September 2014 Results Preview | October 2014

Cement
Demand recovery continues (sans south)
Company name

South region to see strong price recovery in 2QFY15

ACC

Demand to grow ~6.3% YoY for MOSL universe; new capacity impacts utilization
Recovery in cement demand continued in 2QFY15, though with QoQ moderation
due to weaker August and September. Taking a cue from the strong IIP data on
cement production (10.9% YoY growth YTD (until August 2014)), we expect demand
for MOSL Cement universe to grow at 6.3% YoY (decline 8.5% QoQ) in 2QFY15. Our
interaction with dealers across regions indicates continued to struggle for demand
growth in the South, with likely revival from January 2015 (post monsoon season in
TN). Commencement of few capacities in the North and the East (Shree Cement and
JK Cement) resulted in capacity utilization declining to 68% (-7pp QoQ, -1pp YoY).

Ambuja Cements
Birla Corporation
Grasim Industries
India Cements

Blended realization up marginally QoQ, led by South and West

Cement prices exited 1QFY15 with an increasing trend, which continued till July
2014 due to delay in the monsoon. In August and September, there was gradual
moderation, before some price hike announcement in the second half of
September. Overall, we estimate the national average price to be higher by
INR2/bag QoQ (INR18/bag YoY). South-based players should witness maximum
realization benefits, with ~INR16/bag QoQ improvement as per our calculation,
followed by West-based players (especially Maharashtra). We estimate a
moderation of INR20/bag in the North and East. We factor in INR13.5/INR20/INR20
per bag increase in realizations in FY15/FY16/FY17 after ~INR5/bag decline in FY14.

Jaiprakash Associates
Shree Cement
Ultratech Cement

Flattish realizations, negative operating leverage dent profitability

Profitability is likely to decline INR110/ton QoQ (increase INR166/ton YoY) to
INR665/ton due to flattish realizations and negative operating leverage. Barring
freight, other commodity price trends highlight no inflationary pressure on variable
costs. While players focused on the South market will benefit significantly from
sharp pricing recovery, North and East based players will see impact on profitability
due to weak pricing. We estimate EBITDA/ton at INR795/1,069/INR1,338 for
FY15/FY16/FY17, up from ~INR674/ton in FY14.
Expected quarterly performance summary (INR Million)
Sector

ACC
Ambuja Cements
Birla Corporation
Grasim Industries
India Cements
Jaiprakash Associates
Shree Cement
Ultratech Cement
Cement Sector Aggregate

CMP
(INR)
30.9.14
1,404
214
474
3,550
112
27
8,408
2,625

Reco.
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy

Sales (INR m)
Var % Var %
Sep-14
YoY QoQ
26,792
23,143
8,106
15,634
11,219
35,234
15,585
51,878
187,591

6.8
15.4
14.1
11.2
3.3
10.9
24.9
15.2
12.7

-11.0
-14.5
-5.7
9.8
-8.5
17.7
-5.6
-8.2
-3.9

EBDITA (INR m)
Var % Var %
Sep-14
YoY QoQ

Net Profit (INR m)

Var % Var %
Sep-14
YoY QoQ

2,609
3,685
745
1,493
1,827
9,420
3,388
8,214
31,381

1,641 35.8 -31.9

2,334 73.3 -42.9
425
2.2 -57.3
2,301 -41.9 117.4
236
LP
LP
435 -48.8
LP
1,610
-7.1 -37.0
3,160 19.6 -49.5
12,142
1.8 -26.6
Source: Company, MOSL

15.8
44.3
27.3
-42.8
43.2
19.2
35.8
24.5
19.4

-34.8
-35.8
-41.9
18.8
15.8
24.8
-21.8
-18.5
-12.4

Jinesh Gandhi (Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com) / Sandipan Pal (Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com)

October
Investors2014
are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.

September 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

Valuation and view

Our FY15/16 large cap EPS has seen marginal to moderate upgrades due to lower
than expected monsoon season price decline. Demand recovery has been faster
than expected in 1HFY15. This coupled with slowing capacity addition and higher
capex and opex cost would support cement prices and profitability, going forward.
Sustained recovery in demand would act as a catalyst for stock performance. Any
government intervention in cement pricing poses a threat to our positive view.
Among large caps, we prefer ACC, and UltraTech, whereas in mid-caps we prefer
Dalmia Bharat, JK Cement, and JK Lakshmi Cement.

Volumes (MT) - RHS

2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15

2QFY15

Source: Company, MOSL

Source: Company, MOSL

Trend in average quarterly cement price (INR/bag)

1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15

60%

North

272

245
245

70%

East

West

South

Central

Weaker realizations, cost push and weak operating leverage

to dent profitability

Blended realization trend

665

775
1QFY15

2QFY15

730

574
3QFY14

4QFY14

499

805
1QFY14

2QFY14

780
4QFY13

946
2QFY13

764

1,092
1QFY13

3QFY13

956
4QFY12

812
3QFY12

1,019

4,476
2QFY15

613

4,437
1QFY15

2QFY12

4,307
4QFY14

1QFY12

4,235
3QFY14

924

4,164
2QFY14

4QFY11

4,298
1QFY14

605

4,283
4QFY13

3QFY11

4,331
3QFY13

400

4,499

Source: Company, MOSL

2QFY11

4,466

2QFY13

EBITDA (INR/ton)

1QFY13

4,207
4QFY12

3,835
2QFY12

4,132

4,038
1QFY12

3QFY12

3,879

3,478

4QFY11

3,262

3QFY11

Realization (INR/ton)

2QFY11

National
Average

Source: Company, MOSL

Source: Company, MOSL

October 2014

2QFY15

279
289
293
295

1QFY15

264

269
272
261
307

80%

271
281
286
297

308

90%

4QFY14

277

3QFY14

328
324
314

2QFY14

300
281
290
306

100%

294

Utilizations down QoQ with new capacity commencement

293
297
292

1QFY15

4QFY14

3QFY14

2QFY14

1QFY14

4QFY13

-2

3QFY13

-5
2QFY13

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

2QFY12

13

1QFY12

10

Volume growth (%)

