Session 03 - Measuring Current State

Six Sigma Measure Phase

Measuring the Current
State of a Process

Case Study Scanner Mfg

1
2
3
4

Key Output Variables (Ys)

Weld Shear Force (from destructive test)

Specification: Shear Force > 13 lbs
Visual Weld Inspection (binary: pass/fail)

Process Variables (Xs)

Material (melt flow index)

Surface condition
Press force
Clamping force
Temperature

Problem:
Weld Defects between
Mylar Motor and
Attachment Bracket
(Ultrasonic
Weld Operation)
2

Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

Session 03 - Measuring Current State

Topics
I.

Review Types of Data

II.

Review of Exploring Data Patterns and

Descriptive Statistics

III. Six Sigma Metric Calculations*

Yield

Defects Per Million (DPM)

Defects Per Million Opportunities (DPMO)

DPM based on Variable (Numerical) Data

* Note: Other metrics will be discussed in future lectures
3

I. Types of Data Variables

Selection of analysis method/tool depends on type of data

Discrete/ Continuous Variables (Numerical/Quantitative Data)

Discrete variables - vary by whole units (# of customers)

Continuous variables - vary to any degree, limited only by

precision of measurement system.

Time to complete a task
Manufactured hole diameter

measurement may be 10 mm, 10.0 mm, 10.01 mm, 10.008 mm

Qualitative (Categorical) Variables (Attribute Data)

Binary (pass/fail; defective/ not defective)

Ordinal (ordered classification system such as survey rating systems)
Nominal (non-ordered groups or classifications)
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Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

Session 03 - Measuring Current State

Qualitative (Categorical) Data

To analyze qualitative data, we typically assign discrete numerical values

and/or use them to stratify or group other numerical data by categories
Some examples are:

Binary Variables assign discrete binary outcome (0/1)

Examples: On Time Delivery, Service Quality

Binary Attribute: On Time (0) / Late (1); OK (0) / NOK (1)

Ordinal Variables assign discrete ordinal scale to classify responses

Ordinal Attribute natural order is implied between categories but the magnitude
of difference is unknown

Example 1: Variable = Size

Small, Medium, and Large

Example 2: Variable = Survey Response to Question (with ordinal attribute scale)

Strongly Disagree(1), Disagree(2), Neutral(3), .. Strongly Agree (5)

Nominal (Categorical or Grouping) Variables use to stratify or group data

Variable Example: Distribution Center

Other Examples: Shift (e.g., Day or Night); Plant; Department; Model Type

Nominal Attributes: Northeast, Southwest, Central

II. Review of Exploring Data

Patterns and Descriptive Statistics

To characterize a variable, we typically observe a Sample from a

Population and run statistical analysis (e.g., compute Statistics).
Some Common Statistical Analysis/Tools to characterize a variable include:

A.

Data patterns regardless of time order

Common Tools (Sample size, N > 30): Histogram, Box Plot

If small sample size (e.g., N < 30): use Dot Plot

B.

Data patterns in time order (i.e., to evaluate process stability over time)
Run Chart (also known as trend chart or time series plot)
Statistical Process Control (SPC) Chart (refer to SPC lecture)

C.

Descriptive Statistics Summary Table common statistics to report include:

Sample Size, N

Location Statistics: Mean and Median

Dispersion (Variation) Statistics: St Dev, Variance, Range (with Min and Max)

Symmetry and Peakedness of Distribution Shape: Skewness and Kurtosis

Additional Statistics: Trimmed Mean, Quartiles, or Percentiles

6

Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

Session 03 - Measuring Current State

A. Histogram Example
Typical Y-Axis: frequency or relative frequency

May use relative frequency (%) if sample size is large

May create using Excel or Minitab

Histogram of ShearForce

Minitab Commands:
>> Graph
>> Histogram
>> Select Variable
ShearForce

16
14

Frequency

12
10
8
6

Note: Requirement is
Shear Force >= 13
(Lower Specification
Limit (LSL) = 13)

4
2
0

12
ShearForce

18

24

Normal Vs. Skewed Data

Skewed Right

Normal

Histogram of ShearForce

16
14

Frequency

12
10
8
6

2
0

12
ShearForce

18

Bi-Modal

Does shear force data

appear normally
distributed or another
(e.g., skewed right,
skew left, or bi-modal)?

