bey
yond
Published 2Q 2011
2011 Pike
P
Research LLC
1320 Pea
arl Street, Suite
e 300
Boulderr, CO 80302 U
USA
Tel: +1 303.997.760
09
http://www
w.pikeresearch
h.com
This publlication is pro

ovided by Pike Research
h LLC (Pike
e). This pub
blication may be used on
nly as
expressly permitted by
y license from
m Pike and may
m not otherw
wise be repro
oduced, recorded, photoco
opied,
d, displayed, modified, ex
xtracted, acce
essed or used
d without the
e express wriitten permission of
distributed
Pike. Nottwithstanding the foregoin
ng, Pike mak
kes no claim
m to any Govvernment datta and otherr data
obtained from
f
public sources found
d in this public
cation (wheth
her or not the owners of su
uch data are noted
in this publication). If you
y do not ha
ave a license
e from Pike ccovering this publication, p
please refrain
n from
accessing
g or using this
s publication. Please conta
act Pike to obttain a license
e to this publiccation.

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Utilities Back Into

Utility-Owned, Utiility-Scale Solar

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Wave and Tidal En

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2011 Pike Research LLC.

2011 Pike Research LLC.

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(Sourrce: Pike Researrch)

2011 Pike Research LLC.

(Sourrce: Pike Researrch)

2011 Pike Research LLC.

2011 Pike Research LLC.

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Offshore Wind Powerr

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