9.1
6.3

18

266

MOSL Universe

6.4
3.6
4.3
4.0
9.4
10.4
13.8
8.4
2.7
1.9

IIP Data

15

MOSL cement universe volumes to grow 7% YoY (-8.5% QoQ)

-2.0
0.4
3.3
1.5
6.1

Cement demand recovery apparent in 1HFY15 (%)

Source: Company, MOSL

1

September 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

Revised EPS estimates (INR)

ACC
Ambuja Cement
UltraTech
Birla Corp
India Cement
Shree Cement
JK lakshmi
Ramco Cement
JK Cement
Orient Cement
Prism Cement
Dalmia Cement
* Profit to Loss

Rev
51.7
7.1
89.8
40.5
1.8
274.7
17.3
8.0
20.1
7.5
0.4
0.6

FY15E/CY14E
Old
49.4
6.9
79.1
38.9
3.3
278.0
14.3
8.8
20.6
7.5
1.0
0.6

Chg (%)
4.6
1.9
13.4
4.2
-47.0
-1.2
20.3
-9.0
-2.2
0.0
-56.6
0.0

Rev
81.6
9.7
132.4
60.0
10.7
443.7
24.4
15.3
47.0
6.7
5.7
13.4

FY16E/CY15E
Old Chg (%)
79.3
3.0
9.6
1.4
120.9
9.5
58.3
2.9
11.5
-7.0
422.8
4.9
21.3
14.7
15.7
-2.3
47.6
-1.3
6.7
0.0
6.9
-18.2
13.4
0.0
Source: MOSL

Trend in key financial parameters (INR m)

ACC
Ambuja Cement
UltraTech
Birla Corp
India Cement
Shree Cement
Dalmia Bharat
J K Cements
JK Lakshmi Cem.
Madras Cement
Orient Paper
Prism Cement
Sector Aggregate

2QFY15
26,792
23,143
51,878
8,106
11,219
15,585
8,125
7,431
5,596
9,788
3,494
13,557
184,715

Net Sales
YoY (%)
6.8
15.4
15.2
14.1
3.3
24.9
14.1
19.0
24.7
8.2
8.8
17.7
13.9

QoQ (%)
-11.0
-14.5
-8.2
-5.7
-8.5
-5.6
19.4
-7.3
-6.8
5.9
-8.1
-2.0
-7.1

Trend in key operating parameters

Volume (m ton)
2QFY15 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
ACC
5.7
3.0
-10.1
Ambuja Cement
5.1
5.0
-12.2
UltraTech
10.2
11.0
-12.4
Birla Corp
2.0
8.0
-2.7
India Cement
2.3
-5.0
-9.4
Dalmia Bharat
1.7
5.0
9.6
J K Cements
1.6
9.4
-7.8
JK Lakshmi Cem.
1.4
8.0
-3.3
Madras Cement
2.1
-5.0
-2.1
Orient Paper
1.0
0.5
-11.9
Prism Cement
1.3
10.0
-16.3
38.2
6.3
-8.5
Sector Aggregate

EBITDA Margin (%)

2QFY15
YoY (BP)
QoQ (BP)
9.7
80
-360
15.9
320
-530
15.8
120
-200
9.2
100
-570
16.3
450
340
21.7
170
-450
13.2
290
750
10.6
450
-170
15.1
260
-380
14.0
-120
40
15.5
470
-140
2.5
480
-560
13.8
210
-260

Realization (INR/ton)
2QFY15 YoY (INR) QoQ (INR)
4,397
162
-40
4,511
408
-120
4,988
185
214
3,788
247
-200
4,544
429
300
4,694
469
300
4,645
376
29
4,020
537
-150
4,701
622
300
3,678
279
150
3,749
12
-150
4,476
313
40

Net Profit
2QFY15 YoY (%)
QoQ (%)
1,641
35.8
-31.9
2,334
73.3
-42.9
3,160
19.6
-49.5
425
2.2
-57.3
236
-204.8
-897.7
1,610
-7.1
-37.0
125
-147.9
-145.8
60
-127.8
-84.3
312
203.2
-42.1
586
220.8
61.6
289
100.1
-17.1
-378
-67.2
-385.5
10,400
75.6
-41.5
Source: Company, MOSL

EBITDA (INR/ton)
2QFY15 YoY (INR) QoQ (INR)
444
47
-168
718
196
-264
790
86
-62
488
143
-270
788
265
171
623
178
374
492
232
-75
608
172
-180
787
403
268
569
201
-26
104
347
-550
665
166
-110
Source: Company, MOSL

October 2014

Realtive Performance - 3m (%)

110

Sensex Index

Realtive Performance 1 year (%)

Sensex Index

MOSL Cement Index

105

135

100

120

95

105

90

90
Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

MOSL Cement Index

150

Sep-14

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Source: Bloomberg, MOSL

Jun-14

Sep-14

Source: Bloomberg, MOSL

Comparative Valuation
Sector / Companies
Cement
ACC
Ambuja Cements
Birla Corporation
Grasim Industries
India Cements
Jaiprakash Associates
Shree Cement
Ultratech Cement
Dalmia Bharat
J K Cements
JK Lakshmi Cem.
Ramco Cements
Prism Cement
Sector Aggregate

October 2014

CMP
(INR)

Reco.

