Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Introduction
After a period of slack growth during last few years,
Pakistans economy witnessed higher and broad
based economic growth in outgoing fiscal year
2013-14 accompanied by significant recovery in
industrial sector and moderate growth in services
and agriculture sectors. Broad based economic
recovery, strengthening of macroeconomic stability
and elimination of external account vulnerability are
major achievements of the outgoing fiscal year. The
success includes: picking up in economic growth,
inflation contained at single digit, improvement in
tax collection, reduction in fiscal deficit, better
growth in exports and imports, achievement of GSP
plus status, remarkable improvement in workers
remittances, successful launching of Euro Bond,
auction of long pending 3G and 4G licenses;
significant improvement in countrys foreign
exchange reserves, Rupee strengthened, rise in
foreign direct investment and stock market created
new history.
The present government has introduced a
comprehensive agenda of reforms which is highly
focused on inclusive growth to reinvigorate the
economy, spur growth, maintain price stability,
provide more and decent jobs to the youth and
rebuild the key infrastructure of the economy
through removal of bottlenecks like, energy
shortages, bleedings PSEs and circular debt along
with creating conducive investment climate to boost
exports and tax revenues, and bridge fiscal and
current account deficits. The government has shown
commitment to develop vibrant and competitive
markets in order to accelerate and sustain economic
growth through productivity, competitiveness,
innovation and entrepreneurship.
Government has focused on number of initiatives to
enhance productivity of all sectors of the economy.
For agriculture efforts are being made to provide
better supply of quality seeds including hybrid and
high yielding varieties. Ensure timely availability of
agriculture inputs including fertilizer, pesticides etc.
Credit to agriculture sector reached at Rs.380 billion
compared to Rs.336 billion last year with the growth
of 13.1 percent. Eliminated subsidies which largely
P
Pakistan
Ecoonomic Surveey 2013-14
compared to
t 4.85 percent in last year.
y
Overalll the
commodity producing sector is exxpanded at 3.94
percent as compared
c
to 2.14 percentt last year, which
w
m the anemicc
represents a signnificant turnaround from
grow
wth rate of the
t previouss years. Fig--1 shows ann
overrview of GDP growth over the previo
ous years.
Fig1:GDPGrowth(%)
6
5.50
5.00
5
62
3.6
3.84
4.14
3.70
2.60
3
2
1
0.40
0
200607 200708 200809 20
00910 201011 201112
2 201213 201314
2
2012
3.2
-0.7
2.8
1.4
0.9
1.7
6.7
7.7
1.5
2.0
1.9
2013
3.0
-0.5
1.9
1.5
0.6
2.0
6.5
7.7
2.9
2.8
4.1
2014
3.6
1.2
2.8
1.4
1.7
2.3
6.7
7.5
3.7
3.7
3.6
2015 (P)
3.9
1.5
3.0
1.0
1.6
2.4
6.8
7.3
3.8
3.8
3.6
4.6
-1.5
-2.3
1.1
6.2
7.4
7.8
7.6
6.5
5.1
0.1
3.6
India
Bangladesh
Sri Lanka
Pakistan*
8.5
5.9
3.5
0.4
10.3
6.4
8.0
2.6
6.6
6.5
8.2
3.7
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Iran
Egypt
1.8
-7.1
3.9
4.7
7.4
-2.4
5.9
5.1
8.6
6.3
2.7
1.8
Algeria
1.6
3.6
Morocco
4.8
3.6
Tunisia
3.1
2.9
Nigeria
7.0
8.0
Kenya
2.7
5.8
South Africa
-1.5
3.1
Source: World Economic Outlook (IMF), April 2014.
* : Finance Division, Government of Pakistan
P : Projected.
2.8
5.0
-1.9
7.4
4.4
3.6
2012
5.2
ASEAN
6.3
5.6
6.5
6.8
South Asia
4.7
6.1
6.3
3.8
Middle East
5.8
6.2
-5.6
2.2
Africa
3.3
2.7
3.6
6.6
4.6
2.5
2013
5.4
2014
5.6
2015 (P)
5.7
5.8
4.7
2.9
7.2
5.4
5.2
2.5
6.5
5.8
5.0
3.8
6.5
4.4
5.8
7.3
3.7
5.4
6.0
7.0
4.14
6.4
6.5
6.5
5.1
3.8
0.8
-1.7
2.1
4.1
2.6
1.5
2.3
4.2
3.0
2.3
4.1
2.7
4.5
2.7
6.3
5.6
1.9
4.3
3.9
3.0
7.1
6.3
2.3
4.1
4.9
4.5
7.0
6.3
2.7
and contribute 2.5 percent in the GDP. This subsector of agriculture has witnessed a growth at -3.53
percent against the growth of 6.05 percent last year.
