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5 March 2014
Sido Muncul
NOT RATED
Standard Chartered Equity Research does not cover this company
and nothing herein should be interpreted to be a recommendation
or price target with respect to the company.
IDR 885.00
Key points
Sido Muncul is the market leader in Indonesias traditional
herbal medicines market. Capricorn Indonesia Consult
estimates that the companys Tolak Angin brand had a 75%
market share by sales in the herbal cold remedy segment in
2012.
Bloomberg code:
Established
Listed
NA
NA
Sido Munculs revenue grew at a CAGR of 13% over 201012. Management is aiming to maintain revenue growth at
15-16% p.a. over next three years and is planning to deepen
the penetration of its products in modern trade.
Auditors, since
NM ROE (%)
Secondary placement
Year-end
Stephen Hui
Stephen.Hui@sc.com
+65 6596 8514
-9
(112)
26
37
NA
Major shareholder
Source: Annual report
Source: FactSet
Alvin.Witirto@sc.com
+65 6596 8530
30
Alvin Witirto
10.3
4.2
Sido Muncul
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
Dec-13
Mar-14
Energy drink
Herbal medicine
Health drinks
Others
2,500
231
2,000
IDR bn
34.6
140
1,500
265
587
784
1,202
1,339
1,265
2010
2011
2012
483
1,000
500
0
Source: Company
http://research.standardchartered.com
Net cash position. Sido Muncul had a net cash of IDR 112bn
in 2012. Management expects the company to remain in net
cash position in 2014, as its capex could be fully funded with
the IPO proceeds.
5 March 2014
Valuation
Figure 1: Peer comparison
3M avg
Price
Market value
Target Price
cap traded
Name
Ticker
Rating
(LCY) (LCY)
(USD
mn)
Sido Muncul
SIDO IJ
NR
890
1,151
(USD
mn)
Last
2 year
EPS
PER (x)
Div.
Yield ROCE
Price /
PEG sales EV/EBITDA
(%)
(%)
- 12/12 34.4
NA
FY1
NA
NA
NA
4.5 24.4 NA NA
NA
NA
KLBF IJ
NR
1,430
5,780
15%
1.9
1.4
27.5
Tempo Scan
TSPC IJ
NR
3,345
1,298
20%
0.9
2.7
20.4
Kimia Farma
KAEF IJ
NR
735
352
NA
NA
NA
0.8 12.8 NA NA
NA
14.9
17%
1.4
2.0
20.9
Average
NA
Herbal medicine
Eu Yan Sang
EYSAN SP OP
0.85
294
15%
1.0
3.1
12.3
Hai-O
HAIO MK
NR
2.47
148
9.7
3%
2.9
5.1
20.4
Power Root
PWRT MK
NR
1.88
173
NA
NA
NA
3.2
18.3
NR
11.42
1,221
6%
4.2
0.0
32.4
8%
2.7
2.9
20.9
1.03
Average
Note: Share prices as of 4 March 2013; Bloomberg estimates for NR stocks
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Key charts
Figure 2: Traditional herbal medicine sales and volume
Volume (RHS)
14
13
10
8.5
9.2
10.2
20
80%
15
7.2
100%
10
12
25
2
0
Market size
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
Sido Muncul
Others
25%
57%
60%
40%
75%
43%
20%
0%
2012
Energy drink
Energy drink
Herbal medicine
100%
265
Health drinks
Others
40%
20%
1,265
321
0%
5 March 2014
50%
40%
25%
30%
16%
20%
10%
0%
% Total
60%
513
57%
60%
80%
784
65%
70%
41
Herbal medicine
Health drinks
Energy drink
Source: Company
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2011
2012
2010
1,867
686
360
(24)
335
3
1
(102)
237
(0)
237
2011
2,198
878
468
(29)
439
11
5
(115)
340
(0)
340
2012
2,392
921
542
(38)
504
5
4
(126)
388
(0)
388
2010
335
(24)
(98)
(1,068)
(855)
(68)
(923)
(96)
(4)
10
(97)
1,258
149
2011
439
(29)
(18)
(65)
327
(143)
183
(111)
(1)
19
(160)
(87)
(156)
2012
504
(38)
(45)
(442)
(20)
4
(16)
(181)
(1)
43
(651)
1,095
289
2010
217
0
57
172
167
277
890
99
1
236
209
544
346
0
346
890
2011
307
0
326
206
208
122
1,169
155
1
253
224
633
535
0
535
1,169
2012
442
0
802
236
261
411
2,151
193
299
0
355
846
1,305
0
1,305
2,151
2010
16
NA.
37
(68)
23
15,000
68%
41%
-5%
-395%
-12%
41%
(120.6)
2011
23
43%
11
5
36
15,000
63%
43%
-5%
-380%
25%
32%
(41.4)
2012
26
14%
37
(13)
87
15,000
30%
24%
-8%
-481%
-9%
19%
(97.0)
Margins
Cash flow (IDR bn)
22%
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
2010
2011
2012
Cash flow
Op Cash Flow Generated & Capex
IDR bn
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1,000
2010
2011
2012
Balance sheet
Net debt (cash) / equity
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
2009
2010
2011
2012
Returns
ROE & ROCE
ROE
Post-tax ROCE
90%
70%
50%
30%
10%
2010
Source: Bloomberg
5 March 2014
2011
2012
Disclosures appendix
The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, Standard Chartered Bank Singapore Branch, Standard
Chartered Securities (India) Limited, Standard Chartered Securities Korea Limited and/or one or more of its affiliates (together with its group of companies, SCB)
and the research analyst(s) named in this report. THIS RESEARCH HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCED IN THE UNITED STATES.
Analyst Certification Disclosure: The research analyst or analysts responsible for the content of this research report certify that: (1) the views expressed and
attributed to the research analyst or analysts in the research report accurately reflect their personal opinion(s) about the subject securities and issuers and/or other
subject matter as appropriate; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
contained in this research report. On a general basis, the efficacy of recommendations is a factor in the performance appraisals of analysts.
Where disclosure date appears below, this means the day prior to the report date. All share prices quoted are the closing price for the business day prior to the
date of the report, unless otherwise stated.
OUTPERFORM
53.2%
14.5%
IN-LINE
35.2%
12.8%
UNDERPERFORM
As of 31 December 2013
11.6%
8.3%
Research Recommendation
Terminology
OUTPERFORM (OP)
IN-LINE (IL)
UNDERPERFORM (UP)
Definitions
The total return on the security is expected to outperform the relevant market index by 5% or more over the next 12 months
The total return on the security is not expected to outperform or underperform the relevant market index by 5% or more over the next
12 months
The total return on the security is expected to underperform the relevant market index by 5% or more over the next 12 months
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5 March 2014