EPS (INR)
FY15E FY16E FY17E

1,404Buy
214Neutral
474Buy
3,550Buy
112Neutral
27Buy
8,408Buy
2,625Buy
430Buy
558Buy
357Buy
320Buy
73Buy

51.7 81.6 122.9

7.1
9.7 13.1
40.5 60.0 79.4
258.0 374.5 513.9
1.8 10.7 19.0
1.3
3.9
5.2
274.7 443.7 661.3
89.8 132.4 193.2
0.6 13.4 61.9
20.1 47.0 80.1
17.3 24.4 42.5
8.0 15.3 24.1
0.4
5.7 10.7

PE (x)
FY15E FY16E FY17E
27.2
30.3
11.7
13.8
63.6
20.3
30.6
29.2
717.4
27.7
20.7
40.0
175.7
25.5

17.2
22.0
7.9
9.5
10.5
6.7
19.0
19.8
32.1
11.9
14.6
20.9
12.9
15.8

11.4
16.4
6.0
6.9
5.9
5.1
12.7
13.6
6.9
7.0
8.4
13.2
6.8
10.7

PB (x)
FY15E FY16E FY17E
3.3
2.3
1.3
1.4
0.9
0.4
5.3
3.7
1.1
2.1
2.9
2.9
3.6
2.3

3.0
2.2
1.2
1.2
0.9
0.4
4.2
3.2
1.1
1.9
2.5
2.6
2.9
2.1

2.6
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.4
3.2
2.6
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.2
2.0
1.8

RoE (%)
FY15E FY16E FY17E
12.2 18.2 24.6
10.0 10.2 12.9
11.3 14.8 16.7
10.0 12.8 15.0
1.0
7.4 12.5
2.1
6.1
7.7
18.6 24.6 28.5
13.6 17.4 21.3
0.2
3.5 14.8
7.8 16.5 23.7
14.9 18.7 26.7
7.5 13.2 18.2
2.1 24.7 35.1
9.0 13.1 16.8
Source: Company, MOSL

September 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

ACC
Bloomberg

ACC IN

Equity Shares (m)

187.9

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

264/4

52-Week Range (INR)

1,570/971

1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

-6/ -18/-11

Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)

Y/E Dec
2013 2014E
Sales
109.1 117.4
EBITDA
13.7 14.0
NP
9.1
9.7
Adj.EPS (INR)
48.6 51.7
EPS Gr. (%)
-29.3
6.4
BV/Sh (INR)
416.4 431.8
RoE (%)
12.0 12.2
RoCE (%)
15.3 15.9
Payout (%)
60.2 72.5
Valuations
P/E (x)
29.7 27.9
P/BV (x)
3.5
3.3
EV/EBITDA
17.3 16.1
EV/Ton(USD) 124.9 119.2

CMP: INR1,404

2015E
138.1
23.0
15.3
81.6
58.0
465.2
18.2
24.0
59.0

2016E
164.2
34.0
23.1
122.9
50.6
533.9
24.6
32.3
44.1

17.6 11.7
3.1
2.7
10.3
6.5
121.2 112.2

Buy

Dispatches in 3QCY14 are likely to grow 3% YoY (decline 1% QoQ) to

5.71m tons. Average realization would grow 3.8% YoY (decline 0.9%
QoQ) to INR4,397/ton. QoQ improvement in South and West India
would be negated by declines in North, Central, and East India.
Revenue is likely to grow 6.8% YoY (decline 11% QoQ) to INR26.8b.
We estimate EBITDA margin at 9.7%, up 0.7pp YoY (down 3.6pp
QoQ); the QoQ contraction would be due to QoQ decline in
realization and cost push led by negative operating leverage.
We estimate cement EBITDA/ton at INR444 (up INR47 YoY; down
INR168 QoQ). PAT would grow 6.1% YoY (decline 32% QoQ) to
INR1.6b.
We are raising our CY14/15 EPS estimates (ex synergies) by 3-4% to
factor in for moderately lower price decline assumptions to INR51.7
and INR81.6, respectively.
The stock trades at 17.6x CY15E EPS, and at an EV of 10.3x CY15E
EBITDA and USD121/ton. Maintain Buy, with a target price of
INR1,718 (CY15E EV of USD150/ton).

Key issues to watch for

Volume growth recovery and outlook
Cement pricing outlook and sustainability
Progress in ongoing capex for Jamul expansion (5m tons)
Update on synergies and other guided cost saving measures

Quarterly Performance (Standalone)

Y/E December
Cement Sales (m ton)
YoY Change (%)
Cement Realization
YoY Change (%)
QoQ Change (%)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO Item
PBT after EO Item
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Margins (%)
YoY Change (%)
E: MOSL Estimates

October 2014

1Q
6.42
-4.5
4,269
0.9
2.5
29,111
2.4
4,468
15.3
1,383
108
1,205
4,182
5,861
1,484
25.3
4,377
3,124
10.7
-19.1

(INR Million)
CY13
2Q
6.12
1.2
4,290
-5.9
0.5
27,904
1.2
4,335
15.5
1,387
179
908
3,677
3,677
1,086
29.5
2,591
2,591
9.3
-38.0

3Q
5.54
2.6
4,235
-5.9
-1.3
25,087
3.2
2,254
9.0
1,444
110
1,023
1,722
1,722
514
29.8
1,208
1,208
4.8
-51.4

4Q
5.85
-1.5
4,307
3.4
1.7
26,934
-13.1
2,626
9.8
1,526
120
1,438
2,419
3,178
396
12.5
2,781
2,117
7.9
-11.5

1Q
6.48
0.9
4,304
0.8
-0.1
29,671
1.9
3,653
12.3
1,366
108
1,668
3,848
4,975
988
19.9
3,987
3,084
10.4
-1.3

CY14
2Q
6.35
3.8
4,437
3.4
3.1
30,090
7.8
4,000
13.3
1,377
111
876
3,388
3,388
978
28.9
2,410
2,410
8.0
-7.0

3QE
5.71
3.0
4,397
3.8
-0.9
26,792
6.8
2,609
9.7
1,390
108
1,200
2,311
2,311
670
29.0
1,641
1,641
6.1
35.8

4QE
6.35
8.6
4,591
6.6
4.4
30,890
14.7
3,737
12.1
1,450
103
1,506
3,690
3,690
1,189
32.2
2,501
2,501
8.1
18.1

CY13

CY14E

23.9
-0.7
4,278
-1.8
0.0
109,084
-2.0
13,683
12.5
5,740
517
4,573
12,000
14,437
3,479
24.1
10,958
9,108
8.3
-29.5

