1RiskAssessment Theory

SummerSchool 2005
Herceg Novi, 3th- 11th Sep 2005

Flood Damage Assessment and Risk Mapping
Theory Script
Student: _________________________
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Erik Pasche

Dipl.-Ing. Stephan Krig, kraessig@tuhh.de
Dipl.-Ing. Monika Donner, monika.donner@tuhh.de
F l o o d D a m a g e A s s e s s m e n t a n d R i s k Ma p p i n g
Contents
1
Introduction ....................................................................................................... 1
Flood Risk .......................................................................................................... 3
2.1
Risk .............................................................................................................. 3
2.2
Risk Assessment.......................................................................................... 4
2.3
Risk Management ........................................................................................ 4
2.4
Hazard.......................................................................................................... 4
2.5
Vulnerability.................................................................................................. 4
2.6
Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence .................................................... 5
2.7
Risk units...................................................................................................... 6
2.7.1
Probability ............................................................................................. 6
2.7.2
Frequency ............................................................................................. 7
2.7.3
Consequence ........................................................................................ 7
2.8
Units of consequence................................................................................... 7
2.9
Problem of uncertainty ................................................................................. 8
2.10
Parameters for risk mapping ........................................................................ 8
Scale for analyse ............................................................................................... 9

3.1
Microscale approach .................................................................................... 9
3.2
Mesoscale und macroscale approach .......................................................... 9
3.3
Evaluation .................................................................................................. 10
Project Area ..................................................................................................... 11

4.1
Rivers and streams .................................................................................... 11
4.2
Groundwater flooding ................................................................................. 12
4.3
Flooding from overland flow ....................................................................... 12
4.4
Blocked or overloaded drainage systems................................................... 12
4.5
Kellinghusen, flood situation....................................................................... 12
Herceg Novi, September 2005, TUHH - River and Coastal Engineering
Methodology for damage potential assessment .......................................... 14

5.1
Statistical-economical assessment of asset value...................................... 14
5.1.1
Net Asset Value at purchase price ...................................................... 14
5.1.2
Net Asset Value at actual price ........................................................... 14
5.2
The method of Regionalisation................................................................... 15
5.2.1
Population ........................................................................................... 15
5.2.2
Asset value: Settlement ...................................................................... 16
5.2.2.1
Property asset.............................................................................. 16
5.2.2.2
Inventory (residence contents)..................................................... 16
5.2.2.3
Motor vehicles asset .................................................................... 16
5.2.2.4
Calculation of specific asset value ............................................... 17
5.2.3
5.2.3.1
Asset values: Economy................................................................ 19
5.2.3.2
Calculating of specific asset values ............................................. 21
5.2.4
Stock value for economic landuse types ............................................. 19
Agriculture ........................................................................................... 21
5.2.4.1
Arable........................................................................................... 22
5.2.4.2
Meadows...................................................................................... 22
5.2.4.3
Forest........................................................................................... 22
Damage Functions .......................................................................................... 24

6.1.1
Dutch experience in stage-damage curves ......................................... 25
6.1.2
German experience in stage-damage curves...................................... 25
6.1.3
IKSE, Elbe........................................................................................... 26
6.1.4
IKSR, Rhine ........................................................................................ 26
6.1.5
Evaluation ........................................................................................... 27
6.1.5.1
Arable........................................................................................... 27
6.1.5.2
Meadows...................................................................................... 27
6.1.5.3
Forest........................................................................................... 27
Annual damage potential................................................................................ 29
Method for damage assessment .................................................................... 32

8.1
Survey Data ............................................................................................... 32
8.2
Program Run .............................................................................................. 35
8.3
Microscale damage assessment for Kellinghusen ..................................... 37
8.4
Mesoscale damage assessment for Kellinghusen ..................................... 38

II
Risk Assessment and Mapping...................................................................... 47

9.1
Risk classification ....................................................................................... 47
9.1.1
Thresholds, urban areas ..................................................................... 48
9.1.2
Thresholds, rural areas ....................................................................... 49
9.2
Risk mapping ............................................................................................. 51
Figures
Figure 1-1: Dresden Flood, August 2002.................................................................... 1
Figure 1-2: Broken dike (Dresden) during flood event in August 2002 ....................... 2
Figure 2-1: Hazard-Risk-Vulnerability......................................................................... 3
Figure 2-2: Multi-dimensions of risk............................................................................ 4
Figure 2-3: Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence ................................................ 6
Figure 4-1: Catchment Area of River Str ................................................................ 11
Figure 4-2: City of Kellinghusen, flood event 2002 ................................................... 12
Figure 6-1: Damage functions of the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and
Water Management ........................................................................................... 25
Figure 6-2: Damage function of IKSE ....................................................................... 26
Figure 6-3: Damage function of IKSR....................................................................... 26
Figure 7-1: Annual damage potential, withP0=0,2..................................................... 29
Figure 8-1: Survey Data, ALK and ATKIS ................................................................ 32
Figure 8-2: Landuse types ALK, Kellinghusen.......................................................... 33
Figure 8-3: Merged landuse types, Kellinghusen...................................................... 33
Figure 8-4: Program run ........................................................................................... 35
Figure 8-5: Calculation of specific damage potential using raster data..................... 36
Figure 8-6: Boundary conditions, 2d-hydraulic Kellinghusen .................................... 38
Figure 8-7: Landuse types: damage functions.......................................................... 39
Figure 8-8: Specific annual damage, Kellingusen..................................................... 40
Figure 9-1: Hazard zones of German insurance companies .................................... 48
Figure 9-2: Risk map Kellinghusen........................................................................... 51
III
Tables
Table 3-1: Scale ......................................................................................................... 9
Table 5-1: Area and population in Schleswig-Holstein according to districts,
STATISTIC AGENCY FOR HAMBURG AND SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN ............................... 15
Table
5-2:
Private
households
in
Schleswig-Holstein,
Statistic Agency fr Hamburg und Schleswig-Holstein ...................................... 16

Table
5-3:
Motor
vehicles-
Schleswig-Holstein,
STATISTIC AGENCY FR HAMBURG UND SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN ............................... 17

Table 5-4: Specific asset value: settlement .............................................................. 17
Table 5-5: Stock value for economic landuses, GERMAN STATISTIC AGENCY .............. 19
Table 5-6: Net asset value at actual price, economic, Schleswig-Holstein,
STATISTIC AGENCY FR HAMBURG UND SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN ............................... 19
Table 5-7: Areas of Real estate in Schleswig-Holstein ............................................. 20
Table 5-8: Landuse types: Areas for calculating specific asset values ..................... 20
Table 5-9: Specific asset values for main landuse types .......................................... 21
Table 5-10: Main arable products and the output in Schleswig-Holstein .................. 22
Table 5-11: asset value, forest ................................................................................. 22
Table 6-1: Comparison of damage function IKSE and IKSR .................................... 27
Table 8-1: Merged landuse groups........................................................................... 34
Table 8-2: Annual damage, Kellinghusen ................................................................. 37
Table 8-3: Boundary Conditions ............................................................................... 38
Table 8-4: Landuse types: Specific asset ................................................................. 39
Table 8-5: Damage of flood event HQ10 and HQ100 for Kellinghusen...................... 39
Table 9-1: Zoning system of insurance companies in Germany ............................... 47
Table 9-2: Thresholds, calculated in the river Str catchment .................................. 48
IV
1 Introduction
In the past three years significant flooding has affected a majority of states in West
and Central Europe. Floods in Germany, Chech Republic, Slovakia, Austria and Italy,
have caused a number of fatalities, destroyed businesses, homes and public
infrastructure. These flood events produced an increased public interest in flood risk
management issues, and also a greater awareness of the need for improving the
knowledge supporting flood risk management.
Figure 1-1: Dresden Flood, August 2002
Like is to be seen in Figure 1-1, different areas are endangered with floods. The most
vulnerable areas and areas where flood cause high damage are city areas. Flood,
like natural disaster is actually, only just after a flood event an interesting common
topic. Soon after a flood, public forgets this problems and only direct victims are ones
that will be aware in the future. On the other hand, migration of people is nowadays
normal and a fast process, As flood usually does not occur very often, that leads to
the situation that residents are totally unprepared for the flood. This unde-sirable
situation must be avoided by risk assessment and mapping.
Beside the loss of lives, flood can cause damage to tangible assets and causes
economic damage. At present, the following trends are noticed, pointing up the
importance of flood protection in flood affected areas:
Increase in potential damage:

