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November 5, 2012

Iran and Sudan

As South Sudan restarts its oil produc on, the recent bombing in Khartoum and the Iranian response intensify specula on regarding military strikes on producing countries as well as the poten al for a strike on an Iranian
nuclear facility.
Not for the first me, a suspected armaments factory has been bombed in Khartoum, Sudan. This me, however, the
worry was not about the Sudanese governments es to either Iraq or Al Qaeda, but rather its strategic links to the government of Iran. In August 1998, the United States used cruise missiles to strike the Al-Shifa pharmaceu cal factory in Khartoum
that it suspected of being involved in the produc on of chemical weapons. This a ack took place shortly a er Al Qaeda had
bombed two U.S. embassies in East Africa, and Washington believed that the Al-Shifa factorys clandes ne work had mes to
Osama bin Laden, who used to live in Sudan and have close rela ons with the Na onal Islamic Front. In the wake of the
a ack, there was significant controversy over whether the pharmaceu cal factory was either involved in chemical weapons
produc on or indeed had any mes to Al Qaeda. Ques ons remain to this day about the target and the results of the a ack.
This me around, the suspected a ack in Khartoum has just as many, if not more ques ons surrounding it. The Sudanese
government accused Israel of conduc ng a bombing a ack using fighter-bombers on Wednesday, October 24. The target
was an armaments factory in the Yarmouk industrial complex in Khartoum, and the Sudanese government reported that four
people were killed in the a ack. The Israeli government has remained silent on whether it did carry out the strike, but it has
accused the government in Khartoum of allowing its territory to be used by Iran to smuggle arms to Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
Some press reports speculated that the factory was jointly run by Iran and Sudan although it was unclear whether the armaments it produced were meant for Iran, Sudan, or to be transferred to groups figh ng Israel.
Again, press reports speculate that the a ack had a dual purpose. The first was to destroy a weapons facility that was
supplying groups hos le to Israel and possibly an imminent shipment of par cularly deadly weapons to an -Israeli groups.
The second was to send a message to Iran that Israel was capable of a long-range air strike. The distance from Israel to Khartoum is as far or farther than the distance that Israeli fighters would have to travel to strike nuclear-related targets in Iran.
The a ack, if indeed it was Israel, does show some capability, but the target set and circumstances of an Israeli a ack on Iranian nuclear facili es would be much dierent. Sudan has no air defenses at all. Iran has a rela vely sophis cated system. The
flight path from Israel to Sudan likely was mostly over ocean (the Red Sea) reducing the chance that other states would detect
or a empt to intercept a flight of fighters. The flight path from Israel to Iran would pass over a number of states. The Sudan
a ack was on a single, unhardened above-ground facility. An a ack on Irans nuclear infrastructure would require destroying
numerous, geographically dispersed, hardened, and o en underground facili es.
While both Sudan and Iran have denied any connec on with supplying weapons to an -Israeli groups via Sudan, the government of Tehran did this week divert its two navy ships that were carrying out an -piracy patrols o the coast of Somalia to
a port visit in Sudan. While informa on is likely to remain par al and unclear, it does make sense for Iran to be expanding its
rela onship with Sudan to increase its eorts to smuggle weapons to Hamas, Islamic Jihad and others. It is par cularly true
now that Irans closest ally near Israel Syria is in a civil war and is a less reliable route for arms and money to an -Israeli
groups. Similarly, as Israeli ocials con nue to talk about the possibility of striking Iran, it makes sense for Iran to seek new or
expanded routes to con nue to threaten Israel in return. The Sudanese government has a history of working with states and
non-state groups who have been shunned by the community of na ons whether it is Iraq under Saddam Hussein or Al Qaeda.
A single strike by Israel is unlikely to end this coopera on even if it was a tac cal success. Israel is suspected of striking a
convoy in Sudan carrying weapons from Iran to an -Israeli groups in 2009. This event, and reac ons such as the ship visit,
should be viewed in the broader context of Israeli-Iranian strategic enmity. Each is looking for advantages and avenues for
influence and is unlikely to stop any me soon.

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