Managing China Can India Learn To Fish In

Troubled Waters?

Jhinuk Chowdhury
12 May, 2015
While confidence building measures with China must continue, India should also
take a broader view of how the larger Asian region, especially around China, is
evolving, how that affects Beijing, and how India can leverage the situation.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems all braced up for his maiden visit to
Beijing next week. In a bid to connect with a larger audience, he joined
Chinas largest micro-blogging site Weibo.
As he sets the ground for a bilateral summit with the Chinese President Xi
Jinping, there are some pieces of advise from experts which Modi could take
note of. Significant among them is what Arun Shourie said in a media
interview,
look, not at what they are saying, look at what they are
doing.
A clue to this could be the recent softening of Chinese rhetoric on India.
Following the Indian PMs visit to Indian Ocean Region, the Chinese Stateowned Global Times said that Sino-Indian relations are not engaged in a
zero-sum game in IOR. It rather suggests, as two of the Indian Oceans
biggest powers, India and China should hold strategic dialogues concerning
regional security.

In the same breath during an interview, Chinas ambassador to India, Le

Yucheng, said that China was,
willing to strengthen communication and coordination
with India, to link the Belt and Road initiatives with Indias
Spice Route and Mausam projects, and bring tangible benefits
to the peoples in our two countries and throughout the region.
In another statement, China said,
There are lot of perceptions about border issue. So long as the
two leaderships have strong political will we have good
prospects for the resolution of the border issue.
However, when the PM visits Arunachal Pradesh, Beijing registers a strong
protest stating that Arunachal is undeniably an area under huge
dispute.
What looks like a mixed message from Beijing has a deeper tactical
strategy. To sum up this strategy, Shourie, in his interview, rightly quoted
General V Raghavan, who points out how they (China) lull others by talking
strategic reassurance, even as they forment tactical turbulence.
The example is well-corroborated in last years border stand-off between
the two countries even as Modi and Xi spoke of deepening bilateral ties
during the two-nation summit in India.
Perhaps it is in this blendstrategic reassurance and tactical turbulence
lies the clue for India to manage its relations with Beijing.
While steps like relaxing of border trade norms with China ahead of Mr
Modis visit, or asserting that the defence dialogue must continue, India
should also take a broader view of how the larger Asian region, especially
the one around China, is evolving, how that affects Beijing, and how India
can leverage the situation.

Photo: AFP/India
The Northeast Asian bloc is volatile today with North Koreas nuclear
overtures. According to a recent report released by China, Pyongyang has
the capability to manufacture additional nuclear material and weapons. As
per the estimate, North Korea, which has conducted three nuclear tests
since 2006, may already possess 20 warheads with the capacity to
generate additional weapons-grade fissile material. This worries China even
though it has a bilateral relation with North Korea.
However, whats more alarming for Beijing is Washingtons preparations to
counter North Korea in the region. It is excessively militarising its allies in
the region to counter what it perceives as a threat.
South Korea is at the centre of Washingtons efforts towards reinforcing
deterrence and improving capabilities on the Korean Peninsula to defuse
any attack from North Korea. The most publicised step from the US here is
the offering of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system to
Seoul. With THAAD, Seoul can potentially counter any North Korean
preemptive attack within minutes. Beijing, one of South Koreas biggest

trade partners, doesnt want Seoul to accept Pentagons THAAD offer. The
Chinese perceive it as a threat to their own military strategy.
In addition to this, arch-rival Japan is gradually coming out of its selfimposed military pacifism. The country now is moving towards a military
build up and aligning with allies like the US in its defence cooperation. The
recent summit between the Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and President Obama
had military ties as one of its focal points.
One of the outcomes of the Japan-US meeting was the drawing up of new
guidelines for defence cooperation between the two countries which
eliminates current geographic limitations on activities by Japanese forces.
As per the US, the disputed East China Sea is under Japanese
administration.
This has obviously raised concerns in Beijing.
Now India is not only expanding its defence ties with the US, but also
getting closer to Japan in military terms. India should further focus on
deepening ties with Japan to create a counter pressure on Beijing.
In the Southeast Asian region, India views countries like Vietnamin
dispute with China over South China Seaa major partner for its Act East
policy. President Pranab Mukherjee visited Hanoi in September last year.
The visit concluded with the issue of a joint statement that declared
defence cooperation as an important pillar in the bilateral relations
between the two countries.
Interestingly, Vietnam is also one of the focus countries for the US Asian
rebalance policywhich incidentally will be based on military ties with allies
and partners in the region. The US recently offered the country its guided
missile destroyer and a littoral combat ship to engage with Vietnamese
Navy vessels.
Incessant arming of Pakistan by China has always worried India. What New

Delhi could do is use these partnerships in the region, especially the one
with Japan to pressure Beijing to commit that its deepening defence ties
with Islamabad will in no way threaten Indias security.
After all, the last thing China would want is Indiaeven remotelylining up
with US allies in the region against China.
Both the US and China have high commercial stakes in the waters of the
Indian Ocean Region (IOR) While the US wants to secure its trade highway
traversing the Indian Ocean, for China, now the worlds largest net oil
importer, the Malacca Strait is a key choke point for its oil supply.
Beijing has always been concerned about the security of its energy imports,
more so about the reliance on American forces along the route from the
Middle East and Africa transiting through the Indian Ocean and the Strait of
Malacca.
While for Washington, with its preoccupation with the Middle East and focus
on Southeast Asia, a growing maritime power in India serves as a good
stabilizer in the region counter-weighing China.
For Beijing, closer ties with India in the IOR is in its long-term interest,
where building of a combined maritime might will reduce its dependence on
American forces in the region.
Also the political situation in strategically crucial nations like Sri Lanka, a
key gateway to the Middle East and Central Asia, is changing, with a proIndia government coming to power, led by President Sirisena whose first
foreign visit after assuming office was to New Delhi, a meet that culminated
in the inking of the Indo-Sri Lanka civil nuclear and defence cooperation
agreements.
To maintain its influence in the island nation, China will need India. This is
evident in the recent proposal by President Xi for a trilateral partnership
between Beijing, New Delhi and Colombo.

So, while India should seek ways to be a beneficiary to all the economic
initiatives of China, it should also be deft enough to deploy the same
pressure tacticsof getting closer to Chinas contenderssomething
Beijing has been doing to arm-twist India by aligning with New Delhis
rivals.
Posted by Thavam