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Emissions of Air Pollutants

for the World Energy Outlook
2011 Energy Scenarios
Final Report

Janusz Cofala, Jens Borken-Kleefeld, Chris Heyes,

Zbigniew Klimont, Peter Rafaj,
Robert Sander, Wolfgang Schpp,
and Markus Amann

Submitted to the
International Energy Agency, Paris, France
under Contract for Services between IEA and IIASA
(signed on 29 March 2011)

IIASA Contract No. 11-121

September 2011

This paper reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and has received only
limited review. Views or opinions expressed in this report do not necessarily represent those of the Institute,
its National Member Organizations, or other organizations sponsoring the work.

ii

Glossary of terms used in this report

CLRTAP
CO2
EC4MACS
GAINS
IEA
IIASA
IPCC
NEC
NOx
PM2.5
RAINS
OECD
SNAP
SO2
UNEP
WEM
WHO
YOLL

UN/ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution

Carbon dioxide
European Consortium for Modeling Air Pollution and Climate Strategies
Greenhouse gas - Air pollution INteractions and Synergies model
International Energy Agency
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
National Emission Ceilings Directive
Nitrogen oxides
Fine particles with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 m
Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation model
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Selected Nomenclature for Air Pollutants; Sector aggregation used in the CORINAIR
emission inventory system
Sulphur dioxide
United Nations Environment Programme
World Energy Model
World Health Organization
Years of life lost attributable to the PM2.5 exposure from anthropogenic sources

iii

iv

Table of Contents
Abstract - vii 1

Introduction.................................................................................................................................- 1 -

Activity projections ....................................................................................................................- 2 -

Emission projections...................................................................................................................- 3 3.1

Assumptions about emission control policies ....................................................................- 3 -

3.2

Current Policies Scenario...................................................................................................- 4 -

3.3

New Policies Scenario .....................................................................................................- 14 -

3.4

450 Scenario.....................................................................................................................- 24 -

3.5

Comparison of emissions .................................................................................................- 34 -

Air pollution control costs ........................................................................................................- 36 -

Health impacts ..........................................................................................................................- 43 -

Effects of the scenarios for Russia............................................................................................- 45 -

Summary and conclusions ........................................................................................................- 50 -

Appendix 1:

Breakdown of regions in the World Energy Model

vi

Abstract
This report examines global emissions of major air pollutants (SO2, NOx, PM2.5) resulting from
energy scenarios developed for the World Energy Outlook 2011 (OECD/IEA, 2011). Estimates
include emissions for 25 regions according to the aggregation used in the IEA World Energy Model
(WEM). Emissions have been estimated using the IIASA GAINS model.
The 2011 Outlook discusses three energy pathways for the next 25 years. The New Policies Scenario
provides a benchmark to assess achievements and limitations of recent developments of climate and
energy policies. It incorporates policy commitments and plans that have been announced by countries
around the world to tackle energy insecurity, climate change and local air pollution. These
commitments include, inter alia, national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions communicated
officially under the Cancun Agreements and the initiatives taken by G-20 and APEC countries to
phase-out fossil-fuel subsidies. The Current Policies Scenario provides a baseline picture of how
global energy markets could develop were government policies to remain as they are now. The 450
Scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent with limiting climate change to an increase in average
temperature to two degrees Celsius (2 oC). These pathways were implemented into the GAINS model.
Next, emissions of air pollutants were calculated. Calculations take into account the current air
pollution control legislation and policies in each country or region as adopted or in the pipeline by
mid-2011. Presented in this report estimates do not include emissions from international shipping as
well as cruising emissions from aviation. They also do not include emissions from biomass burning
(deforestation, savannah burning, and vegetation fires).
In 2009, world emissions of SO2 from sources covered in this report were about 91 million tons.
OECD countries contributed 23 percent of this total. Implementation of pollution controls for the
Current Policies Scenario causes an eight percent decrease in world emissions of SO2 in 2020
compared with 2009. This is a combined result of reducing emissions from OECD countries (by about
30 percent), increase in India, and a decrease in China, Russia, South Africa, and Middle East. After
2020, emissions from many non-OECD countries continue rising, which causes an increase of world
emissions by about three million tons until 2035. Particularly remarkable is the increase in SO2
emissions in India. The corresponding world emissions of NOx are 82 million tons in 2009 (of which
38 percent originated from the OECD countries), nine percent decrease until 2020 and next increase
until 2035 by about 12 million tons. Emissions of PM2.5 (41 million tons in 2009) are dominated by
the sources from non-OECD countries 90 percent of total. Changes in the world emissions until 2035
are rather small, with a 10 percent decrease in the OECD countries and stabilization in the developing
world.
The 450 Scenario causes an important reduction in emissions of air pollutants. In 2035, the emissions
of SO2 are nearly 40 percent lower than in the Current Policies case. Emissions of NOx decrease by 31
percent and those of PM2.5 by nine percent compared with the emissions estimated for the Current
Policies scenario. Emissions for the New Policies scenario lie between those for the Current Policies
and the 450 scenarios.

vii

Costs of air pollution control in 2009 are estimated at more than 200 billion /a 1 . Until 2035, these
costs increase in the Current Policies Scenario by more than a factor of two, which is due to higher
activity levels and increasing stringency of controls. In 2035, 60 percent of the total costs are the
expenditures on reducing emissions from road transport. The 450 Scenario brings 30 percent cost
savings in 2035 compared with the Current Policies case.
The Study also estimated health impacts of air pollution in Europe, China and India in terms of life
years lost (YOLL) attributable to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of PM2.5. PM
concentrations as in 2009 cause a loss of about 2.2 billion life-years 2 . This estimate is dominated by
impacts in China and India. The Current Policies Scenario implies an increase of the YOLL indicator
in 2035 by about 70 percent to 3.2 billion. Decrease of PM concentrations as in the 450 Scenario in
2035 saves about 870 million life-years.
Lower impact indicators and lower air pollution control costs in the scenarios with more active climate
policies, and in particular in the 450 Scenario, clearly demonstrate important co-benefits of climate
measures for air pollution.

All costs are calculated in 2005 using international prices of pollution control equipment and four percent real
interest rate.
2

The estimates do not include exposure to indoor air pollution.

viii

1 Introduction
This report describes the work executed by IIASA based on a contract with the International Energy
Agency (IEA) to provide a set of emission trends that correspond to the World Energy Model analysis
developed by the IEA for the World Energy Outlook 2011 (OECD/IEA, 2011). IIASA calculated
emissions of major air pollutants: SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 for three energy scenarios, namely:

The Current Policies Scenario

The New Policies Scenario and

The 450 Scenario.

A short characterization of these scenarios is included in section 2. The analysis employs as an

analytical tool the IIASA GAINS model. Methodology for air pollution calculations within GAINS is
described in Amann, 2004, and Amann et al., 2011. Estimates include emissions for 25 regions
according to the aggregation used in the IEA World Energy Model. The national assessment does not
cover the emissions from international shipping as well as cruising emissions from aviation. Also
emissions from biomass burning (deforestation, savannah burning, and vegetation fires) are not
included in national totals.
The remainder of this report is organized as follows: Section 2 summarizes activity scenarios included
in the analysis. It also explains assumptions about emission control legislation for individual
countries/country groups. Section 3 presents emission projections by country group, economic sector
and by fuel. In Section 4, emission control costs are shown. Section 5 discusses health impacts of the
scenarios. Since the focus of this years Outlook is on Russia, Section 6 provides more details on
changes in emissions of air pollutants from that country. Conclusions are drawn in Section 6.

-1-

2 Activity projections
The 2011 Outlook discusses three energy pathways for the next 25 years. The New Policies Scenario
provides a benchmark to assess achievements and limitations of recent developments of climate and
energy policies. It incorporates policy commitments and plans that have been announced by countries
around the world to tackle energy insecurity, climate change and local air pollution. These
commitments include, inter alia, national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions communicated
officially under the Cancun Agreements and the initiatives taken by G-20 and APEC countries to
phase-out fossil-fuel subsidies. The Current Policies Scenario provides a baseline picture of how
global energy markets could develop under an assumption that only policies and measures as enacted
or adopted by mid-2011 were implemented. The 450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent
with limiting climate change to an increase in average temperature to two degrees Celsius (2 oC).
Details about policies adopted in each of the scenarios can be found in the WEO 2011 Report
(OECD/IEA (2011).
All three scenarios were developed with the World Energy Model (WEM) and include 25 world
regions. Regions are either individual countries or groups of countries with similar policies and
emission characteristics. Countries that are major energy consumers (and CO2 emitters) are treated on
an individual basis. Coverage of each region is explained in Appendix 1. Details on energy
consumption structure up to 2035 for the scenarios, together with major macroeconomic
characteristics (population, GDP and value added by main economic sector), have been provided to
IIASA by the IEA. Next, they have been implemented into GAINS using a special interface routine.
Missing information has been completed based on scenarios already available in GAINS. In particular,
this included development of national energy scenarios for countries that are aggregated into a country
group within the WEM, derivation of sector-specific data for transport (vehicle-kilometres, vehicle
numbers) and estimation of activities causing process emissions (production of energy-intensive
products, agricultural activities, storage and handling of materials, waste treatment, etc.). Projections
of activities for process sector have been developed in collaboration with national experts. They
remain the same for all three scenarios. This means, that for all countries no changes in production
structure of energy-intensive commodities and no shift from OECD countries to the developing world
was assumed.
Compared with the assessment for the WEO 2010, the GAINS pattern scenarios, i.e., scenarios used
for downscaling to the WEO 2011 energy consumption structures, have been updated. Most important
updates depended on: (i) different distribution of fuels among sectors and regions in China; (ii) new
projections of development of the transport sector in many countries (structure of road vehicles,
assumptions about mileage and fuel economy); (iii) improvement of the coverage of the process sector
(new projections of production of products causing process emissions); (iv) revised assumptions about
the shares of renewable waste fuels in total biomass used in industry. Updates were done in
collaboration with national modelling teams and independent experts collaborating with the IIASAs
Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases (MAG) Program. These updates caused changes in
emission and control cost estimates compared with previous assessments.

