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1

Interpretation the oceans are distinct from the seabed floor


that lies beneath them
MarBEF 13 (Marine Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning, funded by the European Union, open
oceans, http://www.marbef.org/wiki/open_oceans, accessed 7/7/14)

The open oceans or pelagic ecosystems are the areas away from the coastal boundaries and
above the seabed. It encompasses the entire water column of the seas and the oceans and
lies beyond the edge of the continental shelf. It extends from the tropics to the polar regions and
from the sea surface to the abyssal depths. It is a highly heterogeneous and dynamic habitat. Physical processes
control the biological activities and lead to substantial geographic variability in production.

Violation the Aff increases exploration and/or development in


the seabed not the ocean they are ecologically and legally
distinct
Berkman 11 (July 2011, Paul Berkman is head of the Arctic Ocean Geopolitics Programme at the Scott
Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, and research professor at Bren School of Environmental Science
& Management, Race for the Arctic: Let the North Pole be a pole of peace, http://www.globalbriefing.org/2011/07/let-the-north-pole-be-a-pole-of-peace/, accessed 7/3/14)
In considering ways to shore up peace in the Arctic Ocean, it is useful to draw a clear distinction between the sea

Ecologically and legally distinct, the sea


floor and overlying water column reveal alternative jurisdictional configurations for
floor (Figure 2a) and the overlying water column (Figure 2b).

Arctic and non-Arctic nations alike to share in strategies that can both promote cooperation and prevent conflict in
the Arctic Ocean.

Standards
1 Limits the topic is already massive they allow the Aff to
do anything in the entire mass of ocean water and do anything
to explore or develop the seabed a strict interpretation of
oceans is the only way to limit a realistically unmanageable
topic.
2 Topic Education they shift the focus of debates to seabed
development instead of genuine ocean development, which
kills predictable clash and core topic learning.
3 Extra Topicality its not okay for the Aff to develop both
the ocean and the seabed. If we win that seabed
exploration/development is distinct then its not within the
scope of Aff topical fiat. Independent voter

Topicality is a voter for fairness and education

2
U.S. foreign policy is effectively implementing multilateral
cooperation and upholding global rules now
Michael A. Cohen 14, former speechwriter in the State Department, fellow at the Century Foundation,
7/9/14, Obamas Understated Foreign Policy Gains, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/10/opinion/obamasunderstated-foreign-policy-gains.html?_r=0
Its been a pretty good couple of weeks for American foreign policy. No, seriously. On June 23, the last of Syrias
chemical weapons stockpile was loaded onto a Danish freighter to be destroyed. The following day, President
Vladimir V. Putin of Russia asked his Parliament to rescind the permission that it had given him to send troops into
Ukraine. Meanwhile, there is still cautious optimism that a nuclear deal with Iran is within reach. What do these
have in common? They were achieved without a single American bomb being dropped and they relied on a
combination of diplomacy, economic sanctions and the coercive threat of military force. As policy makers and
pundits remain focused on Iraq and the perennial but distracting discussion about the use of force, these modest
but significant achievements have, perhaps predictably, been ignored. Yet they hold important lessons for how
American power can be most effectively deployed today.

Plan Violates London Protocol


Paul Kozakiewicz 2014 (The disposal of nuclear waste into the worlds oceans January 27, Analyst at
IB Consultancy http://www.cbrneportal.com/the-disposal-of-nuclear-waste-into-the-worlds-oceans/)

It wasnt until 1993 that nuclear and radioactive ocean disposal had been
fully banned and ratified by international treaties. (London Convention, Basel
Convention, MARPOL). Beyond technical and political considerations, the London Convention places
prohibitions on disposing of radioactive materials at sea and does not
make a distinction between wastes dumped directly into the water and
waste that is buried underneath the oceans floor. It also does not exclude dumping
radioactive waste through pipelines, which companies in Europe are actually doing. Some claim that populations of
humans located near these pipelines are 10 times more likely to die of cancers. While others state the risks are
insignificant.

Treaty violations spill over to threaten the entire treaty


system---that breaks cooperation on every major impact--disease, climate, drug smuggling, trade, terrorism, Middle
East, and Northeast Asian stability
Harold Hongju Koh 3, Gerard C. and Bernice Latrobe Smith Professor of International Law, Yale Law School, May
2003, FOREWORD: On American Exceptionalism, Stanford Law Review, 55 Stan. L. Rev. 1479
Similarly, the oxymoronic concept of "imposed democracy" authorizes top-down regime change in the name of
democracy. Yet the United States has always argued that genuine democracy must flow from the will of the people,
not from military occupation. n67 Finally, a policy of strategic unilateralism seems unsustainable in an

the United States has become party not just to


a few treaties, but to a global network of closely interconnected treaties enmeshed
in multiple frameworks of international institutions . Unilateral administration decisions to
break or bend one treaty commitment thus rarely end the matter, but more usually trigger
vicious cycles of treaty violation . In an interdependent world, [*1501] the United States
simply cannot afford to ignore its treaty obligations while at the same time expecting
its treaty partners to help it solve the myriad global problems that extend far beyond any
one nation's control: the global AIDS and SARS crises, climate change , international debt,
drug smuggling, trade imbalances , currency coordination, and trafficking in human
beings, to name just a few. Repeated incidents of American treaty-breaking create the
interdependent world. For over the past two centuries,

damaging impression of a United States contemptuous of both its treaty obligations and
treaty partners. That impression undermines American soft power at the exact
moment that the United States is trying to use that soft power to mobilize those same
partners to help it solve problems it simply cannot solve alone: most obviously, the war against global
terrorism , but also the postwar construction of Iraq, the Middle East crisis, or the
renewed nuclear militarization of North Korea.

3
In Western thought, nature is constructed in opposition to the
queerdifference is marked as unnatural to ostracize groups
of people. We project heteronormativity on a space which is
inherently complex and fluid. The aff reduces nature to
something that fits into pre-written heteronormative
structures. Bordering humans from nature ignores the
queerness and complexity of bodies.
Merrick, 8 - PhD History (UWA), Senior lecturer at Curtin University (Helen, Queering nature: close
encounters with the alien in feminist science fiction, 2008 Queer Universes: Sexualities in Science Fiction
http://espace.library.curtin.edu.au/R?func=dbin-jump-full&local_base=gen01-era02&object_id=20732)//gingE

in
any series of binary oppressions, each characteristic of the other is seen as closer
to nature in the dualisms and ideology of Western culture . Yet queer sexualities
are frequently devalued for being against nature (Gaard, Toward a Queer 119). As
Gaard points out, the (ab)use of natural/unnatural in regulating queer sexualities stems
from the fact that natural is invariably associated with procreative (Toward a
Queer 120). The difficulty with picking apart such notions is that the natural is on the
one hand used to enforce normative social strictures dressed up as self-evident
imperatives; whilst on the other hand, nature is a subjugated object that is
dominated by culture and western science .4 Nature is, of course, a very slippery term, which
One of the many paradoxes inherent in our use of natures is emphasized by a queer ecofeminist view: that

shades from descriptions of the world to symbols of wilderness, homilies on natural (pre-given, normalized)

that which is outside culture. The human figures in a


strange and shifting relation with these series of signifiers. It is at once a part of
nature (the organic) and what is natural (god- or biology-ordained), but is also apparently
separate from it as the purveyor and originator of culture and discourse. The ways
in which we define human are obviously complexly intertwined with our definitions
and codifications of nature and how we separate the human from nonhuman/other. Human/other boundaries are also, of course, prime sites for
contestations and reinforcements of notions of sexuality . Kate Soper usefully distinguishes
among three differing uses of nature: as a metaphysical concept used to signify humanitys
behaviour, or a way of signifying

difference and specificity, which can either signal human continuity with the non-human or its irreducible

as the realist concept of the physical structures and processes studied by


the natural sciences; and finally as the lay reference to the non-urban environment or
wilderness (Soper). Of most relevance here are the first and second uses, which tend, however
even within the sciencesto blur at the edges. This is partly due to the way the relatedness
of human/non-human is either confirmed or sharply delineated . The appearance of this
difference;

contradictory impulse in even the realist concept of nature becomes clearer if we look to Bruno Latours
characterization of scientific modernity, which has at its heart a paradoxical dynamic generated by two opposing
practices: The first set of practices, by translation creates mixtures between entirely new types of beings, hybrids
of nature and culture. The second, by purification, creates two entirely distinct ontological zones: that of human

much of the work of the


life sciences (and, recently, of biotechnologies) produces continuity between humans and
other organisms (through, for example, DNA or genetically modified products) whilst the
distinctiveness and purity of human as ontological category continues to be
enforced in other discourses. Thus despite the force of this human/other opposition,
beings on the one hand; that of nonhumans on the other. (Latour 10-11) That is,

which is normalized through reference to both nature and culture, it is at heart


inherently unstable. If the very category of human is open to question, with what
authority can this fictive genus continue to substantiate and regulate the excision of
human-generated culture from its other, nature ? Just as sf in general has the
potential to escape the reincorporation of the Cartesian subject of realist fiction
(Pearson, Alien 4), I want to explore the possibility that ecofeminist and feminist science
studies might resist the re-inscription of mechanistic scientific narratives around
nature/s by destabilizing the traditional subject of both science and nature: the
paradoxically translated yet purified human. In order to unpack discourses around nature/s it
is helpful to turn to fictions and narratives whereif only momentarilythe human
(like the straight or masculine) perspective is neither centralized nor normalized .
Such fictions may be found, I suggest, in feminist sf texts which involve close
encounters with alien ontologies, where questions about nature and human
are brought to the fore, including how both are variously sexualized .

