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World

Concerns grow in Pakistan and India over border violence

By Tim Craig November 23, 2013

TAHIRJOIAN,PakistanFormuchofthepastdecade,theresidentsofthisvillagenearPakistansborderwithIndiahavelivedinrelativepeace,tending
theirwaterbuffaloandgoats,despiteahistoryoftensionsbetweenthecountries.
Butthisfall,mortarshellsfromIndiakilleda40yearoldrickshawdriverandseveralanimals,residentssay.
Ihavesentmyfamilytorelativesandkeepmydoorlocked,saidMohammadIqbal,55.WhenIamsurepeaceisrestored,Iwillbringthemback.
RecentattacksinvolvingIndianandPakistanitroopshavebeentheworstborderviolencesincea2003ceasefire.Now,withsnowfallingonthe
mountainousborder,fightinghassubsidedanddisplacedresidentsaretricklinghome.
Butanalystsfearthecalmwillberelativelyshortlived.Whilefewexpectanotherwar,theflareupsillustratethesimmeringtensionsthatmayonly
increaseasthetwocountriesjostleforinfluenceinAfghanistanwhileU.S.troopswithdraw.
Thisisthenewnormal,saidStephenP.Cohen,aseniorfellowandSouthAsiaanalystattheBrookingsInstitution.Thisisgoingtobejustlikethe
MiddleEast,butonlywithtwocountrieswithnuclearweapons.
Thefightingthisfall,whichincludedartilleryandmortarfire,claimedcivilianandmilitarylivesonbothsidesoftheborder.Ominously,ittookplacenot

onlyinKashmir,whichhasbeenasourceoftensionfordecades,butalsofarthersouthontheoutskirtsofSialkot,anindustrialareaknownforproducing
qualitysoccerballs.
SincepredominantlyMuslimPakistanwasseparatedfrommostlyHinduIndiain1947,thecountrieshavefoughttwowarsoverKashmir,whichisdivided
betweenthembuthasamajorityMuslimpopulation.
Eachsidehasblamedtheotherfortherecentfighting.
PakistanisspeculatethattheIndiangovernmentisbecomingmoreaggressivetowarditsneighbor,inparttogainsupportaheadofnationalelections.
Meanwhile,IndiansaccusePakistanoffailingtoreininIslamistmilitantsseekinganindependentKashmir.Someofthemilitantgroupsarewidely
suspectedofhavingtiestothePakistanimilitaryandintelligenceservices.
TheconflictstartedinJanuary,whenPakistanaccusedIndianforcesofkillingaPakistanisoldieronthedisputedborderinKashmir,knownastheLineof
Control.IndiathenclaimedPakistanisoldiersormilitantscrossedtheborderandkilledthreeofitssoldiers.
InAugust,thefeudtookadangerousturnwhenfiveIndiansoldierswereslaininKashmir.Pakistandeniedresponsibilitybutshellingbetweenthetwo
sidesescalated.
Lastmonth,PakistansmilitaryaccusedIndiaoffiring4,000mortarshellsand59,000machinegunroundsduringatwodayperiodthatcoincidedwith
PakistaniPrimeMinisterNawazSharifsmeetingwithPresidentObamainWashington.OneofthoseshellskilledtherickshawdriverinTahirJoian.
Wewereforcedtoretaliate,saidBrig.MateemAhmedKhan,aseniorcommanderforPakistansborderforcenearSialkot.HeaccusedIndiaofstoking
thetensiontoundermineSharifsvisittoWashington.Itwasarainoffirecomingdownonourvillagesandposts,hesaid.
WithPakistanrestrictingWesternreportersaccesstotheborder,itisdifficulttoverifytheclaimsofitsmilitary.InTahirJoian,chunksofconcretewere
missingfromwallsandaholewasvisibleinathatchedroof,buttheredidnotappeartobewidespreaddamage.

