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Sintex Industries
BSE SENSEX
26, 559
Bloomberg
S&P CNX
8,057
SINT IN
424.7
44.2/0.7
136 / 46
-8/10/102
647/6693
66.0
Net sales
70.3
80.9
99.8
EBITDA
12.1
14.2
18.3
Adj. PAT
5.5
13.0
6.0
13.4
8.5
19.1
5.9
3.7
41.7
RoE (%)
13.4
11.9
14.7
RoCE (%)
12.0
11.2
13.8
6.6
7.0
7.0
P/E (x)
8.0
7.7
5.5
P/BV (x)
0.9
0.9
0.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
6.7
6.2
4.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
Payout (%)
Valuations
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
7-11%
CMP: INR104
Buy
All round beat in estimates; B2G benefits yet to percolate; FCCB concerns easing off
All round beat: Sintex Industries (SINT) 4QFY15 revenue grew 9.7% YoY to
INR21.8b (v/s estimate of INR20.8b). 2pp QoQ expansion in operating margins
translates into EBITDA of INR4b, +14.3% YoY (v/s estimate of INR3.6b). FY15 OPM
stood at 17.2% (+0.8pp YoY). PAT rose to INR2b (26% YoY) on the back of rise in
other income and lower depreciation and interest expense.
Segmental momentum intactB2G benefits yet percolate: Growth momentum
remained healthy in the performing segments viz. prefab (+19% YoY), textile (+40%
YoY) and custom moldings (+16% YoY). However, the benefits of governments
initiativesClean India campaign, toilet projects and mass housing, which are key
to further growth acceleration in prefab and revival in monolithic segment (which
posted lowest revenue since FY09)are yet to percolate.
Capability building continuously boosting prospects: SINT is continuously
enhancing preparedness for opportunities that are likely to come through
governments initiatives in rural area. It is the only company to get approvals for
prefabricated family-size biogas plants in Indiaa vertical that offers untapped
growth lever going forward. In 4QFY15, it bagged large orders for rural RO water
shelter enclosures and healthcare centers, which are new ventures with promising
growth prospect, from a couple of states.
Operations on track with best yet to come; correction offers entry opportunity:
SINTs business cycle is favorably poised with better macro outlook and the muchawaited boost in government spending in related verticals. We are raising FY16/17
EPS by 11%/7% to factor in higher growth in select segments. Our assumption has
upside risk from (a) new sources of revenue through Clean India campaign, and (b)
positive surprise from revival in monolithic business from a low base. FCCB dilution
remains an impediment in 1HFY16, albeit a significant conversion (~82%) is already
behind. After recent corrections, the stock trades at 5.5x FY17E EPS and 4.6x FY17E
EV/EBITDA. We value SINT at 6x FY17E EV/EBITDA, which translates into a fair
value of INR155/share (adjusted for FCCB dilution). Maintain Buy.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Sintex Industries
Sintex Industries (SINT)s 4QFY15 revenue grew 9.7% YoY to INR21.76b (v/s est
of INR20.80b). Higher revenue was attributable to better performances in
traditional textile segment, and higher EPC revenue booked in 4Q.
2pp QoQ expansion in operating margins translates into EBITDA at INR4b,
+14.3% YoY (v/s est of INR3.6b). FY15 OPM stood at 17.2% (+0.8pp YoY).
Rise in other income to INR477m (INR95m in 4QFY14) coupled with lower
depreciation (INR711m v/s INR817m YoY) and interest expense (INR861m v/s
INR 1,058m YoY) lead to 26.6% YoY PAT growth to INR2.03b
1QFY14
1,108
10,131
4,672
2,048
1,869
755
5,459
1,872
3,587
11,281
2QFY14
1,306
12,324
6,444
3,031
2,663
750
5,880
2,351
3,529
13,649
3QFY14
1,516
12,234
5,815
3,215
1,950
650
6,419
2,690
3,729
13,750
4QFY14
1,530
18,340
10,440
3,440
6,060
940
7,900
3,680
4,220
19,870
1QFY15
1,535
11,880
5,670
2,600
2,370
700
6,210
2,530
3,680
13,415
2QFY15
1,710
15,030
8,100
3,960
3,310
830
6,930
2,910
4,020
16,740
3QFY15
1,860
16,400
7,590
4,130
2,610
850
8,810
3,040
5,770
18,260
4QFY15
2,135
19,530
10,400
4,110
5,210
1,080
9,130
4,220
4,910
21,665
FY14
5,460
53,029
27,371
11,734
12,542
3,095
25,658
10,593
15,065
58,645
FY15
7,240
62,840
31,760
14,800
13,500
3,460
31,080
12,700
18,380
70,080
Prefab segment continued its strong momentum with 19% YoY growth (28% in
3Q), along with margin expansion to 28% (v/s 26% QoQ).