Increase in economic value in flood affected areas through changes in landuse
Increase in number of extreme flood events:

Increase in discharge because of river training or of climate changes
Flood damage does not exist per se. It is created only if a human and his assets are
affected. However, if flood events do not occur for a long period of time, people
potentially affected by flood (stakeholders) forget about the risk to flooding and
damage the flood event can cause.
Therefore, risk maps are an important means of communication in sustainable flood
management, as they provide and map the information to the public.
Further, it is necessary to determine the risk as a function of discharge for the flood
events with high values of return period. The relation between the probability of a
flood event and corresponding damage potential, gives the damage probability, that
can be calculated by integration of the annual damage potential.
Figure 1-2: Broken dike (Dresden) during flood event in August 2002
Damage potential assessment is obtained as a result of a risk analysis, which is

composed of the following steps:
1. Determination of design discharge using Hydrological Models
2. 1d or 2d-Hydraulik Modelling to calculate design waterstages
3. Outline of innundation areas
4. Determination of damage potential and expected annual damage value
5. Risk Assessment
The extent of potential damage is considerably affected by the flood plains as well as
the water depth and the duration of a flood event and by the type of landuse.
2 Flood Risk
Flooding cause direct damage to property and infrastructure as well as human
anxiety and disruption to normal life. Flooding can also threaten sites of valuable
conservation and archaeological interest. However, the main focus is the risk to
people and property. It is neither practically nor economically feasible to eliminate all
flood risk. The most suitable approach for dealing with flooding will be to manage the
risk in a best way. To be able to analyse manage flood risk, it is necessary to
understand what is meant with terms Risk and Hazard and for that purpose it is
important that appropriate terminology is used.
2.1
Risk
While the term hazard means to be threatened by a flood event, the term risk
connects the potential damage extent (vulnerability) with the corresponding
probability. The damage that occurs is created as a result of a conflict between the
impact (flood) and landuse. Vulnerability, in technical sense, is the resistance of the
buildings and infrastructure to flood and in sociological sense, is related to the ability
of the humans to regenerate after flood events.
Hazard
Risk
Vulnerability
Figure 2-1: Hazard-Risk-Vulnerability
It is important to notice that the technical vulnerability is possible to quantify in

monetary values while one can only qualitatively assess the impact of flood event on
humans. Risk therefore, is a combination of the chance of a particular event, with the
impact that the event would cause if it occurred. Risk has two components: the
chance or probability of an event occurring and the impact or consequence associated with that event. The consequence of an event may be either desirable or
undesirable. Generally, however, the flood and coastal defence community is

concerned with protecting society and hence a risk is typically concerned with the
likelihood of an undesirable consequence and our ability to manage or prevent it.
2.2
Risk Assessment
The process of identifying hazards and consequences, estimating the magnitude and
probability of consequences and assessing the significance of risk.
Figure 2-2: Multi-dimensions of risk
2.3
Risk Management
According to context, either action taken to mitigate risk, or the complete process of
risk assessment, options appraisal and risk mitigation.
2.4
Hazard
Hazard is the potential of an event to cause harm and risk is the likelihood of harm.
2.5
Vulnerability
Refers to the resilience of a particular group, people, property and the environment,
and their ability to respond to a hazardous condition. For example, elderly people
may be less able to evacuate in the event of a rapid flood than young people.
2.6
Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence
Source is synonymous with hazard and refers to a situation with the potential for
harm (heavy rainfall, strong winds). To implement flood defence systems that can
manage these undesirable outcomes it is necessary to understood them. The term
risk has a range of meanings and multiple dimensions relating to safety, economic,
environmental and social issues (Figure 2-2). These different meanings often reflect
the needs of particular decision-makers and as a result there is no unique specific
definition for risk and any attempt to develop one would inevitably satisfy only a
proportion of risk managers.
The pathway provides the connection between a particular hazard being realised and
the receptor that may be harmed. For example, the pathway may consist of the flood
defences and flood plain between a flow in the river channel (the source) and a
housing development (the receptor).
Receptor refers to the asset that may be harmed. For example, in the event of the
heavy rainfall (the source) flood water may propagate across the flood plain (the
pathway) and inundate housing (the receptor) that may suffer material damage (the
harm or consequence)
To understand the linkage between hazard and consequence it is useful to consider
the common adopted Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (Figure 2-3) model.
This is, essentially, a simple conceptual tool for representing systems and processes
that lead to a particular consequence. For a risk to arise there must be hazard that
consists of a source or initiator event (high rainfall); a receptor (cliff top or flood plain
properties); and a pathway between the source and the receptor (flood routes
including defences, overland flow or landslide). A hazard does not automatically lead
to a harmful outcome, but identification of a hazard does mean that there is a
possibility of harm occurring. Within such an analysis it must be recognised that there
are likely to be multiple sources, pathways and receptors. Therefore, the
methodology to determine the likelihood of a defined consequence occurring
(material damage to property) must be capable of integrating several (possibly
interacting) mechanisms and the linkage between the various sources, pathways and
receptors.
Figure 2-3: Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence
One of the key aims of flood risk assessment is to understand and be aware of the
complexities of the situation as best as possible, then to simplify the situation down to
an acceptable level to allow practical measures to be put on place. It is also important
to notice that people have the greatest control over the receptor.
2.7
Risk units
Risk always has units. However, the units of risk depends on how the likelihood and
consequence are defined. For example, both the likelihood and consequence may be
expressed in a number of equally valid ways. Likelihood can be considered as a
general concept that describes how likely a particular event is to occur. Frequency
and probability can also be used to express likelihood. However, these terms have
different meanings and are often confused. It is important to understand the
difference between them.
2.7.1 Probability
May be defined as the chance of occurrence of one event compared to the
population of all events. It can be expressed in decimal or percentage and is often
reference to a specific time frame, for example as an annual exceedance probability
of lifetime exceedance probability.
2.7.2 Frequency
Defines the expected number of occurrences of a particular extreme event within a
specific timeframe. In the special case of Return Period this is usually expressed in
years.
2.7.3 Consequence
Represents an impact such as economic, social or environmental damage and may
be expressed quantitatively (monetary value), by category (High, Medium, Low) or
descriptively.
2.8
Units of consequence
Flooding and erosion can have many consequences, only some can be expressed in
monetary terms. Consequences can include fatalities, injuries, damage to property or
the environment. Consequences of a defence scheme can include environmental
harm or benefit, improved public access and many others including reduced risks.
The issue of how some of these consequences can be valued continues to be the
subject of contemporary research. However, risk-based decision-making is greatly
simplified if common units of consequence can be agreed upon. It is, therefore, often
better to use 'surrogate measures' of consequence for which data are available. For
example, 'Number of Properties' may be a reasonable surrogate for the degree of
harm/significance of flooding and has the advantage of being easier to evaluate than,
for example economic damage or social impact. An important part of the design of a
risk assessment system is to decide on how the impacts are to be evaluated. Typical
descriptions of consequence are:
Economic damage
Number of people /properties affected
Occurrence of specified event
Degree of harm to an individual (injury, stress etc)
2.9
Problem of uncertainty
In flood defence there is often considerable difficulty in determining the probability

and consequences of flood events. Most engineering failures arise from a complex
combination of events and thus statistical information on their probability and
consequence may be scarce or unavailable. Under these circumstances the engineer
has to resort to hydrological and hydraulic models and expert judgement. Models will
inevitably be an incomplete representation of reality so they will generate a
probability of failure which is inherently uncertain. Similarly, expert judgement are
subjective and inherently uncertain. Thus practically every measure of risk has
uncertainty associated with it.
2.10 Parameters for risk mapping