Efforts to avoid crisis

WhenareportervisitedaPakistanirangeroutpostrecently,soldierswerelookingoutoveratranquilborder,listeningtomusicfromanIndianBorder
SecurityForcebunkeraboutaquartermileaway.
Thesoundofmusicacrosstheborderunderscoresacrucialpoint:Unlikepreviousconflictsinthe1990sandearly2000s,whichledtofearsofanother
majorwar,IndiaandPakistanareworkingtokeepingtheirskirmishesfromturningintoaninternationalcrisis.
Thedirectorsofmilitaryoperationsforbothcountriesholdweeklyconferencecallstotrytokeephostilitiesincheck.KhanrecentlymethisIndian
counterpartatthebordertodiscussmatterssuchashowIndianforcescanclearbrusharoundtheiroutpostswithoutfearofbeingtargeted.
Sharif,whocampaignedonimprovedrelationswithIndiabeforetakingofficeinJune,ispressingforsecurityandtradenegotiationswithIndianPrime
MinisterManmohanSingh.ThoughthetwometinlateSeptember,Singhhasappearedhesitanttoengageinsubstantivetalks,expressingconcernthat
PakistanisnotdoingenoughtocontrolIslamistmilitantgroupsincludingLashkareTaiba,responsibleforthe2008Mumbaiterroristattacks.
ButmanyPakistanianalystsdoubtthatthiscountrysmilitaryistoblameforthetension,sinceitisfocusedonbattlingdomesticmilitants.Abloody
insurgencybythePakistaniTalibanhasclaimedmorethan45,000lives.
Pakistanispreoccupiedwithdomesticissuesatthemoment,sothemilitarywouldhavenointerestinheatinguptheLineofControl,nonewhatsoever,
saidMaleehaLodhi,aformerPakistaniambassadortoWashington.Infact,ithasaninterestinassuringallispeacefulontheeasternfrontsoitcan
focusonthewesternfrontwithAfghanistan,anareawheremanymilitantsarebased.
LodhisaidSinghmaybeadoptingatougherapproachtoPakistanbecauseofIndianelectionsinthespring.Singhissteppingaside,buthisCongress
PartyfacesastiffchallengefromtheBJPparty,ledbyNarendraModi,anardentHindunationalistwhowantstotakeaharderlinewithPakistan.

The Afghanistan factor

Evenaftertheelections,analystsfear,theIndiaPakistanbordercouldturnvolatileasthetwocountriesstruggleforinfluenceinAfghanistan.
Inrecentmonths,AfghanPresidentHamidKarzaihasbeenreachingouttoIndiaformilitaryaid,apotentialalliancethatunnervesPakistanileaders,
whofeartheircountrycouldbecomefurtherisolatedintheregion.

ToPakistanis,theirnationsregionalimportancewashighlightedthissummerwhenU.S.officialsturnedtothecountryforhelpintryingtoarrange
peacetalksbetweentheTalibanandKarzaisgovernment.Thetalksultimatelydidnthappen.
InPakistan,someofficialsbelieveIndiaescalatedtensionatthebordertodrawattentionawayfromPakistansdiplomaticefforts.
IndiawasanxiousitwasgettingleftoutandthatPakistanwasnottakingitseriously,saidRiazKhokhar,Pakistansforeignsecretaryfrom2002to
2005.
SushantSareen,aresearcherattheInstituteforDefenseStudiesandAnalysesinNewDelhi,calledKhokharscommentsutterrubbish.Therealcause
oftheskirmishingontheborder,hesaid,wasPakistansunwillingnesstostopIslamistmilitantgroupsfromcrossingtheborder.
Inrecentweeks,beforesnowsintheHimalayanmountainsmadepassagedifficult,asmanyas100PakistaniinsurgentssneakedintoIndianterritory,
accordingtoIndianintelligenceandsecurityofficials.Theysaytheinsurgentsplantocarryoutattacksbeforetheelectionsandstokeseparatistfervorin
IndiancontrolledKashmir.
Before,therewasthisloomingAmericanpresenceintheregionthatkeptthingsfromhappening,Sareensaid.Butnow,withthatfocusshiftingfrom
thearea,itsgoingbacktobusinessasusual.
AnnieGoweninNewDelhiandBabarDogarinLahore,Pakistan,contributedtothisreport.

Tim Craig is The Posts bureau chief in Pakistan. He has also covered conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and within the District of
Columbia government.