Skewed Left

Is this likely a natural

phenomenon?

24

Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

Session 03 - Measuring Current State

Statistical Test - Normality

We may use Minitab to test for Normality

Null Hypothesis (Ho): Data are Normal; Ha ~ Data are not Normal
Test Conclusion: p-value is ~0.000 (note: if p-value < alpha, reject Ho)

Default: alpha error = 0.05

Probability Plot of ShearForce

Normal
1.0E+02

Mean
StDev
N
AD
P-Value

99
95

Percent

90

Minitab Commands:
>> Stat
>> Basic Statistics
>> Normality Test
Select Variable
ShearForce

17.67
6.841
60
2.238
<0.005

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10

Note: Selected
Anderson Darling Test

5
1
0.1

10

20
ShearForce

30

40

Box Plot Calculations

Extreme Outlier(s)
Mild Outlier(s)
Upper Whisker:
Highest value within
upper limit

*
*

Upper Limit:
Q3 + 1.5 fs

Third quartile (Q3)

Median
First quartile (Q1)
Lower Whisker:
Lowest value within
lower limit
Excel Command (E.g., Q3)
=percentile(data array, 0.75)

Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

Q3 75th Percentile
Median - 50th Percentile
Q1 25th Percentile
fs = Q3 Q1

*
Q1 - 1.5 fs
Q3 + 1.5 fs

Lower Limit:
Q1 1.5 fs
> mild
outlier
< mild
outlier

> Q1 - 3.0 fs > extreme

outlier
< Q3 + 3.0 fs < extreme
outlier
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Session 03 - Measuring Current State

Box Plot Shear Force

What does this box plot suggest?

Boxplot of ShearForce

Minitab Commands:
>> Graph
>> Boxplot
>> Select Variable
Y = ShearForce

30

25

ShearForce

20

15

10

11

Histogram Vs. Box Plot

Box plots provide a similar representation of distribution
as Histogram (for Normal, skewed right, skewed left)
Exception: must show multi-modal with histogram

Histogram of ShearForce

Boxplot of ShearForce

16

30

14
25

20

10
ShearForce

Frequency

12

8
6

10

4
2
0

15

5
0

12
ShearForce

18

24
0

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Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

Session 03 - Measuring Current State

Outlier Analysis (Extreme Values)

Box plots provide an effective tool to identify possible outliers

Outliers are non-representative values in a data set and
generally result from

measurement or data entry error (e.g., record using wrong units)

observation being obtained under a different set of circumstances
(e.g., special cause)
data recorded during peak volume versus typical conditions

Outliers may significantly affect descriptive statistics such as

mean/standard deviation and other statistics (e.g., correlation
between two variables)
13

Outliers: Good Or Bad?

Data Analysis Trap is to automatically exclude outliers

Outliers may suggest a better set of operating
conditions are available
Unfortunately, deciding whether to include or exclude
outliers is an experience-developed skill

Try to understand the source of outliers before discarding

If decide to remove outlier, some typical strategies are:

With a large sample size, remove the entire observation

For smaller samples (N < 100) where you collect data on
several variables, you may want to keep the sample. Here, we
typically replace the outlier sample value with median value for
that variable. Why Median?
14

Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

Session 03 - Measuring Current State

Multiple Box Plots

During the analyze phase, we often stratify Box Plot Results for Y
output by grouping variables (e.g., Nominal Variables)

Is shear force consistent across all batches of incoming material?

Boxplot of ShearForce vs Production Batch*

30

Minitab Commands:
>> Graph
>> Boxplot
>> Select Graph Variable
Y = ShearForce
X = Batch

25

ShearForce

20
15
10
5
0
P1

P2
Production Batch*

P3

15

B. Run Chart (Time Series Plot)

If time sequence available, we often like to examine
data by time (look for time trends)

Time Series Plot of Shear Force (lb)

30

Minitab Commands:
>> Graph
>> Time Series Plot
>> Select Graph Variable
Y = ShearForce

Shear Force (lb)

25
20
15
10
5
0
1

12

18

24

30
Index

36

42

48

54

60

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Session 03 - Measuring Current State