24.89
4.0
4,433
3.6
0.0
117,444
7.7
13,999
11.9
5,582
430
5,250
13,237
14,364
3,825
26.6
10,540
9,712
8.3
6.6

September 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

Ambuja Cements
Bloomberg

ACEM IN

Equity Shares (m)

1,979.3

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

423/7

EV/Ton(USD)

244/151
4/ -13/-21

Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)

Y/E Dec
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj.EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA

CMP: INR214

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

90.9 103.7 121.8 142.2

15.5 20.2 28.1 36.9

10.5 14.0 19.2 25.9
6.8
7.1
9.7 13.1
-32.4
4.3 37.2 34.8
61.8 92.8 97.5 105.0
11.4 10.0 10.2 12.9
16.1 14.6 15.0 18.8
49.9 63.9 51.9 42.7
31.7 30.4 22.2 16.4
3.5
2.3
2.2
2.0
18.3 13.8
9.7
7.2
159.8 153.0 149.2 140.8

Neutral

We expect 3QCY14 dispatches to grow 5% YoY (decline 12% QoQ) to

5.13m tons. Average realizations are likely to grow 9.9% YoY (decline
2.6% QoQ) to INR4,511/ton. We estimate revenue at INR23.1b (up
15.4% YoY; down 14% QoQ).
EBITDA margin is likely to expand 3.2pp YoY (shrink 5.3pp QoQ) to
15.9%. We estimate EBITDA/ton at ~INR718 (up INR196/ton YoY;
down INR264/ton QoQ).
Adjusted PAT is likely to grow 73.3% YoY (decline 43% QoQ) to
INR2.3b.
We are raising our CY14/CY15 EPS estimates (ex synergies) by 1-2% to
factor in for marginally higher realizations.
Maintain Neutral, with a target price of INR238 (CY15E EV of
USD160/ton).

Key issues to watch for

Volume growth recovery and outlook
Cement pricing outlook and sustainability
Progress in ongoing mining land acquisition and capex in Nagaur
(Rajasthan) plant of 4.5m tons

Quarterly Performance

(INR Million)

Y/E December
Sales Volume (m ton)*
YoY Change (%)
Realization (INR/ton)
YoY Change (%)
QoQ Change (%)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO Item
Extraordinary Inc/(Exp)
PBT after EO Exp/(Inc)
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported Profit
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
E: MOSL Estimates

October 2014

1Q
5.96
-3.6
4,271
0.3
-0.5
25,448
-3.3
5,118
20.1
1,204
132
1,339
5,121
1,741
6,862
1,983
28.9
4,879
3,641
-28.3

CY13
2Q
5.46
-3.1
4,297
-5.7
0.6
23,457
-8.6
4,920
21.0
1,223
171
1,051
4,578
0
4,578
1,336
29.2
3,242
3,242
-30.9

3Q
4.89
2.0
4,103
-9.2
-4.5
20,049
-7.4
2,554
12.7
1,246
178
940
2,070
481
2,551
891
34.9
1,660
1,346
-60.1

4Q
5.29
-1.8
4,142
-3.5
0.9
21,913
-5.3
2,890
13.2
1,228
169
1,019
2,512
1,046
3,558
393
11.0
3,165
2,234
-2.8

1Q
6.06
1.7
4,352
1.9
5.1
26,378
3.7
5,757
21.8
1,197
161
1,434
5,832
948
6,780
1,579
23.3
5,200
4,473
22.9

CY14
2Q
5.84
7.1
4,631
7.8
6.4
27,064
15.4
5,741
21.2
1,242
203
1,518
5,815
0
5,815
1,728
29.7
4,087
4,087
26.1

3QE
5.13
5.0
4,511
9.9
-2.6
23,143
15.4
3,685
15.9
1,275
200
1,100
3,310
0
3,310
977
29.5
2,334
2,334
73.3

4QE
5.75
8.7
4,710
13.7
4.4
27,098
23.7
5,027
18.6
1,308
188
1,198
4,729
0
4,729
1,423
30.1
3,306
3,306
47.9

CY13

CY14E

21.60
-1.8
4,207
-4.4
0.0
90,868
46.1
15,482
17.0
4,901
651
4,349
14,280
3,269
17,549
4,603
26.2
12,946
10,464
-32.2

22.79
5.5
4,550
8.2
0.0
103,682
46.5
20,210
19.5
5,022
752
5,250
19,686
948
20,633
5,707
27.7
14,927
13,979
33.6

September 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

Birla Corporation
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)

Y/E March
2014 2015E
Sales
29.7 34.3
EBITDA
2.1
4.4
NP
1.3
3.1
Adj.EPS (INR)
16.9 40.5
EPS Gr. (%)
-51.9 140.5
BV/Sh. (INR) 328.0 358.1
RoE (%)
5.1 11.3
RoCE (%)
6.1 11.7
Payout (%)
55.5 25.8
Valuations
P/E (x)
28.1 11.7
P/BV (x)
1.4
1.3
EV/EBITDA
13.5
6.1
EV/Ton(USD)
49.5 46.8

BCORP IN
77.0

CMP: INR474

Buy

We expect 2QFY15 volumes to grow 8% YoY (decline 2.7% QoQ) to

2m tons. Average realizations are likely to decline 5% QoQ (increase
615/202
7% QoQ) to INR3,788/ton.
-13/ 45/95
EBITDA margin is likely to expand 1pp YoY (shrink 5.7pp QoQ) to
9.2%. EBITDA/ton (including non-cement business) would increase by
INR56/ton YoY (decline by ~INR252/ton QoQ) to INR372/ton.
2016E 2017E
Despite overall improvement in cost efficiencies in Rajasthan plant,
39.7 44.0
lower realizations and negative operating leverage would hurt
6.8
9.3
profitability. PAT is likely to grow 2.2% YoY to INR425m.
4.6
6.1
60.0 79.4 We are raising our EPS estimates by 3-4% to factor in lower total cost.
The stock trades at 7.9x FY16E EPS, and at an EV of 3.6x FY16E EBITDA
48.1 32.3
and USD43/ton. Maintain Buy with target price of INR666 (FY16E EV
406.5 474.3
of
USD70/ton).
14.8 16.7
36/1