Much awaited benefits of governments clean India mission is yet to percolate.
SINT, however, is continuously enhancing its preparedness through capability
building in various product segments. It stands as the only company to get
approvals for prefabricated family size biogas plants in India, which offers
untapped growth lever going forward.
In 4QFY15, it bagged large orders for Rural RO water shelter enclosures and
Healthcare centers from couple of states, which are new ventures with
promising growth prospect.
7 May 2015
Textile segment recorded strong sales growth of 40% YoY (v/s 33% in FY15)
driven by rise in utilization in added capacity; EBITDA margins were down 2.2pp
QoQ to 24%.
Tank segment improved on margins by 1.7pp QoQ to 13.5% (v/s 14% in 4QFY14)
amidst 15% YoY revenue growth to INR1.1b.
Infrastructure segment continues to remain subdued despite higher revenue
booking from EPC segment. Monolithic segment posted ~14% YoY de-growth in
4QFY15 (-33% YoY in FY15). Management focus remains selective on projects
with lesser risk of poor working capital.
Sintex Industries
20
17
20
23
23
Margin (%)
27 28
24
26
26
28
20
20
20
19
23
Margin (%)
23
30
25
28
26
20
18
21
14
15
19
19
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
Margin (%)
26
18
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1
2QFY13
1.7 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 2.6 4.0 4.1 4.1
1QFY13
24
19
22
10
10
10
Margin (%)
9
11
11
9
Revenue (INR b)
19
16
19
14
14
16
15
Revenue (INR b)
11
14
10
12
10
11
10
11
4QFY15
Margin (%)
11
14
10
12
12
13
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1
2QFY13
2.2 2.4 3.3 2.4 1.9 2.7 2.0 6.1 2.4 3.3 2.6 5.2
1QFY13
12
1QFY13
3QFY15
Margin (%)
19
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
2.9 2.9 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.7 4.2 3.7 4.0 5.8 4.9
2QFY13
2.2 2.4 2.6 3.3 1.9 2.4 2.7 3.7 2.5 2.9 3.0 4.2
1QFY13
20
Sintex Industries
Other updates
7 May 2015
Sintex Industries
Exhibit 8: Trend in P/E
P/E (x)
5 Yrs Avg(x)
35
15 Yrs Avg(x)
10 Yrs Avg(x)
28
9.5
21
7.5
10.0
14
Peak(x)
Avg(x)
6.6
5.1
3.5
7.2
Min(x)
10.6
5.5
7.7
7.8
EV/EBDITA(x)
11.5
2.4
May-15
Mar-14
Jan-13
Nov-11
Sep-10
Jul-09
Apr-08
Feb-07
Dec-05
Oct-04
Aug-03
Jun-02
Jan-00
May-15
Mar-14
Jan-13
Nov-11
Sep-10
Jul-09
Jun-08
Apr-07
Feb-06
Dec-04
Oct-03
Aug-02
Jun-01
Apr-00
Apr-01
1.5
15
20
15
23
FY17E
14
FY16E
36
FY15
FY14
35
FY13
18%
17%
16%
18%
17% 17%
16%
18%
16%
FY17E
FY16E
FY15
FY14
FY13
FY12
FY11
FY10
FY09
FY08
FY07
FY12
FY11
FY10
FY09
-1
7 May 2015
-33
-6
20
16
12
16
22
22
12
FY17E
21
FY16E
14
12
12
12
FY15
12
15
15
FY14
-11
-19
12
20
10
FY13
20
26
20
