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2 August 2001

Americas / United States


Investment Strategy
Equity Research

Cash Flow.com
Why Its Important to Focus on Cash
Economics

Update Volume 9
This report outlines a practical framework for analyzing the cash economics
of business models.
Our analysis indicates that knowledge-oriented companies tend to have
superior cash economics than their physical asset oriented counterparts.
Exemplifying this trend, the income statement of companies such as Dell,
Yahoo!, and Amazon.com understate their ability to generate cash.
US Investment Strategy

Michael J. Mauboussin
212 325 3108
michael.mauboussin@csfb.com

Alexander Schay
212 325 4466
alexander.schay@csfb.com

This potential for higher cash flows helps explain for the valuation premiums
that investors observe in knowledge-based sectors

Cash Flow.com

2 August 2001

Executive Summary

Cash is king. In recent years, scores of startup companies have barged into the
consciousness of investors. These companiesepitomized by the dot.com
phenomenonhoped to reshape the corporate landscape. But all companies are
ultimately held to a singular standard: the ability to generate long-term cash flows.
Investors can draw two lessons from the gyrations in technology company
valuations. First, many will try and few will succeed. This pattern has played out
time and time again in the business annals. Second, as corporate landscape
transitions from a reliance on physical to knowledge assets, the pattern of cash
flows is changing. Specifically, companies are increasingly expensing their
investments, while their tangible assets remain relatively modest. As a result,
income statement analysis is misleadinginvestors must follow the cash.

What you see is not what you get. Investors calculate free cash flow by subtracting
investments from a companys cash earnings. Most physical asset intensive
companiescompanies that rely on physical assets for their source of competitive
advantage-have a cash inflow from earnings and a cash outflow from investments
such as working capital and capital spending. Thus, cash earnings for these
companies will typically overstate their free cash flow. For example, Barnes and
Noble generated $225 million in cash earnings for the 12 months ending on January
30, 2001. However, it also invested over $450 million during the period, translating
into negative free cash flow of $225 million. For every $1 in investment, Barnes and
Noble generated $2 in new sales.

What you see is not what you get, part two. Knowledge oriented companieswhich
rely on people as their source of competitive advantageoften have superior cash
economics. Yet they generate cash in a totally different way. Some can generate
cash from their balance sheets through a combination of negative working capital
totals and relatively modest fixed asset investments. This means that cash earnings
for a knowledge company can dramatically understate the companys total free cash
flow. Amazon.com is a case in point: in 2000, a $1 investment supported $10 in new
sales. Some knowledge companies will see their ratio of investment to new sales
diminish.

Heed the balance sheet. Investors anxious to own cash cows have naturally
focused on the income statement. However, our analysis indicates that looking at
the balance sheet of a knowledge company can unveil an important source of cash.
Investors must look at both financial statements, as it is free cash flowthe sum of
a firms cash earnings and investmentsthat drives shareholder value creation. We
believe that understanding these fundamental differences in the cash economics of
business models will become increasingly important as the digital revolution
transforms the world.

Cash Flow.com

2 August 2001

Introduction
On the final exam [for a business valuation course], Id probably take an Internet
company, and [ask], How much is it worth? And anybody that gave me an answer, Id
flunk...
1

Warren Buffett

Some investors claim that we are in a new age where old rules do not apply. We
disagree. Yes, for companies with no earnings, old valuation rules-of-thumb like priceto-earnings ratios have lost their relevance. But the fundamental drivers of value remain
the same. When investors spend their hard-earned cash to buy a piece of a companys
equity, they are buying a share of the companys future cash flows. And whether
investors are purchasing nascent Internet companies or mature manufacturing
companies, the goal is the sameto buy into a stream of cash flows with a current
value greater than the price they paid.
To understand how the market values any company, then, we first need to understand
the cash economics of business modelsa companys propensity to generate or
consume cash. What is obvious is that many knowledge companies are currently
incurring losses as they spend millions in marketing, while their off-line competitors reap
cash earnings. What is less obvious is that these companies invest much less in their
computers and office space than their more traditional peers spend on bricks-andmortar and working capital. We believe that understanding these fundamental
differences in the cash economics of business models will become increasingly
important as the digital revolution transforms the world.
This report is broken into four parts. First, we have outlined a practical framework for
analyzing the cash economics of business models. Second, we have introduced a
graphical way of highlighting differences between business modelsthe cash
economics matrixand apply this framework to compare companies. Third, we
generalized from our case studies to outline a cash economics lifecycle for companies.
Finally, since the market values a companys ability to generate cash, we have used this
cash economics analysis to explain one possible source of the continuing high
valuations of some knowledge companies.

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2 August 2001

Cash Economics of Business Models


There are businesses ... where you just constantly keep pouring [cash] in and pouring it
in, but where no cash ever comes back. ... One of the things that keeps our life
interesting is trying to avoid those and trying to get into the other kind of business that
just drowns you in cash...
2

Charlie Munger
Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
Earnings growth rates and P/Es may dominate Wall Street banter, but as any small
business owner knows, a companys value stems from its ability to generate cash.
Common sense dictatesand the empirical evidence corroboratesthat the same
3
currency that pays the bills also drives shareholder value.
An investors first step in valuing a company, then, is to assess how much cash a firm
generates or consumes in future years. There are two components to this:

Cash earnings. A company can generate or consume cash from its after-tax
operating profit. We can calculate this figure by subtracting a firms cash taxes from
4
its operating income. Note that a companys cash earnings may be radically
different from accounting metrics such as net income owing to distortions from
noncash accounting entries such as goodwill amortization and financing costs such
as interest expense.

Cash investments. A company can consume or generate cash by investing different


amounts in its on- and off-balance sheet assets. This investment includes both
changes in net working capitalsuch as accounts receivable, which serve as cash
loans extended to finance customer purchasesand in fixed assetssuch as
investments in property, plant and equipment, and any investments in mergers or
5
acquisitions.

This analysis tells us exactly how much cash a company generates or consumes from
these two components. In addition, the sum of these two amounts gives us free cash
flow for that periodthe cash pool available to pay the firms capital providers. This is
critical because the market values a company by discounting its best guess of future
cash flows to the present value at the firms opportunity cost of capitala blended
average of the firms cost of debt and equity. The higher the cash flows, the more
valuable the firm.

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2 August 2001

Exhibit 1: Driver of Cash Earnings and Investments


Volume
Pricing
Expenses
R&D
Leases
Tax Provision
Deferred Taxes
Tax Shield
A/R
Inventories
A/P

Sales
Operating
Margin

Cash
Earnings

Cash
Taxes
Free Cash Flow
Working

Capital

Capital
Expenditures

Cash
Investments

Cash available
for distribution to
all claimholders

Acquisitions/
Divestitures
Source: CSFB analysis.

A companys propensity to generate or consume cash through earnings or investments


determines the nature of its business model. As Exhibit 2 illustrates, companies tend to
fall into one of four categories:
1. Profitable Buildout. Traditionally, successful companies have a cash inflow from
earnings, and a cash outflow from its investments in working capital and bricks-andmortar stores or factories. Companies that fit this profile are in the upper-left
Profitable Buildout quadrant of our diagram.
2. Startups and Value Destroyers. There are two kinds of companies in the lowerleft quadrant, with earnings and investment as outflows. The first type is a Startup
that is both investing in the business and incurring losses as it grows. The second
typea Value Destroyermakes significant investments in negative-return
businesses. Since both of these scenarios necessarily imply a high cash burn-rate,
companies in this quadrant face bankruptcy unless they start generating positive
cash flowor have deep-pocketed owners.
3. Turnarounds and Emerging Capital Efficient Companies. Business models that
are in the lower-right quadrantcompanies with investment as an inflow and
earnings as an outflowtend to be quite uncommon. In one scenario, a struggling
Turnaround company liberates cash tied up in its balance sheet, while incurring
income statement losses. This usually is a temporary phenomenon. A second
scenario involves an Emerging Capital Efficient Company with negative earnings,
but with a capital efficient business model that generates cash from working capital
as sales increase. Since most companies that can manage their working capital this
efficiently are also profitable, this scenario occurs infrequently.
4. Super Cash Flow. Companies in the upper-right Super Cash Flow quadrant
have both earnings and investment as a cash inflow. This kind of company is not
only profitable, but embarks on a one-time or continuous reduction in its net working
capital. A company can do this by lowering the amount of capital it has tied up in

Cash Flow.com

2 August 2001

current assets like accounts receivable or inventory, or by increasing the credit it


receives from suppliers in the form of accounts payable. Only a company with a
cash-efficient business modelits customers pay it before it has to pay its
supplierscan stay in this quadrant for long.
Exhibit 2: Cash Economics of Four Categories of Business Models

Investment
Outflow

Earnings
Inflow

Earnings
Outflow

Investment
Inflow

Profitable Buildout

Super Cash Flow

Value Destruction

Turnarounds

or

or

Startup

Emerging Capital
Efficient Company

Source: Company data, CSFB estimates.

Cash Economics: Physical versus the Knowledge


Businesses
One useful way of summarizing trends in cash earnings and investmentsand shifts in
business modelsis to plot these figures as a time series in a scatterplot. This
diagramwhich we have dubbed the Cash Economics Matrixalso shows a
companys ability to generate free cash flow, as all points on a 45-degree diagonal will
have the same free cash flow. Significantly, the diagonal running through the center of
the chart distinguishes whether a company is generating positive or negative free cash
flow.