C. Minitab - Descriptive Statistics

Another common analysis to perform during the measure phase is to compute

descriptive statistics for Y (if Y may be evaluated as continuous variable)

Descriptive Statistics: ShearForce

Minitab Command >> Stat >> Basic Statistics

Descriptive Statistics: Shear Force (lb)

Variable
N N* Mean SE Mean StDev Minimum
Q1 Median
Shear Force (lb) 60 0 17.670 0.883 6.841 1.400 11.350 20.200
Variable
Q3 Maximum Skewness Kurtosis
Shear Force (lb) 23.275 26.900 -0.75 -0.53
Or, Use Excel to Create Table with:

N, Mean, StDev, Min, Max, Range, Skew

Questions:

What does a skewness of -0.75 suggest?

Why does the median differ from the mean for these data?

17

Stratification Analysis of
Descriptive Statistics

May wish to stratify an output by an X variable

Descriptive Statistics: ShearForce

Minitab Command >> Stat >> Basic Statistics

By Variable: Batch

What do these data suggest?

Descriptive Statistics: ShearForce

Production
Batch*

Mean TrMean StDev Minimum Median Maximum

P1

20 22.170 22.272 2.859 16.200

22.450 26.300

P2

20 16.30 16.47 7.07

2.60

18.05

26.90

P3

20 14.55 14.71 7.32

1.40

12.30

24.70
18

Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

Session 03 - Measuring Current State

III. Six Sigma Metric Calculations

1.

Yield (e.g., Simple Quality Yield)

2.

Defects Per Million (DPM) (Attribute Data)

Note: DPM also known as PPM for parts per million defective

3.

Defects Per Million Opportunities (DPMO)

4.

Defects per Million (Observed DPM)

5.

Defects per Million (Expected DPM)

Note: Other Six Sigma Metrics covered later in course

Process Capability,

Reliability,

Rolled Throughput Yield

19

Specifications

To calculate Yield (or % defective, DPM, DPMO) we need

standards or specification limits

LSL Lower Specification Limit; USL Upper Specification Limit

Specification limits identify acceptance levels.

Unilateral Specification Limit Examples

Process time <= 30 days
Shear Force >= 13 lbs
Bilateral Specification Limit Examples
30 +/- 5 days (Nominal=30; LSL=25; USL=35)
Width 1000 +/- 0.5 mm
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Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

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Session 03 - Measuring Current State

1. Quality Yield (% Acceptable)

Quality Yield = (# Good Units) / (Total # Units) x 100%

Unit: part, service, customer, document, procedure, etc.

Or, Yield = (1 Fraction Defective) x 100%

Where Fraction Defective = # Defective / Total # Units

# Defective is a binary assessment (e.g., 0-not late; 1-late)

typical convention for binary let defect = 1

Example:

Suppose 232 of 1034 bills are late (802 are on-time),

calculate the Quality Yield
Quality Yield = 802/1034 = 77.6%
21

DPM and DPMO Methods

Depending on type of data, often convert Yield to defects per million

(DPM) or defects per million opportunity (DPMO )
Method used varies based on type of data/ assumptions

22

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11

Session 03 - Measuring Current State

2. Defective Method for DPM

Suppose you have a process where each unit is
classified as defective or not defective

Fraction Defective =

Total # Defective
Total #Units Inspected

DPM = Fraction Defective x 1 Million

Note: Yield = 1 fraction defective
Suppose you fabricate 4000 welds and find that 35
are defective. What is the DPM?

Fraction Defective: 35 / 4000 = 0.008750

DPM =

23

3. # Defects per Unit

Opportunity Method (DPMO)

Use if a particular inspection unit or part has 1 or

more defects (multiple opportunities)
Example: Suppose we visually inspect weld
manufacturing process for various conditions

A: Excess Part Deflection after welding

B: Poor weld penetration
C: Poor weld appearance (e.g., excess flash)

Note: each weld (unit) could have 0 - 3 defects

24

Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

12

Session 03 - Measuring Current State

Defects per Million Opportunity

(DPMO)
Here, we use opportunities to summarize the total number of possible
chances for error (i.e., defects) in system

DPMO =

Total # Defects
x 1 Million
Total Opportunities (TOP)

