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l Equity Research l

5 March 2014

Indonesia l Emerging Companies

Sido Muncul

NOT RATED
Standard Chartered Equity Research does not cover this company
and nothing herein should be interpreted to be a recommendation
or price target with respect to the company.

NON-COVERED COMPANY VISIT NOTE

PRICE as at 4 March 2014

IDR 885.00
Key points
Sido Muncul is the market leader in Indonesias traditional
herbal medicines market. Capricorn Indonesia Consult
estimates that the companys Tolak Angin brand had a 75%
market share by sales in the herbal cold remedy segment in
2012.

Bloomberg code:

Est. free float (%)

19% Net debt (cash) (IDR bn)

The company is also the leading producer of a powdered


energy drink, under the Kuku Bima brand, with a 43%
market share by sales in 2012, according to IMS.

Established

1975 Historical EPS (IDR)

Listed

2013 EPS 3-year CAGR (%)

NA

NA EPS 7-year CAGR (%)

NA

Sido Munculs revenue grew at a CAGR of 13% over 201012. Management is aiming to maintain revenue growth at
15-16% p.a. over next three years and is planning to deepen
the penetration of its products in modern trade.

Auditors, since

SIDO IJ PER, historical (x)

Mkt cap (USD mn)


12m range (IDR)
3m value traded (USD mn)
No. of shares (m)

NM ROE (%)

Secondary placement
Year-end

Stephen Hui
Stephen.Hui@sc.com
+65 6596 8514

-9
(112)
26

37

Dec DPS 3-year CAGR (%)

NA

Hidayat family 81%

Major shareholder
Source: Annual report

Source: FactSet

Alvin.Witirto@sc.com
+65 6596 8530

30

BDO Historical DPS (IDR)

Why we visited Sido Muncul


Sido Muncul plans to more than double the monthly production
capacity of Tolak Angin to 150mn sachets in 2016 from 70mn
sachets in 2013. Management is also planning to triple the
contribution of modern trade to c.15% of revenue in 2016, from
c.5% in 2012. The company was recently listed on the Indonesia
Stock Exchange in December 2013. It is the first herbal medicine
producer to be listed in Indonesia.

Alvin Witirto

10.3

15,000 Net gearing (%)

Share price performance (Bt)

Read-across to other companies


Within the regional herbal medicines sector, Eu Yan Sang trades
at a lower 2012 PER of 21x than Sido Munculs 34x. Eu Yan is the
leading herbal medicine player in ASEAN and Hong Kong.

4.2

580-895 PBR, historical (x)

What Sido Muncul does (and why)


Sido Muncul is the leading player in traditional herbal medicine
(Jamu) in Indonesia, best known for its Tolak Angin brand of
herbal remedy for cold. Capricorn estimates that the company had
a 75% market share in the herbal cold remedy segment in 2012.
The company is also the market leader in powdered energy drinks
with a 43% market share by sales in 2012, according to IMS.

Sido Muncul

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX (Rebased)

950
900
850
800
750
700
650
Dec-13

Mar-14

Revenue breakdown by segment


3,000

Energy drink

Herbal medicine

Health drinks

Others

Candy & drinks

2,500

231

2,000
IDR bn

Valuations and share price performance


Sido Muncul shares rose 53% since their listing in December
2013, outperforming the Indonesia pharmaceutical sector and the
JCI index, which rose 10% and 19% during the same period. The
stock has traded at a historical PER of 34.4x, compared with 32.5x
for its peers in the Indonesian consumer health sector. Currently,
the street is not covering the stock.

34.6

1,158 Yield, historical (%)

140
1,500

265

587

784

1,202

1,339

1,265

2010

2011

2012

483

1,000
500
0

Source: Company

Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix


All rights reserved. Standard Chartered Bank 2014

http://research.standardchartered.com

Equity Research l Sido Muncul

Analyst visit note


Background. Sido Muncul began producing traditional herbal
remedies in 1940. It was established by Mrs. Rahkmat Sulistio
as a home industry. The Hidayat family remains the
controlling shareholder of the company with a combined
ownership interest of 81%. The largest shareholder is Desy
Sulistio Hidayat (40%), the matriarch of the Hidayat family,
followed by her children, Irwan Hidayat, Sofyan Hidayat,
Johan Hidayat, David Hidayat and Sandra Linata Hidayat with
8.1% ownership stakes each.