Case Study Number One: Barnes and Noble versus Amazon.com


To illustrate this approach, we calculated generated cash economics matrices for
Barnes and Noble and Amazon.coma pair of companies that initially competed solely
in the book retailing industry. (See Exhibit 3 & 4 on the next page.):
Barnes and Noble shows it has consistently been in the Profitable Buildout quadrant
the company has generated a cash earnings inflow and a cash investment outflow for
every quarter since its January 1995 fiscal year. Most striking is the magnitude of the
companys cash investments. For example, for the year ended January 30, 2001, the
company invested $212 million to stock the shelves with books and extend credit to
customers. Partially offsetting this investment was $17 million in cash the company
generated from increased accounts payable. Combined with $252 million invested in

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2 August 2001

new stores, Barnes and Nobles total cash investment in fiscal 2001 exceeded $450
million.
So even though Barnes and Noble generated $225 million in cash earnings over the
same period, its investments more than consumed this amount, translating into $228 of
negative free cash flow.
Amazons cash economics matrix tells a completely different story. As skeptics have
correctly emphasized, the companys sales remain insufficient to offset the costs of the
its high marketing expenses, fulfillment costs, and the burden of its fixed infrastructure.
The result has been steady, albeit narrowing, losses. However, during two of its most
recent four quarters, Amazon generated considerable cash from its balance sheet.
Arguably, this places Amazon on the path to the Emerging Capital Efficient Company
quadrant.
By reducing its net working capital investment to negative $187 million over the course
of 2000, Amazon offset its fixed asset investment of around $300 million (including
capitalized leases) and cut its negative free cash flow in half. With a decline in fixed
asset investment Amazon may fulfill the true promise of its operating model by
ultimately creating cash from its investments. In the fourth quarter of 2000 Amazon
generated an enormous $249 million in cash from its balance sheet (aided materially by
the seasonality of the business). Despite a cash earnings loss of $61 million for the
quarter, AMZN generated $188 in positive free cash flow.
Amazons potential combination of earnings outflows and investment inflows is the exact
opposite of Barnes and Nobles more traditional combination of earnings inflows and
investment outflows. Investors anxious to own companies that just drown you in cash
have naturally focused on the income statement. However, looking at the balance sheet
of a knowledge company can unveil an important source of cash. Investors must look at
both financial statements, as it is free cash flowthe sum of a firms cash earnings and
investmentsthat drives shareholder value creation.

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2 August 2001

Exhibit 3: Rolling 4Q Normalized Free Cash Flow


Barnes and Noble 1995-2001
P ro fita b le
B u ild o u t
Q u ad r a n t

400.0

E arnings
Inflow

200.0

1 /0 1

Cash Earnings

Super
C a sh
F lo w

600.0

P os itive
Free C as h Flow

4 /9 4

(600.0)

(300.0)

Negative
Free C as h Flow

300.0

600.0

(200.0)

E arnings
Outflow

(400.0)

Investment Outflow

Investme nt Intflow

(600.0)
C a s h In v e stm e n t

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB estimates.

Exhibit 4: Rolling 4Q Normalized Free Cash Flow


Amazon.com 1999 - 2000
500.0

Profitable
B uildout
Quadrant

Cash Earnings

Earnings
Inflow

S uper
C ash Flow
Quadrant

250.0

P os itive
Free Cash Flow

(500.0)

(250.0)

3 /9 9

Earnings
O utflow

1 2 /0 0

(250.0)

Investm ent O utflow

Investm ent Intflow

(500.0)
C ash Investment

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB estimates.

250.0

Negative
Free Cash Flow

500.0

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2 August 2001

Case Study Number Two: New York Times versus Yahoo!


Our second case study compares the New York Timesa print media companywith
Yahoo!a company in the New Media industry. As with our previous case study, a
side-by-side comparison of the cash economics matrices for these two companies
reveals dramatically different business models. (See Exhibit 5 & 6.)
Along with most successful traditional companies, the New York Times generates a
cash inflow from earnings and a cash outflow from investmentsplacing it in the
Profitable Buildout quadrant. In 2000, the companys media portfolio generated cash
earnings $416 million. At the same time, its investments to support its future earnings
growth resulted in a $744 million cash investment during this same period. The New
York Times is a successful and well-run company that in a normal operating
environment generates positive free cash flow. However, the very nature of its capitalintensive business means that cash earnings growth is inevitably accompanied by cash
investments.
In contrast, Yahoo!s on-line publishing model can reach new customers and grow sales
without spending lots of cash. This has several benefits. First, because consumers can
access web sites from any Internet connection, Yahoo! can grow its revenues rapidly
without having to endure long delays as it scales its physical infrastructure. This
increases sales, and allows the company to lock in customers before other
6
competitors acquire them. Second, because Yahoo! does not have to spend much
money to serve an incremental customer, revenue growth rapidly translates into higher
margins. This helped Yahoo! achieve sales of $1.1 billion and cash earnings of $172
million in 2000. This growth is even more impressive when compared to the companys
sales of $67 million and breakeven cash earnings in 1997. Further, the on-line business
model allows the company to grow without cash-consuming investments. For example,
the company only spent $141 million to grow its fixed asset base in 2000, despite
almost doubling its sales from $589 million to $1.1 billion.
All together, an increase in Yahoo!s non-interest bearing current liabilities generated
$92 million in cash. At the same time, the companys current assets used $74 million in
cash. The companys working capital generated a net of $18 million in 2000. However
the company saw a fixed investment outflow of $141 million for the year, which
generated a total investment outflow for the year of $123 million. Since Yahoo!
produced $172 million in cash earnings, it posted positive free cash flow of roughly $50
million for the year.
In the third quarter of 2000 Yahoo! generated close to $47 million from working capital,
which was offset by fixed investment of $42 million. This $5 million generated from
investment was added to quarterly cash earnings of $86 million, placing Yahoo! in the
Super Cash Flow quadrant for that quarter. As Yahoo!s fixed investment flows stabilize
going forward, the company may return to this quadrant on a regular basis.

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2 August 2001

Exhibit 5: Rolling 4Q Normalized Free Cash Flow


New York Times 1996 - 2000
Profitable
B uildout
Quadrant

Super
C ash Flow
Quadrant

800.0

1 2 /0 0
400.0

Cash Earnings

Earnings
Inflow

9 /9 6

P ositive
Free Cash Flow

(800.0)

(400.0)

400.0

800.0

Negative
Free Cash Flow

Earnings
O utflow

(400.0)

Investm ent Outflow

Investm ent Intflow

(800.0)
Cash Investment

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB estimates.

Exhibit 6: Rolling 4Q Normalized Free Cash Flow


Yahoo! 1996 - 2001
Profitable
B uildout
Quadrant

Cash Earnings

Earnings
Inflow

Super
C ash Flow
Quadrant

350.0

175.0

1 2 /0 1

P os itive
Free Cash Flow

(350.0)

1 2 /9 6

(175.0)

Negative
Free Cash Flow

Earnings
Outflow

(175.0)

Investm ent Outflow

Investm ent Intflow

(350.0)
Cash Investment

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB estimates.

10

175.0

350.0

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2 August 2001

This case study provides further insight into the possibilities surrounding these new
business models:

The scalability of a knowledge companys business model means that cash


earnings can quickly reverse from losses to profitsand then grow at a much faster
rate than sales. For example, in a 12-month trailing period in the middle of 1999
Yahoo!s sales grew at a 32% rate for three of those quarters, while its trailing cash
earnings grew at 127%about four times that rate. Further, since Yahoo!s cash
inflow from investments also grew at a similar rate, the companys overall free cash
flow grew at 128% during this period. Assuming Yahoo! can generate cash inflows
from investment on a regular basis going forward, it may well return to a positive
differential between sales growth and growth in cash flow.

Cash earnings for a physical company will typically overstate a companys free cash
flow. For example, in 1999-2000, the New York Times generated free cash flow of
$131 milliononly 17% of its cash earnings of $774 million.

11

Cash Flow.com

2 August 2001

Cash Economics Lifecycle


AOL] indicated they expect to be self-funding within 12 months. The core of the bearish
argument on AOL is that it is cash negative and requires infusions of cash to keep
operating. The earnings they report are not real earnings because AOL is not really
making any money, when money is defined as having free cash flow after tax ...
Consequently, the fact that this company expects to get cash neutral or cash positive in
twelve months is extremely bullish.
7

Bill Miller
President, Legg Mason Fund Advisors
After calculating cash economics matrices for a slew of physical and knowledge
companies, it has become evident that each category follows a distinct trend. In fact, the
pattern is so clear that we can generally say that physical asset oriented companies
have a certain cash economics lifecycle. Further, although the cash economics of
knowledge-based companies differ dramatically from their physical counterparts, they
too have their own lifecycle.

Cash Economics Lifecycle of the Typical Physical Company


Like all companies, physical companies tend to start in the Startup quadrant. However,
every successful physical company that we studied moved into the Profitable Buildout
quadrant, where it spends the majority of the rest of its life. A prime example of this is
Wal-Mart. Like most mature and successful companies with a bricks-and-mortar
infrastructure, Wal-Mart has enjoyed an inflow from cash earnings, while incurring an
outflow from its investments for 19 out of its past 20 quarters.8 (See Exhibit 7.) For
example, Wal-Mart generated $7.6 billion from cash earnings for fiscal year 2001.
However, as the company is still opening new stores and expanding internationally, it
also invested an unusually high $7.5 billion in fixed assets during this period. Typically,
Wal-Mart also invests in working capital to support this growth. Wal-Mart has engaged
in a largely successful initiative to push its already healthy working capital management
to new levels of performance. By paying its bills more slowly than it bought new
inventory the company pushed itself into negative working capital territory for two of its
past four quarters, generating $1 billion in working capital in the second quarter.
Just in case one thinks that Wal-Marts current cash economics are a temporary
9
phenomenon, we also calculated a similar matrix for the company from 1973 to 1975.
(See Exhibit 8.) Similarly to its recent history, the Wal-Mart of this period was also in the
Profitable Buildout quadrant.
Generalizing from our four matricesincluding Barnes and Noble, the New York Times,
and a nascent and mature Wal-Martwe can see a distinct trend. After a stint in the
Startup quadrant, most successful physical companies become cash earnings positive.
After making increasing cash investments, diminishing marginal returns eventually
forces a company to lower its investments until its annual investment nears its economic
depreciation, resulting in a net investment of approximately zero and a stable cash
earnings base. (Exhibit 9 represents this graphically.)

12

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2 August 2001

Exhibit 7: Rolling 4Q Normalized Free Cash Flow


Wal-Mart 1994 - 2001
P ro fitab le
B u ild o u t
Qu ad ran t

Cash Earnings

Earnings
Inflow

S u pe r
C ash F low
Q ua dra nt

20,000

10,000
1 /0 1

P os itive
F ree Cas h Flow

1 /9 4

(20,000)

(10,000)

10,000

20,000

Negative
F ree Cas h Flow

E arnings
O utflow

(10,000)

Inves tm ent O utflow

Inves tm ent Intflow

(20,000)
C a sh In vestm en t

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB estimates.