Where:
Total # Defects = Total # defects across all units

Total # Opportunities = Opportunitiesi

i = defect category

25

DPMO Example

Given the following data set of three features per unit:

Suppose you have 1,000 welds (TOP = 3 x 1,000 = 3000)
Part Feature
A
B
C
total

Defects
22
19
18
59

Fraction nonconforming = 59/3,000 = 1.967%

DPMO = 19,667
26

Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

13

Session 03 - Measuring Current State

DPMO Hotel Survey Example

Varying Opportunities per Unit
the number of opportunities may vary by unit (customer)
In hotel example below, not all guests may use hotel meal service
Here, the total opportunities is obtained by summing the
opportunities for each category
Given the following data set, what is the DPMO?

Concern

Guests

Poor Meal Service*

Poor House Keeping
Problems with Reservations
Long Check In
Long Check Out

447
1000
1000
1000
1000

Total

Defects
(Not
Satisfied)
111
82
34
96
58

Opportunities
447
1000
1000
1000
1000

381

4447

# defects

TOP

* Note: not all guests used a hotel meal service

27

Overall DPMO For Multiple

Groups (Facilities)

DPMO also may be used to summarize multiple groups (e.g.,

departments, facilities)

Note: Opportunity per group also provides a measure of complexity

For example, perhaps one of the hotel does not offer any meal services
Defects

Hotel

Poor Meal
Service*

A
B
C

111
120
n/a

Poor
House
Keeping
82
89
75

Problems with
Reservations
34
37
28

DPMO = 1054/13786 * 1M

Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

Long
Check
In
96
102
90

Long
Check
Out
58
62
70
TOTAL

OVERALL DPMO

Total
Defects
381
410
263
1054

TOP
4447
5114
4225
13786
76,454
28

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Session 03 - Measuring Current State

DPMO The Denominator Game

Suppose we measure 200,000 units with 1 feature per

unit. What happens to the DPMO as the # of features
(concerns) with NO defects increases?

NOTE: Features MUST BE Customer Related and should not just

be added to improve DPMO

Feature
A

# Defects
3

# Opportunities
200,000

B
C
D
E

0
0
0
0

200,000
200,000
200,000
200,000

Total Defects: 3

DPM0
15

Combined
DPMO
=3
(3 / 1M)

Total Opportunities: 1,000,000

29

Denominator Game Example

Suppose you have a hole specification

Could you have one defect opportunity for

oversized and another for undersized?

What if we added the category missing weld

to our example? How might we include that
in determining total opportunities?

30

Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

15

Session 03 - Measuring Current State

4. Variable Data Method

for Observed DPM

If you collect numerical measurements for a characteristic

(dimension) of each unit, we may convert each observation
to a binary result based on specification limits of the
characteristic and then compute DPM

Here, fraction defective =

Either In-Specification or Out-Specification (Defect)

# units observed out-of-specification / total # units

DPM = Fraction Defective x 1 Million

Also known as parts per million (PPM) defective

31

DPM Example: Shear Force

(based on Observed Out-Specification)

Specifications:
Ok, if shear force
>= 13
To compute DPM, need
to convert each
observed measurement
to a binary output
(0-within specification,
1= outside specification
or a defect)
Note: Observed DPM
also may be obtained
using Minitab with
Process Capability
Summary Analysis Tool
32

Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

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Session 03 - Measuring Current State

5. Variable Data Method

for Expected DPM
Used when collecting variable data and data may be reasonably
assumed to follow a known or assumed distribution (e.g., normal)

Use software to fit data to statistical distribution (e.g., Normal

Distribution) and estimate the probability (Pr) of a defect based on the
distribution and its properties

Expected (Predicted) DPM = Pr (Defect) x 1 Million

Normal
Example:
bilateral
tolerance

DEFECT

LOWER
SPECIFICATION

DEFECT
Upper
SPECIFICATION
33

Expected DPM Using Minitab

Capability Analysis: Minitab will compute expected DPM (based on assumed

distribution). Note will examine non-normal distributions in later module or
see appendix)

