Chasing Mahindas ghost

As President Maithripala Sirisena grows more assertive in the presidency and

focuses predominantly on consolidating power within the SLFP, will he continue to
allow Mahinda Rajapaksa to dictate the political agenda?

President Maithripala Sirisena and his predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa signed as

witnesses at the wedding of the daughter of prominent gem merchant W. Vinil at
the Cinnamon Grand last Thursday

Thursday, 25 June 2015

After a disastrous meeting at the Parliamentary Complex in early May,
President Maithripala Sirisena and his predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa had
a chance encounter last week, under less official, slightly pleasanter
circumstances.
High-profile Kahawatte Gem Merchant W. Vinil invited both politicians to
sign as witnesses when his daughter was married at a lavish ceremony at
the Cinnamon Grand Hotel in Colombo last Thursday (18).
Both men arrived in their customary national suit, but the ex-President wore
a cream-coloured silk version and completed his outfit with emerald
studded cuff-links and his signature red shawl. President Sirisena, who
arrived a few minutes after his predecessor, wore his regular white tunic
and sarong with simple slippers, looking as ordinary and inconspicuous as
ever.
But not even the happy occasion and chance social meeting could break
the ice between the incumbent and his predecessor, as political tensions
continue to simmer six months after Sirisena ousted the Rajapaksa
administration in a major election upset.

The two leaders barely acknowledged each other. Video of the registration
ceremony showed them sitting across each other and avoiding eye contact.
President Rajapaksa was twirling his golden talisman anxiously and
repeatedly in his hand. More popularly known as the ex-Presidents vashee
bole, the ritual object Mahinda Rajapaksa is always pictured grasping is a
vajra, weapon of the God Indra in Hindu mythology, said to symbolise
indestructibility and irresistible force.
Soon after the signing ceremony, both politicians posed for a quick picture
with the couple and their families at the hotel, before President Sirisena
rushed off since he had a second wedding to sign at 20 minutes later.
President Rajapaksa mingled for about 40 minutes, posed for selfies with
several eager supporters before leaving the function.
Guests at the ceremony would later remark at the contrast between these
two men and erstwhile political colleagues. President Rajapaksa, who built a
powerful old-fashioned personality cult during his nine- year presidency,
looked adorned and showy, with his multiple rings to ward off evil, his
dressy tunic and slicked back hair.
He was like a peacock, while President Sirisena looked the way he always
looks, like a simple man of simple tastes completely ordinary, said one
guest at the function, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Since his election on 8 January, President Sirisena has worked hard to
cultivate this image of the simple man. Quiet and unobtrusive in how he
has wielded the perks of his office and careful about the inconvenience
caused by the large security contingent that is his entitlement, President
Sirisena rarely makes an entrance. He has been caught on camera strolling
into a shop to pick out his own shoes or seated on a chair.

Another popular picture shows the President seated on a cane arm chair in
a corner and tucking into a plate of rice. For nearly 10 years, Mahinda
Rajapaksa strutted the political stage peacock style. Images of his smiling,
mustachioed visage or life-sized cut-outs peppered the streets right across
the island. The arrogance of his security detail and those of his extended

family became frequent irritants on the roads and at public events.

Even six months after his defeat, the Rajapaksa spectre looms larger than
life and old habits die hard. Rajapaksa aides and security officers frequently
refer to him as the President in conversation with media personnel and
other members of the public, creating a degree of confusion.
Still popular
The result is that even after several months in the presidency, Maithripala
Sirisenas unobtrusive style is still a breath of fresh air. Signs of frustration
against the minority UNP-led Government have begun to emerge, but
President Sirisena remains as popular as ever.
The Central Bank bond issue a major scandal that has seriously eroded
public faith in the UNP has barely touched the presidency. The slow pace
of corruption investigations against top members of the former regime,
looming economic crises and everyday frustrations against incumbency are
almost entirely directed at the UNP and Prime Minister Ranil
Wickremesinghe.
Meanwhile, President Sirisena continues to be credited with every major
success of the 100-day Government, including the passage of the 19th
Amendment, reconciliation efforts and changes in the climate for free
expression and assembly.
It is a curious phenomenon that public perception strongly absolves the
President from every Government failure. The perception is reinforced by
the SLFP, now performing the dual roles of Opposition and Government
stakeholders, which heaps condemnation upon the UNP Government but
leaves President Sirisena, its party leader, largely untouched.
Six months after his election, therefore, President Sirisena remains
untainted, still the paragon of virtue, his legacy intact

and
protected thus far.
This peculiar turn of events is causing deep concern within the UNP,
especially after President Sirisena said he would strive to establish a
Government led by the SLFP during a rally in Nuwara Eliya last weekend.
UNP concerns