Exhibit 8: Rolling 4Q Normalized Free Cash Flow


Wal-Mart 1973 - 1975
40
P ro fita b le
B u ild o u t
Q u a d ra n t

E arnings
Inflow

20

Cash Earnings

1975
F re e C a sh Fl o w
P o si ti ve

1974
1973

0
-4 0

-2 0

20

F re e C a sh F lo w
Ne g a tive

E arnings
O utflow

-2 0

Inves tm ent O utflow

-4 0
C a s h In v e s tm e n t

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB estimates.

13

Inves tm ent Intflow

40

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2 August 2001

Exhibit 9: Cash Economics Matrix Average Physical Asset Oriented Company


Profitable
Buildout
Quadrant

Super
Cash Flow
Quadrant

Earnings
Inflow

Cash Earnings

Positive
Free Cash Flow

Negative
Free Cash Flow

Earnings
Outflow
Startup
Quadrant

Investment Outflow

Investment Intflow

Cash Investment

Source: CSFB analysis.

Cash Economics Lifecycle of the Typical Knowledge Company


The knowledge-based companies that this report features also start in the Startup
quadrant. However, a favorable cash conversion cycle can translate into a cash inflow
from investment, even in the face of mounting losses. This moves them to the Emerging
Capital Efficient Company quadrant. Then, as their business model scales and they
start to report earnings, both cash earnings and investments generate cash inflows. This
places them in the Super Cash Flow quadrant. (This is represented graphically in
Exhibit 11.)
Some of Yahoo!s and Amazons most recent quarters attest to the possibility of this
pattern taking root. A successful example of this pattern is Dell Computer, which builds
personal computers to the custom specifications of customers who order from mailorder catalogs, and from the companys Internet web site. (See Exhibit 10.) Since 1996
half of Dells quarters have witnessed a cash inflow from cash earnings and
investments, as its ability to generate cash from its working capital has more than paid
10
for its investments in fixed assets.

14

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Exhibit 10: Cash Economics Matrix Rolling 4Q Normalized Free Cash Flow
Dell Comuter 1994-2000
Profitable
Buildout
Quadrant

Cash Earnings

Earnings
Inflow

1,000

(2,000)

Super
Cash Flow
Quadrant

2,000
10/00

Positive
Free Cash Flow

7/94

(1,000)

1,000

Negative
Free Cash Flow

Earnings
Outflow

(1,000)

Investment Outflow

Investment Intflow

(2,000)
Cash Investment

Source: Company data, CSFB estimates.

Exhibit 11: Cash Economics Matrix

Profitable
Buildout
Quadrant

Super
Cash Flow
Quadrant

Earnings
Inflow

Cash Earnings

Positive
Free Cash Flow

Negative
Free Cash Flow

Earnings
Outflow

Startup
Quadrant

Emerging Capital
Efficient Company
Quadrant

Investment Outflow

Investment Inflow

Cash Investment

Source: CSFB analysis.

15

2,000

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Valuation in the Physical versus Knowledge


Economy
In the Theory of Investment Value, written over 50 years ago, John Burr Williams set
forth the equation for value, which we condense here: The value of any stock, bond or
business is determined by the cash inflows and outflowsdiscounted at the appropriate
interest ratethat can be expected to occur during the remaining life of the asset.
11

Warren Buffett

Investors care about the cash economics of businesses because they determine the
magnitude, timing, and risk of future cash flows. And as Buffett notes, the value of any
stock is the present value of these cash flows.
Because knowledge companies have dramatically different cash flows than physical
companies, we would expect them to have dramatically different valuations as well. To
demonstrate this, we valued a range of companies with different cash economics.
Specifically, we assumed the companies had initial cash earnings of $100, which grew
at a constant rate of 15% for 11 years. We also assumed that each company had
different initial cash investment requirementsranging from a cash outflow of $200 to a
cash inflow of $200which also grew at a constant rate of 15% for 10 years.
We can sum the cash earnings and investments to obtain a projected stream of free
cash flows for each company. Using a cost of capital of 10%, we performed a
discounted cash flow analysis to value each hypothetical company. We then plotted the
resulting price-to-earnings ratio versus the initial cash investments for each company.
(See Exhibit 12.)
Exhibit 12: Price-to-Earnings Ratio versus Initial Cash Investment
60

Price to Earnings Ratio

50

40

30

20

10

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

50

100

150

200

Initial Cash Investment


Increasing Cash Investment Outflow

Source: CSFB analysis.

16

Increasing Cash Investment Inflow

250

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2 August 2001

As we would expect, all things equal, the larger the cash inflow from cash investments,
the more valuable the company. Conversely, a larger cash outflow from cash
investments translates into a lower valuation. We see this pattern in the real world as
well. The companies we profiled all have significantly less investment needs than their
physical counterparts. Thus, we believe that there are solid fundamental underpinnings
behind the high valuations in the Internet sector. (See Exhibit 13.)
Exhibit 13: Valuation Metrics for Old and New Economy Companies:
Price to Sales
Ticker

Company

2001E

2002E

in millions

AMZN
BKS

Amazon
Barnes and Noble

YHOO
NYT

Yahoo!
New York Times

DELL
WMT

Dell Computer
Wal-Mart

Enterprise Value to
Price to Earnings
Sales
2001E
2002E
2001E
2002E
in millions

per share

1.8
0.4

1.5
0.4

1.8
0.6

1.5
0.5

NMF
20.7

NMF
16.0

16.4
2.1

12.9
2.0

15.8
2.2

12.4
2.1

531.2
19.9

158.2
17.2

1.9
1.1

1.7
1.0

1.8
1.2

1.6
1.0

32.6
34.3

28.0
29.9

Source: Company data, CSFB estimates.

Conclusion
As people, ideas, and networks continue to become the major sources of competitive
advantage for companies, we believe that this shift will only become more intractable.
Hence, we believe that an understanding of the different cash economics of knowledge
companies is essentialnot only for the technology investors of today, but for the
generalist investors of tomorrow.
N.B.: CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON CORPORATION may have, within the last three years, served as a manager or co-manager
of a public offering of securities for or makes a primary market in issues of any or all of the companies mentioned.
Closing prices as of April 30, 2001:
Amazon.com (AMZN, $16.89)
AOL Time Warner (AOL, $51.96)
Barnes and Noble (BKS, $32.90)
Borders Book Group (BGP, $19.69)
The New York Times (NYT, $41.28)
Wal-Mart (WMT, $53.50)
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17

Q1/99

Q2/99

Q3/99

1999

Q1/00

Q2/00

Q3/00

Q4/00

Assets
Cash and ST Investments
Excess cash
Required cash
Inventories
Prepaid expenses and other

1,443.0
1,430.3
12.6
45.2
37.1

1,144.2
1,113.7
30.5
59.4
53.3

905.7
891.0
14.7
118.8
55.6

706.2
690.5
15.7
220.6
85.3

1,008.9
926.9
82.0
172.3
89.8

907.6
878.9
28.7
172.4
86.7

900.0
871.1
28.9
163.9
99.2

1,100.5
1,068.6
31.9
174.6
86.0

95.0

143.2

189.1

321.7

344.1

287.7

292.0

292.5

Accounts payable
Accrued advertising
Other liabilites and accrued expenses
Non-Interest Bearing Current Liabilities

133.0
16.2
45.2
194.4

166.0
22.4
79.7
268.1

236.7
24.6
83.6
344.9

463.0
55.9
150.9
669.8

255.8
160.6
416.4

286.2
188.1
474.3

304.7
195.1
499.8

485.4
341.9
827.3

Net Working Capital

(99.4)

(124.9)

(155.8)

(348.1)

(72.4)

(186.6)

(207.9)

(534.8)

Net P,P&E
Present Value of Oper Leases

60.6
105.6

156.3
106.4

221.2
107.1

317.6
107.9

334.4
171.7

344.0
235.5

352.3
299.4

366.4
363.2

Phantom goodwill
Goodwill and other purchased intangibles
Total accumulated amortization

87.8
187.2
71.2

87.8
741.9
121.7

87.8
705.9
221.2

87.8
730.1
268.6

87.8
647.2
273.4

87.8
596.8
333.7

87.8
520.5
394.1

87.8
255.3
454.4

512.3

1,214.0

1,343.2

1,512.0

1,514.4

1,597.8

1,653.9

1,527.1

412.9

1,089.2

1,187.4

1,163.9

1,442.0

1,411.2

1,446.0

992.3

Current Assets

18

Fixed Assets

Invested capital

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 14: Amazons Accumulated Cash Investments, or Invested Capital (in millions, 1999 to present)

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis, note: invested capital excludes investments and deferred charges.

2 August 2001

Q1/99

Q2/99

Q3/99

Q4/99

Q1/00

Q2/00

Q3/00

Q4/00

19

Net Sales

293.6

314.4

355.8

676.0

573.9

577.9

637.9

972.4

Total COS
Gross income

228.9
64.8

246.8
67.5

285.3
70.5

588.2
87.8

445.8
128.1

441.8
136.1

470.6
167.3

748.1
224.3

60.7
23.5
11.2
25.3

86.6
44.6
18.5
99.5
11.8
260.9

179.9
57.3
25.9
47.4
14.2
324.8

140.1
61.2
26.0
85.0
13.7
326.0

129.8
67.1
28.5
82.9
8.2
316.4

138.3
71.2
26.2
91.0
4.1
330.8

186.2
69.8
28.2
263.3
(1.1)
546.4

Marketing and sales


Product development
General and administrative
M&A related costs
Stock-based compensation
Operating Expenses

120.7

85.9
34.3
14.5
50.5
4.7
190.0

Adjusted EBIT

(55.9)

(122.5)

(190.5)

(236.9)

(197.9)

(180.4)

(163.5)

(322.1)

25.3
(30.6)

50.5
(71.9)

99.5
(91.0)

47.4
(189.5)

85.0
(112.9)

82.9
(97.5)

91.0
(72.5)

263.3
(58.8)

2.5
2.5

2.5
2.5

2.6
2.6

5.0
5.0

6.9
6.9

8.8
8.8

(28.1)

(69.4)

(88.4)

+ Goodwill amortization
Adjusted EBITA
+ Interest expense of cap O L
Net Adjustment for Capitalized Expenses
Adjusted Net Operating Profit
+ Change in reserves
Change in deferred revenues
Income Equivalents

2.6
2.6

3.2
3.2

(186.9)

(109.8)

(92.5)

(65.6)

(50.1)

(19.2)
(19.2)

26.5
26.5

(10.9)
(10.9)

80.0
80.0

Net Operating Profit Before Taxes


Income Tax Provision

(28.1)
-

(69.4)
-

(88.4)
-

(186.9)
-

(29.8)
-

(111.7)
-

(39.1)
-

(61.0)
-

Net Operating Profit After Taxes

(28.1)

(69.4)

(88.4)

(186.9)

(29.8)

(111.7)

(39.1)

(61.0)

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 15: Amazons Cash Earnings, or Net Operating Profit After Taxes (in millions, 1999 to present)

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis.Note: R&D is expensed.

