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CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

The Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) transforms environment and security risks into
regional cooperation. The Initiative provides multistakeholder environment and security assessments and facilitates joint action to reduce tensions and increase cooperation between groups and
countries. ENVSEC comprises the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE),
Regional Environmental Centre for Central and Eastern Europe (REC), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as an
associated partner. The ENVSEC partners address environment and security risks in four regions:
Eastern Europe, South Eastern Europe, Southern Caucasus and Central Asia.

ENVSEC, Zo environment network, 2012


This publication has been prepared by Zo Environment Network on behalf of UNEP in the framework
of ENVSEC. Numerous organizations and experts from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia contributed to the publication. The
financial support for the preparation has been provided by the governments of Austria and Finland.
ISBN: 978-2-940490-06-6

CLIMATE CHANGE
IN THE WEST BALKANS
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Editorial and production team:


Jasmina Bogdanovic, Lesya Nikolayeva, Viktor Novikov,
Aleksandra Siljic, Otto Simonett (Zo Environment Network)
Harald Egerer, Pier Carlo Sandei (UNEP Vienna)

The views expressed in this document are those of the authors


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Carolyne Daniel

The designations employed and the presentation of the material


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Text:
Geoff Hughes
Maps and graphics:
Matthias Beilstein, Yann Demont

Photos Goran Pozek

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CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ADAPTATION
IN THE REGION

68
VULNERABILITY

42

GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS AND
MITIGATION

28

CLIMATE CHANGE
IN THE REGION

20

BACKGROUND

08

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

FOREWORD
This report forms part of an awareness-raising
campaign by the United Nations Environment
Programme and the Environment and Security
initiative on the effects of climate change.
Representatives of governments, international orga
nizations, civil society organizations and research
institutions and other experts from the region have
compiled this booklet with the objective of revealing
and explaining the linkages between people and
the environment in the Balkans. Climate change
is a complex process that can exacerbate threats
caused by persistent poverty, by weak institutions
for the management of resources and for conflict
resolution, by a history of broken communication
channels and mistrust between communities and
nations and by inadequate access to vital natural
resources such as water and arable land.
Our intention is to stimulate a policy debate and
to contribute to a society that is better informed
about upcoming environmental challenges, even
tually strengthening the basis for planning for
the inevitable consequences of climate change.
Effective governance and political and economic





stability are crucial to a countrys or a regions


capacity to cope with climate change. Reporting on
these sensitive and complex matters is an essential
component of our work, and we strive to do so
without casting aspersions. Daunting challenges in
terms of climate change exposure, sensitivity and
adaptive capacity are identified in the region, and
we are pleased to observe that the countries are
making progress in developing their strategies for
adaptation to climate change. A number of regional
agreements and initiatives provide a good basis for
enhanced regional cooperation as well.
We hope that this report will be of some assistance
to those who develop climate change policies and
programmes in the region and that it will stimulate
concrete actions that eventually can be reported
back to the world at one of the future global
meetings on climate change.

Jan Dusik
Acting Regional Director for Europe
United Nations Environment Programme

Guest list of the official COP 15 Royal Climate Change dinner in Copenhagen http://kongehuset.dk/publish.php?id=23249
H.E. Prime Minister Sali Ram Berisha (Albania)
H.E. President Stjepan Mesi (Croatia)
H.E. President Gjorge Ivanov (Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia)
H.E. Prime Minister Milo Dukanovi (Montenegro)
H.E. President Boris Tadi (Serbia)

Climate change in the West Balkans: Key findings, trends and projections
ALBANIA1

BOSNIA
AND
HERZEGOVINA

Air temperature change (last half century)

Precipitation change (last half century)

CROATIA

THE FORMER
YUGOSLAV
REPUBLIC OF
MACEDONIA

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

Extreme weather events and


climate-related hazards (19902009)
Water resources availability in the future
(forecast period until 2100)

Health infectious and


vector-borne diseases6
Greenhouse gas emissions (in CO2eq)
for period observed

n.a.

Policy instruments, actions and awareness

Climate observation and weather services


(19902009)

increase, enhancement

decrease, reduction

mostly increasing, improving

variable

Information related to vulnerability assessment and adaptation options is based on the study focused on the Drini River Cascade (area from Kukes up to the Lezha Plain).

Air temperature change covers only 11-year period 1990-2000 compared to reference period (1961-1990).

Precipitation change covers only period 1999-2008 compared to reference period (1961-1990).

Lower river flows are expected although scenarios are to be introduced in Second National Communication; water managers are still using historical climate data to design water
infrastructure and guide management decisions.

Decrease is expected, although further studies are required.

In West Balkan countries reliable health statistics on the impacts of climate change on population health, illness and mortality do not exist, since mandatory health records do not contain information for
such a complex evaluation. According to National Communications under the UNFCCC, estimated data indicate an increase in the number of strokes and mortalities, mostly as a result of higher temperatures.

Greenhouse gas emissions are available only for the base year (1990).

Basic systems providing information on water resources were never rebuilt after the breakdown of the former Bosnia and Herzegovina Hydrometeorological Service during the early 1990s.
One of proposed adaptation measures is the development of a Hydrological Information System.

Sources: Most recent National Communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Produced by ZO Environment Network, 2012.

BACKGROUND

BACKGROUND

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

BACKGROUND

GDP in the West Balkans


constant 2000 USD per capita

Democracy, economic development and even


statehood itself are all less than secure in the
Balkans, a region with a history of conflict. Now, as
the countries of the region strive for individual and
collective stability, they face the additional challenges
brought by climate change, and do so against
a background of new international borders and
dynamic populations with strong ethnic identities.
In spite of these challenges, however, the six West
Balkan countries (the Republic of Albania; Bosnia
and Herzegovina; the Republic of Croatia; the former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia; Montenegro; and
the Republic of Serbia) that are the subjects of this
report have all experienced rising GDP in the 1995
2009 period with the exception of the slight declines
in 2008 corresponding to the global financial crisis. In
addition, all have made progress towards membership
in the European Union. And in perhaps the most
encouraging sign of all, the younger generations
are demonstrating an astonishingly high degree of
bottom-up cooperation across a range of issues.
A series of six maps illustrates the development
of national boundaries in South-Eastern Europe.
The capacity of the region to respond to the effects
of climate change depends to a large extent on
its political stability and the effectiveness of its
governance. As the series of maps suggests, political
stability in the region is a work in progress that may
affect the regions ability to respond effectively to
climate change.
10

7000

Croatia
6000

5000

4000

3000

Montenegro
2000

The former Yugoslav


Republic of Macedonia

Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Albania
Kosovo*
Serbia

1000

0
1995

2000

2005

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with

UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

2009
Source: World Bank, 2011.

R U S S IA

Vienna

Budapest

R U S S IA

AVienna
U STR IA- H U N GARY

Budapest

Zagreb

R U S S IA
R O M A N I A
Bucharest

Zagreb

Budapest
Belgrade
E RY B I A
A U S T RSarajevo
I A - H U N G AS R

R O M A N I A
Bucharest
Sofia

Zagreb
Belgrade
SarajevoMONTENEGRO
S E R B IA

R O M A N I A
Belgrade
Bucharest
Sofia
OTTO MAN
EMPIRE
I T A L Y SarajevoMONTENEGRO
Constantinople
S E R B IA

O T T O M A NSofia
EMPIRE

MONTENEGRO

Congress of Berlin

Constantinople

Constantinople

Congress of Berlin

1878

CZECHOSLOVAKIA
Congress of Berlin
Vienna
Budapest
AUSTRIA
CZECHOSLOVAKIA

Vienna
Zagreb
AUSTRIA
Zagreb

POLAND

SOVIET UNION

POLAND

SOVIET UNION

H U N GARY

Vienna
Zagreb
AUSTRIA

Budapest
CZECHOSLOVAKIA

H U N GARY
Belgrade
Budapest

SOVIET UNION

R OB UML G
A ANR IIA A

Constantinople

B U LGAR IA

TURKEY

I TALY
1923

ALBANIA

G R E E C E

Constantinople

I TALY
1923

ALBANIA

G R E E C E

Constantinople

1923

TURKEY
SLOVAKIA G R E E CU EK R A I N E

Treaty of Lausanne
Vienna

AUSTRIA
Vienna
SLOVENIA
AUSTRIA

Sofia

TURKEY

Budapest
SLOVAKIA
H U N GARY

U K R A I MOLDOVA
N E

Budapest R O M UA K
N RI AA I MOLDOVA
N E
Zagreb SLOVAKIA
C R O AHT U
I AN G A R Y
Vienna
Bucharest
SLOVENIA BOSNIA AND Budapest
AUSTRIA
Zagreb
Belgrade R O M A N I A MOLDOVA
C RHERZEGOVINA
O AHT U
I AN G A R Y
Bucharest
Sarajevo
SLOVENIABOSNIA
B UA LNGIAAR I A
Zagreb AND YUGOSLAVIA
Belgrade R O M
Sofia
C RHERZEGOVINA
OAT IA
Bucharest
Sarajevo
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV
BOSNIA
AND
REPUBLIC OF
B
U LGAR IA
YUGOSLAVIA
Belgrade
MACEDONIA
I T A L Y HERZEGOVINA
Sofia
Istanbul
ALBANIA
Sarajevo
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV

I TALY
1995

Dayton Agreement

I TALY

1995

Dayton Agreement

1995

Dayton Agreement

B U LGAR IA
REPUBLIC OF
YUGOSLAVIA
TURKEY
MACEDONIA
Istanbul
G
R
E
ESofia
C E
ALBANIA
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV
REPUBLIC OF

MACEDONIA

ALBANIA

G R E E C E

TURKEY
Istanbul

TURKEY
G R E E C E

R O M A N I A

B U LGAR IA
Bucharest
Sofia

R O M A N I A
B U LGAR IA

Bucharest
Sofia

Constantinople

B U L GAR IA OTTO MAN


MONTENEGRO
Sofia
Constantinople
ALBANIA
EMPIRE
G R E E C E

I TALY
1913
I TALY
1913

After Balkan Wars

ALBANIA

G R E E C E

OTTO MAN
Constantinople
EMPIRE
OTTO MAN

1913

EMPIRE
CZECHOSLOVAKIAG R E E C E
SOVIET UNION
After Balkan Wars
Vienna
Budapest
AUSTRIA
CZECHOSLOVAKIA

