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were the words, with which George Bush Junior addressed the nation announcing the beginning
of the military campaign in Afghanistan. The American invasion in Afghanistan was a reaction to
the terrorist attack of September 11. The initial goal was to punish the Taliban for its support of
international terrorism. That goal was reached in a short period of time. Already on November
13, 2001 the Taliban surrendered Kabul, while on December 7 fell Kandahar the last city they
controlled. However, they failed to completely defeat the Taliban. With time the Taliban
managed to restore its forces.
US is facing a military and political disaster in Afghanistan. This is the biggest US vulnerability.
Military:
The entire US military strategy to suppress the insurgency and resistance in Afghanistan through
excessive brutal force and troops surge has failed completely. US officials in Washington have
been issuing the statement of improving situation in Afghanistan since last 3 years but situation
on ground is entirely opposite.
what Soviet forces confronted in the 1980s. Even some American military analysts believe that
the situation has gone from bad to abysmal.
An acute increase in death toll of the US/NATO forces was witnessed after the
announcement of Af-Pak which proves beyond doubt that Af-Pak has destroyed the initial
successes against Afghan resistance.
There was no incident of releasing of any Taliban fighter from US/NATO jails before Af-
Pak but now it has become a normal trend. During the last two years 20 prisoners, declared bad
guys by the US officials, have been released secretly from military prison to cut deals with
Taliban.
Public:
The US failure in Afghanistan is not limited to the military strategy but the war of
winning hearts and minds of Afghan locals have been lost too and the public perception of the
US/NATO as the saviors has eroded completely even among non-Pushtun factions of Afghan
society.
If the military brutalities of the US/NATO forces against the common Afghans were not
enough to destroy the credibility and acceptability of the ERFs by the Afghans, the recent
incidents like urinating on Taliban fighters dead bodies, burning of copies of Quran,
killing of Afghan civilians by American soldiers has done this for sure. No society would ever
approve such atrocities particularly the Afghan society where religion and strong tribal
values have profound impact on collective thought process and social bearings.
"Understanding the Threat to America", has infuriated not only Muslim around the world
but the US troops also think this trend is completely Un-American.
Political:
On political axis, the entire US scheme to bring a halt in ever expanding Taliban influence and
military assaults through political maneuvering is in tatters as situation has gone out of control
and new dynamics are indicative that country is going to be divided into multiple ethnic zones as
the American forces did in Iraq before leaving it.
US desire to bring Taliban on the negotiation table has resented the National Front of
Afghanistan (NFA) that was created by Ahmad Zia Massoud, Abdul Rashid Dostum and
Haji Mohammad Mohaqiq. It is basically the military wing of the United Front (Northern
Alliance) to oppose a return of the Taliban. These developments took place when Americans
tried to enter in negotiation with the Taliban bypassing the Afghan government last year.
Uzbik and Tajik elements in Afghan government feel threatened by the US desire to bring
Taliban in the government. The recent assassinations of pro-peace negotiators, Professor Rabbani
and Maulvi Arsala Rehmani, are an indication that powerful players in the Kabul regime do not
want any peace deals with Taliban.
Taliban are firm on their stance of keep resisting the occupied forces until their complete
withdrawal.
Karzai is the only hope for the US but he is incompetent and corrupt.
Some of the Congressmen are also afraid of the Taliban's return and are opposing any
deal between the US and the Taliban. U.S. Congressman Louie Gohmert wrote, "These leaders
who fought with embedded Special Forces to initially defeat the Taliban represent over 60percent of the Afghan people, yet are being entirely disregarded by the Obama and Karzai
Administrations in negotiations."
At home, US and NATO governments and their militaries are also in a desperate situation.
This is also critical to understand as this economic collapse directly affects the military
capability and war making capacity of the US and NATO against Taliban and Pakistan and gives
incredible leverage to Pakistan to hard bargain with these ERF.
1.
US economy was one trillion surpluses at the beginning of WoT and now it is in more
2.
US military budget is under pressure and more cuts in spending have been introduced.
The 2011 Budget Control Act requires the Department of Defense to reduce its expenditures by
about $487 billion over the next decade, $259 billion of which must be cut over the next five
years.
3.
Euro crisis has blown out of control due to multiple economic collapses. There is total
and complete meltdown in NATO countries. The economic managers across the Europe (NATO
countries) are searching for the silver bullet the magic policy pill to salvage them from an
imminent economic disaster. Even a country like Germany failed to protect itself from the impact
of the Euro-zone crisis.
4.
Britain has announced a military budget cut resulting 5000 sailors of British Navy losing
their jobs in first phase of downsizing.
In presence of these economic indicators from the US and Europe, it will be nearly impossible
for them to launch a military aggression against a nuclear armed Pakistan. Furthermore, any such
eventuality will destroy the US missions in Afghanistan as well.