2 August 2001

Q1/99

Quarterly Cash Earnings

Q2/99

Q3/99

Q4/99

Q1/00

Q2/00

Q3/00

Q4/00

(28.1)

(69.4)

(88.4)

(186.9)

(29.8)

(111.7)

(39.1)

(61.0)

Inventory
Prepaid expenses and other
Curent Assets

15.7
15.8
31.5

14.2
16.3
30.4

59.4
2.3
61.7

101.9
29.8
131.6

(48.4)
4.5
(43.9)

0.1
(3.2)
(3.0)

(8.5)
12.5
4.0

10.7
(13.1)
(2.5)

Accounts payable
Accrued advertising
Other liabilites and accrued expenses
Current Liabilities

19.7
3.1
10.6
33.5

33.0
6.2
10.6
73.7

70.7
2.2
17.8
76.8

226.3
31.3
52.4
324.9

(207.2)
(55.9)
18.8
(253.4)

30.4
2.1
57.9

18.5
13.2
25.5

180.7
112.6
327.4

3.0
30.9
33.9

(25.4)
96.5
71.1

(31.0)
65.7
34.7

(192.3)
97.1
(95.2)

275.8
80.6
356.4

(114.2)
73.5
(40.8)

(21.3)
72.1
50.8

(326.9)
77.9
(248.9)

Free cash flow

(62.0)

(140.5)

(123.1)

(91.7)

(386.1)

(70.9)

(89.9)

187.9

Normalized Cash Investment Inflow (Outflow)


Cash Earnings Inflow (Outflow)
Normalized Free Cash Flow

(33.9)
(28.1)
(62.0)

(71.1)
(69.4)
(140.5)

(34.7)
(88.4)
(123.1)

95.2
(186.9)
(91.7)

(356.4)
(29.8)
(386.1)

40.8
(111.7)
(70.9)

(50.8)
(39.1)
(89.9)

248.9
(61.0)
187.9

(26.5)
(79.6)
(106.2)

(89.6)
(138.2)
(227.8)

(115.7)
(205.2)
(320.9)

(44.5)
(372.8)
(417.4)

(367.0)
(374.5)
(741.5)

(255.1)
(416.8)
(671.9)

(271.2)
(367.5)
(638.7)

(117.4)
(241.6)
(359.0)

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 16: Summary of Amazons Cash Earnings and Investments (in millions, 1999 to present)

Quarterly Changes:

20

Investment in net working capital


Investment in fixed assets
Total Cash Investment

Trailing Twelve Months:


Normalized Cash Investment Inflow (Outflow)
Cash Earnings Inflow (Outflow)
Normalized Free Cash Flow

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis. Note: Normalized Cash Investment does not include stock or cash spent on acquisition of web technology companies with little or no cash earnings.

2 August 2001

Cash
Excess cash
Required cash
Receivables
Inventory
LIFO reserve
Prepaid expenses
Curent Assets

31.1
15.8
26.1
10.8
5.0
5.0
57.5
43.2
945.1
940.3
2.9
54.6
74.7
1,065.1 1,063.3

9.6
4.6
5.0
54.1
913.6
76.5
1,049.2

19.2
14.2
5.0
76.5
1,275.2
59.1
1,415.8

24.2
18.9
33.3
19.2
13.9
28.3
5.0
5.0
5.0
58.2
58.4
69.0
1,102.5 1,162.1 1,121.1
56.6
49.9
70.0
1,222.3 1,275.4 1,265.1

4Q01
1/30/01

36.6
31.6
5.0
88.3
1,454.9
72.6
1,620.8

26.0
21.0
5.0
84.5
1,238.6
106.1
1,434.3

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 17: Barnes and Nobles Accumulated Cash Investments, or Invested Capital (in millions, 4Q99 to present)
4Q99
1Q00
2Q00
3Q00
4Q00
1Q01
2Q01
3Q01
1/30/99 5/2/99 7/31/99 10/30/99 1/30/00 5/2/00 7/29/00 10/28/00
Assets

21

Accounts payable
Other current liabilities
Current Liabilities

498.2
274.1
772.3

439.5
225.1
664.6

394.4
210.4
604.8

756.9
210.5
967.5

599.4
323.5
922.9

589.8
221.1
811.0

578.2
214.4
792.6

865.2
196.6
1,061.8

582.1
353.0
935.1

Net Working Capital

292.8

398.7

444.5

448.3

299.4

464.4

472.5

559.0

499.2

510.3
515.7
1,811.4 1,829.3
87.0
86.2
39.7
50.6
2,448.4 2,481.9

529.7
1,847.3
85.4
48.8
2,511.1

557.2
1,865.2
287.4
45.0
2,754.9

568.0
553.3
570.5
1,883.1 1,937.8 1,992.4
298.0
299.4
423.8
65.7
62.4
61.1
2,814.9 2,852.8 3,047.8

577.9
2,047.0
420.1
63.3
3,108.3

566.2
2,101.6
359.2
40.2
3,067.2

2,741.1 2,880.5

2,955.6

3,203.2

3,114.3 3,317.3 3,520.3

3,667.3

3,566.4

Net P,P&E
Present value of operating leases
Intangible assets, net
Other noncurrent assets
Fixed Assets

Invested capital

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis. *note: PV operating lease calculations for 2001 are estimates.

2 August 2001

4Q99
1/30/99

1Q00
5/2/99

2Q00
3Q00
7/31/99 10/30/99

4Q00
1/30/00

1Q01
5/2/00

2Q01
3Q01
7/29/00 10/28/00

4Q01
1/30/01

22

Net sales
Cost of sales, buying and occupancy
Gross income

990.2
670.2
320.0

718.3
526.0
192.4

727.2
527.9
199.3

715.9
515.4
200.5

1,324.6
914.5
410.2

894.3
654.2
240.1

924.3
676.3
248.1

951.8
693.0
258.9

1,605.4
1,146.3
459.1

Selling and administrative expenses


Depreciation and amortization
Pre-opening expenses
Total operating expenses

106.5
18.9
1.9
127.3

151.9
25.8
0.8
178.5

155.7
26.6
1.5
183.8

150.5
27.8
2.1
180.4

193.0
32.2
2.3
227.5

181.3
33.0
1.5
215.8

190.7
34.6
1.8
227.1

190.9
37.0
2.8
230.7

250.1
40.2
1.6
291.9

192.7

13.8

15.5

20.1

182.7

24.3

20.9

28.2

167.2

0.6
193.3

3.8
17.6

3.8
19.2

3.8
23.8

3.8
186.5

1.9
26.2

1.9
22.8

1.9
30.1

1.9
169.1

35.7
35.7

36.2
36.2

36.6
36.6

36.9
36.9

37.3
37.3

37.7
37.7

38.8
38.8

39.8
39.8

40.9
40.9

229.0

53.8

55.8

60.8

223.8

63.9

61.6

69.9

210.0

Change in LIFO reserve


Change in Capitalized Expenses

(2.9)
(2.9)

Net Operating Profit Before Taxes

229.0

56.7

55.8

60.8

223.8

63.9

61.6

69.9

210.0

73.7
1.9
12.5
88.1

(1.0)
1.7
12.7
13.3

16.4
1.8
12.8
4.8
26.1

2.4
2.0
12.9
(2.3)
19.6

71.9
2.9
13.1
7.5
80.5

(2.9)
3.4
13.2
(3.8)
17.4

(6.1)
4.6
13.6
1.0
11.1

(3.7)
5.3
13.9
1.3
14.3

31.7
5.4
14.3
37.4
(49.2)
138.1

140.9

43.3

29.7

41.2

143.3

46.5

50.5

55.7

72.0

Adjusted EBIT
+ Goodwill amortization
Adjusted EBITA
+ Interest expense of capitalized operating leases
Net Adjustment for Capitalized Expenses
Adjusted Net Operating Profit

+ Income tax provision


+ Net tax impact from interest
+ Tax benefit from capitalization of operating lea
+ Net tax impact of non-operating charges/gains
- Adjusted Increase deferred taxes
Cash operating taxes
Net Operating Profit After Taxes

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 18: Barnes and Nobles Cash Earnings, or Net Operating Profit After Taxes (in millions, 4Q99 to present)

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis.