At present there is in Europe no unique method for risk mapping available. Some
approaches determine risk only on water depths or in combination with velocity and
the return period. The main problem of these methods is the fact that some hydraulic
parameters can cause different damages on various landuse types. Therefore to take
this in account, quantifying monetary damage of a flood event is necessary that these
values can be used in combination with the return period for risk mapping. The
method quantifies the damage potential by using only monetary assessment of direct
damage, is itemised in the following way:
Fixtures
Buildings
Movable assets
Outside facilities (e.g yard, garden)
Stock value (industry, agriculture, retail)
Persons
Animals
Forest and farm vegetation
Infrastructure
The most difficult task is to determine the monetary value of personal damage. In
practice, it is usually done by assessing the number of people affected by a flood
event and provide it as additional information to the risk map.
3 Scale for analyse

Before starting to assess the damage/risk analysis, it is necessary to define the scale
for different levels of planning. In Table 3-1 three different layers with the corresponding scale are presented.
Level of planning
International
flood action plans
international
regional
local river
river
river course
course
Macroscale
Regional
Mesoscale
food action plans

Evaluation of local flood
Microscale
protection projects
Table 3-1: Scale
3.1
Microscale approach
This object related method is based on empirically obtained data, using

questionnaires or interviews with people who are affected by flood. The damage is
assessed for each object separately which requires reliable data collection and
management. Data obtained in this way, can be used as statistical data for
mesoscale approach introduced in the following section.
3.2
Mesoscale und macroscale approach
The mesoscale, area related, approach aggregates single landuse units (settlement,
industry, infrastructure) based on detailed digital administrative geographic data and
gives the value of specific damage based on statistical economic values. The
required data for this approach are economic as well as ATKIS/ALK
OR
CORINE
landuse data.
Macroscale approach is similar to measoscale, only the level is higher, e.g. the scope
is international river catchments like Rhine or Elbe.
3.3
Evaluation
Data collection in case of object related damage assessment is very time-consuming

and is effective only in case of local planning and defining detailed flood protection
policy. Nevertheless, this method is applied in combination with area related when it
is necessary to assess the damage potential of objects of high importance (hospital,
landmarks).
So far, the mesoscale approach based on the asset values obtained from statisticaleconomic data as well as the landuse types obtained from land registry office has
shown good results in many projects.
10
4 Project Area
First general step in risk assessment is the determination of the river system and
catchment area for analysing all possible influences on flood occurrence in
mesoscale analysis.
Germany
Town ofKellinghusen
Figure 4-1: Catchment Area of River Str
Figure 4-1 shows the catchment area of the river Str. The Str is located in Northern
Germany in the Lnder Schleswig-Holstein. For practical work on risk mapping the
town of Kellinghusen is chosen. Analysing catchment area make experts able to
realise which types of flood can occur. Here is important to find out possible sources
of flooding. There are numbers of possible flooding scenarios.
4.1
Rivers and streams
Excessive rainfall, snow or hail, or a combination of high river levels and high tides
can cause river flooding. Flooding occurs when surface water run-off from the
surrounding area exceeds the flow capacity of the river or stream. Saturation of
surface soils due to wet weather can lead to greater run-off rates and higher flooding
levels. Human activity has increased the risk of flooding from rivers and streams in
many areas. Development has reduced the natural capacity of floodplains and
increased the rate of surface water run-off.
11
4.2
Groundwater flooding
Flooding from groundwater is most likely to occur in areas of chalk, limestone or

other aquifers. This type of flooding generally affects older buildings that back at
hillsides, buildings close to winterbourne streams or houses with basements which
are particularly prone to groundwater flooding.
4.3
Flooding from overland flow
Overland flows can be caused by intensive rainfall on saturated ground, where

groundwater levels are already high, or on paved areas of tarmac or concrete with
inadequate drainage. Properties can be flooded by overland flows if they are located
in areas where floodwater can accumulate.
4.4
Blocked or overloaded drainage systems
Localised flash flooding from blocked or overloaded drainage systems can occur at
times of heavy rainfall. This type of flooding is unpredictable and often occurs in
unexpected locations depending on the location and intensity of rainfall. Such
drainage systems include open drainage ditches and culverts and buried drains and
sewers. Where flooding occurs from full sewers the floodwater will often be
contaminated with sewage. In some cases, contaminated floodwater can flow back
though sewers causing flooding inside buildings.
4.5
Kellinghusen, flood situation
Kellinghusen was often affected by flood in the last years. Wide areas in the
floodplains were inundated both by the Str and from groundwater.
Figure 4-2: City of Kellinghusen, flood event 2002

12
Exercise 1
Create new GIS-Project with the basic topographic data of Kellinghusen!
Program Run:
1) Open ArcView and load the extension:
3d Analyst, Spatial Analyst and relative Pfade
2) Load topographic maps (scale 1:5000) in folder Exercise_1\maps and make
white colour transparent.
3) Load Exercise_1\landuse\kellinghusen.shp, for English translation of the
different landuse types import table: Exercise_1\landuse\alk_key_eng.dbf and
do a table join, based on field objart!
4) Load Exercise_1/finite-elemente-net/2d_net_kelling.shp, to visualise the finiteelemente-net of the 2d-hydraulic model!
5) Import data Source: Exercise_1/inundation_area/wsp_hq100.asc and convert
it to a GRID! Display water depth using legend wsp_hq100.avl!
This inundation area is calculated for a 100year flood event. Would you like to
make a picnic during such an event at location: 3547401,21 / 5979681,14?
5) Create a layout!
6) Use the two scripts: GIS_exercise_engl_WS0405.pdf and GIS_theory_engl_WS0405.pdf for additional information, working with ArcView.
Figure 1: 100year flood event calculated for Kellinghusen

13
5 Methodology for damage potential assessment

Tangible monetary asset values from flood damage are determined in this approach
on the basis on two parameters:
Maximal Damage
Corresponds to the calculated asset value of a landuse unit. It is to consider
that even in case of extreme flood events, this value is not reached.
Damage Factor
Damage functions represent the relation between hydraulic parameters (water
depth) and damage (vulnerability). These functions give information about the
damage extent in percent for different water depths, for each landuse type.
5.1
Statistical-economical assessment of asset value
In addition to the type of landuse in the project area, it is necessary to assess the
monetary value of each landuse type. The asset value is calculated based on the net
asset value. The construction costs as well as the inventory is included in this value.
Net asset value can be calculated applying the following two methods.
5.1.1 Net Asset Value at purchase price

Net Asset Value at purchase price is calculated considering the cost price at the
moment of there purchasing. It is important to distinguish between two concepts:
Brutto concept considers the constant value during the whole lifecycle of asset
Netto concept takes depreciation and amortisation of fixed

assets into account.
If the assets are changing during the time period problems arise.
5.1.2 Net Asset Value at actual price

Net Asset Value at actual price includes all prices for rebuilding flood affected units.
Also in this method two concepts exists:
Netto concept takes into account depreciation.
Brutto concept evaluates without loss of actual value.
Damage assessment based on the netto concept determines realistic monetary

values.
14
5.2
The method of Regionalisation
The method of Regionalisation to calculate the flood damage potential is composed

of three steps:
1. Determination of the asset value per landuse type []
2. Identification of corresponding landuse areas [m]
3. Intersection of statistical-economic data and landuse types for calculation of
specific asset value [/m]
The main advantage of this method is no use of time-consuming mircoscale object
orientated determination of asset values. This approach bases only on statistical
governmental data. The user should recognise that the calculated damages with
these statistical data sets do not represent real damage. The results should be
presented in public therefore carefully cause occurring damage can be much higher
or lower for single objects. The next chapters presents the input data for the
calculation of the net asset values for special landuse types in Schleswig-Holstein.
5.2.1 Population
In this study only the tangible assets are considered. Data about the density of
population serves only as input data for calculation of total asset value and is used to
distinguish between urban and rural districts. Basic data are obtained from
STATISTICS AGENCY
FOR
HAMBURG
AND
SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN and provided in form of
Table 5-1.
district "free" town,
in the district of
area
at 31st
december
2002
number of communities at 31st december 2002

thereof department "free"
communities
total
cities among
these
communities
total
km
FLENSBURG
total
84.480
male among
these
inhabitants
per km at
31st
december
2001
40.902
1.496
118,39
232.242
112.698
1.962
LBECK
214,14
213.496
101.223
997
71,63
79.646
38.463
1.113
Ditmarschen
1428,64
117
111
12
137.447
67.516
96
Herzogtum Lauenburg
1263,00
133
127
11
181.661
88.346
144
Nordfriesland
2048,59
136
11
125
16
165.026
80.829
81
Ostholstein
1391,54
39
16
23
203.386
98.188
146
443
Pinneberg
total
population at 31st
december 2001
KIEL
NEUMNSTER
56,38
number of
departmen
ts at 31st
cities among december
these
2002
communities
thereof department
affiliated communities
664,09
49
12
37
293.914
144.023
Pln
1082,74
86
10
76
133.624
67.199
123
Rendsburg-Eckernfrde
2185,38
166
10
156
19
271.643
134.199
124
Schleweig-Flensburg
2071,64
136
131
18
198.390
98.627
96
Segeberg
1344,35
96
87
252.758
124.108
188
Steinburg
1056,14
114
109
136.548
67.487
129
Stormann
766,25
55
11
44
219.988
106.818
287
15762,90
1.131
105
59
1.026
119
2.804.249
1.370.626
178
Schleswig-Holstein:
Table 5-1: Area and population in Schleswig-Holstein according to districts,