Candies & drinks (11% of revenue, 5% of gross profit)

Industry overview. During 2008-12, Indonesians herbal


medicine consumption grew at a CAGR of 34% by volume
and 16% by sales, according to Capricorns estimates.
Euromonitor estimates that the herbal medicines sales could
grow at a CAGR of 10% to USD 800mn in 2017 from USD
500mn in 2012.

Health drinks & others (3% of revenue, 5% of gross profit)

Business segments. The company has 200 products across


five categories herbal medicines, energy drinks, health
drinks, candies and supplements. The herbal medicines and
energy drinks categories accounted for c.84% of revenue in
2012.

The segment has second highest gross profit margin at


57%. Management expects this segment to deliver revenue
growth of 20-25% p.a. in the next three years.

Distribution. Sido Muncul distributes its products through


160,000 wholesalers covering 76 cities in Indonesia.
Management believes that the eastern Indonesian market still
has a significant potential from a distribution standpoint.
Herbal medicines (33% of 2012 revenue; 56% of gross
profit)
Sido Munculs flagship product in this segment is Tolak
Angin, which accounts for 85% of this segments revenue.
This segment is the companys most-profitable business,
given its 65% gross profit margin, compared with the
consolidated businesss gross profit margin of 38%.
Tolak Angin is a household name in Indonesia. It was
frequently featured as a top brand in the herbal medicines
segment by Frontier Consulting Group, Markeeters and
MarkPlus Insight during 2011-12.
Management sees this segment as Sido Munculs growth
driver over the next few years. It expects revenue from this
segment to increase by 20% p.a. in the next three years.

Sido Muncul produces instant functional coffee products,


such as ginseng coffee and ginger coffee, under the Kuku
Bima and Sido Muncul brands, respectively.
The segment, which also includes candy products, carries
a 16% gross profit margin. Management expects revenue
from this segment to increase by 10-15% p.a. in the next
three years.

The segment caters to Sido Munculs portfolio of instant


herbal drink products, which are largely sold in powdered
sachets. Several key brands under this segment are Jahe
Wangi, Alang Sari, Kunyit Asama and Beras Kencur. These
products are targeted largely at the mid-segment.

The segment also includes around 50 SKU of herbal


supplement products. Management said these products are
sold through drug store chains, and are targeted at the midto-upper segment.
Strong growth outlook. Management expects to maintain
Sido Munculs revenue growth at 15-16% p.a. over 2014-15,
driven by volume growth in the herbal medicines segment and
improved growth performance of its energy drink segment. It
believes that higher penetration into the modern trade
channel, which accounted for only c.5% of total revenue in
2012, will also sustain the double-digit revenue growth.
Management said it aims for the earnings growth to be at
least in line with revenue growth over the same period.
Exposure to imported raw materials. Sido Munculs herbal
medicine products largely rely on locally sourced raw material,
and only 10-15% of COGS is attributable to imported raw
material. However, its energy drink business is much more
dependent on imported raw materials, which account for
c.90% of COGS. Management said this is partly the reason
for its lower gross profit margin.

The companys flagship brand within this segment is its


Kuku Bima energy drink, which is targeted at the low
income segment. Management said the products
positioning is also reflected in the greater reliance on the
traditional trade channel in distributing this product.

Expansion plan and capex. Management said it has set a


capex budget of IDR 219bn for 2014 and IDR 137bn for 2015.
It is planning to double the production capacity for the flagship
product, Tolak Angin, to 140-150mn sachets per month in
2016. Management estimates its 10-hectare factory to cost
IDR 196bn. In addition, it also plans to expand its herb
extraction plant and warehouse facilities.

Although this segment was the largest contributor of


revenue in 2012 with 43%, it contributed only 35% of gross
profit, given its low gross profit margin of 25%. This is partly
due to lower price points of the products in this segment.

Net cash position. Sido Muncul had a net cash of IDR 112bn
in 2012. Management expects the company to remain in net
cash position in 2014, as its capex could be fully funded with
the IPO proceeds.

Management expects the segments revenue growth to be


flat in 2014, until it introduces ready-to-drink products that
are gaining popularity in the market.

Dividend policy. Sido Muncul maintains a dividend policy of


distributing at least 20% of net profit.

