Inundation Mapping

Comparison Using
Steady and Unsteady
Hydraulic Models and
GIS
Ccile Aschwanden,
Keren Cepero,
Cepero Seann Reed
NOAA - National Weather Service - Office of Hydrologic
Development

NWS Flood Forecast Mapping

Where we are
NWS Ad
Advanced
d Hydrologic
H d l i Prediction
P di ti Service
S i (AHPS)
provides static inundation forecast maps for 33 locations
(total locations: 3791)
Dynamic hydraulic models were implemented on some
major rivers for pilot projects
Where we are going
Move from static to dynamic flood forecast mapping where
static
t ti mapping
i is
i insufficient
i
ffi i t
Provide probabilistic flood forecast mapping for flood
forecast p
purposes,
p
, NOT historical risk based mapping
pp g

Project Goals
Quantify

the difference of dynamic flood

forecast mapping relative to current static
mapping services
Determine reach lengths where static maps are
valid

Develop

methods to guide and prioritize

dynamic mapping implementations

AHPS (Advanced Hydrologic

P di ti Service)
Prediction
S i ) and
d Flood
Fl d Safety
S f t
How

high
g will
the rivers rise?
When will the
river reach its
peak?
Where will the
fl di occur??
flooding
How long will
the flood last?
How long will
the drought last?
How
H
certain
t i iis
the forecast?

AHPS - http://www.weather.gov/ahps/index.php
AHPS

is the NWSs
ongoing effort to
mode ni e NWS
modernize
hydrologic services

provides
improved river and
flood forecasts and
water information
across America to
protect life and
property and
ensure the Nations
economic
i wellwellllbeing

All Forecast Locations

AHPS

Static Inundation Mapping Sites

AHPS Static Inundation Map Library

Tar River: Tarboro, NC

Current Forecast

Flood Categories

Inundation Levels

Case Study: Tar River Basin

Source: USGS

River

Main Street of
Tarboro, NC 1999
Floyd Flood Event

length: 215 miles (346 km)

Drainage area: 2151 mi
mi (5,571 km
km)
Right image: http://www.danieldesign.com/tarboro.htm

Hydraulic Model
Unsteady

HECHEC-RAS model

Tar River (NC), Tarboro to Washington (~48 miles)

Cross
Cross--section:

from the North Carolina USGS

North

Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program

HEC--RAS format
HEC

combination

of

LIDAR data
USGS field surveys
Calibration

p
period

July 1 1999 - August 31 2005

Lower Tar River

Schematic Representation

Ba
ase model calibratio
on

Tarboro Upstream boundary

Rock Springs Calibration point

Greenville Calibration point
Grimesland Calibration point
Washington Downstream boundary

Model Domain

Study Sites: Tarboro and Greenville

D i Hurricane
During
H i
Floyd
Fl d

Landfall:

September 16, 1999 near Cape Fear, N.C.

Flood
Fl d exceeded
d d the
th 100 year flood
fl d zone (in
(i some
sites even exceeded the 500 year flood zone)

Mapping Process
HEC
HEC--RAS

to generate water surface profiles

GIS data file was exported

HEC
HEC--GeoRAS

to map the extent of the flooding

intersects the
h modeled
d l d water surface
f
with
h digital
d
l
terrain data to determine the inundated area

Initial Experiments
Steady

and unsteady water surface profiles

comparison and the corresponding flood
maps that predict the same stage at the
forecast point of interest:
examine differences
for equal predicted stages
at different times (e
(e.g.
g rising and falling limbs of
hydrographs and different events)

Tarboro, NC

Greenville, NC

Same stage,
different flood
map extent?
t t?

HEC--RAS 4.0.1 Beta

HEC
1D

hydraulic calculations

channel networks
open natural & constructed channels
U.S.

Army Corps Of Engineers

since 1991
1-D steady
steady--state a
and
d unsteadyunsteady
u
steady-state flow
o
Sediment Transport/Movable Boundary
Qualityy Analysis
y (Temperature)
(
p
)
Water Q

HEC--GeoRAS / ArcGIS 9.2

HEC
HEC
HEC--GeoRAS

is a set of procedures
procedures, tools
tools,
and utilities for processing geospatial data in
ArcGIS using a graphical user interface (GUI)
The interface allows the preparation of
geometric
t i data
d t ffor iimportt iinto
t HEC
HEC--RAS and
d
processes simulation results exported from
HEC--RAS (http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec
HEC
(http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec--ras/index.html)
Developed by the US Army Corps of
Engineers

Pre--processing: HECPre
HEC-RAS
A calibrated HECHEC-RAS model was geo
geo--referenced and used to generate steady
and unsteady state scenarios

Verification Datasets
Aerial Imagery:
Flood Extent after
Hurricane Floyd

High Water Marks

Digital Elevation Data
Developed from LIDAR
Greenville, NC

River Gage
Tar River in Greenville, NC

Where Is Dynamic Mapping

R
Required?
i d?
River

characteristics suggest dynamic mapping:

Large flood plains and/or mild slopes

significant flood attenuation
looped rating curves

River

conditions that require dynamic mapping:

Variable backwater
caused

by variable downstream states (river or reservoir)

TimeTime-varying tide and storm tide boundary conditions

Time
Time--varying
y g reservoir releases
Dam or levee break situations

For

flood forecast maps far from forecast points

(need to quantify far)

Peak of Hydrograph
y g p
Stage (ft)

Steady and
unsteady
t d water
t
surface profiles at
the peak stage
(25 9 ft) are very
(25.9
similar

Results in a 0.15%
difference in
inundated area

Elevation ((ft)

Time

Main channel distance (ft)

Tarboro, NC

Same stage, different map extent?

Greenville, NC

30

Simulated Rating for Greenville

25

Sttage (ft)

20
15
10
5
0
0

Time

Hydrograph

-5

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

Flow (cfc)

Looped Rating Curve

60000

70

Unsteady State:
Rising
Ri i versus Falling
F lli Limb
Li b
TAR2ALL

Plan: grnvl_cal

2/18/2009

Main Stem Reach - 1

WS 20SEP1999 0300
40

G
Greenville
ill

WS 24SEP1999
2100
Falling Limb
Profile

20

Elevation (ft)

Elevatio
on (ft)

Ground

Rising Limb
Falling Limb

Rising Limb Profile

-20

50000

9.47
9
47
mi

Difference in computed flood extent: 1.6%

100000

150000

18.9
18
9
mi

28.4
28
4
mi

Main Channel Distance

(ft)
Main channel
distance
(ft)

2000

37.9
37
9
mi

Greenville: 1:5000
Rising versus Falling Limb

Greenville: 1:5000
Rising versus Falling Limb

Conclusions
Steady

and unsteady state flood forecast maps are

similar
i il during
d i a major
j flood
fl d peakk (Hurricane
(H i
Floyd)
Substantial differences can occur
for forecasts at specific times during the flood
For example, different water surface profiles are seen in
the rising and falling limbs,
limbs even for the same stage at
Greenville

Future Work
We will:
quantify the uncertainty associated with the static mapping
assumptions
at different sites
different flow levels
different distances from the forecast point

use static maps from AHPS web site for comparisons

also consider the magnitude of this uncertainty relative to
other sources of uncertainty such as
different elevation data sets
hydrologic input uncertainty

plan to use high water marks and aerial photography more

extensively to validate different modeling scenarios