2 August 2001

Quarterly Cash Earnings

140.9

43.3

29.7

41.2

143.3

46.5

50.5

55.7

72.0

104.7

(105.9)

(45.8)

(3.8)

148.9

(165.0)

(8.0)

(86.5)

59.8

Quarterly Changes:
Investment in net working capital

23

Investment in fixed plant

(8.5)

(33.5)

(29.2)

(243.8)

(60.0)

(37.9) (195.0)

(60.5)

41.1

Quarterly Cash Investment

96.1

(139.4)

(75.0)

(247.6)

88.9

(203.0) (203.0)

(147.0)

100.9

237.1

(96.1)

(45.3)

(206.5)

232.2

(156.5) (152.5)

(91.3)

172.9

(13.7)
(90.7)

(13.2)
(79.4)

(14.7)
(88.7)

(10.3)
(0.7) (15.2) (14.9)
(215.9) (154.5) (221.8) (207.5)

14.3
38.4
21.0
(30.6)

24.4
6.8
9.6
(51.8)

16.2
2.1
9.2
(75.9)

Free Cash Flow

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 19: Summary of Barnes and Nobles Cash Earnings and Investments (in millions, 4Q99 to present)
4Q99
1Q00
2Q00
3Q00
4Q00 1Q01 2Q01
3Q01
4Q01
1/30/99 5/2/99 7/31/99 10/30/99 1/30/00 5/2/00 7/29/00 10/28/00 1/30/01

Trailing Twelve Months:

Receivables
Inventory & LIFO reserve
Prepaid expenses and other current
assets
Accounts payable
Other current liabilities
Investment in net working capital

13.8
133.0
28.5
(50.8)

(1.9)
101.1
49.4
(6.7)

24.8
150.3
(3.9)
(65.8)

(11.8) (26.3)
(179.8) (136.2)

6.5
183.8
4.1
(28.0)

(13.5) (49.5)
108.3
(17.3)
(13.9)
29.5
(110.7) (199.8)

Investment in fixed plant

(122.1)

(134.5) (117.7)

(315.1) (366.5) (371.0) (536.7)

(353.4) (252.3)

Cash Investments Inflow (Outflow)


Cash Earnings Inflow (Outflow)
Free Cash Flow

(152.8)
206.9
54.1

(186.3) (193.7)
227.7 236.6
42.9
41.4

(365.9) (373.2) (436.7) (564.7)


255.1 257.5 260.6 281.4
(110.8) (115.7) (176.1) (283.3)

(464.1) (452.1)
296.0 224.6
(168.1) (227.5)

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis..

2 August 2001

1 Q /9 9
3 /3 1 /9 9
C a s h a n d c a s h e q u iv a le n ts
S h o rt-te rm in v e s tm e n ts
L o n g -te r m in v e s tm e n ts
A c tu a l c a s h a n d S T in v e s tm e n ts
E xcess cash
R e q u ire d c a s h
A c c o u n ts re c e iv a b le
P re p a id e x p e n s e
C u re n t A s s e t s

2 Q /9 9
6 /3 0 /9 9

3 Q /9 9
9 /3 1 /9 9

4 Q /9 9
1 2 /3 1 /9 9

1 Q /0 0
3 /3 1 /0 0

2 Q /0 0
6 /3 0 /0 0

3 Q /0 0
9 /3 0 /0 0

4 Q /0 0
1 2 /3 1 /0 0

24

1 8 4 .5
2 5 1 .9
2 1 8 .5
6 5 4 .8
6 4 9 .8
5 .0
2 6 .9
9 .1
4 1 .0

1 8 4 .1
3 6 6 .8
2 1 9 .8
7 7 0 .8
7 6 5 .8
5 .0
3 4 .1
1 3 .0
5 2 .0

1 4 1 .5
5 3 4 .8
1 7 0 .2
8 4 6 .5
8 4 0 .8
5 .8
4 3 .9
1 4 .0
6 3 .7

2 3 4 .0
6 3 8 .5
3 3 9 .6
1 ,2 1 2 .1
1 ,2 0 4 .3
7 .8
5 4 .4
1 9 .0
8 1 .2

3 3 6 .6
6 5 5 .3
5 5 1 .9
1 ,5 4 3 .8
1 ,5 3 2 .2
1 1 .6
5 9 .7
2 0 .4
9 1 .7

4 4 4 .6
5 9 9 .6
6 0 3 .7
1 ,6 4 7 .9
1 ,6 3 6 .5
1 1 .4
6 7 .7
2 4 .7
1 0 3 .8

5 2 2 .2
7 1 5 .3
6 1 3 .1
1 ,8 5 0 .6
1 ,8 3 7 .1
1 3 .5
7 4 .5
2 7 .0
1 1 5 .0

4 8 6 .9
6 6 3 .4
6 2 6 .0
1 ,7 7 6 .2
1 ,7 6 1 .4
1 4 .8
9 0 .6
5 0 .1
1 5 5 .4

A c c o u n ts p a y a b le
A c c r u e d e x p e n s e s a n d o th e r c u rre n t lia b ilitie s
C u rre n t L ia b ilit ie s

7 .3
3 8 .1
4 5 .4

8 .3
5 4 .9
6 3 .2

1 1 .2
7 4 .1
8 5 .4

1 3 .5
8 8 .2
1 0 1 .6

1 4 .5
1 0 5 .3
1 1 9 .8

1 6 .4
1 2 7 .3
1 4 3 .8

1 9 .3
1 8 2 .2
2 0 1 .5

2 6 .0
1 6 8 .0
1 9 4 .1

N e t W o rk in g C a p ita l

(4 .4 )

(1 1 .1 )

(2 1 .7 )

(2 0 .4 )

(2 8 .1 )

(4 0 .0 )

(8 6 .5 )

(3 8 .7 )

1 9 .9
2 0 .0

3 4 .2
2 7 .7

4 4 .5
3 5 .4

5 8 .1
4 3 .1

6 4 .4
6 5 .5

7 9 .0
8 7 .9

9 8 .1
1 1 0 .3

1 0 9 .8
1 3 2 .7

8 0 .9
3 .9

9 9 .1
5 .9

1 0 6 .1
7 .8

1 2 6 .2
9 .7

2 0 4 .8
1 4 .6

2 1 8 .7
1 9 .6

2 5 9 .6
2 4 .5

2 4 2 .9
2 9 .4

2 1 .2

2 1 .2

2 1 .2

2 1 .2

2 1 .2

2 1 .2

2 1 .2

2 1 .2

6 2 .8

6 2 .8

6 2 .8

6 2 .8

6 2 .8

6 2 .8

6 2 .8

6 2 .8

2 0 .1

2 0 .1

2 0 .1

2 0 .1

2 0 .1

2 0 .1

2 0 .1

2 0 .1

2 5 .6

2 5 .6
3 ,1 4 6 .7
5 3 .6

2 5 .6
3 ,1 4 6 .7
5 3 .6
4 ,0 3 1 .9

2 5 .6
3 ,1 4 6 .7
5 3 .6
4 ,0 3 1 .9

2 5 .6
3 ,1 4 6 .7
5 3 .6
4 ,0 3 1 .9
7 5 .8

2 9 8 .6

3 ,5 4 0 .9 6

7 ,5 9 9 .7 9

7 ,6 4 3 .0 5

7 ,8 3 1 .0 6

2 5 .6
3 ,1 4 6 .7
5 3 .6
4 ,0 3 1 .9
7 5 .8
3 7 0 .2
8 ,2 5 7 .1 4

2 5 .6
3 ,1 4 6 .7
5 3 .6
4 ,0 3 1 .9
7 5 .8
3 7 0 .2
8 ,3 4 4 .5 2

2 5 .6
3 ,1 4 6 .7
5 3 .6
4 ,0 3 1 .9
7 5 .8
3 7 0 .2
8 ,3 6 6 .8 4

2 9 4 .1

3 ,5 2 9 .8

7 ,5 7 8 .1

7 ,6 2 2 .7

7 ,8 0 3 .0

8 ,2 1 7 .1

8 ,2 5 8 .0

8 ,3 2 8 .2

N e t P ,P & E
P re s e n t V a lu e o f O p e r L e a s e s
O th e r
A c c u m u la te d g o o d w ill a m o rtiz a tio n
P h a n to m g o o d w ill fr o m b u y o u t o f V is a s in te r e s t in
Y a h o o ! M a rk e tp la c e
P h a n to m g o o d w ill fr o m p o o lin g a c q u is itio n o f
F o ur11
P h a n to m g o o d w ill fr o m p o o lin g a c q u is itio n o f
W ebCal
P h a n to m g o o d w ill fr o m p o o lin g a c q u is itio n o f
Y oyodyne
G e o C itite s
O n lin e A n y w h e r e
b ro a d c a s t.c o m
A rth a s .c o m
e G ro u p s
F ix e d A s s e ts

In v e s t e d c a p it a l

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 20: Yahoo!s Accumulated Cash Investments, or Invested Capital (in millions, 1999 to present)

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis

2 August 2001

1Q/99
3/31/99

2Q/99
6/30/99

3Q/99
9/31/99

4Q/99
12/31/99

1Q/00
3/31/00

2Q/00
6/30/00

3Q/00
9/30/00

4Q/00
12/31/00

86.1
9.7
76.4

115.2
18.5
96.8

155.1
26.2
128.9

232.2
47.4
184.8

228.4
34.5
193.9

270.1
39.3
230.8

295.5
40.9
254.7

316.1
43.8
272.4

Sales and marketing


Product development
General and administrative
Acquisition costs
Total operating expenses

32.3
9.0
3.5
1.2
45.9

42.7
12.9
6.9
3.5
65.9

53.3
16.2
8.2
3.5
81.2

86.7
29.4
17.8
5.7
139.5

78.5
23.2
12.9
4.1
118.6

94.7
24.2
14.2
4.8
137.9

109.2
30.1
19.9
5.4
164.6

137.4
39.8
27.5
5.4
210.1

Adjusted EBIT

30.4

30.9

47.7

45.3

75.3

92.9

90.1

62.3

Goodwill amortization
Adjusted EBITA

1.6
32.0

3.8
34.7

3.8
51.5

6.0
51.3

4.4
79.7

5.1
98.0

5.8
95.9

5.8
68.1

+ Interest expense of capitalized operating leases


Net Adjustment for Capitalized Expenses

0.4
0.4

0.6
0.6

0.7
0.7

0.9
0.9

1.3
1.3

1.8
1.8

2.2
2.2

2.7
2.7

Change in Deferred Revenues

7.2

18.4

8.4

18.3

24.2

10.6

26.9

(35.2)

Net Operating Profit Before Taxes

39.6

53.7

60.7

70.5

105.2

110.4

125.0

35.5

Income tax provision


+ Net tax impact from interest
+ Tax benefit from capitalization of operating leases
+ Tax benefit from minority interest
- Increase deferred taxes
Cash Operating Taxes

10.5
(2.3)
0.1
0.1
8.4

(3.0)
(2.8)
0.2
0.3
(5.3)

20.2
(3.5)
0.2
0.2
17.1

13.1
(4.6)
0.3
0.3
9.1

51.9
(19.9)
0.5
0.6
33.1

43.6
(6.4)
0.6
0.8
38.6

47.7
(10.1)
0.8
0.5
38.8

44.8
48.2
0.9
(0.0)
94.0

Net Operating Profit After Taxes

31.2

59.0

43.6

61.4

72.0

71.8

86.2

(58.5)

25

Net revenue
Cost of revenue
Gross income

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 21: Yahoo!s Cash Earnings, or Net Operating Profit After Taxes (in millions, 1999 to present)

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis. Note: R&D is expensed.

