Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Research Analyst
Jonathan Chang
Queens School of Business, 2017
j.chang@queensu.ca
+1.613.809.0329
Table of Contents
I.
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 3
II.
COMPANY OVERVIEW 8
III.
INVESTMENT THESIS.. 14
IV.
CATALYSTS/RISKS..... 15
V.
VALUATION.. 20
VI.
RECOMMENDATIONS/SUMMARY... 25
VII.
APPENDIX...... 26
May 2015
Industry Overview
Transaction Processing for the Developing World
In developing regions, individuals have less access to banking services due to insufficient infrastructure and
lack of structure within their given geographical regions. Contrary to developed countries, it is difficult to find
transparency in anything from corporate governance to macroeconomic data points. As a result, banking
services are very uncommon in developing regions such as Africa or Asia. As a scarce resource, banking fees
become extremely expensive hence rendering them useless for their potential low-income users. Families
cannot afford deposit/withdrawal and account fees.
When workers receive their wages, they are often paid in cash. Similarly, welfare, transfers, or loans are all
done surprisingly in cash. There are no secure methodologies for workers to protect their cash in the event of
a robbery. In such manner, governments and employers must harbor the expense of obtaining, moving, and
protecting cash.
Access to affordable financial services is linked to overcoming poverty, reducing income disparities, and
increasing economic growth. There is a largely untapped market despite growing needs. A solution would be
incredibility beneficial in generating both economic and social welfare.
2.5 billion adults around the world, or 50% of the world population, do not have bank accounts or
access to financial services.
Source: Company Website, World Bank
May 2015
Industry Overview
The Under-Banked or Unbanked
By leveraging their smart card and mobile technologies, UEPS is able to provide financial services
such as loans and insurance products to these consumers and alleviate some of the challenges they
face in dealing with the informal sector.
May 2015
Industry Trends
Global Mobile Transaction Value ($ Billions)
$1,476
$1,077
$691
$120
2012
$223
2013
$393
2014
2015
2016
2017
1.75
1.13
2012
2.03
2.28
2.5
1.43
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
556
146
2013
278
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
May 2015
Industry Trends
8/10 Countries w/ Highest Use of Mobile
Financial Services in Africa
May 2015
Mobile Payments
Despite lack of financial services, large proportions of
under-banked customers use mobile phones. In fact,
the World Bank states that there is a rising popularity
of mobile phones being used to transfer money.
Furthermore, mobile banking expanded to 16% of
market in Sub-Saharan Africa. As the UEPS solution is
enabled to run on the SIM cards in mobile phones,
users are easily provided with secure payment and
banking functionality.
Healthcare
May 2015
Company Overview
Business Segmentation
International
TransactionBased
Activities
25%
Geographical Segmentation
Transaction
Based
Activities
42%
Korea
25%
Financial
Services
33%
International
1%
South Africa
74%
Sales: act as supplier selling products (ex. Sale of UEPS to Ghana Central Bank).
Servicing: own and operate UEPS themselves and charge one-time and on-going fees for use of system (ex. South
Africa pension/wage distribution).
Loans and Insurance short-term loans for smart-card holders and providing insurance as financial services.
Card Transaction Fees: throughout KSNET (220,000 merchants), XeoHealth, VCPay systems.
Partnerships: introducing UEPS and VTU in new markets such as Namibia and Colombia where equity position is
taken and licensing is given.
In their income statement, UEPS categories revenue streams in four categories: South Africa Transaction Processing,
International Transaction Processing, Financial inclusion and Applied Technologies, and Corporate (loss in revenue so far).
This flexible approach enables UEPS to drive adoption while capturing value through technology
implementation.