The desire to manage spaces privileges a particular notion of


the ideal citizen against which all other subjects are measured
this narrative ultimately culminates in war and imperialist
domination.
Winnubst 06, philosophy PhD, Penn State University. Shannon, Queering Freedom 2006. p 5-6 AJM GoogleBooks
This is the domination and violence of our historical present, late modernity: to reduce our lives so
completely to the order of instrumental reason that we cannot conceive of any political or
philosophical problem without reducing it to that narrow conception of reason. This renders us captive to
presuppositions which assume that solutions to problems must follow the same temporal register as the posing of
the problem itselfi.e., that they must appear immediately effective and useful if we are to recognize them as
solutions at all. But what if these are only truncated, shortsighted views? What if a vital resistance to politics of
domination comes through freeing ourselves from these closed economies of late modernity and their
clearly demarcated, controlled, mastered, and useful ends ? What if a vital resistance to politics of
domination requires a temporal register other than that of immediate and clear efficacy? As Bataille tells us
sympathetically, It is not easy to realize ones own ends if one must, in trying to do so, carry out a movement that
surpasses them (1988-91, 1:21). His orientation toward general economies asks us to think differently from the
habituated patterns of our historical present. In his language, this historical present is characterized by the fact
that judgments concerning the general situation proceed from a particular point of view (1988-91, 1:39). This
particularity can be outlined, described, pinned down, and its blind spots excavated: I attempt to do so in this text.
But to think generally from and about the historical present may lead us into different questions and different
orientations: it has led me to query systems of domination through the registers of temporality and spatiality, while
framing them through the identity categories (race, gender, sexuality, class, religion) that are their most explicit
historical tools. For example, how does the temporality of a persistent future orientation ground systems
of racism, sexism, and heterosexism? What assumptions about the ontology of space allow for the
biological conception of race that grounds racism, or of sex that grounds sexism and heterosexism?
Bataille warns us that, if we do not learn to think in this counter-cultural register of general economy, we will always
be subordinated to the violent and even catastrophic expressions of the excess, abundant energy of the planet,
such as war and imperialist domination . We do have a choice in this matter. But that choice is not one which
will derive from calculating our interest, analyzing the specific problem, or charting the solution: it will not derive
from the domains of instrumental reason and its persistent mandate of utility. It may, rather, involve
recuperating senses of freedom lost to us in late modernity, where nation-states promise freedom as
the facile liberation from subservience and mastery as the domination of nature and culture. To think
generally may lead toward sensing freedom as a dangerous breaking loose a will to assume those risks without
which there is no freedom (1988-91, 1:38). It is toward recuperating these more general senses of freedom, which
Bataille signifies as sovereign and I signify as queer in this historical period of late modernity and phallicized
whiteness, that this text moves.

The alternative is to queer nature in the debate space--The


intersection of ecological criticism and queer theory
OVERTURNS the FANTASY OF NATURE. Our era necessitates
strategies that move beyond passive and active DESTRUCTION
of the non-human. Queering ecology DISTORTS gender binaries
that construct the world in terms of PARANOIA and
ESSENTIALISM. We must move beyond current veins in feminist
thought, WEDDED TO BIOLOGY, that mirror the MASCULINITY
present within American ideals. To exclude the environment
from our own social locations is to endorse SOCIAL
EXCLUSIONS. Repudiating dirt and pollution finds its corollary
in VOMITING AND EXCRETING OUT the socially undesirable. The
natural world MUST BE BROUGHT CLOSE and made INTIMATE.
Morton 10
Timothy Morton is the Professor and Rita Shea Guffey Chair in English at Rice University, he was
written extensively on metaphysics, realism, ecology, and object-oriented ontology, Guest Column:
Queer Ecology, 2010, Journal of the Modern Language Association of America, Vol. 125, No. 2,
file:///Users/joesmith/Downloads/pmlamorton2010-libre.pdf

ECOLOGICAL CRITICISM AND QUEER THEORY SEEM INCOMPATIBLE, but if they


met, there would be a fantastic explosion. How shall we accomplish this
perverse, Frankensteinian meme splice? Ill propose some hypothetical methods and
frameworks for a field that doesnt quite existqueer ecology. The pathbreaking work of Catriona

This exercise in
hubris is bound to rattle nerves and raise hackles , but please bear with me on this test
Sandilands, Greta Gaard, and the journal Undercurrents must be acknowledged here.)

light. Start with the basics. Lets not create this field by comparing literary-critical apples and oranges. Lets
do it the hard way, up from foundations (or unfoundations). Lets do it in the name of ecology itself, which
demands intimacies with other beings that queer theory also demands, in another key. Lets do it because

our era requires it we are losing touch with a fantasy Nature that never really
existed (I capitalize Nature to make it look less natural), while we actively and passively
destroy life-forms inhabiting and constituting the bio-sphere, in Earths sixth
mass extinction event. Giving up a fantasy is even harder than giving up a
reality. At Christmas 2008, Pope Benedict XVI declared that if tropical forests deserve our protection,
then the human being (denied as man and woman) deserves it no less: We need something like

To
undermine the false dichotomy of Nature and history on which papal
homophobia depends, scholarship must research the ways in which queerness,
in its variegated forms, is installed in biological substance as such and is not
simply a blip in cultural history.2 Unfortunately, a great deal of ecocriticism
provides a toxic environment in which to spawn queer ecology. Ecofeminism
(the classic example is Carolyn Merchants he Death of Nature) arose out of feminist separatism,
wedded to a biological essentialism that, strategic or not, is grounded on
binary difference and thus unhelpful for the kinds of difference multiplication
that is queer theorys brilliance. Much American ecocriticism is a vector for
various masculinity memes, including rugged individualism, a phallic
authoritarian sublime, and an allergy to femininity in all its forms (as sheer
human ecology, meant in the right way. His proclamation explicitly targeted gender theory.

appearance, as the signifier, as display). Other environmentalisms (such as ecophenomenology, as practiced

by Kate Rigby, Glen Mazis, and others) are more promising for their flexible, experiential view that Nature is
a process, not a productbut I worry that they might just be upgrades. Judith Butler makes a case for queer

heterosexist gender performance produces a


metaphysical manifold that separates inside from outside. The insideoutside manifold is fundamental for thinking the environment as a
metaphysical, closed systemNature. This is impossible to construe without
violence. Using Mary Douglass Purity and Danger and Julia Kristevas Powers of Horror, Butler
demonstrates that the inside-outside manifold sustains gender identification and
rituals of exclusion that can never be totally successfulthe body just isnt an
impermeable, closed form (Gender Trouble 13334). Butler also holds that nature as such be
ecology, because she shows how

thoroughly revised through ecological notions of interrelatedness (Bodies 4). As Ive argued elsewhere,
ideologies of Nature are founded on inside-outside structures that resemble the boundaries heterosexism
polices (Ecology 19, 25, 40, 5254, 6364, 67, 78; Eco- logocentrism). All life-forms, along with the
environments they compose and inhabit, defy boundaries between inside and outside at every level. When

When the
environment becomes intimateas in our age of ecological panic and
scientifically measurable risk (Beck)it is decisively no longer an environment,
since it no longer just happens around us: thats the difference between
weather and climate. Human society used to define itself by excluding dirt and
pollution. We cannot now endorse this exclusion, nor can we believe in the
world it produces. This is literally about realizing where your waste goes.
Excluding pollution is part of performing Nature as pristine, wild, immediate,
and pure. To have subjects and objects, one must have abjects to vomit or
excrete (Kristeva). By repressing the abject, environmentalismsI am not de- noting particular
we examine the environment, it shimmers, and figures emerge in a strange distortion.3

movements but suggesting affinities with, say, heterosexism or racism claiming to subvert or reconcile the
subject- object manifold only produce a new and improved brand of Nature.

Warming
a rogue nuclear state. The effect on the world could be incredibly destabilizing.