With the Presidents popularity at its zenith and the memory of his triumph
against the Rajapaksa regime in January still fresh, Prime Minister Ranil
Wickremesinghe and other senior UNP members are concerned that he will
actively campaign on SLFP stages during the general election campaign.
This will place floating voters who strongly support President Sirisena with
an impossible choice. While the SLFP has lost credibility and continues to be
identified with the corruption and nepotism of the previous regime, the
presence of President Sirisena on the partys campaign trail could remove
some of that stigma.
The steps taken by his administration to advance reconciliation efforts and
build bridges with the Tamil and Muslim communities could also restore a
share of the minority vote base to the SLFP, which has seen a major loss of
non-Sinhala Buddhist support, particularly due to the ultra-nationalist
policies of the Rajapaksa administration.
From the Presidents perspective, he can only ensure his faction of the SLFP
comes in first or at least a close second to the Wickremesinghe-led UNP, if
he campaigns strongly in their corner. Yet to do so would be to renege on a
major promise to the UNP and the common opposition that strongly backed
his candidacy in the January presidential poll. It was an agreement reached
between the candidate and the main political party backing his candidature
that during the parliamentary election, President Sirisena would play the
role of umpire. He would not enter the campaign fray, allowing the two
major parties to battle it out for supremacy in the next Parliament.
Instead, as a one-term President, he would focus on overseeing the
independent commissions tasked with the de-politicisation of the electoral
process and ensure they remained strong and unbiased. Yet as the trust
deficit grows between the UNP and the SLFP President they helped to sweep
into office, it appears increasingly likely that President Sirisena will not only
actively participate in his partys election campaign, but he may also
declare elections only when it is political more advantageous for the SLFP.
Trust deficit
Suspicions that factions of the UNP are actively encouraging the Mahinda
faction of the SLFP to contest the election as a separate front are helping
the President to justify his decision to throw in his lot with the SLFP.
Close aides of President Sirisena acknowledge that he remains worried,
disturbed and deeply sceptical of the UNP. For months after the election,
President Sirisena repeated the mantra that it was the UNP voter that had
thrust him into the presidents office. Yet last week when a senior UNP
delegation comprising Minister Karu Jayasuriya, Kabir Hashim, Lakshman
Kiriella, Ravi Karunanayake and former party chairman Malik
Samarawickrema met President Sirisena at the Presidential Secretariat and
reiterated that the UNP had played a major role in wining him the
presidency, the President shot back that he had also played his part in the

election. If the UNP was listening, the remarks should have set off alarm
bells and indicated that all was not well in the relationship between the
President and his minority Government.
In meetings with associates this week, President Sirisena issued sarcastic
remarks about the UNP, seemingly irked by repeated statements by
members of that party that Maithripala Sirisena sat in the office of the
presidency because of the UNP.
While partially true, because the UNP bloc vote propelled President Sirisena
to office in January, it also remains a fact that the Grand Old Party could not
command a single candidate from within its ranks capable of challenging
and defeating President Rajapaksa. Prime Minister Wickremesinghe is being
strongly advised by aides and advisors to warn junior UNP members against
directly attacking the President, since the remarks were contributing to the
overall breakdown of trust between the UNP and the

presidency.
As he continues to try to consolidate support within the SLFP, President
Sirisena also appears to be discarding other factions that strongly
supported his election campaign in January, sources close to the
Government claim.

Last weekend, President Sirisena failed to attend a Pivituru Hetak meeting

at the Sugathadasa Stadium, citing bad weather in Nuwara Eliya that was
preventing him from flying to Colombo. Prime Minister Wickremesinghe,
who was in Kalpitiya at meetings that day, attended the meeting for 30
minutes. Chatura Senanayake, son of Minister Rajitha Senaratne, is a key
member of the Pivithuru Hetak movement founded by JHU monk Athuraliye
Rathana Thero. Despite his close association with Minister Senaratne,
President Sirisena may have had a falling out with his son, highly placed
sources told Daily FT.
These sources claim that it also appears that former President Chandrika
Kumaratunga has also taken a backseat in governance matters in the
recent past. When he was new to the office, President Sirisena placed great
value on counsel provided by the former President on various matters.
JHU influences
Similarly in the hasty gazetting of the 20th Amendment to the Constitution,
proposing reforms to the electoral system, President Sirisena acted against
the counsel of his constitutional advisors, drafting the problem-ridden
legislation with the support of the Legal Draftsman and a prominent JHU
activist.
The JHU is strongly backing the electoral reforms in their current form, even
though they will strongly disadvantage the party except in key ultra-Sinhala
Buddhist constituencies. Minister Champika Ranawaka and the JHU continue
to wield considerable influence over the Sirisena presidency, with
Ranawaka even named as the Presidents nominee on the Constitutional
Council.
Concerns are being expressed by sections of the Muslim and Tamil
communities about the JHU leading the charge on electoral reform that
would greatly disadvantage political representation for ethnic and religious
minority groups in the country.
Six months after assuming office, President Sirisena is no more the
tentative politician he was in January, aides say. He is firmer now in his
decisions and more confident in the power he wields. Put down throughout
his election campaign for the presidency and after assuming office as being
a puppet manipulated by former President Kumaratunga and Prime Minister
Ranil Wickremesinghe, President Sirisena is disproving his critics by taking
complete control.
The dissolution of Parliament, long anticipated to take place overnight on
Wednesday, could be delayed further, as President Sirisena appears to be
making the choice to consolidate his power within the SLFP before declaring
the polls.
As he flexes his presidential muscle and strikes out independently,
President Sirisena also appears to be building links with certain corporate
entities strongly alleged to be associated with the former regimes