Source: Company Website, Investor Presentation, Thomson One
Analytics
May 2015
Company Overview
Financial Metrics
Market
Capitalization
EV / Revenue
$631.5
EV / EBITDA
1.14
$2.10
0.9 x
$16
3.0 x
$652.5
111.0
+ Total Debt
60.0
+ Pref. Equity
Series of
Sept Insider
Sales
$14
0.3 x
Capitalization Table
Announced looking
for acquisition w/
large cash stock
2.6 x
Debt / EBITDA
$17
$15
P / TBV
Market Capitalization
$18
6.5 x
$14.90 /
10.09
Beta 5Y
EPS
P/E
$13
$12
1
$11
Earnings Call
Followed by
AGM
$10
$9
0.3
$601.9
$8
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Volume
Source: Capital IQ as of May 18, 2015 except May
19 Share Price
Feb-15
Price
May 2015
Volume (millions)
52 wk
High/Low
$14.43
May 19 Share
Price
Company Overview
Net1 Universal Electronic Payment System (UEPS)
UEPS is a leading provider of alternate payment systems in emerging, cash-based economies with significant
unbanked populations. It is a leader in transaction processing in South Africa, Korea, and Ghana by incorporating
smart-card processing technology.
Users of the system can conduct transactions in remote areas as long as a portable smart card reader is available.
Due to the flexibility of the offline systems, there is a high level of availability and affordability. In South Africa,
UEPS currently distributes pension and welfare payments to over 9m recipients through its SASSA agreement.
UEPSs XeoHealth subsidiary provides healthcare funders/providers in the US with an on-line real-time
management system for healthcare transactions.
UEPS has established foot holes in countries all over the world. The map below helps to depict their global reach.
May 2015
10
Company Overview
Absolute Return Relative to SA and the US
40%
UEPS
S&P 500
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
May-2014
Jul-2014
Sep-2014
Nov-2014
Jan-2015
Mar-2015
India/UK Expansion w/
Shmart!Pay/Zazoo
July 1, 2011
January 1, 2010
May 2015
11
Company Overview
Senior Management Team
Dr. Serge C. P. Belamant (61)
Chairman, Chief Executive Officer
GM - Cryptographic Solutions
MD at Fihrst
12
III: Strong Cash Flows, Low Debt, High Margins, and Healthy Financial Statements
UEPSs financial statements indicate very
healthy figures. Debt is 11.5% of capitalization.
The company has more cash & equivalents to
offset debt (in fact, it has negative net debt). In
terms of historical performance, it has had
consistent growth in historical and estimated
UFCF. Furthermore, it has positive net income
as far as 1999 and recovering EBIT margin
from 2013 fall investments.
2012 13
56.8
56.9
Corruption
Allegations
UEPS UFCF
43.5
49.1
55.2
59.8
65.6
26.8
2.1
2010
2011
-31.4
2012
2013
2014 | 2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
May 2015
2019E
13
Investment Thesis I
I: Largely Untapped Markets Available for Astonishing Growth
Mobile Payment's Share of Global
Payment Transactions
20.0%
19.0%
18.0%
17.0%
16.0%
15.0%
14.0%
13.0%
12.0%
11.0%
10.0%
12-Dec
13-Mar
13-Jun
13-Sep
13-Dec
Organic Growth Opportunities in Asia and Africa vs. Payment Processing in North America or Europe
Saturated Markets
Ex. North America,
Europe
Increasing customers
means stealing
customers from
competitors. Industries
like these are based on
marketing and service
differentiation and
stagnant revenue
drivers.
Unsaturated
Markets
Ex. Africa, Asia
Acquired customers will
be organic who have
never used the service.
Growth in all drivers
provides opportunity to
access customers with
no prior banking service
experience before.
Source: Etoro, Desinationz, Znet, Visa, Company Website
May 2015
14
Investment Thesis II
II: Added Flexibility from Removed SASSA Contract
Negative Side of SASSA Contract
Price / LTM Normalized EPS
11.0 x
9.0 x
7.0 x
5.0 x
14- 14-Jun 14-Jul 14- 14-Sep 14- 14- 14- 15-Jan 15-Feb 15- 15May
Aug
Oct Nov Dec
Mar Apr
May 2015
15
Investment Thesis II
II: Added Flexibility from Removed SASSA Contract
Unlikely Transfer of SASSA Contract
If you're the South African government, and right now, you're
providing benefits for 10 million people in which globally has
been acknowledged to be one of the most efficient platforms,
saving them lots of money and everything is good. And all of a
sudden, you're now faced with the possibility of you walking
away and Company B coming in and they have no idea they
have tremendous switching cost for us in a country that's not
exactly politically stable. Can't they be all of a sudden getting
very scared and they say to themselves, "You know what? We
can't afford to have with all other problems yet one walking
away. Maybe, we just won't award that contract and to actually
ask that one to stay with its current terms.