STATISTIC AGENCY FOR HAMBURG AND SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN
15
5.2.2 Asset value: Settlement

Total asset value of settlement is composed of property (asset value), inventory
(residence contents) and private vehicles.
5.2.2.1 Property asset
In 1995 private property asset was fixed to 3.300 Mrd. for 36.22 Mio. households
in Germany. The net asset value can be calculated for each household to 91.000 .
In Table 5-2 private household data for Schleswig-Holstein is given. Total property
asset is set based on these facts to 43.000 per inhabitant for the year 2002.
1970
household
1000
1980
in %
1000
1990
in %
1000
2000
in %
1000
2001
in %
1000
2002
in %
1000
in %
household with 1 person
227
25
299
29
373
32
451
35
477
36
478
36
2 persons
253
28
305
30
398
34
478
37
491
37
497
37
3 persons
174
19
178
17
201
17
176
14
169
13
166
12
4 persons
145
16
158
15
147
13
139
11
140
11
141
11
5 and more persons
114
13
87
53
59
57
58
households (total)
913
100
1.026
100
1.172
100
1.304
100
1.333
100
1.340
100
persons in private households altogether
2.484
100
2.565
100
2.638
100
2.811
100
2.828
100
2.844
100
among these households with 5 and more persons
650
26
477
19
279
11
319
11
303
11
311
11
Table 5-2: Private households in Schleswig-Holstein,

Statistic Agency fr Hamburg und Schleswig-Holstein
5.2.2.2 Inventory (residence contents)

The values of 50.000 is taken, based on the data obtained from different insurance
companies for the year 2002.
5.2.2.3 Motor vehicles asset
In this study, the heavy goods vehicles, mini buses and tractors are not considered
cause they are part of the economic assets.
The values of 10.000 per motor vehicle and 3.000 per motorcycle are adopted,
based on statistic data (Case Study FLOOD DAMAGE POTENTIAL
AND
ON THE RIVER
RHEIN
MOSEL). The total motor vehicle asset value of Schleswig-Holstein is 15 billion
for the year 2003 (Table 5-3). Using the number of households, the total motor
vehicle asset can be divided into the administrative districts.
16
motor
vehicles total motor cycle automobiles &
estate cars
year
there of...
trucks
omnibus
tractors
motor
vehicle
trumbrils
other motor
vehicles
1996
1.652.323
79.079
1.398.533
74.036
3.046
70.692
26.937
158.375
1997
1.683.873
87.370
1.419.432
76.158
2.980
70.140
27.793
167.460
1998
1.710.989
96.009
1.431.868
81.740
2.914
69.921
28.537
174.592
1999
1.735.239
104.878
1.443.006
85.183
2.913
69.931
29.328
181.006
2000
1.764.890
112.118
1.461.713
88.046
2.967
70.170
29.876
191.627
2001
1.826.972
120.415
1.507.812
93.186
2.958
71.525
31.076
201.494
2002
1.859.272
125.437
1.531.853
95.524
2.937
71.622
31.899
208.676
2003
1.870.492
129.230
1.538.893
95.230
2.987
71.628
32.524
214.339
Table 5-3: Motor vehicles- Schleswig-Holstein,

STATISTIC AGENCY FR HAMBURG UND SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN
5.2.2.4 Calculation of specific asset value

In contrast to other landuse types, it is important to consider differences in types of
rural and urban areas for calculating the specific asset value for settlement. In Table
5-4 the proposed method is presented. First determine the asset value per inhabitant
then calculate the specific value based on of the listed administrative districts.
District
Number of
Number
Buildings and
Asset value
Asset value
Asset value
Households
Inhabitants
open space
Settlement
per
settlement/m of
inhabitant
buildings and
Settlement and
open space
(1)
(2)
[ha]
[Mio ]
[/EW]
[/m]
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(2) * (5)
Steinburg
35.582
4.179
Pinneberg 96.121
5.253
83.134
121.940
(4) / (3)
S-H
1.340.000
2.804.249
43.000
147
District
Inventory
Inventory/m of Asset value/m Asset vehicles Specific
Specific asset
buildings and
of buildings
asset
settlement
open space
and open
vehicles
space
[/Household]
[/m]
[/m]
[Mio ]
[/m]
[/m]
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
(1)* (7) / (3)
(6) + (8)
(10) / (3)
(9) + (11)
81
228
18
246
Steinburg
Pinneberg
S-H
50.000
15.000
Table 5-4: Specific asset value: settlement
17
Exercise 2
Calculate the specific asset [/m] for the landuse type settlement in the year 2002 for
the two districts like shown in Table 1:
Steinburg
Pinneberg
District
Number of
Number
Buildings and
Asset value
Asset value
Asset value
Households
Inhabitants
open space
Settlement
per
settlement/m of
inhabitant
buildings and
Settlement and
open space
(1)
(2)
[ha]
[Mio ]
[/EW]
[/m]
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(2) * (5)
Steinburg
35.582
4.179
Pinneberg 96.121
5.253
District
Inventory
(4) / (3)
Inventory/m of Asset value/m Asset vehicles Specific
Specific asset
buildings and
of buildings
asset
settlement
open space
and open
vehicles
space
[/Household]
[/m]
[/m]
[Mio ]
[/m]
[/m]
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
(1)* (7) / (3)
(6) + (8)
(10) / (3)
(9) + (11)
Steinburg
Pinneberg
Table 1: Specific asset value: settlement
18
5.2.3 Stock value for economic landuse types

Stock value considers basic materials or operating supply units for producing goods.
The value is only aggregated for throughout Germany for the time period of one year.
Therefore to take it in account for Schleswig-Holstein the percentage between
inventory and net asset for each landuse type for whole Germany is calculated. By
multiplying the net asset value of each landuse with this factor the inventory then can
be taken into account for the calculation of the specific asset value of economic
landuses.
Landuse types
Total inventory Germany
Net asset Germany
Percentage
1994
1995
of inventory
[Mio ]
[Mio ]
1995
Agriculture
12.650.000
120.065.000
10,54
Industry
150.950.000
500.275.000
30,17
Trade
95.895.000
201.570.000
47,57
Traffic
---
278.085.000
1,00
Table 5-5: Stock value for economic landuses, GERMAN STATISTIC AGENCY
5.2.3.1 Asset values: Economy

For Schleswig-Holstein the net asset value at actual price is available for the sectors:
Agriculture
Industry
Traffic
Public and private service
like shown in Table 5-6.

