PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk.

Strong Brand Loyalty

Indonesia Familiar Product

November, 13 2012

PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk is an established

Target Price

Rp 8,400

Price (09/11)

Rp 7,200

Recommendation
Upside Potential

market-leading producer of packaged food products with a

diverse

range

of

products

providing

everyday

food

Buy

solutions for consumer of all ages. Proven experience in

16.7%

selling instant noodles, has become a challenge for the

company in developing other divisions. The Indonesian
economy continues to grow, this is an opportunity of high

Stock Fokus

Sector

Food & Beverage

Ticker (Bloomberg)

ICBP.IJ

Share Issued (m)

5,830

Market Cap (IDR m)

42.274

market share, we are confident ICBP can see opportunities

and maximize the development of products and sales.

Gross Profit Up Slightly, Strong Cash Flow Position

In the 3Q12 company posted a gross profit margin of 26.6%

Major Shareholders:
PT Indofood (INDF)
Publik

higher than 3Q11 26.02%. While QoQ gross profit margin

(80.5%)
(19.4%)

grew 2.7%, to 27.98% due to lower prices of basic

commodities

for

noodles

division.

We

predict

the

company's sales growth is going to reach 12.6% in 2012

and 10% going forward. ICBP has a strong position of
operating cash flow, small DER & expansion capability
using internal cash.
Historical Chart

Valuation, Recommendation : Buy

We use a DCF valuation, base assumption to 2013 & find
value of PE estimated at 19.2 with EPS of 436 16.7 %
discount from the price now. On the basis we arrive at a TP
of Rp 8,400. We are optimist our numbers are achievable as
ICBP 9M12 earnings have already reached 74.4%. Thus the
high growth in the snack food will still remain in the 4th
Hi Lo 52 weeks
(Rp)
Rp) 4.875 7.750
Avg Vol Transaksi (3M)
14.039.300

quarter, and rapid volume in noodles could achieve 7%

growth in 2012.
EXHIBIT 1. Financial Statements Summary
Rp Bn
Sales
EBT
Net Income
EPS

2010
17,960
2,519
1,704
344

2011
19,367
2,745
1,975
339
-1.5%

12.7%

14.1%

10.0%

13.7%
19.6%
14.8
2.91

13.6%
19.3%
14.7
2.83

13.8%
19.4%
19.0
3.50

14.3%
19.6%
16.63
3.09

14.1%
19.2%
15.1
2.76

growth

Monchita Wintion Pangemanan

monchita@reliance-securities.com

ROA (%)
ROE (%)
P/E (x)
PBV (x)

2012E
21,820
3,114
2,227
382

2013F
23,953
3,554
2,541
436

2014F
26,426
3,909
2,796
479

Source : Company, Reliance Research

EQUITY RESEARCH

PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk.

Industry Overview

Indonesia GDP figure was at 6.17% in the third quartal of 2012. Reliances estimates of GDP
until the end of 2012,

will be in the range of 6.3 6.5. Meanwhile, we see a growth in

purchasing power increases. Realization of investment in Q3 2012 for the food processing
industry reached 11.8% of total domestic investment (DCI)

With a population of over 250 million people & 45 million middle class , Indonesia is a country
that has a huge potential market. The survey of consumer behavior found that food &

Stock Fokus

beverage products has become the most daily consumer goods purchased by consumers,
where 25.4% is used for instant noodles shopping.

Furthermore, Indonesia's dairy industry continues to experience growth. Indonesia is the

lowest country that consumes milk in Asean. This is an excellent opportunity for ICBP. The
Company may undertake strategies such as introducing people to milk even more, promoting
the consumption of milk, & distributing the dairy products for people to access easily. We
believe the company can increase market penetration of milk after what has been achieved
from selling instant noodles. We are optimistic that growth in dairy consumption in the
coming years will increase significantly supported by the development of production capacity.
EXHIBIT 2. Macro Economic Indicators

Macro Assumption
GDP growth (% yoy)
Inflation rate (% yoy)
BI rate (% yoy)
Exchange Rate (Rp/USD, average)

2010
6.1
6.96
6.5
9,741

2011
6.5
3.79
6
8,779

2012E
6.3
5.3
5.75
9,550

2013F
6.5
5.1
5.75
9,500

Source : BPS, Reliance Research

EXHIBIT 3. Dairy Consumption

Filipina

13.7

Vietnam

14.3

Thailand

EXHIBIT 4. Indonesia Consumer Behavior

7.5% 6.3%
25.4%

33.7

81%
Singapura

44.5

India

47.1

Malaysia

50.9

Indonesia

Rice

12.85

20

40

Cooking Oil

Sugar

60

Source : Kompas

EQUITY RESEARCH

Instant Noodles

Source : Worldpanel Indonesia

PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk.