This decline in growth of minor crops is mainly due
to 36.8 percent lower production in gram, 7.8
percent less production of Potatoes, 5.1 percent
decline in production of masoor and 5.4 percent
decrease in other pulses. Moreover it is also
recorded that production of rape& mustard, chilies,
mango, water melon and guava declined by 11.5
percent, 1.4 percent, 1.3 percent, 2.7 percent and 0.9
percent, respectively. The extreme weather condition
and heavy rains in these crops areas were the main
factors responsible for the negative growth of this
subsector as compared to last year.
Cotton Ginning: Pakistan is one of the leading
producers and consumers of cotton in the world
market. Ginning is the primary mechanical process
involved in the processing of cotton. Ginning is the
procedure for separating lint from the seed to cotton.
Cotton Ginning has 2.81 percent contribution in
agriculture sector and 0.6 percent share in GDP of
the country. Cotton Ginning has witnessed a growth
of -1.33 percent against the growth of -2.90 percent
in the previous year due to reduction of the
production of cotton as compared to last year.
Cotton Ginning was included in agriculture sector
after rebasing of National Accounts 2005-06; prior
to this, it was a component of manufacturing sector.
Livestock: Livestock is the most significant
component of agriculture sector, which contributes
55.91 percent of agriculture value addition. It is a
sub-sector of agriculture which is relatively less
volatile as compared to other subsectors. It is a good
source of job creation and do not depend on heavy
mechanical,
energy
and
other
developed
infrastructure and contributing in socio-economic
wellbeing of the rural population at large. Its share
in agriculture is more than combined shares of all
other subsectors of agriculture and contributes 11.8
percent in GDP. Livestock consist of cattle, buffalos,
sheep, goat, camel, horses, asses, mules and poultry
and their products. Scientific and technological
advancements along with evolutionary stages of
growth, the demand for livestock has grown at a
phenomenal pace. The increasing trend in prices of
livestock has provided incentive for greater
production activities in this sub-sector. The
significance of livestock may be acknowledged by
the fact that the majority of people living in rural
areas directly or indirectly depend on the livestock
and dairy sector and is contributing in the wellbeing
of small farmers and the landless rural poor.
10
11
2007-08
0.41
1.81
0.87
2008-09
0.76
-1.15
-0.60
2009-10
0.05
0.71
0.19
2010-11
0.43
0.95
0.34
2011-12
0.79
0.54
0.28
2012-13
0.62
0.29
0.60
2013-14
0.45
1.20
0.74
2.77
4.99
0.75
0.36
1.81
2.58
2.24
3.62
2.51
3.84
2.79
3.7
2.49
4.14
12
P
Pakistan
Ecoonomic Surveey 2013-14
Fig2:SectorralContributio
ontotheGDP
Pgrowth(%P
Points)
1
12
ReealGDP(Fc)
Services
Ind
dustry
Aggriculture
ReealGDP(Fc)
1
10
8
(%)
6
4
2
0
2
200708
200809
200910
G
Growth
h
Contributioon to Real GDP
(Aggregatee Demand Siide Analysiss)
In aggregatte demand consumption,
c
, investmentt and
exports are three main drivers of economic groowth.
Most of thhe economiees have connsumption ass the
largest annd relativelyy smooth componentt of
aggregate demand, thhe other tw
wo componnents
investment and exportss are volatilee as compareed to
consumptioon. In all econnomies of thhe world outpput is
the sum off consumptioon (both privvate and pubblic),
investment (public andd private) annd net exporrts of
goods and services. Pakistans
P
economic growth
mostly reccognized ass consumpttion-led growth
historically.. Pakistani society
s
like other develooping
countries is a consumptiion oriented society, having a
high marginnal propensiity to consuume. As a result
r
private consumption is the major suub-component of
aggregate demand;
d
aggrregate demaand is the suum of
consumptioon, investmeent and net exports (expports
minus impoorts) of the gooods and serrvices.