Zagreb

SOVIET UNION

H U N GARY
Budapest
CZECHOSLOVAKIA

H U N GARY

R O M A N I A
SOVIET UNION
Bucharest

Belgrade
Budapest

R O M A N I A

Y U HG UONS GL A
AV
R IYA

Bucharest

Belgrade
Sarajevo

B UA LNG IAAR I A
R O M

Y U G O S LAV IA

Sofia
Bucharest

Belgrade
Sarajevo

B U LGAR IA

Sarajevo

Treaty of Lausanne

S E R B IA
Belgrade
I T A L Y SarajevoMONTENEGRO
ALBANIA
S E R B IA

Sofia
Bucharest

Sofia

Bucharest

S E R B IA
Zagreb
Belgrade
SarajevoMONTENEGRO

R OBucharest
M A N I A

LAV IA
I T A L Y Y U G O S ALBANIA

R U S S IA

R O M A N I A

Budapest
Belgrade

A U S T RSarajevo
IA- H U N GARY

Vienna
Zagreb
AUSTRIA

POLAND

Belgrade
Sarajevo

Treaty of Lausanne

Zagreb

R O M A N I A

Bucharest

Belgrade
Sarajevo

Y U G O S LAV IA

Budapest

AVienna
U STR IA- H U N GARY

Vienna
Zagreb
AUSTRIA

Y U HGUONSGL A
AV
R IYA

R U S S IA

AVienna
U STR IA- H U N GARY

After Balkan Wars

OTTO MAN E M PI R E

I TALY
1878

Budapest
Zagreb

AVienna
U STR IA- H U N GARY

I TALY
1878

R U S S IA

Vienna

B U LGAR IA

LAV IA
I T A L Y Y U G O S ALBANIA

Sofia

Sarajevo

B U LGAR IA

Istanbul

TURKEY

I TALY
1945

ALBANIA

G R E ESofia
C E

I TALY
1945

ALBANIA

G R E E C E

1945

TURKEY
SLOVAKIA G R E E CU EK R A I N E

After World War II

After World War II

After World War II


Vienna

AUSTRIA
Vienna
SLOVENIA
AUSTRIA

Istanbul

TURKEY

Budapest
SLOVAKIA
H U N GARY

Istanbul

U K R A I MOLDOVA
N E

Budapest R O M UA K
N RI AA I MOLDOVA
N E
Zagreb SLOVAKIA
C R O AH
T IUA N G A R Y
Vienna
Bucharest
SLOVENIABOSNIA AND Budapest
AUSTRIA
Zagreb
Belgrade R O M A N I A MOLDOVA
C RHERZEGOVINA
O AHT U
I AN G A R Y
SERBIA
Bucharest
Sarajevo
SLOVENIA BOSNIA
B U LGAR IA
Zagreb ANDMONTENEGRO
Belgrade R O M A N I A
Sofia
C RHERZEGOVINA
OAT IA
Kosovo*
Bucharest
SERBIA
Sarajevo
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV
BOSNIA
AND
REPUBLIC OF
B
U LGAR IA
Belgrade
MONTENEGRO
MACEDONIA
I T A L Y HERZEGOVINA
Sofia
Kosovo*
Istanbul
ALBANIA
SERBIA
Sarajevo
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV
B U LGAR IA
REPUBLIC OF
MONTENEGRO
T
URKEY
MACEDONIA
I TALY
Kosovo*G R E ESofia
Istanbul
ALBANIA
C E

2011

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV


REPUBLIC OF

T UandRtheK
* This designation is without prejudice to positions
on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244
MACEDONIA
T A L onY the Kosovo Declaration
ICJIOpinion
of Independence.
Istanbul
ALBANIA

2011

EY

G R E E C E

T Uand
R the
KE
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244
ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
G R E E C E

2011

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the
ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

11

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS


Szombathely

Graz

A U S T R I A

Szkesfehrvr
Veszprm

Subotica

Sav

Karlovac

Pula

be
Danu

C R O A T I A

Osijek

Timishoara

Brcko

Sarajevo

Split

Pescara

Bijelo Polje

MONTENEGRO

Dubrovnik

Manfredonia

Benevento

I T A L Y
Salerno

Potenza

Taranto

Sofia

Pristina

Tirana

MACEDONIA
Bitola

ALBANIA

Brindisi

Korche

Ioannina

E
Larisa

Kerkyra

Cosenza

Khaskovo

Kavala

Kastoria

Vlor

Arta

Catanzaro

Map produced by ZO Environment Network, February 2012.


* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

Lamia

A G E A N

Volos
Crotone

12

Serres
imo
nas
Thessaloniki
Str

Stara-Zagora
Dimitrovgrad
Krdzhali

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

Durrs

Lecce

Plovdiv

Blagoevgrad

Veles

Gostivar

Slive

Ya

Pernik

Skopje

Veliko Trnovo
Gabrovo

Kyustendil
Shkoder

Bar

Bari

Raz

B U L G A R I A

Leskovac

s
Axio

Napoli

Giurgiu
Ruse

Pleven

Vratsa

Kosovo*

Podgorica

C
S

Foggia

Novi Pazar

BUCURETI

Danube

Nis

Craiova
Vidin

Mostar

Ploieti
Piteshti

Bor

Morava

Kragujevac

Buz

Olt

S E R B I A

i na
Dr

HERZEGOVINA

DrobetaTurnu Severin

One

Braov

Ramnicu
Valcea

Belgrade

Tuzla

Sibiu

R O M A N I A

Panchevo

BOSNIA AND

res
Mu

Sfntu
Gheorghe

l
hu

Novi Sad

Slavonski Brod

Banja Luka

Zadar

Deva

Tisza

v
Dra

Zagreb

Arad

Pecs

Rom

Bacu

Cluj-Napoca

Szeged

Ljubljana
Rijeka

Kecskemet

H U N G A R Y

SLOVENIA
Trieste

Bistria

Zalaegerszeg
n
to
Bala

Klagenfurt

Piatra
Neam

Zlau

S E A

POPULATION AND
MIGRATION
The demography of the Balkans is anything but static.
Populations are ageing, fertility rates are declining
and people are moving from rural to urban areas.
Ethnic distributions within countries have political
implications regarding the rationale for statehood,
and international ethnic migration within the region is
high as is emigration to other nearby states, Europe,
the United States and other western countries.

Population in the West Balkans


millions of people
8
Serbia

7
6
5

Croatia
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Albania

4
3
2

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia


Kosovo*

1
0
1995

Montenegro
2000

2005

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status,


and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the
Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

2009
Source: World Bank, 2011.

13

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

The overall populations in Croatia, Montenegro and


Serbia are declining, and Serbias population, among
the oldest in Europe and with a low fertility rate, is
shrinking by 30,000 per year. In Albania, the fertility
rate has fallen from 2.0 to 1.3 births per woman, and
large numbers of women of child-bearing age have
left the country. Emigration and war reduced the
population in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but accurate
figures are hard to obtain, and a political controversy
is holding up progress on a 2012 census.

Population redistributions have disrupted the


structure of the working age population, changed
the balance in the job market and increased
unemployment. The rural-to-urban movement has
increased the pressure on already inadequate
infrastructure. Many of the best-educated and most
highly skilled workers have emigrated to destination
countries outside the Balkans.

Population over 64 years old

percentage of total population and absolute number per country in 2010

18
16
14
12
10
8

Serbia
Montenegro

6
4

Croatia

The former Yugoslav


Republic of Macedonia

Albania
Bosnia and
Herzegovina

0
1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

400,000

800,000

1,200,000

Source: United Nations, 2011.

14

Szombathely

Graz

A U S T R I A

Szkesfehrvr
Veszprm

Zalaegerszeg

Klagenfurt

Sav

Pula

Subotica

C R O A T I A
Karlovac

Szeged

Osijek

Deva

R O M A N I A

Brcko

DrobetaTurnu Severin

Belgrade

Tuzla

S E R B I A

HERZEGOVINA

Kragujevac

Sarajevo

Buz
Ploieti
Piteshti

BUCURET

Craiova

Bor
Vidin

Giurgiu
Ruse

Raz

Split
Mostar

Pescara

Bijelo Polje

MONTENEGRO

Dubrovnik

S
Foggia

Manfredonia

Benevento
Salerno

Potenza

Taranto

Leskovac

Sofia

Tirana

MACEDONIA

(inhabitants per km)

Kerkyra

50

Crotone

Kavala

Kastoria

Vlor

Ioannina

Population density

Krdzhali

Thessaloniki

Korche

G
Cosenza

Serres

Bitola

E
Larisa

A G E A N

Volos
Arta

Catanzaro

Map produced by ZO Environment Network, March 2012.


* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
Source: LandScan Global Population Database 2007, Oak Ridge, TN, Oak Ridge National Laboratory ( www.ornl.gov/sci/landscan).

Lamia

S E A

15

Slive

Stara-Zagora
Dimitrovgrad
Khaskovo

Blagoevgrad

Veles

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

ALBANIA

Lecce

Plovdiv

Kyustendil

Skopje

Durrs
Brindisi

Gabrovo

Pernik

Gostivar

Veliko Trnovo

B U L G A R I A

Pristina

Shkoder

Bar

Bari

I T A L Y

Napoli

Pleven

Vratsa

Kosovo*

Podgorica

Nis

Novi Pazar

One

Braov

Ramnicu
Valcea

Panchevo

BOSNIA AND

Sfntu
Gheorghe

Sibiu

re
Mu

Novi Sad

Slavonski Brod

Banja Luka

Zadar

Arad
Timishoara

Rom

Bacu

Cluj-Napoca

Tisza

Zagreb

Ljubljana
Rijeka

Kecskemet

Pecs

Piatra
Neam

Bistria

H U N G A R Y

SLOVENIA
Trieste

Zlau

Ya

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

International migrant stock is the number of


people born in a country other than the country
where they live. The data come primarily from
censuses, and the idea is to provide a snapshot
of the situation in a given area on a certain date.
Analysts use extrapolations and interpolations to
reconcile data from different periods or sources.
The 2010 migrant stock figures for the West
Balkan countries indicate the extent of migration
in the region.
Just more than 50 per cent of the more than 4
million emigrants from the West Balkan countries
is living in other Balkan countries or in Italy, Greece
or Turkey. Another 29 per cent is elsewhere in
Europe, and the remaining 21 per cent is scattered
across the globe with significant numbers in the
United States, Canada and Australia. Of the more
than 1.5 million immigrants in the West Balkans,
52 per cent comes from other Balkan countries or
from Italy, Greece or Turkey.

Migration 2010
Albania
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Croatia
Kosovo*
The former
Yugoslav
Republic
of Macedonia
Montenegro
Serbia
4321

Total
0

300

600

900

1200

1500

Stock of Emigrants
Stock of Immigrants

N/A

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC
1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
Source: World Bank, 2010.

16

Age pyramids

Absolute number of people per age category in 2010


Albania

350 230

Bosnia and Herzegovina

115

115

230

350

350 230

115

115

230

350

females

115

115

230

350

350 230 115

100+
90-94
80-84
70-74
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0-4

230

230

115

115

230

350

males

0
0 115 230 350
Thousands

Montenegro

350

350

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Kosovo*

350 230

Croatia

115

350

230

115

115

230 350

115

115

230

Serbia

115

230

350

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status,


and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the
Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

Source: US Census, 2011.

350

230

350

17

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

AUSTRIA

HUNGARY

Ljubljana

Zagreb

SLOVENIA
Rijeka

Novi Sad
Banja Luka

Zadar

Knin
Split

All of these demographic changes reduce the


regions adaptive capacity.

ROMANIA

Subotica

CROATIA
Brcko

BOSNIAHERZEGOVINA
Sarajevo
Gorazde
Mostar

Belgrade
SERBIA
Novi
Pazar

MONTENEGRO
Dubrovnik

Podgorica

Pristina

Kosovo

BULGARIA

Internal migration is also an issue in the West


Balkans as many people leave rural areas to seek
opportunities in the cities. The population of Tirana
has grown from 200,000 to almost 1 million since
the end of the communist era, taxing the citys
infrastructure. Belgrade, Sarajevo and Skopje
have similar situations. Since 1992 the percentage
of the population living in rural areas has declined
in every West Balkan country.

Skopje
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

ITALY

MACEDONIA

ALBANIA
GREECE

Population displacement, 1991-2001


Croatians
Muslims
Serbians
Others (Albanians, Hungarians)
Map produced by ZO Environment Network, February 2012.
Sources: Philippe Rekacewicz; Le Monde diplomatique ( www.monde-diplomatique.fr);
UNEP/GRID-Arendal ( www.grida.no).

18

Emigration from the West Balkans


Number of people born in a West Balkans country living abroad
1000

10 000 100 000 250 000 500 000

Albania

The former Yugoslav


Republic of Macedonia

Finland

Bosnia and Herzegovina


Serbia

Norway

Croatia

* Emigrants from Kosovo and Montenegro are displayed under Serbia.