15.5
19.4

19.0
14.6

7.9
1.2
3.6
42.9

6.0
1.0
2.1
34.4

Key issues to watch for

Volume growth recovery and outlook
Cement pricing outlook and sustainability
Timeline over clarity on Rajasthan mining permission
New expansion plan

Quarterly Performance

(INR Million)

Y/E March
Cement Sales (m ton)
YoY Change (%)
Cement Realization
YoY Change (%)
QoQ Change (%)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
Profit before Tax
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
EO Income/(Expense)
PAT
Margins (%)
YoY Change (%)
E: MOSL Estimates

October 2014

1Q
1.84
13.0
3,924
-2.4
9.6
7,720
17.3
668
8.7
302
207
367
525
66
12.5
460
0
460
6.0
-45.7

FY14
2Q
3Q
1.85
1.81
17.3
16.5
3,541
3,579
-10.0
-5.4
-9.8
1.1
7,107
7,098
13.3
15.9
585
299
8.2
4.2
311
319
249
202
422
323
448
101
32
-59
7.1
-58.0
416
160
0
0
416
160
5.9
2.3
-48.2
-50.4

4Q
1.91
11.6
3,753
4.8
4.8
7,780
16.9
555
7.1
393
198
485
448
186
41.6
262
-109
326
4.2
-55.1

1Q
2.06
11.7
3,988
1.6
6.3
8,593
11.3
1,283
14.9
391
192
576
1,276
281
22.0
995
0
995
11.6
116.4

FY15
2QE
2.00
8.0
3,788
7.0
-5.0
8,106
14.1
745
9.2
395
205
400
545
120
22.0
425
0
425
5.2
2.2

3QE
1.99
10.0
3,888
8.6
2.6
8,261
16.4
954
11.5
395
215
350
694
153
22.0
541
0
541
6.5
238.3

4QE
2.10
10.3
4,146
10.5
6.6
9,383
20.6
1,441
15.4
395
213
654
1,487
327
22.0
1,160
0
1,160
12.4
255.9

FY14

FY15

7.41
14.5
3,700
-3.3
0.0
29,705
15.9
2,107
7.1
1,326
856
1,598
1,523
225
14.8
1,298
-109
1,391
4.7
-48.5

8.15
10.0
3,955
6.9
0.0
34,344
15.6
4,423
12.9
1,576
826
1,980
4,001
880
22.0
3,121
0
3,121
9.1
124.4

September 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

Grasim Industries
Bloomberg

GRASIM IN

Equity Shares (m)

91.7

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

326/5

52-Week Range (INR)

EPS Gr. (%)

BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
EV/Ton(USD)

2014
290.0
45.9
27.6
215.1
-26.1
2,353
9.1
12.9
10.1

We expect Vilayat expansion to drive VSF volume growth of 7.5% YoY

(16% QoQ) to 100,002 tons. VSF realizations would decline 2% YoY
(remain flat QoQ) to INR119/kg.

We assume cement price/kg at INR120/124 for FY15/16. We expect

standalone EBITDA margin to decline 9pp YoY (expand 0.8pp QoQ) to
9.6%; QoQ expansion would be led by moderating pulp prices.

4/ 4/-4

Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)

2015E
337.8
54.3
29.5
240.4
11.7
2,569
9.4
13.2
10.2

2016E
403.1
78.8
45.3
350.7
45.9
2,894
12.1
17.8
7.4

16.5 14.8 10.1

1.5
1.4
1.2
9.9
8.9
5.9
128.0 123.9 109.5

Buy

3,755/2,432

1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

Y/E March
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
Adj. EPS

CMP: INR3,550

2017E
470.4 EBITDA is likely to decline 43% YoY (grow 19% QoQ) to INR1.5b,
102.2
translating into PAT of INR2.3b de-growth of 42% YoY.
59.9
421.6 The stock trades at 10.1x FY16E consolidated EPS, and at an EV of
5.9x FY16E EBITDA and USD109/ton. Maintain Buy, with a target price
20.2
of INR4,729 (FY16E SOTP).
3,291
12.8
22.1
5.9
8.4
1.1
4.4
99.2

Key issues to watch for

Outlook on VSF business and strategy to utilize upcoming
capacities globally
Outlook on cement demand and pricing, and status of capacity
addition

Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
(Standalone)
VSF Volume (ton)
YoY Change (%)
VSF Realization (INR/ton)
YoY Change (%)
QoQ Change (%)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO Items
Extraordinary Inc/(Exp)
PBT after EO Items
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adj. PAT
YoY Change (%)
E: MOSL Estimates

October 2014

(INR Million)
1Q
77,518
0.7
116,501
-9.0
-2.2
11,489
-7.3
2,025
17.6
484
78
958
2,420
8
2,429
167
6.9
2,261
2,254
-17.4

FY14
2Q
3Q
93,025
97,049
9.0
23.5
121,590 121,590
-4.0
-0.1
4.4
0.0
14,055
14,558
4.5
19.8
2,613
1,945
18.6
13.4
530
547
95
134
2,213
492
4,201
1,757
184
27
4,385
1,783
250
522
5.7
29.3
4,135
1,261
3,962
1,242
3.5
-37.3
-0.3252