Sector
2001
1000
Agriculture
6.648.934
Industrie
17.965.601
Traffic
18.255.305
Public and private service
40.611.988
Table 5-6: Net asset value at actual price, economic, Schleswig-Holstein,

STATISTIC AGENCY FR HAMBURG UND SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN
19
To determine the specific net asset [/m], the total area of each sector in the Lnder
Schleswig-Holstein is used. The STATISTIC AGENCY
FR
HAMBURG
UND
SCHLESWIG-
HOLSTEIN publishes the area of real estate divided in special types of landuse (Table
5-7). To achieve the same landuse types which were used for the net asset,
aggregations are necessary and the result is presented exemplary in (Table 5-8).
extract from the "Liegenschaftskataster"

-Liegenschaftsbuch-
annual account 2002
area collection
date: 30/12/2002
district "free" town 01001000

Flensburg
21-100 TO 21-299
page 1
area M1
area M2
BUILDINGS AND OPEN SPACE .................................................
18.641.503
THEREOF
21-130
BUILDINGS; OPEN SPACE AND SETTLEMENT
21-170
BUILDINGS; OPEN SPACE AND INDUSTRY
21-300 TO 21-399
12.320.300
2.402.582
TRADE AND INDUSTRY .......................................................
754.469
THEREOF
21-310
TRADE AREA AND MINING
21-400 TO 21-499
41.751
RECREATION AREA ...............................................................
1.058.992
THEREOF
21-420
GREEN CORRIDOR
21-500 TO 21-599
617.974
TRAFFIC ..................................................................................
6.954.046
THEREOF
21-510
RAODS
21-520
LANE
399.967
21-530
PLACE
155.111
21-600 TO 21-699
4.443.344
AGRICULTURE .........................................................................
16.101.968
THEREOF
21-650
MOOR ANS SWAMP
21-660
HEATHLAND
21-700 TO 21-799
34.915
1.181.200
FOREST ...................................................................................
3.447.258
Table 5-7: Areas of Real estate in Schleswig-Holstein
Area per district [ha], 2002
Schleswig-Holstein
Flensburg
Hansestadt Lbeck
Neumnster Stormarn
Settlement
1.624
3.616
2.115
6.573
83.134
Industry
316
1.042
283
1.357
13.808
Traffic
695
1.709
712
3.727
27.617
Agriculture
1.610
7.354
3.240
52.337
1.180.164
Forest
345
2.973
306
9.977
149.582
Miscellaneous
1.047
4.719
507
2.654
122.004
Table 5-8: Landuse types: Areas for calculating specific asset values
20
5.2.3.2 Calculating of specific asset values

In the following chapters the basic data sets for the calculation of the specific assets
for each landuse are explained and the specific damage can now be determined. The
asset value is the damage potential which can be destroyed by a flood event in the
worst case.
Landuse: Settlement
Specific asset value = 246 /m (Table 5-4 for whole Schleswig-Holstein)
Landuse: Industry and trade

Asset value = 17.965.601.000 (Bau- und Produzierendes Gewerbe)
Area of real estate = 13.808 ha
Specific asset value = 130,11 /m
Specific stock value: 30,2 % => 39,29 /m
Specific asset value = 169,40 /m
The calculation of the specific net asset of the other landuse types is part of exercise
3. To get an impression of the specific asset values for some landuse types Table 5-9
presents the values of two other mesoscale risk analysis.
[/m]
IKSR (averaged), Rhine
IKSE, Elbe
Settlement
279,00
225,00
Industry
333,00
27,00
Traffic
237,00
10,00
Arable
7,00
0,10
Meadows
7,00
0,10
Forest
1,00
0,025
Table 5-9: Specific asset values for main landuse types
5.2.4 Agriculture
Agriculture can be separated in the three sectors: arable land, meadows and forest,
which are very different in there vulnerability according to inundation. Cause of the
general result for the specific asset value in chapter 5.2.3.2 no detailed analysis is
possible. Furthermore includes the net asset value only buildings and inventory and
no farming products for the landuse agriculture. In contrast to this farmers get the
main part of there asset in the fruits and plants.
21
For damage potential analysis these facts should be take in account: As

consequence the asset value for agriculture is determined on the basis of annual
harvest.
5.2.4.1 Arable
Area [ha]
Wheat
[%]
Price [/dt]
Harvest [dt/ha] Output [/ha/a]
179.786
59,49
10,76
91
582,54
Rye
33.094
10,95
9,15
67,7
67,84
Barley
80.504
26,64
9,44
76,1
191,38
8.808
2,91
8,89
57,3
14,85
Oat
856,60
302.192
Table 5-10: Main arable products and the output in Schleswig-Holstein
Averaging the main arable products the asset value is calculated to 856 /ha/a.
5.2.4.2 Meadows
With the adoption that all meadows are intensive used, there are three grass
harvests fixed. Annual asset is calculated to 675 /ha/a, according a crop of 10, 15
and 25 m/ha by an output of 15 /m.
5.2.4.3 Forest
Forest areas are evaluated by statistical estimated values for wood harvest, cause no
real data is published. Averaged asset is set to: 810 /ha/a.
Average land value
deciduous forest
990 /ha/a
mixed forest
810 /ha/a
coniferous forest
630 /ha/a
Table 5-11: asset value, forest
22
Exercise 3
Calculate the specific assets for the main landuse types based on the method of
Regionalisation:
Traffic
Agriculture
Explain the advantage of calculating the specific asset for agriculture on the basis of
the annual harvest!
23
6 Damage Functions
Damage functions are used to represent the relation between inundation depth and
asset value. The economic value of the landuse type must be known to calculate the
damage, this step is already done. The damage function is a function between 0 and
1, with the value of 0 if there is no damage and the value 1, if there is a total loss of
asset. But even in cases of extreme flood there will be no loss of all material assets
found on the surface.
Damage functions are characterised by the following parameters:
First occurrence of damage
Maximum damage value
Shape of the function
There are two types of stage-damage curves, one type is based on actual damage
costs and the other is based on synthetic costs. The synthetic cost stage-damage
curves are mostly used for the prediction of flood costs such as in benefit-cost
analyses. The development of residential synthetic cost stage-damage curves needs
the following steps:
In the area of study, representative classes of houses are selected, usually

based on building size.
A sample of houses is selected in dwelling class. In each room the contents

are checked and the values are noted. Information on the height above floor
level can also be noted or heights can be taken as the same in all dwellings.
Preferably, a qualified quantity surveyor or value should undertake this step.
Values are averaged across each sample for each class of house and the
stage-damage curves are constructed.
The damage function constructed by the synthetic cost method are for potential
damage, not actual damage. A similar approach can be used for constructing actual
cost stage-damage curves soon after a flood.
Damage functions are very difficult comparable for different countries. Although
synthetic stage-damage curves are internationally accepted as the standard
approach to assess damage.
24
6.1.1 Dutch experience in stage-damage curves

For the purpose of project done by Natural Hazard unit, HKV consultants made
stage-damage curves for the land use types. These curves are based on experience
of HKV consultants in assessing damage of the floods of the river Meuse.
It is necessary to introduce curves for each landuse type. A flood in urban area
results in higher damage than a flood in rural area.
damage
0,8
Settlements
Industry
Agriculture
Traffic
0,6
0,4
0,2
0
0
water depth (m)

Figure 6-1: Damage functions of the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water
Management
6.1.2 German experience in stage-damage curves

Systematic collecting of flood damage data in Germany started in 1985, and until now
more of 3.200 objects and damage caused by flood are processed.
With software system HOWAS it is possible to collect flood damage data after
specific use, regional and hydrologic criteria. This data can be arranged and under
indication of certain criteria be selected, linked and finally evaluated. The program
system HOWAS is divided into four parts:
Data input and data correction
Data administration
Data selection and data linkage and
Evaluation
25
The results can be plotted and stored for the subsequent treatment with other
programs. The structure and all functions of HOWAS are strongly dependant on the
kinds of buildings or surfaces.
6.1.3 IKSE, Elbe

Damage functions of ISKE
100
damage factor [%]
80
settlement
industry
60
traffic
green corridor
40
20
0
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
water depth [m]
Figure 6-2: Damage function of IKSE
6.1.4 IKSR, Rhine