Company Overview
ICBP was established as a separate entity in September 2009 and listed on the Indonesia
Stock Exchange (IDX) on October 7, 2010. It was established by means of internal
restructuring of the Consumer Branded Product (CBP) Group of PT Indofood Sukses
Makmur Tbk (Indofood), the parent company, listed on the IDX since 1994.

ICBP has been producing noodles with a brand named Sarimi in 1982. Then it continued
issuing instant noodles with various well known brands in the community that is Indomie,
Supermie, and Pop Mie. The company has been a market leader of instant noodle

Stock Fokus

manufacturer. ICBP diversified its business by developing products and special nutritional
foods, then set up a joint venture with Seven-Up Nederland BV which is an affiliated company
PepsiCo Inc. that manufactures snack food. The Company launched the first brands such as
Chitato, Chiki, and Jetz, then Qtela.

In the subsequent years, ICBP expanded to seasoning food division (1991), and later diary
(2008) by acquiring Drayton Pte. Ltd. which has a 68.87% stake in PT Indolakto that produces
brands such as Bendera and Indomilk. In 2012, the company established a joint venture with
a well known Japanese consumer company, namely Asahi Group Holdings LTd. Diversified
business ensued with the joint venture, the company will enter into a non-alcoholic beverage
business clients division.
EXHIBIT 5. Ownership Structure

INDF.IJ

Consumer Branded
Products

Bogasari

Agribusiness

Distribution

80.5%

Public

19.4%

ICBP.IJ

Source : Company

EXHIBIT 6. Company Milestone

Instant noodles
began production
under the brand
Sarimi, and Indomie,
Supermi and Pop
Mie respectively in
1984, 1986 and
1988

1982

Confectionery business division

began operating two brands,
"Trenz" For young people and
adults, and "Wonderland" for
the family segment. In 2011,
the brand Bim Bim was
launched to reach out to the
kids market.

Go to the snacks food

business division with
51:49 joint venture with
Seven-Up Nederland BV,
affiliation with PepsiCo
Inc. with brand Chitato,
Chiki and Jetz

1985
Go to the division of
nutrition and special
foods, Promina
launched as the first
brand, followed by
the brand "SUN" in
1989

EQUITY RESEARCH

1990

1991
Log into division flavoring
foods with soy products
named Piring Lombok and
Niki Echo. In 1992, the
brand launched Indofood
soy sauce and seasoning
for instant products.

2005

2008
The Company began dairy
division by acquiring
Drayton Pte Ltd. Which has
65.87% of PT Indolakto,
which is the second largest
player in the Indonesian
dairy industry

Stock Fokus

PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk.

EXHIBIT 6. SWOT Analysis

Strength
Market leader for instant noodles
product. Even, Indomie has
become a very common term to
call instant noodles in Indonesia.
Taste has adhered in society.
Strong distribution reach areas in
Indonesia. Supported by the
spread of production facilities.

Opportunity
Increased purchasing power,
as economic conditions
improved
Lifestyle of modern society,
which led to increased
demand for food and
beverages that can be quickly
cooked

Product Diversification
Weakness
Most of the raw materials are
imported, thus the fluctuation of
exchange rate are affect gross
profit margin result

Threat
Fluctuating commodity prices
High levels of competition
Negative sentiment toward
the content of the product
Source : Reliance Research

EQUITY RESEARCH

PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk.