16
In the past, UEPS has remained at depressed levels because of its reliance on the SASSA contract. Although the
contract with the South African government was vital in developing itself earlier, what investors are now
misinterpreting is its capability to operate without the contract. Coupled with the fact that the SASSA contract would
end in 2017, UEPSs valuation to date has reflected limited growth and a heavy reliance on the South African
government. An author on Seeking Alpha, Alpha Gen Capital posted in October 29 a title of a PRO article detailing
that Net 1 UEPS Technologies: SASSA Contract Likely To Be Re-Awarded Boosting Shares. Utilizing this
interpretation and the large drop in UEPS share price on the Johannesburg exchange following the May 18
announcement that it would withdraw from the tender, many investors are pessimistic on the stock. I believe they have
misinterpreted this relationship and are perceiving what should be good news as bad news.
In the end, we concluded that the financial and functional constraints contained in the new RFP, along with the almost certain
risk of lengthy and costly litigation and further unsubstantiated attempts to tarnish the company's reputation left us with no other
option than to withdraw from the RFP and to pursue our stated strategy with vigor.
During a special May 18 call, management outlined in the excerpts above and below the rationale behind their
decisions and their future outlook. In the past, the contract limited them significantly in terms of sustainability.
Because of the contract nature of their relationship with the government, UEPS could never be viewed as a sustainable
business and thus left a negative overhang. Furthermore, it was hard to rationalize whether the company could
successfully replicate its business model in other countries if it did not have similar government relationships like it did
in South Africa. UEPS did not have the expertise to operate as a company independent to the government in the past.
However, I believe now considering its past successful in building a system recognized as a leader worldwide and its
shift to be more independent from the government, UEPS is successfully working towards becoming more sustainable
and will become more appealing to future investors.
Over time, we believe that this approach will ensure a sustainable business mobile that will far exceed the benefits that could be
realized from being the successful bidder for the SASSA RFP and that the financial results of these activities will offset any
potential slack from losing the direct SASSA business overtime.
Source: Company Website, Investor Presentation, Capital
IQ, Seeking Alpa, BizNews, Alpha Gen Capital
May 2015
17
Africa
North America
PAX Global
99%
Cardtronics
Global Payments
Europe
1%
69%
10%
28%
71%
Heartland
100%
Euronet
100%
UEPS
25%
0%
20%
23%
73%
40%
60%
80%
May 2015
100%
18
Relative Margins
EBIT Margins
EBITDA Margins
$582
19% 19%
$452
14%
$390
$343
5%
$280
8%
Heartland
2010
2011
2012
2013
Euronet
150%
16%
PAX Global
Global
Payments
(-$51m
Net Debt)
UEPS
6.00x
4.00x
100%
50%
0%
23%
12%
2014
250%
23%
21%
10%
30%
2.00x
Net 1 Ueps
Euronet
0.00x
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
May 2015
2014
2015
19
Risks
May 2015
20
Valuation
Public Company Comparables
(In millions, except per share data)
Stock Price
Company Name
19/05/2015
Euronet Worldwide, Inc.
61.36
Heartland Payment Systems, Inc.
53.24
Global Payments Inc.
105.38
Cardtronics Inc.
38.24
PAX Global Technology Limited
1.57
% of 52-Week
High
Low
99.0%
139.7%
94.6%
133.5%
99.4%
156.8%
95.6%
136.4%
97.9%
283.9%
Shares
Out.