Ignorance guides the belief that other countries acquiesce to


US ideas. Multiple internals prove. Historical traditions,
worldviews, economics, military, and political differences.
Modelling claims oversimplified and ignore complexity of IR
James R. Holmes The Diplomat September 21, 2014 Can America Save
the World Order?
For Kissinger the bottom line seems to be that the United States should accept that its vision of a law-based
international order commands grudging support at best in parts of the world. This runs contrary to
traditional ways of thinking. Over a century ago, for instance, Theodore Roosevelt implored advanced nations to
exercise an international police power. They should keep order in their environs while shepherding developing
nations into the advanced world. Franklin Roosevelt envisioned Four Policemen during the closing stages of World
War II. FDR, that is, hoped the victors would act as international lawmen. And indeed, the Big Four the United
States, Great Britain, the Soviet Union, and China, joined by liberated France became the permanent five
members of the UN Security Council. Council members supposedly combined enlightenment with material power,
furthering the common purposes codified in the UN Charter. Makes perfect sense, doesnt it? But the Roosevelts and
kindred world-order enthusiasts assumed that international lawmen would enforce a common body of laws.
Deadlock in the Security Council has been commonplace since the United Nations inception at San Francisco. What
if the forefathers of world order were wrong? What if each great power entertains a different worldview? If
so, what happens at the seams between jurisdictions, what happens when police quarrel over where jurisdictional
boundaries lie, and what happens when one policemen meddles in anothers precinct? Trouble. This
seems to be the trouble Kissinger is grappling with. He reminds us that China, India, Russia have their own
traditions and histories. Dissimilar origins begat distinct views about what rules and precepts should
govern the international system. They went along to get along after World War II, when the United States
fabricated the current system of international law and institutions. Some among them, though, never grokked the
Western-derived ruleset. It was an import, commanding middling allegiance at best. Notes Kissinger, vast
regions of the world have never shared and only acquiesced in the Western concept of order. They
need no longer acquiesce. New strategic vistas are opening before these nations as they amass great
power. Economic growth gives rise to military power and political clout. Ambitions often swell as
power does. Newly ascendant, newly confident powers, accordingly, may well try to enact rulesets of
their own in their near abroads if not beyond. A blend of defensive and offensive instincts fuels such
policies. Woodrow Wilson wanted to make the world safe for democracy, both to protect America and because he
believed democracy was so darned good for everyone. Defense, offense. Russia might want to make the world
safe for oligarchy, 0China for well, whatever China happens to fancy at the moment or Brazil for
thongs and 24/7/365 partying. What have you. In short, such powers will not embrace the American way just
because Americans think they should.

Turn Plan pushes for US vision of world order that destroys


military and diplomatic power leading to disaster. Plan makes
effective IR impossible. Turns case.
James R. Holmes The Diplomat September 21, 2014 Can America Save
the World Order?
So much for the problem; whats the solution? Lets appraise Kissingers vision as a campaign. Carl von Clausewitz
teaches that grasping the nature of an undertaking is the first, the most basic, the most sweeping act of statecraft.
If you dont map out the surroundings, you have little way to know which route to take, what hazards may obstruct
your passage, or even when youve reached your destination. First of all, this will be a long campaign. Rallying
sincere support for truth, justice, and the American way constitutes a project of indefinite duration. Kissinger prods
ordinary Americans and their leaders to acknowledge this. Remaking the world means changing ideas and
attitudes. In a sense, furthermore, it may mean de-Americanizing notions of world order. Its human nature to bridle
at ideas and mores foisted on us by outsiders. Convincing others that the vision of world order propounded by the
United States isnt self-serving or vaguely menacing will let unlike societies claim ownership of it. That will take time
which is why TR despaired that the golden age he envisaged remained eons distant. Next, Kissingers quest
wont be a static thing. Dynamism will be its watchword. Like any quest, moreover, its apt to encounter resistance.
Formidable opponents may conclude that world order, American style, works against their interests,

their ideals, or both. Nor are prospective spoilers potted plants, inert masses on which Washington and its allies
work their will. They may try to balk, coopt, or corrupt the quest. Assuming it remains steadfast, America
will reassess and adapt prompting antagonists to take countermeasures of their own. And back and
forth it will go. Reversals, re-reversals, and re-re-reversals of fortune will be commonplace in this
interactive, open-ended twilight struggle. Where do we stand at present? Kissinger seems to think the postWorld War II campaign for world order crested around the turn of the century. If so, the United States, its allies, and
its friends now find themselves on the defensive if not in retreat. But at the same time, Kissinger seems to think
America can commence its quest for world order now, as though its a brand-new venture. His countryman
Clausewitz would dissent. Heres why. Think about Clausewitzs concepts of the culminating points of victory and
the attack. When one belligerent instigates offensive action say, by invading a neighbor it builds up to
some maximum margin of military advantage. That is also its maximum margin of diplomatic advantage, an
interval when it can wring the most from a reeling opponent at the bargaining table. Past the culminating point,
though, the defender narrows the margin of supremacy. It reacts and innovates, sapping momentum
and resources from the offensive. Ultimately, barring imaginative leadership on the attackers part, the margin
may dwindle to zero. Worse, the combatant that opened the campaign may find itself the weaker
contender. That courts disaster. A material and political deficit stares you in the face past the
culminating point of the attack. Figuring out how to regain momentum is imperative. This rhythm of the
battlefield applies, if somewhat metaphorically, to Kissingers realm of political interactions as well. The United
States launched its world-order offensive in the 1940s, and Kissinger seems to think it reached its
culminating point of victory around 2000. That history still counts. So do trendlines in the offensive. If you
plotted the success of the world-order project along a curve, it would reach its maximum circa 2000, using
Kissingers estimate, before tipping into decline. The curves negative slope would reveal visually how U.S.
diplomatic say-so has faltered since then. Its doubtful in the extreme, then, Washington can begin with a
blank slate. Regaining lost momentum bending that curve upward again, toward victory is harder than
starting anew. How can U.S. leaders retake the offensive? Persuasion constant diplomatic discourse certainly
must be part of their strategy. But rebuilding the nations prosperity and renewing its military strength are just as
crucial to restoring Americas mojo. This too is a never-ending endeavor. As a great man once said, people love a
winner and despise a loser. If Americas scheme for world order delivers the goods, measured in peace and plenty,
it will find favor among foreign audiences. If not, U.S. entreaties will fall on deaf ears. Which leads to a parting
Clausewitzian word. There are no sure things in enterprises that engage clashing human wills. The outcome of
Kissingers project is far from preordained. It will demand constant, painstaking labor over the course of
generations.

1-5 takes 1:30, all 3 turns take 1:35 that means 3:05 combined (also Im fast)

1. WARMING IS NOT ANTHROPOGENIC AND AEROSOLS SOLVE


THE IMPACT
NIPCC 13 international network of climate scientists, cites hundreds of peer-reviewed scientific papers,
this report cites 35 contributors and reviewers from 14 countries and peer-reviewed signatures from 31,478
scientists (Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical
Science, September 17, 2013,http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Chapter-2-Forcings-andFeedbacks.pdf) //SS

Understanding how Earths clouds respond to anthropogenic-induced perturbations


of the atmosphere is of paramount importance in determining the impact of the
ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content on global climate. Both naturally occurring and manmade
aerosols have a strong influence on cloud albedo (solar reflectance) and Forcings and
Feedbacks 185 cloud cover, with a global mean thermal forcing estimated to be of
approximately the same magnitude as that of mankinds production of greenhouse
gases, but of opposite sign. The following subsections present brief reviews of a number of scientific papers that
address these important subjects. Additional information can be found in related subjects
treated in this volume, including the inadequacies of climate models in dealing with
clouds and the climatic influence of aerosols (see Chapter 1). 2.4.1 Albedo Perhaps the best-known
imputed impact of mankind on climate is the enhancement of the atmospheres greenhouse effect said to be
produced by the carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, gas, and

There are, however, several other ways in which human activities are believed to
influence Earths climate, and many of these phenomena tend to cool the
oil.