Noodles Division
This division is the largest contributor, 70% of total consolidated sales. ICBP is a market
leader in the sale of instant noodles. Having a strong brand positioning in which the Indomie
brand has been grounded in the minds of the public. In recent years the company sells the
instant noodles product in a fierce competition. Volume in 2011 decreased 3.5% (YoY) but net
sales grew 7% (YoY). We are optimistic that this division will remain the No. 1 manufacturer of
instant noodles in Indonesia, with experience more than 20 years the company will perform
for maximum effort to increase sales volume. We predict a 7% (YoY) increase in volumes this
year, sales of this division managed to grow 11% and 22% (YoY) as compared to the same

Stock Fokus

period last year noodles sales growth of 8% and 0.4%. Thus in third quarter, volume grew
12.1% from 8.31 billion in 2011 to 9.32 billion in 2012.
Exhibit 7. Noodles Market Share

Exhibit 8. Noodles Volume & Average Selling Price

13.50

1,600.0

13.00
Others

12.00
Sarimi

0.9%

Gaga mie

11.50

12.54
12.18

12.03

11.82
10.82

10.50

3.0%

400.0

10.00
Mie Sedap

23.0%

0.0%

200.0

9.50

Indomie

69.6%
10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%

Source: Mars Indonesia

1,000.0
600.0

11.05

11.03

1,200.0
800.0

11.45

11.00

1.2%

Supermie

1,400.0
12.92

12.50

2.3%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

Volume

ASP
Source : Company, Reliance Research

Dairy Division
Dairy produced by IDLK, a subsidiary of the company with a 68.6% ownership. This division
produces sweetened condensed milk (SKM), ultra-high temperature milk (UHT), milk in sterile
bottles, pasteurized milk, milk powder, butter, yogurt and ice cream drinks. Dairy is the
second largest contributor of total consolidated sales of approximately 19.1% in 2011. The
company is currently building a plant to increase production capacity. We see that Indonesia
has a huge potential market for dairy division.
Exhibit 10. Indonesia Dairy, Milk, Nonfat Dry Consumption/ Year

Exhibit 9. Dairy Sales and Growth (YoY)

25%
20%

1,014
894

806

1,200

1,064
938

904

12% 12%

600

8%

9%

6%

3%

5%

1,000
800

19%

15%
10%

980

400
200

0%

11Q1

11Q2

11Q3

Dairy

11Q4

12Q1

12Q2 12Q3e

Growth YoY
Source : Company, Reliance Research

EQUITY RESEARCH

Source : Index Mundi

PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk.

Food Seasoning
Marketed by NICI (joint venture between Nestle SA with ICBP50%), the company produces soy sauce,
chili sauce, tomato sauce, seasonings and broth with their instant Indofood, Plate Lombok, Indofood
racik and Maggi, while the production to the sales process run by the FS division. The increased
production capacity in Central Java chili sauce completed this year and production facilities for dry
mixes that are expected to finish 2013. Thus, we are optimistic on the growth of sales for food
seasoning can grow over 20% this year and next year in line with the increasing demand due to the
growth of public welfare.

Snack Food

Stock Fokus

Some brands of snacks like-Qtela, Chitato, Lays, Jetz, Cheetos, Chiki, Trenz, and Wonderland are known
successfully in the community. Produced by IFL which is a joint venture ICBP (51%) with Seven-Up
Netherlands, BV (an affiliate of PepsiCo Inc.). In 2011 contributed 2.64%, on third quarter grew 24%
(YoY), and slightly decline 0.3% in QoQ growth due to Eid Season in last quarter was over. Snack food
booked highest growth year on year this year.

Nutrition and Special Food

This division produces special food for infants and children and milk for pregnant and lactating
mothers. It gives the smallest contribution to the total net sales. Slow growth in 2011 of 1.1%. QoQ
growth until the first half of 2012 grew but not as brighter as the same period in 2011. We forecast the
growth of this division will be around 4%, and the percentage of contribution from this division will
shrink along with the rapid growth of the division of instant noodles, food seasoning, and snack food.

Exhibit 11. Breakdown of Company Sales

Exhibit 12. Segment Income from Operations per Division

Dairy, 19%
Food
Seasoning, 5
%
Snack
Food, 6%
Special
Food, 3%

Noodles, 70%

11Q1

11Q2

Noodles

Source : Company, Reliance Research

11Q3

11Q4

12Q1

Dairy

Food seasoning

12Q2

12Q3

Snack Foods

12Q4e

Special Foods

Source : Company, Reliance Research

Exhibit 13. Companys Third Quartal Sales

Total Sales
Noodles
Dairy
Food Seasoning
Snack Food
Nutrition & Special Food

11Q3
5,027
3,583
894
274
308
102

12Q3
5,309
3,809
904
291
382
100

YoY
5.6%
6.3%
1.1%
6.2%
24.0%
-2.2%

9M11
14,450
10,129
2,713
800
875
379

9M12
16,228
11,423
2,906
917
1,123
364

YoY
12.3%
12.8%
7.1%
14.7%
28.3%
-4.0%
Source : Company

EQUITY RESEARCH

PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk.

