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discussion of consumer demand

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CONSUMERS

Marktes are made of buyers and sellers. In many cases, buyers are consumers and sellers

are firms. In this and in the next chapter we lay the behavioral foundations of consumers

and firms, respectively.

Creating Demand: Move the Masses to Buy Your Product, Service, or Idea (Updated for the

21st Century). You will find this and many other such titles at your local bookstore (if it

still exists, which is an interesting demand-related question). If there is no demand there is

no business. Therefore, before deciding what to do in business its important to have some

knowledge of what the demand for your product is. The economists answer to this is think

of consumers as having preferences; and from this to derive their demand function: how

much they want to buy of a certain product as a function of a variety of factors, including

price.

Consumer tastes. The traditional theoretical setup for thinking about demand starts

with the tastes or preferences of an individual consumer. To see how this works, suppose

there are two products, A and B. We might express different combinations of purchases in

a diagram with quantities of product A on the vertical axis and quantities of product B

on the horizontal axis. The top left panel in Figure 2.1, for example, shows four possible

combinations, from E1 to E4 . A consumers preferences are reflected by a ranking over all

possible combinations of A and B. For example, a consumer might prefer the bundle E2

best among the four possibilities; be indifferent between E1 and E4 ; and prefer E3 the least.

We can represent our tastes by how various combinations are regarded. We do this

graphically with indifference curves, shown on the top right panel in Figure 2.1. For example,

we might think of 2 units of product A and 1 of product B (point E1 ) as equal to the

reverse (1 unit of product A and 2 units of product B, point E4 ). A line connecting all such

points about which we are indifferent (i.e., like equally well) is called an indifference curve.

Generally, indifference curves are downward-sloping, since we need more of a product to

compensate us for less of the other. (We call this the no satiation principle, which real

means that more is better.) We also assume they are curved away from the origin, since as

Forthcoming in Introduction to Industrial Organization, 2nd Ed. This draft: November 2, 2012.

c Lus Cabral.

Consumers

Figure 2.1

From consumer preferences to consumer demand

qA

qA

......

......

.......

.......

increasing

2

1

E

E2

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1

..

..

..

..

E

E

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..... ... ..3. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 4

..

..

.

..

..

..

..

...

...

utility

qB

qB

Y

pB

qA

.... E 0 .... E

qB

b0

00

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. E

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

.

Increase in Y

Initial budget constraint

Increase in pB

qA

qA

......

.......

........

....... ........

.

.

.

.

.

.

......

.......

........

....... ...

.

.......

....... .............

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

........ .............

.

.

.

.

.......

........

Y

pA

qB

..

..

..

..

..

..

.

..

..

..

..

..

..

.

00

qB

0

qB

qB

we consider combinations with more and more of one product, we need increasing amounts

of it to keep us equally satisfied.

If we put lots of indifference curves on our graph, we can get a complete description of

our tastes. Since more is better, indifference curves that are up and to the right (farther

from the origin) represent higher levels of satisfaction.

Consumer budgets. The other ingredient in our analysis is what the consumer can

afford: the budget set. With two products, the budget might be expressed by the inequality:

pA qA + pB qB Y,

where pi is the price of product i, qi the quantity purchased of product i (i = A, B), and Y

available income. If we solve for qA we see this is the area below the following downwardsloping line:

Y

pB

qA =

qB

pA

pA

which is line b on the top right panel in Figure 2.1. This is a straight line whose position

and slope depend on income and prices. If you increase income, for example, the budget line

shifts out. This is illustrated by line b0 in the top left panel of Figure 2.1. If you increase pB ,

the line rotates clockwise (around the vertical intercept, Y /pA ). This is illustrated by line b00

in the top left panel of Figure 2.1. And if you increase pA , the line rotates counterclockwise

(around the fixed horizontal intercept, Y /pB ).

Demand. Putting together tastes (represented by indifference curves) and possibilities

Consumers

(represented by the budget line) we can find out what our hypothetical consumer should do.

The consumers best choice corresponds to the point where the highest indifference curve

has a common point with the budget line intersects. This is illustrated in the bottom left

panel in Figure 2.1, where E is the best combination of A and B that the consumer can

afford with a budget represent by the budget line b.

and q . These are the quantities

The optimal point, E, corresponds to quantities qA

B

demanded by the consumer. Implicitly, these demands depend on tastes (which are built

into the indifference curves). They also depend on income (since a change in income shifts

the budget line and therefore leads to a change in demand) and prices (for the same reason).

We can summarize and abstract from the underlying indifference curves and budget sets

by writing down a demand function, qi (pi , z), denoting the quantity demanded, qi , for a

given price of the good, pi , and for given values of other variables, z, which might include

income, the prices of all other goods, and any other relevant factors that affect the demand

of good i. For example, if i is tickets to the Mets-Braves game on September 24, z might

include variables such as the weather forecast and the identity of the starting pitcher. (Can

you think of other ones? Box 2.1 includes a few.)

The demand curve gives the quantity demanded of a given good as a function of its price

and of other factors; it can be derived from consumer preferences.

Instead of qi (pi , z), we can equivalently write an inverse demand function, pi (qi , z),

which denotes what the price must be if the quantity demanded is to be equal to qi .

To summarize, this analysis suggests that the quantity of a product demanded by an

individual consumer depends on:

The individuals tastes, expressed by indifference curves.

The price of the product. Generally, the lower the price the higher the demand.

Depending on the curvature of the indifference curves, a change in price might have

a small or a large impact on the number of units demanded.

The price of other products. Decisions are not made in isolation. If we spend less on

one product, that necessarily leaves more to spend on others.

Income. At higher levels of income, we can buy more of everything (and generally

do).

Frequently, we graph qi as a function of pi only.1 We refer to the curve that shows qi

as a function of pi as the demand curve. Basically, it corresponds to the demand function

under the assumption that all variables other than pi are constant (that is, z is constant).

The bottom left panel of Figure 2.1 illustrates the process of deriving the demand

curve. Keeping Y and pA fixed, we change the value of pB . For example, we increase the

value of pB from p0B to p00B . This implies a clockwise rotation of the budget line around

the qA axis intercept. The consumers new optimal point is point E 0 . In other words, by

0

increasing the value of pB from p0B to p00B , the quantity of qB demand decreases from qB

Consumers

Figure 2.2

Consumer surplus: (a) demand for pizza slices and (b) general case.

p

$

3.0

A

price = 1.0

0.2

..

..

..

..

..

..

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

.

.

# slices

3

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

D

q

00 . Repeating this exercise for all possible values of p , we get the demand curve for

to qB

B

product B.

It is important to distinguish between movements along the demand curve and shifts

in the demand curve itself. If pi changes, than the quantity demanded changes as we move

along the demand curve. If however some other variable such as pj (the price of another

good) changes, than qi changes because of a shift of the demand curve.

A change in price leads to a shift along the demand curve; a change in other factors leads

to a shift in the demand curve itself.

Consumer surplus. Before going to watch a movie, you stop at a fast-food pizza store

and place your order. Pizza comes at a dollar a slice. Imagine what would be the maximum

price you would pay for one pizza slice. Perhaps three dollars, especially if you are very

hungry and there is no alternative restaurant in the neighborhood. Consumers dont usually

think about this; all they need to know is that they are willing to pay at least one dollar

for that pizza slice. But, for the sake of argument, let us suppose that the maximum you

would be willing to pay is three dollars.

How about a second slice of pizza? While one slice is the minimum necessary to survive

through a movie, a second slice is an option. It makes sense to assume you would be willing

to pay less for a second slice than for the first slice; say, one dollar and 50 cents. How about

a third slice? For most consumers, a third slice would be superfluous. If you are going to

watch a movie, you might not have the time to eat it, anyway. If you were to buy a third

slice, you would probably only eat the toppings and little else. You wouldnt be willing to

pay more than, say, 20 cents.

Putting all of this information together, we have your demand curve for pizza. The left

panel in Figure 2.2 illustrates this. On the horizontal axis, we have the number of pizzas

you buy. On the vertical axis, we measure the willingness to pay, that is, the maximum

price (in dollars) at which you would still want to buy.

There are two things we can do with a demand curve. First, knowing what the price

is (one dollar per slice), we can predict the number of slices bought. This is the number

Consumers

of slices such that willingness to pay is greater or equal to price. Or, to use the demand

curve, the quantity demanded is given by the point where the demand curve crosses the

line p = 1: two slices.

A second important use of the demand curve is to measure the consumers surplus.

You would be willing to pay up to three dollars for one slice of pizza. That is, had the price

been $3, you would have bought one slice of pizza anyway. In fact, you only paid $1 for that

first slice. Since the pizza is the same in both cases, you are $3$1 = two dollars better

off than you would be had you bought the slice under the worst possible circumstances (or

not bought at all). Likewise, you paid 50 cents less for the second slice than the maximum

you would have been willing to pay. Your total surplus as a consumer is thus $2.50.

Consumer surplus is the difference between willingness to pay and price.

More generally, the consumer surplus is given by the area under the demand curve and

above the price paid by the consumer. This is illustrated in the right panel in Figure 2.2.

If price is p , then quantity demanded is q and consumer surplus is given by the shaded

area A.

Having established the foundations of the demand curve, we are now interested in characterizing its shape, that is, understanding how it depends on a variety of factors: how

it depends on price of the product in question, but also on the prices of other goods, as

well as on the consumers income. For this purpose, economists use the concept of demand

elasticity.

Price elasticity of demand. We presume (based on lots of evidence) that the demand for

a product increases if we lower its price. This doesnt have to be the case, but it invariably

is. The question is how sensitive demand is to price. If I were to tell you that the world oil

demand decreases by 1.3 million barrels a day when price increases from 50 to 60 dollars

per barrel, would you consider the demand for oil very sensitive or not very sensitive to

price? Its hard to tell, unless you have a very good idea of the size of the oil market. What

if I told you that the demand for sugar in Europe decreases by 1 million tones per day

when average retail price increases from 80 to 90 euros cents per kilo: can you compare the

demand for sugar in Europe to the worldwide demand for oil? Its even more difficult.

The problem is that, by measuring the slope of the demand curve, we are stuck with

units: barrels, dollars, kilos, euros, and so on. The solution is to measure things in relative

terms, that is, in terms of percent changes. Specifically, we measure the sensitivity of

demand by the price elasticity of demand:

=

In words

dq

q

dp

p

dq p

q p

dp q

p q

Consumers

Table 2.1

Price elasticity of demand for selected products

Product

Elasticity

Milk

-0.5

Cigarettes

-0.5

Beer

-0.8

Apples

-1.3

US luxury cars in US

-1.9

-2.8

The price elasticity of demand is the ratio between the percentage change in quantity and

the percentage change in price, for a small change in price.

By small change in price we mean, strictly speaking, an infinitesimally small change

in price, something we represent by d p. In practice, we observe small but not infinitesimal

changes in p, which we denote by p. The estimate of the demand elasticity we obtain

based on such price variations is only approximately equal to the value of , thus we use

the sign in the above equation.

Note that elasticities are generally negative, since demand declines when price increases. The question is how negative. We say that products for which || > 1 are elastic, meaning the quantity demanded is very sensitive to price; the higher || is, the more

sensitive to price. Conversely, if 0 < || < 1 (elasticity is small), we say that demand is

inelastic, meaning that demand is relatively insensitive to price; the closer is to zero,

the less sensitive demand is to price. Later we will see why the threshold 1 is so important

when classifying demand elasticity.

Table 2.1 presents the values of the demand elasticity for selected products. Would

you expect the demand for milk to be inelastic? Would you expect the demand for foreign

luxury cars in the U.S. to be elastic? Why?

Note that the elasticity is defined at a point: it generally differs from one point to

another along a demand curve. The left panel in Figure 2.3 considers the case of a linear

demand curve. As we go from the extreme when p is equal to zero to the extreme when q

is equal to zero, the value of varies from 0 to . (You can check this by looking at the

definition of elasticity.) At some intermediate point (the mid point, if the demand curve is

linear), we have || = 1.

Although the value of demand elasticity varies from point to point, there is such

thing as a demand curve with constant elasticity, that is, with the same value of demand

elasticity at every point. The right panel in Figure 2.3 depicts several examples. There are

two extreme cases: a vertical demand curve ( = 0), such that for any price the quantity

demanded is always the same; and a horizontal curve ( = ), the extreme case such

that even a very small change in price leads to an infinite increase in quantity demanded.

These extreme examples are not found in any real-world situation, though some market

demands may be close to it. (Can you think of examples?) For the majority of real-world

Consumers

Figure 2.3

Demand elasticity

p

p

=0

|| > 1

|| = 1

=

|| > 1

|| < 1

=

=0

|| < 1

markets, demand elasticity lies somewhere between the two extremes. Table 2.1 provides a

few examples.

At this point, it should be clear that elasticity is not the same thing as slope, although

slope is an input to it (recall that the slope is given by dq/dp). The difference between slope

and elasticity is illustrated by the left and right panels in Figure 2.3. On the left panel, we

have a curve with constant slope but varying elasticity; on the right panel, we have a series

of curves with constant elasticity but varying slopes.

Technical point: logarithms. A useful variant of the elasticity formula uses logarithms.

You might recall that2

dq

q

dp

p

d log q

d log p

=

dq

q

dp

p

d log q

log q

d log p

log p

The approximation is exact if the elasticity is constant along the demand curve. In this

case, the demand function is

log q = a + b log p

and the elasticity is = b. Given two sets of price and demand combinations for a given

product, (p1 , q1 ) and (p2 , q2 ), we can recover the elasticity from

log qq21

log q

d log q

=

=

d log p

log p

log pp21

since log x log y = log xy .

Numerical example. To see how the concepts of demand elasticity can be used in

practice, consider the following example. Suppose you have access to historical sales data

from the Yellow Note jazz label. When price was set at $10, $11 and $13, total units sold

(thousands) were 6.31, 5.63, and 5.07. (As you can see, Yellow Note has not bee a great

Consumers

commercial success.) Suppose that these historical data correspond to different points of

the demand curve (that is, suppose that the demand curve has remained constant over

these periods). This is a big and possibly unrealistic assumption, to which we will

return later; but it will make our lives easier for the time being. Given this big if, how do

we estimate the value of the demand elasticity at the price of 10?

We can approximate the value of the demand elasticity by the percent change formula

applied to prices 10 and 11:

q p

10

5.63 6.31

= 1.08.

=

p q

11 10

6.31

This is an approximation, since were using discrete changes. We could get a better approximation by using a finer price grid. In fact, the numbers in the present example were

generated by the demand curve, log q = log 100 1.2 log p, which has an elasticity of 1.2.

So, while the estimate of 1.08 is greater than one in absolute value as the true value

(that is, we correctly estimate that the demand for Yellow Note CDs is elastic), there is a

considerable estimation error (1.08 as opposed to 1.2).

Suppose I didnt have the value of demand when price was set at 13. How could I use

q/q

the elasticity estimate to predict demand when price is 13? Since

p/p , we conclude

that

p

q

q

p

Specifically, consider a variation in price from 11 to 13. This corresponds to p/p = 2/11 =

18.18%. We therefore estimate that q/q = 1.08 18.18% = 19.64%, which implies a

value of q given by 5.63 (1 19.64%) = 4.53. This overestimates the decrease in q: as we

know, the true value is 5.07.

Alternatively, we can do the above calculations using the logarithms. First, we estimate

the demand elasticity as:

.1140

=

= 1.20

log 11 log 10

.0953

In fact, given that the demand has constant elasticity, the logarithmic formula yields the

exact value of the demand elasticity. Next, we can estimate the new value of q when p = 13

by solving the equation

log 5.63 log q

= 1.20

log 11 log 13

The result is q = 5.07, the true value of q. Once again, we see that if the demand has

constant elasticity the logarithms approach delivers more precise results.

