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In the first half of the 20th century, people defined themselves as workers and banded together in labor unions. In
the second half of the century, people sought power, not
so much as workers, but as consumers, and consumer
advocacy groups thrived. Now, people are shifting their identities againfocusing on their ability to create and co-create
and adopting tools and organizational practices that foster
both self-expression and collaboration.
The last few years have seen the invention of several new
economic structures that have the potential to redesign our
basic economic processes of production, distribution, and
property rights. Open-source production models, peer-to-peer
webs of exchange, and commons-based property rights systems are providing an alternate model for organizing economies on a local and global scale.
2014
As scientists get smarter about controlling chemical interactions at the molecular level, people are becoming more
aware of their own body chemistryand intervening in it
more often to achieve their own ends. They will be increasingly savvy about food chemistry; more likely to use drugs
to control their moods, personalities, and cognitive abilities;
and more engaged in monitoring their body chemistry with
greater precision.
What? Youve just hit town and want to see all things holy. Turns out,
town is a surprisingly spiritual place, which wasnt obvious outside of
the geoweb. The Wiccan guided tour intrigues.
02
03
04
What? Wishing away a pandemic didnt work. Avian u hit hard, and
an unprepared world watched as people diedfast. Youre left to surf
online memorials and double-check the strap on your breathing mask.
What? Why should stores and warehouses have all the RFID fun?
By now youre organizing everything in the house with tags, and your
kids are coming up with uses you never dreamed of, including grafti.
Now if only you knew what they were saying.
kinds of mall gangs. New ways to tap personal resources for the
community good.
2005 IFTF. All rights reserved. TYF Program, Artifacts from the Future Series. SR-910.
What? Small contributions add up to real value. You get points for
contributing to wikis, podcasting, sharing your photos. Your monthly
statement is as good as your bank statementmaybe better.
2005 IFTF. All rights reserved. TYF Program, Artifacts from the Future Series. SR-910.
What? Pay $17 for a CD that plays on one device? That was the last
straw. You happily voted for a city tax on any media that still comes
saddled with restrictive copyright. Now if only they could legislate
away bad taste.
08
So What? RFID tag prices drop, and people look past privacy
So What? New drugs target lifestyle conditions, let anyone feel like
a superhero. An overcrowded world uses advances in personal chemistry to make neighbors bearable.
2005 IFTF. All rights reserved. TYF Program, Artifacts from the Future Series. SR-910.
What? You get your e-mail in a Beijing Internet cafe and check out
with a $50 tab. Doh! You forgot the CCP now adds a surcharge to all
English content coming down the pipe. Good for the Chinese Web,
bad for your wallet.
05
you go. You can nd your best friends in a heartbeatand put some
change in your pocket at the same time. Smart.
07
2005 IFTF. All rights reserved. TYF Program, Artifacts from the Future Series. SR-910.
09
URBAN REDEVELOPMENT
P AT R I O T F E E
During the course of this decade, for the first time in history, more than half of the worlds population will live in
cities. The shift to cities will be greatest in developing
countries, which will have 14 of the 20 of the largest cities. At the same time, small citieswith populations of less
than 50,000will be among the fastest growing in both
the developed and developing world. All will strain existing
institutions to provide both the infrastructure and social
structures necessary for healthy human life.
06
NEW YOU
T A G . Y O U R E I T.
At the same time, were investing our time, money, and intelligence in a new degree of sociabilityusing new technologies to connect, cooperate, and experiment with new forms of
economic organization that are much more social than transactional. These experiments are both disruptive and promising; in the end, they may be lifesavers for our species.
2005 IFTF. All rights reserved. TYF Program, Artifacts from the Future Series. SR-910.
R I P. M I X . B U R N .
The perspective this year is sober. We humans are fundamentally changing the face of the earth. We are about to become
a predominantly urban species, living in megacities of over 20
million inhabitants. We are altering the global climate, creating extreme variations in intensity of natural weather events.
We are becoming more extreme in our political and religious
views and more dependent on complex, and ultimately vulnerable, technological infrastructures.
V I R T U A L LY D E A D
2015
Worldwide, in every major religion, it appears that fundamentalist sects are increasing in popularity. Not only do
these sects adhere more strictly and literally to their religious doctrines; they also reject the separation of sacred and
secular life that has characterized much of Western culture
over the last century. The result will be more conspicuous
presence of religious practices and beliefs in everything
from politics to the workplace.
01
R E P U T AT I O N S T AT E M E N T
I N S TA N T PA R T Y,
I N S TA N T VA L U E
2013
TT O OO LLSS
SACRED SIGHT
2012
P
P RR AACCT TI CI EC SE S
M MA ARRKK EE T SS
2015
P LP LA ACCEESS
COMMON HEALTH
P EP OE O
P PL LEE
10
2005 IFTF. All rights reserved. TYF Program, Artifacts from the Future Series. SR-910.
What? You recycle, get 80 mpg, buy organic. Now you can satisfy
your techno lust while doing good ... maybe. This is your rst computer made largely from recycled parts in Dharavi, that slum-scape
outside Mumbai. Does pushing bits feed the poor?
