Power

Transfer
Democracy

Tests

Nigeria's

Summary
Nigeria is preparing for its first inter-party transition of power since the
country's democratization in 1999. The success of the transfer will be a
telling indicator of Nigeria's geopolitical stability. On May 29, two
months after the elections, President Goodluck Jonathan of the People's
Democratic Party will hand power to Muhammadu Buhari of the All
Progressives Congress. Had Jonathan remained in office, his continued
hold on power would have threatened the stability of the country, and
he probably would not have finished his full four-year term. Buhari is
in a better position than his predecessor, but he must still balance major
political, economic and security concerns if his tenure is to be
considered successful.

Analysis
The defeat of the People's Democratic Party was partially a vote of no
confidence in Jonathan's administration. But more fundamental, and
geopolitically significant, the election outcome prevented the party
from obtaining a monopoly on political and economic power through a
narrow constituency that would have placed substantial political and
security stress on the Nigerian state at a particularly trying time for the
country.
Yet, it will not be an entirely smooth road for incoming president
Buhari, a former general and junta leader who presided over Nigeria
from 1983 to 1985. Buhari is tasked with restoring Nigeria's territorial
integrity and national security, which are threatened by the Islamist
militant group Boko Haram. He must also manage relations with the
indigenous population in the country's oil-producing Niger Delta
region. Both tasks will be made more complicated by lower oil and
natural gas revenues, which have ushered in a period of austerity. With

the budget shortfall, Buhari's All Progressives Congress will have to find
a way to support popular programs such as fuel subsidies while also
confronting the corruption that is endemic to Nigeria.

Early
Signs
Challenges

of

Progress,

Looming

Buhari appears to be already pursuing several key policy initiatives.

Stratfor sources in the Nigerian military say that morale has soared
since Buhari's election and that increased support and materiel
provided to the army to attack Boko Haram will be sustained. The
military can expect overall support from the government which had
been relatively minimal under the Jonathan administration to rise.
Meanwhile, Niger Delta militants informed Stratfor that Buhari's team
has already reached out to them and was received positively. According
to these sources, militancy that in the past targeted expatriate oil
workers, oil pipelines, flow stations and loading platforms is unlikely to
resume, at least so long as patronage relations with the Buhari
administration are not disrupted.
Corruption, on the other hand, will be more difficult for Buhari to
manage. Several of the new president's allies have been accused of
corruption in the past, and it will be difficult for him to uproot deeply
entrenched practices in Nigeria. Given the country's austere financial
conditions, it will be almost impossible to balance all the competing
demands against the limits of the federal treasury. Reining in and
shifting the culture of corruption will not be a short-term task,
exacerbating the economic limitations facing Buhari.
There is an overall sense of optimism in Nigeria ahead of this historic
government transition. Though the outgoing Jonathan administration
may have had a generous style of leadership, Stratfor sources state that
he was taken advantage of by his supposed allies in the People's
Democratic Party. As a result, Jonathan effectively lost the crucial
power-sharing balance needed to effectively govern the country. Buhari
will have to govern through a similar power-sharing agreement,
through which representatives from Nigeria's six geopolitical zones will

be able to facilitate patronage to their respective constituents. Thus,

though Buhari is heading into his May 29 inauguration with positive
momentum, significant political, economic and security challenges
loom.
Source:
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/power-transfer-testsnigerias-democracy