51.9
36.6
66.5
44.9
1,111.0
Market
Cap
3,183.3
1,948.5
7,003.3
1,715.9
1,745.7
Enterprise
Value
3,131.9
2,492.9
8,569.1
2,369.2
1,496.3
Revenue
LTM
1,706.0
2,390.6
2,741.1
1,091.7
306.1
CY+1
1,760.9
795.9
2,841.2
1,184.1
404.5
EBITDA
LTM
CY+1
234.8
273.7
179.3
213.9
579.6
616.5
246.5
296.4
59.0
80.5
EPS
LTM
CY+1
1.72
3.02
0.95
2.82
3.83
5.12
0.95
2.82
0.05
0.06
Median
Mean
53.24
51.96
97.9%
97.3%
139.7%
170.1%
51.9
262.2
1,948.5
3,119.4
2,492.9
3,611.9
1,706.0
1,647.1
1,184.1
1,397.3
234.8
259.9
273.7
296.2
0.95
1.50
2.82
2.77
14.43
96.8%
143.0%
46.6
672.5
621.9
644.4
617.8
190.25
163.93
2.10
2.23
CY+2
1.64x
2.91x
2.81x
1.87x
2.87x
LTM
13.3x
13.9x
14.8x
9.6x
25.4x
TEV/EBITDA
CY+1
11.4x
11.7x
13.9x
8.0x
18.6x
CY+2
10.1x
10.5x
12.2x
7.3x
13.8x
LTM
35.7x
56.2x
27.5x
40.1x
34.5x
P/E
CY+1
20.3x
18.9x
20.6x
13.6x
24.7x
CY+2
17.8x
16.5x
18.2x
12.1x
19.1x
LT Growth
Company Name
Rate (%)
Euronet Worldwide, Inc.
14.7
Heartland Payment Systems, Inc.
15.2
Global Payments Inc.
11.8
Cardtronics Inc.
14.0
PAX Global Technology Limited
32.5
LTM
1.84x
1.04x
3.13x
2.17x
4.89x
TEV/Revenue
CY+1
1.78x
3.13x
3.02x
2.00x
3.70x
Median
Mean
14.7
17.6
12.3
15.4
16.7
23.4
2.17x
2.61x
3.02x
2.73x
2.81x
2.42x
13.9x
15.4x
11.7x
12.7x
10.5x
10.8x
35.7x
38.8x
20.3x
19.6x
17.8x
16.8x
10.0
5.5
15.3
0.97x
1.01x
NA
3.3x
3.8x
3.6x
6.9x
6.5x
6.3x
(56%)
(63%)
(67%)
(63%)
NA
NA
(77%)
(79%)
(67%)
(70%)
(66%)
(67%)
(81%)
(82%)
(68%)
(67%)
(65%)
(63%)
Trades at approximate 70% discount to the industry with a larger discount around LTM metrics. 2015E
metrics suggest an implied price of ~$50 thus suggesting more than a 200% upside. UEPS is at the minimum
low range of all multiples.
Euronet concentrates on Europe, Heartland on US, Global mostly on US/Europe/Canada and a bit in APAC,
Cardtronics in US/Europe/Mexico, PAX in HK/PRC. EasyPay competitors in SA: BankServ. KSNET
competitors in SK: KICC, NICE, First Data Korea.
Since all of its competitors do operate primarily in the Europe and Canadian regions, it is fair to assume that
UEPS should be trading at a discount. There are no companies which are publically traded and similar in
nature to UEPS in the Asian and African regions specifically. As a result, comparables were not used in
determining the final price target.
May 2015
21
Valuation
Revenue Breakdown: Drivers and Conservative, Base, and Optimistic Cases
PROJECTED REVENUES
(USD in millions, except per share data)
Total Revenue
Annual Growth
2010
280.4
2011
343.4
22.5%
2012
390.3
13.6%
2013
452.1
15.9%
16.0%
52.3
50.0
1.5%
20.2%
26.3%
223
85.8%
7,076.7
1.1%
53.0
1.4%
50.2
0.4%
1.5%
1,753.2
3,252.0
35.5
35.5
49,358.1
91,554.5
7.91
4.94
-38%
120
7,000.0
Fiscal Year
2014
581.7
28.6%
Ending June
|
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
|
646.1
753.9
876.7
984.5
1,120.4
|
11.1%
16.7%
16.3%
12.3%
13.8%
|
24.4% |
28.0%
31.2%
33.8%
35.8%
37.8%
20.8% |
14.8%
11.4%
8.3%
5.9%
5.6%
393 |
691
1,077
1,476
1,845
2,214
76.2% |
75.8%
55.9%
37.0%
25.0%
20.0%
7,154.3 |
7,232.7
7,312.0
7,392.1
7,473.1
7,555.0
1.1% |
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
53.7 |
54.4
55.2
55.9
56.7
57.4
1.4% |
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
50.4 |
50.7
50.9
51.1
51.3
51.6
0.4% |
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
1.5% |
