SIAMVITI

Climate change and Portuguese viticulture: Scenarios,

S Impacts and Adaptation Measures
PTDC/AAC-AMB/105024/2008
AMB/105024/2008
Pedro Aguiar Ricardo Braga 1
Pinto ;
Carlos 1,2; Lopes1

1 – CBAA/Instituto Superior de Agronomia/Universidade Técnica de Lisboa

2 -Instituto
Instituto Politécnico de Portalegre
papinto@isa.utl.pt

GOALS
(1)Calibrate and validate a process based crop model for grapevine;
(2)Describe and quantify the impacts of future climate (2070-2100)
( in Portuguese viticulture;
(3)Investigate possible adaptation measures at the crop management level.

TASK 2
Objective: produce a validated Grapevine and Diseases model to be used as a tool in assessing climate change
impacts on Portuguese Viticulture (Task 5) as well as in evaluating climate change adaptation measures.
Task2 is the base for the entire project: Developing a suitable grapevine growth and yield, and disease model will be an
interactive process of several stages: verification, calibration, validation and adaptation. The team has
considerable experience in model development and therefore will not be reinventing the wheel. The available models will
first be verified for our environmental conditions to make sure that the most important plant variables respond the way they
are suppose to (qualitative analysis). After verification, the models will be calibrated for key parameters. This phase may be
proceeded by a sensitivity analysis to determined key model parameters. In the step of validation the outcome of these
models will be contrasted with historical field data (task1) in a detailed quantified analysis.
The resultant grapevine model may a combination of existing models or a totally new model depending on the goodness of fit TASK 3
TASK 1 obtained from current models during the interactive model development phase. If a specific process or parameter gap is Objective: establish three field experimental sites
Objective: compile historical field data collected over detected in task2, one can incorporate a data collection effort in task 3 to accommodate the specific need. (Estremadura, Dão e Vinhos Verdes Regions) to record a
several years to make it usable for task2. very detailed and intensive soil, plant, management and
Several experimental stations in Portugal specialized in weather datasets to assist grapevine model
viticulture have typically conducted many field Task 2 implementation (task2).
experiments where soil, crop and management These datasets will complement the historical datasets
variables have been recorded. A common limitation in Task 1 Grapevine Crop and Task 3 from task1 and will be much more detailed and
using these data is the fact that they are not properly
Historical Disease Models Selection: Intensive intensive and, above all, oriented towards recording
organized and validated. Therefore, there is the need variables directly implicated in the modeling process or
for a task that compiles the available historical data, Field Data Model Verification,
Verification Field Crop adopted model. It also adds the possibility of targeting
validates the data and stores it in structural databases
Compilation Calibration, Validation and Monitoring specific modeling gaps identified in task2. Therefore
to make it usable for other purposes. The two sites that task3 will be instrumental in the successful completion
will deserve most attention at this stage will be Dois Adaptation of task2.
Portos National Viticultural Research Station
(Estremadura wine region) and the Vinhos Verdes wine
region. The Database will incorporate data from four
areas crucial to every crop modeling effort: soil, plant,
TASK 4
management and weather Task 4 Objective: define and implement the different climate change scenarios for 2070-2100 from the
General Circulation Model down to daily weather data usable by the grapevine growth and
Implementation of development model.
Climate Change The task starts from adopting a General Circulation Model (GCM) and downscaling the data through
TASK 1 Regional Models. From the Regional Models a grid will be developed at a higher spatial resolution
Objective: run the grapevine model developed in task Scenarios compatible with the national viticultural regions. Future climate change scenarios will be assembled
2 to assess climate change impact on grapevine based on the existing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. Finally, daily weather data will be
development, growth, yield and diseases according to assembled in order to run the grapevine model for both baseline and future climate scenarios to
several scenarios developed in task4. assess climate change impact (Task 5) and evaluate adaptation measure (Task6).
The model will be run for a baseline climate and for a
future climate (2070-2100) and impact assessed by
comparing model outputs for key variables. These key
TASK 1
variables include: phonological phases duration, yield Objective: use the grapevine model developed in Task 2 to evaluate
Task 6 possible crop management adaptation measures to the impacts assessed
and components, grape quality, vegetative vigor, plant Task 5
water use and stress, disease incidence. The model will Climate Change in task5.
be run for several viticultural regions such as Vinhos Climate Change Impact The model will be run for a future climate (2070-2100) to test several
Adaptation Measures crop management options and evaluate them according to the their
Verdes, Dão, Estremadura and Alentejo using respectful Assessement
soils, management and varieties. The Touriga Nacional Evaluation capacity to reduce climate change impacts. The model outputs on focus
variety will be used as a control variety due to its more will depend upon the impacts assessed in task5, but can be foreseen to
general spatial scope. include: phonological phases duration, yield and components, grape
quality, vegetative vigor, plant water use and stress, disease incidence.
As for task 5, the adaptation measures will be tested for several
viticultural regions such as Vinhos Verdes, Dão, Extremadura and
Alentejo using respectful soils and varieties. Crop management options
RESEARCH UNITS will also depend on assessed impacts but will most likely include
•Centro de Botânica Aplicada à Agricultura (CBAA/ISA/UTL) irrigation, pruning, training systems and disease management. Task 6 will
also have as outcome some prospects into other adaptation measures
•Centro de Investigação em Ciências Geo-Espaciais (CICG/FC/UP) that are not in the domain of crop management and these include
breeding program directions, new variety selection, geographic terroir
•Laboratório de Sistemas, Instrumentação e Modelação em Ciências e Tecnologias da Terra e do migration and new terroir prospection.
Espaço (SIM/FC/UL)
•Agri-Ciência, Consultores de Engenharia, Lda. (Agri-Ciência)

Presented at: Funding: