May 22, 2015

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VALUATION WARNING: Overvalued stocks now make up 65.25% of our

stocks assigned a valuation and 27.47% of those equities are calculated to
be overvalued by 20% or more. ALL sectors are calculated to be
overvalued--with nine at or near double digits.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Index

Started week

Friday AM

Change

Change %

ytd

DJIA

18187.78

18255

67.22

0.37%

2.42%

NASDAQ

5003.26

5049.25

45.99

0.92%

6.82%

RUSSELL 2000

1234.59

1243.47

8.88

0.72%

3.22%

S&P 500

2115.56

2121.11

5.55

0.26%

3.02%

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued

34.75%

Stocks Overvalued

65.25%

Stocks Undervalued by 20%

11.76%

Stocks Overvalued by 20%

27.47%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector

Change

MTD

YTD

Valuation

Last 12-M
Return

P/E
Ratio

Aerospace

-0.11%

1.79%

7.15%

22.47% overvalued

1.72%

21.07

Auto-Tires-Trucks

0.42%

1.78%

6.78%

6.18% overvalued

-0.76%

16.7

Basic Materials

-0.14%

0.78%

3.67%

0.72% overvalued

-12.48%

24.79

Business Services

-0.45%

1.43%

7.58%

10.13% overvalued

8.15%

26.43

Computer and Technology

0.20%

2.62%

6.73%

15.73% overvalued

9.47%

31.51

Construction

0.00%

2.69%

4.02%

6.82% overvalued

4.58%

25.17

Consumer Discretionary

0.12%

2.37%

8.54%

11.32% overvalued

3.28%

28.17

Consumer Staples

-0.18%

1.85%

4.96%

14.21% overvalued

4.64%

25.17

Finance

-0.13%

0.63%

4.08%

6.74% overvalued

5.04%

17.86

Industrial Products

0.58%

2.12%

4.22%

4.51% overvalued

-3.05%

20.21

Medical

-0.08%

2.36%

12.59%

22.06% overvalued

16.08%

31.53

Multi-Sector Conglomerates

-0.28%

1.26%

5.00%

9.33% overvalued

3.70%

22.72

Oils-Energy

0.96%

-3.06%

4.02%

11.14% overvalued

-30.63%

26.01

Retail-Wholesale

0.17%

2.03%

2.71%

10.97% overvalued

9.73%

26.86

Transportation

0.00%

0.51%

2.85%

3.55% overvalued

5.84%

19.91

Utilities

-0.04%

0.57%

3.37%

6.43% overvalued

0.62%

21.57

ValuEngine Newsletters Latest Results

VE Newsletter

Current
Benchmark *
Month Total

Last Month
Total

Benchmark *

Since
Inception

Benchmark *

Forecast MNS

N/A

N/A

5.15

1.09

124.24

31.97

Dividend Stock

0.57

1.00

-1.69

-1.16

10.34

35.72

Small Cap Stock

2.27

-0.78

3.77

2.72

33.36

59.57

View

-1.14

1.36

0.31

-0.34

125.13

87.72

*NOTE: Benchmark for Forecast MNS for last month and inception is the MLSAX Long/Short Fund.
Benchmark for Small Cap is the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (RUT). Benchmark for current month
Forecast MNS and all other portfolios for all time frames is the S&P500.

Sector TalkConsumer Discretionary

Below, we present the latest data on leading Consumer Discretionary Sector
stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by
market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day
volume.

Top-Five Consumer Discretionary Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast

Returns
Ticker

Company Name

Market Price

Valuation

P/E Ratio

PPC

PILGRIMS PRIDE

26.24

-4.45%

4.54%

SAFM

SANDERSON FARMS

83.96

5.49%

-1.08%

TSN

TYSON FOODS A

43.49

-1.42%

9.33%

SVU

SUPERVALU INC

9.13

24.91%

24.05%

ANFI

AMIRA NATURE FD

11.2

N/A

-19.54%

Top-Five Consumer Discretionary Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast

Returns
Ticker

Company Name

Market Price

Valuation

P/E Ratio

PPC

PILGRIMS PRIDE

26.24

-4.45%

4.54%

SAFM

SANDERSON FARMS

83.96

5.49%

-1.08%

TSN

TYSON FOODS A

43.49

-1.42%

9.33%

SVU

SUPERVALU INC

9.13

24.91%

24.05%

ANFI

AMIRA NATURE FD

11.2

N/A

-19.54%

Top-Five Consumer Discretionary Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker

Company Name

Market Price

Valuation

P/E Ratio

PPC

PILGRIMS PRIDE

26.24

-4.45%

4.54%

TSN

TYSON FOODS A

43.49

-1.42%

9.33%

MDP

MEREDITH CORP

53.07

0.77%

17.41%

CSV

CARRIAGE SVCS-A

25.44

-0.57%

49.65%

SAFM

SANDERSON FARMS

83.96

5.49%

-1.08%

Top-Five Consumer Discretionary Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker

Company Name

Market Price

Valuation

P/E Ratio

SSP

EW SCRIPPS CO

21.92

165.25%

12.70%

STKL

SUNOPTA INC

10.78

63.99%

-14.31%

GCI

GANNETT INC

35.99

60.60%

30.40%

SCHL

SCHOLASTIC CORP

44.51

41.29%

42.30%

ADM

ARCHER DANIELS

52.92

40.20%

20.66%

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we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports
CVS Health Corporation (CVS) is a pharmacy innovation company. Its offerings
include pharmacy benefit management services, mail order, retail and specialty
pharmacy, disease management programs, and retail clinics. The Company serves
employers, insurance companies, unions, government employee groups, managed
care organizations and other sponsors of health benefit plans, and individuals under
the CVS Caremark Pharmacy Services, Caremark, CVS Caremark, CarePlus
CVS/pharmacy, RxAmerica, Accordant, SilverScript, and Novologix names. CVS
Health Corporation, formerly known as CVS Caremark Corporation, is headquartered
in Woonsocket, Rhode Island.

VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION: ValuEngine continues its HOLD recommendation

on CVS HEALTH CORP for 2015-05-21. Based on the information we have gathered
and our resulting research, we feel that CVS HEALTH CORP has the probability to
ROUGHLY MATCH average market performance for the next year. The company
exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size but UNATTRACTIVE Book Market Ratio.

As a bonus to our Newsletter readers,

we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports
Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on CVS Health Corp HERE.

ValuEngine Forecast
Target
Price*

Expected
Return

1-Month

103.70

0.01%

3-Month

103.76

0.07%

6-Month

104.98

1.25%

1-Year

103.76

0.06%

2-Year

119.64

15.39%

3-Year

80.72

-22.16%

Valuation & Rankings

Valuation

16.13% overvalued

Valuation Rank(?)

1-M Forecast Return

0.01%

1-M Forecast Return Rank

12-M Return

35.19%

Momentum Rank(?)

Sharpe Ratio

0.99

Sharpe Ratio Rank(?)

5-Y Avg Annual Return

19.79%

5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank

33
51
86
94
88

Volatility

19.95%

Volatility Rank(?)

Expected EPS Growth

16.19%

EPS Growth Rank(?)

Market Cap (billions)

118.87

Size Rank

Trailing P/E Ratio

22.28

Trailing P/E Rank(?)

Forward P/E Ratio

19.18

Forward P/E Ratio Rank

40

PEG Ratio

1.38

PEG Ratio Rank

37

Price/Sales

0.83

Price/Sales Rank(?)

Market/Book

3.21

Market/Book Rank(?)

Beta

1.05

Beta Rank

Alpha

0.21

Alpha Rank

80
55
100
54

73
38
46
87

What's Hot?
--VE Forecast Market Neutral Newsletter Posts
Strong Pick Up Due to Short Positions
It's back to our winning ways for the ValuEngine Forecast 16 Market Neutral
Strategy Newsletter in April/May with some real nice performance from our short side.
Our gain of 5.15 % versus the benchmark MLSAX's* gain of 0.39% was a significant

beat. The modified stop-lossed strategy with a suggested 60-40 allocation trailed the
standard market neutral allocation with a gain of 3.92%. The trailing 12 month
percentage return is 17.75% for the newsletter and 8.52% for the MLSAX Long-Short
Fundand 12.87% for the SP500. Since inception, our portfolio has returned 124.24% vs
the MLSAX return of 31.97%.*
*NOTE: We have begun to use the MLSAX Long-Short Fund as a benchmark. This compares the performance of our strategy to
other similar strategies. We also include the S&P500 numbers.

It was a bit of a paradox this month as our longs were lacklusterwith a hit rate
just over 50%-- despite the overall market putting in some new highs. Bright spots for
longs were Western Union, Starz Liberty, and TeeKay Tankers. Thankfully, our shorts
picked up the slackand then some. A hit rate of 88% with big pick ups from
Peabody Energy, Caesar's, Eneroc, and YRC Worldwide powered up our overall
gains. Only Ignite ruined the short party, with losses in excess of 20%.
Find Out More About the VE Forecast 16 MNS Newsletter HERE
Please click HERE to subscribe. You may download a sample copy HERE.
With the latest market leg up and the new highs, we have seen a spike in our
valuation figures yet again. While we remain convinced that US equities remain the
"only game in town" as long as the Fed policy of zero to-low interest rates remains in
place and the rest of the world struggles to deal with a variety of crises, a relatively
strong dollar, relatively low energy prices (although not as low as expected just a few
months ago), etc.
However, we have been on quite a run since the devilish interday S&P 500 low
of 666 back in March, 2009. Where, oh where is the "BUY GOLD! BUY GUNS! BUY
SEEDS!" crowd today? We finally see signs of hope across the labor market, with some
increases in wages, better hiring, etc. The recovery there is much needed, and
represents the last piece of the puzzle to end the greatest economic crisis since the
Great Depression.
However, all good things must come to an end. But for that to occur, money
must rotate somewhere. And we simply have not found that place--yet. But keep in
mind that in the past, these sorts of valuation levels have been correlated with market
declines. This is a time for investors to make sure they are prepared for a move to the
downside by taking some profits or hedging against a sell off. Of course, this may be
a blip and we may not see a decline. We operated under a valuation warning for
much of 2013 and 2014 during this unprecedented rally.
Here are the primary long and short-side selections and their performance for the
month:

