US Strategy Report: 3rd December 2013

Key Headlines

Fundamental Analysis
Market Review
Although yesterdays session was not a massive one, it did release us from the ranges from last week as
markets across the board for the most part sold off at some point during the session. The EURUSD broke lower
in the morning breaching technical support set by Fridays low at 1.3583 despite the fact that most of the
Eurozone manufacturing PMIs bat expectations. In a difficult session in terms of predicting direction, the
EURUSD then proceeded to bounce following the much better than expected US ISM Manufacturing
announced at 57.3. Ultimately, the strong test of the 1.36 handle last week failed and we are now seeing a
broader confirmation of our medium term bearish view. The S&P showed massive confusion on the US data
release with the very positive economic news being offset by tapering fears. US10Y was a straight forward
trade as it would either sell off on risk on or sell off on tapering expectations. Crude oil went bid after a bearish
morning on expectations of the first drawdown in inventories in eleven weeks. The crude strategy yesterday
was caught out and we were hit by quite a few amount of ticks, but decent trades in both the S&P and US10Y
saw us being in the green for yesterdays session.
Today's Fundamental View
The morning session has seen a continued sell off in the S&P and we are now trading relatively firmly below
the 1800 handle on tapering risk. The US10Y has been extremely well correlated and it is morbidly clear that
this is a QE-off move. Our view is now for a December Taper if the Fridays payrolls report shows job creation
in excess of 200k. The EURUSD is surprisingly strong this morning which quite possibly has been spurred by a
much better than expected unemployment claims from Spain. Though this number was negative, we need to
remember it was far better back in the summer months so any Euro strength should not be very long lasting.
The most important afternoon data is IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, and this even has a rather low
importance. Todays strategy will for this reason be short on everything but crude which has now broken up
above three month downward trend channel. Our Long bias is also based on the strong expectations of a
drawdown in the inventories which possibly can see a small continuation in the reversal.
Alternative View
Dovish comments from the Federal Reserve may alter the sentiment.

Market Sentiment: Bearish

US tells China to scrap air zone rules: Pentagon to

deploy surveillance aircraft to Japan

BP wins battle to limit Gulf payouts: Oil group

argued compensation settlement was being
misinterpreted

Investment banks set to cut pay again: Push to put

shareholder returns ahead of employee pay

Drone industry split over Amazon plans: Sector

polarised over deliveries by unmanned aerial
vehicles

PC sales headed for worst year on record

Banks need to embrace technology or die: We

should use our data to give customers exactly what
they want, writes Francisco Gonzlez

End Mexicos disastrous war on drugs: Pea Nieto

seems to have repeated the mistakes that he once
condemned, writes Nik Steinberg

Major Data Releases

DATA

Expected

View

IBP/TIPP Economic
Optimism

43.2

Higher

N/A

N/A

N/A

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E-Mini S&P 500 (Dec13) Futures: 3rd December 2013

Strategy

Short

Entry

1800.00

1st Target

1794.75

2nd Target

1792.00

Stop

1802.00

Key Levels

Comments

1809.00

Yesterdays High

1806.75

R1

1802.00

Pivot

1800.00

Psychological

1797.00

Yesterdays Low

1794.75

S1

1792.00

22nd November Low

th
Entry
25Short

THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN TRADING. A LOSS

INCURRED IN CONNECTION WITH FUTURES TRADING CAN
BE SIGNIFICANT. AMPLIFY TRADING MAKES NO CLAIMS
WHATSOEVER
REGARDING
PAST
OR
FUTURE
PERFORMANCE. ANY STRATEGY IS FOR EDUCATIONAL
PURPOSES ONLY
Please see page 5 for more information

www.amplifytrading.com

EURUSD (Dec13) Futures: 3rd December 2013

Strategy

Short

Entry

1.3595

1st Target

1.3559

2nd Target

1.3524

Stop

1.3600

Key Levels

Comments

1.3651

R2

1.3623

Fridays High

1.3600

Psychological

1.3595

Friday AM Sup & R1

1.3582

Fridays Low

1.3559

Wed Sup/Yday Res/Piv

1.3524

Session Low

th
Entry
25Short

THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN TRADING. A LOSS

INCURRED IN CONNECTION WITH FUTURES TRADING CAN
BE SIGNIFICANT. AMPLIFY TRADING MAKES NO CLAIMS
WHATSOEVER
REGARDING
PAST
OR
FUTURE
PERFORMANCE. ANY STRATEGY IS FOR EDUCATIONAL
PURPOSES ONLY
Please see page 5 for more information

www.amplifytrading.com

US 10yr T-Notes (Mar14) Futures: 3rd December 2013

Strategy

Short

Entry

125.040

1st Target

124.280

2nd Target

124.235

Stop

125.060

Key Levels

Comments

125.180

R2

125.145

Thursdays High

125.060

Fridays Low

125.040

Last Weeks Low

124.310

Pivot

124.280

Morning Support

124.235

Yesterdays Low

th
Entry
25Short

THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN TRADING. A LOSS

INCURRED IN CONNECTION WITH FUTURES TRADING CAN
BE SIGNIFICANT. AMPLIFY TRADING MAKES NO CLAIMS
WHATSOEVER
REGARDING
PAST
OR
FUTURE
PERFORMANCE. ANY STRATEGY IS FOR EDUCATIONAL
PURPOSES ONLY
Please see page 5 for more information

www.amplifytrading.com

Nymex WTI Crude Oil (Jan14) Futures: 3rd December 2013

Strategy

Long

Entry

93.70

1st Target

94.15

2nd Target

94.50

Stop

93.58

Key Levels

Comments

94.50

R1

94.25

Session High

94.15

61.8% November Fib

93.90

Morning Support

93.70

50% November Fib

93.58

Yesterday PM Temp Sup

93.24

38.2% November Fib

th
Entry
25Short

THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN TRADING. A LOSS

INCURRED IN CONNECTION WITH FUTURES TRADING CAN
BE SIGNIFICANT. AMPLIFY TRADING MAKES NO CLAIMS
WHATSOEVER
REGARDING
PAST
OR
FUTURE
PERFORMANCE. ANY STRATEGY IS FOR EDUCATIONAL
PURPOSES ONLY
Please see page 5 for more information

www.amplifytrading.com

Disclaimer
Piers Curran
Head of Trading
Email: piers.curran@amplifytrading.com
William de Lucy
Managing Director
Email: w.delucy@amplifytrading.com
Jack Christiansen
Strategist
Email: jack.christiansen@amplifytrading.com
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