Dam age functions of IKSR
100
settlement
industry
damage factor [%]
80
traffic
forest
60
meadow s
40
20
0
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
water depth [m]
Figure 6-3: Damage function of IKSR
26
6.1.5 Evaluation
The river Str is part of the Elbe catchment, therefore in the following potential
damage analysis damage functions of the IKSE are used.
Damage function
IKSR
IKSE
Settlement
Y=6,4x+4,9
Y=-2x+18x
Industry
Y=9,6x+6
Y=-3,3x+24,4x
Traffic
Y=10
Y=2x-8x+13x
Agriculture
Y=50
Y=100
Meadows
Y=50
Y=100
Forestry
Y=1
Y=100
X : Water depth [m] and Y :damage factor [%]
Table 6-1: Comparison of damage function IKSE and IKSR
Damage functions for agriculture should reflect also the new approach for calculating
the asset values, explained in chapter 5.2.4. The damage functions in Table 6-1 are
determined for asset values based on the net asset value at actual price. In the next
chapters the damage potential for arable areas is calculated by a factor which is
independent from water stage and duration time.
6.1.5.1 Arable
Inundation of arable land causes a 100percentage loss of crop.
6.1.5.2 Meadows
A flood event will destroy only one harvest. Therefore an averaged damage asset of
225 /ha will occur (adoption: 15 m/ha and 15 /m), damage factor of 100percent.
6.1.5.3 Forest
During an inundation of forest no damage will occur, if the water depth declines after
some days. An averaged damage factor of 5percent causes then an asset value of
40,5 /ha.
27
Exercise 4
Explain the damage function in Figure 1 for one building in the diagram. The function
is created in a mircoscale damage assessment. Why is there a discontinuity and
what can be the two locations inside the building!
Location:______________
Damage []
Location:______________
Water stage [m]

Figure 1: Microscale approach, Damage function
28
7 Annual damage potential

Cause the occurrence of flood events is a stochastic process, the potential damage
can not be exactly determined. The calculation is based on the available statistical
data and is expressed as annual flood damage potential. Therefore the damage is
weighted by the frequency of returning. The flood damage potential is a function of
flooded area, landuse and water depth. It is summarised in the following formula:
S=
Pmax
S(P) dP
Po
S=
max S
i1 + S i
i=1
Pi
Eq. 1
Annual damage potential [/a],
S(P)
Damage S [] per flood event as a function of flood probability [1/a]
Flood probability of a flood event [1/a]
Po
Flood probability of the critical flood event starting from this event, damage occur [1/a]
Pmax
Flood probability of the highest flood event [1/a]
Pi = Pi +1 Pi
i
Return period
S []
600000
500000
500000
400000
Pi Si-12+Si
300000
200000
100000
0,2
0,1
0,02 0,01
P [1/a]
Figure 7-1: Annual damage potential, withP0=0,2
29
For solving equation 1, it is necessary to calculate the potential damages for flood
events of different estimated probabilities. As input data, water depths for each flood
event are required. By using the damage functions, damage potential can be
estimated. Total damage potential is the result of integration of all damage potential
values, assuming linear function of damage occurrence. Applying this method a
combination of flood probability and monetary damage assessment is possible.
Finally, the flood risk can be estimated based on annual flood damage potential.
30
Exercise 5
During the flood event 2002 the city of Dresden was affected by a heavy inundation
and enormous damages were the consequence. Calculate the annual damage
potential based on the determined damages for several statistical return periods
shown in Table 1!
Water depth [m]
Figure 1: Calculated Inundation area and water depth for flood event 17.08.2002, Dresden
Ti [a] Pi [1/a] Pi [1/a] Discharge Water stage gauging

[m/s]
S(Pi)[Mio.] i [Mio.] i * Pi
station Dresden [mNN]
i * Pi
[Mio./a] [Mio./a]
10
2630
110,27
6,40
20
3130
110,84
51,73
25
3355
111,08
54,06
50
3820
111,51
68,45
100
4370
111,97
74,70
Table1: Specific annual damage, Dresden
31
8 Method for damage assessment

In the following chapter, a method for damage assessment and mapping by using a
Geographic Information System like ArcView is explained.
8.1
Survey Data
Presently, there are two types of survey data available in Germany: The Automated
Real Estate Map (ALK, scale 1:1000) and the Authoritative Topographic and
Cartographic Information System (ATKIS) with the Digital Landscape Model (DLM,
scale 1:5000). These data are available for most of the countries and represent the
basis for urban and landscape planning. Figure 8-1 shows the relationship between
the two types of survey data and their use.
For the requisite of this project from the FEDERAL AGENCY
FOR
CARTOGRAPHY
AND
GEODESY AND THE STATE SURVEY OFFICES, ATKIS and ALK data are obtained for the
project area of Kellinghusen.
Figure 8-1: Survey Data, ALK and ATKIS
The Automated Real Estate Map includes digital data of the Real Estate Cadastre
like individual parcels with their boundaries, buildings, results of soil classification and
the current use of landscape. The map is scaled in 1:1000 and is parcel related. The
respective parcels are identified by an individual parcel identification number. It is
based on the land parcel, which location data is stored in ALK, both landuse type and
ownership are stored in ALB.
32
ATKIS is a project of the AdV (WORKING COMMITTEE

OF THE
STATES
OF THE
FEDERAL REPUBLIC
OF
OF THE
SURVEYING AUTHORITIES
GERMANY) which is performed at the
federal level. This project aims at the provision of digital models of the earth 's
surface suitable for data processing. In this way ATKIS constitutes a data base for
computer-assisted digital processing and analogue output forms, but also a base of
spatial. It can therefore be described as a geobased information system.
In a first step different types of landuse like separated in the ALK are mereged in nine
groups (Table 8-1) which represent the landuse types and the calculated specific
asset values done in chapter 5.
Figure 8-2: Landuse types ALK, Kellinghusen
Figure 8-3: Merged landuse types, Kellinghusen
33
landuse
Settlement
Industry
Traffic
Arable
Meadows
Forest
Water
object type from ALKlayer 21
object specification as per ALK
1000
to
1490
and
2100
to
2990
buildings and open space
1700
to
1790
and
3000
to
3620
5000
to
5940
buildings and open space - trade and industry
6000
to
6140
6320
6400
and
6700
to
6800
6200
to
6310
7000
to
7600
8000
to
8900
agriculture
other buildings for treading and service

buildings and open space - mixed use with settlement
other open spaces
other buildings for trade and industry

factorys
closedowns
traffic
traffic area next to waterway
asparagus
tree nursery
wine garden
fruit-growing
agricultural traffic area
green corridor (in general)
garden
forest
forestry traffic area
ponds
Nature
residual objects
according to definitions
water areas
areas which don't include asset values and which won't be
refurbished after a flooding event
Infrastructure (is similar

displayed as traffic)
residual objects
according to definitions
public areas which must be refurbished after a flooding event.

The damge is calculated similar to the traffic areas
Table 8-1: Merged landuse groups
34
8.2
Program Run
Hydrology
Economy
Water stages -probability,
Asset in dependence of land
longitudinal profiles
Inundation maps for flood

event of specific return period
use
Stage damage
functions
Specific asset value:

Regionalisation
Specific damage for each

inundation scenario
Classification of affected flood

plain
Annual Damage Potential

(total/specific)
Figure 8-4: Program run
Applying a Geographic Information System, it is possible to combine all necessary

data for determination of damage potential in one system:
Inundation areas with water depth
Landuse distribution
Specific asset values
Damage functions
In Figure 8-4 calculation of damage potential is visualised. The key idea of the
method is the conversion of all relevant information in raster data (Figure 8-5).
35
Figure 8-5: Calculation of specific damage potential using raster data
For the program run following equation can be considered:

Ln
Ln
DiLn
, j = Ci , j V
Eq. 2
Di , j
Specific damage potential value i,j (/m)
C iLn
, j = f ( hi , j )
Damage factor of damage function for each landuse type [%]
hi , j
Water depth i,j [m]
Ln
Specific asset value [/m] for each landuse type Ln
damage Assessment results in a raster in which for each cell the specific damage in
/m is calculated. Summarising these values and multiply with the affected area the
total damage for a flood event can be determined. Annual damage [/m/a] can be
evaluated in a next step also for each cell of the raster.
36
8.3
Microscale damage assessment for Kellinghusen
In February 2002 Kellinghusen was affected by inundation of a 30year flood event.