-2-

3 Emission projections
3.1 Assumptions about emission control policies
Calculation of emissions of air pollutants has been performed assuming in each country the current air
pollution control policies, i.e., policies that were in force or in the final stage of legislative process as
of mid-2011. In particular, for Europe all emission limit values and fuel quality standards have been
included, as used in the analysis for the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol to the UN Convention of
Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) compare Amann et al., 2011 For other
countries policies have been assessed based on available literature (compare Cofala et al., 2007) and
more recent studies (Klimont et al., 2009, Xing et al., 2010). Assumptions about emission controls in
the power plant sector have been cross-checked with detailed information from the database on world
coal fired power plants (IEA CCC, 2010).
Controlling emissions from mobile sources is essential for air pollution abatement. For Europe,
assumptions about emission factors, as well as about timing and penetration of control measures are
based on the results of the COPERT 4 model 3 . For other countries information from DieselNet, 2010
and national sources was used. The update of emission factors for diesel cars and trucks takes into
account emissions in real operating conditions, which for some vehicle types importantly differ from
emission factors derived from test cycles.
IIASA continued its work on the updates of emission estimates for historic years. These updates took
place in connection with the review organized for the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol and the
revision of the EU National Emission Ceilings Directive 4 (NEC). For other countries, emission factors
and control legislation were updated based on literature sources and submissions of national experts
who collaborate with IIASA. Updates were also done in result of IIASAs participation in the
development of the database on the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways 5 , as well as work on
global black and organic carbon assessment for the UNEP. For Europe, IIASA updated the modelling
framework within the LIFE EC4MACS Project (Amann et al., 2010). Also new assumptions on
adoption of emission limit values for large combustion plants and limits of sulphur content in liquid
fuels were adopted for countries that have joined the European Energy Community 6 .
Countries - members of the CLRTAP submit annually emission inventories to the Convention
authorities. They also revise historic data on a regular basis. Newer submissions for historic years
differ in some cases from the old ones even by five to ten percent. This is the reason why historic
emissions for some countries differ from the WEO 2010 assessment.

http://lat.eng.auth.gr/copert/files/COPERT4_v7_1.pdf

http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/policyapplications/gothenburg-protocol-revision

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcome

http://www.energy-community.org/portal/page/portal/ENC_HOME

-3-

3.2 Current Policies Scenario

Emissions of SO2, NOx and PM2.5 by country group up to 2035 for the Current Policies Scenario are
presented in Table 3.1 to Table 3.3. Emissions by SNAP sector, separated by OECD and non-OECD
countries, can be found in Table 3.4 to Table 3.6. Values for 2009 have been derived through
interpolation.
In 2009, world emissions of SO2 were about 91 million tons. OECD countries contributed 23 percent
to this total. Dominating sources are power plants and industrial emissions. Implementation of air
pollution controls and structural changes in energy consumption patterns as in the Current Policies
Scenario causes an eight percent decrease in world emissions of SO2 emissions in 2020 compared with
2009. This is a combined effect of the decrease of emissions from both: the OECD region (minus 31
percent and from the rest of the world (minus one percent). The decrease of emissions in non-OECD
countries in the period 2009 2020 will occur under a condition of successful enforcement of control
measures according to the current legislation assumptions, first of all in China. It is characteristic
that in India, where strict emission limit values for sulphur from large combustion plants are missing,
the emissions increase in the same period by more than four million tons. After 2020 the emissions
from the OECD countries further decrease, whereas emissions from non-OECD countries increase and
are in 2035 four million tons higher. This is mainly due to higher coal consumption in poorly
controlled power plants in India and other developing countries, mainly from Southeast Asia.
According to the GAINS assessment, world emissions of NOx were about 82 million tons in 2009, of
which 38 percent originated from the OECD countries. Road transport was responsible for about 30
percent of NOx emissions. Until 2020, the emissions decrease by nine percent, which is due to 36
percent decrease of emissions form the OECD countries and an eight percent increase from the rest of
the world. It needs to be stressed that majority of non-OECD countries are currently implementing
emission standards on road transport sources, which importantly slows down the pace of increase of
NOx emissions. After 2020 the world emissions increase, and are about 11 million tons higher in 2035
than in 2020.
Emissions of PM2.5 (41 million tons in 2009) are dominated by the sources from non-OECD countries
90 percent of total. On a global scale, the highest contributors are residential and commercial
combustion (44 percent) and industrial emissions (29 percent). In 2020 and 2035, the world emissions
become slightly (by about one percent) lower. This decrease - in spite of a high increase in total energy
consumption - is due to the changes in fuel use patterns and better controls on sources in the power
sector, industry, and road transport.
Table 3.7 to Table 3.9 demonstrate emissions by country group and by fuel. Coal was responsible for
about 58 percent of world emissions of SO2 in 2009. Other important contributors were oil use and the
process (other sources) sector about 20 percent each. Whereas in the OECD countries the emissions
from coal decrease due to stringent emission limit values, the coal-related SO2 emissions for the nonOECD countries increase up to 2035 by more than six million tons. In case of NOx, oil contributed 50
percent to world emissions in 2009, followed by coal (23 percent) and gas (12 percent). In the
projection period, the emissions from oil decrease, mainly due to better controls on transport sources.
Emissions from other fuels, in particular from coal, increase. PM2.5 emissions are dominated by
biomass fuels and process sources. Each sector contributed about 40 percent of world emissions in
2009. In the projection period the emissions from coal increase, which is balanced by a decrease of
emissions from other sources.
-4-

Table 3.1: Emissions of SO2 by country group 7 in the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region
US
Canada
Mexico
Chile
Japan
Korea
AUNZ
OE5
EUG4
EU17
EU6
OETE
Russia
Caspian
China
India
Indonesia
ASEAN9
ODA
Brazil
OLAM
NAFR
South Africa
OAFR
ME
OECD
Non-OECD
World

2005
13,810
2,188
1,657
534
755
558
1,441
2,031
2,035
4,194
1,825
2,018
6,268
2,427
30,407
5,765
1,079
1,711
1,867
1,069
1,783
1,309
2,122
1,713
4,722
29,201
66,086
95,287

2009
8,792
1,832
971
607
598
549
1,394
1,932
1,389
2,602
1,261
2,252
6,019
2,668
33,161
7,502
989
1,474
1,999
1,099
1,832
1,149
2,017
2,063
4,906
20,665
70,392
91,057

2010
7,537
1,743
799
625
559
547
1,382
1,907
1,228
2,203
1,121
2,310
5,956
2,729
33,849
7,937
966
1,415
2,032
1,106
1,844
1,109
1,991
2,151
4,952
18,531
71,468
90,000

2015
5,498
1,550
515
730
532
526
1,374
2,080
1,099
1,732
386
2,217
5,031
2,897
34,640
9,755
899
1,383
2,131
1,181
1,688
968
1,644
1,733
4,529
15,635
71,081
86,716

2020
4,428
1,525
502
775
508
520
1,381
2,121
983
1,437
265
1,431
4,317
3,096
33,272
11,939
970
1,548
2,545
1,246
1,510
857
1,378
1,576
3,957
14,181
69,907
84,088

2025
3,874
1,520
457
822
499
512
1,398
2,209
878
1,368
238
1,381
4,488
3,204
30,253
13,547
1,050
1,719
2,915
1,330
1,590
802
1,263
1,592
3,493
13,538
68,866
82,404

Aggregation of countries to the WEO 2010 groups is explained in Appendix 1

-5-

2030
3,754
1,511
431
847
496
503
1,421
2,343
866
1,317
220
1,530
4,679
3,286
27,685
15,559
1,147
1,953
3,370
1,402
1,647
818
1,161
1,599
3,480
13,489
69,536
83,025

2035
3,684
1,509
410
859
489
491
1,387
2,378
816
1,278
214
1,602
4,858
3,355
28,884
17,779
1,260
2,186
3,545
1,429
1,689
857
1,165
1,634
3,573
13,302
74,028
87,330

Table 3.2: Emissions of NOx by country group in the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region
US
Canada
Mexico
Chile
Japan
Korea
AUNZ
OE5
EUG4
EU17
EU6
OETE
Russia
Caspian
China
India
Indonesia
ASEAN9
ODA
Brazil
OLAM
NAFR
South Africa
OAFR
ME
OECD
Non-OECD
World

2005
17,549
1,590
1,406
318
2,296
1,189
1,316
1,359
5,458
5,149
615
1,428
5,047
1,119
15,023
4,227
1,383
2,508
1,839
2,158
2,851
1,444
1,247
1,749
4,034
37,628
46,673
84,301

2009
13,750
1,312
1,288
374
1,801
1,170
1,216
1,359
4,481
4,132
473
1,307
4,797
1,221
18,680
5,203
1,506
2,408
1,781
2,252
2,841
1,516
1,264
1,829
4,012
30,883
51,090
81,974

2010
12,801
1,242
1,258
388
1,678
1,166
1,191
1,359
4,237
3,878
438
1,277
4,734
1,247
19,595
5,447
1,537
2,383
1,766
2,276
2,839
1,534
1,268
1,848
4,007
29,197
52,195
81,392

2015
9,631
1,066
1,134
427
1,328
1,090
1,059
1,283
3,438
3,216
354
1,143
4,187
1,341
21,085
5,477
1,597
2,526
2,003
2,355
2,865
1,538
1,191
1,967
4,055
23,672
53,685
77,357

-6-

2020
7,765
959
1,086
456
1,059
988
979
1,254
2,661
2,562
288
1,009
3,718
1,501
21,475
6,686
1,628
2,677
2,205
2,392
2,630
1,585
1,099
2,000
4,252
19,768
55,144
74,912

2025
6,768
913
1,125
496
907
920
967
1,254
2,374
2,242
251
988
3,416
1,632
21,896
8,022
1,735
2,922
2,376
2,422
2,739
1,644
1,114
2,078
4,669
17,967
57,903
75,870

2030
6,433
932
1,194
539
860
861
975
1,320
2,266
2,088
228
1,047
3,454
1,792
22,929
9,808
1,894
3,315
2,636
2,613
2,957
1,760
1,152
2,136
5,198
17,470
62,921
80,390

2035
6,379
957
1,240
578
842
831
962
1,346
2,273
2,102
227
1,084
3,636
1,955
24,444
12,265
2,054
3,722
2,910
2,746
3,106
1,826
1,193
2,227
5,502
17,510
68,898
86,408

Table 3.3: Emissions of PM2.5 by country group in the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region
US
Canada
Mexico
Chile
Japan
Korea
AUNZ
OE5
EUG4
EU17
EU6
OETE
Russia
Caspian
China
India
Indonesia
ASEAN9
ODA
Brazil
OLAM
NAFR
South Africa
OAFR
ME
OECD
Non-OECD
World

2005
1,150
171
474
156
216
176
182
452
646
704
236
590
1,332
221
12,332
5,430
1,438
1,826
2,174
867
1,089
501
382
5,340
692
4,327
34,453
38,780

2009
982
152
435
163
185
180
169
518
571
621
200
552
1,301
233
13,928
5,839
1,484
1,844
2,217
848
1,075
527
432
5,682
718
3,976
36,881
40,857

2010
939
148
426
165
177
181
165
535
552
601
192
542
1,293
236
14,328
5,942
1,495
1,849
2,228
843
1,072
534
444
5,767
725
3,889
37,488
41,377

2015
864
137
404
172
164
180
161
561
494
543
185
549
1,340
249
13,381
6,038
1,536
1,905
2,406
860
1,079
544
448
6,110
764
3,681
37,395
41,076

-7-

2020
808
129
405
177
152
178
155
573
463
511
182
520
1,327
269
12,296
6,196
1,561
1,937
2,547
872
1,064
549
447
6,431
776
3,551
36,974
40,525

2025
768
123
412
180
146
175
151
597
443
494
176
536
1,338
282
11,496
6,321
1,576
1,934
2,714
835
1,056
508
436
6,684
724
3,488
36,616
40,104

2030
759
122
422
186
143
173
152
614
447
495
169
606
1,361
295
10,770
6,470
1,589
1,948
2,849
788
1,067
474
425
6,877
685
3,513
36,374
39,886

2035
786
124
429
192
141
168
155
612
456
525
171
617
1,387
307
10,697
6,701
1,616
2,004
2,894
792
1,073
480
421
7,010
704
3,588
36,873
40,461

Table 3.4: Emissions of SO2 by SNAP sector for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2005
18,221
1,381
4,040
4,503
0
0
297
707
24
27
29,201