globe, primarily by enhancing its albedo, or reflectance of incoming solar radiation. Ferek et
al. (1998), for example, observed an increase in the reflectance of solar radiation from clouds
exposed to the airborne effluents of ships, while Capaldo et al. (1999) determined this
phenomenon creates a significant cooling influence over water surfaces in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.
Facchini et al. (1999) report organic solutes evolving from agricultural/industrial regions tend to enhance cloud

clouds droplets are the most important factor


controlling the albedo (reflectivity) and hence the temperature of our planet , and
manmade aerosols have a strong influence on cloud albedo, with a global mean
forcing estimated to be of the same order (but opposite in sign) as that of greenhouse
gases. Even a small change in cloud properties could determine whether the
combined influence of anthropogenic activities results in a net warming or cooling of
the planet. The results of several empirical studies led Charlson et al. to conclude the anthropogenic
impetus for cooling may be even larger than anticipated . He and his colleagues
point out the early IPCC assessments of the situation do not include the
combined influences of some recently identified chemical factors, each of
which leads to additional negative forcing (cooling) on top of that
currently estimated. They write, It has recently become clear that soluble gases, slightly soluble
solutes [aerosols], and surface tension depression by organic substances also influence the formation
of cloud droplets. The ways in which mankinds activities influence these processes tend to
produce extra cloud cooling power that is nowhere to be found in early IPCC analyses of cloud effects
reflectance over land. Charlson et al. (2001) note

on climate. Consider, for example, the original hypothesis developed by Charlson et al. (1987), which has inspired

biology plays an integral role in


mitigating global warming. This scenario begins with an initial impetus for warming
that stimulates primary production in marine phytoplankton, which results in the production
of more copious quantities of dimethylsulphoniopropionate (DMSP), which leads to the evolution of
greater amounts of dimethyl sulphide (DMS) in the surface waters of the worlds oceans. The DMS
diffuses into the atmosphere, where it is oxidized, which leads to the creation of
acidic aerosols that function as cloud condensation nuclei. Those nuclei create more and
brighter clouds of higher albedo , which reflect more incoming solar radiation back to space, which
cools the planet and thereby counters the initial impetus for warming . Simo and Pedrosliterally hundreds of subsequent confirmatory studies, wherein

Alio (1999) added even more complexity to this scenario by describing a number of short-term photo-induced (and,
therefore, mixingdepth mediated) influences on several complex physiological phenomena manifest in marine
phytoplankton, as well as longer-term variations in vertical mixing that influence planktonic succession and foodweb structure. Ayers and Gillett (2000) summarized empirical evidence in support of Charlson et al.s hypothesis
obtained from data collected at Cape Grim, Tasmania since 1988, as well as from what has been reported in prior

there is compelling observational evidence to


suggest that DMS and its atmospheric products participate significantly in processes
of climate regulation and reactive atmospheric chemistry in the remote marine boundary layer. Sciare et
studies of the subject. They too conclude

al. (2000) made continuous measurements of atmospheric DMS concentration and a number of environmental
parameters from 1990 to 1999 at Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean, finding a clear seasonal variation
with a factor of 20 difference in amplitude between the maximum atmospheric DMS concentration in austral
summer and the minimum in austral winter. The DMS Climate Change Reconsidered II 186 anomalies were found to
be closely related to sea surface temperature anomalies, clearly indicating a link between DMS and climate
changes. They found a sea surface temperature increase of only 1C was sufficient to increase the atmospheric
DMS concentration by as much as 50 percent on a monthly basis, providing what they called a very important
albedo-moderated negative feedback on the original impetus for warming. (DMS will be discussed more thoroughly

COS, carbonyl sulfide, which operates in a somewhat


similar albedoenhancing fashion over land. COS is the most stable and abundant reduced sulfur
gas in the atmosphere and a major player in determining Earths radiation balance .
later in this chapter.) In addition to DMS, there is

After making its way into the stratosphere, it can be photo-dissociated, as well as oxidized, to form SO2, which is

aerosol particles that are highly reflective of incoming solar


radiation and, therefore, have the capacity to significantly cool Earth . Like DMS, COS is
typically converted to sulfate

heavily influenced by planetary biology. In a study of COS uptake by a lichen species found in an open-oak
woodland in central California, Kuhn and Kesselmeier (2000) observed the rate of absorption of COS from the
atmosphere by this species declined dramatically once air temperature rose above 25C. Thus, when temperatures
begin to become uncomfortably warm for this and many other species of plants (and animals), more COS remains in
the air, which increases the potential for more of it to make its way into the stratosphere, where it can be converted
into sulfate aerosol particles that can reflect more incoming solar radiation back to space and thereby cool Earth.
Since the consumption of COS by lichens is under the physiological control of carbonic anhydrasethe key enzyme
for COS uptake in all higher plants, algae, and soil organismsone could expect this phenomenon to be generally
operative over much of the planet, which it is. This biological thermostat may be powerful enough to define an
upper limit above which the surface air temperature of Earth may be restricted from rising, even when changes in
other forcing factors, such as greenhouse gases, produce a substantial impetus for warming. (COS will be discussed
more completely later in this chapter.) That several of the above-described phenomena, as well as others yet to be
elucidated, may be occurring at the present time is suggested by the study of Herman et al. (2001), who used
satellite data to determine changes in radiation reflected back to space over the period 1979 to 1992. Their data
indicate there have been increases in reflectivity (cloudiness) poleward of 40N and 30S, with some smaller but
significant changes occurring in the equatorial and lower middle latitudes. And they state the overall long-term
effect is for an increase in radiation reflected back to space of 2.8 W m-2 per decade, from which they conclude,
there is a likely cooling effect provided by changes in the amount of snow/ice, cloudiness, and aerosols. One
year later, Chou et al. (2002) analyzed aerosol optical properties retrieved from the satellitemounted Sea-viewing
Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and used them in conjunction with a radiative transfer model of the planets
atmosphere to calculate the climatic effects of aerosols over Earths oceans. They found aerosols reduce the
annual-mean net downward solar flux by 5.4 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere, and by 5.9 W m-2 at the surface.
During the large Indonesian fires of SeptemberDecember 1997, however, the radiative impetus for cooling at the
top of the atmosphere was more than 10 W m-2, and it was more than 25 W m-2 at the surface of the sea in the
vicinity of Indonesia. The magnitude of the radiative warming impetus predicted at the start of the global warming
controversy to occur in response to a nominal doubling of the airs CO2 content is about 4 W m-2, less than what
researchers have found to be the radiative cooling effect of atmospheric aerosols. Thus over the majority of the

the radiative cooling influence of atmospheric aerosols (many of which are


likely prevails, suggesting a probable net
anthropogenic-induced climatic signal that must be very close to zero and nowhere
near capable of producing what the IPCC refers to as the unprecedented warming of
the twentieth century. Breon et al. (2002) assessed the effects of atmospheric aerosols around the globe on
planets surface,

produced by anthropogenic activities)

cloud microphysics via data on aerosol concentration and cloud droplet radii obtained from the polarization and
directionality of the Earth reflectances (POLDER) instrument on the Advanced Earth-Observing Satellite (ADEOS),

the studys results


clearly demonstrate a significant impact of aerosols on cloud microphysics. As
which began operation on 30 October 1996 and ended on 30 June 1997. In their words,

aerosol concentrations increased, cloud droplet radii decreased, which should produce a cooling influence due to
the greater albedo generally associated with smaller cloud droplets. The researchers also Forcings and Feedbacks
187 determined the

bulk of the aerosol load originates from slash-and-burn


agriculture practices and from highly polluted areas , such that a large fraction of the
observed aerosol effect on clouds is probably of anthropogenic origin. Although Breon et al. were unable to
quantify the degree of cooling provided by the presence of the aerosols they studied, they nevertheless concluded
this anthropogenic counterforce to the warming impetus provided by the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content is
significant and occurs on a global scale. Several natural and anthropogenic-induced negative feedbacks clearly
are capable of maintaining the climate of the globe within a temperature range conducive to the continued well-

Many of these feedbacks have yet to receive the


attention they merit from the IPCC.
being of all forms of life on Earth.

2. Double bind Either their impacts dont happen for years


and you evaluate negative impacts first or their impacts
happen too soon for the affirmative to solve for

3. Going past the tipping point is inevitable other countries


wont reduce emissions
Laura Barron-Lopez 09/08/14 Report: Globe could pass UN warming target
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/216991-report-globe-on-course-to-surpass-un-warming-target

the globe is set to surpass the United Nations's


(U.N.) temperature target, hitting roughly 4 degrees Celsius, according to a new report. The
If carbon emissions continue at current rates,

sixth Low Carbon Economy report by international consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) released late
Sunday estimates the current rate of carbon emissions will "burn" through the 2 degrees Celsius marker set by the

If countries are unable to reach an ambitious


agreement during next year's climate talks in Paris , the global average temperature
will hit an increase of 3.4 to 4.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, the report states. That
means global leaders and corporations need to ensure carbon emissions are cut five
times faster than the current rate every year from now until 2100 , PwC said. "This stark
message comes in the run up to a critical series of climate negotiations, kicking off in New York and Lima in late
2014, then moving to Paris by December 2015 for the COP21 Summit, widely thought of as the last
chance to secure a global agreement on action on climate change ," Leo Johnson, partner
with PwC, said in the report. Scientists warn that if the average global temperature passes 2
degrees Celsius, global warming will increase drastically and feed "runaway" climate
change. PwC says while more needs to be done and fast the E7 group of emerging economies is doing
U.N. within 20 years. ADVERTISEMENT

substantially more to grow its "green" economy and cut emissions.