2 August 2001

1Q/99
3/31/99
Quarterly Cash Earnings

2Q/99
6/30/99

3Q/99
9/31/99

4Q/99
12/31/99

1Q/00
3/31/00

2Q/00
6/30/00

3Q/00
9/30/00

4Q/00
12/31/00

31.2

59.0

43.6

61.4

72.0

71.8

86.2

(58.5)

(2.4)
12.4
10.0

(6.7)
22.0
15.3

(10.5)
18.0
7.5

1.3
21.3
22.6

(7.7)
28.7
21.0

(11.9)
37.0
25.1

(46.5)
41.5
(5.0)

47.9
34.1
82.0

31.2
10.0
21.2

59.0
15.3
43.7

43.6
7.5
36.1

61.4
22.6
38.8

72.0
21.0
51.1

71.8
25.1
46.7

86.2
(5.0)
91.2

(58.5)
82.0
(140.4)

106.4
(16.5)
89.9

149.9
(28.7)
121.1

169.6
(35.7)
133.9

195.1
(55.3)
139.8

236.0
(66.3)
169.7

248.8
(76.1)
172.7

291.4
(63.7)
227.8

171.6
(123.1)
48.5

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 22: Summary of Yahoo!s Cash Earnings and Investments (in millions, 1999 to present)

Quarterly Changes:
Investment in net working capital
Investment in fixed assets
Total Cash Investment

26

Quarterly NOPAT
Normalized Cash Investment Inflow (Outflow)
Normalized Free Cash Flow
Trailing Twelve Months:
Cash Earnings Inflow (Outflow)
Normalized Cash Investment Inflow (Outflow)
Normalized Free Cash Flow

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis. Note: Normalized Cash Investment does not include stock or cash spent on acquisition of web technology companies with little or no cash earnings.

2 August 2001

1Q99
3/31/99

2Q99
6/30/99

3Q99
9/30/99

4Q99
12/30/99

1Q00
3/31/00

2Q00
6/30/00

3Q00
9/30/00

4Q00
12/30/00

27

Cash
Excess cash
Required cash
Accounts receivable, net
Inventories
Other current assets
Curent Assets

39.8
34.8
5.0
321.4
36.8
119.1
482.4

31.9
26.9
5.0
342.5
28.0
118.0
493.5

43.6
38.6
5.0
324.2
33.9
127.5
490.7

63.9
58.9
5.0
366.8
28.7
155.6
556.0

36.1
31.1
5.0
363.5
31.2
159.2
559.0

37.5
32.5
5.0
370.6
32.3
157.0
564.9

42.9
37.9
5.0
347.7
41.3
169.2
563.1

69.0
64.0
5.0
341.9
35.1
164.8
546.7

Accounts payable
Payrolls
Accrued expenses
Current Liabilities

169.5
74.9
192.1
436.4

153.4
83.0
170.5
406.9

177.8
85.1
183.4
446.4

191.7
105.3
193.6
490.5

200.4
81.9
223.7
505.9

195.0
93.3
203.0
491.3

193.0
105.4
190.0
488.4

178.3
114.2
203.9
496.4

46.0

86.6

44.3

65.5

53.1

73.6

74.7

50.3

1,305.9
955.9
248.1
359.0
26.1
2,895.0

1,283.1
948.4
255.6
353.7
28.5
2,869.3

1,267.7
969.7
260.4
348.6
30.8
2,877.2

1,218.4
961.8
262.1
343.2
33.2
2,818.7

1,236.2
1,096.4
279.7
455.4
184.0
3,251.7

1,216.5
1,090.6
292.9
441.0
334.9
3,375.9

1,199.5
1,083.2
300.8
432.9
485.7
3,502.1

1,207.2
1,060.8
302.6
419.3
636.6
3,626.4

200.0
126.1

223.6
128.4

223.9
126.2

235.5
121.9

241.6
123.0

240.9
121.2

222.0
118.4

201.3
107.3

3,267.1

3,307.8

3,271.6

3,241.7

3,669.3

3,811.6

3,917.2

3,985.4

Net Working Capital


Net PP&E
Intangible assets acquired
Accumulated goodwill amortization
Other intangible assets acquired
Present value of operating leases
Fixed Assets
Miscellaneous assets
Investment in joint venture

Invested capital

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 23: New York Times Accumulated Cash Investments, or Invested Capital (in millions, 4Q98 to present)

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis..

2 August 2001

1Q99
3/31/99

2Q99
6/30/99

3Q99
9/30/99

4Q99
12/31/99

1Q00
3/31/00

2Q00
6/30/00

3Q00
9/30/00

4Q00
12/31/00

Total revenues

739.1

779.4

729.7

882.5

843.2

885.6

787.3

973.4

Cost of sales

329.8

337.2

313.0

398.8

359.3

365.0

353.3

380.5

Gross income

409.3

442.2

416.7

483.7

483.9

520.6

434.0

592.8

294.0

287.3

303.9

295.3

329.0

334.7

317.9

413.9

115.2

154.9

112.8

188.4

154.9

185.9

116.2

178.9

12.7
127.9

12.8
167.6

9.9
122.7

14.8
203.2

16.8
171.7

16.7
202.5

16.0
132.2

7.7
186.6

0.5
0.5

0.5
0.5

0.6
0.6

0.6
0.6

0.7
0.7

3.7
3.7

6.7
6.7

9.7
9.7

128.4

168.2

123.3

203.8

172.4

206.2

138.9

196.3

Selling, general and administrative expenses

28

Adjusted EBIT
+ Goodwill amortization
Adjusted EBITA
+ Interest expense of capitalized operating leases
Net Adjustment for Capitalized Expenses
Adjusted Net Operating Profit
Change in deferred revenues
Income Equivalents
Net Operating Profit Before Taxes

4.7
4.7
133.1

Income tax provision


+ Net tax impact from interest
+ Tax benefit from capitalization of operating leases
+ Net tax impact of non-operating charges/gains
- Increase deferred taxes
Cash operating taxes

46.1
4.2
0.2
(1.5)
0.1
48.9

Net Operating Profit After Taxes

84.2

(4.9)
(4.9)
163.3
61.8
4.5
0.2
(1.1)
11.8
53.6
109.7

2.5
2.5
125.7
44.7
4.5
0.2
(1.7)
(34.0)
81.7
44.0

(3.3)
(3.3)
200.6
75.6
4.6
0.2
(1.9)
(2.1)
80.5
120.1

7.8
7.8
180.2
60.2
5.4
0.2
(1.3)
(8.8)
73.3
106.9

(6.6)
(6.6)
199.6
72.6
5.3
1.3
(1.3)
(6.3)
84.2
115.4

5.9
5.9

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 24: New York Times Cash Earnings, or Net Operating Profit After Taxes (in millions, 4Q98 to present)

(0.1)
(0.1)

144.8

196.2

49.8
6.1
2.3
(9.1)
(21.3)
70.5

93.0
5.6
3.4
(23.8)
1.6
76.6

74.3

119.6

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis..

2 August 2001

Quarterly Cash Earnings

3Q00
9/30/00

4Q00
12/31/00

84.2

109.7

44.0

120.1

106.9

115.4

74.3

119.6

Investment in net working capital


Investment in fixed assets
Total Cash Investment

24.3
87.9
112.2

(40.6)
25.7
(14.9)

42.3
(7.9)
34.4

(21.3)
58.5
37.2

12.4
(433.0)
(420.5)

(20.6)
(124.2)
(144.8)

(1.0)
(126.2)
(127.2)

24.4
(124.3)
(99.9)

Free Cash Flow

196.4

94.8

78.4

157.3

(313.6)

(29.4)

(53.0)

19.6

Investment in net working capital


Iinvestment in fixed assets

1.8
77.9

(19.1)
72.6

9.8
68.1

4.7
164.2

(7.1)
(356.7)

12.9
(506.6)

(30.4)
(624.9)

15.2
(807.7)

Total Cash Investment Inflow (Outflow)


Cash Earnings Inflow (Outflow)
Free Cash Flow

44.4
322.4
366.8

(15.2)
347.2
332.0

9.7
313.0
322.6

100.8
358.0
458.8

(402.2)
380.6
(21.5)

(503.8)
386.4
(117.4)

(645.6)
416.7
(228.9)

(743.7)
416.2
(327.5)

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 25: Summary of New York Times Cash Earnings and Investments (in millions, 4Q98 to present)
1Q99
2Q99
3Q99
4Q99
1Q00
2Q00
3/31/99
6/30/99
9/30/99 12/31/99 3/31/00
6/30/00

Quarterly Changes:

29

Trailing Twelve Months:

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis.

