China Power Generation

by Eduardo Petazze
Last update. December 12, 2015
This document summarizes data from electricity generation in mainland China, including a projection
for the rest of 2016/2021

Relevant comments:
In 2014 the share of thermal generation decreased from 80.8% to 77.0%, anticipating for 2015
two additional percentage points reduction.
In 2014 only 96.58% equivalent energy was required for each real unit of GDP based on 2010 =
100, it estimated that by 2015 that percentage of intensity in energy use will be reduced to
93.17%, base 2010 = 100
It contributes to these savings minor transmission losses and a growing share of the
tertiary sector in GDP composition.
Modest growth rates of power generation observed in the last four quarters, reflects the
weakness of the Chinese economy, but can also be a limiting factor for the social development
and economic growth.

Main data
Power Generation in TW h (1,000 Gwh), Gross
Total
YoY
Thermal Share Hydro
2,749.43 14.75% 2,302.06 83.7%
385.90
3,180.56 15.68% 2,671.25 84.0%
433.19
3,392.30
6.66% 2,774.35 81.8%
522.68
3,621.28
6.75% 2,944.65 81.3%
553.51
4,127.35 13.97% 3,295.83 79.9%
659.43
4,577.44 10.91% 3,772.92 82.4%
609.16
4,771.30
4.24% 3,749.75 78.6%
747.15
5,168.71
8.33% 4,177.81 80.8%
757.70
5,432.09
5.10% 4,184.82 77.0%
944.11
5,599.67
3.09% 4,212.19 75.2%
981.97
5,721.20
2.17% 4,262.00 74.5%
995.10
5,846.20
2.18% 4,341.70 74.3% 1,007.80
5,974.60
2.20% 4,440.30 74.3% 1,020.50
6,106.60
2.21% 4,551.60 74.5% 1,033.20
6,242.00
2.22% 4,669.20 74.8% 1,045.90
6,380.10
2.21% 4,793.00 75.1% 1,058.60

data
Other
61.47
76.12
95.27
123.12
172.09
195.36
274.40
233.20
303.16
405.51
464.10
496.70
513.80
521.80
526.90
528.50

Real GDP, 2010=100

Index
YoY
66.23 12.63%
75.58 14.12%
82.84
9.60%
90.45
9.19%
100.00 10.56%
109.49
9.49%
117.97
7.75%
127.04
7.69%
136.27
7.27%
145.61
6.85%
154.70
6.24%
163.77
5.86%

Power Generation in TW h (1,000 Gwh), Gross data

Total
YoY
Thermal Share Hydro
Other
2013Q1
1,176.75
4.17%
995.69 84.6%
129.79 51.27
2013Q2
1,235.11
6.94%
980.41 79.4%
197.35 57.35
2013Q3
1,409.19 11.56% 1,102.60 78.2%
247.88 58.71
2013Q4
1,347.66 10.14% 1,099.11 81.6%
182.68 65.87
2014Q1
1,268.94
7.83% 1,059.39 83.5%
144.37 65.18
2014Q2
1,324.68
7.25% 1,027.52 77.6%
223.43 73.73
2014Q3
1,454.89
3.24% 1,033.83 71.1%
345.40 75.66
2014Q4
1,383.58
2.67% 1,064.08 76.9%
230.91 88.59
2015Q1
1,310.27
3.26% 1,046.87 79.9%
171.53 91.87
2015Q2
1,398.78
5.59% 1,041.05 74.4%
251.88 105.85
2015Q3
1,479.27
1.68% 1,058.15 71.5%
321.89 99.23
2015Q4
1,411.35
2.01% 1,066.12 75.5%
236.67 108.56
Latest data Seasonally adjusted is our own estimate
Own estimate
Power Generation in TW h (1,000 Gwh), Gross data
Total
YoY
Thermal Share Hydro
Other
Jan-15
490.70 13.38%
403.05 82.1%
56.52 31.13
Feb-15
365.39 -4.69%
291.43 79.8%
47.18 26.78
Mar-15
454.18
0.31%
352.39 77.6%
67.83 33.96
Apr-15
449.05
5.65%
345.04 76.8%
69.89 34.12
May-15
475.20
7.61%
359.66 75.7%
79.15 36.39
Jun-15
474.53
3.59%
336.35 70.9%
102.84 35.34
Jul-15
508.96
0.83%
365.77 71.9%
109.84 33.35
Aug-15
515.53
3.95%
377.79 73.3%
104.60 33.14
Sep-15
454.78
0.13%
314.59 69.2%
107.45 32.74
Oct-15
445.35
0.16%
310.72 69.8%
99.47 35.16
Nov-15
466.00
3.85%
353.20 75.8%
77.60 35.20
Dec-15
500.00
2.00%
402.20 80.4%
59.60 38.20
Jan-16
500.50
2.00%
406.00 81.1%
57.20 37.30
Feb-16
373.40
2.19%
292.00 78.2%
47.90 33.50
Mar-16
464.40
2.25%
356.50 76.8%
68.80 39.10
Apr-16
458.70
2.15%
349.30 76.1%
70.80 38.60
May-16
485.50
2.17%
364.80 75.1%
80.20 40.50
Jun-16
484.90
2.19%
341.40 70.4%
104.20 39.30
Jul-16
520.10
2.19%
370.00 71.1%
111.30 38.80
Aug-16
526.80
2.19%
382.10 72.5%
106.00 38.70
Sep-16
464.70
2.18%
318.00 68.4%
108.90 37.80
Oct-16
455.10
2.19%
314.50 69.1%
100.80 39.80
Nov-16
476.20
2.19%
358.40 75.3%
78.60 39.20
Dec-16
510.90
2.18%
409.00 80.1%
60.40 41.50
Provisional latest data Seasonally adjusted is our own estimate
Own estimate