+ This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with
UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

Sweden

Within West Balkans

Denmark
Map produced by ZO Environment Network, March 2012.
Source: World Bank, 2010 ( www.worldbank.org).

Ireland

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Germany
Poland

Belgium

Czech Republic
France
Switzerland

Hungary

Austria
Slovenia

Other Europe

Croatia
Bosnia and
Herzegovina

Serbia

Other

Montenegro* Kosovo* +
The former Yugoslav
Republic of

Macedonia

Portugal

Albania
Spain

Canada

Italy

Greece

ali
str
Au

United States

Turkey

19

CLIMATE CHANGE IN
THE REGION

CLIMATE CHANGE
IN THE REGION

21

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

CLIMATE CHANGE
IN THE REGION
The Balkan countries experience a range of
climates out of proportion to the size of their
geographic area.
Albania has a Mediterranean climate with mild,
wet winters and hot, dry summers, as does the
southern part of Montenegro and the coastal and
lowland areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The
climate in the remaining areas of Bosnia and
Herzegovina ranges from temperate continental
to alpine. Most of Croatia has a moderately warm,
rainy climate. The far north of Montenegro has a
continental climate, and the central and northern
parts have some characteristics of mountain
climate, but with Mediterranean Sea influences on
temperature and precipitation.

22

The climate of Serbia varies from temperate


continental in most areas to continental in the
mountains to Mediterranean subtropical and
continental in the south-west. The climate in the
former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia varies
from sub-Mediterranean to moderate continental/
sub-Mediterranean to hot continental to cold
continental to a range of alpine sub-climates.

i n

AUSTRIA

AUSTRIA M O L D O V A

H U N G A R Y

SLOVENIA
C R O AT I A
BOSNIA AND

SLOVENIA
R O M A N I A

MONTENEGRO
Kosovo*

R O M A N I A

C R O AT I A
BOSNIA AND

S E R B I A

HERZEGOVINA

M
H U N G A R Y

HERZEGOVINA

S E R B I A

MONTENEGRO
Kosovo*

B U LGAR IA

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV


REPUBLIC OF

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV


REPUBLIC OF

ALBANIA

I T A L Y

MACEDONIA

G R E E C E

B U LGAR IA

ALBANIA

I T A L Y

MACEDONIA

G R E E C E

Change in precipitation, 1951-2006

Change in temperature, 1951-2006

Per cent per year


-0.5 -0.4 -0.3

C per year
-0.005 0

-0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3%

Map produced by ZO Environment Network, March 2012.


* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244
and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
Source: Climatewizard ( www.climatewizard.org).

0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025

Map produced by ZO Environment Network, March 2012.


* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244
and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
Source: Climatewizard ( www.climatewizard.org).

23

Pula

Panchevo

Banja Luka

B O SBALKANS
NIA AND
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST

Brcko

Belgrade

Tuzla

Ploieti

DrobetaTurnu Severin

Piteshti

BUCURETI

Craiova
S E R B I A
Giurgiu
Bor
HERZEGOVINA
Kragujevac
Ruse
Vidin
Sarajevo
The Balkans are getting warmer and are projected significant increase in the incidence of dry days.
Razgrad
to continue on this Split
warming trend generally in In the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Pleven
Mostar
proportion to the expected increase
in global where the frequency and intensity
of floods and
Vratsa
Novi Pazar
Nis
temperatures. Similarly, the region is receiving
droughts
has
already
increased

the sharpest Veliko Trnovo


Leskovac
Bijelo Polje
B U L G A R I A
less precipitation and is projected to experience
in precipitation are expected to occur in
Sliven
M O N T E N E G declines
RO
Gabrovo
Pristina
Sofia
Pescaradecreases, although precipitation patterns
further
the
summer,
along withPernik
the greatest
increase in
Yamb
Podgorica
Dubrovnik
Kosovo*
will continue to vary according to terrain, elevation temperature; winter precipitation is expected to Stara-Zagora
Plovdiv
Kyustendil
and proximity to the sea. The effect of warmer Shkoder
remain unchanged. Serbia has also experienced Dimitrovgrad
Skopje
Khaskovo
temperatures on evaporation, together withBarthe more frequent and intense droughts.
Blagoevgrad Precipitation
VelesBosnia and Herzegovina hasKrdzhali
Gostivar
decline in precipitation,
will
make
the
region
drier.
in
both
Serbia
and
Manfredonia
THE FORMER
YUGOSLAVareas,
REPUBLIC OFand declined in others.
increased
in some
Foggia
Tirana
M Ahas
C Ebeen
D O Nexperiencing
IA
Durrs
All six Benevento
of the West Balkan
countries
conform
to
Montenegro
more frequent
Bari
Serres
the
general
warming
trend,
with
Albania
expecting
extreme
heat
since
1998,
but
annual
precipitation
Bitola
Napoli
ALBANIA
I T A L Y
Kavala
Salerno
more frequent
droughts. In Croatia, a reduction in has remained fairly constant with some fluctuations
Korche
Potenza is attributable
Brindisi
annual precipitation
to
changes
in
around
the
norm,
and
some
analysts
detect a
Taranto
Thessaloniki
Kastoria
Vlor
Lecceand to
the frequency of low-intensity rain days
a slight downward trend.
Zadar

Ioannina

Kerkyra

Cosenza
Crotone

Larisa
Volos

Arta
Lamia

Catanzaro

Map produced by ZO Environment Network, May 2012.

Climate change hotspots


Change in annual precipitation by the 2050s

Present risks intensified by climate warming

Increase

Risk of forest fires

Decrease

Risk of desertification

Temperature increase by 1.7-2.3C by


2050 across the region (depending
on the model and scenario)

Risk of decreasing farming productivity


and risk of failures of rain-fed crops
Sea level rise impacts on coastal erosion
and salt water intrusion

Risk of floods
Drought and heat waves
Projected change in mean seasonal and annual river flow
between 2071-2100 and the reference period 1961-1990
Increase
Stable
Decrease

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
Sources: Global Risk Data Platform ( www.preventionweb.net/english/maps); European Environment Agency ( www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/sensitivity-to-desertification-index-map); European Environment Agency
( www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/projected-change-in-mean-seasonal-and-annual-river-flow-between-2071-2100-and-the-reference-period-1961-1990); Climate Wizard ( www.climatewizard.org);
The Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe (REC) ( www.rec.org/topicarea.php?id=11&section=events&event=12).

24

Zalaegerszeg
n
B al at o

Klagenfurt

Arad Mur
eshu

Subotica

Timishoara

C R O A T I A
Osijek
Slavonski Brod

Sa

va

Pula

Novi Sad

BOSNIA AND

Brcko

Sarajevo

Morava

Kragujevac

Split

Craiova
Bor

Pescara

Bijelo Polje

Dubrovnik

Podgorica

C
S

Manfredonia
Foggia
Benevento

Leskovac

Durrs

I T A L Y
Potenza

Brindisi
Lecce

Taranto

Plovdiv

Stara-Zagora
Dimitrovgrad
Krdzhali

MACEDONIA

Bitola
Korche

Kerkyra
Crotone

Str

imo Serres
nas

E
Larisa

A G E A N

Volos
Arta
Lamia

Catanzaro

Kavala

Thessaloniki

Kastoria

Vlor

Ioannina

S E A

Map produced by ZO Environment Network, May 2012.

Climate change hotspots


Change in annual precipitation by the 2050s

Slive

Gabrovo
Tundzh

Khaskovo

Blagoevgrad

Veles

Veliko Trnovo

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

Tirana

G
Cosenza

Sofia

Kyustendil

Skopje

ALBANIA

Salerno

B U L G A R I A
Pernik

Kosovo*

Gostivar

Bari

Pristina

Shkoder

Bar

Raz

Vratsa

Nis

s
Axio

Napoli

Novi Pazar

MONTENEGRO

Giurgiu
Ruse

Pleven

BUCURET

Danube

Vidin

Mostar

Ploieti
Piteshti

Olt

S E R B I A

i na
Dr

HERZEGOVINA

Zadar

Braov

Buz

Ramnicu
Valcea

Belgrade

Tuzla

Sibiu

DrobetaTurnu Severin

One

Sfntu
Gheorghe

R O M A N I A

Panchevo

Banja Luka

Deva

a
Tisz

Karlovac

Rijeka

Rom

Bac

Cluj-Napoca

Szeged

Pecs

Dr

Zagreb

Ljubljana

av
a

Piatra
Neam

Bistria

Kecskemet

H U N G A R Y

SLOVENIA
Trieste

Zlau

Siret

A U S T R I A

Szkesfehrvr
Veszprm

Evro

Szombathely

Graz

25
Present risks intensified by climate warming

Risk of floods

Ya

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT AND DEVELOPMENT


SCENARIOS IN THE BALKANS
Scenarios are neither predictions nor strategies, but rather narratives of alternative futures that assist
decision-makers and stakeholders plan in an environment of uncertainty.
The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the European Environment
Agency (EEA) organized a scenario development workshop, Opportunities for development in the
West Balkans in the context of climate change impacts and water scarcity, held in Belgrade, Serbia,
2426 October 2011. More than 40 experts from the region participated in the event, and developed
four separate scenarios based on assumptions about future climate change impacts (low or high),
and about economic growth (sustainable or not). The baseline scenario combines assumptions of low
climate change impacts with unsustainable economic growth.
The workshop participants considered a wide range of driving forces social, technological, economic,
environmental and political across global, regional and local levels of influence. Those drivers
contributing to greater risk included poor education and an inadequate knowledge base; low political
and public awareness; ill-prepared and vulnerable industries; and unsustainable economic growth.
The participants identified the following goals or pathways as essential to reaching the desired future:
Good governance
Education and social awareness
Improvement in general welfare
Political stability
Availability of green technology.

26

West Balkans Scenario Development Workshop


Prospective scenario outcomes

Climate Change Impacts

Prosperous and secure


Equality
Good knowledge base
High quality of life
Effective environmental
policies and management,
including integrated water
management and cross-border
agreements.
Energy mainly from renewable
sources

Prosperous but fragile


Sustainable

Similar to Prosperous and secure,


but :
More intensive resource use
controlled by green technology
Declining groundwater
resources may necessitate
importing water
Decreased hydropower
potential may necessitate
energy imports.

Low

High

Business as usual

Dramatic impacts

Poverty and hopelessness


General scarcity
Drinking water deficits
Water use mainly in agriculture
Some ecosystem recovery
attributable to economic
stagnation.

Similar to Business as usual, but :


A deteriorating environment
and a negative development
spiral
High water scarcity
Unmanaged extreme events
Unsustainable
lead to further environmental
deterioration.

Economic Growth
27

GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS AND
MITIGATION

GREENHOUSE
GAS EMISSIONS
AND MITIGATION

Most of the observed increase in global average


temperatures since the mid-20th century is
very likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change


Fourth Assessment Report

29

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

While the West Balkans are experiencing serious


consequences of climate change, the regions
contribution to the problem is much lower than
in highly developed countries. In 2008, the CO2
emissions for the West Balkan countries range
from slightly more than 1 metric tonne to just over
8 metric tonnes per capita. As a group, their annual
per capita emissions are a bit more than one half

those of the European Union (EU-27) countries,


and a bit more than one quarter those of the United
States. The largest disparity is evident in the total
emissions figures: compared to China, the US
and the EU, the West Balkans emissions barely
register. A brief overview of greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions and mitigation strategies by country
follows.