2 August 2001

4Q99
1/31/99

1Q00
4/30/99

2Q00
7/31/99

3Q00
10/31/99

4Q00
1/31/00

1Q01
4/30/00

2Q01
7/31/00

3Q01
10/31/00

4Q01
1/31/01

Cash
Excess cash
Required cash
Receivables
Inventory
LIFO reserve
Prepaid expenses and other
Curent Assets

1,879
1,879
1,118
17,076
473
1,059
21,605

1,967
1,967
1,154
18,149
449
1,076
22,795

1,508
1,508
1,276
18,793
426
1,256
23,259

1,435
1,435
1,630
22,373
402
1,517
27,357

1,856
1,856
1,341
19,793
378
1,366
24,734

1,360
1,360
1,265
20,971
334
1,505
25,435

1,310
1,310
1,249
21,093
290
1,593
25,535

1,311
1,311
1,468
24,975
246
1,675
29,675

2,054
2,054
1,768
21,442
202
1,291
26,757

Accounts payable
Accrued expenses & other
Current Liabilities

10,257
5,499
15,756

11,235
6,510
17,745

12,326
7,220
19,546

14,081
8,452
22,533

13,105
7,290
20,395

13,160
9,705
22,865

12,634
8,162
20,796

15,872
9,843
25,715

15,092
7,196
22,288

5,849

5,050

3,713

4,824

4,339

2,570

4,739

3,960

4,469

31,541
3,216
2,960
820
9,837
328
48,702

32,839
3,130
3,021
632
9,392
387
49,401

33,901
3,093
3,388
664
9,604
470
51,120

34,889
3,115
3,754
893
9,265
553
52,470

36,214
3,112
4,121
1,302
8,994
636
54,380

37,617
3,317
4,488
1,582
9,059
720
56,782

53,526

53,740

53,690

57,209

58,340

61,251

Assets

30

Net Working Capital


Net P,P&E
Net capitalized leases
Present value of operating leases
Other fixed assets
Net Goodwill and other acquired intangibles
Accumulated goodwill amortization
Fixed Assets

23,674
2,299
2,777
2,891

24,310
2,440
2,838
2,927

31,641

32,515

30,933
2,381
2,899
801
9,317
269
46,600

Invested capital

37,490

37,565

50,313

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 26: Wal-Marts Accumulated Cash Investments, or Invested Capital (in millions, 4Q99 to present)

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis

2 August 2001

4Q99
1/31/99

1Q00
4/30/99

2Q00
7/31/99

3Q00
10/31/99

4Q00
1/31/00

1Q01
4/30/00

2Q01
7/31/00

3Q01
10/31/00

4Q01
1/31/01

Net sales
Other income, net
Total revenues

40,785
462
41,247

34,717
406
35,123

38,470
440
38,910

40,432
475
40,907

51,394
475
51,869

42,985
462
43,447

46,112
476
46,588

45,676
505
46,181

56,556
523
57,079

Cost of sales
Gross income

32,397
8,850

27,241
7,882

30,123
8,787

31,606
9,301

40,694
11,175

33,665
9,782

36,044
10,544

35,694
10,487

44,852
12,227

6,022

5,888

6,573

6,907

7,672

7,318

7,625

7,918

8,689

2,828

1,994

2,214

2,394

3,503

2,464

2,919

2,569

3,538

10
2,838

59
2,053

59
2,273

59
2,453

59
3,562

83
2,547

83
3,002

83
2,652

83
3,621

55
55

56
56

57
57

58
58

59
59

60
60

68
68

75
75

82
82

2,892

2,108

2,329

2,511

3,621

2,608

3,070

2,727

3,704

Operating, selling and general and administrative


expenses

31

Adjusted EBIT
+ Goodwill amortization
Adjusted EBITA
+ Interest expense of capitalized operating leases
Net Adjustment for Capitalized Expenses
Adjusted Net Operating Profit
Change in LIFO reserve
Change in other reserves
Income Equivalents

31
31

(24)
(24)

(24)
(24)

(24)
(24)

(24)
(24)

(44)
(44)

(44)
(44)

(44)
(44)

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 27: Wal-Marts Cash Earnings, or Net Operating Profit After Taxes (in millions, 4Q99 to present)

(44)
(44)

Net Operating Profit Before Taxes

2,861

2,132

2,353

2,534

3,645

2,652

3,114

2,771

3,748

Income tax provision


+ Net tax impact from interest
+ Tax benefit from capitalization of operating leases
+ Tax benefit from minority interest
- Increase deferred taxes
Cash operating taxes

997
76
19
12
1,104

660
67
19
6
753

740
67
20
30
856

760
111
20
8
899

1,178
113
21
11
1,323

785
116
21
6
928

948
120
24
20
1,112

807
131
26
965

1,152
114
29
1,295

Net Operating After Taxes

1,757

1,379

1,497

1,635

2,322

1,724

2,002

1,807

2,453

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis.

2 August 2001

4Q99
1/31/99
Quarterly Cash Earnings

1,820

1Q00
4/30/99
1,332

2Q00
7/31/99

3Q00
10/31/99

1,449

1,588

1,338
(14,085)
(12,747)

(1,111)
(2,102)
(3,213)

14,197

4,801

4Q00
1/31/00
2,240

1Q01
4/30/00

2Q01
7/31/00

3Q01
10/31/00

4Q01
1/31/01

1,636

1,914

1,719

2,365

1,769
(1,719)
50

(2,169)
(1,350)
(3,519)

779
(1,910)
(1,131)

(509)
(2,403)
(2,912)

2,454

1,586

5,433

2,850

5,277

Quarterly Changes:
Investment in net working capital
Investment in fixed assets
Total Cash Investment
Free Cash Flow

734
(1,172)
(438)
2,258

799
(874)
(75)
1,407

485
(699)
(214)

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 28: Summary of Wal-Marts Cash Earnings and Investments (in millions, 4Q99 to present)

32

Trailing Twelve Months:


Investment inflow (outflow) in:
Receivables
Inventory + LIFO reserve
Prepaid expenses and other

(142)
(704)
(627)

(145)
(707)
(678)

(268)
(1,191)
(828)

(229)
(1,713)
(1,029)

(223)
(2,622)
(307)

(111)
(2,707)
(429)

27
(2,165)
(337)

162
(2,446)
(158)

(427)
(1,473)
75

Investment inflow (outflow) in:


Accounts payable
Other current liabilities

(1,131)
(1,306)

(1,470)
(2,250)

(2,482)
(2,993)

(2,657)
(2,499)

(2,848)
(1,791)

(1,925)
(3,195)

(308)
(942)

(1,791)
(1,391)

(1,987)
94

2,564

1,759

1,510

2,480

(1,027)

Investment in net working capital

532

994

864

(130)

Iinvestment in fixed assets

(2,948)

(3,471)

(16,944)

(18,233)

(17,759)

(18,604)

(5,869)

(5,677)

(7,382)

Total Cash Investment Inflow (Outflow)


Cash Earnings Inflow (Outflow)
Free Cash Flow

(2,416)
5,351
2,934

(2,477)
5,633
3,156

(14,380)
5,837
(8,543)

(16,474)
6,189
(10,285)

(16,249)
6,608
(9,641)

(16,124)
6,912
(9,212)

(6,896)
7,377
481

(4,814)
7,508
2,694

(7,512)
7,634
122

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis..

2 August 2001

1972

33

Cash
Excess cash
Required cash
Accounts receivable
Inventory
LIFO Reserve
Prepaid Expenses
Curent Assets
Accounts payable
Accrued liabilities
Income taxes payable
Current Liabilities
Net Working Capital
Net P,P&E
Present Value of Oper Leases
Other fixed assets
Fixed Assets

Invested capital

1973

1974

1975

2.0
2.0
0.4
18.5
0.2
21.1

2.2
0.2
2.0
1.1
29.4
0.1
32.6

2.2
0.2
2.0
1.2
41.5
0.3
45.0

3.2
1.2
2.0
1.4
50.6
4.7
0.7
59.4

6.8
1.5
1.1
9.5

8.0
2.4
1.8
12.1

13.3
3.0
1.3
17.7

14.1
4.2
1.4
19.7

11.6

20.5

27.4

39.7

7.1
10.6
0.3
18.0

13.2
13.4
0.2
26.8

14.7
16.3
0.2
31.1

19.2
29.1
0.2
48.4

29.6

47.3

58.5

88.1

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 29: Wal-Marts Accumulated Cash Investments, or Invested Capital (in millions, 197275)

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis.

2 August 2001

1972

1973

1974

1975

78.0
0.7
0.2
78.9

$ 124.9
1.1
0.5
126.4

$ 167.6
1.4
0.4
169.4

$ 236.2
1.8
0.7
238.7

Total COS
Gross income

58.6
20.3

93.1
33.4

123.3
46.0

176.6
62.1

-S, G & A
Operating Expenses

14.3
14.3

23.8
23.8

33.0
33.0

48.1
48.1

Adjusted EBIT
+ Goodwill Amortization
Adjusted EBITA

6.0
6.0

9.5
9.5

13.0
13.0

14.0
14.0

+ Interest expense of capitalized operating leases


Net Adjustment for Capitalized Expenses

0.9
0.9

1.1
1.1

1.3
1.3

2.4
2.4

Adjusted Net Operating Profit

6.9

10.6

14.3

16.4

Net sales
Rentals from leased departments
Other income, net
Total Revenues

34

Change in LIFO Reserve


Change in Other Reserves
Income Equivalents
Net Operating Profit Before Taxes

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 30: Wal-Marts Cash Earnings, or Net Operating Profit After Taxes (in millions, 197275)

4.7
4.7

Income Tax Provision


+ Net Tax Impact From Interest
+ Tax Benefit from Capitalization of Op Leases
- Increase Deferred Taxes
Cash Operating Taxes

6.9
5.6
2.7
0.2
0.4
3.3

10.6
8.9
4.3
0.3
0.5
0.2
4.9

14.3
11.9
5.7
0.5
0.6
0.2
6.6

21.1
12.2
5.9
0.8
1.1
0.3
7.5

Net Operating Profit After Taxes

3.6

5.7

7.7

13.6

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis

2 August 2001

1973

1974

1975

35

Investment inflow (outflow) in:


Receivables
Inventory + LIFO reserve
Prepaid expenses and other

(0.7)
(11.0)
0.1

(0.1)
(12.0)
(0.3)

(0.2)
(13.8)
(0.4)

Investment inflow (outflow) in:


Accounts payable
Accrued liabilities
Income taxes payable

1.2
0.8
0.6

5.3
0.7
(0.4)

0.8
1.1
0.1

Investment in net working capital

(8.9)

(6.9)

(12.3)

Iinvestment in fixed assets

(8.8)

(4.3)

(17.3)

(17.7)
5.7
(11.9)

(11.2)
7.7
(3.5)

(29.6)
13.6
(16.0)

Total Cash Investment Inflow (Outflow)


Cash Earnings Inflow (Outflow)
Free Cash Flow

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 31: Summary of Wal-Marts Cash Earnings and Investments (in millions, 197375)

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis..