Wide areas are flooded and by doing a mircoscale damage assessment a sum of
360.000 damage was determined. 88 buildings in 27 streets were inundated and
their owners were interviewed about damage. 7 trades lost money by stopping their
sale or production. 89 % of damage was located at building structure only 11 % was
destroyed stock. People were aware of flooding and prepared their buildings
therefore with flood protection measures. Furthermore basements were used only as
store or garage.
For comparing this mircocale damage assessment with the mesoscale approach in
chapter 8.4 annual damage is used. Based on research for prices to rebuild affected
building structures and new stock, damage potential for the known objects, could be
calculated for different water stages and inundation areas.
Problems occur if more objects were affected then located during mircoscale
approach, taken in account flood events with rare return periods. With these
adoptions damage potential was calculated for:
HQ1:
750.000
HQ10: 1.300.000
By weighting statistically an annual damage of 925.000 like explained in Table 8-2
was calculated.
Table 8-2: Annual damage, Kellinghusen
37
8.4
Mesoscale damage assessment for Kellinghusen
Like mentioned in chapter 8.2 as input data to determine damage inundation areas
with water depths must be available. Therefore first a 2d-hydraulic modelling is done
for six flood events with the return periods of: 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years.
Hydraulic boundary conditions are upstream discharges of the rivers Str at Rensing
and Bramau and downstream water stages at the village Grnhude (Figure 8-6).
QRensing
WGrnhud
QBramau
Figure 8-6: Boundary conditions, 2d-hydraulic Kellinghusen
Table 8-3: Boundary Conditions
The mesoscale damage assessemt using the specific asset values of Table 8-4 and
the damage functions of Figure 8-7 evaluates an annual damage of 430.000 . In
Figure 8-8 is the spatial distribution of specific annual damage for the city of Kellinghusen pictured.
38
Landuse types
Specific asset[/m]
Settlement
246,00 total Schleswig-Holstein
Industry
169,40
Traffic
66,76
Arable
0,086
Meadows
0,023
Forerst
0,081
Table 8-4: Landuse types: Specific asset
Figure 8-7: Landuse types: damage functions
In Table 8-5 separated for each landuse type the damage potentials of flood events
HQ10 and HQ100 are summarised.
Table 8-5: Damage of flood event HQ10 and HQ100 for Kellinghusen
39
Legend
Specific annual damage [/m/a]
Figure 8-8: Specific annual damage, Kellingusen
40
Exercise 6
Explain the differences between both approaches and reason the varieties on the
basis of HQ10.
41
Exercise 7
Calculate the annual damage potential for Kellinghusen, using the software KALYPSO:
FLOODRISKANALYSIS! Program Run:
1. Merging of landuse types
At first the different types of landuse like separated in the ALK (chapter 8.1
und exercise 1) are to be merged in nine groups (Table 8-1) which represent
the landuse types and the calculated specific asset values done in chapter 5.
Be aware of case sensitive landuse names. Open existing ArcView project of
Exercise 1 and use for aggregation in ArcView the tool Field Calculator.
Create a new field in the attribute table of existing shape file Kellinghusen.shp:
landuse_eng.
2. FLOODRISKANALYSIS
Start Program FLOODRISKANALYSIS by execute the file Exercise_7 \FloodRiskAnalysis\FloodRiskAnalysis.bat and open the project folder Kelling-River-Risk.
Log View opens and the mapping between landuse types, asset values and
damage functions is visualised (Figure 1). To be able to change these

boundary conditions open the file Exercise_7\Kelling-RiverRisk\Control\
ContextModell.gml. Using XML the context information for calculating damage
potential and risk zones are stored in a XML-Shema file.
XML Introduction:
XML stands for EXtensible Markup Language
XML is a markup language much like HTML
XML was designed to describe data
XML tags are not predefined. You must define your own tags
XML uses a Document Type Definition (DTD) or an

XML Schema to describe the data
XML is a W3C Recommendation
42
Figure 1: Log View FLOODRISKANALYSIS, Open Project
3. Inundation areas
In the folder Exercise_7\Kelling-River-Risk\waterlevel inundation areas of six

design flood events with the return period of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years are
stored. These areas are the results of a 2d-hydraulic flow simulation with the
finite-element-net and boundary conditions like mentioned in chapter 8.4. Next
step in program run converts the inundation areas from ASCII raster format
.asc to .gml raster format.
The Geography Markup Language (GML) utilises XML to express geographical features. It can serve as a modelling language for geographic systems
as well as an open interchange format for geographic data.
Figure 1: Finite-Element-Net, Knots, Bankline and Inundation Area (Raster .asc)
43
Results of 2d-hydraulic modelling are: water depth as one information for each
knot of the finite-element-net and the bankline. By using also mesh of finiteelement-net as breaklines these inundation areas are rasterized to .asc format
(Figure 2).
File name for each inundation area is fixed by allocating return period;
wsp_hq100. Start converting waterlevel by menu item Covert\Waterlevel.
Figure 2: Log View, FLOODRISKANALYSIS, Convert Waterlevel
4. Landuse
Next step in program run is to rasterize the landuse shape-file to a .gml raster
format equal to inundation area. Reducing disc space biggest inundation is
chosen by system to define landuse shapes, which are affected by flood. Only
these areas are necessary to be rasterized for damage assessment.
Figure 3: Rasterizing of landuse shape-file

44
Before starting rasterizing, copy shape file with merged landuse types (Part 1
of this exercise) to folder Exercise_7\Kelling-River-Risk\landuse and rename it
to landuse.shp. In Popup menu choose landuse_eng for property name. In
Log View process of conversation is presented. Visualize result landuse.asc
file in ArcView like explained in exercise 1, but cell values should be converted
to integer for allocating corresponding landuse types!
5. Damage assessment
At first choose menu item Calculate damage to calculate specific damage for
each design flood event. After this choose menu item Calculate annual
damage to calculate specific annual damage. Results are stored in folder
Exercise_7\Kelling-River-Risk\damage in .asc and .gml format.
Figure 4: Damage assessment
Open menu item Statistic View (Figure 5) and determine the damage potential
for flood event HQ10 and HQ100! No template GRID should be used, this
function is necessary for determination of the thresholds for risk classes.
This damage potential covers only the floodplain, cause finite-element-net is
not created for city part of Kellinghusen. But in this area high damage potential
is located. Therefore a second project Exercise_7\Kelling-Town-Risk is set up,
by determine waterlevels in city parts of Kellinghusen.
45
Figure 5: Statistic View
Open this project and execute damage assessment! Determine in same way
damage potential for flood event HQ10 and HQ100! Calculate total damage
potential for Kellinghusen for each landuse type and in general, like shown in
Table 1! Explain the results of the damage assessment and compare both
flood scenarios!
HQ10
Landuse
Flood
Plain
Town
HQ100
Total
Flood
Town
Total
Plain
Settlement
Industry
Traffic
Arable
Meadows
Forest
Table 1: Damage potential, Kellinghusen
Visualize the annual specific damage for Kellinghusen on flood plain and city
areas in the existing ArcView project! Create a legend with equal intervals and
visualize result in a new layout! Use the extension Legend tool!
46
9 Risk Assessment and Mapping

By mapping only water depth and inundation area, no decision support for flood
resilience related planning is prepared. Risk maps, resulting from the explained
method include the consequences of flood events in monetary values in combination
with the return period as weighting factor and offer in this way decision makers a
basis for sustainable planning.
Distinguish between two different user groups for publishing risk maps:
Water related engineers or administrative working people
Inhabitants who are affected by flood
When risk maps are presented in public, a clear plain risk zoning is necessary. High
consternation will occur in areas with high damage potential, which are located near
by the river.
9.1
Risk classification
Risk is defined as the combination both the consequence and the return period of
flood events. Like explained in chapter 8.2 the specific annual damage for each cell
of the raster can be calculated. This value is used for zoning the risk in the three
different parts:
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
To determine the thresholds, a zoning system of German insurance companies is
used. The zones are defined based on hazard, expressed in terms of probability.
Both components are considered when defining risk zones (Figure 9-1).
Zone
Risk zone
Return period
LOW
Areas will be flood rarely then HQ50
II
MEDIUM
Areas will be flood rarely HQ10 then and more often then HQ50
III
HIGH
Areas will be flood more often then HQ10
Table 9-1: Zoning system of insurance companies in Germany

47
High Risk
Medium
Low Risk
Risk
p = 0,08
p = 0,01
Figure 9-1: Hazard zones of German insurance companies
The calculation of thresholds is different for urban and rural areas cause of the
varieties in damage potential.
9.1.1 Thresholds, urban areas
To calculate the thresholds a geographic analysis is necessary in which the highest

summands of the specific annual damage, like explained in equation 1 in chapter 7,
are determined. To fulfil the adoption in Figure 9-1 when searching for the maximum
of each summand, only inundation areas like defined in Table 9-1 can be taken in
account. Otherwise wrong thresholds would be fixed.
Risk Zones, urban areas
Threshold: low/medium risk (Gl/m)