CO2 emissions in the West Balkans


metric tonnes per capita

Bosnia and
Herzegovina

8
7

The former Yugoslav


Republic of Macedonia
Croatia
West Balkans region
Serbia

6
5

Serbia and
Montenegro

4
3

Montenegro

Albania

1
0

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

CO2 emissions in different regions


metric tonnes per capita

10

0
1995

30

European Union (27)

China
2000

2005

4,000

2,000

West Balkans region

2008

2005

2006

2007
2008
Sources: World Bank, United Nations, 2011.

absolute number in millions in 2008

6,000

15

2004

8,000

USA

20

2003

China
7,031

USA
5,461
European Union (27)
4,186

West Balkans region


0,122

0
Sources: World Bank, United Nations, 2011.

AUSTRIA

HUNGARY

SLOVENIA
CROATIA

ROMANIA

BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

BULGARIA

Kosovo*

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

MACEDONIA

I T A L Y

ALBANIA

Greenhouse gas emissions in the West Balkans


Energy
Transport

Kilotonnes CO2 equivalents

50000

Fugitive emissions from fuels


Industrial processes
Agriculture
Waste

G R E E C E

20000
10000
5000

Removals by land use


change and forestry
Map produced by ZO Environment Network, March 2012.
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
Sources: National Communications under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, latest year available (Albania 2000, Bosnia and Herzegovina 1990, Croatia 2008, Montenegro 2003, Serbia 1998,
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 2002) ( http://unfccc.int).

31

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

AUSTRIA

HUNGARY

SLOVENIA

CROATIA

304

ROMANIA

1108

663

BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA

SERBIA

294

BULGARIA
Kosovo*

MONTENEGRO
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

MACEDONIA

I T A L Y

ALBANIA

182

655

Carbon dioxide emissions, 2008


Kilograms per 2005 PPP $ of GDP
1000
500
200
100

Map produced by ZO Environment Network, March 2012.


* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
Source: World Bank, latest available data ( http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog).

32

G R E E C E

33

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

ALBANIA
Between 1990 and 2000, Albanias GHG emissions
associated with land use change and forestry
declined significantly, while emissions in all other
sectors increased. Because land use change
and forestry represented such a large proportion
of total emissions in the base year (45 per cent),
the total emissions for the country declined in the
period by 3 per cent. The increase in emissions
in the energy sector combined with the decline in
land use change and forestry emissions resulted
in the energy sector having the highest proportion
of total emissions in Albania in 2000. The waste
sector shows the highest percentage increase, but
in absolute terms, waste emissions rose less than
in any other sector except industrial processes.

Albanias mitigation strategies for the energy


sector include switching to power plants that
use cleaner energy sources, and increasing the
efficiency of boilers, refrigerators and motors.
Agricultural initiatives centre on improvements in
the management of manure and grazing systems,
and on crop rotation. New landfills with methane
recovery and solid waste incinerators are intended
to reduce emissions associated with waste. The
strategies related to land use change and forestry
include the development of a sustainable forestry
plan, improvement in forestry management prac
tices and rehabilitation of damaged forest land.

GHG emissions change from 1990 to 2000 in Albania

land use change


and forestry

waste

agriculture

industrial processes

energy
-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

Note: no data available on transport and fugitive emissions from fuels for Albania.
Note: comparison between base year and year with latest available data.

34

200%

250%

300%

350%

Source: Second national communication of Albania, 2009.

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA


Greenhouse gas emissions data for Bosnia
and Herzegovina are available only for 1990,
so no trend analysis is possible. The country
is working with external partners on a project
intended to enable the preparation of its second
communication to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The
second communication will update the GHG
inventory, and include additional gases not covered
in its initial communication. The project aims to
build capacity so that Bosnia and Herzegovina
can develop data and estimates that adhere to the
good practice guidelines of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change.

Bosnia and Herzegovinas initial communication


to the UNFCCC recommends the development of
a national climate change mitigation strategy and
action plan based in part on the findings of the
initial communication, and prepared in conjunction
with work on the second communication.
Develop
ment of the mitigation strategy is to
include a national mitigation policy that relates to
national economic and development plans; the
identification of measures and activities necessary
for implementation; and provisions for the direct
inclusion of the entity-level governments.

35

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

CROATIA
In both 1990 and 2007, the energy sector in
Croatia accounted for almost 70 per cent of the
countrys total GHG emissions. Emissions in the
waste, fugitive emissions, transport and energy
sectors all increased between 1990 and 2007,
while in the agriculture and industrial processes
sectors emissions declined. Absorption of GHG
emissions in the land use change and forestry
sector increased, thus further reducing total
emissions. The highest percentage changes
occurred in transport, land use change and
forestry and waste. The overall GHG emissions
during this period increased by 6 per cent.
Croatia has already implemented an impressive
array of mitigation measures across all sectors,
and has identified additional measures as either
adopted or planned. In the energy sector, the
country has implemented measures to promote
the use of renewable energy sources in electricity
generation, the application of cogeneration and

36

the upgrading of energy efficiency in building


construction, and has plans to construct a 1,000
MW nuclear power plant by 2024. The transport
sector has seen the introduction of biofuel and a
programme to increase the attractiveness of rail
transport. New measures related to industrial
processes are intended to reduce N2O emissions
in nitric acid production and volatile organic
compounds emissions in solvent use. New waste
measures include avoiding and reducing municipal
waste generation, enhancing the recycling of
municipal waste and using landfill gas for electricity
generation. The efficient management of organic
manure is being promoted in agriculture, and in the
land use and forestry sector, efforts are underway
to improve private forest management and to plant
new forests.
Croatia has also undertaken a number of crosssectoral measures and activities related to its
status as UNFCCC Annex I country.

GHG emissions change from 1990 to 2007 in Croatia


land use change
and forestry
waste
agriculture
industrial processes
fugitive emissions from fuels
transport
energy

- 50%

- 40%

- 30%

- 20%

- 10%

Note: Croatia is the only Annex I country from the region and therefore
has committed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 5 per cent as
compared to the base year (1990) during the first mandatory
period (2008-2012) under the Kyoto Protocol.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Note: comparison between base year and year with latest available data.
Source: Fifth national communication of the Republic of Croatia, 2010.

37

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA


The reduction in emissions associated with land
use change and forestry in the former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia between 1990 and
2002 appears to be impressive, but this sector
represented only 2 per cent of the countrys total
emissions in 1990. The energy sector accounts
for the lions share 70 per cent in 2002. Overall
GHG emissions for the period dropped 8 per cent,
largely attributable to the decline in agricultural
emissions.
The second national communication of the former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to the UNFCCC

includes a National Action Plan for Climate Change


Mitigation. In the energy sector, the plan envisions
using natural gas for electric power production,
maximizing the potential of hydropower and
improving energy efficiency. Transport measures
include improvements in the energy efficiency of
vehicles and in public urban and intercity transport.
The waste strategy introduces sustainable
management and measures for waste selection
and recycling, composting and the reduction of
deposited waste. The main strategy in agriculture
focuses on manure management, and in forestry
on afforestation.

GHG emissions change from 1990 to 2002 in the former Yugoslav Republic
of Macedonia
land use change
and forestry
waste
agriculture
industrial processes
fugitive emissions from fuels
transport
energy
- 90%

- 80%

- 70%

- 60%

- 50%

- 40%

- 30%

- 20%

- 10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Note: comparison between base year and year with latest available data.
Source: Second national communication of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, 2008.

38

MONTENEGRO
Montenegros overall GHG emissions decreased
between 1990 and 2003 by 2 per cent, with
the largest contribution coming from land use
change and forestry. While energy emissions
increased slightly in this period, the proportion of
total emissions attributable to the energy sector
increased slightly from 51 per cent to 54 per
cent. The largest percentage change in emissions
came from absorption in the land use and forestry
sector, but in 2003 this sector accounted for only
17 per cent of total emissions.
In its initial communication to the UNFCCC,
Montenegro identifies emission reduction stra
tegies for each sector. Strategies for the energy

sector include combining the production of heat


and electric power, increasing the efficiency of
industrial boilers and replacing coal with liquefied
petroleum gas in industrial boiler rooms and in
the production of high temperature heat. Plans for
the transport sector provide for the replacement
of fossil fuels with alternative fuels and for the
development of a more efficient transportation
system. Strategies for agriculture include the
improvement of manure management and the
encouragement of organic farming. In the land
use and forestry sector, Montenegro intends to
increase the share of highly productive forests, to
rehabilitate damaged forests and to preserve and
enhance woodland habitats.

GHG emissions change from 1990 to 2003 in Montenegro


land use change
and forestry
waste
agriculture
industrial processes
fugitive emissions from fuels
transport
energy
- 80%

- 70%

- 60%

- 50%

- 40%

Note: comparison between base year and year with latest available data.

- 30%

- 20%

- 10%

0%

10%

20%

Source: Initial national communication of Montenegro, 2010.

39

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

SERBIA
Between 1990 and 1998 Serbias GHG emissions
declined by 22 per cent with most of the reduction
coming from the energy sector, which accounted
for 79 per cent of Serbias GHG emissions in 1998.
Emissions in the land use change and forestry and
waste sectors experienced significant percentage
changes, but these sectors represent a small
proportion of overall emissions.
Serbias mitigation plans for the energy sector
include improving energy efficiency and using
more renewable energy sources. Automation,
monitoring and waste energy utilization are the
main strategies for reducing emissions in the

area of industrial processes. In the transport


sector, Serbia seeks to re-establish an efficient
international rail system, repair roads, increase
the level and efficiency of river transport and
cease production of leaded gasoline. New
technologies in coal mine ventilation are expected
to reduce fugitive emissions. The use of biogas
in the production of heat and power for local
consumption in large livestock operations is a
key strategy for reducing agriculture emissions,
and afforestation is the preferred strategy in the
land use change and forestry sector. In the waste
sector, Serbia plans to establish regional landfills
and increase the degree of recycling.

GHG emissions change from 1990 to 1998 in Serbia


land use change
and forestry
waste
agriculture
industrial processes
fugitive emissions from fuels
transport
energy
- 30%

- 20%

- 10%

Note: comparison between base year and year with latest available data.

40

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Source: Initial national communication of the Republic of Serbia, 2010.

A green economy results in improved human wellbeing and social equity, while significantly reducing
environmental risks and ecological scarcities. In
its simplest expression, a green economy can be
thought of as one that is low-carbon, resourceefficient and socially inclusive.

United Nations green economy report

The idea of a green economy emerged from the


recognition that the economy is crucial to the
achievement of sustainability, and that todays
economies fail to account sufficiently for pollution,
resource depletion, declining ecosystem services
and the consequent inequities that affect the poor.
The transition to a green economy would entail
creating the conditions for public and private
investments that include both environmental
and social goals. Such investments would
drive economic growth while reducing carbon
emissions and pollution, enhancing energy and
resource efficiency and preventing further losses
of biodiversity and ecosystem services.

The measures for responding to climate change


both through mitigation and adaptation are
entirely consistent with the green economy model,
as are sustainable development projects. The
difference is that a green economy would take a
more comprehensive approach, one designed so
that all projects meet the tests for sustainability as
a matter of course. The West Balkan countries may
be able to adopt national policies that encourage
a green economy while simultaneously pursuing
separate sustainable development and climate
change adaptation projects.

41

VULNERABILITY

VULNERABILITY

43

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

The ability of the West Balkan countries to respond


effectively to climate change either alone or
together depends on their overall vulnerability,
which is a function of three factors exposure,
sensitivity and the capacity to adapt.
Exposure accounts for the hazards associated
with future climate change as compared to
present conditions. Drought, for example, is a
hazard resulting from higher temperatures and
less precipitation. Sensitivity considers the degree
to which exposure to a hazard causes harm. In
an agricultural region, for example, exposure
to drought may have significant consequences.
Adaptive capacity captures the ability of the social,
economic and political institutions to respond to
the effects of climate change.
The vulnerability index combines indices for
exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
(These separate indices are included in the
sections that follow.) On this relative scale, the
higher scores signify higher overall vulnerability.
Of the five countries included in this analysis,
Albania is the most vulnerable to climate change,
and Croatia the least.