2009
11,087
1,250
3,390
4,290
0
0
105
491
26
27
20,665

2010
9,303
1,217
3,227
4,237
0
0
57
437
27
27
18,531

2015
6,639
1,139
3,268
4,124
0
0
39
374
25
28
15,635

2020
5,222
1,084
3,268
4,140
0
0
34
381
25
28
14,181

2025
4,587
1,029
3,296
4,236
0
0
33
306
24
27
13,538

2030
4,489
972
3,322
4,317
0
0
32
304
23
29
13,489

2035
4,361
951
3,292
4,311
0
0
32
303
23
29
13,302

Non-OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2005
37,974
4,420
12,456
8,913
0
0
885
987
322
130
66,086

2009
38,965
4,815
14,947
9,804
0
0
499
947
278
136
70,392

2010
39,213
4,914
15,570
10,026
0
0
402
937
267
138
71,468

2,015
38,737
4,971
17,151
8,452
0
0
337
1,020
268
145
71,081

2,020
38,212
4,892
17,615
7,381
0
0
325
1,065
265
151
69,907

2,025
36,882
4,717
17,893
7,490
0
0
376
1,091
260
158
68,866

2,030
37,202
4,445
18,320
7,561
0
0
443
1,146
253
165
69,536

2,035
41,565
4,135
18,622
7,560
0
0
512
1,215
253
165
74,028

World
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2005
56,194
5,801
16,496
13,416
0
0
1,182
1,694
346
157
95,287

2009
50,052
6,064
18,337
14,094
0
0
604
1,438
304
163
91,057

2010
48,516
6,130
18,797
14,263
0
0
459
1,374
294
165
90,000

2,015
45,376
6,110
20,419
12,575
0
0
376
1,394
293
173
86,716

2,020
43,434
5,976
20,883
11,521
0
0
359
1,447
290
179
84,088

2,025
41,468
5,746
21,189
11,726
0
0
409
1,397
283
185
82,404

2,030
41,691
5,417
21,643
11,878
0
0
476
1,450
276
194
83,025

2,035
45,926
5,086
21,914
11,871
0
0
545
1,518
276
194
87,330

-8-

Table 3.5: Emissions of NOx by SNAP sector for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2005
9,813
2,010
4,335
1,043
0
0
14,903
5,421
41
64
37,628

2009
7,742
1,949
4,157
999
0
0
11,078
4,852
42
64
30,883

2010
7,224
1,934
4,112
988
0
0
10,122
4,709
42
64
29,197

2015
5,755
1,921
4,234
968
0
0
6,378
4,313
40
64
23,672

2020
4,840
1,948
4,265
959
0
0
3,900
3,756
38
63
19,768

2025
4,592
1,974
4,336
943
0
0
2,809
3,214
36
61
17,967

2030
4,524
2,009
4,400
922
0
0
2,602
2,912
35
65
17,470

2035
4,517
2,052
4,400
922
0
0
2,647
2,871
35
65
17,510

Non-OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2005
12,683
2,980
8,602
1,163
0
0
13,543
7,136
366
199
46,673

2009
14,109
3,184
10,810
1,179
0
0
13,381
7,892
324
212
51,090

2010
14,465
3,235
11,362
1,183
0
0
13,340
8,081
313
215
52,195

2,015
15,501
3,341
12,463
1,262
0
0
12,139
8,433
315
230
53,685

2,020
16,994
3,403
13,003
1,331
0
0
11,310
8,548
313
242
55,144

2,025
18,369
3,436
13,471
1,393
0
0
11,654
9,019
307
255
57,903

2,030
20,429
3,439
13,961
1,449
0
0
13,069
10,002
300
272
62,921

2,035
23,138
3,435
14,205
1,448
0
0
14,831
11,270
300
272
68,898

World
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2005
22,496
4,990
12,937
2,206
0
0
28,446
12,557
407
263
84,301

2009
21,851
5,134
14,967
2,178
0
0
24,459
12,744
366
275
81,974

2010
21,689
5,169
15,475
2,172
0
0
23,462
12,790
356
279
81,392

2,015
21,256
5,262
16,697
2,229
0
0
18,517
12,746
355
294
77,357

2,020
21,834
5,351
17,268
2,290
0
0
15,210
12,303
351
306
74,912

2,025
22,962
5,410
17,807
2,335
0
0
14,463
12,233
344
317
75,870

2,030
24,953
5,448
18,361
2,372
0
0
15,672
12,914
335
337
80,390

2,035
27,655
5,487
18,605
2,370
0
0
17,478
14,141
335
337
86,408

-9-

Table 3.6: Emissions of PM2.5 by SNAP sector for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2005
311
1,178
386
566
40
0
629
442
325
450
4,327

2009
235
1,202
337
520
39
0
479
384
330
451
3,976

2010
217
1,208
324
508
39
0
442
369
331
452
3,889

2015
222
1,178
328
510
40
0
302
317
329
454
3,681

2020
227
1,162
324
524
39
0
232
265
326
453
3,551

2025
234
1,149
336
537
40
0
208
219
322
444
3,488

2030
241
1,155
345
546
39
0
210
199
316
463
3,513

2035
238
1,223
358
541
38
0
211
199
316
463
3,588

Non-OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2005
2,041
16,014
6,278
3,431
70
0
888
670
2,123
2,937
34,453

2009
2,401
16,889
6,822
3,972
95
0
844
709
2,108
3,040
36,881

2010
2,491
17,108
6,958
4,108
101
0
833
719
2,104
3,066
37,488

2,015
2,837
17,163
6,462
4,079
126
0
694
705
2,141
3,188
37,395

2,020
3,236
16,878
5,997
3,994
141
0
600
674
2,157
3,297
36,974

2,025
3,528
16,469
5,708
3,888
156
0
615
701
2,145
3,407
36,616

2,030
3,909
15,917
5,447
3,816
168
0
693
783
2,124
3,516
36,374

2,035
4,446
15,616
5,511
3,816
168
0
784
893
2,124
3,516
36,873

World
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2005
2,352
17,192
6,665
3,997
110
0
1,517
1,112
2,448
3,387
38,780

2009
2,637
18,091
7,159
4,492
134
0
1,323
1,092
2,437
3,491
40,857

2010
2,708
18,316
7,283
4,616
140
0
1,275
1,088
2,435
3,517
41,377

2,015
3,059
18,341
6,790
4,589
166
0
996
1,023
2,470
3,643
41,076

2,020
3,463
18,040
6,321
4,518
180
0
832
939
2,482
3,750
40,525

2,025
3,762
17,618
6,044
4,425
196
0
822
920
2,467
3,850
40,104

2,030
4,150
17,071
5,793
4,362
207
0
903
981
2,440
3,979
39,886

2,035
4,684
16,839
5,869
4,357
206
0
995
1,092
2,440
3,979
40,461

- 10 -

Table 3.7: Emissions of SO2 by fuel for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2005
17,291
6,476
34
332
5,068
29,201

2009
11,256
4,244
37
328
4,800
20,665

2010
9,748
3,685
38
327
4,733
18,531

2015
7,456
3,120
40
384
4,636
15,635

2020
6,073
2,966
41
432
4,668
14,181

2025
5,433
2,790
42
479
4,795
13,538

2030
5,265
2,737
44
537
4,907
13,489

2035
5,087
2,682
46
577
4,911
13,302

Non-OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2005
38,906
13,239
180
1,772
11,989
66,086

2009
41,632
13,427
219
1,819
13,294
70,392

2010
42,314
13,474
229
1,831
13,621
71,468

2,015
44,038
12,920
290
1,906
11,926
71,081

2,020
44,381
12,445
355
1,991
10,735
69,907

2,025
43,422
12,015
415
2,149
10,865
68,866

2,030
43,527
12,059
490
2,401
11,060
69,536

2,035
47,648
12,322
568
2,431
11,059
74,028

World
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2005
56,197
19,715
214
2,104
17,057
95,287

2009
52,889
17,670
256
2,147
18,094
91,057

2010
52,062
17,159
267
2,158
18,353
90,000

2,015
51,493
16,040
331
2,290
16,562
86,716

2,020
50,454
15,411
397
2,423
15,403
84,088

2,025
48,856
14,805
456
2,628
15,660
82,404

2,030
48,792
14,795
534
2,937
15,966
83,025

2,035
52,734
15,003
614
3,008
15,970
87,330

- 11 -

Table 3.8: Emissions of NOx by fuel for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2005
7,004
22,327
4,956
773
2,568
37,628

2009
5,214
17,555
4,916
792
2,406
30,883

2010
4,767
16,362
4,906
797
2,366
29,197

2015
3,705
12,097
4,610
888
2,372
23,672

2020
2,958
8,955
4,477
966
2,412
19,768

2025
2,774
7,224
4,445
1,054
2,469
17,967

2030
2,639
6,653
4,502
1,142
2,534
17,470

2035
2,496
6,589
4,629
1,241
2,556
17,510

Non-OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2005
11,284
22,692
4,517
2,374
5,806
46,673

2009
13,909
23,277
4,581
2,524
6,799
51,090

2010
14,566
23,424
4,596
2,562
7,047
52,195

2,015
16,550
22,618
4,562
2,716
7,239
53,685

2,020
18,287
21,895
4,726
2,856
7,379
55,144

2,025
19,588
22,646
5,004
2,962
7,703
57,903

2,030
21,247
24,961
5,547
3,063
8,101
62,921

2,035
23,471
27,967
6,194
3,166
8,100
68,898

World
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2005
18,288
45,019
9,473
3,147
8,374
84,301

2009
19,123
40,832
9,497
3,317
9,205
81,974

2010
19,332
39,786
9,503
3,359
9,412
81,392

2,015
20,255
34,715
9,172
3,604
9,610
77,357

2,020
21,246
30,851
9,203
3,822
9,790
74,912

2,025
22,363
29,870
9,449
4,016
10,172
75,870

2,030
23,886
31,614
10,050
4,205
10,635
80,390

2,035
25,967
34,556
10,822
4,407
10,655
86,408

- 12 -

Table 3.9: Emissions of PM2.5 by fuel for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2005
450
994
29
1,062
1,792
4,327

2009
479
775
22
987
1,714
3,976

2010
486
720
20
968
1,695
3,889

2015
491
513
21
949
1,707
3,681

2020
486
377
22
947
1,720
3,551

2025
471
296
24
955
1,741
3,488

2030
464
268
26
973
1,782
3,513

2035
456
266
28
1,048
1,789
3,588

Non-OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2005
4,239
1,569
59
14,751
13,835
34,453

2009
5,063
1,551
65
15,297
14,906
36,881

2010
5,269
1,546
66
15,433
15,173
37,488

2,015
5,782
1,374
79
15,469
14,690
37,395

2,020
6,151
1,232
94
15,212
14,285
36,974

2,025
6,439
1,250
106
14,757
14,064
36,616

2,030
6,751
1,382
119
14,219
13,903
36,374

2,035
7,156
1,560
133
14,100
13,923
36,873

World
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2005
4,689
2,564
88
15,813
15,627
38,780

2009
5,542
2,326
87
16,283
16,620
40,857

2010
5,755
2,267
86
16,401
16,868
41,377

2,015
6,274
1,888
100
16,418
16,397
41,076

2,020
6,637
1,609
116
16,158
16,005
40,525

2,025
6,910
1,546
130
15,713
15,805
40,104

2,030
7,215
1,650
145
15,193
15,685
39,886

2,035
7,613
1,826
161
15,148
15,713
40,461

- 13 -

3.3 New Policies Scenario

Emissions for the New Policies Scenario by country group are shown in Table 3.10 to Table 3.12.
Emissions by SNAP sector are presented in Table 3.13 to Table 3.15. In this scenario, not only energyrelated CO2 emissions are reduced but also emissions of air pollutants decrease. By 2035, the SO2
emissions are nearly 14 million tons (or 16 percent) lower than in the Current Policies Scenario.
Majority of that reduction (12 million tons) occurs in the non-OECD countries. In case of NOx, the
emissions are 11 percent lower. In absolute terms, this means 9.6 million tons of NOx less, of which
8.2 million tons is due to lower emissions from non-OECD countries.
Also, PM2.5 emissions decrease in the New Policies Scenario compared with the Current Policies
case. In 2035, they are 1.5 million tons lower than in 2009, which is due to the decrease of emissions
from developing countries. Emissions from the OECD region remain constant. Here the reduction of
emissions from coal and oil is compensated by the increase of emissions from biomass fuel use in the
residential sector.
Table 3.16 to Table 3.18 present the emissions by fuel, separately for the OECD and non-OECD
country group. Also in this scenario, dominating sources of PM2.5 are combustion of biomass fuels
and process emissions.