4Q
99,385
4.4
119,150
0.0
-2.0
15,284
11.0
1,382
9.0
635
109
835
1,472
72
1,544
242
15.7
1,303
1,242
-41.7

1Q
86,389
11.4
119,000
2.1
-0.1
14,236
23.9
1,257
8.8
529
56
703
1,374
0
1,374
316
23.0
1,058
1,058
-53.0

FY15
2QE
3QE
100,002
106,754
7.5
10.0
119,000
120,500
-2.1
-0.9
0.0
1.3
15,634
16,667
11.2
14.5
1,493
1,815
9.6
10.9
680
700
75
80
2,250
750
2,988
1,785
0
0
2,988
1,785
687
410
23.0
23.0
2,301
1,374
2,301
1,374
-41.9
10.7
0.016097

4QE
110,530
11.2
121,584
2.0
0.9
17,121
12.0
1,817
10.6
702
82
1,047
2,080
0
2,080
479
23.0
1,601
1,601
29.0

FY14

FY15

366,977
9.2
119,854
-3.1

403,675
10.0
120,104
0.2

55,386
6.9
7,964
14.4
2,196
415
4,497
9,850
291
10,141
1,181
11.6
8,960
8,703
-18.1

63,658
14.9
6,381
10.0
2,611
293
4,750
8,227
0
8,227
1,892
23.0
6,335
6,335
-27.2

September 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

India Cements
Bloomberg

ICEM IN

Equity Shares (m)

307.2

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

34/1

52-Week Range (INR)

EPS Gr. (%)

BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
EV/Ton(USD)

2014
44.4
5.4
-0.5
-7.9
-235.7
125.4
-1.3
4.2
0.0
-14.2
0.9
11.8
74.7

We expect volumes to decline 5% YoY (9% QoQ) to 2.32m tons.

Strong pricing uptick in the South in June, with higher resilience in
July and August, should support 2QFY15 realizations. We estimate
10.4% YoY (7.1% QoQ) growth in realizations to INR4,544/ton.

We estimate EBITDA at INR1.8b and expect EBITDA margin to expand

by 4.6pp YoY (3.4pp QoQ) to 16.3%, translating into PAT of INR236m
(v/s negative INR30m in 1QFY15). Pure cement EBITDA/ton would
increase by ~INR154 QoQ to INR602/ton.

-1/ 65/84

Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)

Neutral

134/46

1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

Y/E March
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj. EPS

CMP: INR112

2015E 2016E 2017E

48.3 57.4 68.6
6.7
9.8 13.1
0.4
2.9
5.3
The stock trades at 10.5x FY16E EPS, and at an EV of 6.2x FY16E
1.8 10.7 19.0
EBITDA and USD70/ton. Maintain Neutral, with a target price of
-122.4 504.9 78.1
INR114 (FY16E EV of USD70/ton).
124.2 130.2 143.9
1.0
7.4 12.5
5.8 10.2 14.4
195.5 36.9 20.3
63.6
0.9
9.5
75.0

10.5
0.9
6.2
70.4

5.9
0.8
4.2
63.9

Key issues to watch for

Demand and pricing outlook, especially in South India
Timeline and capex plan for TN expansion of 2.6m tons
Further clarity on management thought process in IPL demerger

Quarterly Performance (Standalone)

Y/E March
Sales Dispatches (m ton)
YoY Change (%)
Realization (INR/ton)
YoY Change (%)
QoQ Change (%)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO expense
Extra-Ord expense
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
Margins (%)
E: MOSL Estimates

October 2014

1Q
2.65
11.3
4,188
-6.2
-0.8
12,384
3.1
1,910
15.4
680
999
25
257
0
257
89
34.6
168
168
-77.5
1.4

FY14
2Q
3Q
2.44
2.29
-2.9
-5.2
4,116
4,429
-5.5
1.5
-1.7
7.6
10,859
10,365
-3.3
-4.2
1,276
1,444
11.7
13.9
682
686
988
773
80
19
-314
4
0
0
-314
4
-89
0
28.3
0.0
-225
4
-225
4
-145.9
-98.4
-2.1
0.0

4QE
2.65
-4.4
4,009
-5.0
-9.5
10,801
-9.3
742
6.9
716
778
272
-480
1,091
-1,571
0
0.0
-1,571
-480
-282.2
-4.4

1Q
2.56
-3.4
4,244
1.4
5.9
12,262
-1.0
1,578
12.9
662
967
22
-30
0
-30
0
0.0
-30
-30
-117.6
-0.2

FY15
2QE
3QE
2.32
2.48
-5.0
8.0
4,544
4,394
10.4
-0.8
7.1
-3.3
11,219
11,092
3.3
7.0
1,827
1,149
16.3
10.4
680
706
860
860
50
60
337
-357
0
0
337
-357
101
-107
30.0
30.0
236
-250
236
-250
NA
NA
2.1
-2.3

(INR Million)
FY14
FY15E
4QE
2.92
10.0
4,650
16.0
5.8
13,706
26.9
2,149
15.7
748
868
38
571
0
571
162
28.4
409
409
NA
3.0

10.04
-0.2
4,178
-4.2
0.0
44,409
-3.4
5,371
12.1
2,764
3,537
396
-533
1,091
-1,624
0
0.0
-1,624
-533
-130.2
-1.2

10.27
2.4
4,464
6.8
0.0
48,280
8.7
6,703
13.9
2,796
3,555
170
522
0
522
157
30.0
365
365
NA
0.8

September 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

Jaiprakash Associates
Bloomberg

JPA IN

Equity Shares (m)

2,219.1

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

59/1

52-Week Range (INR)

90/24

1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

-43/ -70/-61

Sales

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

131.2

147.0

167.7

181.1

32.5

38.6

44.7

47.2

NP

0.9

2.9

8.7

11.5

Adj. EPS (INR)

0.4

1.3

3.9

5.2

EPS Gr. (%)

-81.4

210.6

201.8

31.7

BV/Sh. (INR)

61.7

62.7

65.8

69.8

RoE (%)

0.7

2.1

6.1

7.7

RoCE (%)

6.9

8.1

9.6

10.2

5.14

22.8

22.8

22.8

64.6

20.8

6.9

5.2

P/BV (x)