44

Vulnerability index
Tajikistan
Albania
Kyrgyz Republic
Armenia
Uzbekistan
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Turkmensitan
Turkey
Moldova
The former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia

Serbia
Russia
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Kazakhstan
Romania
Belarus
Ukraine
Latvia
Poland
Croatia
Lithuania
Slovakia
Hungary
Estonia
Czech Republic
Slovenia
0

10

15

20

25

Source: World Bank, 2011.

45

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

EXPOSURE AND
SENSITIVITY
The exposure index measures the strength of
future climate change relative to todays natural
variability, and includes both annual and seasonal
temperature and precipitation indicators. It
combines the number of additional hot, dry and
wet years; hot, dry and wet summers; and hot, dry
and wet winters projected over the 20702100
period relative to the 19611990 period. On this
relative scale, the higher scores signify higher
exposure.

Rising temperatures and disruptions in the


precipitation regime are the most significant
exposures for the region. All the countries
in the West Balkans face more frequent and
more intense droughts and floods, and the four
countries with coastal areas Albania, Bosnia
and Herzegovina, Croatia and Montenegro also
face potential hazards associated with a rising sea
level. Exposure to these hazards will play out in
public health and biodiversity and in key economic
sectors water resources, agriculture, forestry,
energy and tourism.

46

Exposure index

Serbia
The former
Yugoslav
Republic
of Macedonia
Croatia
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Albania

10

Note: no information available for Montenegro.

15

20

25

Source: World Bank, 2011.

The sensitivity index is based on indicators likely


to increase the impact of climate shocks. These
indicators include the available renewable water
resources per capita; the extent of air pollution;
the share of agricultural employment and the
value of agricultural assets; the share of electricity
derived from hydroelectric plants; a measure of
the overall quality of infrastructure; and the share
of the population over 65 (who tend to be more
sensitive to climate shocks). The higher scores
signify higher sensitivity.

Sensitivity index
Serbia
The former
Yugoslav
Republic
of Macedonia
Croatia
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Albania
0

10

Note: no information available for Montenegro.

15

20

25

Source: World Bank, 2011.

The sensitivity of the region to its exposure is high,


and centres on the climate change effects on water
resources. As the disruptions in water resources
ripple through the West Balkans, the negative
effects will multiply. In particular, agriculture
may see diminished production and periodic
catastrophic losses, and hydropower may become
less reliable. The socio-economic consequences
are likely to be profound, and the countries of the
region on the basis of exposure and sensitivity
are highly vulnerable to climate change.

47

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

Agriculture has a significant role in the West


Balkans sensitivity to climate change. Almost half
of the land in the region is used for agriculture 19
per cent in pastures and 29 per cent in arable land
and permanent crops. Estimates of agricultural
employment vary, as do survey definitions, but
between 18 per cent and 58 per cent of the working
population is engaged in agriculture, and the sector
is an important employer in the region, maybe the
most important employer. Agriculture, on average,
contributes 17 per cent to West Balkans GDP.
Croatias 6.0 per cent agricultural share of GDP,
the lowest in the region, is still significantly higher
than the EU average of 1.6 per cent.
Higher temperatures combined with more frequent
and intense droughts increase the risk of forest fires,
and the West Balkans are already experiencing
more fires over larger areas more than 38,000
fires that burned more than 450,000 hectares
between 1988 and 2004 in Albania, Croatia,
the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia,
Montenegro and Serbia. No reliable data are
available to estimate the economic losses, but the
environmental damage includes loss of habitat,
soil erosion and greenhouse gas emissions.
The regions exposure to more frequent and
intense floods has implications for the economies
of the countries and for the environment, to say
nothing of the attendant human suffering. Flooding
in 2010 in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Croatia and Montenegro forced 20,000 people

48

from their homes, and caused US$ 450 million in


damage. And in the summer of 2011, heavy rains
overwhelmed the wastewater system in Pristina,
and flooded hundreds of homes causing almost
US$ 500 million in damage.
The mining legacy in the West Balkans raises the
spectre of a flood resulting in an environmental
catastrophe, possibly one with international
implications. Mine tailings the waste material
remaining after metal and mineral extraction
contain complex compounds and residual
chemicals used in the extraction process, and are
held indefinitely in tailings management facilities.
The volume and contamination level of waste
in these facilities can be high, and maintaining
reliable storage and management of the tailings is
a challenge under any circumstances.
Unfortunately, many tailings management
facilities in the West Balkans are abandoned,
neglected or orphaned. Without routine monitoring
and maintenance these facilities deteriorate and
become vulnerable to failure and the consequent
release of toxic contamination. The main
exposure pathways for such releases are rivers,
and the combination of river flooding and tailings
management facility failure poses a major threat
in the region. Such an event within a country
would be bad enough, but when the river crosses
international borders and the event involves more
than one country, dealing with the event becomes
more complicated.

Szombathely

Graz

A U S T R I A

Szkesfehrvr
Veszprm

Zalaegerszeg
n
to
Bala

Klagenfurt

Nere
tv a

Ta
mi

Tirana

Elbasan
complex

Durrs

ALBANIA
Taranto

Brindisi
Lecce

S em

Vlor

Assessed mining site

Serious water pollution


Watershed boundary

an

V jo

Mining sites in the West Balkans


Prioritized mining site

Pleven

B U L G A R I A
Sofia

Podgarec

Korche
se

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV


REPUBLIC OF

MACEDONIA
Bitola

Kavadarci

Plovdiv

Serres
Kavala

G
Ioannina

Kerkyra

E
Larisa

A G E A N

Volos
Arta

Lamia

Gabrovo

S E A

Map produced by ZO Environment Network, March 2012.


* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence
Sources: Zinke Environment Consulting ( www.zinke.at) and Fluvius Floodplain Ecology and River Basin Management ( http://fluvius.com);
Site assessment conducted by ENVSEC in 2006.

49

Slive

Stara-Zagora
Dimitrovgrad
Khaskovo

Thessaloniki

Kastoria

Veliko Trnovo

Krdzhali

ma
Stru

Potenza

Bari

Salerno

Leskovac

Giurgiu
Ruse

Raz
Vratsa

Nis

BUCURET

Danube

ar
Vard

I T A L Y

Craiova

Bardh- Pristina Novo Brdo


Mirash
Pernik
Fushe-Arrez
Kosovo*
Kyustendil
Podgorica
Lojane
Jegunovce
Reps
Sasa
Giegan
Bar
Blagoevgrad
Zletovo
Kurbnesh Tetovo Skopje
Rreshen
Veles
Gostivar
Bucim

Manfredonia

Vidin

Suplja-Stena

Dubrovnik

Bor
complex

Ploieti
Piteshti

Olt

Benevento
Napoli

Stan Terg

MONTENEGRO

S
Foggia

Morava

Bijelo Polje

Buz

Zeta

in a
Dr

tina
Ce

A
Pescara

S E R B I A

One

Braov

Ramnicu
Valcea

Kolubara

Novi Pazar

Mojkovac

Sfntu
Gheorghe

Sibiu

DrobetaTurnu Severin

Rom

Bac

R O M A N I A

Panchevo

Srebrenica Kragujevac

Sarajevo

Mostar

Zajaca

Tuzla

HERZEGOVINA
Split

Vares

res
Mu

l
hu

Belgrade

Brcko

Bos
na

a
Un

Zadar

Novi Sad

BOSNIA AND

Jajce

Deva

Timishoara

Timok

Banja Luka

Osijek

Slavonski Brod
Vrb
as

Pula

Arad
Tisza

Sav

be
Danu

C R O A T I A

Karlovac K u p a

Subotica

Piatra
Neam

Bistria
Cluj-Napoca

Szeged

Pecs

v
Dra

Zagreb

Ljubljana
Rijeka

Kecskemet

H U N G A R Y

SLOVENIA
Trieste

Zlau

Ya

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
All societies have inherent abilities to deal
with certain variations in climate, yet adaptive
capacities are unevenly distributed, both across
countries and within societies.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Fourth Assessment Report
Adaptation is a risk management strategy that
intends to respond to the inevitable effects of
climate change, and to enhance resilience the
capacity to respond to a change in a function or in
an environmental condition by resisting damage
and recovering quickly. Ecosystems with a higher
capacity to adapt are less vulnerable to the effects
of climate change. For regions or countries or
economic sectors, the capacity to adapt similarly
determines their degree of vulnerability.
The West Balkan countries face several challenges
to their capacity to adapt. Countries with well
established, effective governance and strong,
stable economies have a distinct advantage in
their adaptive capacity. As the recent history of
conflict in the region recedes into the past, the
Balkan countries are experiencing varying levels of
success in establishing effective governance and
in bringing stability and growth to their economies.
A countrys adaptive capacity may be evidenced
at the systemic level (governance, economy), the
institutional level (ministries, organizations) and at
the individual level (household, farm).

50

All of the Balkan countries aspire to membership


in the European Union, and a countrys status with
respect to EU membership is an indicator of its
stability. The framework for EU negotiations with
the West Balkan countries is actually called the
Stabilisation and Association1 process, which has
three goals:
The stabilization of the countries and the
encouragement of their swift transition to
market economies
The promotion of regional cooperation
Eventual membership in the EU
Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia all enjoy
official candidate status, and Croatia is engaged
in accession negotiations. Albania, Bosnia
and Herzegovina, and Kosovo2 are potential
candidates in the earlier stages of the Stabilisation
and Association process.3

1 More about the process: http://europa.eu/legislation_


summaries/enlargement/ongoing_enlargement/l14536_en.htm
2 This designation is without prejudice to positions on status,
and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the
Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
3 Map of candidate and potential candidate countries: http://
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11283616

The West Balkans countries face many of the


same problems on the path to stabilization
lingering boundary disputes and ethnic enclaves,
gray economies, corruption, organized crime and
the effects of the global economic crisis. But each
of the West Balkan countries also has its own set
of circumstances and challenges.
The adaptive capacity index combines social and
economic measures income inequality, GDP
per capita with institutional measures of voice

and accountability, political stability and absence


of violence; and an aggregate measure of
government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule
of law and control of corruption. The higher scores
signify higher adaptive capacity. Croatia has the
highest adaptive capacity of the five countries
included in the index. The former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia has the lowest adaptive
capacity, while Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina
and Serbia fall in the middle. Montenegro was not
included in the analysis.

Adaptive capacity index


Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina

Croatia

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Serbia

Note: no information available for Montenegro.

10

12

14
Source: World Bank, 2011.

51

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

ALBANIA
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity

10

In Albania, hydro sources produce more than


95 per cent of the countrys electrical energy,
but as of 2007, only 12 per cent of the countrys
total energy supply down from 25 per cent in
2000. Overall, the share of total demand met by
renewable energy including hydro fell from 42 per
cent in 2000 to 22 per cent in 2007.
Albanias expected increase in long-term mean
annual and seasonal air temperature and
its decrease in mean annual and seasonal
precipitation are likely to reduce long-term
mean annual and seasonal runoff. A 20 per
cent reduction in runoff is projected to cause a
60 per cent reduction in power generation. This
means that while hydropower may be good for
reducing greenhouse gas emissions, reliance
on hydropower can increase the countrys
vulnerability to climate change.