Energy drinks (53% of revenue, 35% of gross profit)

5 March 2014

Equity Research l Sido Muncul

Valuation
Figure 1: Peer comparison
3M avg
Price
Market value
Target Price
cap traded
Name

Ticker

Rating

(LCY) (LCY)

(USD
mn)

Sido Muncul

SIDO IJ

NR

890

1,151

(USD
mn)

Last

2 year
EPS

PER (x)

Div.
Yield ROCE
Price /
PEG sales EV/EBITDA
(%)
(%)

FYE FY0 FY1 FY2 CAGR 2 years

- 12/12 34.4

NA

FY0 FY0 FY1 FY2 FY1

FY1

NA

NA

NA

4.5 24.4 NA NA

NA

NA

Pharmaceutical & consumer health


Kalbe Farma

KLBF IJ

NR

1,430

5,780

7.5 12/12 38.6 34.6 29.2

15%

1.9

4.0 27.1 23.3 19.6

1.4

27.5

Tempo Scan

TSPC IJ

NR

3,345

1,298

0.2 12/12 24.0 21.8 16.7

20%

0.9

1.8 16.7 13.6 10.6

2.7

20.4

Kimia Farma

KAEF IJ

NR

735

352

NA

NA

NA

0.8 12.8 NA NA

NA

14.9

27.5 28.2 23.0

17%

1.4

2.2 18.9 18.4 15.1

2.0

20.9

0.3 12/13 19.9

Average

NA

Herbal medicine
Eu Yan Sang

EYSAN SP OP

0.85

294

0.2 06/13 20.7 17.3 15.6

15%

1.0

1.1 15.0 9.8 8.7

3.1

12.3

Hai-O

HAIO MK

NR

2.47

148

0.1 04/13 10.4 10.7

9.7

3%

2.9

1.7 6.0 5.8 5.4

5.1

20.4

Power Root

PWRT MK

NR

1.88

173

0.2 02/13 35.6 17.1

NA

NA

NA

1.9 19.5 11.8 NA

3.2

18.3

NR

11.42

1,221

2.3 12/12 29.3 43.1 26.0

6%

4.2

26.4 61.5 34.7 15.6

0.0

32.4

24.0 22.1 17.1

8%

2.7

7.8 25.5 15.5 9.9

2.9

20.9

Beijing Tong Ren Tang 8138 HK

1.03

Average
Note: Share prices as of 4 March 2013; Bloomberg estimates for NR stocks
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research estimates

Key charts
Figure 2: Traditional herbal medicine sales and volume
Volume (RHS)

14

13

10

8.5

9.2

10.2

20

80%

15

7.2

100%

10

Volume (mn kg)

MArket size (IDR tn)

12

25

2
0

% market share by sales

Market size

Figure 3: Market share breakdown

0
2008

2009

2010

2011

Sido Muncul

Others

25%
57%

60%
40%

75%
43%

20%
0%

2012

Traditional herbal medicine

Energy drink

Source: Capricorn Indonesia Consult

Source: Capricorn Indonesia Consult, IMS ITMA

Figure 4: Revenue and gross profit breakdown 2012

Figure 5: Gross profit margin 2012

Energy drink

Herbal medicine

100%
265

Candy & drinks

Health drinks

Others

40%
20%

1,265
321

0%

5 March 2014

50%
40%
25%

30%

16%

20%

10%
0%

Revenue (IDR bn)


Source: Company

% gross profit margin

% Total

60%

513

57%

60%

80%
784

65%

70%

41

Gross profit (IDR bn)

Herbal medicine

Health drinks

Energy drink

Candy & drinks

Source: Company

Equity Research l Sido Muncul

Trend analysis and three-year financial data


Growth

Income statement (IDR bn)

Sales growth & earnings growth


Sales growth

Adj. Earnings growth

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2011

2012

Year end: Dec


Sales revenue
Gross profit
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
EBIT
Net interest (expense) / income
Others
Income tax
PAT
Minorities
Net income

2010
1,867
686
360
(24)
335
3
1
(102)
237
(0)
237

2011
2,198
878
468
(29)
439
11
5
(115)
340
(0)
340

2012
2,392
921
542
(38)
504
5
4
(126)
388
(0)
388

2010
335
(24)
(98)
(1,068)
(855)
(68)
(923)
(96)
(4)
10
(97)
1,258
149

2011
439
(29)
(18)
(65)
327
(143)
183
(111)
(1)
19
(160)
(87)
(156)