Exhibit 15. Wheat Price

Source : Index Mundi

Source : Index Mundi

Exhibit 16. CPO Price

Exhibit 17. Skim Milk Powder Price

4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
Jun-12
Aug-12

Stock Fokus

Exhibit 14. Sugar Price

Source : Index Mundi

Source :AAE

Gross Profit Margin Hoovering Above 25%

Gross profit margin experienced a significant growth since 2007 (16%) and recently (12Q3) has
reached 27%, although in 2011 slightly decreased due to the increase in raw material prices.
We believe in the future the company can maintain the proportion of margin above 25% &
continue to rise due to lower prices of raw materials, & the company strategy in reducing the
cost of raw materials.
EXHIBIT 18. Gross Profit Margin
30.0%
24.0%

25.0%

27.7% 26.0%
26.7%
25.8% 25.8%

17.5%

20.0%

16.1%

15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2007

EQUITY RESEARCH

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012E 2013F 2014F

Source : Company, Reliance Research

PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk.

Increase in Sales and GA Expenses

In the third quarter, general administrative expense hikes 56.02% (YoY) due to an increase in
number of worker to fulfill the new production capacity. We believe this is only temporarily
and will be back to normal when the production capacity start to operate.

Healthy Balance Sheet

ICBP continue to have healthy balance sheet and strong cash flow position. The huge
internal cash position enable to accommodate capital expenditure, which is budgeted for

Stock Fokus

expanding noodle and dairy capacity. We estimate the dividend payout ratio will be at 50%,
while management has distribute 40% dividend payout ratio for 2010s net profit.

Valuation
We calculate the valuation using DCF method. We find fair value of Rp 8400 on a 2013 PE of
19.2x, far below the P/E industry of 32.16 and P/E sector of 32.12 (data: Reuters). We
believe there is still a chance for the stock price to increase after 34% gained (YTD). We are
optimist because ICBP has become a market leader in some of its products, the company's
instant noodles division has a pricing power to cover the cost of volatility spikes as occurred
in 2011. Meanwhile, corporate actions such as expansion of the company, over time, has
become a source of new revenue, the opportunity to pursue sales division of instant
noodles.

EQUITY RESEARCH

EXHIBIT 19. Financial Highlights

INCOME STATEMENT
Rp Bn

2009

2010

2011

Sales

16,333

17,960

19,367

21,820

23,953

26,426

COGS

12,420

12,977

14,336

16,200

17,776

19,378

Gross Profit
SGA Expenses
Other Operating income (Exp)

2013F

2014F

3,913

4,983

5,031

5,620

6,177

7,049

(1,598)

(2,113)

(2,347)

(2,391)

(2,816)

(3,069)

(177)

(105)

(33)

(32)

(32)

(32)

Operating Income

2,138

2,871

2,684

3,229

3,361

3,979

EBT

1,566

2,519

2,745

3,114

3,554

3,909

Tax

Stock Fokus

2012E

(430)

Minority Interest
Net Income

(770)

(878)

(966)

(667)
124

(679)
91

117

134

147

1,078

1,704

1,975

2,227

2,541

2,796

2009

2010

2011

2012E

2013F

2014F

696

3,408

4,421

5,462

6,261

7,527

1,476

2,026

2,378

2,372

2,737

3,012

BALANCE SHEET
Rp Bn
Cash
A/R
Inventory

1,311

1,422

1,630

1,774

1,972

2,158

Fixed Asset

2,180

2,305

2,590

3,207

3,653

4,252

Others

5,256

7,608

8,625

9,577

10,291

11,477

10,224

13,361

15,223

16,931

18,652

20,899

Short term debt

1,360

405

418

418

Long term debt

42

15

146

235

379

553

Total Asset

Others

3,579

3,950

4,192

4,612

5,002

1,625

9,362

10,710

12,086

13,661

15,344

10,224

13,361

15,223

16,931

18,652

20,899

2009

2010

2011

2012E

2013F

2014F

Net Profit

1,078

1,837

2,064

2,344

2,675

2,943

Depreciation

1,969

208

227

256

285

319

(266)

