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A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks,
and commentary can be found HERE.
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February 17, 2010 – Equity Valuations, Then and Now with FDIC data next week
Pivots are balancing the dollar carry trade for US Treasury yields, gold, crude oil, and dollar,
and the Dow Industrial Average. Equity Valuations on March 6, 2009 and Today! Three measures
of stress in the banking system I will be measuring next Tuesday, February 23rd.
The yield on the 10-Year Note is neutral on its weekly chart with my semiannual pivot as a magnet at
3.675. This yield is the line in the sand between risk aversion and Treasury supply / inflation
expectations. My weekly support is 3.845 with my monthly resistance at 3.504.
Comex gold is neutral on its weekly chart with my annual pivot at $1115.2 as a magnet. The reversal-
oriented pattern is influenced by monthly and quarterly pivots at $1093.5 and $1084.9. My semiannual
resistances are $1139.7 and $1186.5.
Nymex crude oil is neutral on its weekly chart with quarterly support at $67.22, the 200-week simple
moving average at $76.20, my annual pivot at $77.05 and monthly resistance at $79.90.
All major equity averages have positive daily charts but with the zone of 21-day and 50-day simple
moving averages as pivots or resistances. For the Dow the 21-day is 10,219 with the 50-day at 10,377.
My first read is the quarter over quarter growth or deterioration in the loan types shown in this Table.
Construction and Development Loans, which is a major component of Commercial Real Estate
declined 8.1% sequentially in the third quarter in 2009. My second read is the year over year growth of
deterioration in these assets. C&D loans were down 19.9% by this measure.
The Great Credit Crunch began at the end of 2007, so I compare asset exposures then versus now.
C&D loans declined 21.7% since The Great Credit Crunch began. Note that Total Assets in the banking
system declined nearly $600 billion in the first three quarters of 2009.
I will be preparing the ValuEngine Quarterly FDIC report including an updated ValuEngine List of
Problem Banks. Go to ValuEngine.com to subscribe.
Send me your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our
products and services visit www.ValuEngine.com
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
Check out the latest Main Street versus Wall Street on Forex TV Live each day at
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Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
www.ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I
have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as
well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the
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issues of my research.