2012
504
(38)
(45)
(442)
(20)
4
(16)
(181)
(1)
43
(651)
1,095
289

2010
217
0
57
172
167
277
890
99
1
236
209
544
346
0
346
890

2011
307
0
326
206
208
122
1,169
155
1
253
224
633
535
0
535
1,169

2012
442
0
802
236
261
411
2,151
193
299
0
355
846
1,305
0
1,305
2,151

2010
16
NA.
37
(68)
23
15,000
68%
41%
-5%
-395%
-12%
41%
(120.6)

2011
23
43%
11
5
36
15,000
63%
43%
-5%
-380%
25%
32%
(41.4)

2012
26
14%
37
(13)
87
15,000
30%
24%
-8%
-481%
-9%
19%
(97.0)

Margins
Cash flow (IDR bn)

EBIT margin & sales growth


EBIT margin

22%

Net profit margin

20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
2010

2011

2012

Cash flow
Op Cash Flow Generated & Capex
IDR bn

After-tax operational cash flow


Capex

400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1,000
2010

Balance sheet (IDR bn)

2011

2012

Balance sheet
Net debt (cash) / equity
60%

Net debt/equity (%)

40%
20%
0%
-20%
2009

2010

2011

2012

Returns
ROE & ROCE
ROE

Post-tax ROCE

90%
70%
50%
30%
10%
2010
Source: Bloomberg

5 March 2014

2011

Year end: Dec


Operating profit
Depreciation & amortisation
Working capital
Others
Operational cash flow
Tax paid
After-tax operational cash flow
Capex
Net interest
Debt
Dividends
Others
Net flow

2012

Year end: Dec


Tangible assets
Other LT assets
Stocks
Debtors
Cash and liquid assets
Other ST assets
Total Assets
Current creditors
Current borrowings
Long-term borrowings
Others
Total liabilities
Shareholders funds
Minority interests
Equity
Total capital employed

Key data & ratio


Year end: Dec
EPS (IDR)
Chg %
DPS (IDR)
CFPS (IDR)
BVPS (IDR)
Wtd avg shares (m)
ROE (%)
Post-tax ROCE (%)
Capex/sales (%)
Capex/depreciation (%)
Net debt/equity (%)
Total debt/Total capital (%)
Net interest cover (x)
Source: Company, Bloomberg

Equity Research l Sido Muncul

Disclosures appendix
The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, Standard Chartered Bank Singapore Branch, Standard
Chartered Securities (India) Limited, Standard Chartered Securities Korea Limited and/or one or more of its affiliates (together with its group of companies, SCB)
and the research analyst(s) named in this report. THIS RESEARCH HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCED IN THE UNITED STATES.
Analyst Certification Disclosure: The research analyst or analysts responsible for the content of this research report certify that: (1) the views expressed and
attributed to the research analyst or analysts in the research report accurately reflect their personal opinion(s) about the subject securities and issuers and/or other
subject matter as appropriate; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
contained in this research report. On a general basis, the efficacy of recommendations is a factor in the performance appraisals of analysts.
Where disclosure date appears below, this means the day prior to the report date. All share prices quoted are the closing price for the business day prior to the
date of the report, unless otherwise stated.

Recommendation Distribution and Investment Banking Relationships


% of covered companies
currently assigned this rating

% of companies assigned this rating with which SCB has provided


investment banking services over the past 12 months

OUTPERFORM

53.2%

14.5%

IN-LINE

35.2%

12.8%

UNDERPERFORM
As of 31 December 2013

11.6%

8.3%

Research Recommendation
Terminology
OUTPERFORM (OP)
IN-LINE (IL)
UNDERPERFORM (UP)

Definitions
The total return on the security is expected to outperform the relevant market index by 5% or more over the next 12 months
The total return on the security is not expected to outperform or underperform the relevant market index by 5% or more over the next
12 months
The total return on the security is expected to underperform the relevant market index by 5% or more over the next 12 months

SCB uses an investment horizon of 12 months for its price targets.


Additional information, including disclosures, with respect to any securities referred to herein will be available upon request. Requests should be sent to
scer@sc.com.
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Equity Research l Sido Muncul

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