The report states the E7 group of countries,

China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey, did more work
last year to cut carbon intensity than the Group of Seven, or G7, nations. The carbon intensity
which includes

measurement means countries were able to boost economic growth while cutting back carbon dioxide emissions
from fossil fuels. The G7, which include the U.S., Germany and Japan, cut intensity 0.2 percent. "This indicates
the possibility of the E7 maintaining economic growth while slowing the rate of growth in their emissions," the
report states. "As the main manufacturing hubs of the world, the E7 economies currently have total carbon
emissions 1.5 times larger than that of the G7, a figure expected to grow." PwC said that would be a critical
development if the E7 nations could maintain that progress. It's the first time the group has outpaced the G7
countries in maintaining economic growth while cutting back emissions. The report also highlights the rapid growth
of renewable energy sources as a reason behind the improvement by emerging economies. Renewables currently
make up 22 percent of the global electricity supply, according to the International Energy Agency, and are expected
to grow. In the U.S., however, President Obama's climate agenda has been met with fierce opposition from
Republicans in Congress, who have centered their fight to take control of the Senate around what they are calling
the administration's "war on coal." Recent reports also warn that negotiations in Paris next year to sign a global
climate change treaty are unlikely to be ambitious enough to stay within the 2 degrees Celsius threshold.

4. We will adapt the Earth is in a cooling cycle right now and


humans are highly adaptive.
5. Their studies are flawed warming cools the earth and is
good for the environment our ev is based off the best
scholarship
Ashworth 6/18 Bob is a chemical engineer and has presented over 50 technical papers on
fuels and fuel related subjects. Relating to the subject of global warming, he has written two papers,
"CFC Destruction of Ozone - Major Cause of Recent Global Warming" and "No Evidence to Support
Carbon Dioxide Causing Global Warming". He is a member of the American Geophysical Union. He is a
Past Advisor to the University of Pittsburgh International Conference on Coal Conversion. He was
Session Chairman, Coal Gasification, Liquefaction and Conversion to Electricity, Fifth International
Conference, University of Pittsburgh, August 1978. He gave a guest presentation, "Production of
Methanol via Wood Gasification, to Companhia Energtica de Sao Paulo (CESP), and the Technical

Institute of Sao Paulo, Brazil, November 1978. He was Session Chairman, Industrial Wood Utilization
Workshop, "Wood Gasification", Mitre Corporation/U.S. DOE, April 1979. He also gave a guest
presentation to the National Coal Board on coal gasification for combined cycle power generation,
Leatherhead, England, April 1979.
He holds 16 U. S. patents, several of which have been filed and allowed in other countries. ClearStack
is working to commercialize two of the patents, a three-stage oxidation technique that reduces sulfur
dioxide, nitrogen oxides and mercury and a dry scrubber that removes nitrogen and sulfur oxides from
flue gas. In 2001, Governor Paul Patton commissioned him a Kentucky Colonel for his work on clean
coal technology. No such thing as Greenhouse Gases.
http://www.energycentral.com/generationstorage/environmentalemissionsandcarbonmanagement/arti
cles/2926/No-Such-Thing-as-Greenhouse-Gases

It seems persons trying to rid the planet of our conventional fuels ; coal, oil and natural gas,
will go to great lengths of completely lying. First of all, so-called but misnamed
"greenhouse" gases cool the earth - they don't warm it! Also, so-called "green
energy" is not green at all! Any mass between you and a radiant energy source will
provide cooling. Stand near a fireplace that is burning and feel the warmth of the radiant energy; then have
two people drape a blanket between you and the fireplace -- you will feel cooler! Another example, stand outside on

When a cloud goes over and shades you from the direct rays of the sun, most
people feel cooler, but perhaps not the IPCC scientists. Nitrogen, oxygen, water vapor, carbon dioxide and
any dust that is in the atmosphere all provide cooling as well. Why is this? If there were no atmosphere,
all radiant energy from the sun would hit the earth. However, with an atmosphere, a portion of
a sun shiny day.

the incoming sun's rays are absorbed or reflected away from earth by striking the gas molecules and dust particles,
so less radiant energy hits the earth and the earth is cooler because of its atmosphere. Everyone knows that cloud
cover at night (more insulation) prevents the earth from cooling off as fast as it does when there are no clouds.
However this insulating effect is minimal compared to the daytime effect. No rocket science is required here, just

Scientific proof confirms common sense. Everyone knows that cloud cover at night
(more insulation) prevents the earth from cooling off as fast as it does when there
are no clouds. However this insulating effect is minimal compared to the daytime effect. No rocket science is
common sense.

required here, just common sense. Scientific proof confirms common sense. The cooling effect of water vapor in the
stratosphere was proved following the 9-11 terrorist attacks. Atmospheric scientists studied the effect of water
vapor on temperature in the wake of the attacks. The Federal Aviation Administration prohibited commercial
aviation over the United States for three days following the attacks and this presented a unique opportunity to
study the temperature of the earth without airplanes and their contrails. Dr. Travis, an atmospheric scientist at
the University of Wisconsin along with Dr. Carleton, a geologist at Penn State University, looked at how

analyzed
maximum and minimum temperature data from about 4,000 weather stations
throughout the contiguous (48 states) United States for the period 1971-2000. It was found
that the average daily temperature range between highs and lows was around 1.1 oC
higher during September 11-14 with air traffic grounded compared to September 8-11 and September
temperatures for those three days compared to other days when planes were flying. They

11-14 with normal air traffic. The data proved that stratospheric water vapor trails have a net cooling effect and
therefore all other so-called greenhouse gases must have a similar effect because the IPCC says water vapor is the

IPCC and NASA scientists tried to discredit this analysis after it


was made; what else is new about them, their approach is to manipulate or
disregard data to fit their own nefarious goals. An experiment was performed to study the effect of
worst "greenhouse gas".

rising and falling levels of humidity on soil temperature and it was discovered that the addition of moisture to the
atmosphere exerts a significant negative feedback (cooling effect). The experiment showed the same result as the
analysis of the 9-11 data. The data was taken over 38 days so the first thing done was to find the 38 day mean dew
point and divide the days up between those that fell above the mean -- the "humid" days -- and those that fell
below the mean -- the "arid" days. Then the data was averaged as shown on the curves on the graph above. One
can readily see the hotter day time temperatures for the arid days (red line) compared to the cooler humid days

The cooling effect of carbon dioxide because of its relatively low


concentration (some 400 ppmv), compared to water vapor (~1 to 2% in the atmosphere) that you can
measure, has a very slight cooling effect but the effect is so small it cannot be measured. Most of
(blue line).

the misnamed "green" technologies being touted are not green at all and have their
own set of environmental problems of killing many birds, bats, butterflies and fish.
6. Warming doesnt cause extinction IPCC data says its bad

but not an existential threat


Aulakh 7/17/14, (Raveena Aulakh, reporter at the Toronto Star covering the environment,
UN climate body backtracks on risk of species extinction,
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/03/30/un_climate_body_backtracks_on_risk_of_spe
cies_extinction.html, 7/17/14, AC)

Scientists with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change seem to have


quietly backpedalled on the risk of species extinction . In its last assessment
report in 2007, the IPCC said humans had shrunk the habita ts of many life forms
and it predicted that 20 to 30 per cent of all animal and plant species faced a
high risk for extinction if average global temperatures rose by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius.
The UN climate body now says it is no longer as certain . In the new report,
scientists say forecasts of very high extinction rates due entirely to climate
change may be overestimated. While scientists agree that the risk of species
extinction will increase due to climate change, there is low agreement concerning
the fraction of species at increased risk, the regional and taxonomic distribution
of such extinctions and the time frame over which extinctions could occur.
Hence, this new assessment does not include concrete figures about the
percentage of species that could become extinct due to global warming . So is it
all OK for other life forms? Not at all, says Jeremy Kerr, a biologist with the University of
Ottawa. There is a lot of evidence of biological impact (of climate change) but
there is not much evidence of specific extinction , he said. There are
projections, models of what we think could happen in 40 or 50 years, said Kerr.
The problem is they are models, unlike the evidence for climate change, which is
supported by recent past observations in the last several decades, models of
extinction risk have not yet demonstrated that those rates are rising right now.