Demand sidde analysis provides
p
morre comprehennsive
analysis annd insight of
o growth drivers
d
incluuding
consumptioon, investment and expoorts. The prrivate
consumptioon expendituure in nominnal terms reaached
to 80.49 percent of
o GDP, whereas puublic
consumptioon expendituures are 122.00 percennt of
GDP. Totall consumptioon expendituures have reaached
to 92.49 peercent of GD
DP in outgoing fiscal year as
compared to
t 92.14 perrcent of last fiscal year. The
same trend is observedd in data anaalysis in thee real
terms. Totall consumptioon has increaased 0.35 perrcent
of GDP, private
p
consuumption deccreased by 0.69
201011
201112
201213
201314
Table-1.4: Composition
C
o GDP Grow
of
wth
Point Contribution
Flows
20006-07 2007--08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
2
20111-12 2012--13 2013-14
Private Connsumption
3.30
2.69
-0.56
6
1.32
3.37
3.92
1.98
4.622
Public Conssumption
-0.11
-0.09
1.21
1
-0.06
0.00
0.74
1.06
1.399
13
Table-1.4: Composition
C
o GDP Grow
of
wth
Point Contribution
Flows
20006-07 2007--08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
2
20111-12 2012--13 2013-14
Total Consum
mption [C]
3.18
2.60
0.66
6
1.26
3.37
4.66
3.04
6.000
Gross Fixedd Investment
0.48
0.85
-0.70
0
-0.85
-0.98
0.33
0.02
0.066
Change in Stocks
S
0.08
0.03
0.05
5
0.03
0.04
0.06
0.07
0.099
Total Investm
ment [I]
0.56
0.88
-0.66
6
-0.82
-0.94
0.38
0.09
0.155
Exports (Gooods & Serv.)) [X]
0.21
-0.62
-0.43
3
1.90
0.33
-2.05
1.53
-0.177
Imports (Gooods & Serv.)) [M]
-0.88
1.16
-3.26
6
0.73
-0.02
-0.52
0.25
0.577
Net Exports [X-M]
1.09
-1.78
2.83
3
1.17
0.35
-1.54
1.28
-0.744
Aggregate Demand
D
(C+I+X)
3.96
2.86
-0.43
3
2.34
2.77
2.99
4.66
5.988
Domestic Demand
D
(C+I)
3.74
3.48
0.00
0
0.44
2.44
5.04
3.13
6.166
GDP MP
4.83
1.70
2.83
3
1.61
2.79
3.51
4.41
5.411
Source: Pakistan Bureau of
o Statistics
(%)
Fig3:SectoralCo
ontributionto
otheGDPgro
owth(%Pointts)
14.0
0
G
GDPMP
N
NetExports[X
XM]
12.0
0
T
TotalInvestme
ent[I]
10.0
0
T
TotalConsump
ption[C]
8.0
0
G
GDPMP
6.0
0
4.0
0
2.0
0
0.0
0
2.0
0
4.0
0
200607
200708
200809
200910
201011
2
20
01112
201
1213
2013
314
Tax, invvestment and exports nexuss: TIE as perccent of GDP has declined substantially in previous years
y
and thuss
caused lower
l
growth. In order to channelize innvestment in priority
p
sub-ssectors identiffied as potenttial drivers off
growth. Public sectoor investment will be priorritized and atttract private investment too boost business activities,,
which will
w enhance innvestment, expports and tax revenues.
r
14
Social protection framework: The government has number of plans to help the citizens at all level to gain
employment, skill/experience and provide income support.
Rural enterprise development: The aim is to utilize multiple channels including the provincial agriculture extension
services, electronic media and expert advisory services through help-lines to educate and incentivize farmers to
make efficient use of inputs, adopt best available farming techniques, optimize crop selection and maximize their
yield.
Governance, Institutional reforms and Modernization of Public Sector: Institutional reform and democratic
governance will enable an efficient and transparent government which operates under the rule of law and provides
security of life and property to its people. While developing a skilled, motivated and results focused civil service, an
effective regulatory framework and an infrastructure that leverages supporting technology and global best practices is
one of the goal. The Vision aims to take following actions,
Restructuring and/or privatization of selected SOEs aimed at making the public sector more effective
Bureau of Infrastructure Development establishment to coordinate and oversee the program for private sector
participation in infrastructure development and develop financing schemes, acting as single window facilitation for
project financing and mobilizing commercial equity and debt
Establishment of a Pakistan Business and Economic Council, chaired by the Prime Minister, to build confidence of
private sector, with equal membership of public and private sector for guiding the direction of economy, growth
and monitoring performance
All of these proposals will provide a friendly environment to the investors and they can thereby invest with confidence.
Hence, it is expected that the Foreign Direct Investment will increase and with these initiatives, trickledown effect can
be envisaged, such as job creation, increase in productive activities, and increase in per capita income along with
improvement in socio-economic condition of the people at large.