Suppose we
assume Normality

Version 14

Note: Menu will vary based on Minitab Version Used

Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

34

17

Session 03 - Measuring Current State

Minitab Process Capability Analysis

(excellent all-in-one analysis tool**)
Minitab (Version 14) Command:
Stat >> Quality Tools >> Capability Analysis (Normal)
Variable: ShearForce Subgroup Size ~ 1; LSL=13
(minitab assumptions: unbiasing constants, average moving range method with length=2)
Process Capability of ShearForce

Observed DPM:
316,667

LSL
Within
Overall

Process Data
LSL
13
Target
*
USL
*
Sample Mean
17.67
Sample N
60
StDev (Within) 4.56185
StDev (O v erall) 6.86963

Potential (Within) C apability

Cp
*
C PL
0.34
C PU
*
C pk
0.34
C C pk 0.34
O v erall C apability
Pp
PPL
PPU
Ppk
C pm

0
O bserv ed Performance
PPM < LSL 316666.67
PPM > USL
*
PPM Total
316666.67

Exp.
PPM
PPM
PPM

12

Within Performance
< LSL 152986.54
> USL
*
Total
152986.54

18

24

Exp. O v erall Performance

PPM < LSL 248314.53
PPM > USL
*
PPM Total
248314.53

30

*
0.23
*
0.23
*

Expected (Predicted)
DPM: 248,314

Does Normality
Assumption Matter
in this example?
35

Observed Vs. Expected DPM

If collect variable data (e.g., continuous) and have specifications, we

may always convert to a binary outcome and compute Observed DPM

Or, we can predict the DPM (Expected DPM) by fitting sample data to
a distribution and then determining the probability of a defect x 1M.

Of note: neither is wrong ultimately you want to use the most

representative estimate -- Rule of thumb:

If data reasonably fit a distribution shape (e.g., Normal or Weibull), report

the Expected (Predicted) DPM.
Particularly if data are from a smaller sample size (e.g., 30-100).

If data do not reasonably fit a distribution and large sample size is available
(> 200), use observed DPM.

If not sure, report them both in current state

note: data often are not normal when assessing the current state
during measure phase as some problems create non-normality
36

Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

18

Session 03 - Measuring Current State

Summary

In the measure phase, we typically include:

Histogram and/or Box Plot of raw data (if continuous data)

Run Chart (or SPC Chart) to show any time series trends
Summary Statistics (if continuous data)
N, mean, median, standard deviation, variance, min, max, range, skew
Estimate of Current State in terms of: Yield, DPM, or DPMO

May include Normality Test or

Distribution ID Probability Plot Analysis (see appendix)

Calculations vary depending on type of data, best fit distribution, defect

opportunity classification, # opportunities for defect per unit, etc.
For numerical variables, use Expected DPM for smaller samples sizes (< 100),
particularly if data reasonably fit a known distribution. For larger sample sizes,
may use either observed DPM and/or Expected DPM (if good distribution fit).

When identifying opportunities for DPMO, they should be important to the

customer and independent of other categories (avoid denominator game).
37

Appendix: Distribution ID Plot

Minitab has a tool to help determine best distribution fit

STAT >> Reliability/Survival >> Distribution Analysis Right Censoring >>

Distribution ID Plot
Choose distribution with highest correlation coefficient / lowest AD score

Common
Distribution
Options:
Weibull (best result)
Exponential
Lognormal
Normal
Others available
38

Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

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Session 03 - Measuring Current State

Shear Force Results

Best Result look for:
lowest AD score

Percent

50
10

90
50
10
1

based on Least
Squares Estimation

Here, we do not have

a good distribution fit
for any of the options
(recall, bi-modal)!

99

90

highest correlation
coefficient

C orrelation C oefficient
Weibull
0.948
Lognormal
0.865
Exponentia
*
Normal
0.954

Lognormal
1.0E+02

10
ShearForce

0.1

100

10
ShearForce

Exponential

100

Normal

1.0E+02

1.0E+02
99

90
50

Percent

based on max
likelihood
estimation

LSXY Estimates-Complete Data

Weibull
1.0E+02

Percent

Probability Plot for ShearForce

Percent

10

90
50
10
1

0.1

1.0
10.0
ShearForce

100.0

0.1

20
ShearForce

40

39

Use Best Fit

Distribution to
Estimate DPM

Note: topic
covered in process
capability analysis
module

Select Desired
Distribution

40

Pat Hammett, University of Michigan

20