Seasonally Adjusted
Total
QoQ
1,244.46
1.19%
1,267.99
1.89%
1,320.44
4.14%
1,335.82
1.17%
1,346.69
0.81%
1,348.02
0.10%
1,364.92
1.25%
1,372.46
0.55%
1,387.54
1.10%
1,405.63
1.30%
1,398.71
-0.49%
1,407.79
0.65%

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Latest data
Own estimate

Seasonally Adjusted
Total
MoM
475.28
3.62%
454.60 -4.35%
457.66
0.67%
467.03
2.05%
471.45
0.95%
467.16 -0.91%
464.09 -0.66%
469.80
1.23%
464.82 -1.06%
465.53
0.15%
472.04
1.40%
470.21 -0.39%
462.53 -1.63%
452.97 -2.07%
464.33
2.51%
465.03
0.15%
466.15
0.24%
467.24
0.23%
468.12
0.19%
469.05
0.20%
469.90
0.18%
470.59
0.15%
471.43
0.18%
472.32
0.19%

Note:
However, the reduction of energy consumption per unit of output, and reducing the share of
thermal generation in the supply of energy and power, still remain high growth rates of thermal
generation.
In that sense, not implemented a policy of increased use of natural gas (imported from Russia)
for more efficient and cleaner thermal generation increased demand for coal and oil will be the
result.

Also see: China, Gross Domestic Product 2015 and 2016 projected

Addendum: Domestic production of crude oil and condensates

China Crude Oil plus condensates production
10000 tons
YoY
(000) tpd (000) bpd
YoY
18,372.0 1.68%
503.3
3,672.8 1.78%
18,671.0 1.63%
511.6
3,729.3 1.54%
19,002.4 1.77%
519.2
3,790.3 1.64%
18,960.6 -0.22%
519.4
3,795.8 0.14%
20,383.2 7.50%
558.4
4,077.9 7.43%
20,364.6 -0.09%
558.0
4,059.4 -0.45%
20,699.8 1.65%
565.6
4,085.1 0.63%
20,820.3 0.58%
570.4
4,164.2 1.94%
20,945.1 0.60%
573.9
4,189.4 0.61%
21,381.2 2.08%
585.8
4,276.2 2.07%
21,229.2 -0.71%
580.0
4,234.3 -0.98%
21,163.7 -0.31%
579.8
4,232.9 -0.03%
21,210.7 0.22%
581.1
4,242.2 0.22%
21,463.4 1.19%
588.0
4,292.6 1.19%
21,762.8 1.39%
594.6
4,340.6 1.12%
21,953.1 0.87%
601.4
4,390.5 1.15%