52

15

20

25

The precipitation regime is also important for


agriculture, which is still the backbone of Albanias
economy. Agriculture employs nearly half of the
work force and generates a considerable part of
the national GDP. Emerging sectors (commerce
and services) are diminishing agricultures overall
proportion of the Albanian economy, but agriculture
will continue to dominate.
In the transition from communist rule to multiparty
democracy, Albania has experienced major
political, institutional and socio-economic changes,
and successive governments have grappled with
high unemployment, widespread corruption,
crumbling infrastructure and powerful organized
crime networks, all in a contentious political
environment. Albania has an informal, unreported
economic sector that may be as large as 50 per
cent of the countrys official GDP. The transition
from a centrally planned state to a more modern
openmarket economy has been difficult, but the
government has adopted a fiscal reform package
aimed at reducing the large gray economy and at
attracting foreign investment.

a
Bijelo Polje

rnic

Mojkovac
Kolasin

Vlasotince
Leskovac

Berane

Rozaje

Plav

Pristina

Pernik

Vranje

K o s o v o *

Pec

Herceg-Novi
Podgorica
Kotor

Gnjilane
Orahovac

Urosevac

Prizren

Lake
kee Skadar
Ska
kadar

Va
rd

Pc
in

Skopje

Tetovo
r

Lezhe

s
Tre

Gostivar
Burrel

Lac

Kavaje

Bulqize

Debar

Elbasan

Struga
L kee Ohrid
Lake
O
Ohrid
Lake Prespa

Pogradec

Kucove

Patos Berat

Vlore

Kilkis
Edessa

Gianitsa

Thessalonik

Naousa
Veria

Kastoria

n
mo
liac
Ha

Tepelene

Kozani

on

Katerini

Gravena

Dri

Gjirokaster

Bitola
Florina

Corovode

um
ica
Strumica

Gevgelija

Korce

Str

Sarande

Trikala
0

25

50

75 km

Map produced by ZO Environment Network, March 2012.

Korfu

Korfu

Ioannina

Axios

ma
Se

Kavadarci

Prilep

Lushnje

Fier
Vijo

Radovis

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV


REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

Tirana

ALBANIA

Shkum
b

Kicevo

Stip

Rek
a

n
Erze

Shijak

Mat

Kruje

Blag

Kocani
Sveti Nikole
lnica
ega
Br

Veles

ka

Peshkopi

Mat

ja

Dup
Kriva
Palanka

ma
Stru

Kukes

ja
Bo

Durres

Psac

Kumanovo

Shkoder

Bar

B U L G A
Kjustendil

Presovo

Ha
lia
cm

Dakovica

Cetinje

Ulcinj

Podujevo

Beli Drim

Li

M O N T E N E G R O

Mitrovica

Crna

om
a

Novi Pazar

Karditsa

Igoumenitsa

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

to

53

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity

10

In terms of both exposure and sensitivity, the


situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina is similar to
Albanias. The expected effects from the changes
in temperature and precipitation are the same,
and pose threats to agriculture, forestry, energy
and water resources management. The country
anticipates that the unfavourable spatial and
temporal distribution of water outflows will require
construction of water management facilities of
considerable scale and complexity to permit
the rational use of water resources and the
preservation of water quality and quantity, and to
provide protection from the damaging effects of
water.
The economic importance of agriculture and
forestry, and to a lesser extent, hydropower means
that Bosnia and Herzegovina is highly sensitive to
these exposures. In addition, a lack of alternative
employment options in communities dependent
on these climate-sensitive sectors of the economy
could make the problems worse.

54

15

20

25

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, three levels of


autonomy and up to four administrative layers
make for a complex public administration
system. The country lacks the management and
the technological and economic capabilities to
adapt to climate change at the national level, and
limited public awareness and financial resources
constrain the capacity for individual adaptation
measures. A large share of the countrys economic
activity remains unofficial and unreported.
An analysis of competitiveness in Bosnia and
Herzegovina found that the country ranks at the
satisfactory level on only 18 out of 116 relevant
criteria. Among the problems are underdeveloped
and inefficient financial markets, a weak fiscal
system and inadequate infrastructure, particularly
in water management. The country possesses
considerable water resources, and water is
potentially a basis for economic development, but
the existing water supply infrastructure is in poor
condition and water resources are increasingly
polluted.

Pecs

Subotica

V o j v o d i n a

Sombor

Osijek

Kutina

Zrenjan

Pozega

Un

a
Tis

Sisak

Dakovo

D an u

Vukovar

Slavonski Brod

Sav
a

Novi Sad

be

Tim
is

Kupa

Karlovac

Prijedor
a
Vrb

Bihac

Banja Luka

a
San

Bosanski
Petrovac

sna
Bo

Doboj

B O S N I A

A N D

Jajce

Zadar

Travnik

Brcko
Bijeljina
Tuzla

SERBIA

Valjevo

Zenica

na

Dr
i

Bugojno

a
tin
Ce

H E R Z E G O V I N A

a
va
ret
Ne

Gorazde

l
m

Mostar

Pljevla
Ta
ra

Hvar

N
Bijelo Polje

MONTENEGRO

Korcula

Lim

Brac

Niksic

Trebinje

Berane

Dubrovnik

Pec
Herceg-Novi

50

E
Cacak

Uzice

Sarajevo

Sibenik

Split

Belgrad

Sabac

100

150

Podgorica

200 km

(UN

Lake Skadar

D ri n

Map produced by ZO Environment Network, November 2011.

Bar

Shkoder

A L B 55
ANIA
Lezhe

Kuk

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

CROATIA
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity

10

In Croatia, concerns about water resources extend


to whether the water supply can continue to meet
the ever-growing drinking water requirements.
The main issues in agriculture relate to both water
availability and increased temperature, and focus
on the prospects of diminished water supply, the
greater frequency of droughts and the effects of
heat stress on animals.
The tick-borne virus meningoencephalitis occurs
from spring to autumn in Croatia. Warmer and
longer autumns extend the period of tick activity;
milder winters favour tick survival; and higher
temperatures shift the altitudinal limits for tick
occurrence.

56

15

20

25

Croatia still has boundary disputes with Slovenia


and with Bosnia and Herzegovina, and continues
to battle corruption and organized crime. It is a
member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
and the World Trade Organization, and is a party
to the Central European Free Trade Agreement.
While Croatia has largely achieved macroeconomic
stabilization, deep resistance on the part of the
public and weak political support have inhibited
structural reforms. Long-term growth prospects
remain strong, but difficult problems a stubbornly
high unemployment rate, a growing trade deficit and
uneven regional development still remain. The
global financial crisis will create significant pressure,
and Croatias high foreign debt, anemic export
sector, strained state budget and over-reliance on
revenue from tourism will result in higher risk to
economic stability over the medium term.

Klagenfurt

Kranj

Celje

av

Sombor

Virovitica

Sisak

Subotica

Dr

Karlovac

Szeged

n
Da

Pecs

Zagreb

Trieste

Kutina

S l
a v
Osijek
o n i
a
Pozega

Krk

Dakovo

V o j v o d

SERBIA

Vukovar

Prijedor

Cres

Bihac
Bosanski
Petrovac

Sav a
Brcko

Banja Luka

V
Pag

Zre
Novi Sad

Slavonski Brod

Pula

Doboj

B O S N I A

Bijeljina

A N D

Sabac

Bel

Tuzla

Jajce

Zadar

ka

Travnik

A
d

Sibenik

Valjevo

Zenica

Bugojno

Krin

H E R Z E G O V I N A

Uzice

Sarajevo

Ancona

Hodm

Koprivnica

Novo Mesto

Istria

Kaposvar
Szekszard

S L O V E N I A

Rijeka

H U N G A R Y

Nagykanizsa
Varazdin

Ljubljana

Gorizia

Balaton
Ba

a
av

Jesenice

ITALY

Mu
ra

Maribor
Dr

Cac

Gorazde

Split

Brac

Hvar

S
Teramo

ITALY

t
Korcula

Pescara

Bijelo Polje

MONTENEGRO

a
Dubrovnik

25

Pljevla

Mostar

50

75 km

Map produced by ZO Environment Network, March 2012.

Trebinje

Berane

Niksic

Pec

Podgorica

Herceg-Novi

Bar

Shkoder
57
Lezhe

ALB

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV


REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity

10

Agriculture and industry have been the two most


important sectors of the former Yugoslav Republic
of Macedonia economy, but the services sector has
recently gained prominence. Agriculture is a priority
sector that accounts for a significant proportion of
GDP and employment, and contributes to social
security and poverty reduction.
With its wide range of subnational climates, the
former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia expects
highly varied effects from changes in temperature
and precipitation: projections for the reduction in
effective rainfall vary from 15 per cent to 40 per
cent. Of the countrys available water resources,
84 per cent are formed within its boundaries, so
the country is particularly sensitive to the overall
reduction in effective rainfall. Agriculture will bear
the brunt of the negative consequences, and the
largest effects are expected in central and southeastern parts of the country.

58

15

20

25

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has


capacity constraints at the systemic, institutional
and individual levels. Shortages in resources and
staff are evident in the ministries for the environment
and physical planning, economy, transport, health
and industry. The main economic problems of
the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia are
a low standard of living, high unemployment and
relatively modest economic growth. The official
unemployment rate of 31.7 per cent may overstate
the case because of an extensive gray market,
estimated to be more than 20 per cent of GDP.
A largely obsolete industrial infrastructure has not
seen much investment during the transition to a
market-oriented economy. Labour force education
and skills are competitive, but in the absence
of adequate job opportunities, many of those
with the best skills seek employment abroad.
Despite making extensive fiscal and business
sector reforms, the former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia has so far lagged behind the rest of
the region in attracting foreign investment and in
creating jobs.

Novi Pazar

Ibar

Polje

Vlasotince

Leskovac

Mojkovac
Berane

sin

Mitrovica

Rozaje

Podujevo

Sofia

Li

Pristina
Pec

Pernik
Vranje

Dr
Beli

Dakovica

im

Orahovac

na

Gnjilane

rav
a

K o s o v o *

Mo

Plav

z
Ju

B U L G A R I A
Kjustendil

Presovo

Urosevac

Prizren

ar

Psaca
Kriva Palanka

Kumanovo

der

Kukes

cin

ja

Blagoevgrad

Str

um
ic

Va
rd

Va
rda
r

Re
k

Gevgelija

Crn
a

Struga

Lake Ohrid
Ohrid

St

Elbasan

mbin

Lake Prespa

Kilkis

Bitola

Lushnje
Florina

E
Gianitsa

Veroia

Kastoria

Ha
lia

liac
Ha

hice

n
mo

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo
KozaniDeclaration of Independence.

Vijo
s

Thessaloniki

Korce

su
m
Corovode

Tepelene

Edessa

cm
on

Berat

Pogradec

Seres
rym
o

Axios

ev
oll

n
ma
Se
Kucove

Patos

Sandanski

ar

Shku

Kavadarci

Prilep

Tirana

ALBANIA

Radovis

Strumica

Kicevo

Shijak

vaje

ma

Debar

Stip

Veles

ka

Mat

Bulqize

galn
Bre

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV


REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

Burrel
Kruje

Kocani
ica

Sveti Nikole
s
Tre

Gostivar
Peshkopi

Mat

Stru

Skopje

Tetovo

n
Fa

Lezhe

Samokov
Dupnica

25

50

75 km

Map produced by ZO Environment Network, March 2012.

Katerini

59
Gravena

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

MONTENEGRO
Exposure

No information availble

Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity

10

Montenegros sensitivity to climate change is


highest for forest ecosystems. Most Montenegrin
forests were established by natural regeneration,
and by virtue of their climate and terrain are
characterized by high biodiversity. They are
important producers of biomass, and are sources
of fruits, medicinal herbs and mushrooms. They
provide habitat for wild plant and animal species;
maintain and regulate the hydrological regime;
provide protection from landslides and erosion;
and absorb significant amounts of carbon.
Montenegros highly diverse ecosystems host rich
flora and fauna about 3,250 plant species, with
the highest vascular flora speciestoarea ratio in
Europe. Of the 526 European bird species, 297
can be regularly found in Montenegro, while about
29 other species are occasionally present.