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
|
5,720.7 |
10,040.3
15,621.0
21,370.5
26,666.5
31,944.7
|
35.5 |
35.5
35.5
35.5
35.5
35.5
|
161,054.8 | 282,666.7
439,781.3
601,645.7
750,746.3
899,343.9
|
|
Base - Contract Not Given Out & Minor Success in New Business Plan
|
41.67%
42%
42%
42%
42%
Conservative - Contract Given Out
|
29%
29%
29%
29%
29%
Optimistic - Contract Not Given Out & Major Success in New Business Plan
|
58%
58%
58%
58%
58%
|
3.61 |
5.49
4.11
3.50
3.15
2.99
-27% |
52%
-25%
-15%
-10%
-5%
|
Base
|
646.1
753.9
876.7
984.5
1,120.4
|
11%
16.7%
16.3%
12.3%
13.8%
Conservative |
452.3
527.7
613.7
689.2
784.3
|
-22%
16.7%
16.3%
12.3%
13.8%
Optimistic
|
904.5
1,055.5
1,227.3
1,378.3
1,568.6
|
56%
16.7%
16.3%
12.3%
13.8%
|
CAGR
2015-2019
14.8%
7.8%
33.8%
1.1%
1.4%
0.4%
33.6%
33.6%
(14.1%)
14.8%
14.8%
14.8%
Commentary:
Top-down analysis was taken by looking at a study for the projected growth of the global mobile transaction
industry. To be conservative, it was assumed UEPS would still only be in South Africa and South Korea.
Using the two countries relative to the world population, market value was determined. The captured rate was
determined on rough estimates for UEPSs current market shares. In South Africa, it was assumed they have
of the market with the only major competitor as BankServ. In South Korea, they are among the top 4
players which take up 65% of the market. of 65% was taken. Average revenue per market volume was
given as an approximation by management in their March 18 special events call.
Further Links, Readings, and References:
http://www.pymnts.com/news/2014/can-apple-with-nfc-ignite-mobile-payments/#.VW8W5_lVhHw
http://www.businessinsider.com/a-primer-on-the-mobile-payments-market-2013-9
http://dazeinfo.com/2014/01/23/smartphone-users-growth-mobile-internet-2014-2017/
Source: Company Website, Company Executives, DazeInfo, United Nations,
World Bank, Capital IQ, Business Insider
May 2015
22
Valuation
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Present Value of Equity @ May 19, 2015
PV of 2015 Free Cash Flow Stub(1)
PV of 2016-2019 Free Cash Flows(1)
PV of Terminal Value(1)
Enterprise Value
Less:
Total Debt
Preferred Stock
Minority Interest
Plus:
Cash and Equivalents
Equity Value
5.0
184.3
1,102.7
1,292.0
Shares Outstanding
Implied Per Share Value
Current Price
Premium/(Discount) to Current Price
46.6
28.81
14.43
99.6%
% of TEV
0.4%
14.3%
85.3%
100.0%
(60.0)
0.0
(0.3)
% of MVE
0.4%
13.7%
82.1%
96.2%
(4.5%)
0.0%
(0.0%)
111.0
1,342.6
NasdaqGS:UEPS
WACC
9.67%
10.17%
10.67%
11.17%
11.67%
4.0x
24.87
24.47
24.08
23.69
23.31
6.0x
34.70
34.11
33.54
32.98
32.43
8.3%
100.0%
Total Revenue
Annual Growth
Cost of Revenue
Margin
EBITDA
Annual Growth
Margin
Less: Depreciation and Amortization
% of Capital Expenditure
EBIT
Annual Growth
Margin
Less: Income Taxes
32.8%
Unlevered Net Income
Plus: Depreciation and Amortization
Less: Capital Expenditure
Margin
Less: Additions to Intangibles
Less: Increase in Working Capital
Margin
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
Annual Growth
2010
280.4
73.0
26.0%
127.1
45.3%
19.3
708.7%
107.8
38.4%
(35.4)
72.4
19.3
(2.7)
(1.0%)
0.0
(32.2)
(11.5%)
56.8
2011
343.4
22.5%
109.9
32.0%
119.9
(5.7%)
34.9%
34.7
230.3%
85.2
(21.0%)
24.8%
(27.9)
57.3