CREATIVES
CONSUMERS
social
accounting
systems
Thousands
consumer
advocacy
groups
2,500
2005
WORKERS
2,000
labor unions
1900
1950
2000
2050
Source: IFTF
2015
NETWORKING IQ
Group participation
Referral behavior
Online lifestyle
Personal mobile computing
Locative activity
Social
Transformation
1960s70s
1980s1990s
Source: IFTF
AWARE CONTEXTS
abundance
products
consumed
80
40
20
2003
V I R T U A L LY D E A D
R I P. M I X . B U R N .
03
2004
2005
DEEP PERSONALIZATION
More people reject mass offerings for
everything from religion to furnishings
engaging in customization and
do-it-yourself projects
Los Angeles,
USA
Istanbul,
Turkey
New York, USA
Cairo, Egypt
Mexico City,
Mexico
Source: biblesociety.com.au
URBAN WILDERNESS
KEY THRESHOLD:
MORE URBAN THAN RURAL
Mumbai,
India
TA G . Y O U ' R E I T.
NEW YOU
04
Bangladesh
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
P AT R I O T F E E
URBAN REDEVELOPMENT
E N D O F C Y B E R S PA C E
From physical versus digital to seamlessly
physical and digital
Intelligence is becoming increasingly embedded in places and
things at the same time as connective technologies link that
intelligence in social networks. The result: the end of the
distinction between cyberspace and real space.
Buenos Aires,
Argentina
India
2030
Re-emerging diseases
Avian flu virus
Bioweapons
Massive pollution
No quick recovery!
SIGNS OF BIO-DISTRESS
EXTREME
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Pakistan
Greenland as an indicator:
Vietnam
Boundary crossers
Identity switchers
Medical modifiers
Body builders
Power adapters
Death defiers
Source: BLEEX
DISCIPLINES OF
READINESS
Personal computers
Consumer electronics
Figure 9
Telecom
Difference Between Epidemics and Other Kinds of Disasters
Mining
Epidemic
Chemical
or Blast
Source: IFTF
Time
COMPLEX BUILT
ENVIRONMENTS
SELF-REFERRING
PRODUCTS
Smart homes
Imagine:
Volatility
Uncertainty
Complexity
Ambiguity
Pharmaceuticals
TEN IMPEDIMENTS TO
BETTER HEALTH CARE
Uninsurance
Workforce shortages
Administrative waste
Limitations of IT
AD HOC
INFRASTRUCTURES
TEMPORARY
CITIES
Automobiles
> 15 million
automobiles
highways
warehouses
packing crates
Downloadable prayers
Online confessions
Online religious instruction
Smart
Smart
Smart
Smart
MOBILE RELIGION
Source: IFTF
1115 million
Victims
or Cost
PERSONAL RELIGIONS
Source: Xybernaut
VISIBLE MINDS
Organized crime
Political thugs
Terrorists
Online pornography
Jakarta, Indonesia
< 11 million
EXTENDED SELF
Technological adaptations to extreme
environments drive new human species:
Shanghai, China
Dhaka,
Bangladesh
Manila,
Philippines
PERSONAL MEDIA
BIODISASTERS
Nigeria
Indonesia
Rio de Janeiro,
Brazil
Ethiopia
1
0
1950
Sao Paulo,
Brazil
Congo
05
Rural population
Urban population
SICK HERD
10
Billions
Lagos, Nigeria
Calcutta,
India
09
Delhi,
India
Karachi,
Pakistan
HOT CITIES
Tokyo,
Japan
Osaka-Kobe,
Japan
Beijing,
China
T E C H N O L O G I E S O F C O O P E R AT I O N
DARK MOBS
60
toll
good
100
private
good
SOCIABLE COMPUTING
VALUING
CONNECTIVITY
Chinese
speaking users
120
non-rivalrous
Chinese
140
rivalrous
value of interaction
TOOLS
Source: IFTF
08
Source: IFTF
MORE EVANGELISTS
products
reused
Source: IFTF
Computer connectivity
S T R O N G O P I N I O N S , S T R O N G LY H E L D
CHINESE INTERNET
scarcity
Technological
Transformation
500
Economic
Transformation
1,500
1,000
S M A RT N E T W O R K I N G
a grassroots economy
NEW LOCALISM
P R A C T I C E S
02
M A R K E T S
P L A C E S
GRASSROOTS ECONOMICS
P E O P L E
value of transactions
T R E N D S 2005
Stide
ACRED SIGHT
R E P U TAT I O N S TAT E M E N T
07
01
C O M M O N H E A LT H
IN
tide
S TA N T P A R T Y, I N S TA N T V A L U E
06
Security
Communications
Energy
Waste management
www.slabcity.org
Black Rock City/Burning Man
Refugee zones
Mega-slums
Airports
Resource management
Infrastructure protection
Ad hoc event security
Environmental monitoring
URBAN C O M P U T I N G
Location sensing
Geocoded data
Geo-info integration
Location-aware applications
Location-based services
Beauty aids
Household cleaning products
Personal hygiene products
Source: IFTF
P E R S O N A L - C H E M I S T RY
MANAGEMENT
Beverages
L O C AT I O N T E C H N O L O G I E S
LOCATION - B A S E D H E A LT H T O O L S
Food
HEALTHY SHOPPING
INTELLIGENT SERVICING
20
40
60
Percent
80
100
Food as drug
Personality drugs
No-sleep drugs & lifestyles
Personal chemistry monitors
Users will:
Internet devices
PERVASIVE GAMING
Cell phones
Merger of art, gaming, and social
iPods
networkingacross physical and
digital spaces
2005 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. All brands and trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.