Elasticity and revenue. From a firms perspective, the elasticity of demand is a critical

piece of information, since it determines the change in revenue that results from a given

change in price. Recall that revenue is simply price times quantity demanded. It is easy

to see that by increasing a products price by 15%, each unit sold will yield more money.

But if overall demand for the product drops as a result of the price increase, the positive

effects of higher per unit prices will be offset by a decline in the number of units demanded.

Which effect is larger?

Consumers

Table 2.2

Automobile demand elasticities

Model

323

Cavalier

Accord

Taurus

Century

BMW

Mazda 323

-6.4

0.6

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

Cavalier

0.0

-6.4

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

Accord

0.0

0.1

-4.8

0.1

0.0

0.0

Taurus

0.0

0.1

0.2

-4.2

0.0

0.0

Century

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.1

-6.8

0.0

BMW 735i

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

-3.5

d (p q)

dp dq

dp dq p dp

dp

=

+

=

+

= (1 + )

pq

p

q

p

dp q p

p

That is, the percent change in revenue following a price change is (1 + elasticity)

(% change in price). Since < 0, the direct effect of the price change (the 1) and the

indirect effect of demand (the ) have opposite signs. If demand is elastic ( < 1), the

demand effect is larger and an increase in price reduces revenue. This is a basic point, but

one that some have missed: that to increase revenue in markets with elastic demand, you

need to lower price, not raise it.

Cross-price elasticity. We have seen that demand for a product depends not only on

its own price, but on prices of other goods. When there are lots of other products its easy

to lose sight of this, but its always there. Some examples are obvious. The demand for ski

boots depends on the demand for skis: if skis get more expensive, we might expect people

to buy fewer skis and fewer boots, too. And as we saw above, the demand for commuter

rail tickets may be influenced by the price of gasoline.

We summarize the sensitivity of demand to the price of another product with the cross

price elasticity:

12 =

d q1

q1

d p2

p2

That is, the ratio of the percent change in demand for product 1 to the percent change in

the price for product 2.

The essential distinction here is between substitutes and complements. If the crossprice elasticity is positive, we say that the products are substitutes. Hence Coke and Pepsi

are substitutes: If Coke gets more expensive, wed expect some people (but not all) to

switch to Pepsi. (We know that you would never do such thing, but some consumers just

dont have any principles.) Similarly, gas and commuter rail tickets are substitutes, since

an increase in the price of gas would lead some people to switch from car to train travel.

Conversely, if the cross-price elasticity is negative, we say the products are complements.

The language of business is filled with competitive metaphors for which substitutes seem

appropriate (Coke v. Pepsi). But there are lots of examples of complements, in which a price

Consumers

10

reduction for one product increases demand for others. Skis and boots are one example.

Others include: Windows operating system and Intel microprocessors, beer and pretzels,

gas and cars.

Speaking of cars, Table 2.2 presents the values of direct and cross-price elasticities for

a selected car models. For example, the number 0.2 on the third column, second row means

that a 1% increase in the price of the Accord leads to a 0.2 1% increase in Cavalier sales.

Are the different car models complements or substitutes? What is the model closest to the

Cavalier, in terms of demand? Exercise 2.2 extends the analysis of this example.

Income elasticity. Changes in income also affect demand. Higher income generally

means greater demand for all products, but some products benefit more than others. We

define the income elasticity of a product by

y =

dq

q

dy

y

That is, the percent change in demand induced by a one percent change in income (represented by y).

Economists have names for products with different income elasticities. Inferior goods

have negative income elasticities. Although inferior goods arent all that common, its fun to

try to think of examples. Spam comes to mind, on the assumption that anyone with enough

money would buy something else. (You can see the source of the term.) Normal goods have

positive income elasticities. Within normal goods, those with elasticities between zero and

one are referred to as necessities, and those with elasticities greater than one as luxuries.

Can you explain why?