20
FY12
33
16
8
Textiles
Prefab
Monolithic
Tanks
Domestic
Composites
Foreign
Composites
Sintex Industries
4.1
0.0
7 May 2015
14
14
11
13
14
11
12
15
FY17E
21
12
FY16E
16
11
FY14
10
10
FY13
11
FY15E
15
FY12
19
FY09
19
FY08
20
-12.4
FY17E
FY14
FY13
FY12
FY11
FY10
FY09
FY08
FY07
-10.9
FY07
-6.9
-9.8
13
-4.9
FY16E
-5.9
FY15E
-4.7 -5.2
14
FY11
-1.2
FY10
15
Sintex Industries
Exhibit 15: Key operating matrix and assumptions
Sales Growth (%)
Textiles
Plastics
Building Materials
Prefab
Monolithic
Tanks
Composites
Domestic Composites
Foreign Composites
Sales Growth (%)
Total EBITDA Margin (%)
Textiles
Plastics
Building Materials
Prefab
Monolithic
Tanks
Composites
Domestic
Foreign
Sales Mix
Textiles
Plastics
Building Materials
Prefab
Monolithic
Tanks
Composites
Domestic
Foreign
EBITDA Mix
Textiles
Plastics
Building Materials
Prefab
Monolithic
Tanks
Composites
Domestic
Foreign
FY07
FY08
95
10
126
69
39
0
18
267
84
0
FY09
35
7
40
23
1
115
-9
59
5
113
FY10
7
-7
9
15
-16
59
15
5
15
-1
FY11
36
26
38
51
14
86
22
25
25
25
FY12
-1
8
-2
-7
12
-19
12
4
21
-6
FY13
14
0
16
11
35
-8
22
22
29
16
FY14
15
16
15
22
20
-11
14
9
0
16
FY15
20
33
19
16
26
-33
12
21
20
22
FY16E
15
20
9
-1
20
15
12
20
16
22
FY17E
23
10
9
6
20
15
12
12
12
12
19
28.8
16.0
15.2
16.7
0.0
9.8
17.9
17.9
0.0
18
27.6
16.1
17.2
18.6
19.0
9.0
14.8
22.2
7.3
17
27.8
15.5
18.1
20.1
18.0
9.0
12.5
14.8
11.4
16
20.0
15.9
17.1
16.6
19.0
10.1
14.8
20.2
11.7
18
24.0
17.5
19.0
20.5
19.5
11.0
15.0
21.0
11.6
16
23.0
15.4
15.7
20.0
15.0
10.0
15.0
19.2
11.9
16
21.0
15.2
17.2
19.0
17.5
10.0
13.2
19.0
8.5
17
24.2
16.3
19.1
25.4
17.8
11.7
13.3
19.5
9.0
17
25.0
16.5
18.9
26.0
19.3
12.0
14.1
20.0
10.0
18
24.5
16.7
19.9
24.0
19.0
12.0
14.0
19.9
10.1
18
24.0
17.1
21.2
24.0
19.0
11.0
13.9
19.7
10.0
27
73
52
41
0
11
21
21
0
15
85
45
29
9
7
40
20
20
12
88
41
22
15
5
47
15
31
11
89
44
17
22
5
46
17
29
10
90
49
14
30
4
42
15
27
11
89
46
16
24
5
44
19
25
9
91
44
19
20
5
46
21
26
9
91
47
20
15
5
44
18
26
10
90
45
21
9
5
44
18
26
11
85
39
22
9
5
46
18
28
10
75
34
21
8
4
42
17
25
40
60
41
35
0
6
19
19
0
24
76
44
30
10
3
33
25
8
20
80
44
26
16
2
34
13
21
13
87
46
17
25
3
41
20
21
13
87
51
16
32
3
34
18
17
15
85
44
20
23
3
40
22
18
12
88
49
23
22
3
39
25
14
13
87
52
30
16
4
34
21
14
15
85
49
32
9
3
36
21
15
15
81
44
30
9
3
37
21
16
13
70
39
28
8
3
32
18
14
7 May 2015
Sintex Industries
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
33,192
5.8
5,380
16.2
3.1
1,445
3,936
731
392
486
4,083
772
18.9
3,311
10.1
1.2
3,290
2,896
-6.5
44,837
35.1
8,155
18.2
51.6
1,491
6,664
1,089
455
62
6,092
1,508
24.8
4,584
10.2
38.4
4,600
4,553
57.2
44,535
-0.7
7,177
16.1
-12.0
1,678
5,499