(209)

Total Equity
Total Liability and Equity
Cash Flow
Rp Bn

Working Capital

(94)

(214)

(396)

28

Others

(15)

158

172

42

87

97

1,988

2,067

2,671

2,781

3,149

Operation Cash Flow

Capex

2,939
(1,973)

Others

199
Investing Cash Flow

Change in Equity
Dividend
Others
Financing Cash Flow
Change in Cash

(1,774)
(1,685)

(332)
233
(99)
6,178

(144)

713

(5,211)

(972)
193

823
2,712

(512)
55
(457)
49
(676)
31
(597)
1,013

(873)

(730)

(918)

95

120

120

(779)

(610)

(798)

64
(1,032)
118
(850)
1,042

73
(1,172)
(273)
(1,373)
798

77
(1,338)
175
(1,085)
1,266

Source : Company, Reliance Research

EQUITY RESEARCH

EXHIBIT 20. Financial Highlights

Growth (YoY)

Stock Fokus

Sales

2010

2011

2012E

2013F

2014F

10%

8%

13%

10%

10%

Gross Income

27%

1%

12%

10%

14%

Operating Income

34%

-6%

20%

4%

18%

Net Income

58%

16%

13%

14%

10%

Gross margin
Operating margin
Net profit margin
RoA
RoE

28%

26%

26%

26%

27%

16%

14%

15%

14%

15%

Current Ratio
Quick Ratio

9%

10%

10%

11%

11%

14%

14%

14%

14%

14%

20%

19%

19%

20%

19%

2.6

2.9

3.1

3.7

3.9

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.9

3.2

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

Asset Turnover

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

Inventory Turnover

9.5

9.4

9.5

9.5

9.4

DER

Source : Company, Reliance Research

EQUITY RESEARCH

10

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Wilson Sofan

wilson.sofan@reliance-securities.com

Jasa Adhi Mulya

jasa@reliance-securities.com

Monchita W. P.

monchita@reliance-securities.com

Christine Natasya

christine.natasya@reliance-securities.com

Stock Fokus

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T + 62 31 298 1203
F + 62 31 298 1204

Universitas Brawijaya
Jl. Veteran
Malang 65145
T + 62 341 551611, 575777
F + 62 341 565420

STIESIA Surabaya
Jl. Menur Pumpungan 30
Surabaya
T + 62 31 5947505
F + 62 31 5932218

Universitas Muhammadiyah Gresik

Jl. Sumatra 101 GKB
Gresik 61121
T + 62 31 395 1414
F + 62 31 395 2585

STIE Malangkucecwara
Jl. Terusan Candi Kalasan
Malang 65142
T + 62 341 491813
F + 62 341 495619

Universitas Pembangunan Nasional "Veteran"

Yogyakarta
Jl. Babarsari 2, Tambak Bayan
Yogyakarta
T. (0274) 485268
F. (0274) 487147

Universitas Siliwangi Tasikmalaya

Jl. Siliwangi No. 24
Tasikmalaya 46151
T + 62 265 323685
F + 62 265 323534

President University
Resto Plaza 1F - Jababeka Education Park
Jl. Ki Hajar Dewantara Raya
Cikarang - Bekasi 17550
T + 62 21 89106030

Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Banyuwangi

Jl. Adi Sucipto 26
Banyuwangi, Jawa Timur
T. (0333) 419163
F. (0333) 419163

Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran

Jakarta
Jl. RS Fatmawati, Pondok Labu
Jakarta 12450
T + 62 21 7656971 ext. 197
F + 62 21 7656971 ext. 138

Universitas Tanjungpura Pontianak

Jl. Jendral Ahmad Yani
Pontianak 78124
T + 62 561 743465
F + 62 561 766840

Universitas Negeri Malang

Jl. Surabaya No. 6
Malang 65145
T + 62 341 585914
F + 62 341 552888

Universitas Jember
Jl. Jawa No. 17
Jember 68121
T + 62 331 330732
F + 62 331 326419

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