Application: demand for gasoline. Let us consider a specific example where the above

concepts play an important role. Using historical data on gasoline price and consumption

in the U.S. from 19532004 (see Figure 2.4), the following relation was estimated:

log qG = 9.72 0.0544 log pG + 1.580 log y 0.285 log pC

where qG is gasoline consumption, pG is the price of gasoline, y is income, and pC is the

price of new cars.

What is the price elasticity of gasoline demand? From the analysis above,

=

d log qG

= 0.0544

d log pG

Is gasoline demand elastic or inelastic? Well, since || < 1, we conclude that it is inelastic.

No major surprises here: with the exception of New Yorkers, people need to drive to work,

and there arent many reasonable alternatives to get there (at least not in the short run).

What is the income elasticity of gasoline demand? The answer is

=

d log qG

= 1.579

d log y

Consumers

11

Figure 2.4

U.S. gasoline consumption (1953-2004)

p index (2000=100)

120

100

80

60

40

20

q index

(2000=100)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Is gasoline a normal good? Yes, since the income elasticity is greater than zero. In fact,

since > 1, gasoline is a luxury good. (Well, with the price you now have to pay for it,

gasoline is indeed a luxury that few can afford.) Notice that the threshold that defines a

luxury is not purely arbitrary. In fact, if the income elasticity is greater than 1 then an

increase in income implies that the fraction of income spent on that good increases. So,

richer people not only spend more on gasoline ( > 0) but spend a greater proportion of

their income on gasoline ( > 1).

Are gasoline and new cars complements or substitutes? In order to answer this question, we compute the cross-price elasticity of gasoline demand with respect to the price of

cars. This is given by

d log qG

= 0.285

GC =

d log pC

Since we get a negative value, we conclude that gasoline and cars are complements. This

is probably not very surprising as gasoline is not particularly useful unless you have a car;

and a car is totally useless unless you have gasoline to fuel the engine. (We hope reality

will soon falsify the latter statement!)

To conclude, let us consider the evolution of price and consumption over the period

under consideration. From 1953 to 2004, gasoline consumption increased by 2.6% a year;

price increased 4.2% per annum, income 2.2%, and the price of cars increased at the rate

of 2.8%. The above regression implies an increase in consumption of

qG

qG

= 0.230% + 3.473% 0.798%

= 2.445%

which is pretty close to the actual number, 2.6%. The regression model thus suggests that

the main factor pushing up consumption levels is income. The price of gasoline and the

price of cars had relatively little effect on the growth in consumption from 1953 to 2004.

Consumers

12

Figure 2.5

Supply and demand in two different markets.

pA

pA

D

S2

D2

S1

D1

S0

qA

D0

qA

This example helps explain an apparent paradox, which is illustrated in Figure 2.4:

for some time now, the price of gasoline has been increasing and so has consumption level.

Doesnt this violate the regularity that demand curves are downward sloping, that is, that

demand decreases when price increases? The answer is no, not when there are other factors

varying at the same time. In the next section, we explore this issue in the context of demand

curve estimation.

In an ideal world, firms would know the demands for their products. In practice, its not

so easy. One reason is that its hard to get reliable market data: how much was bought

by whom and at what price. Another reason is that its inherently difficult to tease out

the effect of price from the effect of other variables, especially when the latter might be

changing at the same time as price (or, even worse, when they are not known to us).

We have colleagues who provide this service for a reasonable fee. But you should be

aware of the main challenges in estimating the demand curve and the demand elasticity

from actual data. A central problem is what econometricians refer to as the identification

problem. Consider the case of two different markets depicted in Figure 2.5.

In market A, the demand curve remains constant over three periods, whereas the

supply curve shifts around. The idea is that there were changes in some input price or

the number of suppliers, which in turn shifted the supply curve during the time period in

consideration. The historical data that we observe corresponds to the equilibrium values

of p and q for each period, that is, the points where supply crosses demand. Notice that

these are points along the (stable) demand curve. Implicitly, case A is the situation weve

been assuming all along, that is, the case when the historical pairs of q and p trace out the

demand curve.