- 14 -

Table 3.10: Emissions of SO2 by country group in the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region
US
Canada
Mexico
Chile
Japan
Korea
AUNZ
OE5
EUG4
EU17
EU6
OETE
Russia
Caspian
China
India
Indonesia
ASEAN9
ODA
Brazil
OLAM
NAFR
South Africa
OAFR
ME
OECD
Non-OECD
World

2015
5,421
1,550
497
726
529
522
1,347
2,001
1,093
1,703
382
2,219
4,990
2,797
34,233
9,377
884
1,351
2,064
1,171
1,644
948
1,622
1,720
4,505
15,389
69,908
85,298

2020
4,234
1,514
485
770
502
510
1,336
1,960
949
1,371
253
1,307
4,223
2,985
31,354
10,655
949
1,413
2,371
1,212
1,443
831
1,355
1,525
3,885
13,631
65,760
79,391

2025
3,628
1,495
440
801
485
489
1,333
1,988
808
1,276
221
1,219
4,309
3,055
27,079
11,659
1,003
1,536
2,628
1,269
1,496
737
1,224
1,493
3,309
12,743
62,238
74,982

2030
3,403
1,473
417
816
473
470
1,316
2,037
766
1,200
209
1,293
4,357
3,084
23,810
12,682
1,065
1,698
2,963
1,319
1,520
707
1,099
1,463
3,174
12,372
60,443
72,815

- 15 -

2035
3,211
1,464
391
804
458
442
1,237
1,959
726
1,152
199
1,235
4,353
3,097
23,614
13,968
1,130
1,844
2,992
1,325
1,484
702
1,066
1,411
3,169
11,844
61,591
73,435

Table 3.11: Emissions of NOx by country group in the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region
US
Canada
Mexico
Chile
Japan
Korea
AUNZ
OE5
EUG4
EU17
EU6
OETE
Russia
Caspian
China
India
Indonesia
ASEAN9
ODA
Brazil
OLAM
NAFR
South Africa
OAFR
ME
OECD
Non-OECD
World

2015
9,596
1,066
1,126
424
1,326
1,084
1,041
1,274
3,434
3,195
354
1,132
4,159
1,330
20,898
5,289
1,584
2,479
1,988
2,360
2,852
1,536
1,177
1,961
4,012
23,564
53,109
76,673

2020
7,611
951
1,069
450
1,044
970
943
1,229
2,617
2,504
283
974
3,653
1,480
20,538
6,129
1,604
2,535
2,145
2,383
2,590
1,576
1,078
1,976
4,133
19,388
53,076
72,464

2025
6,552
894
1,085
480
880
845
912
1,219
2,257
2,150
242
944
3,305
1,606
20,004
7,204
1,676
2,727
2,282
2,386
2,635
1,622
1,066
2,031
4,374
17,275
54,106
71,381

2030
6,160
902
1,130
510
817
751
886
1,266
2,096
1,965
220
985
3,268
1,746
20,083
8,554
1,790
3,029
2,504
2,559
2,738
1,715
1,064
2,067
4,688
16,483
57,011
73,494

- 16 -

2035
6,000
917
1,155
530
778
656
829
1,275
2,058
1,934
215
996
3,348
1,888
20,478
10,564
1,886
3,338
2,740
2,668
2,759
1,757
1,049
2,125
4,849
16,133
60,659
76,793

Table 3.12: Emissions of PM2.5 by country group in the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region
US
Canada
Mexico
Chile
Japan
Korea
AUNZ
OE5
EUG4
EU17
EU6
OETE
Russia
Caspian
China
India
Indonesia
ASEAN9
ODA
Brazil
OLAM
NAFR
South Africa
OAFR
ME
OECD
Non-OECD
World

2015
867
138
405
173
164
178
160
558
495
541
187
548
1,330
250
13,380
5,982
1,535
1,897
2,389
863
1,081
544
446
6,101
763
3,679
37,295
40,974

2020
808
131
406
177
151
176
155
569
464
511
185
513
1,305
270
12,169
6,048
1,561
1,907
2,506
875
1,067
549
444
6,405
772
3,548
36,575
40,123

2025
770
126
412
180
142
169
152
595
442
500
180
529
1,301
285
11,188
6,121
1,574
1,897
2,642
835
1,059
509
431
6,640
714
3,489
35,904
39,393

2030
768
127
421
183
138
164
153
613
450
508
175
599
1,303
300
10,280
6,176
1,584
1,898
2,743
788
1,069
476
417
6,817
666
3,527
35,291
38,817

- 17 -

2035
802
136
425
187
135
155
155
612
464
549
178
606
1,302
316
10,016
6,316
1,606
1,938
2,749
800
1,071
484
409
6,934
681
3,620
35,406
39,026

Table 3.13: Emissions of SO2 by SNAP sector for the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
6,445
1,121
3,234
4,124
0
0
39
373
25
28
15,389

2020
4,793
1,060
3,177
4,140
0
0
33
375
25
28
13,631

2025
3,975
1,001
3,153
4,236
0
0
32
296
24
27
12,743

2030
3,618
938
3,129
4,317
0
0
31
288
23
29
12,372

2035
3,216
909
3,044
4,311
0
0
30
282
23
29
11,844

Non-OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
37,696
4,922
17,080
8,452
0
0
334
1,011
268
145
69,908

2020
34,577
4,761
17,264
7,381
0
0
318
1,042
265
151
65,760

2025
31,251
4,536
17,125
7,490
0
0
365
1,053
260
158
62,238

2030
29,557
4,242
17,147
7,561
0
0
425
1,092
253
165
60,443

2035
31,019
3,902
17,064
7,560
0
0
490
1,138
253
165
61,591

World
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
44,142
6,043
20,315
12,575
0
0
373
1,385
293
173
85,298

2020
39,371
5,821
20,441
11,521
0
0
351
1,417
290
179
79,391

2025
35,226
5,537
20,278
11,726
0
0
397
1,349
283
185
74,982

2030
33,175
5,180
20,276
11,878
0
0
456
1,380
276
194
72,815

2035
34,235
4,810
20,109
11,871
0
0
520
1,420
276
194
73,435

- 18 -

Table 3.14: Emissions of NOx by SNAP sector for the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
5,675
1,918
4,229
968
0
0
6,364
4,307
40
64
23,564

2020
4,621
1,932
4,251
959
0
0
3,832
3,691
38
63
19,388

2025
4,164
1,952
4,306
943
0
0
2,708
3,104
36
61
17,275

2030
3,900
1,978
4,351
922
0
0
2,466
2,766
35
65
16,483

2035
3,647
2,008
4,324
922
0
0
2,460
2,672
35
65
16,133

Non-OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
15,146
3,328
12,432
1,262
0
0
12,066
8,330
315
230
53,109

2020
15,588
3,368
12,842
1,331
0
0
11,089
8,302
313
242
53,076

2025
15,840
3,389
13,115
1,393
0
0
11,187
8,619
307
255
54,106

2030
16,544
3,381
13,417
1,449
0
0
12,246
9,402
300
272
57,011

2035
17,649
3,361
13,473
1,448
0
0
13,730
10,427
300
272
60,659

World
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
20,822
5,246
16,661
2,229
0
0
18,430
12,637
355
294
76,673

2020
20,210
5,300
17,093
2,290
0
0
14,922
11,993
351
306
72,464

2025
20,005
5,341
17,422
2,335
0
0
13,895
11,723
344
317
71,381

2030
20,444
5,359
17,768
2,372
0
0
14,712
12,168
335
337
73,494

2035
21,296
5,370
17,797
2,370
0
0
16,190
13,098
335
337
76,793

- 19 -

Table 3.15: emissions of PM2.5 by SNAP sector for the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
214
1,186
329
510
40
0
301
317
329
454
3,679

2020
206
1,186
325
524
39
0
228
261
326
453
3,548

2025
195
1,201
338
537
40
0
200
213
322
444
3,489

2030
183
1,243
347
546
39
0
199
190
316
463
3,527

2035
158
1,358
360
541
38
0
196
189
316
463
3,620

Non-OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
2,762
17,147
6,466
4,079
126
0
689
696
2,141
3,188
37,295

2020
2,917
16,835
5,994
3,994
141
0
588
653
2,157
3,297
36,575

2025
2,976
16,394
5,679
3,888
156
0
591
668
2,145
3,407
35,904

2030
3,077
15,811
5,391
3,816
168
0
652
734
2,124
3,516
35,291

2035
3,282
15,513
5,434
3,816
168
0
728
826
2,124
3,516
35,406

World
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
2,976
18,333
6,795
4,589
166
0
991
1,013
2,470
3,643
40,974

2020
3,123
18,022
6,319
4,518
180
0
816
913
2,482
3,750
40,123

2025
3,172
17,595
6,017
4,425
196
0
791
881
2,467
3,850
39,393

2030
3,261
17,055
5,738
4,362
207
0
851
924
2,440
3,979
38,817

2035
3,440
16,871
5,794
4,357
206
0
924
1,014
2,440
3,979
39,026

- 20 -

Table 3.16: Emissions of SO2 by fuel for the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2015
7,238
3,083
40
392
4,636
15,389

2020
5,570
2,899
41
454
4,668
13,631

2025
4,700
2,692
41
516
4,795
12,743

2030
4,223
2,610
43
590
4,907
12,372

2035
3,739
2,506
44
643
4,911
11,844

Non-OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2015
43,189
12,581
291
1,921
11,926
69,908

2020
40,803
11,839
349
2,033
10,735
65,760

2025
37,662
11,077
399
2,235
10,865
62,238

2030
35,435
10,943
456
2,549
11,060
60,443

2035
36,313
11,037
519
2,664
11,059
61,591

World
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2015
50,427
15,664
332
2,313
16,562
85,298

2020
46,373
14,738
390
2,487
15,403
79,391

2025
42,363
13,768
440
2,751
15,660
74,982

2030
39,658
13,553
499
3,139
15,966
72,815

2035
40,052
13,543
563
3,307
15,970
73,435

- 21 -

Table 3.17: Emissions of NOX by fuel for the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2015
3,618
12,058
4,607
911
2,372
23,564

2020
2,732
8,791
4,428
1,025
2,412
19,388

2025
2,335
6,964
4,353
1,154
2,469
17,275

2030
1,999
6,307
4,357
1,286
2,534
16,483

2035
1,649
6,120
4,381
1,428
2,556
16,133

Non-OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2015
16,213
22,386
4,534
2,738
7,239
53,109