Energy, water and food security: Vision 2025 focusing on the energy, water and food crisis in the country. The
supply side of the economy is mainly suffering by the energy shortfall, which has been hampering the growth in the
recent years. The proposed actions are as follows,
Optimize energy generation mix between oil, gas, hydro, coal, nuclear, solar, wind and bio-masswith reference to
its indigenousness, economics, scalability, risk factors and environmental impact.
Maximize distribution efficiency and cut wasteful losses through investment in infrastructure and effective
enforcement of controls; and ensure access to commercial energy for all sections of the population.
Focus on demand management and conservation to ensure prioritization in allocation, elimination of wasteful use,
incentives to use more energy efficient equipment and appliances, achieve better balance between peak and offpeak hours, etc.
With the availability of electricity along with cheap electricity will reduce the cost of production, making Pakistan more
competitive in the world. Beside energy, government has various plans regarding water conservation, food security and
climate change, which will make the economic growth sustainable.
Private led growth: Vision 2025 opens doors for the private led growth. Privatization and Infrastructure development
are the major initiative in this regard. By private led growth, the people will not only have to rely on jobs but they will
be able to start their own business. The job opportunities will increase and help the country in achieving the economic
growth. The government enterprises will not be the only drivers of economic activity but the private sector will take the
lead.
Developing a competitive Knowledge Economy through Value addition: Vision 2025 envisages fundamental
improvements in competitiveness across the industrial/manufacturing, services and agricultural sectors. The strategy to
achieve competitiveness mainly focus on enterprises across all sectors will be made viable and sustainable without
requiring long-term protection and/or subsidies and these enterprises will be developed to compete successfully in the
regional and global markets. The National Productivity Council (NPC) will be revived under the chairmanship of the
Prime Minister with relevant experienced professional members. Regular capacity and competitiveness audits will be
conducted by the NPC and published in annual competitiveness reports. The knowledge and capacity for the NPC will
be acquired in collaboration with domestic and international leaders in competitiveness.
15
Modernizing Transportation Infrastructure & Greater Regional Connectivity: Efficient and integrated
transportation system will be established that will facilitate the development of a competitive economy. Targets are to
ensure reduction in transportation costs, safety in mobility, effective connectivity between rural areas and markets/urban
centers, inter- provincial high-speed connectivity, integrated road/rail networks between economic hubs (including air,
sea and dry ports) and also high capacity transportation corridors connecting major regional trading partners.
The vision accommodates both the supply and demand side of the economy. All of these initiatives will give a kick start
to the slowing economy by creating an environment conducive for growth. Hence, it is imperative that when these
action plans will be implemented, the output will increase and GDP growth will be accelerated. The Vision 2025 aims
to have an inclusive growth with income equality and these initiatives will help all the citizens.
16
P
Pakistan
Ecoonomic Surveey 2013-14
100.0
100.0
1
100.0
100
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100..0
7.1 to
t 7.3 percennt of the GD
DP over the last 8 years..
The share of thee services seector has inccreased from
m
56.0
0 percent to 58.1 percennt in the sam
me period. Itt
may
y be concluuded that onn the wholle structurall
transsformation has
h remaineed moderatee during thee
perio
od under discussion.
Fig-4: Contribution
C
to GDP
20
00506
201314
4
Otther
Indu
ustries
7.1%
Manufacturing
13.5%
Manufacturing
13.8%
%
OtherIndustries
7.3%
Aggriculture
21.0%
Agriculture
23.0%
Services
56.0%
Services
58.1%
main
n factors, whhich contribuuted in this in
ncrease, mayy
be acceleration
a
i real GDP growth, relaatively lowerr
in
grow
wth in popuulation and tthe appreciaation of Pakk
Rup
pee. Fig-5 shhows the impprovement in per capitaa
inco
ome during thhe last eight years.
Inveestment and
d Savings
Pakiistan is blesssed with vvarying terraains rangingg
from
m snow covvered peakss, fiery desserts, fertilee
mou
untain valleyys and irriggated plains along withh
enjo
oyment of all
a the four seasons. Th
hese factorss
mak
ke Pakistan friendly
fr
to alll types of thee businesses..
Pakiistan welccomes foreeign invesstors withh
com
mprehensive and
a most friendly Investtment Policyy
and regulatory framework. Present government iss
welll aware withh needs of thhe Foreign In
nvestors andd
very
y much suppoortive in thiss regard.