60

15

20

25

In 2007, Montenegro joined the World Bank


and the International Monetary Fund, and is
actively pursuing membership in the World
Trade Organization. The countrys small national
economy was hit by a 2009 recession caused to
a significant degree by negative global economic
trends including the ongoing credit crunch, a
decline in the real estate sector and a fall in
aluminum exports. Montenegro has privatized its
large aluminum complex the countrys dominant
industry as well as most of its financial sector,
and has begun to attract foreign investment in
tourism. Unemployment and regional disparities
in development remain the key political and
economic problems.

Cacak

Moravica

Sarajevo

Uzice

Konjic

Za
pad
na
Kraljevo

Gorazde

BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA

Trsten

Ib

Ivanjica

Mo
rav
a

Priboj

Foca

Ra
sin
a

Prijepolje
ac
Uv

Lim

Ce
hoti Pljevla
na

Mostar

Raska

Sjenica
Ta
ra

Zabljak

Gacko

Novi Pazar
Bijelo Polje

Ko
ma
rni
ca
Bileca

Mojkovac

Shavnik

Ibar

M O N T E N E G R O

Dubrovnik

Plav

eta

Kotor

Podgorica
Cetinje

Orahovac
Rahoveci

Dakovica
Gyakove

Bajram Curri

ri
iD
Bel

Tivat

K o s o v o *

Ce
m

Herceg-Novi

Pec
Peje

Li

Andrijevica

Budva

Prizren

Lake Skadar

Shkoder

Ulcinj

Bo

a
jan

Kukes

Tetovo

A L B A N I A

Va
rd

Bar

Gostivar

Lezhe
0

25

50

Map produced by ZO Environment Network, March 2012.

75 km

Mitrovica

Rozaje

Kolasin

Niksic

Trebinje

Berane

Klin
a

Stolac

Peshkopi

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

Kruje
Shijak

Burrel
Bulqize

Debar

61

Kicevo

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

SERBIA
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity

10

Like most of its West Balkan neighbours, Serbia


faces exposure to the hazards associated with
rising temperatures. Increasingly frequent and
intensive droughts over the past two decades
have already caused great damage to Serbian
agriculture, and crop production is expected to
decline by as much as 10 per cent in second half
of this century. Projections of precipitation show
increases in some areas and declines in others.
Serbias agricultural sector is an important part
of the national economy, and thus increases the
countrys sensitivity to climate change. Serbian
agriculture employs 10 per cent of the work
force, and accounts for 26 per cent of export
revenues. The country relies on the sector for food
security, and it is an essential component of rural
development.

62

15

20

25

With unfinished privatization and incomplete


structural reforms, the economy of Serbia is still
in transition. The countrys economic challenges
include high government expenditures for
salaries, pensions and unemployment; outdated
technologies; degraded infrastructure; and a low
level of domestic investments. Other problems
include a growing need for new government
borrowing combined with rising public and private
foreign debt and stagnant levels of foreign
investment. An inefficient judicial system, high
levels of corruption and an ageing population
add to the difficulties. Serbias strategic location,
a relatively inexpensive and skilled labour force
and a generous package of incentives for foreign
investments are all factors favourable to economic
growth.

H U N G A R Y

Hodmezovasarhely

Szekszard

H U N G A R Y
Pecs

Szeged

Arad

Alba Iulia

Subotica

Mureshu
l

Sombor

Timishoara

V o j v o d i n a
a
Tis

Osijek

C R O A T I A

R O M A N I A

Zrenjanin

Dan
ube Novi Sad

Tim
ish

Vukovar

Slavonski Brod

Hunedoara

Lugoj

Petrosani

Resita
Targu Jiu

Bijeljina

Sabac

Sav

Pancevo

Belgrade

Jiu

Brcko

Drobeta
Turnu Severin

Valjevo

BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA
Sarajevo

Krusevac

Novi Pazar

Dubrovnik

Mitrovica

Berane

Niksic
Herceg-Novi

Pec

Podgorica

25

50

75

100 km

Bojana

Map produced by ZO Environment Network, March 2012

Kukes

ALBANIA
Lezhe

Sofia

K o s o v o *

Tetovo
Gostivar

Pernik

Vranje

Kjustendil
Kumanovo

Skopje

Blagoevgrad
Kocani

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV


REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

Veles

a
Strum

Shkoder

BULGARIA

Leskovac

Pristina

Prizren

Lake Skadar
Bar

r
Isku

Trebinje

Ibar

Bijelo Polje

MONTENEGRO

Vratsa

rav
Mo

Pljevla
Ta
ra

Montana
Nis

na
J uz

Lim

Mostar

Vidin

be
Danu

Kraljevo

Gorazde

Bor

Kragujevac

Cacak

Uzice

Craiova

Timok

Zvornik

Morava

Smederevo

Tuzla

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

Burrel

63

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

KOSOVO*
Exposure

No information availble

Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity

10

The effects of climate change exacerbate


Kosovos* existing environmental problems,
particularly water scarcity and pollution, land
degradation, deforestation and air pollution. Rising
temperatures and disruptions in the precipitation
regime are likely to intensify the stress on
water resources and damage ecosystems and
biodiversity. Agriculture, which comprises about 13
per cent of Kosovo* GDP while employing about
24 per cent of the work force, may suffer water
shortages, heat waves and droughts. The services
sector 65 per cent of GDP is less vulnerable
to climate change than more resource-dependent
sectors such as agriculture and energy. Lignite is
a primary resource in Kosovo*, and its use for the
production of electricity contributes significantly
to GHG emissions, a condition that may continue
as long as economic concerns have priority over
environmental concerns, or until alternatives are
developed.

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and


is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo
Declaration of Independence.

64

15

20

25

Kosovo* lacks the institutional and financial


capacity to respond effectively to climate change.
In the transition from a socialist economy to a
market-based economy, Kosovo* has received
substantial international donor support, but the
economy remains weak and unable to sustain
itself. Under the guidance of the United Nations
Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo*, and
with the assistance of international donors,
Kosovo* is working to establish governmental
institutions and a legal system compatible with
European Union law.
Kosovo* joined the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in 2009. An unemployment
rate of about 45 per cent encourages outmigration
and black market activity, and remittances are an
important part of GDP, but the small economy with
a relatively small trade sector avoided the worst
effects of the global financial crisis. In fact, the
Kosovo* economy grew by 4 per cent in 2009, and
is expected to continue growing.

Ra
sin
a
Prijepolje

Lim

Uv

ac

Raska

Sjenica

Prokuplje

ca
Topli
r
Iba

Dren

Novi Pazar

Kursumlija

A
Leskovac

Lab

Ibar

M O N T E N E G R O

Mitrovica
Mitrovice

Berane

Lausa

Durakovac

im
Pec
Peje

Plav

Klina
Kline

Podujevo
Podujeve

Obilic
Kastrioti

Pristina
Prishtine
Kosovska Kamenica
Kamenica

Kosovo Polje
Fushe Kosova

K o s o v o *

Vranje

Lipljan
Lipjan

Gjilan
Gnjilane

v
or a
aM
n
Juz

m
Ce

Dakovica
Gyakove

Orahovac
Rahoveci

r
li D
Be

Bajram Curri

im

Urosevac
Ferizaj

Drin

Kacanik

Prizren

Presovo

Vitina
Viti

r
Klisu
Kac.

Velika Krusa

e Skadar

Psaca

Kumanovo

Shkoder

Kukes

Lezhe

Saraj
Restelica
Restelice

cin

ja

Ilinden

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV


REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

Sveti Nikole

Bre

Gostivar
0

25

50

75 km

Stip

Veles

ka

Map produced by ZO Environment Network, May 2012.

s
Tre

Mat

Skopje

Tetovo
Vard
ar

A L B A N I A

Vlasotince

Vucitrn
Vushtrri

Klin
a

Andrijevica

ca
tni
Si

Rozaje

Kolasin

nica
abla

Mojkovac

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and isPeshkopi


in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

Burrel
Kruje

65
Bulqize

Debar

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

Annual precipitation
Croatia

Serbia

per cent of norm, 1961-1990

per cent of norm, 1961-1990


120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

1950

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60
1970

1980

1980

1990

2000

1990

2000

per cent of norm, 1961-1990

per cent of norm, 1961-1990

1960

1970

Albania

Montenegro

1950

1960

1990

2000

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia


per cent of norm, 1961-1990

1950

1960

1970

1980

Bosnia and Herzegovina


No data

Kosovo*

120

No data

100

80
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status,
and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo
Declaration of Independence.

60
1950

66

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: ClimateWizard, 2009.

Annual temperature
Croatia

Serbia

C
12

12

11

11

10

10

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

1950

12

12

11

11

10

10

1970

1980

1990

2000

1980

1990

2000

1960

1970

Albania

Montenegro

1950

1960

1980

1990

2000

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia


C

1950

1960

1970

Bosnia and Herzegovina


No data

Kosovo*

12

No data

11
10
9

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status,


and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo
Declaration of Independence.
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: ClimateWizard, 2009.

67

ADAPTATION IN THE
REGION

ADAPTATION IN
THE REGION

69

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

COUNTRY PLANS
Four of the six countries in this report included
adaptation plans in their national communications
to the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change. These plans are outlines
and generic statements of intent to adopt more
detailed strategies related to specific challenges,
and they are indicative of the direction a country is
likely to follow.
In the short term, Albania intends to focus on
improving its monitoring and warning systems for
coastal areas, agriculture and forestry. Longerterm plans contemplate participation in the
Drought Management Centre for Southeastern
Europe; the construction of a range of coastal
protection structures; and the development of land
management strategies such as levelling and
terracing together with water control measures
for agriculture.
Adaptation plans in Bosnia and Herzegovina
centre on coping with drought. Measures under
consideration include modifications in crop
rotation, the application of new technologies
to improve soil structure, the installation of
windbreaks and the establishment of a drought
early warning system. The plans also envision an
information and education campaign related the
public health and climate change.

70

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia plans


for adaptation contemplate extensive measures
covering several areas water resources,
agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, public health and
tourism. The water resources strategies include
both structural and management initiatives. The
agriculture measures include improvements in
irrigation practices and the expansion of irrigated
areas in combination with other changes in
agricultural practices.
The Montenegro adaptation plans also consider
agriculture, biodiversity and public health, but
have a special focus on coastal zone protection.
The adaptation measures include improvements
in monitoring and infrastructure, and call for the
eventual relocation of 10 per cent to 20 per cent of
the urbanized coastal population.

South-East European Climate Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation


Summary of proposed activities by sector
Sector

Proposed activities

Public
Health

Perform regular health monitoring


Establish emergency alert systems and data sharing
Conduct impact and adaptation assessments

Water
Resources

Build or modernize irrigation systems in drought-prone areas


Build or rehabilitate flood protection and drainage systems
Expand and modernize the network of meteorological and hydrological stations
Improve national flood and drought insurance schemes

Agriculture
and Forestry

Conduct research on the impacts of climate change on planting dates and cultivars,
and on yields, pests and diseases
Conduct research on the effects of extreme events on agriculture and forestry
Develop databases on droughts and forest fires

Land Use,
Buildings ans
Transportation

Improve design standards for buildings


Incorporate climate change impacts information into the construction,
operations and maintenance of infrastructure projects

Tourism

Develop efficiency standards for new tourist accommodations

Coastal
Zones

Evaluate the impact of sea level rise on groundwater and water availability
Improve early warning and response systems

Biodiversity and
Ecosystems

Conduct research on the impacts of climate change on species survival,


habitat composition and structure, invasive species, and seasonal phenomena
Assess climate change impacts on wetland and mountain ecosystems

Energy

Conduct research on the impacts of climate change on renewable energy sources


Conduct integrated research on the impacts of climate change on water resources
(precipitation and runoff) and energy production and consumption

General

Organize information and awareness campaigns and training programmes


Create and develop maps
Establish early warning systems
Raise awareness
Incorporate climate change adaptation into national and urban plans

Note: Information presented in this table is excerpted from table 2 in the South-East European Climate Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation.