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

EV/ EBITDA (x)

9.0

7.6

6.5

5.9

Div. Yield (%)

0.3

1.0

2.9

3.8

EBITDA

Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)

Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)

Y/E March

CMP: INR27

Buy

In 2QFY15, we expect Jaiprakash Associates (JPA) to post revenue of

INR35.2b, EBITDA of INR9.4b and net profit of INR435m.
In the Cement business, we have assumed realization of INR4,593/t
v/s INR4,021/t YoY. We have estimated volumes of 3.6mt, up 6% YoY.
EPC division's revenue is expected at INR14.5b, flat YoY, and EBIT
margin of 30%, flat YoY.
JPA has entered into a Business Transaction Agreement (BTA) with
Shree Cement Ltd for the sale of its 1.5mtpa cement grinding unit at
Panipat, Haryana. Further, as per media reports, JPA is also
considering to sell its Rewa cement plant to UltraTech Cement Ltd.
JSWEL has signed a binding MoU for the 100% acquisition of three
operational plants of JPAs subsidiary, JPVL.
Recently, JPA completed a QIP offering of USD250m to be utilized for
debt repayment.
We expect JPA to post standalone net profit of INR2.9b in FY15E (up
2.1x YoY) and INR8.7b in FY16E (up 2x YoY). The stock trades at a
reported PER of 6.9x FY16E.

Key issues to watch out

Cement realizations and cost.
Update on further disinvestment.
EPC divisions profitability and visibility on revenue/order book.
Ramp-up in real estate division, revenue recognition.

Quarterly Performance

(INR Million)

Y/E March
Sales

FY14

FY15

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2QE

3QE

4QE

33,149

31,761

31,378

34,026

29,937

35,234

37,661

44,195

FY14

FY15E

129,732

147,027

Change (%)

11.9

6.5

-7.7

-11.9

-9.7

10.9

20

29.9

-1.8

13.3

EBITDA
Change (%)
As of % Sales

7,847
1.7
23.7

7,904
2.5
24.9

7,189
-5.7
22.9

8,718
2.5
25.6

7,550
-3.8
25.2

9,420
19.2
26.7

9,451
31.5
25.1

12,174
39.6
27.5

31,080
-2.1
24

38,595
24.2
26.3

Depreciation
Interest
Other Income

1,943
5,900
371

1,962
6,542
1,245

1,968
7,515
441

1,862
7,564
905

2,146
7,896
479

2,150
7,000
390

2,175
6,800
410

2,198
6,232
320

7,736
27,521
3,539

8,669
27,928
1,599

4,038

-4

PBT
Tax
Effective Tax Rate (%)

4,327
982
22.7

656
-206
-31.4

-1,854
-968
52.2

275
-730
-265.8

-2,017
-1,211
60

660
224
34

886
301
34

4,064
1,385
34.1

3,400
-737
-21.7

3,593
699
19.5

Reported PAT
Adj PAT

3,345
207

862
851

-886
-885

1,005
927

-806
-803

435
435

585
585

2,680
2,680

4,138
932

2,894
2,898

Change (%)

-85

-33.5

-180.3

-22.3

-486.9

-48.8

-166.1

189.2

-81.1

211.1

Extra-ordinary income

E: MOSL Estimates

October 2014

September 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

Shree Cement
Bloomberg

SRCM IN

Equity Shares (m)

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)

Y/E June
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
EV/Ton(USD)

2014 2015E
58.8 73.3
13.8 18.9
7.7
9.6
222.2 274.7
-23.0 23.7
1,352 1,598
18.1 18.6
19.0 21.6
11.4 10.6

34.8

CMP: INR8,408

Buy

We expect 1QFY15 cement volumes to grow 14% YoY (flat QoQ) to

3.72m tons (including clinker). Realizations are likely to grow 13.8%
8,810/3,988
YoY (decline 5% QoQ) to INR3,794/ton. QoQ deterioration in
7/ 30/67
realizations and negative operating leverage would lead to QoQ
decline of INR298/ton in cement profitability to INR872/ton.
We expect merchant power sale of 423m units (v/s 498m units in
2016E 2017E
4QFY14 and 417m units in 1QFY14) at ~INR3.5/unit (v/s INR3.36/unit
90.9 109.0
in 4QFY14 and INR3.85/unit in 1QFY14). We estimate power EBITDA
27.0 35.8
contribution at INR148m (v/s -INR10m in 4QFY14 and INR310m in
15.5 23.0
1QFY14). Adjusted PAT would be INR1.6b (v/s INR2.6b in 4QFY14 and
443.7 661.3
INR1.7b in 1QFY14).
61.5 49.0
2,007 2,627 We are cutting our EPS estimate by 1.2% for FY15 but raising our EPS
estimate for FY16 by 4.9% to factor in marginally higher volumes and
24.6 28.5
realizations.
28.2 33.6
7.9
6.1 The stock trades at 19x FY16E EPS, and at an EV of 9.8x FY16E
EBITDA and USD179/ton. Maintain Buy, with a target price of
19.0 12.7
INR9,130 (FY16E EV of USD200/ton).
293/5

37.8 30.6
6.2
5.3
4.2
3.2
20.3 15.2
9.8
6.6
245.0 190.9 178.5 158.6

Key issues to watch for

Volume and pricing outlook for North India
Pet-coke price trend and update on any forward agreements for
merchant power
Update on planned expansion and progress in capex plans

Quarterly Performance

(INR Million)

Y/E June
Sales Dispat. (m ton)
YoY Change (%)
Realization (INR/Ton)
YoY Change (%)
QoQ Change (%)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO Exp
Extra-Ord Expense
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
E:MOSL Estimates