2020
16,775
21,323
4,683
2,917
7,379
53,076

2025
16,827
21,615
4,878
3,083
7,703
54,106

2030
17,040
23,316
5,286
3,267
8,101
57,011

2035
17,601
25,736
5,744
3,478
8,100
60,659

World
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2015
19,831
34,443
9,141
3,648
9,610
76,673

2020
19,506
30,114
9,111
3,942
9,790
72,464

2025
19,162
28,578
9,231
4,237
10,172
71,381

2030
19,039
29,623
9,643
4,553
10,635
73,494

2035
19,251
31,855
10,125
4,906
10,655
76,793

- 22 -

Table 3.18: Emissions of PM2.5 by fuel for the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2015
477
511
21
963
1,706
3,679

2020
458
370
22
980
1,717
3,548

2025
425
286
24
1,018
1,735
3,489

2030
396
254
27
1,076
1,774
3,527

2035
363
246
31
1,202
1,778
3,620

Non-OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2015
5,657
1,357
79
15,512
14,690
37,295

2020
5,703
1,195
94
15,300
14,283
36,575

2025
5,682
1,189
106
14,870
14,058
35,904

2030
5,651
1,290
119
14,340
13,891
35,291

2035
5,658
1,436
132
14,273
13,907
35,406

World
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2015
6,134
1,869
100
16,475
16,396
40,974

2020
6,161
1,565
117
16,281
16,000
40,123

2025
6,107
1,475
130
15,888
15,793
39,393

2030
6,047
1,544
146
15,416
15,665
38,817

2035
6,021
1,682
163
15,475
15,685
39,026

- 23 -

3.4 450 Scenario

Emissions for the 450 Scenario by country group are shown in Table 3.19 to Table 3.21. Emissions by
SNAP sector are presented in Table 3.22 to Table 3.23. Changes in fuel consumption volume and
structure aimed at a reduction of energy-related CO2 emissions cause an important reduction of
emission of air pollutants. By 2035, the SO2 emissions are 34 million tons (39 percent) lower than in
the Current Policies Scenario. Majority of that reduction (30 million tons) occurs in non-OECD
countries. In case of NOx, the emissions are 31 percent lower, which is largely a result of lower use of
coal and lower emissions from mobile sources (road- and non-road vehicles). In absolute terms, this
means 27 million tons of NOx less, of which nearly 23 million tons is due to lower emissions from the
non-OECD countries. Emissions of PM2.5 also decrease compared with the Current Policies Scenario.
In 2035, they are 3.7 million tons (nine percent) lower. Higher biomass fuels use in the residential
sector in the 450 scenario causes an increase of PM2.5 emissions from the OECD country group.
Emissions from the non-OECD countries decrease by 3.7 million tons compared with the Current
Policies case.
Emissions by fuel for are shown in Table 3.25 to Table 3.27. Major contributor to lower emission
levels is the decrease in the use of coal (31 million tons of SO2, 16.5 million tons of NOx, and four
million tons of PM2.5 less compared with the Current Policies). Corresponding numbers for oil are:
minus 3.4 million tons of SO2, 9.3 million tons of NOx, and 0.5 million tons of PM2.5. In turn, the
emissions from solid biomass used in combustion processes are higher.

- 24 -

Table 3.19: Emissions of SO2 by country group in the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region
US
Canada
Mexico
Chile
Japan
Korea
AUNZ
OE5
EUG4
EU17
EU6
OETE
Russia
Caspian
China
India
Indonesia
ASEAN9
ODA
Brazil
OLAM
NAFR
South Africa
OAFR
ME
OECD
Non-OECD
World

2015
5,368
1,539
504
725
523
519
1,340
1,932
1,064
1,674
369
2,067
4,926
2,749
33,599
9,118
862
1,349
2,010
1,162
1,628
951
1,611
1,708
4,495
15,189
68,602
83,792

2020
4,112
1,486
447
757
480
494
1,266
1,739
884
1,303
247
1,205
3,977
2,863
28,845
9,301
868
1,371
2,228
1,175
1,365
811
1,323
1,460
3,732
12,969
60,769
73,739

2025
3,024
1,449
379
774
447
458
1,136
1,517
727
1,136
207
1,059
3,765
2,895
22,382
8,615
852
1,387
2,327
1,192
1,360
672
1,087
1,395
3,047
11,045
52,245
63,290

2030
2,455
1,416
343
760
420
425
1,038
1,366
660
1,031
198
1,112
3,625
2,892
17,691
8,669
845
1,404
2,252
1,202
1,324
613
890
1,336
2,790
9,915
46,842
56,757

- 25 -

2035
2,288
1,388
314
720
398
388
966
1,189
628
951
190
832
3,477
2,867
15,706
8,767
848
1,450
2,198
1,182
1,265
594
783
1,202
2,670
9,229
44,029
53,259

Table 3.20: Emissions of NOx by country group in the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region
US
Canada
Mexico
Chile
Japan
Korea
AUNZ
OE5
EUG4
EU17
EU6
OETE
Russia
Caspian
China
India
Indonesia
ASEAN9
ODA
Brazil
OLAM
NAFR
South Africa
OAFR
ME
OECD
Non-OECD
World

2015
9,487
1,055
1,115
421
1,306
1,072
1,033
1,248
3,365
3,131
346
1,110
4,093
1,302
20,575
5,175
1,545
2,447
1,951
2,314
2,770
1,490
1,164
1,931
3,922
23,233
52,133
75,366

2020
7,342
920
1,034
439
996
915
891
1,169
2,501
2,389
272
937
3,442
1,396
19,237
5,648
1,488
2,414
2,023
2,269
2,451
1,448
1,042
1,899
3,902
18,596
49,867
68,464

2025
5,965
844
1,016
453
797
750
777
1,117
2,089
1,968
226
893
2,960
1,465
17,129
6,043
1,452
2,464
2,086
2,197
2,437
1,400
904
1,917
3,995
15,775
47,568
63,343

2030
5,251
826
1,011
443
690
618
690
1,114
1,852
1,737
203
918
2,788
1,511
15,538
6,731
1,447
2,560
2,113
2,270
2,457
1,387
798
1,905
4,098
14,233
46,724
60,957

- 26 -

2035
4,890
809
962
423
613
515
624
1,087
1,745
1,658
193
879
2,732
1,523
14,461
7,635
1,415
2,705
2,253
2,266
2,338
1,327
670
1,893
3,820
13,328
46,109
59,437

Table 3.21: Emissions of PM2.5 by country group in the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region
US
Canada
Mexico
Chile
Japan
Korea
AUNZ
OE5
EUG4
EU17
EU6
OETE
Russia
Caspian
China
India
Indonesia
ASEAN9
ODA
Brazil
OLAM
NAFR
South Africa
OAFR
ME
OECD
Non-OECD
World

2015
890
141
408
172
163
178
161
549
495
542
186
542
1,324
248
13,309
5,928
1,535
1,893
2,376
860
1,077
542
443
6,090
760
3,698
37,115
40,813

2020
877
136
409
175
147
172
153
542
468
516
185
510
1,281
266
11,869
5,839
1,553
1,885
2,465
867
1,061
544
436
6,372
764
3,597
35,898
39,495

2025
896
137
415
176
135
163
143
536
450
514
180
525
1,246
281
10,535
5,730
1,557
1,845
2,571
829
1,053
499
411
6,586
701
3,565
34,548
38,113

2030
976
147
425
175
129
158
142
527
463
533
175
595
1,228
294
9,281
5,656
1,555
1,812
2,613
785
1,060
462
389
6,740
648
3,676
33,294
36,970

- 27 -

2035
1,168
176
432
175
127
150
150
513
487
580
180
596
1,214
310
8,773
5,616
1,567
1,825
2,605
809
1,058
467
372
6,830
650
3,959
32,873
36,832

Table 3.22: Emissions of SO2 by SNAP sector for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
6,335
1,088
3,185
4,124
0
0
38
366
25
28
15,189

2020
4,377
978
3,032
4,140
0
0
32
359
25
28
12,969

2025
2,624
869
2,966
4,236
0
0
30
269
24
27
11,045

2030
1,635
766
2,876
4,317
0
0
27
242
23
29
9,915

2035
1,227
681
2,722
4,311
0
0
24
212
23
29
9,229

Non-OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2,015
36,737
4,849
16,831
8,452
0
0
326
994
268
145
68,602

2,020
30,483
4,554
16,645
7,381
0
0
299
991
265
151
60,769

2,025
22,597
4,207
16,239
7,490
0
0
334
960
260
158
52,245

2,030
17,786
3,829
15,934
7,561
0
0
366
948
253
165
46,842

2,035
15,685
3,464
15,574
7,560
0
0
397
931
253
165
44,029

World
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2,015
43,072
5,938
20,016
12,575
0
0
364
1,360
293
173
83,792

2,020
34,859
5,532
19,677
11,521
0
0
331
1,350
290
179
73,739

2,025
25,221
5,076
19,206
11,726
0
0
364
1,228
283
185
63,290

2,030
19,421
4,595
18,809
11,878
0
0
393
1,190
276
194
56,757

2,035
16,912
4,144
18,297
11,871
0
0
421
1,144
276
194
53,259

- 28 -

Table 3.23: Emissions of NOx by SNAP sector for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
5,560
1,886
4,200
968
0
0
6,283
4,233
40
64
23,233

2020
4,287
1,847
4,164
959
0
0
3,711
3,527
38
63
18,596

2025
3,322
1,814
4,194
943
0
0
2,541
2,863
36
61
15,775

2030
2,628
1,806
4,191
922
0
0
2,170
2,416
35
65
14,233

2035
2,236
1,824
4,118
922
0
0
1,955
2,172
35
65
13,328

Non-OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2,015
14,790
3,296
12,306
1,262
0
0
11,729
8,205
315
230
52,133

2,020
13,843
3,281
12,545
1,331
0
0
10,360
7,952
313
242
49,867

2,025
11,689
3,243
12,695
1,393
0
0
10,032
7,954
307
255
47,568

2,030
10,094
3,184
12,816
1,449
0
0
10,337
8,272
300
272
46,724

2,035
9,162
3,132
12,711
1,448
0
0
10,492
8,593
300
272
46,109

World
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2,015
20,350
5,182
16,506
2,229
0
0
18,011
12,439
355
294
75,366

2,020
18,130
5,128
16,709
2,290
0
0
14,070
11,479
351
306
68,464

2,025
15,011
5,057
16,889
2,335
0
0
12,573
10,817
344
317
63,343

2,030
12,722
4,990
17,007
2,372
0
0
12,507
10,688
335
337
60,957

2,035
11,398
4,956
16,829
2,370
0
0
12,447
10,765
335
337
59,437

- 29 -

Table 3.24: emissions of PM2.5 by SNAP sector for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
208
1,220
328
510
40
0
297
312
329
454
3,698

2020
179
1,281
323
524
39
0
221
251
326
453
3,597

2025
122
1,378
336
537
40
0
187
200
322
444
3,565

2030
78
1,537
345
546
39
0
175
178
316
463
3,676

2035
48
1,861
357
541
38
0
155
180
316
463
3,959

Non-OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2,015
2,691
17,079
6,452
4,079
126
0
672
686
2,141
3,188
37,115

2,020
2,553
16,625
5,954
3,994
141
0
552
626
2,157
3,297
35,898

2,025
2,097
16,074
5,630
3,888
156
0
533
618
2,145
3,407
34,548

2,030
1,726
15,416
5,326
3,816
168
0
555
647
2,124
3,516
33,294

2,035
1,521
15,125
5,356
3,816
168
0
567
681
2,124
3,516
32,873

World
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2,015
2,899
18,299
6,780
4,589
166
0
969
998
2,470
3,643
40,813