34.7
(15.1)
(4.4%)
0.0
(20.0)
(5.8%)
56.9
0.1%
2012
390.3
13.6%
141.0
36.1%
111.9
(6.7%)
28.7%
36.5
93.2%
75.4
(11.5%)
19.3%
(24.7)
50.6
36.5
(39.2)
(10.0%)
0.0
(79.4)
(20.3%)
-31.4
(155.3%)
2013
452.1
15.9%
196.8
43.5%
63.8
(43.0%)
14.1%
40.6
178.5%
23.2
(69.3%)
5.1%
(7.6)
15.6
40.6
(22.7)
(5.0%)
0.0
(6.6)
(1.5%)
26.8
(185.4%)
2016E
753.9
16.7%
337.3
44.7%
225.2
16.7%
29.9%
52.2
141.1%
173.0
20.2%
23.0%
(56.8)
116.3
52.2
(37.0)
(4.9%)
0.0
(82.4)
(10.9%)
49.1
12.9%
2017E
876.7
16.3%
392.2
44.7%
261.9
16.3%
29.9%
54.8
127.4%
207.1
19.7%
23.6%
(67.9)
139.2
54.8
(43.0)
(4.9%)
0.0
(95.8)
(10.9%)
55.2
12.3%
2018E
984.5
12.3%
440.5
44.7%
294.1
12.3%
29.9%
54.9
113.7%
239.2
15.5%
24.3%
(78.5)
160.8
54.9
(48.3)
(4.9%)
0.0
(107.6)
(10.9%)
59.8
8.4%
2019E
1,120.4
13.8%
501.3
44.7%
334.7
13.8%
29.9%
55.0
100.0%
279.8
17.0%
25.0%
(91.8)
188.0
55.0
(55.0)
(4.9%)
0.0
(122.4)
(10.9%)
65.6
9.7%
May 2015
CAGR
2015-2019
14.8%
14.8%
2.9%
18.1%
18.1%
14.8%
14.8%
10.8%
23
Valuation
Precedent Transaction Analysis
Announced Between January 1st, 2009 and December 18th, 2014
Target Name
DIBS Payment Services AB (publ.)
Date
12/18/2014
Transaction
Equity
Value
$
121
4.2 x
18.8 x
11/14/2014
1,094
6,055
617
172
9.5 x
42.7 x
ServiceLink, L.P.
01/02/2014
3,117
4,027
1,914
375
2.1 x
11.7 x
01/13/2013
20
102
29
23
3.5 x
4.4 x
01/13/2011
2,218
2,616
639
305
4.2 x
11.5 x
10/29/2010
242
229
88
44
2.6 x
8.9 x
10/28/2010
256
322
1,114
19
0.3 x
8.7 x
08/13/2010
241
200
16
31
12.6 x
28.7 x
10/29/2010
242
229
88
44
2.6 x
8.9 x
Mean
Median
839
242
1,544
229
504
88
113
44
4.6 x
3.5 x
16.0 x
11.5 x
Transaction
Enterprise
Value
$
113
Operating Metrics
Revenue
EBITDA
$
27 $
6
Valuation Multiples
EV /
EV /
Revenue
EBITDA
All valuation multiples listed are LTM metrics from transaction close date. Its comparable companies
were either International Financial Services or Data Processing companies with transaction value
between $200M and $7B. UEPSs revenue and EBITDA multiples are 3.3 x and 0.97 x respectively. Even
considering a 20% control premium, trades at more than a 100% discount to past transactions.
Precedents weighed less heavily compared to other indicators to be more conservative. Implied upside
consensus around the $50 implying over a 200% upside with control premium. NET1 UEPS likely to
receive potential lower valuation because of South African base and higher discount rate which should
be used (factored into WACC for DCF), however last transaction of UEPS acquisition of KSNET may
provide more relevant metrics,
May 2015
24
Recommendation
Alternatives
Act as Acquisition Target:
UEPS has many exemplary LBO characteristics. Its
low P/E multiple means that in the event of it being
acquired, there will likely be an accretive result for
acquiring company. UEPS has a strong amount of
cash flows, minute debt, abundance of cash, high
margins, rapid historical growth and future potential,
and a competitive advantage within industry.
Pursue International Expansion Through
Acquisitions:
Considering large cash base and unpaid debt amount,
UEPS may continue to grow its reach until
operations until it operations become truly
universal. Through this path, it will retain its
historical growth over past years in ~20% CAGR
region by acquiring subordinates and organic growth.