But now consider the case of market B. Here the supply curve is fixed over the period

in consideration, whereas the demand curve shifts from period to period, perhaps because

of changes in product quality or consumer income or the price of a substitute product. Now

the historical pairs of p and q trace out the supply curve, not the demand curve. In fact, if

the only source of variation consists in shifts in the demand curve, then there is little hope

of estimating the shape of the demand curve.

More generally, both the supply and the demand curves will shift over time (and across

Consumers

the source of variation: what are the variables that are shifting each curve over time. If

we have enough information about these shifters, then there is hope of identifying both the

demand and the supply curves.

Failure to take into consideration the sources of variation may lead to identification

errors, sometimes gross identification errors. Consider, for example, the case of ticket sales

at the New York Mets, summarized in Box 2.1. Based on the graph at the bottom of the

box, what can you say about the price elasticity of demand? How does the Mets case relate

to the above discussion regarding identification?

Demand for characteristics. To be completed

Alternative paths to estimating demand. Statistical analysis is not the only avenue for

demand estimation. An alternative approach is to obtain data by means of surveys. One

problem with this method is that we are never sure how accurate the responses are going

to be: until your own money is at stake you dont have an incentive to think hard.

Still another approach is to do experiments in markets. Thus catalog companies sometimes send out catalogs to different customers in which some of the prices are different.

These experiments run the risk of alienating customers (what if you find out you got the

high price?), but you can see the value to the firm of knowing the demand for its products.

Finally, if you do not have historical data to estimate demand or the resources to

experiment with price changes, you should at least have an idea of whether demand is more

or less elastic depending on the characteristics of the good in question. In that spirit, here

are some rules of thumb that might help in this process:

Elasticities are higher (in absolute value) on luxuries than necessities. Compare, for

example, food and Armani suits. Consider too the elasticities of the various products

listed in Table 2.1.

Elasticities are higher for specific products (e.g., the iPhone) than for a category as a

whole (smartphones). Why is this so? Because when the price of a specific product

rises, people are willing to buy fewer units. Some of this reduction leads to purchases

of other products in the same category (e.g., Samsung phones), and part to a reduction

in the category as a whole (smartphones). Only the latter shows up in the elasticity

of the category as a whole, so its typically less elastic.

Elasticities are lower (in absolute value) in the short run than in the long run. A

good example is gasoline demand. Can you see why? Suppose, for example, that the

government plans to levy a 100% tax on gasoline for the next 3 years. In the next

day or week consumers would probably still drive their cars, but in the longer term

their demand for gas could change for many reasons. They might buy more fuelefficient cars, carpool, or take the bus or train to work. Perhaps some would work

from home. As a result, the quantity of gasoline demanded at the new price would

gradually decrease.

13

Consumers

14

What makes baseball fans go the ballpark? Clearly having a good team helps but its

not the only factor. Based on ticket sales at the New York Mets Shea Stadium during

the 19942002 seasons, a statistical regression can be performed where the dependent

variable is the number of tickets sold. The following table displays the estimated coefficients of such a regression for a specific section of the Mets stadium: Upper Reserved.

Weekend

1078.63

Evening

-905.58

Season opener

8196.82

July

2410.27

August

1425.13

September

1555.44

October

3774.67

Yankees

9169.82

Constant

401.53

1. For example, if the game is played on a weekend, then everything else constant

1,078.63 more tickets were sold on average. Considering that the Upper Reserve

capacity is about 17,000 seats, these are economically significant coefficients: for

example, playing against the New York Yankees leads to an increase in ticket sales

equivalent to more than one half of capacity.

What about ticket prices? Until 2002, prices did not vary within each season. They did

vary from season to season, but so did team quality, which is hard to measure but is

certainly an important demand shifter. For these reasons, it is not possible to estimate

the price elasticity of demand. This is corroborated by the graph below, which plots

average price and average attendance on a yearly basis. Notice the resemblance with

the right panel in Figure 2.5 and the accompanying discussion.

p ($)

10

q (year total)

(000)

4

0

250

500

750

All estimated coefficients are statistically significant at the 2% level; year dummies and a constant are

also included but not reported; N = 651, R2 = 0.44.