Position

Ticker

Company Name

Entry Price Exit Price Change %Change

4/17/15

Sector

Long 1

SPR

SPIRIT AEROSYS

52.67

53.96

1.29

2.45

AEROSPACE

Long 1

AXL

AMER AXLE & MFG

24.78

25.09

0.31

1.25

AUTO TIRES TRUCKS

Long 1

UTD STATES STL

26.10

24.31

-1.79

-6.84

BASIC MATERIALS

Long 1

WU

WESTERN UNION

20.74

22.42

1.68

8.10

BUSINESS SERVICES

Long 1

TSEM

TOWER SEMICOND

17.79

15.62

-2.17

-12.20

COMPUTERS
TECHNOLOGY

Long 1

BZH

BEAZER HOMES

18.65

18.66

0.01

0.05

CONSTRUCTION

Long 1

STRZA

STARZ-LIB CAP-A

37.55

40.32

2.77

7.38

CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY

Long 1

GCI

GANNETT INC

35.95

36.03

0.08

0.22

CONSUMER STAPLES

Long 1

CIM

CHIMERA INVEST

15.82

14.45

-1.37

-8.66

FINANCE

Long 1

ACCO

ACCO BRANDS CP

8.45

7.94

-0.51

-6.04

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS

Long 1

GILD

GILEAD SCIENCES

103.34

110.56

7.22

6.99

MEDICAL
MULTI-SECTOR
CONGLOM

Long 1

GFF

GRIFFON CORP

Long 1

PZE

PETROBRAS EGY

Long 1

TA

TRAVELCENTERS

16.39

-0.95

-5.48

7.51

7.27

-0.24

-3.20

OILS ENERGY

17.18

16.00

-1.18

-6.87

RETAIL WHOLESALE

17.34

Long 1

TNK

TEEKAY TANKERS

6.09

6.68

0.59

9.69

TRANSPORTATION

Long 1

TEO

TELECOM ARGENTI

20.87

21.02

0.15

0.71

UTILITIES

Short 1

AVAV

AEROVIRONMENT

26.26

26.38

-0.12

-0.46

AEROSPACE

Short 1

NAV

NAVISTAR INTL

29.37

28.42

0.95

3.23

AUTO TIRES TRUCKS

Short 1

CDE

COEUR MINING

5.69

5.34

0.35

6.15

BASIC MATERIALS

Short 1

ENOC

ENERNOC INC

11.30

9.57

1.73

15.31

BUSINESS SERVICES

Short 1

FUEL

ROCKET FUEL INC

8.99

8.24

0.75

8.34

COMPUTERS
TECHNOLOGY

Short 1

RYN

RAYONIER INC

26.36

25.75

0.61

2.31

CONSTRUCTION

Short 1

CZR

CAESARS ENTERTN

12.21

9.97

2.24

18.35

CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY

Short 1

RDEN

ELIZABETH ARDEN

15.38

14.82

0.56

3.64

CONSUMER STAPLES

Short 1

GNW

GENWORTH FINL

7.99

7.90

0.09

1.13

FINANCE

Short 1

ASCMA

ASCENT CAP GRP

40.21

39.97

0.24

0.60

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS

Short 1

AKBA

AKEBIA THERAP

8.67

8.23

0.44

5.07

MEDICAL

Short 1

RAVN

RAVEN INDS INC

20.97

20.32

0.65

3.10

MULTI-SECTOR
CONGLOM

Short 1

BTU

PEABODY ENERGY

5.29

3.76

1.53

28.87

OILS ENERGY

Short 1

IRG

IGNITE RESTRNT

3.85

4.67

-0.82

-21.30

RETAIL WHOLESALE

Short 1

YRCW

YRC WORLDWD INC

16.51

14.32

2.19

13.26

TRANSPORTATION

Short 1

SPRINT CORP

5.10

4.73

0.37

7.25

UTILITIES

PORTFOLIO TOTAL
GSPC

S&P500

5.15
2097.45

2074.28

-23.17

-1.10

LONG PORTFOLIO

-0.78

SHORT PORTFOLIO

5.93

Find Out More About the VE Forecast 16 MNS HERE

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