License Technology Through Joint Ventures:
Partner with existing transaction payment processors
in untouched countries and license out valuable
products, technology, or services.
Brand Proliferation/Improve Recognition:
Despite many growth opportunities, UEPS remains
undervalued. Differing names of many subordinates
may confuse public investors. South African
customers do not pay much attention to stock
because it is listed in NASDAQ. Amalgamating
brands could help improve recognition through
media channels.
Price Target
May 19 Price
22 Month Target
Price
$14.43
Dividend Yield %
Implied Return
99.6%
$28.81
Valuation Summary
Current
Price:
$14.43
Target
Price:
$28.81
$35.98
$18.53
$43.95
$22.52
$26.01
$31.70
LTM EV / Revenue
LTM EV / EBITDA
$49.34
$64.78
$47.99
$66.46
2015E EV / Revenue
2015E EV / EBITDA
2015E Price / Earnings
$37.21
$41.07
$42.08
$45.81
$43.65
$45.27
May 2015
25
Appendix
Discounted Cash Flow Calculations
WACC ANALYSIS
(USD in millions, except per share data)
Assumptions
35.1%
7.98% GSAB10YR
NYU Stern
8.6%
2.7%
IBBOTSON
8.2%
8.9%
Size premium
7.4%
and country
0.0%
32.8%
risk premiums
South Africa
South Africa Government Debt - 10 Year
WACC
Average
Levered
Beta
1.819
0.903
1.027
0.516
0.495
Total
Debt
427.5
589.3
2,059.3
674.6
0.0
Mkt. Val.
Equity
3,183.3
1,948.5
7,003.3
1,715.9
1,745.7
Debt/
Equity
13.4%
30.2%
29.4%
39.3%
0.0%
Unlevered
Beta (2)
1.673
0.755
0.862
0.411
0.495
0.952
0.839
0.839
8.9%
32.8%
0.890
0.6%
0.890
0.6%
8.0%
2.7%
11.2%
91.8%
10.3%
7.4%
32.8%
5.0%
8.2%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
WACC
Ticker
Name
NasdaqGS:EEFTNasdaqGS:EEFT
Euronet Worldwide
NYSE:HPY
NYSE:HPY
Heartland Payment Systems
NYSE:GPN
NYSE:GPN
Global Payments
NasdaqGS:CATMNasdaqGS:CATM
Cardtronics
SEHK:327
SEHK:327
PAX Global Technology
10.7%
NasdaqGS:UEPS
D/(D+P+E)
#
0.00%
#
5.00%
#
10.00%
#
15.00%
#
20.00%
#
25.00%
#
30.00%
#
3.50%
11.2%
10.7%
10.3%
9.9%
9.4%
9.0%
8.5%
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
4.00%
11.2%
10.8%
10.3%
9.9%
9.5%
9.1%
8.6%
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
9.25%
9.3%
9.0%
8.8%
8.6%
8.4%
8.2%
8.0%
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
10.00%
10.0%
9.7%
9.5%
9.2%
9.0%
8.7%
8.5%
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
6.00%
11.2%
10.8%
10.5%
10.1%
9.8%
9.4%
9.0%
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
6.50%
11.2%
10.8%
10.5%
10.2%
9.8%
9.5%
9.1%
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
12.25%
12.3%
11.9%
11.5%
11.2%
10.8%
10.4%
10.1%
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
13.00%
13.0%
12.6%
12.2%
11.8%
11.4%
11.0%
10.6%
8.50%
8.5%
8.3%
8.1%
8.0%
7.8%
7.6%
7.4%
Cost of Equity
10.75%
#
10.8% #
#
10.5% #
#
10.2% #
#
9.9% #
#
9.6% #
#
9.3% #
#
9.0% #
Source: Company Website, SEC Filings, Investor Presentation, Bloomberg, Capital IQ,