71

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

WATER RESOURCES
IN THE BALKANS
Although all of the West Balkan countries have
fresh water resources sufficient to meet the needs
of sustainable development, climate change
is expected to disrupt water regimes. As the
requirements for drinking water grow, and the
demands for hydropower production increase, the
water resources of the region may come under
pressure from users with conflicting interests. New
international boundaries add yet another wrinkle.
Twenty years ago the Balkans had six
international river basins. Now, as a result of the
new international borders, they have thirteen, as
well as four transboundary lake basins. In terms
of exposure and sensitivity, water resources in
the Balkans are particularly vulnerable to climate
change, and what happens in the water sector will
influence what happens in agriculture and energy,
two other highly vulnerable sectors.
The implications for the development of adaptation
strategies are enormous. The water resources
problem is more regional than national in scale,
and effective adaptation in the region cannot
occur on a strict country-by-country basis. This
means that the Balkan countries must work
together on regional adaptive strategies, and that
their capacity to cooperate on mutual problems is
a major element in their overall adaptive capacity.

72

Szombathely

290

to

863

nub

v
Dra
753 985 5581150
Sava

232

113

1570

157

ora

Nere
tv a

MONTENEGRO

Podgorica

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

Tirana

22

ALBANIA
96
204

S em

an

V jo

Lake
Ohrid
146

se

52

Discharge scheme of the West Balkans


10

50

100

500 1000

Khaskovo
Krdzhali

Prespa
Lakes

Slive

Gabrovo
Tundzh

77

MACEDONIA

Veliko Trnovo

Stara-Zagora
Dimitrovgrad

ma
Stru

57

Crna

I T A L Y

350

Skopje

66

318 116

Sofia

Drin

ar

B U L G A R I A

Kosovo*
320

Raz

ok

104

rd
Va

Lake Skadar
682

93
va
ora
S. M

92

va

Giurgiu
Ruse

Danub
e
Tim

57

31

336

BUCURET

5683

Great
Morava

111

154

W.
M

Zeta

342

S E R B I A

Ib a

Braov

Ploieti
5684

235

1722

in a
Dr

tina
Ce

180
231

R O M A N I A

5600 5678

395

HERZEGOVINA

is
Tam

Buz

Belgrade

BOSNIA AND

Sarajevo

41

792
1179

Bos
na

a
Un

Vrb
as

197

Tisza

802

R O A T I A

One

Sfntu
Gheorghe

2607

314

274 C

K u pa

Da

Zagreb

Rom

Bac

H U N G A R Y

525

168

Piatra
Neam

Bistria

SLOVENIA
Ljubljana

Bala

182

Zlau

Siret

A U S T R I A

Szkesfehrvr
(2350 Budapest)
Veszprm

Evro

Graz

A G E A N

S E A

Annual mean discharge in m/s


Map produced by ZO Environment Network, February 2012.
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
Sources: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe: Second Assessment of Transboundary Rivers, Lakes and Groundwaters, 2011 ( www.unece.org/env/water); Sava River Basin Analysis Report,
International Sava River Basin Commission, 2009 ( www.savacommission.org); Jaroslav Cerni Institute ( www.jcerni.org); Wikipedia article Seman on 21 December ( http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seman);
Wikipedia article Vjosa on 21 December ( http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vjosa); Wikipedia article Tisza on 21 December ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tisza).

73

Ya

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

REGIONAL INITIATIVES
All six of the West Balkan countries covered in
this report are founding members of the Drought
Management Centre for Southeastern Europe,
the mission of which is to coordinate and facilitate
the development, assessment and application
of drought risk management tools and policies in
South-Eastern Europe with the goals of improving
drought preparedness and reducing drought
impacts. These goals fit comfortably in adaptation
plans, and by virtue of their participation in the
Drought Management Centre the countries stand
to advance their knowledge and capacity.
In its national communication to the UNFCCC,
Bosnia and Herzegovina makes a strong case for
a regional approach to climate change adaptation,
and suggests that the provision of water, energy,
transport and communications is enhanced by
regional cooperation. In this spirit, five of the
West Balkan countries all but Croatia reached
agreement on a South-East European Climate
Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation
creating a common platform for subregional
cooperation on climate change.

organizations; and improving the availability and


applicability of climate modelling in the region. The
plan also identifies the improvements in knowledge
and capacity necessary to reduce the risks
associated with climate change and to incorporate
socio-economic considerations into the analysis.
Most of the proposed actions in the plan are
preliminary steps information and awareness
campaigns, training, research, assessment, map
ping and analysis. The focus on such basic mea
sures reveals how far the West Balkan countries
have to go in order to develop concrete adaptation
measures. A close reading of the list raises a number
of questions: Who does what? How? In what time
frame? At what level of analysis local, subnational,
national or regional? And how does the preliminary
work, once completed, get used to develop specific
adaptation programmes and projects?

The plan does not go to the level of detail of


specific programmes or adaptation projects, but
rather provides a comprehensive framework that
the countries can follow to develop their own. It
begins with the fundamentals strengthening
the systems for climate observations, monitoring
and forecasting; improving the quality of data
and database management; enhancing the
capacity to work with the regional and international

The West Balkans are still developing their


institutions, but progress is evident. All six of the
West Balkan countries have participated in projects
funded by the United Nations Development
Programme Global Environment Facility, and as
result have enhanced their capacity to manage
climate change adaptation. Through the process
of complying with UNFCCC assessment and
reporting requirements, the countries have already
demonstrated an increased awareness and know
ledge of climate change. In addition, all of the West
Balkans countries and Kosovo* participate in the
Dinaric Arc and Balkans Environment Outlook, a
platform for integrated environmental assessments.

74

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and


is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo
Declaration of Independence.

The South-East European Climate Change


Frame
work Action Plan for Adaptation is a
regional forum with a promising beginning, but
has no institutional or political authority, and other
models for regional cooperation may be able to
incorporate the plan into a stronger scheme with
international partners and the opportunity for
significant funding.
The EU Stabilisation and Association process
could become the organizing focus for a regional
approach to adaptation. As part of this process,
the EU finances the Regional Environmental Network for Accession (RENA). All of the West Balkan
countries are already engaged in the process, and
the RENA structure offers a logical place for the
coordination of regional adaptation strategies, but
whether the EU would consider taking responsibility for the additional mission is an open question.
The scheme makes more sense for the period of
transition to EU membership than it does in the
long run.

transboundary mountain regions. They relate more


to the Convention on Biological Diversity than to
the UNFCCC, but a Dinaric Arc Convention could
nevertheless provide a platform for regional climate
change adaptation strategies, and may be able to
bring all the existing agreements together under
one roof.
Any new scheme designed to coordinate adaptation
in the West Balkans would do well to consider the
array of organizations, programmes, initiatives and
agreements currently contributing to adaptation
projects and strategies in the region. The idea of
having one comprehensive regional adaptation
mechanism may be attractive, but in light of the
myriad efforts already in place, the best overall
approach may emerge from a recognition of what
each component can contribute to the cause.

The Alpine and Carpathian Conventions


each of which provides a platform for cooperation
for environmental protection and sustainable
development offer a template for the Balkans,
and the United Nations Environment Programme
is an independent player who may be able
to assist in the development of a Dinaric Arc
Convention. The existing conventions and the
prospective Balkan convention arose from the
recognition of transboundary issues related to
ecosystem protection, and all three are defined by
75

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED


Croatia, with its higher adaptive capacity and
lower exposure and sensitivity, is the least
vulnerable country in the region, while Albanias
high exposure and sensitivity rank it as the most
vulnerable. Each of the countries faces its own
challenges with political and economic stability,
demographic changes and institution-building,
among others. The generally low adaptive capacity
rankings reflect the difficulty of these challenges
and the relatively short time the countries have
had to make progress. The individual country
adaptation plans and the South-East European
Climate Change Framework Action Plan are
promising beginnings, and participation in the
Global Environment Facility, the Dinaric Arc
and Balkans Environment Outlook and the EU
Stabilisation and Association process are further
evidence of progress.

76

All of this work lays the foundation for the even


more challenging regional work that lies ahead.
A regional strategy for the management of water
resources appears to be the key to successful
climate change adaptation in the Balkans.
The water resources in the region have a high
exposure and sensitivity to climate change, and
the fates of the agricultural and energy sectors
are closely tied to the water sector. In addition,
the international implications of an environmental
catastrophe resulting from a flood that wipes out
an abandoned mine tailings facility are too serious
to ignore. With so many transboundary river and
lake basins, the countries of the region have the
best chance of managing their water resources in
cooperative fashion, whether through an existing
agreement or a new one or a series of bilateral
efforts.

Zalaegerszeg
n
to
Bala

Klagenfurt

Banja Luka

Osijek

a
Un

Ta
mi

Belgrade

tina
Ce

Sarajevo

Morava

Kragujevac

MONTENEGRO

Dubrovnik

Podgorica

Napoli

Salerno

Potenza

Taranto

Kosovo*

Tirana

Pernik

Gostivar

MACEDONIA

Lecce

Sem

Vlor

an

se

Ioannina

Kerkyra
Crotone

Kavala

Kastoria
Vjo

E
Larisa

A G E A N

Volos
Arta

Catanzaro

Lamia

S E A

Major watersheds in the West Balkans


Map produced by ZO Environment Network, February 2012.
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
Sources: Zinke Environment Consulting ( www.zinke.at) and Fluvius Floodplain Ecology and River Basin Management ( http://fluvius.com).

Slive

Gabrovo
Tundzh

Stara-Zagora
Dimitrovgrad
Krdzhali

Thessaloniki

Korche

G
Cosenza

Serres

Bitola

Veliko Trnovo

Khaskovo

Blagoevgrad

Veles

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

ALBANIA

Brindisi

Plovdiv

Kyustendil

Skopje

Durrs

Bari

I T A L Y

Sofia

uma
Str

Benevento

B U L G A R I A

Pristina

Drin
Shkoder

Bar

Pleven

Vratsa

ar

Manfredonia

Giurgiu
Ruse

Raz

Leskovac

rd
Va

S
Foggia

Bijelo Polje
Zeta

Pescara

Nere
tv a

BUCURET

Danube

Vidin

Nis

Novi Pazar

Ploieti
Piteshti

Craiova

Bor

Braov

Buz

Olt

S E R B I A

ina
Dr

Bos
na

Brcko
Tuzla

Sibiu

DrobetaTurnu Severin

One

Sfntu
Gheorghe

Ramnicu
Valcea

Mostar

res
Mu

l
hu

R O M A N I A

Panchevo

HERZEGOVINA
Split

Deva

Timishoara

Novi Sad

Slavonski Brod

BOSNIA AND

Zadar

Arad

Timok

Vrb
as

Sav

be
Danu

Pula

Subotica

C R O A T I A
Karlovac K u p a

Szeged

Rom

Bac

Cluj-Napoca

Tisza

av
Dr

Zagreb

Ljubljana
Rijeka

Kecskemet

Pecs

Piatra
Neam

Bistria

H U N G A R Y

SLOVENIA
Trieste

Zlau

Siret

A U S T R I A

Szkesfehrvr
Veszprm

Evro

Szombathely

Graz

77

Ya

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

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79