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Mtodo de Nash
Elaborado por:
-ngeles Vera Jess Giovanni
-Jurez ngeles Csar Enrique
-Sierra Infante Fernando
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Introduccin
Mtodos estadsticos
Se basan en considerar que el caudal mximo anual, es una variable
aleatoria que tiene una cierta distribucin.
Datos necesarios:
Registro de caudales mximos anuales: Cuanto mayor sea el tamao del
registro, mayor ser tambin la aproximacin del clculo del caudal de
diseo el cual se calcula para un determinado perodo de retorno.
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Ecuacin de regresin
lineal
Mnimos cuadrados
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Mnimos cuadrados
Mnimos cuadrados es una tcnica de anlisis
numrico enmarcada dentro de la optimizacin
matemtica, en la que, dados un conjunto de
pares ordenados: variable independiente,
variable dependiente, y una familia de funciones,
se intenta encontrar la funcin continua.
En sntesis es un procedimiento objetivo para
ajustar una recta a un conjunto
de datos presentados en
un diagrama de dispersin.
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Mtodo de Nash
El mtodo de Nash fue propuesto hacia finales de
los aos sesenta, y permite estimar el gasto
mximo (
) asociado a un perodo de retorno
(Tr), a travs de una ecuacin de regresin lineal.
Nash considera que el valor del caudal para un
determinado perodo de retorno se puede calcular
con la ecuacin:
lo (
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)Q
1
Anlisis de la Frmula
lo (
) Q ------------- (1)
En donde:
a y c = Constantes obtenidas a partir del registro de gastos
mximos anuales.
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) (
En donde:
= Gasto en
/seg
= log log
=
+1
----- (3)
--- (4)
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----------- (2)
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------ (5)
=
=
log (
/seg.
En donde:
/seg.
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Intervalo de variacin
( 1)
1
1
(
2
------- (6)
En donde:
=
------------- (7)
log (
------------- (8)
=
=
------------- (9)
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Ao
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
Qmax
(m/s)
3850
3200
3660
4220
5980
5001
9800
3912
3623
3100
2800
2920
3950
3600
3112
3953
9010
3665
2521
3640
5223
90740
Ejemplo:
Con los siguientes datos obtenidos de la
estacin hidromtrica
D-001 obtener:
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Procedimiento:
1. Se ordenan los datos de mayor a
menor gasto y se les asigna un valor mi
en funcin del orden decreciente.
2. Se calcula
expresin:
con la siguiente
+1
=
3. Se calcula
expresin.
con la siguiente
= log log
4. Se calcula
1
(Por ao).
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) (
(
)
=
= 2,198.1906
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lo (
)Q
1
= 2,198.1906
= 3,595.9567
= 60
60
= 2,198.1906 + (3,595.9567)
log(
)
60 1
= ,
m/seg
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= 21 11.84 12.3967
= 21 462,853,522 90,740
= 94.9618
=1,486,176,362
log (
1
1
(
2
=
=
1486176362
+ 2.1367 (0.5903)
21 (21 1)
1
1
(342044.9932)
(1486176362
21 2 94.9618
94.9618
= 1,421.7677 /
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)=-2.1367
12.3967
=
= 0.5903
21
= *
( 1)
log (
Intervalo de Variacin
= ,
= ,
m/seg + 1,421.7677 /
.
m/seg + 1,421.7677 /
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= ,
m/seg 1,421.7677 /
=
=
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1486176362
= -0.2879
Con este resultado concluimos que los resultados obtenidos por mtodo de Nash son
confiables ya que Rxy est dentro del intervalo.
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Tarea
Los gastos mximos anuales registrados en la
estacin hidromtrica Huixtla se muestran en la
tabla.
a)Se planea construir un bordo para proteccin
contra inundaciones, calcular el gasto de diseo
para un periodo de retorno de 75 aos
Nc= 182
Lc= 95.21
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Ac= 321.14
Referencias:
Tesis: Alternativa de Proyecto Ejecutivo proteccin de la margen izquierda del ro
Bobos, localidad de Javier Rojo Gmez, Tlapacoyan Veracruz
Flix Axayacatl Rodrguez Rodrguez.
Monografa: ANLISIS DE LA SOCAVACIN DESDE EL PUNTO DE VISTA
HIDRULICO E HIDROLOGICO DEL PUENTE PIXQUIAC, UBICADO
EN LA LOCALIDAD Y MUNICIPIO DE COAPEPEC, VER.
OSWALDO SADOT HUESCA DAZ
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Agradecemos su atencin
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