corruption and manipulation of the financial system.

After the Prime Minister openly criticised high net worth investor Dilith
Jayaweera for his role in the stock market scandals when the Rajapaksa
regime was in power, President Sirisena will preside over the opening of his
latest venture on Friday (26).
The President also awarded television frequencies without auction to a
private broadcaster strongly critical of Prime Minister Wickremesinghe. The
proprietor of the broadcasting company has been actively cultivating links
with the President, while continuing to take an antagonistic line towards his
Prime Minister.
Leaked manifesto
In each of these presidential calculations, one factor remains constant.
President Sirisenas every political move is determined by the continued
role Mahinda Rajapaksa plays in Sri Lankan politics. As the country gears for
a parliamentary poll, the Rajapaksa campaign machinery is kicking into
gear.
The Mahinda faction is prepared to contest independently of the SLFP. The
faction is ready with a new party and symbol, if elections are announced in
the near future. This week, copies of a proposed Mahinda Rajapaksa
manifesto for the 2015 parliamentary election were leaked, featuring the
slogans A modern state A free nation A harmonious society. The
leaked manifesto features a special message from Mahinda Rajapaksa on
its final page, and takes the current Government to task for financial
mismanagement and squandering the war-victory. It also features a large
section on reconciliation and religious harmony, after research conducted
by the Mahinda faction a few months ago revealed his electoral weaknesses
in minority strongholds.
For President Sirisena, the re-entry of the Rajapaksas into positions of
power with fresh mandates from the people will be a frightening prospect.
Security threats against the President persist and Rajapaksa circles are
buzzing with confidence about Mahinda Rajapaksas eventual ascent to the
presidency by 2016.
Politically, if the former President enters parliament with a significant
majority, he could potentially scuttle the Sirisena administrations reform
agenda and undermine the new Presidents hold over the SLFP.
Electorally, with a majority of the SLFP now backing a Rajapaksa return,
President Sirisena appears strongly fearful that the SLFP faction he leads
will poll third in the parliamentary race, behind the UNP and also the
Mahinda faction of the party.
This will not only be intensely embarrassing for President Sirisena, but it will
also cast doubts upon his mandate and the presidential legacy he is striving
to craft. To prevent the Rajapaksa return at all costs is President Sirisenas
fundamental preoccupation. If abandoning the UNP and reneging on some
of his presidential election pledges is the price he has to pay to prevent

Mahinda Rajapaksas comeback, it is increasingly apparent that he is willing

to make the sacrifice.
Transformation
Slowly but surely then, President Sirisena is making the transformation from
lilywhite statesman to partisan, expedient politician. This should come as
no great shocker.
The executive presidency has a way of corrupting the seemingly
incorruptible. Maithripala Sirisena is a mere mortal. As President, he faces
an existential threat from his predecessor. Exercising his prerogative on
dissolution and the full powers of his office may prove his only hope to
neutralise this threat. But unlike all the other problems facing the so called
100-day Government, the delay in dissolving Parliament and allowing the
current political instability to persist falls squarely on the Presidents
shoulders.
From this there is no escape, as civil society groups and political parties
that strongly supported his candidacy for President take to the streets
demanding that he end the term of the present legislature.
When he decided to run for President, Maithripala Sirisena had a singular
goal. That goal was the defeat of Mahinda Rajapaksa and the dismantling of
his regime. Six months later, Mahinda Rajapaksa remains the Presidents
primary preoccupation, surpassing even the need to enact and implement
far-reaching policy reform that would ultimately strengthen democracy and
create a civic consciousness that would prevent a return to authoritarianism
in the near term.
As the politician that fought and won against the mighty Rajapaksa
juggernaut, it will be a tragedy if Maithripala Sirisena continues to allow
Mahinda Rajapaksa to dictate the agenda during his presidency.

Posted by Thavam