7. Now our turns


B. Ice Age its coming and only warming can prevent
extinction from it
Didymus 12(John Thomas Didymus, journalist from the Digital Journal, Human carbon dioxide emissions
could prevent next Ice Age, Digital Journal, January 2012.)Accessed online at:
http://digitaljournal.com/print/article/317605#ixzz1w2W7dBCR
A team of scientists say that

high levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could prevent the next

Ice Age. The scientists say that even if carbon emissions stopped today, enough has accumulated in the atmosphere to prevent the next
Ice Age glaciation. The Telegraph reports that according to the team of scientist, in a study published in Nature Geoscience, high levels of

carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that has been source of concern among environmental scientists could prevent
glaciation. The scientists said that at the next Ice Age, the climate will cool down, but not as severely it could have with normal carbon
dioxide levels. According to scientists, the Earth will probably not experience glaciation. The team included scientists from University
College London, the University of Florida and Norway's Bergen University. BBC reported that paleoclimatologist Luke Skinner, from
Cambridge University, said: "At current levels of CO2, even if emissions stopped now we'd probably have a long interglacial duration
determined by whatever long-term processes could kick in and bring [atmospheric] CO2 down." The current level of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere is 390 parts per million. The scientists say that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere will need to drop down to 240 parts per

human carbon
dioxide emission may be beneficial for humankind . The UK lobby group Global Warning Policy
million for glaciation to take place. Some groups, according to BBC, are citing the study as evidence that

Foundation, refers to an essay by Sir Fred Hoyle and Chandra Wickramasinghe, that said: " The

renewal of ice-age
conditions would render a large fraction of the world's major food-growing areas
inoperable, and so would inevitably lead to the extinction of most of the present human population. We

must look to a sustained greenhouse effect to maintain the present advantageous world climate. This
implies the ability to inject effective greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the opposite of what environmentalists
are erroneously advocating."

C. Agriculture Warming is key to agriculture, its the biggest


internal link to crop yields, Africa proves
Taylor, 11

James Taylor, managing editor of Environment & Climate News, a national monthly publication
devoted to sound science and free-market environmentalism with a circulation of approximately 75,000 readers. He
is also senior fellow for The Heartland Institute focusing on environmental issues. Climate Change Weekly: Global
Warming Benefiting Africas Sahel Region http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2011/12/15/climate-changeweekly-global-warming-benefiting-africas-sahel-region Accessed 6/18/12 BJM
Global warming activists are sounding four-alarm fire bells over a new study claiming global warming is causing drought and killing
trees in the Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa. Much like previous claims that have fallen by the wayside, the notion that global
warming is devastating the Sahel is unlikely to stand the dual tests of time and scientific scrutiny. According to the new study, a rise
in temperatures and a decline in precipitation during the 20th century reduced tree densities in the Sahel by approximately 18
percent from 1954 through 2002. Lead author Patrick Gonzalez says in a press release accompanying the study, Rainfall in the
Sahel has dropped 20-30 percent in the 20th century At first glance, the study and accompanying press release might present a
persuasive argument for Western democracies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Then again, the argument that Western
democracies should reduce carbon dioxide emissions may have been driving the study , rather than the other way around. Lead
author Gonzalez is also a lead author for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose funding and
very existence are dependent on the assertion that humans are causing a global warming crisis. Moreover, IPCC is on record
claiming global warming is causing an increase in drought, so having a new study claiming global warming is causing drought and
related problems in Africas Sahel region bolsters the shared interests of Gonzalez and IPCC. Gonzalez also spent half of the past
decade as a staffer for the Nature Conservancy environmental activist group. The Nature Conservancy is one of the most vocal
proponents of global warming alarmism and has also long asserted Western democracies must dramatically reduce carbon dioxide
emissions. Further, NASA and the U.S. Geological Survey funded the study. If such funded studies find little about which to be
concerned, NASA and U.S. Geological Survey funds dry up, as do funds for Gonzalez and his National Park Service employers. This
is not to say that readers should dismiss out of hand a study published by a Nature Conservancy staffer and United Nations
representative with clear incentives to conclude global warming is causing drought and tree deaths. Such a background and
incentives should, however, cause readers to look a little more deeply at the facts before accepting the studys conclusions at face
value. Turning to the science, assertions that global warming is causing drought and tree deaths in the Sahel is surprising news to
many scientists and Sahel observers. The Sahel is a relatively narrow band of land stretching east-west across the African continent
at the southern edge of the Sahara Desert. Contrary to what Gonzalez reports in his new study, many studies have documented
improving conditions in the Sahel as the earth has warmed. The southern Saharan desert is in retreat, making farming viable again
in what were some of the most arid parts of Africa, New Scientist reported in 2002 (http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2811africas-deserts-are-in-spectacular-retreat.html). Burkina Faso, one of the West African countries devastated by drought and
advancing deserts 20 years ago, is growing so much greener that families who fled to wetter coastal regions are starting to go home.
An analysis of satellite images completed this summer reveals that dunes are retreating right across the Sahel region on the
southern edge of the Sahara desert, New Scientist explained. Vegetation is ousting sand across a swathe of land stretching from
Mauritania on the shores of the Atlantic to Eritrea 6000 kilometres away on the Red Sea coast. Nor is it just a short-term trend.
Analysts say the gradual greening has been happening since the mid-1980s. There are more trees for firewood and more grassland
for livestock. And a survey among farmers shows a 70 per cent increase in yields of local cereals such as sorghum and millet in one
province in recent years, New Scientist added. These trends have continued throughout the past decade. In 2009 scientists at
Boston University used satellite data to study African vegetation patterns since the mid-1990s. As reported by BBC News, satellite
images from the last 15 years do seem to show a recovery of vegetation in the Southern Sahara. The broader picture is reinforced
by studies carried out in the Namib Desert in Namibia, BBC News added. This is a region with an average rainfall of just 12
millimetres per year what scientists call hyper-arid. Scientists have been measuring rainfall here for the last 60 years. Last year
the local research centre, called Gobabeb, measured 80mm of rain. Scientists at Brown University and the University of MinnesotaDuluth confirmed a longer term improvement in African soil moisture. After studying African drought patterns since the 1400s, the
scientists reported in January 2007 in the peer-reviewed science journal Geology that Africa is experiencing an unusually prolonged
period of stable, wet conditions in comparison to previous centuries of the past millennium. Moreover, the patterns and variability
of twentieth-century rainfall in central Africa have been unusually conducive to human welfare in the context of the past 1400 yr,
the scientists explained. The same patterns are occurring globally. Analyzing satellite imagery that has been available since 1982,
scientists reported in a 2003 peer-reviewed study in Science, We present a global investigation of vegetation responses to climatic
changes by analyzing 18 years (1982 to 1999) of both climatic data and satellite observations of vegetation activity. Our results
indicate that global changes in climate have eased several critical climatic constraints to plant growth , such that net primary
production increased 6% (3.4 petagrams of carbon over 18 years) globally. With so many studies and data indicating global
warming is benefiting soil moisture, plant growth and forest expansion in the Sahel region, Africa as a whole and globally, the new
assertion that global warming is causing a climate crisis in the Sahel is speculative and controversial at best. Perhaps Gonzalez

inadvertently revealed the true purpose of his new study when he concluded his press release by saying, We in the U.S. and other
industrialized nations have it in our power, with current technologies and practices, to avert more drastic impacts around the world
by reducing our greenhouse gas emissions. This is certainly something we would expect a Nature Conservancy staffer and United
Nations representative to say.

Crop yields solve extinction- environmental crisis and nuclear


war
Luger, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2k
(Richard, US Senator from Indiana, and a member and former chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, 2000,
Plant power, http://www.ourplanet.com/imgversn/143/lugar.html, 3/15/13, atl)
In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East, burgeoning nuclear threats and other crises, it is easy to lose
sight of the long-range challenges. But we do so at our peril. One of the most daunting of them is meeting the worlds need
for food and energy in this century. At stake is not only preventing starvation and saving the environment , but

also world peace and security. History tells us that states may go to war over access to resources, and that
poverty and famine have often bred fanaticism and terrorism . Working to feed the world will minimize
factors that contribute to global instability and the proliferation of [WMDs ] weapons of mass
destruction. With the world population expected to grow from 6 billion people today to 9 billion by mid-century, the
demand for affordable food will increase well beyond current international production levels. People in rapidly
developing nations will have the means greatly to improve their standard of living and caloric intake. Inevitably, that means eating
more meat. This will raise demand for feed grain at the same time that the growing world population will need vastly more basic
food to eat. Complicating a solution to this problem is a dynamic that must be better understood in the West: developing countries
often use limited arable land to expand cities to house their growing populations. As good land disappears, people destroy

timber resources and even rainforests as they try to create more arable land to feed themselves. The
long-term environmental consequences could be disastrous for the entire globe . Productivity revolution To
meet the expected demand for food over the next 50 years, we in the United States will have to grow roughly
three times more food on the land we have. Thats a tall order. My farm in Marion County, Indiana, for example, yields on
average 8.3 to 8.6 tonnes of corn per hectare typical for a farm in central Indiana. To triple our production by 2050, we will have to
produce an annual average of 25 tonnes per hectare. Can we possibly boost output that much? Well, its been done before.
Advances in the use of fertilizer and water, improved machinery and better tilling techniques combined to generate a threefold
increase in yields since 1935 on our farm back then, my dad produced 2.8 to 3 tonnes per hectare. Much US agriculture has seen
similar increases. But of course there is no guarantee that we can achieve those results again. Given the urgency of expanding food
production to meet world demand, we must invest much more in scientific research and target that money toward projects that
promise to have significant national and global impact. For the United States, that will mean a major shift in the way we conduct and
fund agricultural science. Fundamental research will generate the innovations that will be necessary to feed the world. The United
States can take a leading position in a productivity revolution. And our success at increasing food production

may play a decisive humanitarian role in the survival of billions of people and the health of our planet .