2,020
2,733
17,906
6,277
4,518
180
0
772
877
2,482
3,750
39,495

2,025
2,219
17,451
5,966
4,425
196
0
721
818
2,467
3,850
38,113

2,030
1,804
16,953
5,671
4,362
207
0
730
824
2,440
3,979
36,970

2,035
1,569
16,985
5,713
4,357
206
0
722
861
2,440
3,979
36,832

- 30 -

Table 3.25: Emissions of SO2 by fuel for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2015
7,085
3,030
40
399
4,636
15,189

2020
5,046
2,743
39
473
4,668
12,969

2025
3,182
2,473
39
556
4,795
11,045

2030
2,004
2,306
38
660
4,907
9,915

2035
1,427
2,106
37
749
4,911
9,229

Non-OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2,015
42,047
12,418
285
1,926
11,926
68,602

2,020
36,401
11,229
338
2,067
10,735
60,769

2,025
28,470
10,207
368
2,335
10,865
52,245

2,030
22,867
9,767
403
2,746
11,060
46,842

2,035
20,046
9,533
441
2,950
11,059
44,029

World
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2,015
49,132
15,448
325
2,325
16,562
83,792

2,020
41,447
13,972
377
2,540
15,403
73,739

2,025
31,652
12,680
407
2,891
15,660
63,290

2,030
24,871
12,073
441
3,406
15,966
56,757

2,035
21,473
11,639
478
3,699
15,970
53,259

- 31 -

Table 3.26: Emissions of NOx by fuel for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2015
3,559
11,860
4,516
926
2,372
23,233

2020
2,498
8,421
4,197
1,068
2,412
18,596

2025
1,552
6,444
4,053
1,256
2,469
15,775

2030
840
5,495
3,903
1,462
2,534
14,233

2035
512
4,869
3,701
1,690
2,556
13,328

Non-OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2,015
15,797
21,910
4,444
2,743
7,239
52,133

2,020
14,940
20,156
4,445
2,948
7,379
49,867

2,025
12,506
19,663
4,508
3,188
7,703
47,568

2,030
10,412
20,085
4,648
3,477
8,101
46,724

2,035
8,962
20,395
4,854
3,798
8,100
46,109

World
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2,015
19,357
33,770
8,960
3,669
9,610
75,366

2,020
17,439
28,577
8,642
4,016
9,790
68,464

2,025
14,058
26,107
8,562
4,444
10,172
63,343

2,030
11,252
25,580
8,551
4,939
10,635
60,957

2,035
9,475
25,264
8,555
5,488
10,655
59,437

- 32 -

Table 3.27: Emissions of PM2.5 fuel for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2015
462
503
21
1,007
1,705
3,698

2020
407
354
23
1,100
1,713
3,597

2025
314
263
27
1,234
1,727
3,565

2030
240
220
36
1,423
1,756
3,676

2035
185
197
54
1,775
1,748
3,959

Non-OECD
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2,015
5,522
1,332
78
15,496
14,686
37,115

2,020
5,151
1,134
94
15,245
14,274
35,898

2,025
4,512
1,088
105
14,801
14,042
34,548

2,030
3,923
1,119
115
14,272
13,866
33,294

2,035
3,474
1,155
126
14,252
13,866
32,873

World
Fuel
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other sources
Total

2,015
5,984
1,835
100
16,503
16,391
40,813

2,020
5,558
1,488
117
16,345
15,987
39,495

2,025
4,826
1,351
131
16,035
15,769
38,113

2,030
4,164
1,339
151
15,694
15,622
36,970

2,035
3,659
1,352
180
16,027
15,613
36,832

- 33 -

3.5 Comparison of emissions

Figure 3.1 to Figure 3.3 compare the emissions of air pollutants by major countries/country groups for
the three scenarios. Aggregation of country groups shown in this section is explained in Appendix 1.
Figures clearly demonstrate the prominent role of non-OECD countries in the world emissions of air
pollutants. Contributions of China and India are particularly high. The figures also show that important
reductions, especially in the developing world, can be achieved through energy system measures.
Figure 3.1: Emissions of SO2 in the WEO 2010 by country group, million tons
100
Current policies

New policies

450 scenario

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005

2009
USA

2020
EU

2030

Oth.OECD+

2035

2020

China

Russia

- 34 -

2030

2035

Oth. OME

India

2020

2030

Oth. countries

2035

Figure 3.2: Emissions of NOx in the WEO 2010 by country group, million tons
100
Current policies

New policies

450 scenario

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005

2009
USA

2020
EU

2030

2035

Oth.OECD+

2020

China

Russia

2030

2035

Oth. OME

India

2020

2030

2035

Oth. countries

Figure 3.3: Emissions of PM2.5 in the WEO 2010 by country group, million tons
45
Current policies

New policies

450 scenario

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2005

2009

2020
USA

EU

2030

Oth.OECD+

2035
China

2020
Russia

- 35 -

2030

2035

Oth. OME

India

2020

2030

Oth. countries

2035

4 Air pollution control costs

This section presents air pollution control costs for the three WEO 2011 scenarios. Calculations
include international costs of pollution control equipment and four percent (social) real interest rate.
All costs and prices are expressed in constant 2005 and take into account current policy pollution
control legislation. Methodology of costs calculations can be found in Amann et al., 2004.
Under such assumptions control costs were about 200 billion /a in 2009. Until 2035 these costs
increase in the Current Policies Scenario by more than a factor of two, which is due to higher activity
levels (higher energy consumption, higher car ownership) and increasing stringency of controls. In
2035, 60 percent of the total are costs of reducing emissions from road transport sources.
The New Policies scenario brings cost savings of about 45 billion compared with the Current
Policies scenario. In the 450 case additional cost savings of 92 billion compared with the New
Policies scenario are achieved. Details by country group are presented in Table 4.1 to Table 4.3. Costs
by sector (SNAP aggregation) are shown in Table 4.4 to Table 4.6. Figure 4.1 compares the costs by
countries/country groups for the three scenarios.

Figure 4.1: Air pollution control costs for the WEO 2010 scenarios by country group, billion /year
600
Current policies

New policies

450 scenario

550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005

2009
USA

2020
EU

2030

Oth.OECD+

2035

2020

China

Russia

- 36 -

2030

2035

Oth. OME

India

2020

2030

Oth. countries

2035

Table 4.1: Air pollution control costs by country group in the Current Policies Scenario, billion /year
WEM region
US
Canada
Mexico
Chile
Japan
Korea
AUNZ
OE5
EUG4
EU17
EU6
OETE
Russia
Caspian
China
India
Indonesia
ASEAN9
ODA
Brazil
OLAM
NAFR
South Africa
OAFR
ME
OECD
Non-OECD
World

2005
41.4
3.4
2.3
0.5
12.9
3.3
3.4
3.4
24.6
17.0
1.6
1.6
2.5
0.5
13.5
1.6
1.6
2.9
2.2
2.8
2.2
1.1
1.1
1.2
3.3
112.2
39.7
151.9

2009
47.7
4.2
3.3
0.7
14.5
4.2
3.9
4.6
28.8
22.0
2.6
2.0
4.8
0.6
25.5
3.0
2.5
4.3
2.6
5.4
3.7
2.1
1.6
1.6
6.4
133.9
68.7
202.6

2010
49.3
4.4
3.5
0.8
14.9
4.4
4.0
4.9
29.8
23.3
2.8
2.1
5.3
0.6
28.6
3.3
2.7
4.6
2.7
6.1
4.1
2.3
1.8
1.8
7.1
139.3
76.0
215.3

2015
59.8
5.4
4.3
1.1
16.2
5.3
4.8
6.7
34.3
29.0
4.1
2.8
7.7
0.6
47.1
6.2
4.3
6.9
3.2
9.3
6.4
3.2
2.6
2.7
11.5
167.0
118.7
285.7

- 37 -

2020
65.3
6.2
4.8
1.4
16.9
5.8
5.4
8.3
39.9
34.9
5.0
3.9
9.5
0.7
65.8
8.7
6.1
9.8
3.5
11.4
8.6
3.9
3.4
3.8
15.2
188.9
159.2
348.1

2025
70.3
6.9
5.1
1.6
17.5
6.1
5.6
9.7
42.6
38.3
5.5
4.4
11.2
0.7
79.7
11.9
7.2
12.1
3.7
13.4
9.7
4.4
3.7
4.6
19.9
203.5
192.3
395.8

2030
73.6
7.2
5.4
1.8
17.6
6.2
5.7
11.0
43.4
40.1
5.8
5.2
12.2
0.7
89.0
16.4
7.9
14.1
3.8
14.4
10.8
4.7
4.0
5.6
23.2
211.9
217.9
429.8

2035
72.9
7.2
5.6
2.0
16.8
6.0
5.5
11.5
42.1
39.7
5.8
5.4
12.9
0.7
96.8
22.4
8.6
16.1
4.2
15.4
11.5
4.8
4.2
6.0
24.4
209.3
239.2
448.6

Table 4.2: Air pollution control costs by country group in the New Policies Scenario, billion /year
WEM region
US
Canada
Mexico
Chile
Japan
Korea
AUNZ
OE5
EUG4
EU17
EU6
OETE
Russia
Caspian
China
India
Indonesia
ASEAN9
ODA
Brazil
OLAM
NAFR
South Africa
OAFR
ME
OECD
Non-OECD
World

2015
59.3
5.4
4.3
1.1
16.1
5.3
4.7
6.6
34.2
28.8
4.2
2.8
7.6
0.6
46.7
5.9
4.3
6.8
3.1
9.4
6.4
3.3
2.6
2.7
11.5
165.9
117.7
283.6

2020
62.8
6.2
4.8
1.4
16.5
5.8
5.2
8.1
38.8
34.0
4.9
3.7
9.4
0.7
63.4
8.0
6.0
9.2
3.3
11.4
8.4
3.9
3.3
3.8
14.8
183.5
154.2
337.8

2025
66.0
6.7
4.9
1.6
16.6
5.8
5.3
9.5
39.8
36.5
5.3
4.2
10.9
0.7
74.2
10.8
7.0
11.2
3.5
13.4
9.3
4.4
3.5
4.6
18.4
192.7
181.4
374.1

- 38 -

2030
68.1
7.0
5.1
1.7
16.1
5.6
5.2
10.8
39.0
37.3
5.6
4.9
11.7
0.7
80.1
14.7
7.5
12.8
3.6
14.4
9.9
4.6
3.7
5.5
20.3
196.0
199.9
396.0

2035
65.9
7.0
5.2
1.8
14.8
5.1
4.8
11.3
37.5
36.0
5.5
4.9
12.1
0.7
83.9
20.0
7.9
14.4
3.8
15.3
10.1
4.7
3.6
5.7
21.0
189.4
213.8
403.2

Table 4.3: Air pollution control costs by country group in the 450 Scenario, billion /year
WEM region
US
Canada
Mexico
Chile
Japan
Korea
AUNZ
OE5
EUG4
EU17
EU6
OETE
Russia
Caspian
China
India
Indonesia
ASEAN9
ODA
Brazil
OLAM
NAFR
South Africa
OAFR
ME
OECD
Non-OECD
World