Gl/m = max{P=0,01}
Threshold: medium/high risk (Gm/h)
Gm/h = Gl/m + max{P}
In Table 9-2 the results of a threshold determination for three rivers in the catchment
area of the river Str are listed.
Threshold
Str
Schwale, upstrem
Schwale, donstrem Ohlau
Gl/m
0,05
0,07
0,03
0,16
Gm/h
0,29
0,51
0,3
0,45
Table 9-2: Thresholds, calculated in the river Str catchment

48
For risk assessment and mapping unique thresholds for the whole catchment area
are proposed, to compare risk maps of different rivers within the total catchment:
Threshold: low/medium risk (Gl/m)
Gl/m = 0,1 /m/a
Threshold: medium/high risk (Gm/h)
Gm/h = 1,0 /m/a
9.1.2 Thresholds, rural areas
In contrast to urban areas in these areas no high risk should occur cause agricultural
use is the most suitable kind of anthropogenic landuse in flood affected areas.
Therefore the adoption is made, that meadows which are flooded ones in two years
will be allotted to the class low risk:
p * specific asset = 0,49 * 0,023 = 0,012 [/ma]
p = 0,01 0,5 = 0,49, Pmax = 0,01
49
Exercise 8
What does the thresholds of 0,1 /m/a and 1,0 /m/a for urban areas mean to an
affected inhabitant with a parcel of 1000 m and what do you think about this kind of
classification!
Calculate based on chapter 9.1.2 which risk zones for different rural landuse types
are possible:
Arable
Meadows
Forest
50
9.2
Risk mapping
To present flood risk in a map the following legend is proposed:
Moderate consternation, urban area
Medium consternation, urban area
High consternation, urban area
Moderate consternation, rural area
Medium consternation, urban area
The new terminology of consternation is chosen to associate the exigency to change

the situation for affected people. In a next step authorities can connect these zones
witch options to advance flood protection for buildings or show examples to change
landuse in agriculture areas. The colour of the legend is ajar to a traffic light. But in
contrast to the known signs the risk map colour for a moderate risk is not displayed
green but yellow, cause these areas are still inside the inundation area. Rural areas
have a complete different colour to differ these landuse types clear from urban parts.
Figure 9-2: Risk map Kellinghusen
51
Exercise 9
Generate a risk map for Kellinghusen, using the software KALYPSO: FLOODRISK
ANALYSIS! Program Run:
1. Thresholds, Context information
Open file Exercise_7\Kelling-Town-Risk\Control\RiskContextModell.gml. In this

file you are able to change risk zone thresholds.
2. Thresholds, Calculation
First step: calculate threshold between moderate and medium consternation,

urban area. Create a new folder border in project folder Kelling-Town-Risk!
Open project Kelling-Town-Risk and choose Tools/ Subtract Grids. To fulfil the
adoption in Figure 9-1 of chapter 9.1 when searching for the maximum of each
summand of the specific annual damage value, otherwise wrong thresholds
would be fixed. In the end only inundation areas like defined in Table 9-1 can
be taken in account.
Therefore by using the tool Subtract Grids the corresponding areas can be
calculated based on the waterlevel grids for each return period, like shown in
Figure 1. The target raster should be saved in the folder border.
Figure 1: Subtract Grids
Statistic View uses this target file to border the searched area for maximal
value for each summand of the specific annual damage (Figure 2). During the
damage calculation, for each summand a separate raster is calculated named
e.g. tempGrid_deltaP0.01.asc by the corresponding p. Based on this
adoptions the threshold between moderate and medium consternation, urban
areas results to: 0,0283 /m/a.
52
Figure 2: Calculation of thresholds
53
3. Calculate the thresholds for the other two risk classes! Be aware of the
definition of the annual specific asset (Figure 3). Between the inundation areas
of HQ2 and HQ5 are no differences. Therefore no subtraction is necessary.
S []
max
S =
i =1
S i 1 + S i
Pi
2
tempGriddeltaP0.1.asc
0,2
tempGriddeltaP0.08.asc
0,1
0,02
P [1/a]
Figure 3: Annual specific damage
4. Copy the file RiskContextModell and rename it as RiskContextModell-01-1.

Choose menu item Calculate/ Flood Risk to generate a risk raster! But first,
change the thresholds in the XML shema, cause there are the unique ones
fixed! Thresholds for rural areas are defined like explained in chapter 9.1.2.
Take care of renaming the calculated raster data other wise the program will
overwrite the results.

Visualize the risk raster in the existing ArcView project! Create a legend with
the classes like mentioned in chapter 9.2 and present the result in a new
layout like a risk map!
5. Create a second risk map with the unique thresholds 0,1 and 1,0 /m/a and
view it in the same layout as before in step 4! Compare the results!
6. Create a complete risk map for Kellinghusen on the flood plains and city
areas with these general values in a new layout!
54
Exercise 10
Write a report of your work during this course and present your calculated results in a
presentation!
55

1RiskAssessment Theory

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SummerSchool 2005

Herceg Novi, 3th- 11th Sep 2005

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Erik Pasche

Flood Risk .......................................................................................................... 3

Risk Management ........................................................................................ 4

Problem of uncertainty ................................................................................. 8

Parameters for risk mapping ........................................................................ 8

Scale for analyse ............................................................................................... 9

Microscale approach .................................................................................... 9

Mesoscale und macroscale approach .......................................................... 9

Project Area ..................................................................................................... 11

Rivers and streams .................................................................................... 11

Groundwater flooding ................................................................................. 12

Flooding from overland flow ....................................................................... 12

Blocked or overloaded drainage systems................................................... 12

Kellinghusen, flood situation....................................................................... 12

Herceg Novi, September 2005, TUHH - River and Coastal Engineering

Methodology for damage potential assessment .......................................... 14

Statistical-economical assessment of asset value...................................... 14

Net Asset Value at purchase price ...................................................... 14

Net Asset Value at actual price ........................................................... 14

The method of Regionalisation................................................................... 15

Asset value: Settlement ...................................................................... 16

Inventory (residence contents)..................................................... 16

Motor vehicles asset .................................................................... 16

Calculation of specific asset value ............................................... 17

Asset values: Economy................................................................ 19

Calculating of specific asset values ............................................. 21

Stock value for economic landuse types ............................................. 19

Damage Functions .......................................................................................... 24

Dutch experience in stage-damage curves ......................................... 25

German experience in stage-damage curves...................................... 25

IKSR, Rhine ........................................................................................ 26

Annual damage potential................................................................................ 29

Method for damage assessment .................................................................... 32

Survey Data ............................................................................................... 32

Program Run .............................................................................................. 35

Microscale damage assessment for Kellinghusen ..................................... 37

Mesoscale damage assessment for Kellinghusen ..................................... 38

Risk Assessment and Mapping...................................................................... 47

Risk classification ....................................................................................... 47

Thresholds, urban areas ..................................................................... 48

Thresholds, rural areas ....................................................................... 49

Risk mapping ............................................................................................. 51

Herceg Novi, September 2005, TUHH - River and Coastal Engineering

Statistic Agency fr Hamburg und Schleswig-Holstein ...................................... 16

STATISTIC AGENCY FR HAMBURG UND SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN ............................... 17

Herceg Novi, September 2005, TUHH - River and Coastal Engineering

Figure 1-1: Dresden Flood, August 2002

Increase in potential damage:

Increase in number of extreme flood events:

Herceg Novi, September 2005, TUHH - River and Coastal Engineering

Damage potential assessment is obtained as a result of a risk analysis, which is

Herceg Novi, September 2005, TUHH - River and Coastal Engineering

Figure 2-1: Hazard-Risk-Vulnerability

It is important to notice that the technical vulnerability is possible to quantify in

undesirable. Generally, however, the flood and coastal defence community is

Figure 2-2: Multi-dimensions of risk

Herceg Novi, September 2005, TUHH - River and Coastal Engineering

Figure 2-3: Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence

Herceg Novi, September 2005, TUHH - River and Coastal Engineering

Herceg Novi, September 2005, TUHH - River and Coastal Engineering

In flood defence there is often considerable difficulty in determining the probability

2.10 Parameters for risk mapping