D. Pakistan Elevated CO2 key to cotton


Kakani et al 04 Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Mississippi State University, Department of Plant and Soil
Sciences, Mississippi State University, Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Mississippi State University, and
USDA UV-B Monitoring and Research Program, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University,
Fort Collins (Vijaya Gopal Kakani, Kambham Raja Reddy, Duli Zhao and Wei Gao, 2004, Senescence and
hyperspectral reflectance of cotton leaves exposed to
ultraviolet-B radiation and carbon dioxide, PHYSIOLOGIA PLANTARUM 121: 250257. 2004, pubmed.gov | JJ)

Considerable growth and developmental variations occur in plants exposed to UV-B radiation and atmospheric [CO2 ]. Selection of leaves from a
plant at different node positions provided us with leaves that differed in age, and the leaves at same node in different treatments enabled us to
study the effect of different intensities of UV-B radiation and [CO2 ] on leaves of the same age. In cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. cv. DES119),
Sassenrath-Cole et al. (1996) found that changes in leaf photosynthetic responses to light environment during leaf ageing were solely as a result
of physiological changes within the senescing leaf and not the result of photon flux density environment or shading. Decline in photosynthesis
and chlorophyll are early symptoms of senescence, with chloroplasts as one of the primary targets for degradation (Thomas and Stoddart 1980,
Grove and Mohanty 1992). In cotton, remobilization of leaf N to reproductive organs appears to be the principle component leading to
photosynthetic decline (Pettigrew et al. 2000) and the data also suggest that environmental factors can play a role in causing the photosynthetic
decline. In our study, atmospheric [CO2 ] did not alter the senescence as indicated by Pn and chlorophyll pigments. Elevated [CO2 ], however,
increased Pn by 35% similar to that recorded in earlier studies in well-watered and well fertilized conditions (Reddy et al. 1997, 2000). In this

study, at 0 kJ of UV-B and with increase in leafage, a decrease in Pn was recorded with no change in chlorophyll pigments indicating that decline
in Pn is a stimulant for leaf senescence in cotton. The photosynthesis activity below a certain threshold level is known to induce leaf senescence
(Smart 1994, Dai et al. 1999). Hensel et al. (1993) postulated that a decrease in photosynthesis efficiency reduces sugar levels that may be an
early signal for induction of senescence. In the current study, near ambient UV-B radiation (7.7 kJ) reduced the Pn of30day-old leaves by 50%
compared with that at 0 kJ UV-B radiation. In detached maize leaves, senescence induced loss of chlorophyll and photosynthesis was
significantly enhanced by UV-B radiation (Biswal et al. 1997). Under high UV-B of15.1 kJ, the 12-day-old leaves had Pn on par with the 30-dayold leaves in the control treatment. The 21-day-old leaves exposed to high UV-B were on par with the 30-day-old leaves exposed to ambient and
high UV-B, suggesting that these leaves were in a similar senescence phase as a result of their exposure to UV-B radiation. Thus, the UV-B
radiation resulted in accelerated leaf ageing.

Cottons key to the Pakistani economy we control uniqueness


Nadeem et al, 10 - Department o f Agronomy, University o f Agriculture, Faisalabad , Pakistan, 1 = University
College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences , Islamia University, Bahawalpur , Pakistan (Muhammad Ather
Nadeem, Asghar Ali, Muhammad Tahir , Muhammad Naeem 1 , Asim Raza Chadhar and Sagheer Ahmad, 2010,
Effect of Nitrogen Levels and Plant Spacing on Growth and Yield of Cotton, Pakistan Journal of Life and Social
Sciences, Vol. 8 No. 2, http://www.pjlss.edu.pk/sites/default/files/121-124%20(dr.%20Athar%202).pdf | JJ)

Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is considered as mainstay of Pakistans economy. It is an important cash crop, major source of foreign exchange
and plays an important role in agriculture, industry and economic development of the country. In Pakistan cotton is grown on an area is 3.22
million hectares with total production of 12417 thousand bales and average seed cotton yield of 732 kg ha -1 (Anonymous, 2007). Despite of
concerted efforts of breeders and agronomists, yield per unit area is still far below from many other cotton producing countries of the world. Low
yield of cotton in Pakistan is attributed to some production as well as economic constraints. Poor quality seed, low seed rate, low plant
population, poor management or agronomic practices, conventional sowing methods, imbalanced fertilizer application, weed infestation and
insect attack are main causes of its low yield. In cotton plant, spacing has effects on the growth and yield characteristics of the plant. Plant
population (density) is very important for attaining optimum crop growth and yield under irrigated conditions. Mostly, farmers maintain plant
spacing and density according to their traditional methods of planting rather than variety requirement and hence do not obtain the high crop yield.
Hussain et al. (2000) reported that 30 cm spacing between cotton plants increased plant height, number of bolls per plant and boll weight as
compared to 10 cm and 20 cm. However, plant spacing did not affect ginning out turn or fiber quality. On the other hand Muhammad et al. (2002)
found that boll weight decreased by increasing plant population. The field conditions that produce short stature plants can generally tolerate
higher plant density without incurring significant yield reduction (Hake et al., 1991). Adequate plant population facilitates the efficient use of
applied fertilizers and irrigation (Abbas, 2000). When density is low, fruiting branches are longer and a greater percentage of bolls are produced
on outer position of fruiting branches but first position bolls produced by high density are the biggest and best resulting in high yield. Fruit
initiation was influenced by plant density in upland cotton (Buxton et al., 1977).

Nuclear War
Guthrie 2k (Grant, J.D. candidate, 2000, University of California, Hastings College of the Law., Hastings International and Comparative
Law Review Nuclear Testing Rocks the Sub-Continent: Can International Law Halt the Impending Nuclear Conflict Between India and
Pakistan? Spring/Summer 2000, pg lexis wyo-ef)
Nuclear testing creates political instability because it requires a substantial economic investment . One, small fission device typically costs five million
U.S. dollars to manufacture. 84 Pakistan's economy is fragile already. 85 Pakistan's total budget for 1996-1997 was $ 12.5 [*503] billion, out of which 45
percent was spent on debt service and 24 percent on defense. 86 If Pakistan begins increasing its defense budget there will be nothing left for its
people. 87 The spending effects of continued nuclear tests might bankrupt the Pakistani economy. One day, the Pakistani government might be
forced to sell nuclear fuel, nuclear weapons or nuclear technology to generate capital. Uncontrollable nuclear proliferation could ensue and the
world political regime might become destabilized. There are strong political forces contending for control of Pakistan. 88 Pakistan has been ruled
on and off by the military for half of its history. 89 In October of 1999, Pakistan's democratically elected government was overthrown and traded for a military
regime. 90 If Pakistan's political climate does not eventually stabilize, Pakistan may become divided and compartmentalized, like a warlord-ridden,
nuclear Somalia. Each faction would control nuclear weapons and a nuclear civil war could ensue. The world could be at the mercy of

Acidification has only minor effects


Hendriks et al 10

(Iris, C.M. Duarte, and M. Alvarez, Department of Global Change Research


Mediterranean Institute of Advanced Studies, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, Vulnerability of
marine biodiversity to ocean acidification: A meta-analysis, 86(2), January)

