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59 alleles in the consensus profile, being present in at least two of three amplifications. Out of
the 45 individual loci, 14 loci showed one drop-in allele. An additional 13 loci showed two or
more drop-in alleles. The FST drop-in rate predicts approximately 2 loci with one drop-in. FST
expects no loci with drop-in of two or more alleles. Thus, the JB mixture had 10 times more
foreign and stutter alleles than the FST program predicts.
Analysis of the JB mixture showed that drop-in affects LR in the same way that has been
demonstrated for drop-out. Drop-in caused a strong false positive LR, which was higher than
the LR for the known minor contributors.
Although the FST does not provide LRs for alternative suspects, our Excel spreadsheets showed
the LRs of all possible genotypes, showing the effect of drop-in in the JB mixture upon all
possible profiles. Drop-in created a highest-ranking false positive profile, with an LR of 10e15.
Locus by locus analysis of the mixture is not provided by FST. Our Excel calculations showed
that at many loci, drop-in caused the highest LR. Examining allele frequencies at loci with 5 or 6
alleles in the mixture, along with the calculation of the percentage of DNA profiles giving LR
greater than 1, showed that a locus with too many alleles can lose its probative value, yet still
provide high LR solely conditioned on the genotype of the comparison sample.
Over 20 percent of the alleles in the consensus profile were drop-in alleles, calling into question
the use of consensus profiles and multiple replication, since this approach does not eliminate all
spurious alleles, and creates opportunities for single drop-ins that weaken the statistical analysis.
The values we obtained using our Excel FST program were close to the values obtained by FST
but not exact. We would be happy to review our calculations with OCME to directly compare to
the FST.
Given the poor description of the actual touch DNA mixture, the unreliable FST results are not
surprising. Artificially lowering the drop-in rate exaggerates the strength of the evidence by
inflating confidence that any allele is not an artifact. In casework samples, it is not possible to
distinguish drop-in alleles from alleles coming from a contributor. Our analysis shows the need
for better ways to account for and control drop-in when evaluating low-template and touch DNA
mixtures.
1. Mitchell, et. al., (2012) FSI Genetics 6, pp 749-761.
2. Gill, et. al., (2014) FSI Genetics 13, pp 167-175.
3. Butler, J. (2010) Fundamentals of Forensic DNA Typing, page 440, Appendix 1.