1,358
505
-466
4,179
1,160
25.0
3,019
6.8
-34.1
2,970
3,535
-22.4
51,079
14.7
7,695
15.1
7.2
2,054
5,641
1,726
860
-903
3,871
669
14.0
3,202
6.3
6.0
3,166
4,141
17.2
58,645
14.8
9,642
16.4
25.3
2,548
7,094
2,894
774
-161
4,814
1,180
23.7
3,634
6.2
13.5
3,621
3,808
-8.1
70,348
20.0
12,106
17.2
25.6
2,605
9,500
2,835
682
-218
7,130
1,863
25.4
5,267
7.5
44.9
5,245
5,506
44.6
80,941
15.1
14,167
17.5
17.0
3,765
10,402
3,231
500
-100
7,571
1,688
22.0
5,884
7.3
11.7
5,859
6,009
9.1
99,815
23.3
18,320
18.4
29.3
4,184
14,137
3,321
500
0
11,316
2,829
25.0
8,487
8.5
44.2
8,462
8,512
41.7
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
271
0
19,198
19,469
190
26,303
1,693
47,655
25,581
7,746
17,834
2,665
1,716
2,470
271
0
23,745
24,016
0
27,736
2,057
53,808
33,276
9,156
24,120
2,190
714
3,775
271
0
26,212
26,483
0
30,913
2,381
59,778
37,266
10,863
26,403
2,179
2,531
1,423
311
283
30,656
31,250
0
37,139
2,878
71,267
42,326
13,332
28,995
2,157
3,597
1,303
311
283
34,844
35,438
0
40,630
3,289
79,358
51,783
15,879
35,903
1,865
1,500
3,058
425
0
46,553
46,978
0
46,554
4,694
98,226
66,170
18,484
47,686
1,550
5,000
5,281
447
0
53,545
53,992
0
47,361
4,694
106,047
77,670
22,249
55,421
1,550
4,000
4,508
447
0
61,692
62,139
0
48,361
4,694
115,194
86,670
26,433
60,237
1,550
3,000
4,008
Curr. assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank
Loans, Adv. & Others
Current liab. & prov.
Creditors
Provisions
30,983
3,411
10,121
9,295
8,157
8,015
4,029
3,507
33,655
3,770
14,278
9,861
5,746
10,647
6,522
3,626
37,350
3,955
16,983
7,206
9,206
10,108
6,514
3,594
45,003
4,531
18,596
8,902
12,974
9,787
8,504
1,284
48,559
4,511
22,230
2,720
19,099
11,528
10,005
1,523
53,535
5,170
24,608
4,250
19,507
14,827
13,364
1,462
58,713
6,049
27,720
1,660
23,284
18,146
16,465
1,681
69,542
6,654
30,081
6,827
25,979
23,144
21,211
1,934
22,969
47,655
23,009
53,809
27,242
59,778
35,216
71,268
37,031
79,358
38,709
98,226
40,567
106,047
46,398
115,194
Operating income
Change (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
Change (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Other income
Extraordinary items
PBT
Tax
Tax / PBT (%)
PAT before MI
PAT margin (%)
Change (%)
Consolidated PAT
Adj. Con. PAT
Change (%)
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
7 May 2015
(INR Million)
Sintex Industries
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015
2016E
2017E
Basic (INR)
EPS
Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book value
Divd. Per Share
Payout incl. Div. Tax (%)
10.7
-6.5
17.4
71.8
0.6
5.8
16.8
57.2
22.5
88.6
0.7
4.5
13.0
-22.4
17.5
97.7
0.7
6.7
13.3
2.1
17.0
100.4
0.7
7.8
12.2