The meta-analysis of our database, which includes 372 published experimental evaluations with
control values assembled from literature (Supplementary information Table S1), confirmed that acidification
effects differed considerably across taxonomic groups and functions, but that the magnitude of the
changes were, overall, modest for acidification levels within ranges expected during this century.
Acidification does not occur in isolation, but in concert with other challenges such as warming,
eutrophication, and increased UV radiation. There are, however, few studies examining the interactive effect of
acidification and other direct or indirect results of global change, which may aggravate the effect of ocean
acidification on marine organisms. This analysis suggests that marine biota do not respond uniformly to ocean
acidification. Some experiments report significant impacts for vulnerable taxa at pCO2 values expected within the
21st century, but there was no consistent evidence that suggests biological rates, apart from
calcification for one functional group, the bivalves, might be significantly suppressed across the range
of pCO2 anticipated for the 21st century. Some organisms, particularly autotrophs, even showed
enhanced growth under elevated pCO2. The data do suggest that calcification rate, the most sensitive
process responding directly to ocean acidification (Gattuso et al., 1998 J.P. Gattuso, M. Frankignoulle, I. Bourrge, S.
Romaine and R.W. Buddemeier, Effect of calcium carbonate saturation of seawater on coral calcification, Global and
Planetary Change 18 (1998), pp. 3746. Article | PDF (107 K) | View Record in Scopus | Cited By in Scopus (153)
[Gattuso et al., 1998], [Gazeau et al., 2007], [Leclercq et al., 2000] and [Riebesell et al., 2000]), will decline by,
on average, 25% at elevated pCO2 values of 731759 ppmv. These values will be reached within the 21st century
(IPCC, 2007). However, the 25% decline in biological calcification rates at elevated pCO2 values of
approximately 750 ppmv is likely to be an upper limit, considering that all experiments involve the
abrupt exposure of organisms to elevated pCO2 values, while the gradual increase in pCO2 that is
occurring in nature may allow adaptive and selective processes to operate (Widdicombe et al., 2008). These
gradual changes take place on the scale of decades, permitting adaptation of organisms even
including genetic selection. Short-term experimental results are likely to overestimate the impacts of
acidification rates on marine organisms. The ambition and sophistication of experimental approaches need be
expanded, to assess complex communities, rather than single species, and to assess responses to enhanced CO2
over long terms. Such long-term experiments to observe community responses to long-term exposure to enhanced
CO2 have been successfully conducted for terrestrial systems. Experiments comparable to those conducted on land
(e.g. Httenschwiler et al., 2003), should be planned and conducted. The only such experiment so far available is
the Biosphere 2 experiment, where responses of coral-reef communities included in the ocean biome of the
Biosphere 2 facility were assessed (Atkinson et al., 1999). Also important, most experiments assessed
organisms in isolation, rather than whole communities, whereas the responses within the community
may buffer the impacts. For instance, seagrass photosynthetic rates may increase by 50% with
increased CO2, which may deplete the CO2 pool, maintaining an elevated pH that may protect
associated calcifying organisms from the impacts of ocean acidification

Russia
No contextualization of which terrorists get the nukes. Their
ayson ev is from 2010 and no terrorist have gotten the nukes.
Probably means theirs a low threshold of the impact
A. Russia warming is key to their econ
Mahoney 11 (Honor Mahony, is editor of the EUobserver in Brussels and has also written for The Irish Times,
Sunday Business Post and Spiegel Online, 6/7/11, Ocnus.net,
http://www.ocnus.net/artman2/publish/Business_1/Arctic-Shipping-Routes-Unlikely-to-be-Suez-of-the-North.shtml

Late last year a cargo ship made maritime history. It became the first foreign bulk carrier to make a commercial trip
across Russian Arctic waters. Carrying over 40,000 tonnes of iron ore, the MV Nordic Barents left Kirkenes port in
Norway on 4 September. It sailed the North Sea route, a path that runs eastwards from northern Europe, along
Russia's north coast and through the Bering Strait. Some three weeks later, it docked in Xingang, northern China.
The North Sea route has become freer of ice, but the navigation season is still just two-four months "The whole trip
went very well. There were no big delays and it was a lot cheaper. Just compared to going via the Cape of Good
Hope, the savings for fuel alone was around $550,000," said Christian Bonfils, CEO of Nordic Bulk Carriers, operator
of the ship. The Russians have been using Arctic waters all year round for decades. Retreating sea ice due to global
warming in recent years has seen foreign shipping companies start to look northwards for the possibility of
commercial shipping routes. But until recently the area has been closed to foreign ships wanting to get to hungry
Asian markets. Instead companies use the Suez Canal - a trip which, counted from Norway, is almost twice as
long. Last year Tschudi Shipping, which owns a mine in Kirkenes, approached the Russians about the possibility of
using the North Sea route to get to China, the mine's biggest customer. "We got a very clear message from the
Russians. It was: 'We want to compete with Suez'," said CEO Felix Tschudi. The Norwegian company hooked up with
Nordic Bulk Carriers, who had the right type of ice ship, to make the trip. Until then uncertainty about how much
the Russians would charge for the mandatory use of their ice-breakers meant the trip was not economically viable.
"The rate we paid last year [$210,000] for ice-breaker services was very comparable with the Suez Canal," said
Bonfils. Getting Russian natural resources out So what prompted the Russian thaw? According to Professor Lawson
Brigham, an expert on Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, it comes down to Russia wanting to exploit
natural resources in the area. "The bottom line is that Russia's GNP is tied to Arctic natural resources
development. The real driver is building up a transport system to move the cargoes of natural resources to global
markets and one of the big global markets sitting there is China," he said. The region has a wealth of natural
resources including nickel, iron ore, phosphate, copper and cobalt. There are huge reserves of gas in the Shtokman
gas field, while a 2008 report by the US Geological Survey suggested oil in the Arctic circle could amount to 13
percent of the world's undiscovered supply. Tschudi and Bonfils have an additional, more prosaic explanation. The
obligation to use Russian ice-breakers is a money spinner. "If they can employ their icebreakers in the summer
season, then it's good business for them," said Bonfils. Problems Several more such trans-arctic trips are planned
this year. According to Tschudi the North Sea route "will be important for those who are shipping from fairly high
north." "It will be quite important for mines in the Kola Peninsula [in north west Russia], mines in Finland. You can
also save by shipping from Rotterdam." But for all the buzz it has been creating - shipping companies are also
thrilled at the prospect of pirate-free waters caveats abound. Good trade depends on predictability Global
warming has meant the North Sea route has become freer of ice. But this is the case only for about four months a
year at most, sometimes only two. An impact study on Arctic marine shipping by the Arctic Council notes that the
navigation season for the North Sea route is expected to be 90-100 days only by 2080. "Despite all of the change,
the Arctic Ocean is ice-covered for most of the year ." said Brigham, adding: "The global maritime industry works on
just-in-time cargoes and the regular nature of marine traffic." "There is a little bit of a misperception that this is a
new global regime with new global shipping lanes that will replace Panama and Suez [canals]." In addition,
businesses need to feel less that they are subject to Russia's whim when it comes to tariffs. "We need predictability
[on prices] in order to plan," said Tschudi. There are a host of other problems too. There is little infrastructure in
Arctic territory. If a ship gets into trouble, help is far away. There are also no clear rules on standards for ships
sailing in the area. The waters are not as well chartered as elsewhere. More oceangraphic and meterological data
is needed as well as information on icebergs. At the political level, there is a dispute over the waters. Russia
considers the Northern Sea route as national territory, so it makes the rules. The US disagrees.

Disruption of Russias economy cause nuclear war and


extinction
Filger 9 [Sheldon, founder of Global Economic Crisis, The Huffington Post,, 5.10.9, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sheldonfilger/russian-economy-faces-dis_b_201147.html // jweideman]

In Russia, historically, economic health and political stability are intertwined to a degree that is rarely encountered
in other major industrialized economies. It was the economic stagnation of the former Soviet Union that led to its
political downfall. Similarly, Medvedev and Putin, both intimately acquainted with their nation's history, are unquestionably
alarmed at the prospect that Russia's economic crisis will endanger the nation's political stability, achieved at
great cost after years of chaos following the demise of the Soviet Union. Already, strikes and protests are occurring among rank
and file workers facing unemployment or non-payment of their salaries. Recent polling demonstrates that the once supreme
popularity ratings of Putin and Medvedev are eroding rapidly. Beyond the political elites are the financial oligarchs, who

have been forced to deleverage, even unloading their yachts and executive jets in a desperate attempt to raise
cash. Should the Russian economy deteriorate to the point where economic collapse is not out of the question,
the impact will go far beyond the obvious accelerant such an outcome would be for the Global Economic Crisis. There
is a geopolitical dimension that is even more relevant then the economic context . Despite its economic vulnerabilities and
perceived decline from superpower status, Russia remains one of only two nations on earth with a nuclear
arsenal of sufficient scope and capability to destroy the world as we know it. For that reason, it is not only President
Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin who will be lying awake at nights over the prospect that a national economic crisis can
transform itself into a virulent and destabilizing social and political upheaval. It just may be possible that U.S. It just may be
possible that U.S. President Barack Obama's national security team has already briefed him about the consequences of a major
economic meltdown in Russia for the peace of the world. After all, the most recent national intelligence estimates put out by the

Economic Crisis represents the


greatest national security threat to the United States, due to its facilitating
political instability in the world. During the years Boris Yeltsin ruled Russia, security forces
responsible for guarding the nation's nuclear arsenal went without pay for
months at a time, leading to fears that desperate personnel would illicitly sell
nuclear weapons to terrorist organizations. If the current economic crisis in Russia
were to deteriorate much further, how secure would the Russian nuclear arsenal
remain? It may be that the financial impact of the Global Economic Crisis is its least dangerous consequence.
U.S. intelligence community have already concluded that the Global

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