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Latest data
Provisional data
Own estimate (review Dec. 2015)
China Crude Oil plus condensates production
10000 tons
YoY
(000) tpd (000) bpd
YoY
2013Q1
5,128.5 0.64%
569.8
4,159.3 3.78%
2013Q2
5,232.0 2.95%
575.0
4,197.3 4.55%
2013Q3
5,135.1 -1.22%
558.2
4,075.0 -0.46%
2013Q4
5,324.7 0.03%
578.7
4,225.0 0.02%
2014Q1
5,133.6 0.10%
570.6
4,165.0 0.14%
2014Q2
5,223.7 -0.16%
574.0
4,190.7 -0.16%
2014Q3
5,198.9 1.24%
565.2
4,125.7 1.24%
2014Q4
5,388.9 1.21%
585.8
4,276.3 1.21%
2015Q1
5,221.5 1.71%
580.1
4,234.7 1.67%
2015Q2
5,378.7 2.97%
591.1
4,315.2 2.97%
2015Q3
5,401.0 3.89%
587.1
4,285.9 3.88%
2015Q4
5,380.0 -0.17%
584.8
4,269.2 -0.17%
Latest data
Provisional data
Own estimate
China Crude Oil plus condensates production
10000 tons
YoY
(000) tpd (000) bpd
YoY
Jan-14
1,758.4 -0.41%
567.2
4,141.0 -0.65%
Feb-14
1,611.4 1.04%
575.5
4,201.0 1.33%
Mar-14
1,763.8 -0.24%
569.0
4,153.0 -0.26%
Apr-14
1,697.9 -1.01%
566.0
4,132.0 -1.01%
May-14
1,775.6 0.17%
572.8
4,181.0 0.17%
Jun-14
1,750.2 0.34%
583.4
4,259.0 0.35%
Jul-14
1,734.2 1.00%
559.4
4,084.0 1.01%
Aug-14
1,748.8 1.07%
564.1
4,118.0 1.06%
Sep-14
1,715.9 1.66%
572.0
4,175.0 1.66%
Oct-14
1,793.6 -0.74%
578.6
4,224.0 -0.73%
Nov-14
1,763.0 2.03%
587.7
4,290.0 2.02%
Dec-14
1,832.3 2.37%
591.1
4,315.0 2.37%
Jan-15
1,797.1 2.20%
579.7
4,232.0 2.20%
Feb-15
1,617.9 0.40%
577.8
4,218.0 0.40%
Mar-15
1,806.5 2.42%
582.7
4,254.0 2.43%
Apr-15
1,749.9 3.06%
583.3
4,258.1 3.05%
May-15
1,817.2 2.34%
586.2
4,279.2 2.35%
Jun-15
1,811.6 3.51%
603.9
4,408.2 3.50%
Jul-15
1,810.3 4.39%
584.0
4,263.0 4.38%
Aug-15
1,816.7 3.88%
586.0
4,278.0 3.89%
Sep-15
1,774.0 3.39%
591.3
4,316.7 3.39%
Oct-15
1,808.7 0.84%
583.5
4,259.2 0.83%
Nov-15
1,766.0 0.17%
588.7
4,297.3 0.17%
Dec-15
1,805.3 -1.47%
582.4
4,251.2 -1.48%
Jan-16
1,800.0 0.16%
580.6
4,238.8 0.16%
Feb-16
1,681.1 3.91%
579.7
4,231.7 0.33%
Mar-16
1,796.8 -0.54%
579.6
4,231.1 -0.54%
Apr-16
1,740.9 -0.51%
580.3
4,236.1 -0.52%
May-16
1,803.1 -0.78%
581.6
4,245.9 -0.78%
Jun-16
1,751.9 -3.30%
584.0
4,263.0 -3.29%
Jul-16
1,789.8 -1.13%
577.4
4,214.8 -1.13%
Aug-16
1,800.9 -0.87%
580.9
4,240.9 -0.87%
Sep-16
1,740.7 -1.88%
580.2
4,235.7 -1.88%
Oct-16
1,797.9 -0.60%
580.0
4,233.7 -0.60%
Nov-16
1,744.1 -1.24%
581.4
4,244.0 -1.24%
Dec-16
1,782.0 -1.29%
574.8
4,196.4 -1.29%
Latest data
Own estimate