2015
59.1
5.4
4.3
1.1
15.9
5.2
4.7
6.5
33.6
28.4
4.0
2.8
7.5
0.6
45.9
5.9
4.1
6.7
3.1
9.1
6.1
3.1
2.5
2.7
11.2
164.1
115.2
279.3

2020
62.1
6.0
4.6
1.3
15.6
5.4
4.9
7.6
37.4
32.6
4.7
3.6
8.9
0.6
59.6
7.8
5.5
8.6
3.1
10.6
7.8
3.4
3.1
3.6
13.9
177.5
144.8
322.3

2025
58.0
6.3
4.5
1.5
14.6
5.0
4.4
8.1
37.6
33.4
4.9
4.0
9.8
0.7
64.6
9.8
6.0
9.7
3.0
11.8
8.5
3.5
2.9
4.2
16.8
173.4
160.1
333.6

- 39 -

2030
52.7
6.4
4.4
1.5
13.0
4.3
3.8
8.6
35.3
32.9
5.1
4.5
10.0
0.7
64.3
12.3
6.1
10.1
2.7
12.1
8.8
3.2
2.5
4.8
17.8
163.0
165.1
328.0

2035
48.8
6.2
4.0
1.5
10.9
3.5
3.4
8.3
31.8
30.6
4.7
4.3
9.7
0.7
62.4
15.1
5.9
10.7
2.8
12.2
8.4
2.9
2.0
4.7
15.8
149.0
162.2
311.2

Table 4.4: Air pollution control costs by SNAP sector for the Current Policies Scenario, billion /year
OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2005
32.9
7.3
5.0
8.2
2.6
0.0
54.5
1.4
0.0
0.4
112.2

2009
35.6
9.0
5.6
8.9
2.6
0.0
68.9
3.1
0.0
0.4
133.9

2010
36.2
9.4
5.7
9.0
2.5
0.0
72.5
3.5
0.0
0.4
139.3

2015
37.0
10.6
6.0
9.6
2.6
0.0
92.9
7.9
0.0
0.4
167.0

2020
37.1
12.3
6.0
10.0
2.5
0.0
107.5
13.0
0.0
0.4
188.9

2025
36.9
13.2
6.1
10.5
2.6
0.0
116.2
17.7
0.0
0.4
203.5

2030
35.7
14.8
6.3
10.7
2.5
0.0
121.2
20.3
0.0
0.4
211.9

2035
33.1
15.6
6.2
10.7
2.4
0.0
121.5
19.3
0.0
0.4
209.3

Non-OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2005
9.2
2.2
5.9
7.8
0.3
0.0
13.3
0.8
0.0
0.1
39.7

2009
16.5
2.9
8.2
9.5
0.4
0.0
28.9
2.2
0.0
0.1
68.7

2010
18.4
3.1
8.8
9.9
0.4
0.0
32.8
2.6
0.0
0.1
76.0

2015
24.9
3.8
10.3
10.5
0.4
0.0
63.0
5.7
0.0
0.1
118.7

2020
31.4
4.5
11.0
10.9
0.4
0.0
90.4
10.5
0.0
0.1
159.2

2025
36.5
5.3
11.7
11.3
0.4
0.0
115.0
12.0
0.0
0.1
192.3

2030
41.6
6.2
12.3
11.6
0.5
0.0
134.6
11.2
0.0
0.1
217.9

2035
46.6
6.2
12.3
11.6
0.4
0.0
150.8
11.3
0.0
0.1
239.2

World
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2005
42.1
9.5
10.9
16.0
3.0
0.0
67.8
2.2
0.0
0.5
151.9

2009
52.1
11.9
13.8
18.3
2.9
0.0
97.8
5.3
0.0
0.5
202.6

2010
54.6
12.5
14.5
18.9
2.9
0.0
105.3
6.1
0.0
0.5
215.3

2015
61.9
14.4
16.3
20.0
3.0
0.0
156.0
13.6
0.0
0.5
285.7

2020
68.4
16.8
17.0
20.9
2.9
0.0
197.9
23.5
0.0
0.5
348.1

2025
73.4
18.5
17.9
21.8
3.0
0.0
231.1
29.6
0.0
0.5
395.8

2030
77.3
21.0
18.5
22.3
2.9
0.0
255.7
31.5
0.0
0.5
429.8

2035
79.7
21.8
18.4
22.3
2.9
0.0
272.3
30.7
0.0
0.5
448.6

- 40 -

Table 4.5: Air pollution control costs by SNAP sector for the New Policies Scenario, billion /year
OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
36.1
10.7
6.0
9.6
2.6
0.0
92.7
7.9
0.0
0.4
165.9

2020
33.7
12.5
6.0
10.0
2.5
0.0
105.5
12.8
0.0
0.4
183.5

2025
30.6
13.8
6.1
10.5
2.6
0.0
111.5
17.2
0.0
0.4
192.7

2030
26.5
16.0
6.2
10.7
2.5
0.0
114.2
19.4
0.0
0.4
196.0

2035
21.9
17.6
6.1
10.7
2.4
0.0
112.1
18.1
0.0
0.4
189.4

Non-OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
24.3
3.8
10.3
10.5
0.4
0.0
62.7
5.6
0.0
0.1
117.7

2020
28.4
4.5
10.9
10.9
0.4
0.0
88.8
10.2
0.0
0.1
154.2

2025
30.8
5.3
11.3
11.3
0.4
0.0
110.8
11.4
0.0
0.1
181.4

2030
32.8
6.3
11.6
11.6
0.5
0.0
126.6
10.6
0.0
0.1
199.9

2035
34.1
6.4
11.4
11.6
0.4
0.0
139.3
10.6
0.0
0.1
213.8

World
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
60.4
14.5
16.3
20.0
3.0
0.0
155.4
13.5
0.0
0.5
283.6

2020
62.2
17.0
16.9
20.9
2.9
0.0
194.3
23.0
0.0
0.5
337.8

2025
61.4
19.2
17.4
21.8
3.0
0.0
222.3
28.6
0.0
0.5
374.1

2030
59.2
22.3
17.8
22.3
2.9
0.0
240.8
30.0
0.0
0.5
396.0

2035
56.0
23.9
17.5
22.3
2.9
0.0
251.4
28.7
0.0
0.5
403.2

- 41 -

Table 4.6: Air pollution control costs by SNAP sector for the 450 Scenario, billion /year
OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
35.5
10.8
5.9
9.6
2.6
0.0
91.6
7.7
0.0
0.4
164.1

2020
31.1
13.3
5.9
10.0
2.5
0.0
102.1
12.1
0.0
0.4
177.5

2025
18.1
15.7
6.0
10.5
2.6
0.0
104.6
15.5
0.0
0.4
173.4

2030
6.9
19.7
6.1
10.7
2.5
0.0
100.3
16.4
0.0
0.4
163.0

2035
3.6
23.7
6.0
10.7
2.4
0.0
88.1
14.1
0.0
0.4
149.0

Non-OECD
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
23.7
3.8
10.2
10.5
0.4
0.0
61.1
5.6
0.0
0.1
115.2

2020
25.2
4.5
10.5
10.9
0.4
0.0
83.5
9.8
0.0
0.1
144.8

2025
21.9
5.3
10.7
11.3
0.4
0.0
100.1
10.3
0.0
0.1
160.1

2030
18.0
6.3
10.8
11.6
0.5
0.0
108.9
9.0
0.0
0.1
165.1

2035
14.8
6.4
10.4
11.6
0.4
0.0
110.0
8.6
0.0
0.1
162.2

World
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
59.2
14.6
16.1
20.0
3.0
0.0
152.6
13.3
0.0
0.5
279.3

2020
56.3
17.8
16.4
20.9
2.9
0.0
185.6
21.9
0.0
0.5
322.3

2025
40.0
21.0
16.7
21.8
3.0
0.0
204.7
25.8
0.0
0.5
333.6

2030
24.9
25.9
16.9
22.3
2.9
0.0
209.1
25.5
0.0
0.5
328.0

2035
18.3
30.1
16.3
22.3
2.9
0.0
198.1
22.7
0.0
0.5
311.2

- 42 -

5 Health impacts
Comprehensive assessment of all health and ecosystems impacts of energy scenarios analyzed in this
report was not possible for all countries due to lack of data. Thus the analysis was limited to the
estimates of life years lost (YOLL) attributable to the exposure to PM2.5 in ambient air in Europe,
China and India. Countries included cover nearly half of the world population. Ambient PM2.5
concentrations include primary PM2.5 as well as secondary aerosols (sulphates and nitrates).
Methodology of the assessment (Amann, Heyes, Schpp, and Mechler, 2004) was developed in
collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Global Burden of Disease Project 8 .
Since the YOLL indicator includes long-term health effects of exposure to fine particles, the estimates
refer to the population above the age of thirty 9 . The assessment covers only outdoor exposure and does
not consider negative health effects of indoor air pollution.
In the countries covered by the GAINS assessment (China, India and Europe) concentrations of fine
particles as in 2009 cause a loss of about 2.2 billion of life years - Table 5.1. This estimate is
dominated by impacts in China and India, which together contribute 88 percent of YOLL in 2009. The
Current Policies Scenario implies an increase of the YOLL indicator until 2035 by 46 percent to 3.2
billion. This is a combined effect of higher emissions of air pollutants and population increase in India
and China and a decrease of air pollution in Europe. Reductions of precursor emissions in the 450
scenario compared with the Current Policies case and thus lower concentrations of PM2.5 in 2035 save
870 million life-years, of which 380 million in China and 460 million in India. The New Policies
scenario decreases life-years lost in the countries included by about 340 million compared with the
Current Policies scenario.

http://www.globalburden.org/index.html

In 2009, the share of population over the age of thirty was 56 percent in China, 45 percent in India and 72
percent in the European Union. These shares increase until 2035 for China to 67 percent and for India to 55
percent.