-8.1
19.9
113.9
0.7
7.0
13.0
5.9
18.6
110.6
0.7
6.6
13.4
3.7
21.7
120.8
0.7
7.0
19.1
41.7
28.4
139.1
0.7
7.0
8.8
6.5
1.2
1.2
7.4
0.6
8.6
6.7
1.1
1.2
8.1
0.6
9.3
5.7
1.0
1.2
7.3
0.6
8.0
5.6
0.9
1.2
6.7
0.7
7.7
4.8
0.9
1.1
6.2
0.7
5.5
3.7
0.7
0.8
4.6
0.7
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
Price/Book value
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend yield (%)
Profitability ratios (%)
Average RoE
Average RoCE
15.9
10.0
20.9
14.6
14.0
11.0
14.3
10.3
11.4
10.9
13.4
12.0
11.9
11.2
14.7
13.8
Turnover ratios
Debtors (days sales)
Inventory (days sales)
111
38
116
31
139
32
133
32
138
28
128
27
125
27
110
24
Leverage ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015
2016E
2017E
3,576
1,446
731
772
-7,480
-2,013
6,046
1,491
1,089
1,508
526
7,706
4,596
1,678
1,358
1,160
-6,888
-882
4,738
2,054
1,726
669
-6,278
668
4,962
2,548
2,894
1,180
-7,997
1,065
7,326
2,605
2,835
1,863
-147
10,538
7,646
3,765
3,231
1,688
-4,448
8,405
11,291
4,184
3,321
2,829
-664
15,301
(Inc)/Dec in FA
(Pur)/Sale of invts.
CF from invt. activity
FCF
Inc/(Dec) in Net Worth
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Less : Interest paid
Divd & Divd Tax
-1,663
-651
-2,315
-4,327
-680
3,339
731
191
-6,300
-1,305
-7,605
101
153
1,432
1,089
206
-5,766
2,352
-3,414
-4,296
-297
3,178
1,358
205
-5,690
120
-5,570
-4,902
1,855
6,226
1,726
254
-7,067
-1,755
-8,822
-7,757
821
3,492
2,894
254
-17,573
-2,223
-19,796
-9,258
6,641
5,924
2,835
347
-10,500
772
-9,728
-1,323
1,520
807
3,231
365
-8,000
500
-7,500
7,801
50
1,000
3,321
365
1,938
464
1,641
6,597
1,576
10,789
-1,267
-2,634
-2,390
11,685
9,295
566
9,295
9,861
-2,655
9,861
7,206
1,695
7,206
8,901
-6,181
8,902
2,721
1,531
2,720
4,250
-2,590
4,250
1,660
5,167
1,660
6,827
7 May 2015
(INR Million)
Sintex Industries
Mar-15
Dec-14
Mar-14
Promoter
34.0
38.7
41.0
DII
2.2
5.1
7.0
FII
28.2
19.5
7.8
Others
35.6
36.8
44.1
Holder Name
% Holding
Government of Singapore
Goldman Sachs (Singapore) PTE
LIC of India Market Plus -1 Growth Fund
Monetary Authority of Singapore
LIC of India
4.7
2.5
1.6
1.4
1.4
Name
Designation
Name
Name
Dinesh B Patel
Chairman
Dinesh B Patel
Indira J Parikh*
Arun P Patel
Vice Chairman
Arun P Patel
Lavkumar Kantilal*
Amit D Patel
Managing Director
Amit D Patel
Ramnikbhai Ambani*
Rahul A Patel
Managing Director
Rahul A Patel
S B Dangayach
Managing Director
S B Dangayach
Rajesh B Parikh*
*Independent
Consensus
forecast
Variation (%)
FY16
13.4
14.6
-8.2
FY17
19.1
18.1
5.8
Name
Type
EPS (INR)
Statutory
Cost Auditor
Cost Auditor
7 May 2015
10
Sintex Industries
NOTES
7 May 2015
11
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