Consumers

15

The price elasticity of demand tends to be higher (in absolute value) for luxuries; for narrow

product categories; and in the long run.

Summary

The demand curve gives the quantity demanded of a given good as a function of its

price and of other factors; it can be derived from consumer preferences.

A change in price leads to a shift along the demand curve; a change in other factors

leads to a shift in the demand curve itself.

Consumer surplus is the difference between willingness to pay and price.

The price elasticity of demand is the ratio between the percentage change in

quantity and the percentage change in price, for a small change in price.

The price elasticity of demand tends to be higher (in absolute value) for luxuries; for

narrow product categories; and in the long run.

Key concepts

preferences indifference curve budget set demand function inverse

demand function demand curve willingness to pay consumer surplus

price elasticity of demand cross price elasticity substitutes.

complements income elasticity inferior goods normal goods

necessities luxuries identification problem

2.1. Village microbrew. Village microbrew raised its price from $10 to $12 a case (wholesale). As a result, sales dropped from 10,500 to 8,100 (in units).

(a) What is the elasticity of demand?

(b) Based on your estimate of the demand elasticity, what percent change

would you predict if price were cut from $10 to $9? What demand

level would this correspond to?

2.2. Cars. Table 2.2 gives the own and cross-price elasticities for selected automobile

models.3 Specifically, each cell corresponds to the demand elasticity of the car model in the

Consumers

16

row with respect to changes in the price of the car model in column.

(a) Why are the own elasticities so high?

(b) Are the Accord and Taurus complements or substitutes?

(c) What are the Tauruss closest competitors?

(d) If GM lowers the price of its Chevy Cavalier, does it cannibalize its

Buick Century sales?

(e) Why is the direct elasticity for the Mazda not lower than the elasticity

for more expensive models (as the rule of thumb would suggest)?

Consumers

17

(f) Suppose Honda sold 300,000 Accords in 2001. In 2002, the price of the

Accord decreased by 2%, whereas the price of the Taurus decreased

by 3%. What is the likely change in Accord sales?

2.3. Demand elasticity. Based on the values in Table 2.1, provide an estimate of the impact

on sales revenues of a 10% increase in each products price.

Challenging exercises

2.4. Netflix and Blockbuster. Suppose the demand for Netflix is given by

qN = a bN pN + bB pB ,

where qN is the number of Netflix subscriptions, pN the price of a Netflix plan, and pB the

price of a Blockbuster plan.

(a) What is the price elasticity of Netflix subscriptions?

(b) Suppose a = 500, bN = 10, bB = 5, and pB = pN = 50. What

are N s elasticity and cross-price elasticity? Are products N and B

substitutes or complements?

(c) How much do consumers get in surplus at these prices?

2.5. Lamborghini. The current U.S. demand for the Lamborghini Gallardo SE is elastic;

specifically, it is estimated that demand elasticity is given by = 3. The current price is

p = $120, 000. Annual sales at this price amount to q = 160 (number of cars).

(a) What do you estimate would be the impact of an increase in price to

$140,000?

The cross price elasticity of Lamborghinis with respect to the price of the Maserati MC12

is LM = .05; and with respect to the price of gasoline, LG = .1.

(b) What are the definitions of a substitute and of a complement? Are

Maserati MC12 and gasoline substitutes or complements with respect

to Lamborghinis? Can you think of other substitutes and complements to the Lamborghini Gallardo SE?

(c) Suppose that, in addition to the price increase considered in (a), there

is also an increase in the price of the Maserati MC12 (from $110,000

to $115,000); and an increase in the price of gasoline (from $2 to $2.8

per gallon). What do you estimate will be the new demand for the

Lamborghini Gallardo SE?

Consumers

Endotes

1. Although we think of qi as a function of pi , we normally measure price on the vertical axis. British

economist Alfred Marshall started doing it this way back in the 19th century and things havent changed

ever since.

2. This is basic calculus; the equation is valid for any base logarithm, including natural log, sometimes

written ln.

3. Source: BLP, 1990 data.

18

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