October 2014

1Q
3.26
7.2
3,334
-12.6
-6.8
12,475
-3.8
2,494
20.0
1,139
312
740
1,783
11
1,773
50
2.8
1,722
1,732
-24.3

FY14
2Q
3.44
14.7
3,430
-7.9
2.9
13,170
-7.8
2,694
20.5
1,156
309
111
1,339
32
1,308
153
11.7
1,155
1,183
-48.0

3Q
3.84
17.8
3,863
10.4
12.6
16,600
16.2
4,261
25.7
1,667
363
546
2,777
59
2,719
494
18.2
2,225
2,273
-17.1

4Q
3.72
17.3
3,994
11.6
3.4
16,514
14.6
4,335
26.2
1,538
308
568
3,057
-255
3,312
542
16.4
2,770
2,557
-10.1

1Q
3.72
14.0
3,794
13.8
-5.0
15,585
24.9
3,388
21.7
1,775
325
750
2,038
0
2,038
428
21.0
1,610
1,610
-7.1

FY15E
2Q
3Q
3.88
4.41
13.0
15.0
3,894
4,194
13.5
8.6
2.6
7.7
16,574
20,411
25.8
23.0
3,840
5,680
23.2
27.8
1,775
1,900
325
320
150
550
1,890
4,010
0
0
1,890
4,010
397
842
21.0
21.0
1,493
3,168
1,493
3,168
26.2
39.4

4Q
4.38
17.8
4,341
8.7
3.5
20,767
25.8
6,002
28.9
2,001
324
500
4,177
0
4,177
877
21.0
3,300
3,300
29.1

FY14

FY15E

14.25
14.4
3,672
1.2
0.0
58,759
5.5
13,784
23.5
5,499
1,292
1,964
8,957
-154
9,111
1,238
13.6
7,872
7,739
-23.0

16.39
15.0
4,072
10.9
0.0
73,337
24.8
18,909
25.8
7,451
1,294
1,950
12,115
0
12,115
2,544
21.0
9,571
9,571
23.7

10

September 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

Ultratech Cement
Bloomberg

UTCEM IN

Equity Shares (m)

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

274.4
720/12

CMP: INR2,625

2,868/1,635
3/ 1/8

Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)

Y/E March
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
EV/Ton(USD)

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

200.8 245.4 298.5 360.8

36.2 46.8 67.3 92.8
20.7 24.7 37.5 54.5
75.6 90.0 136.7 198.7
-21.2 19.0 52.0 45.3
623.5 701.0 824.9 1006.2
12.8 13.6 17.9 21.7
14.4 15.7 19.4 24.9
13.5 12.9
9.3
8.8
34.7 29.2 19.2 13.2
4.2
3.7
3.2
2.6
19.2 15.7 10.9
7.3
190.5 185.8 178.1 165.0

Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Sales (m ton)
YoY Change (%)
Grey Cem Realn.(INR/ton) *
YoY Change (%)
QoQ Change (%)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO expense
Extra-Ord expense
PBT after EO Expense
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)

October 2014

1Q
10.09
-2.3
4,120
0.0
2.7
49,575
-2.3
10,491
21.2
2,521
660
1,882
9,192
0
9,192
2,466
26.8
6,726
6,726
-13.6

Buy

We expect cement volumes to grow 11% YoY (decline 12% QoQ) to

10.25m tons. Realizations are likely to grow 5.1% YoY (1.5% QoQ) to
INR4,177/ton.
White cement volumes would grow 9.1% YoY and realizations would
grow 6% YoY. RMC volumes would grow 9.6% YoY but realizations
would decline 7% YoY.
We estimate grey cement EBITDA at INR650/ton (-INR97/ton QoQ).
EBITDA margin would decline 2pp QoQ (expand 1.1pp YoY) to 15.8%.
Overall EBITDA is likely to grow 25% YoY (decline 19% QoQ) to
INR8.2b. PAT would grow 19.6% YoY to INR3.2b.
The stock trades at 19.2x FY16E EPS, and at an EV of 10.9x FY16E
EBITDA and USD178/ton. Maintain Buy with a target price of
INR3,219 (FY16E EV of USD200/ton).

Key issues to watch for

Volume growth recovery and outlook
Cement pricing outlook and sustainability
Future expansion strategy and capex plan
Update on financial performance of Star Cement, UAE

FY14
2Q
3Q
4Q
9.23
9.98
12.18
-0.6
0.4
9.4
3,973
3,936
3,974
-5.8
-2.8
-0.9
-3.6
-0.9
1.0
45,021 47,864 58,319
-4.2
-1.5
8.2
6,597
7,641 11,429
14.7
16.0
19.6
2,573
2,645
2,785
888
905
739
574
996
1,858
3,711
5,088
9,763
0
0
-956
3,711
5,088 10,719
1,070
1,391
2,340
28.8
27.3
21.8
2,641
3,698
8,379
2,641
3,698
7,632
-52.0
-38.5
5.1

1Q
11.70
16.0
4,117
-0.1
3.6
56,495
14.0
10,079
17.8
2,645
1,002
2,557
8,989
0
8,989
2,733
30.4
6,256
6,256
-7.0

FY15
2QE
3QE
10.25
11.28
11.0
13.0
4,177
4,327
5.1
9.9
1.5
3.6
51,878 58,903
15.2
23.1
8,214 11,922
15.8
20.2
3,100
3,200
1,400
1,500
800
900
4,514
8,122
0
0
4,514
8,122
1,354
2,437
30.0
30.0
3,160
5,685
3,160
5,685
19.6
53.8

(INR Million)
FY14
FY15E
4QE
13.71
41.5
46.9
12.5
2.0
13.1
4,543
4,000
4,305
14.3
-2.5
7.6
5.0
73,535 200,779 240,810
26.1
0.3
19.9
17,323 36,160 47,537
23.6
18.0
19.7
3,304 10,523 12,249
1,603
3,192
5,505
1,143
5,310
5,400
13,558 27,755 35,182
0
-956
0
13,558 28,711 35,182
4,031
7,266 10,555
29.7
25.3
30.0
9,527 21,445 24,628
9,527 20,731 24,628
24.8
-89.3
18.8

11

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18