- 43 -

Table 5.1: Life years lost (YOLL) due to exposure to anthropogenic emissions of PM2.5, million life
years
WEM
region
China
India
Russia (1)
EU6
OE5 (2)
EUG4
EU17
OETE

2005
1139
458
57
15
3
104
73
34

2009
1345
569
55
13
2
87
61
31

WEM
region
China
India
Russia (1)
EU6
OE5 (2)
EUG4
EU17
OETE

2015
1463
710
54
11
2
73
52
27

2020
1481
858
51
9
2
64
46
23

WEM
region
China
India
Russia (1)
EU6
OE5 (2)
EUG4
EU17
OETE

2015
1449
700
53
10
2
72
51
27

(1)
(2)

2020
1419
805
50
9
2
62
45
22

2010
1396
597
55
13
2
83
59
30

2015
1470
724
54
11
2
73
52
28

New Policies scenario

2025
2030
1419
1361
1015
1214
50
50
8
8
1
1
57
56
42
41
22
23
450 scenario
2025
1291
885
48
8
1
54
40
21

Only European part

Does not include Turkey

- 44 -

2030
1177
1009
47
7
1
53
39
22

Current policies scenario

2020
2025
2030
1522
1497
1470
907
1094
1352
52
51
52
9
8
8
2
1
1
65
59
59
47
43
43
24
23
25

2035
1340
1307
50
8
1
56
41
23

2035
1105
1028
46
7
1
52
39
20

2035
1489
1490
53
8
1
59
43
25

6 Effects of the scenarios for Russia

This section discusses the effects of the WEO 2011 energy scenarios on emissions of air pollutants in
Russia. Similarly as for other countries, calculations assume implementation of current legislation
measures to control air emissions from combustion and process sources. Russian air pollution control
system is based on a set of ambient air quality standards. In addition, for some sources emission limit
values exist. However, degree of enforcement of these standards and limit values is hard to identify. It
is also uncertain how the air pollution control system will evolve in the future. After consultations with
Russian experts collaborating with IIASA it has been assumed that major large combustion plants will
be equipped with moderate (and relatively cheap) control measures like in-furnace control of SO2
emissions or combustion modification for NOx. Measures on mobile sources are based on European
legislation (Euro standards). Pace of implementation of those measures follows legislation already in
force, together with governmental plans to introduce Euro 4/IV before 2015. The current legislation
also includes improvement in the quality of liquid fuels, which is necessary to meet stricter standards
on mobile sources. Controls on process sources from the non-ferrous metals industry, which are
important emission sources of SO2 and dust, have been assumed according to programs presented by
major enterprises from this sector. To control emissions of PM from large stationary combustion and
process sources, implementation of medium - to high efficiency electrostatic precipitators has been
assumed.
Under such assumptions, emissions of SO2 from the territory of the Russian Federation decrease in the
Current Policies scenario from the current six million tons to about 4.9 million tons in 2035 (Table
6.1). Most important contributors to the emissions are sources from the power generation and process
sectors. Emissions of NOx (Table 6.2) decrease from about 4.8 million tons in 2009 to 3.6 million tons.
This is mainly due to the decrease from the power generation and mobile sources. In turn, emissions
of fine particles (PM2.5 - Table 6.3), which are estimated at 1.3 million tons in 2009, increase by
about seven percent, which is a combined effect of higher energy consumption and lack of substantial
improvement in stringency of controlling emissions. Expenditures on pollution control (Table 6.10)
increase from about 4.8 billion /a in 2009 to 12.9 billion /a in 2035.
Implementation of policies to reduce energy consumption and emissions of greenhouse gases bring
important benefits for air pollution in Russia Table 6.4 to Table 6.9. Compared with the Current
Policies scenario, the New Policies case causes a reduction in SO2 emissions in 2035 by more than a
half million tons. Corresponding reductions of NOx and PM2.5 are: 287 and 85 thousand tons. Cobenefits for air pollution of the 450 scenario relative to the New Policies scenario are even higher:
about 880 thousand tons of SO2, 620 thousand tons of NOx, and 90 thousand tons of fine particles.
Expenditures on controlling emissions decrease by 820 million /a for the New Policies scenario and
by further 2.4 billion /a for the 450 scenario - Table 6.11 and Table 6.12.
Lower emissions improve air quality in Russia and thus reduce negative health impacts - Table 5.1.
The number of lifeyears lost in the European part of the country decreases in the 450 scenario and is in
2035 about 13 percent lower than in the Current Policies scenario.

- 45 -

Table 6.1: Emissions of SO2 by SNAP 1 sector in Russia, Current Policies scenario, kilotons
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2005
2793
204
502
2326
0
0
186
155
95
7
6268

2009
2298
197
613
2667
0
0
56
110
71
7
6019

2010
2174
195
641
2752
0
0
23
99
65
7
5956

2015
2256
196
673
1732
0
0
1
102
64
7
5031

2020
2327
195
694
929
0
0
1
102
63
7
4317

2025
2445
195
719
958
0
0
1
102
61
7
4489

2030
2593
193
748
976
0
0
1
101
60
7
4679

2035
2743
188
779
976
0
0
2
104
60
7
4858

Table 6.2: Emissions of NOx by SNAP 1 sector in Russia, Current Policies scenario, kilotons
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2005
2262
132
338
119
0
0
1107
988
95
6
5047

2009
2007
136
392
128
0
0
998
1058
71
6
4797

2010
1944
137
406
130
0
0
970
1076
65
6
4734

2015
1606
146
448
142
0
0
708
1067
64
6
4187

2020
1323
156
474
146
0
0
520
1030
63
6
3718

2025
1176
165
494
147
0
0
358
1008
61
6
3416

2030
1226
176
514
146
0
0
333
993
60
6
3454

2035
1321
186
531
146
0
0
354
1031
60
6
3636

Table 6.3: Emissions of PM2.5 by SNAP 1 sector in Russia, Current Policies scenario, kilotons
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2005
224
154
77
389
5
0
55
89
147
192
1332

2009
205
140
87
410
5
0
55
91
116
193
1301

2010
201
136
89
415
4
0
55
92
109
193
1293

- 46 -

2015
194
136
100
473
5
0
42
90
107
193
1340

2020
190
132
105
485
6
0
26
87
105
193
1327

2025
196
131
109
496
6
0
18
85
102
194
1338

2030
207
129
112
508
7
0
18
84
101
194
1361

2035
224
133
113
508
7
0
19
88
101
194
1387

Table 6.4: Emissions of SO2 by SNAP 1 sector in Russia, New Policies scenario, kilotons
SNAP sector

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture

2223
188
673
1732
0
0
1
102
64
7

2252
178
693
929
0
0
1
100
63
7

2303
168
711
958
0
0
1
99
61
7

2331
155
729
976
0
0
1
98
60
7

2324
138
749
976
0
0
2
99
60
7

Sum

4990

4223

4309

4357

4353

Table 6.5: Emissions of NOx by SNAP 1 sector in Russia, New Policies scenario, kilotons
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
1588
145
445
142
0
0
707
1063
64
6
4159

2020
1282
152
466
146
0
0
517
1021
63
6
3653

2025
1104
158
481
147
0
0
354
994
61
6
3305

2030
1095
162
495
146
0
0
326
978
60
6
3268

2035
1111
165
507
146
0
0
340
1014
60
6
3348

Table 6.6: Emissions of PM2.5 by SNAP 1 sector in Russia, New Policies scenario, kilotons
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
190
130
100
473
5
0
42
90
107
193
1330

2020
180
120
105
485
6
0
26
86
105
193
1305

2025
180
112
109
496
6
0
17
84
102
194
1301

- 47 -

2030
178
102
112
508
7
0
18
84
101
194
1303

2035
177
96
113
508
7
0
18
88
101
194
1302

Table 6.7: Emissions of SO2 by SNAP 1 sector in Russia, 450 scenario, kilotons
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
2166
186
669
1732
0
0
1
100
64
7
4926

2020
2030
172
680
929
0
0
1
96
63
7
3977

2025
1813
156
676
958
0
0
1
92
61
7
3765

2030
1680
140
675
976
0
0
1
87
60
7
3625

2035
1548
124
677
976
0
0
1
84
60
7
3477

Table 6.8: Emissions of NOx by SNAP 1 sector in Russia, 450 scenario, kilotons
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
1552
141
443
142
0
0
695
1049
64
6
4093

2020
1154
141
458
146
0
0
493
981
63
6
3442

2025
887
140
466
147
0
0
328
926
61
6
2960

2030
802
137
472
146
0
0
287
877
60
6
2788

2035
751
135
477
146
0
0
280
878
60
6
2732

Table 6.9: Emissions of PM2.5 by SNAP 1 sector in Russia, 450 scenario, kilotons
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
183
133
100
473
5
0
42
89
107
193
1324

2020
156
125
105
485
6
0
24
83
105
193
1281

2025
125
119
108
496
6
0
16
79
102
194
1246

- 48 -

2030
104
113
111
508
7
0
16
75
101
194
1228

2035
87
115
112
508
7
0
15
76
101
194
1214

Table 6.10: Emission control costs by SNAP 1 sector in Russia, Current Policies scenario, million /a
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2005
970
18
150
672
55
0
622
21
0
11
2519

2009
1501
26
175
757
77
0
2052
168
0
11
4766

2010
1634
28
181
778
82
0
2410
205
0
11
5328

2015
1688
46
191
911
112
0
4467
234
0
11
7660

2020
1725
57
198
1013
125
0
6147
265
0
11
9540

2025
1841
70
203
1041
140
0
7565
301
0
11
11170

2030
1964
83
207
1038
158
0
8386
337
0
11
12183

2035
2133
85
209
1038
158
0
8911
345
0
11
12890

Table 6.11: Emission control costs by SNAP 1 sector in Russia, New Policies scenario, million /a
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
1647
45
191
911
112
0
4462
232
0
11
7612

2020
1640
52
199
1013
125
0
6122
260
0
11
9421

2025
1690
61
203
1041
140
0
7479
292
0
11
10914

2030
1692
67
205
1038
158
0
8211
321
0
11
11703

2035
1698
64
206
1038
158
0
8570
321
0
11
12067

Table 6.12: Emission control costs by SNAP 1 sector in Russia, 450 scenario, million /a
SNAP sector
1: Power generation
2: Domestic
3: Industrial combust.
4: Industrial processes
5: Fuel extraction
6: Solvents
7: Road traffic
8: Off-road sources
9: Waste management
10: Agriculture
Sum

2015
1591
46
191
911
112
0
4387
229
0
11
7478

2020
1420
56
196
1013
125
0
5832
249
0
11
8901

2025
1185
66
193
1041
140
0
6920
271
0
11
9826

- 49 -

2030
1018
77
191
1038
158
0
7234
286
0
11
10012

2035
894
79
191
1038
158
0
7043
270
0
11
9684

7 Summary and conclusions

This report assesses emissions of air pollutants for energy scenarios analyzed in the World Energy
Outlook 2011. The assessment has been done with the IIASA GAINS model and covers emissions
from 25 regions of the world, consistent with the aggregation of countries in the IEA World Energy
Model. Presented here national emissions do not include emissions form international shipping as well
as cruising emissions from aviation. Also emissions from biomass burning (deforestation, savannah
burning, and vegetation fires) are not included in national totals.
The assessment takes into account the current air pollution control legislation in each country. In the
Current Policies Scenario the world emissions of SO2 (91 million tons in 2009) decrease by eight
percent until 2020. In the period 2020 2035, the emissions increase by about three million tons. The
emissions of NOx (82 million tons in 2009) decrease until 2020 also by about nine percent and then
begin to rise, so that in 2035 they are five percent higher than in 2009. Emissions of PM2.5 (41 million
tons in 2009) remain at approximately the same level over the projection period.
The 450 Scenario, with stringent policies to increase energy efficiency and reduce energy-related CO2
emissions, causes important reductions of emissions of air pollutants compared with the Current
Policies case. In 2035, this reduction is 39 % for SO2, 31 percent for NOx, and nine percent for PM2.5.
Expenditures on air pollution control in the 450 scenario are reduced in 2035 by 137 billion /a
compared with the Current Policy case. In addition, impact of air pollution on human health is much
lower for the scenario with stringent climate measures. In 2035, life years lost in Europe, China and
India attributable to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of PM2.5 decrease in the 450 scenario
by 27 percent, which means saving of about 870 million life years.
These numbers clearly demonstrate large co-benefits of climate policies for air pollution. Thus,
synergies between climate and air pollution control policies need to be taken into account when
developing targets and strategies for reducing negative environmental impacts of air pollution.

- 50 -

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- 51 -

- 52 -

Appendix 1
Breakdown of regions in the World Energy Model

- 53 -

- 54 -

- 55 -

- 56 -

- 57 -

Aggregations
Aggregated WEM region
OECD+
OME
Other countries

Coverage
OECD countries plus non-OECD EU Member States
Other Major Economies (Brazil, China, Russia, South Africa and
countries of the Middle East)
All countries not belonging to OECD+ and OME (except India, which
is shown on the graphs separately)

- 58 -