2 August 2001

Q1/00
4/30/99

Q2/00
7/30/99

Q3/00
10/29/99

Q4/00
1/28/00

Q1/01
4/28/00

Q2/01
7/28/00

Q3/01
10/27/00

4004
3745
259
2151
289
561
3260

4715
4438
277
2424
336
588
3625

5857
5550
307
2827
374
651
4159

4132
3793
339
2608
391
550
3888

3728
3388
340
2708
441
617
4106

4316
3952
364
2965
442
595
4366

4614
4231
384
3086
424
737
4631

Accounts payable
Accrued and other
Income taxes
Current Liabilities

2641
1247
0
3888

3007
1433
0
4440

3636
1688
0
5324

3538
1654
0
5192

3468
1835
0
5303

3749
1983
0
5732

3950
2141
0
6091

(628)

(815)

(1,165)

(1,304)

(1,197)

(1,366)

(1,461)

536
228
22
786

601
313
44
958

674
398
183
1255

765
483
304
1552

796
483
428
1707

882
483
228
1593

955
483
362
1800

90

248

510

227

339

36

Cash and marketable securities


Excess cash
Required cash
Accounts receivable
Inventory
Other
Curent Assets

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 32: Dells Accumulated Cash Investments, or Invested Capital (in millions, 1999 to present)

Net Working Capital


Net P,P&E
Present Value of Oper Leases
Other
Fixed Assets

Invested capital

158

143

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis, note: invested capital does not include long term assets

2 August 2001

Net revenue
Cost of revenue
Gross income

Q1/01
4/30/00

Q2/01
7/28/00

Q3/01
10/27/00

37

5,174
4,012
1,162

5,537
4,347
1,190

6,142
4,788
1,354

6,784
5,414
1,370

6,802
5,498
1,304

7,280
5,788
1,492

7,670
6,036
1,634

8,264
6,506
1,758

Selling, general and administrative


Research, development and engineering
Total operating expenses

493
74
567

508
82
590

569
91
660

622
98
720

688
103
791

750
117
867

774
124
898

814
126
940

Adjusted EBIT

595

600

694

650

513

625

736

818

Goodwill Amortization
Adjusted EBITA

595

600

694

650

513

625

736

818

4
4

6
6

8
8

10
10

12
12

12
12

12
12

12
12

Net Operating Profit Before Taxes

599

606

702

660

525

637

748

830

Income Tax Provision


+ Net Tax Impact From Interest
+ Tax Benefit from Capitalization of Op Leases
- Increase Deferred Taxes
Cash Operating Taxes

181
(4)
1
178

186
(7)
2
181

217
(11)
3
209

207
(14)
3
196

175
(34)
4
145

225
(44)
4
185

258
(44)
4
218

289
(51)
4
242

Net Operating Profit After Taxes

420

425

493

463

380

452

530

588

Interest Expense of Cap O L


Net Adjustment for Capitalized Expenses

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 33: Dells Cash Earnings, or Net Operating Profit After Taxes (in millions, 1999 to present)
Q4/99
Q1/00
Q2/00
Q3/00
Q4/00
1/29/99
4/30/99
7/30/99 10/29/99 1/29/00

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis..

2 August 2001

Q4/99
1/29/99
Quarterly Cash Earnings

420

Q1/00
4/30/99

Q2/00
7/30/99

Q3/00
10/29/99

Q4/00
1/28/00

Q1/01
4/28/00

Q2/01
7/28/00

Q3/01
10/27/00

425

493

463

380

452

530

588

332
(105)
227

187
(172)
15

350
(297)
53

139
(297)
(158)

(107)
(155)
(262)

169
114
283

95
(207)
(113)

Quarterly Changes:

38

Investment in net working capital


Investment in fixed assets
Total Cash Investment

(27)
(29)
(56)

Free cash flow

364

197

478

411

538

713

246

700

(174)
(254)
(428)

231
(291)
(60)

356
(391)
(34)

841
(602)
239

1,008
(870)
137

569
(920)
(352)

551
(635)
(84)

296
(545)
(249)

Cash Flow.com

Exhibit 34: Summary of Dells Cash Earnings and Investments (in millions, 1999 to present)

Trailing Twelve Months:


Investment in net working capital
Investment in fixed assets
Total Cash Investment
NOPAT Inflow (Outflow)
Free cash flow

1,443
1,015

1,566
1,506

1,718
1,683

1,801
2,040

1,761
1,898

1,788
1,436

1,825
1,741

1,949
1,700

Source: Company SEC filings and CSFB analysis..

2 August 2001

Cash Flow.com

2 August 2001
1

Outstanding Investor Digest. September 24, 1998. Page 41.


Outstanding Investor Digest. September 24, 1998. Page 37.
3 Wolf Bytes 20Earnings are an Opinion, Cash is a Fact, Charles R. Wolf and Bob Hiler, Credit Suisse First Boston
equity research, December 20, 1997.
4 In accounting terms, we start with a firms earnings before interest, taxes, and amortization (EBITA). We then subtract
cash taxesthe amount the company would have paid if it were entirely equity financed, with no interest payments on
its debt to shield the company from taxes. Accordingly, to calculate cash taxes, we first add the tax shield from interest
expense to the income tax provision reported on the income statement. We also have to add back the tax benefit of the
implied interest expense of off-balance sheet debt-equivalents, such as capitalized operating leases. These tax shields
will be equal to the interest expense multiplied by the marginal tax rate. Next, we do an equivalent calculation to add
back the tax impact of non-operating income or expenses to isolate the tax burden of the firms operating income.
Finally, we subtract any increase in the deferred tax balance, since we wish to arrive at cash taxes paid; this difference
represents taxes that have been accrued, but will not be paid until a later period.
5 As a technical detail, note that we calculate cash earnings net of depreciation to measure a companys economic
earnings. To make sure that free cash flow is not understated, we also calculate cash investments to be net of
depreciation. That is, cash investment measures the cash that a company must invest over and above its annual
depreciation. Also, to avoid seasonal fluctuations and quarterly swings, we calculate both figures by summing the
appropriate numbers for the past 12 months.
6In contrast, the New York Times has to invest in physical printing pressesor partner with other newspapersto
expand distribution of its flagship National Edition to other regions. For example, it just announced the expansion of
daily delivery to the non-metropolitan areas of Arizona. See The New York Times Begins Printing National Edition at
Phoenix Print Site. New York Times Company Press Release. http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/990212/ny_the_new_2.html.
(February 12, 1999).
7 Bill Miller's Mutual Fund Forum. http://www.leggmason.com/Funds/fundform2.html. August 12, 1996.
8 One point of note is that Wal-Mart did have three quartersthe nine months from November 1996 and until July
1997in the Super Cash Flow quadrant with cash inflows from earnings and investment. This resulted from a secular
improvement in Wal-Marts ability to generate earnings without tying up so much cash in working capital. Specifically,
over the 12 months ending on April 30, 1997, Wal-Mart reduced cash tied up in current assetssuch as accounts
receivable, inventory, and prepaid expensesby over $600 million, while increasing cash advances from suppliersin
the form of accounts payable and other current liabilitiesby an impressive $1.9 billion. This generated over $2.5 billion
in cash, which more than covered its approximately $1.4 billion investment in new stores, netting an approximately $1.2
billion investment inflow.. Wal-Mart has continued to improve its working capital management, although not to the
extent of generating a cash investment inflow since then.
9 Note that while Amazon is being called the Wal-Mart of the Web, it currently has drastically different cash economics
than Wal-Mart did when its revenues were at a similar run-rate.
10 In the two most recent quarters, Dell has continued to have negative working capital, i.e., its working capital is still
financed by interest-free cash loans from suppliers, customers, and employees. However, perhaps owing to Dells
increased sales to large business accounts with longer sales and payment cycles, the company has actually invested
net cash in its working capital, at least temporarily moving from the Super Cash Flow to the Profitable Buildout
quadrant. We do not believe that this invalidates our knowledge company lifecycle theory, as it represents a startup
cost for Dells new target market, rather than a continuation of growth from its familiar markets.
2

11

Warren Buffetts 1992 letter to shareholders. http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1992.html.

39

AMSTERDAM ............ 31 20 5754 890


ATLANTA................... 1 404 656 9500
AUCKLAND ................. 64 9 302 5500
BALTIMORE .............. 1 410 223 3000
BANGKOK ...................... 62 614 6000
BEIJING ................... 86 10 6410 6611
BOSTON .................... 1 617 556 5500
BUDAPEST .................. 36 1 202 2188
BUENOS AIRES ...... 54 11 4394 3100
CHICAGO................... 1 312 750 3000
FRANKFURT................. 49 69 75 38 0
HOUSTON.................. 1 713 220 6700
HONG KONG .............. 852 2101 6000
JOHANNESBURG ..... 27 11 343 2200

KUALA LUMPUR.........603 2143 0366


LONDON ...................44 20 7888 8888
MADRID .....................34 91 423 16 00
MELBOURNE .............61 3 9280 1888
MEXICO CITY ..............52 5 283 89 00
MILAN .............................39 02 7702 1
MOSCOW....................7 501 967 8200
MUMBAI......................91 22 230 6333
NEW YORK.................1 212 325 2000
PALO ALTO................1 650 614 5000
PARIS........................33 1 53 75 85 00
PASADENA ................1 626 395 5100
PHILADELPHIA ..........1 215 851 1000
PRAGUE ...................420 2 210 83111

SAN FRANCISCO.......1 415 836 7600


SO PAULO .............55 11 3841 6000
SEOUL ........................82 2 3707 3700
SHANGHAI ...............86 21 6881 8418
SINGAPORE....................65 212 2000
SYDNEY......................61 2 8205 4433
TAIPEI.......................886 2 2715 6388
TOKYO........................81 3 5404 9000
TORONTO...................1 416 352 4500
WARSAW....................48 22 695 0050
WASHINGTON............1 202 354 2600
WELLINGTON ..............64 4 474 4400
ZURICH........................41 1 333 55 55

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