NYU Stern, IBBOTSON
11.50%
11.5%
11.2%
10.8%
10.5%
10.2%
9.9%
9.5%
May 2015
26
Appendix
Discounted Cash Flow Calculations
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
(USD in millions, except per share data)
NasdaqGS:UEPS
WACC
9.67%
10.17%
10.67%
11.17%
11.67%
Discounted
CF
2015-2019
192.9
191.1
189.3
187.5
185.8
Net Debt(1)
NasdaqGS:UEPS
at
WACC
03/31/15
9.67%
(50.6)
10.17%
(50.6)
10.67%
(50.6)
11.17%
(50.6)
11.67%
(50.6)
NasdaqGS:UEPS
WACC
9.67%
10.17%
10.67%
11.17%
11.67%
=>
4.0x
915.7
898.7
882.1
865.9
850.1
6.0x
1,373.6
1,348.1
1,323.2
1,298.9
1,275.1
4.0x
1,159.2
1,140.4
1,122.1
1,104.1
1,086.6
4.5x
1,273.7
1,252.8
1,232.3
1,212.4
1,192.8
6.0x
1,617.1
1,589.8
1,563.1
1,537.1
1,511.6
6.0x
6.2%
6.7%
7.2%
7.7%
8.1%
4.0x
4.6%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
Source: Capital IQ
Divided
By
46.6
Shrs
=
4.0x
1,108.6
1,089.8
1,071.4
1,053.5
1,035.9
4.0x
24.87
24.47
24.08
23.69
23.31
Value
5.5x
1,452.0
1,426.8
1,402.2
1,378.2
1,354.7
6.0x
1,566.4
1,539.2
1,512.5
1,486.4
1,461.0
6.0x
34.70
34.11
33.54
32.98
32.43
4.0x
72.4%
69.6%
66.8%
64.2%
61.6%
May 2015
27
Appendix
Discounted Cash Flow Calculations
DCF Assumptions
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
10.67%
5.0x
7.8%
Tax Rate
32.8%
2010
280.4
73.0
2011
343.4
109.9
Accounts Receivable
Receivable Days
Inventory
Inventory Days
Other Current Assets
Margin
Total Non-Cash Current Assets
49.5
73.2
7.3
37.8
12.8
5.2%
69.5
52.4
68.2
3.6
18.1
100.4
35.8%
156.3
95.3
101.3
6.7
22.3
202.8
59.0%
304.8
Accounts Payable
Payable Days
Accrued Liabilities
Margin
Other Current Liabilities
Margin
Total Non-Debt Current Liabilties
5.5
28.5
8.3
3.4%
64.0
25.9%
77.8
3.6
18.0
11.0
3.9%
127.0
45.3%
141.6
11.4
37.7
13.0
3.8%
251.6
73.3%
276.0
Total Revenue
Cost of Revenue
(8.3)
2016E
1,105.9
494.8
2017E
1,363.7
610.1
2018E
1,581.6
707.6
2019E
1,799.1
804.9
119.7
112.0
10.8
27.9
414.8
106.3%
545.3
81.5
65.8
12.2
22.7
789.8
174.7%
883.5
159.4
100.0
10.8
15.1
780.0
134.1%
950.2
225.9
100.0
15.3
15.1
1,105.6
134.1%
1,346.8
303.1
100.0
20.5
15.1
1,483.1
134.1%
1,806.7
373.7
100.0
25.3
15.1
1,828.8
134.1%
2,227.8
433.5
100.0
29.3
15.1
2,121.0
134.1%
2,583.8
493.1
100.0
33.4
15.1
2,412.6
134.1%
2,939.0
13.2
34.1
16.0
4.1%
439.3
112.6%
468.5
26.6
49.3
14.7
3.2%
773.9
171.2%
815.1
17.1
24.0
15.2
2.6%
760.7
130.8%
793.0
24.2
24.0
21.5
2.6%
1,078.2
130.8%
1,124.0
32.5
24.0
28.8
2.6%
1,446.4
130.8%
1,507.8
40.1
24.0
35.6
2.6%
1,783.6
130.8%
1,859.3
46.5
24.0
41.3
2.6%
2,068.6
130.8%
2,156.3
52.9
24.0
46.9
2.6%
2,353.0
130.8%
2,452.8
222.8
298.9
368.6
427.5
486.2
(65.6)
(76.1)
(69.7)
(58.9)
(58.8)
2012
390.3
141.0
14.8
28.8
76.8
68.4
157.2
(23.1)
(14.1)
(47.9)
8.3
(88.8)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: Capital IQ
May 2015
28