177
Fig5:PerCapittaIncome($)
138
86
201314
1072
1340
201213
1026
1321
201112
1053
1274
201011
980
200910
897
200809
10
000
200708
15
500
5
500
200607
200506
18
P
Pakistan
Ecoonomic Surveey 2013-14
the investm
ment demandd. The foreeign savingss are
needed to fiinance savingg investmentt gap, reflectts the
current accoount deficit in the balannce of paym
ments.
National saavings are reecorded at 12.94 percennt of
GDP in outtgoing fiscal year againstt 13.50 perceent in
last year. Domestic
D
savvings are witnessed
w
at 7.54
percent of GDP in 20013-14 as coompared to 8.33
percent of GDP
G
in the laast year. Nett foreign resoource
inflows aree financing the saving investment gap.
There are two possiblle ways forr improvingg the
savings invvestment gapp. One is thrrough increaasing
savings annd the otther is thhrough decrrease
investment. Present government
g
is making best
efforts to gear
g
up bothh savings annd investmennt to
raise resouurce availabiility for prroductive usse to
create morre employm
ment opporrtunities in the
coun
ntry. Table 1.6
1 shows saaving and in
nvestment ass
perccentage of GDP and Fig-6 indiccates savingg
inveestment gap. It is impportant to mention
m
thatt
during July-Marrch 2013-14 credits to prrivate sectorr
flow
ws has imprroved and iincreased to
o Rs. 335.88
billion against thhe expansionn of Rs. 139
9.8 billion inn
the comparable period last year. This will
w supportt
furth
her private innvestment inn coming mon
nths. Privatee
inveestment recorrded in last yyear was Rs.2
2,168 billionn
and it expandedd to Rs.2,2771 billion fo
or the fiscall
yearr 2013-14. This
T increase in private in
nvestment iss
an indicator
i
thaat investors are showing
g confidencee
on governmentt policies and outlook
k is muchh
optim
mistic, whiich will fuurther impro
ove macro-econ
nomic enviroonment.
TotalInveestment
NationalSSavings
TotalInveestment
NationalSSavings
25
20
15
10
0
200506
200607
2
200708
2008
809
200910
201011
201112
201
1213
201314((P)
19
Workers Remittances
The world has witnessed a surge in international
remittances flow over the last few decades.
Remittances remained a key source of external
resource flows for developing countries, far
exceeding official development assistance and more
stable than private investment flows. According to
Migration and Remittances report 2014 of the World
Bank, Pakistan is ranked on 7th number, in terms of
the largest recipient of officially recorded
remittances in the world. After India Pakistan is the
second largest recipient of remittances in the South
Asian region. Pakistan is also one of the countries
among 20 countries of the world where remittances
cover more than 20 percent of imports and also
remittances are equivalents to more than 30 percent
of exports. The remittances are providing significant
support to the balance of payments and also helping
in stimulating the domestic economy and also
supporting to maintain the foreign exchange reserve
and debt payments. Furthermore, it is also
contributing in reducing unemployment and
improving standard of living of the recipient
households.
The Pakistan Remittances Initiative, which was
launched in 2009, remained a central part of the
governments efforts to encourage inflows from
Pakistani Diaspora. The flow of remittances is free
of cost, documented, secure and efficient. The SBP
resolve is to bring additional remittances through its
PRI scheme through continuous improvement in
payment system, infrastructure, market research,
tapping Pakistani Diaspora as well as strengthening
PRI core team. The government is also aiming to
explore new markets to export its manpower as well
as incentives for the remittances to further enhance
its growth. Increase in remittances is mainly the
result of the higher demand of Pakistani workers in
rest of the world due to worldwide
acknowledgement of the skill, honesty and devotion
to the assigned work of Pakistani workers. An
overview of country wise remittances is presented in
Table 1.7.
08-09
09-10
10-11
11-12
2,068.67 2,334.47
1,199.67 1,521.10
2,670.07 3,687.00
2,597.74 28,48.86
1,306.18 1,495.00
US$ Million
13-14
July-April*
2,186.24
2,027.06
1,946.01
1,798.28
4,104.73
3,806.36
2,750.17
2,522.89
1,607.88
1,527.00
12-13
1,242.49
438.65
750.44
716.30
816.87
1,459.64
430.04
1,023.56
866.49
757.33
1,762.03
458.87
1,251.32
1,090.30
983.39
1,735.87
605.59
1,559.56
1,688.59
1,202.65
1,771.19
876.38
1,917.66
2,038.52
1,237.86
761.98
4,600.12
149.00
5,493.65
176.64
6,451.24
247.66
7,811.43
252.21
354.76
364.79
357.37
8,905.90 11,200.97 13,186.62 13,921.66
355.31
12,894.61
20
21